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African Union and G20: Future Geopolitical and Economic Implications

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G20 New Delhi, 2023 African Union and G20

By Professor Maurice Okoli

Johannesburg was the scene for the 15th BRICS — Brazil, China, India, Russia and South Africa — summit held in late August, during which leaders raised the African Union’s permanent seat in the G20. In early September, New Delhi is the scene for the G20 summit to discuss the changing geopolitical situation and global development and most likely to make historic approval of AU’s permanent seat in G20.

South Africa and India are both members of BRICS and are both members of G20. President Cyril Ramaphosa witnessed two new African States (Egypt and Ethiopia) entry into BRICS. On the other hand, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi seeks admission for the African Union (an organization of 54 member states) into G20.

As the BRICS leaders converged in Johannesburg, the consensus was to undertake collective work towards a multipolar world. Taking this muscular step in the current geopolitical changes means opening a new chapter in human history. It is a strong resolve by nations of the global south represented by the vast majority of the world population to end many years of colonialism and neocolonialism forever and to establish a new world order and the political, economic and cultural system that encourages equitable development of all nations, elimination of poverty and creation of decent living for all.

In New Delhi, however, the summit chorus will have a different rhythm, as the G20 members are wealthy nations mostly from the Global North. These are also well-represented in all international organizations and well-structured institutions, including the World Bank (WB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). One distinctive feature here is that the G20 brings together both rich and poor nations, and of India a key member of both clubs.

Noticeably, there are wide policy differences: while BRICS is considered as evolving into some geopolitical rival to the Global North, some BRICS members hold confrontational opinions and thoughts. Emerging nations are simply “looking for alternatives, not replacements” of any system; despite the fact that some differences in policy approach, the desire for BRICS expansion also showed the demand for a change.

For this discussion, it is necessary to note two distinctive features here; the first is that G20 plays an important role in shaping and strengthening global architecture and governance on all major international economic issues.

The second is that BRICS expansion was “more about progressive efforts to find a system that will help to solve the problem of poverty, hunger, and the underdevelopment of billions of people in the developing countries demonstrated by the horrendous migrant crisis where thousands of desperate people are assembling at national borders like between the US and Mexico or be it along the Mediterranean which has already become a mass grave for migrants) of showing that developing countries are heartily rallying to their side against Western hegemony rather than concrete plans to work together.

For African States, BRICS serves as an alternative avenue to explore its support against further economic exploitation and control interruption in their internal affairs in the continent and to assert their right to process their resources and produce value-added goods as means of becoming middle-income societies in the foreseeable future through high technology and industrialization largely ignoring the fact that much rather depends on their policies and approach as well as system of governance.

AU on the Summit Agenda

As the BRICS group grows, the G20 will also expand in numerical strength. The pendulum is noticeably turning; global leaders have already supported the appeal for admission of the African Union (AU) into the G20. The G20’s three-day conference this September 9-10 in New Delhi, India, will definitely push AU’s ascension with a permanent seat in the powerful group, making an indelible milestone history for both AU and G20.

While witnessing this historical moment, the greatest questions for politicians, academics, the business community, and the general public are the strategic significance and geopolitical implications for the African Union as a continental organization and for Africa.

Long before the summit, Modi said India, as a G20 host, would be inclusive and invited the African Union to become a permanent member. The concern was similar during the time of forming the Non-Alignment Movement (NAM), which until today embraces in its entirety the Global South. The NAM meets regularly to deliberate on pertinent issues affecting its members.

Modi underlined India’s role as the G20 host this year and hinted that it would focus on highlighting the concerns of the developing world, and has unreservedly proposed the African Union to become permanent members of the forum. “We have a vision of inclusiveness, and with that vision, we have invited the African Union to become permanent members of the G20,” Modi said as he addressed the Business 20 Summit in New Delhi.

The G20 is an industry event and part of the summit of the G20 leading rich and developing nations. Over three days, industry and policy leaders from around the world have discussed themes like building resilient supply chains, digital transformation, debt distress facing developing countries and how to advance on climate change goals. Their recommendations will be shared with the G20 governments, according to the organizers.

A key part of that strategy is bringing the African Union into the G20 fold, analysts say. “When India assumed the G20 presidency last December, we were acutely conscious that most of the Global South would not be at the table when we meet,” said External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar. “This mattered very much because the really urgent problems are those faced by them. … And India, itself so much a part of the Global South, could not stand by and let that happen.”

He said the G20 has so far deliberated on rising debt, sustainable development, climate action and food security, among other issues that affect low to middle-income countries. “The core mandate of the G20 is to promote economic growth and development. This cannot advance if the crucial concerns of the Global South are not addressed,” Jaishankar added.

During the previous summit, G20 nations agreed to work on reforms to the World Trade Organization; at the Rajasthan meeting, for instance, G20 members agreed to improve WTO functioning and strengthen trust in the multilateral trading system. The G20 takes in nations conducting over 75% of global trade and is presently functioning under the Indian presidency.

Proposed reforms would include having a well-functioning Dispute Settlement System accessible to all members by 2024, as per the official statement. Disputes over trade are largely persistent. India’s trade deficit with China is the highest of any country and stood at $101.28 billion in 2022, according to official data. Now, there are similar arguments and concerns over China’s trade with Africa.

Global Leaders Call for AU’s Membership

At the same time, world leaders have overwhelmingly declared support and viewed it in a broader context that the African Union has a permanent representation at G20. As part of the priority call for some structural reforms, the African Union’s permanent membership will top the agenda, which Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has proposed granting at the upcoming summit in New Delhi.

Interestingly, the African Union’s proposed ascension unto G20 has unflinching support from many leaders, at least over the past few years. It includes the United States, Europe, China, India and Russia.

President Joe Biden, during the US-Africa Leaders’ Summit held mid-December 2022, described it as a platform for 49 African leaders + the African Union to jointly pitch their collective expectations and aspirations in the emerging new global world.

Scanning through the discussions, what is probably appealing is the United States’ desire towards (re)defining its relationship with Africa on African terms. In addition, Biden has urged that the African Union be given a permanent seat in the G20 – an influential collection of the strongest economies in the world. South Africa is the only member of the continent. Notwithstanding any criticisms, Biden has thrown his backing behind the African Union, securing a permanent membership in G20, which will enhance economic ties in its own right with Africa.

As Chair of the African Union (2022 – 2023), Senegalese President, Macky Sall, asserted that Africa’s future prosperity is linked to the global economic system; the African Union, on behalf of Africa, uses its leadership and geo-strategic position to optimize necessary links suitable for economic development, industrialization and promoting trade with the continent, and for the next generations.

Sall emphasized several reasons, such as the necessity of adopting fundamental policy leveraging the industrialized poles rather than partitioning the world, describing this step as a smart decision in the age of multi-polarity. Due to the geopolitical importance of the United States, African nations need not jettison their cooperative relations but make strong calls for restructuring and reforms to lobby for long-term strategic and inclusive relations.

Early April 2023, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed an order to endorse Russia’s updated foreign policy concept, which was compiled and presented by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The new concept was updated to incorporate additional measures and redefine parameters of necessary actions in relation to the United States, Western and European confrontation and determine important roles in the emerging multipolar world by the Russian Federation. In the same document, and even long before its adoption, Russia has consistently been advocating for United Nations reforms, calling for broadening the representation of Africa and in other similar foreign organizations, including the G20.

Without mincing words, Putin said: “Russia proactively supported the initiative to grant the African Union membership in the Group of 20. It is the right decision reflecting the reality and the balance of power in today’s world.” In addition to that, Moscow supports the legitimate aspiration of African States to pursue their own independent policy to decide on their own future without imposed ‘assistance’ by third parties.

President of the People’s Republic of China, Xi Jinping, during the China-Africa Leaders’ Dialogue held August 24 in Johannesburg, rained praises that Africa has made big strides on the path of independence, seeking strength through unity and integration. With steady progress under Agenda 2063 of the African Union (AU), the official launch of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), and growing coordination among the sub-regional groups, Africa is becoming an important pole with global influence.

Xi Jinping also said that “China will continue to support Africa in speaking with one voice on international affairs and continuously elevating its international standing. China will work actively at the G20 summit to support the AU’s full membership in the group. China supports making special arrangements on the U.N. Security Council reform to meet Africa’s aspiration as a priority.”

The new historic galloping convergence between G20 and the African Union really requires close attention since it will definitely reshape the growing relations, which is most important in the emerging multipolar world. At least the African side of it largely boils down to the acceptance speeches, the main long-term objectives and the primacy of conceptual ideas of the President of Comoros Islands and Chairperson of the African Union (2023 – 2024), Azali Assoumani, Chairman of African Union Commission, Moussa Faki Mahamat, will definitely remain for future generations.

Among high dignitaries also in attendance to witness AU’s ascendency into G20 are Egyptian President and 2023 Chairperson of NEPAD, Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, and Nigerian President, Bola Ahmed Tinubu. Director-General of the World Health Organization, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus from Ethiopia, and Director-General of the World Trade Organization, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala from Nigeria.

By joining G20 this September 2023, the AU, with a permanent seat, will now have the explicit, solid voice to make cases on behalf of Africa, especially in this crucial time of political and economic reconfiguration. The processes could present, to some extent, complexities and contradictions.

Nevertheless, in view of the substantial expertise accumulated down the years, the next logical step is to foster dialogue and exchange experience, with the aim of optimizing all aspects of integration processes, including the political, economic and cultural spheres and collaborating on the widest possible range of external issues, at the forefront of integrating with G20.

It primarily highlights the fulfilment of the promise promoted widely at conferences and summits and further re-enforces the necessity for a multifaceted partnership with Africa by the G20. It is one step, if not a big leap forward from mere intentions, diplomatic niceties, and rhetoric previously expressed to concrete deeds making Africa more visible in G20. It has many interpretations, though, depending on diverse perspectives, politics, economy and social and cultural.

Importance of B20 Business Platform

On its website, India’s G20 says Nigerian Tony Elumelu, Chairman of Heirs Holdings, is named to co-chair the Business 20 (B20) India Action Council focusing on African economic integration. Established in 2010 within the G20, it comprises corporate business enterprises and organizations and serves as the official platform for dialogue between the G20 and the global business community.

Africa is undoubtedly facing greater multifaceted challenges, and these will definitely continue in the near future, so it implies that the B20 has a pivotal role and a unified voice in uniting global business leaders to provide their perspectives on matters concerning global economic and trade governance and determine its slice for Africa.

With the global attention turning to Africa, this also underscores the ambitious endeavour of African economies toward achieving continent-wide economic integration. It emphasizes the need for the B20 to unite and provide substantial support in facilitating the success of this integration process, ultimately contributing to African economic development.

Without overestimating its importance, this platform has a meaningful advantage for Africa and beyond. By facilitating increased business participation in Africa, international cooperation in this realm will create an enabling environment conducive to inclusive growth.

G20 – Economic Implications for Africa

The African Union’s strategic framework Agenda 2063 highlights the importance of preserving African values and unity, and Pan-Africanism.

As we expect in coming years, AU has to use its G20 membership – a qualitatively new status – for the development of high-tech and export-oriented industries in the sector. It has laid the groundwork for expanding areas of collaboration and launching ambitious long-term projects rather than engaging in geopolitical games.

The basic question here is what needs to be done to bring about a substantial improvement in collaboration between G20 and the 54-member African Union. The new global challenge is not only lining up for or in search of new funding but rather completely new mindsets about economic development paradigm shift. Today, Africa is one of the most promising and fastest-growing regions of the world, with leading powers actively competing with one another.

Seemingly, the accelerated economic integration processes have become an overarching trend throughout the world. Therefore, the AU has to critically revitalize this economic integration with the G20 to provide new perspectives on crucial projects related to infrastructure, logistics, energy, trade, agricultural and industrial development, digitalization, migration policy, and employment.

At first, since its creation, G20’s primary tasks included supporting the economic development of the Global South, but it has, over these years and to a considerable extent, distanced from its initial driven visions, promoting a more inequitable distribution of resources and supporting largely a unipolar sort of world. It is, therefore, necessary to use the platform to think of building an alternative mechanism for international cooperation with a focus on the developing world.

Final Hope for Africa

With the current situation, G20 is now only a formidable alliance that fosters its members. The majority of developing nations, mainly located in the south, including Africa, express growing frustration over outdated structures of global governance and under-representation in many international organizations that no longer reflect the realities of the 21st century. Hence, one of the important questions taking place at the summit is seeking collaboration between G20 and the African Union.

Judging from the historical landmark, the AU has the potential, despite the widespread political vulnerabilities, to make an invaluable contribution to developing and tackling current economic challenges facing Africa, with its estimated 1.4 billion people, by collaborating and partnering through G20. After all, the G20 members account for nearly 85% of the global Gross Domestic Product (GDP), have bilateral and multilateral relations, and in addition, multiple partnerships with Africa.

By simple definition, the G20 includes the world’s 19 wealthiest nations plus the European Union. With the African Union, it becomes G21 or G20+African Union. The 54-member AU was created in May 1963 and is now experiencing dynamic political changes in the landscape. It has unique stipulated models of transforming the continent – incorporated into what is popularly referred to as the AU Agenda 2063.

Professor Maurice Okoli is a fellow at the Institute for African Studies and the Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences. He is also a fellow at the North-Eastern Federal University of Russia. He is an expert at the Roscongress Foundation and the Valdai Discussion Club.

As an academic researcher and economist with a keen interest in current geopolitical changes and the emerging world order, Maurice Okoli frequently contributes articles for publication in reputable media portals on different aspects of the interconnection between developing and developed countries, particularly in Asia, Africa and Europe. With comments and suggestions, he can be reached via email: markolconsult (at) gmail (dot) com

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Why Creativity is the New Infrastructure for Challenging the Social Order

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Professor Myriam Sidíbe

By Professor Myriam Sidíbe

Awards season this year was a celebration of Black creativity and cinema. Sinners directed by Ryan Coogler, garnered a historic 16 nominations, ultimately winning four Oscars. This is a film critics said would never land, which narrates an episode of Black history that had previously been diminished and, at some points, erased.

Watching the celebration of this film, following a legacy of storytelling dominated by the global north and leading to protests like #OscarsSoWhite, I felt a shift. A movement, growing louder each day and nowhere more evident than on the African continent. Here, an energetic youth—representing one-quarter of the world’s population—are using creativity to renegotiate their relationship with the rest of the world and challenge the social norms affecting their communities.

The Academy Awards held last month saw African cinema represented in the International Feature Film category by entries including South Africa’s The Heart Is a Muscle, Morocco’s Calle Málaga, Egypt’s Happy Birthday, Senegal’s Demba, and Tunisia’s The Voice of Hind Rajab.

Despite its subject matter, Wanuri Kahiu’s Rafiki, broke the silence and secrecy around LGBTQ love stories. In Kenya, where same sex relationships are illegal and loudly abhorred, Rafiki played to sold-out cinemas in the country’s capital, Nairobi, showing an appetite for home-grown creative content that challenges the status quo.

This was well exemplified at this year’s World Economic Forum in Davos when alcoholic beverages firm, AB InBev convened a group of creative changemakers and unlikely allies from the private sector to explore new ways to collaborate and apply creativity to issues of social justice and the environment.

In South Africa, AB inBev promotes moderation and addresses alcohol-related gender-based violence by partnering with filmmakers to create content depicting positive behaviours around alcohol. This strategy is revolutionising the way brands create social value and serve society.

For brands, the African creative economy represents a significant opportunity. By 2030, 10 per cent of global creative goods are predicted to come from Africa. By 2050, one in four people globally will be African, and one in three of the world’s youth will be from the continent.

Valued at over USD4 trillion globally (with significant growth in Africa), these industries—spanning music, film, fashion, and digital arts—offer vital opportunities for youth, surpassing traditional sectors in youth engagement.

Already, cultural and creative industries employ more 19–29-year-olds than any other sector globally. This collection of allies in Davos understood that “business as usual” is not enough to succeed in Africa; it must be on terms set by young African creatives with societal and economic benefits.

The key question for brands is: how do we work together to harness and support this potential? The answer is simple. Brands need courage to invest in possibilities where others see risk; wisdom to partner with those others overlook; and finally, tenacity – to match an African youth that is not waiting but forging its own path.

As the energy of the creative sector continues to gain momentum, I am left wondering: which brands will be smart enough to get involved in our movement, and who has what it takes to thrive in this new world?

Professor Sidíbe, who lives in Nairobi, is the Chief Mission Officer of Brands on a Mission and Author of Brands on a Mission: How to Achieve Social Impact and Business Growth Through Purpose.

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Why President Tinubu Must End Retirement Age Disparity Between Medical and Veterinary Doctors Now

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Tinubu Türkiye

By James Ezema

To argue that Nigeria cannot afford policy inconsistencies that weaken its already fragile public health architecture is not an exaggeration. The current disparity in retirement age between medical doctors and veterinary professionals is one such inconsistency—one that demands urgent correction, not bureaucratic delay.

The Federal Government’s decision to approve a 65-year retirement age for selected health professionals was, in principle, commendable. It acknowledged the need to retain scarce expertise within a critical sector. However, by excluding veterinary doctors and veterinary para-professionals—whether explicitly or by omission—the policy has created a dangerous gap that undermines both equity and national health security.

This is not merely a professional grievance; it is a structural flaw with far-reaching consequences.

At the heart of the issue lies a contradiction the government cannot ignore. For decades, Nigeria has maintained a parity framework that places medical and veterinary doctors on equivalent footing in terms of salary structures and conditions of service. The Consolidated Medical Salary Structure (CONMESS) framework recognizes both professions as integral components of the broader health ecosystem. Yet, when it comes to retirement policy, that parity has been abruptly set aside.

This inconsistency is indefensible.

Veterinary professionals are not peripheral actors in the health sector—they are central to it. In an era defined by zoonotic threats, where the majority of emerging infectious diseases originate from animals, excluding veterinarians from extended service retention is not only unfair but strategically reckless.

Nigeria has formally embraced the One Health approach, which integrates human, animal, and environmental health systems. But policy must align with principle. It is contradictory to adopt One Health in theory while sidelining a core component of that framework in practice.

Veterinarians are at the frontline of disease surveillance, outbreak prevention, and biosecurity. They play critical roles in managing threats such as anthrax, rabies, avian influenza, Lassa fever, and other zoonotic diseases that pose direct risks to human populations. Their contribution to safeguarding the nation’s livestock—estimated in the hundreds of millions—is equally vital to food security and economic stability.

Yet, at a time when their relevance has never been greater, policy is forcing them out prematurely.

The workforce realities make this situation even more alarming. Nigeria is already grappling with a severe shortage of veterinary professionals. In some states, only a handful of veterinarians are available, while several local government areas have no veterinary presence at all. Compelling experienced professionals to retire at 60, while their medical counterparts remain in service until 65, will only deepen this crisis.

This is not a theoretical concern—it is an imminent risk.

The case for inclusion has already been made, clearly and responsibly, by the Nigerian Veterinary Medical Association and the Federal Ministry of Livestock Development. Their position is grounded in logic, policy precedent, and national interest. They are not seeking special treatment; they are demanding consistency.

The current circular, which limits the 65-year retirement age to clinical professionals in Federal Tertiary Hospitals and excludes those in mainstream civil service structures, is both administratively narrow and strategically flawed. It fails to account for the unique institutional placement of veterinary professionals, who operate largely outside hospital settings but are no less critical to national health outcomes.

Policy must reflect function, not merely location.

This is where decisive leadership becomes imperative. The responsibility now rests squarely with Bola Ahmed Tinubu to address this imbalance and restore coherence to Nigeria’s health and civil service policies.

A clear directive from the President to the Office of the Head of the Civil Service of the Federation can correct this anomaly. Such a directive should ensure that veterinary doctors and veterinary para-professionals are fully integrated into the 65-year retirement framework, in line with existing parity policies and the realities of modern public health.

Anything less would signal a troubling disregard for a sector that plays a quiet but indispensable role in national stability.

This is not just about fairness—it is about foresight. Public health security is interconnected, and weakening one component inevitably weakens the entire system.

Nigeria stands at a critical juncture, confronted by complex health, food security, and economic challenges. Retaining experienced veterinary professionals is not optional; it is essential.

The disparity must end—and it must end now.

Comrade James Ezema is a journalist, political strategist, and public affairs analyst. He is the National President of the Association of Bloggers and Journalists Against Fake News (ABJFN), National Vice-President (Investigation) of the Nigerian Guild of Investigative Journalists (NGIJ), and President/National Coordinator of the Not Too Young To Perform (NTYTP), a national leadership development advocacy group. He can be reached via email: [email protected] or WhatsApp: +234 8035823617.

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N4.65 trillion in the Vault, but is the Real Economy Locked Out?

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CBN Gov & new Bank logo

By Blaise Udunze

Following the successful conclusion of the banking sector recapitalisation programme initiated in March 2024 by the Central Bank of Nigeria, the industry has raised N4.65 trillion. No doubt, this marks a significant milestone for the nation’s financial system as the exercise attracted both domestic and foreign investors, strengthened capital buffers, and reinforced regulatory confidence in the banking sector. By all prudential measures, once again, it will be said without doubt that it is a success story.

Looking at this feat closely and when weighed more critically, a more consequential question emerges, one that will ultimately determine whether this achievement becomes a genuine turning point or merely another financial milestone. Will a stronger banking sector finally translate into a more productive Nigerian economy, or will it be locked out?

This question sits at the heart of Nigeria’s long-standing economic contradiction, seeing a relatively sophisticated financial system coexisting with weak industrial output, low productivity, and persistent dependence on imports truly reflects an ironic situation. The fact remains that recapitalisation, by design, is meant to strengthen banks, enhancing their ability to absorb shocks, manage risks and support economic growth. According to the apex bank, the programme has improved capital adequacy ratios, enhanced asset quality, and reinforced financial stability. Under the leadership of Olayemi Cardoso, there has also been a shift toward stricter risk-based supervision and a phased exit from regulatory forbearance.

These are necessary reforms. A stable banking system is a prerequisite for economic development. However, the truth be told, stability alone is not sufficient because the real test of recapitalisation lies not in stronger balance sheets, but in how effectively banks channel capital into productive economic activity, sectors that create jobs, expand output and drive exports. Without this transition, recapitalisation risks becoming an exercise in financial strengthening without economic transformation.

Encouragingly, early signals from industry experts suggest that the next phase of banking reform may begin to address this long-standing gap. Analysts and practitioners are increasingly pointing to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) as a key destination for recapitalisation inflows, which is a fact beyond doubt. Given that SMEs account for over 70 per cent of registered businesses in Nigeria, the logic is compelling. With great expectation, as has been practicalised and established in other economies, a shift in credit allocation toward this segment could unlock job creation, stimulate domestic production, and deepen economic resilience. Yet, this expectation must be balanced with reality. Historically, and of huge concern, SMEs have received only a marginal share of total bank credit, often due to perceived risk, lack of collateral, and weak credit infrastructure.

Indeed, Nigeria’s broader financial intermediation challenge remains stark. Even as the giant of Africa, private sector credit stands at roughly 17 per cent of GDP, and this is far below the sub-Saharan African average, while SMEs receive barely 1 per cent of total bank lending despite contributing about half of GDP and the vast majority of employment. These figures underscore the structural disconnect between the banking system and the real economy. Recapitalisation, therefore, must be judged not only by the strength of banks but by whether it meaningfully improves this imbalance.

Nigeria’s economic challenge is not merely one of capital scarcity; it is fundamentally a problem of low productivity. Manufacturing continues to operate far below capacity, agriculture remains largely subsistence-driven, and industrial output contributes only modestly to GDP. Despite decades of banking sector expansion, credit to the real sector has remained limited relative to the size of the economy. Instead, banks have often gravitated toward safer and more profitable avenues such as government securities, treasury instruments, and short-term trading opportunities.

This is not irrational. It reflects a rational response to risk, policy signals, and market realities. However, it has created a structural imbalance in which capital circulates within the financial system without sufficiently reaching the productive economy. The result is a pattern where financial sector growth outpaces real sector development, a phenomenon widely described as financialisation without productivity gains.

At the centre of this challenge is the issue of credit allocation. A recapitalised banking sector, strengthened by new capital and improved buffers, should theoretically expand lending. But this is, contrarily, because the more important question is where that lending will go. Will Nigerian banks extend long-term credit to manufacturers, finance agro-processing and value chains, and support scalable SMEs, or will they continue to concentrate on low-risk government debt, prioritise foreign exchange-related gains, and maintain conservative lending practices in the face of macroeconomic uncertainty? Some of these structural questions call for immediate answers from policymakers.

Some industry voices are optimistic that the expanded capital base will translate into a broader loan book, increased investment in higher-risk sectors, and improved product offerings for depositors; this is not in doubt. There are also expectations that banks will scale operations across the continent, leveraging stronger balance sheets to expand their regional footprint. Yes, they are expected, but one thing that must be made known is that optimism alone does not guarantee transformation. The fact is that without deliberate incentives and structural reforms, capital may continue to flow toward low-risk assets rather than high-impact sectors.

Beyond lending, experts are also calling for a shift in how banking success is measured. The next phase of reform, according to the experts in their arguments, must move from capital thresholds to customer outcomes. This includes stronger consumer protection frameworks, real-time complaint management systems and more transparent regulatory oversight. A more technologically driven supervisory model, one that allows regulators to monitor customer experiences and detect systemic risks early, could play a critical role in strengthening trust and accountability within the system.

This dimension is often overlooked but deeply significant. A banking system that is well-capitalised but unresponsive to customer needs risks undermining public confidence. True financial development is not only about capital strength but also about accessibility, fairness, and service quality. Nigerians must feel the impact of recapitalisation not just in improved financial ratios, but in better banking experiences, more inclusive services, and greater economic opportunity.

The recapitalisation exercise has also attracted notable foreign participation, signalling confidence in Nigeria’s banking sector. However, confidence in banks does not necessarily translate into confidence in the broader economy. The truth is that foreign investors are typically drawn to strong regulatory frameworks, attractive returns, and market liquidity, though the facts are that these factors make Nigerian banks appealing financial assets; it must be made explicitly clear that they do not automatically reflect confidence in the country’s industrial base or productivity potential.

This distinction is critical. An economy can attract capital into its financial sector while still struggling to attract investment into productive sectors. When this happens, growth becomes financially driven rather than fundamentally anchored. The risk, therefore, is that recapitalisation could deepen Nigeria’s financial markets, but what benefits or gains when banks become stronger or liquid without addressing the structural weaknesses of the real economy.

It is clear and explicit that the current policy direction of the CBN reflects a strong emphasis on stability, with tightened supervision, improved transparency, and stricter prudential standards. These measures are necessary, particularly in a volatile global environment. However, there is an emerging concern that stability may be taking precedence over growth stimulation, which should also be a focal point for every economy, of which Nigeria should not be left out of the equation.  Central banks in emerging markets often face a delicate balancing act, and this is putting too much focus on stability, which can constrain credit expansion, while too much emphasis on growth can undermine financial discipline, as this calls for a balance.

In Nigeria’s case, the question is whether sufficient mechanisms exist to align banking sector incentives with national productivity goals. Are there enough incentives to encourage long-term lending, sector-specific financing, and innovation in credit delivery? Or does the current framework inadvertently reward risk aversion and short-term profitability?

Over the past two decades, it has been a herculean experience as Nigeria’s economic trajectory suggests a growing disconnect between the financial sector and the real economy. Banks have become larger, more sophisticated and more profitable, yet the irony is that the broader economy continues to struggle with high unemployment, low industrial output, and limited export diversification. This divergence reflects the structural risk of financialization, a condition in which financial activities expand without a corresponding increase in real economic productivity.

If not carefully managed, recapitalisation could reinforce this trend. With more capital at their disposal, banks may simply scale existing business models, expanding financial activities that generate returns without contributing meaningfully to production. The point is that this is not solely a failure of the banking sector; it is a systemic issue shaped by policy design, regulatory priorities, and market incentives, which needs the urgent attention of policymakers.

Meanwhile, for recapitalisation to achieve its intended purpose and truly work, it must be accompanied by a deliberate shift or intentional policy change from capital accumulation to productivity enhancement and the economy to produce more goods and services efficiently. This begins with creating stronger incentives for real sector lending with differentiated capital requirements based on sector exposure, credit guarantees for high-impact industries, and interest rate support for priority sectors, which can encourage banks to channel funds into productive areas, and this must be driven and implemented by the apex bank to harness the gains of recapitalisation.

This transformative process is not only saddled with the CBN, but the Development finance institutions also have a critical role to play in de-risking long-term investments, making it easier for commercial banks to participate in financing projects that drive economic growth. At the same time, one of the missing pieces that must be taken into cognisance is that regulatory frameworks should discourage excessive concentration in risk-free assets. No doubt, banks thrive in profitability, as government securities remain important; overreliance on them can crowd out private sector credit and limit economic expansion.

Innovation in financial products is equally essential. Traditional lending models often fail to meet the needs of SMEs and emerging industries, as this has continued to hinder growth. Banks must explore new approaches, including digital lending platforms, supply chain financing, and blended finance solutions that can unlock new growth opportunities, while they extend their tentacles by saturating the retail space just like fintech.

Accountability must also be embedded in the system. One fact is that if recapitalisation is justified as a tool for economic growth, then its outcomes and gains must be measurable and not obscure. Increased credit to productive sectors, higher industrial output and job creation should serve as key indicators of success. Without such metrics, the exercise risks being judged solely by financial indicators rather than its real economic impact.

The completion of the recapitalisation programme represents more than a regulatory achievement; it is a defining moment for Nigeria’s economic future. The country now has a banking sector that is better capitalised, more resilient, and more attractive to investors. These are important gains, but they are not ends in themselves.

The ultimate objective is to build an economy that is productive, diversified, and inclusive. Achieving this requires more than strong banks; it requires banks that actively power economic transformation.

The N4.65 trillion recapitalisation is a significant step forward. It strengthens the foundation of Nigeria’s financial system and enhances its capacity to support growth. However, capacity alone is not enough and truly not enough if the gains of recapitalisation are to be harnessed to the latter. What matters now is how that capacity is deployed.

Some of the critical questions for urgent attention are as follows: Will banks rise to the challenge of financing Nigeria’s productive sectors, particularly SMEs that form the backbone of the economy? Will policymakers create the right incentives to ensure credit flows where it is most needed? Will the financial system evolve from a focus on profitability to a broader commitment to the economic purpose of fostering a more productive Nigerian economy and the $1 trillion target?

The above questions are relevant because they will determine whether recapitalisation becomes a catalyst for change or a missed opportunity if not taken into cognisance. A well-capitalised banking sector is not the destination; it is the starting point. The real journey lies in building an economy where capital works, productivity rises, and growth becomes both sustainable and inclusive.

Blaise, a journalist and PR professional, writes from Lagos and can be reached via: [email protected]

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