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Bridging Africa’s Economic Horizons in 2025: Broader Strategic Perspectives

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Professor Maurice Okoli

By Professor Maurice Okoli

African continent to a very great degree is rich in natural resources encompassing a wide range of both renewable and non-renewable assets. Africa is home to some 30 per cent of the world’s minerals, eight per cent of the world’s natural gas and 12 per cent of the world’s oil reserves. The continent has 40 per cent of the world’s gold and up to 90 per cent of its chromium and platinum.

The largest reserves of cobalt, diamond and uranium in the world are in Africa. It holds 65 per cent of the world’s arable land and 10 per cent of the planet’s internal renewable freshwater source.

For decades, Africa with its vast untapped natural resources has been the world’s geographical region of attention and priority, attracting various global players from all over the world for economic and political engagement.

In a quick assessment, China has emerged as the most powerful player with its geopolitical clout and leadership in fostering multifaceted economic growth. These can be interpreted differently and from different perspectives, and their unequivocal implications are also varied in terms of the current Africa’s transformations and future directions.

For Africa’s future pathway, the year 2025 could perhaps be set as another distinctive new chapter of strategic qualitative development and push for significant growth. The conditions for this expected growth could be linked to the fact that the continental organization African Union will install a new leadership in February 2025, South Africa chairs the G20, Commonwealth Secretariat and World Trade Organization are headed by two African women, a Ghanaian and a Nigerian citizen.

These resounding organizational features, at least, make 2025 an African year to facilitate investment and economic development opportunities, and through wide multilateral collaborations, both external investors and stakeholders, for remarkable changes.

(i) Kenya’s AUC leadership:

As well known, four candidates are slated for the February 2025 polls. Raila Odinga will face off with Djibouti’s Mohamoud Youssouf, Anil Gayan (Mauritius) and Richard Randriamandrato (Madagascar) for the African Union Commission chairmanship in the race to succeed the outgoing chairman Moussa Faki of Chad.

The latest development monitored for this article explicitly showed that Kenya’s candidate for the Africa Union Commission chairmanship Raila Odinga, highlighted his priorities and strategies to include enhancing intra-African trade by establishing a common market, implementing a broader economic transformation, strengthening regional integration and cooperation, and peace and security.

Undoubtedly, the African Union (AU) is a critical institution for promoting unity, peace, and development across the continent. However, there is a growing consensus that it requires reforms to increase its effectiveness, efficiency, and relevance in addressing Africa’s challenges. Here are reasons why reforms are necessary:

1. Structural and Institutional Weaknesses: The AU has been criticized for its slow decision-making processes and lack of streamlined operations. The relationship between the AU and Regional Economic Communities (RECs) is often unclear, leading to duplication of efforts and fragmented initiatives.

2. Financial Dependence: Over 60% of the AU’s budget comes from external donors, raising concerns about the organization’s independence and ability to prioritize African-led solutions. Worse, many member states have unsuccessfully been in a position to meet promptly their financial obligations, hindering the AU’s ability to execute its programs effectively. This is most often reflected in the limited success of peacekeeping: Despite efforts, the AU has struggled to resolve protracted conflicts in regions like the Sahel, Somalia, and the Great Lakes.

3. Geopolitical and Global Challenges: Adapting to a changing world, with shifts in global power dynamics, the AU must reform to ensure Africa’s interests are adequately represented on the global stage.

4. Lack of Accountability and Governance: There have been concerns over deep-seated corruption. Internal mismanagement and corruption have undermined the credibility of the AU. There is a need for stronger accountability mechanisms to ensure compliance with AU protocols and charters by member states.

Raila Odinga’s tremendous political experience and pan-African vision unreservedly underscored the unwavering commitment to reforms as potential steps to advance the basic objectives of uplifting the economic status of the continent under the banner “Africa We Want” incorporated into the Agenda 2063.

Kagame Report (2017): Spearheaded by Rwandan President Paul Kagame, this initiative proposed actionable reforms to address structural inefficiencies and financial sustainability. Efforts to reduce the number of AU departments and improve coordination among stakeholders. Reforming the African Union is essential for building a stronger, more unified Africa capable of addressing its internal challenges and asserting its position on the global stage.

As frequently reiterated, Africa with its huge human and natural resources can take its rightful position in the current 21st century in the world. But for the realization of this, Africa still has to coordinate with the Commonwealth Secretariat, WTO, G20 and BRICS in promoting industrialization, supporting manufacturing, and enhancing innovation through investments in education, technology, healthcare, affordable energy and skills development. These invariantly fall within the Africa’s Agenda 2063.

(ii) South Africa’s G20 chairmanship: South Africa is now the biggest economy in Africa, with a GDP of $373 billion in 2024. (WorldStatistics) In addition to its economic prominence in Africa, South Africa is a staunch member of BRICS+ (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa), an informal association joined by Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates.

On one hand, it is important to mention here the role of South Africa as it takes the chairmanship of the Group of 20 (G20) in 2025. It is an intergovernmental forum comprising 19 sovereign countries, the European Union (EU), and the African Union (AU). In 2023, during its summit, the African Union joined as its 21st member and was officially represented at the 2024 G20 summit in Brazil.

On the other hand, since its inception, the recurring themes covered by G20 summit participants have related in priority to global economic growth,
international trade and financial market regulation – these are issues affecting Africa. South Africa could direct G20’s win-win influence in streamlining the beneficial economic sphere considered key to Africa’s development and which would unprecedentedly impact on aspects of life of an estimated 1.4 billion people in the 21st century.

With South Africa at the helm of G20 affairs, it is therefore paramount to seriously “re-evaluate” both the group and individual member’s relations with Africa. South Africa has a unique opportunity to influence the global agenda, especially in addressing the priorities of developing nations. Here are key actions South Africa should undertake:

1. Advocate for African and Global South Priorities

Debt Relief and Financing: Push for frameworks that support debt restructuring and sustainable financing for developing nations, ensuring equitable access to funds for recovery and development. Climate Justice: Emphasize the need for climate financing and support for adaptation, particularly for African nations facing severe climate vulnerabilities.

2. Enhance Multilateralism

Strengthen international cooperation on trade, technology transfer, and global health, highlighting Africa’s role in the global economy. Support reforms in global governance institutions, such as the IMF and World Bank, to give emerging economies more say in decision-making.

3. Promote Inclusive Growth

Champion policies to address inequality, including initiatives to improve education, health, and digital inclusion across member states. Focus on creating partnerships to promote job creation, particularly in green and digital economies.

4. Strengthen Food and Energy Security

Address disruptions in global supply chains exacerbated by geopolitical conflicts. Advocate for sustainable agricultural practices and support energy transition strategies that align with Africa’s development needs.

5. Foster Trade and Investment Opportunities

Use the G20 platform to attract investments in Africa, highlighting the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) as a mechanism for growth. Advocate for fair trade practices that enable African products to access global markets without undue barriers.

If South Africa effectively prioritizes these actions, it could strengthen Africa’s influence in global decision-making drive sustainable development and reduce inequality. The position of South Africa and the African continent are central players in solving global challenges. In a nutshell, South Africa’s leadership in the G20 offers an opportunity to align the group’s actions with Africa’s development aspirations while fostering global solidarity in an era of increasing geopolitical complexity.

(iii) Ghana’s directorship of Commonwealth Secretariat: In late October 2024, the Commonwealth of Nations marked yet another milestone with the appointment of Ghana’s Foreign Minister and Regional Integration, Shirley AyorkorBotchwey, as the next Secretary-General. For West Africans, her appointment was a prestigious testament, first to women’s empowerment and second, to resilience and a reminder that Africa’s voice matters on the world stage.

Despite these two reasons, however, it further presented a step forward in broadening African representation at the helm of international organizations and most importantly the extent this could impact the development of the multifaceted relations with the continent. The Commonwealth has played various roles and continues to attach indivisible value in fostering partnerships with various African countries.

Through these relations, Africa’s economy may benefit from a renewed diverse set of attention to sustainable development and job creation opportunities. It could also see increased investment and trade partnerships among its 56 member nations. Without mincing words, the Commonwealth has shown, in various ways, commitment to unity, peace, and sustainable progress in Africa.

Africa’s relationship with the Commonwealth presents several opportunities, particularly in the context of current geopolitical shifts. For instance, access to markets: The Commonwealth provides a platform for enhancing intra-Commonwealth trade, which is projected to reach $1 trillion annually. Africa can leverage this to diversify trade partners amid shifting global alliances. The next question relates to existing investment opportunities: the Commonwealth programs promote investment, particularly in sustainable industries, offering African countries opportunities to attract Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in green and digital economies.

As the Secretary-General, Shirley AyorkorBotchwey has the possibility of negotiating for initiatives like the Commonwealth scholarships and fellowships to promote education and capacity building, helping African nations develop skilled workforces. And also for strengthening cultural programs and exchanges foster mutual understanding and cooperation.

With increasing competition between global powers, Africa can use the Commonwealth to diversify alliances, reducing over-reliance on single blocs like China or the West. By actively engaging with the Commonwealth, Africa can harness these opportunities to navigate the complexities of global power dynamics while fostering development and regional stability.

(iv) Nigeria’s pedalling World Trade Organization: Today’s transformations and reforms at the World Trade Organization have practical evidence to support the newly created single borderless market in Africa.

The African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) being the flagship of the African Union (AU) is intended to consolidate the intra-African trade to an expected tune of $2.7 trillion and the diverse spheres of the continental economy. In its 2024 report, the UNECA estimated that by 2045 intra-African trade will increase by nearly 35% compared to a situation without the AfCFTA.

This is one signal pointing to the fact that WTO has to strike a groundbreaking impactful collaboration with AfCFTA, but a lot would depend on how critical and important Africa’s partnership with external players is designed and pursued, uttermost offering Africa better opportunities for noticeable economic, socio-cultural and political growth.

In practical reality, Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala and WTO top management have to show seriousness in changing to result-oriented partnerships, especially in its historic trade cooperation these decades with Africa. Both the World Trade Organization (WTO) and the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) aim to reduce barriers to trade, such as tariffs and non-tariff barriers, fostering economic integration and market access.

The WTO provides a global framework for trade regulations, while AfCFTA operates within a similar rule-based framework at the continental level, ensuring predictability and transparency. Both organizations focus on enhancing the trade capacity of member states. The WTO supports developing nations with trade-related technical assistance, while AfCFTA includes initiatives to boost the trade readiness of African countries. The WTO and AfCFTA could work together to harmonize regional trade rules with global trade agreements, ensuring coherence between Africa’s trade policies and international standards.

In summary, the WTO and AfCFTA share common goals in promoting fair and inclusive trade practices, and collaboration between the two can significantly enhance the global trade integration of African countries.

(v) Conclusion – The Year of Africa: Achievable and strategic recommendations for 2025: Judging from the discussion, the African Union and individual African States, therefore in 2025, have to consider the absolute necessity to outlook for strategic collaboration with external partners and corporate shareholders within the framework of the African Union’s Agenda 2063. The necessity for African leaders to prioritize economic parameters and their related proactive measures that enhance practical support for both public and private-sector collaboration.

In furtherance to this, the necessity to draw a roadmap for businesses to achieve long-term sustainable growth, and utilize the opportunities in the intra-African single market while simultaneously adapting to shifting global market demands.

In addition, African leaders, in order to claim the public nobility, instead of rattling anti-western rhetoric have to build and muster their own negotiation capacity to deal with developed countries. In the subsequent years, reawaking the African Union and other Regional Economic Communities, and African leaders should arguably be the main priority, predictably as possible to play the economic development catch-up, in the Global South.

Professor Maurice Okoli is a fellow at the Institute for African Studies and the Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences. He is also a fellow and lecturer at the North-Eastern Federal University of Russia. He serves as an expert at the Roscongress Foundation and the Valdai Discussion Club.

As an academic researcher and economist with a keen interest in current geopolitical changes and the emerging world order, Maurice Okoli frequently
contributes articles for publication in reputable media portals on different aspects of the interconnection between developing and developed countries, particularly in Asia, Africa, and Europe. With comments and suggestions, he can be reached via email: markolconsult (at) gmail (dot) com.

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How AI Levels the Playing Field for SMEs

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A! in SMEs

By Linda Saunders

Intro: In many small businesses, the owner often starts out as the bookkeeper, the customer-service desk, the IT technician and the person who steps in when a delivery goes wrong. With so many balls up in the air – and such little room for error – one dropped ball can derail the entire day and trigger a chain of problems that’s hard to recover from. Unlike larger companies that have the luxury of spreading the load across dedicated teams and systems, SMEs carry it all on a few shoulders.

South Africa’s SME sector carries significant weight, contributing around 19% of GDP and a third of formal employment, according to the latest available Trade & Industrial Policy Strategies (TIPS) 2024 review. That is causing persistent constraints, including tight margins, erratic demand, high administrative load, and limited internal capacity.

This is not unique to South Africa. Many smaller businesses across the continent still rely on manual processes. It is common to find sales records kept separately from customer notes, or inventory data that is updated only occasionally. The result is slow turnaround times, duplicated effort and a lack of visibility across the business. Given that SMEs have such a huge influence on national economies, accounting for over 90% of all businesses, between 20-40% of GDP in some African countries, and a major source of employment, providing around 80% of jobs, these operational constraints have a broad impact on economies.

What has changed in recent years is that digital tools once seen as the preserve of larger companies have become more attainable for smaller operators. They do not remove the structural challenges SMEs face, but they can ease the load. Better systems do not replace judgement, experience or customer relationships; they simply give small companies more room to work with.

Cloud-based systems, automation and integrated customer-management tools have become more affordable and easier to deploy. They do not remove the structural pressures facing small businesses, but they can ease the operational load and create more space for productive work.

Doing more with the teams SMEs already have

Small teams often end up wearing several hats. One person might take customer calls, update stock records, handle service issues and manage follow-ups. When demand rises, these manual processes become harder to sustain. Local surveys regularly point to this strain, showing that smaller companies spend significant portions of the week on paperwork, compliance and routine administrative tasks – work that adds little value but cannot be ignored.

This is where automation is proving useful. Routine tasks such as onboarding new customers, checking documents, routing queries to the right person, logging interactions and sending follow-ups can now run quietly in the background. In larger companies, whole departments handle this work. In small businesses, the same burden has traditionally fallen on one or two people. When these processes run reliably without constant attention, a business with 10 employees can manage busier periods without rushed outsourcing or slipping service standards.

The point is not to replace staff, but to reduce the operational drag that limits what small teams can deliver. Structured workflows give SMEs a level of steadiness they have rarely had the time or money to build themselves.

Using better data to make better decisions

A second constraint facing SMEs is disorganised information. When customer details are lost in email, sales notes in chat groups, stock figures in spreadsheets and queries in separate systems, decisions depend on whatever information happens to be at hand. Forecasting becomes guesswork, and early warning signs are easy to miss.

Putting all this information in a single place changes the quality of decision-making. When sales, service and stock data can be viewed together, patterns become easier to spot: which products are moving, which customers are becoming less active, where delays tend to occur, and which periods consistently drive higher demand.

Importantly, SMEs do not need corporate analytics teams for this. Modern CRM platforms can organise information automatically and surface basic trends. For retailers preparing for 2026, this can help avoid over – or under – stocking. For service businesses, it can highlight customers who may be at risk of leaving, prompting earlier intervention. In competitive markets, having clearer information is a practical advantage.

Building a foundation before the pressure arrives

Rapid growth can be as destabilising for SMEs as an economic downturn. When orders increase, manual processes quickly reach their limit. Errors are more likely, staff become overwhelmed and the customer experience suffers. Many small businesses only upgrade their systems once these problems appear, by which time the cost, both financial and reputational, is already significant.

Putting basic workflow tools and a unified customer record in place early provides a useful buffer. Tasks follow the same steps every time, reducing inconsistency. Customers reach the right person more quickly. Staff spend less time checking or re-entering information and more time on work that matters. These small operational gains compound over time, especially during busy periods.

This is not about chasing every new technology. It is about avoiding a common pattern in the SME sector: when demand rises, systems buckle, and growth becomes more difficult.

Confidence matters as much as capability

Smaller companies understandably worry about risk when adopting new systems. Data protection, monitoring, and compliance can feel daunting without an IT department. The advantage of modern platforms is that many of these protections, like encryption, audit trails, and event monitoring, are built in. Transparent design also helps SMEs understand how automated decisions are made and how customer data is handled.

This reassurance is important because SMEs should not have to choose between improving their operations and protecting their customers’ information.

2026 will reward readiness

Technology will not replace the qualities that give SMEs their edge: personal service, flexibility, and the ability to respond quickly to customer needs. What it can do is relieve the administrative load that prevents those strengths from being fully used.

SMEs that invest in simple automation and better data practices now will enter 2026 with greater capacity and clearer insight. They won’t be competing with larger companies by matching their resources, but by removing the disadvantages that have traditionally held them back.

In the year ahead, the most competitive businesses will not be the biggest; they’ll be the ones that prepared early for the year ahead.

Linda Saunders is the Country Manager & Senior Director Solution Engineering for Africa at Salesforce

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Why Africa Requires Homegrown Trade Finance to Boost Economic Integration

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Cyprian Rono Ecobank Kenya

By Cyprian Rono

Africa’s quest to trade with itself has never been more urgent. With the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) gaining momentum, governments are working to deepen intra-African commerce. The idea of “One African Market” is no longer aspirational; it is emerging as a strategic pathway for economic growth, job creation, and industrial competitiveness. Yet even as infrastructure and regulatory reforms advance, one fundamental question remains; how will Africa finance its cross-border trade, across markets with diverse currencies, regulations, and standards?

Today, only 15 to 18 percent of Africa’s internal trade happens within the continent, compared to 68 percent in Europe and 59 percent in Asia. Closing this gap is essential if AfCFTA is to deliver prosperity to Africa’s 1.3 billion people.

A major constraint is the continent’s huge trade finance deficit, which exceeds USD 81 billion annually, according to the African Development Bank. Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), which provide more than 80 percent of the continent’s jobs, are the most affected. Many struggle with insufficient collateral, stringent risk profiling and compliance requirements that mirror international banking standards rather than the realities of African business.

To build integrated value chains, exporters and importers must operate within trusted, predictable, and interconnected financial systems. This requires strong pan-African financial institutions with both local knowledge and continental reach.

Homegrown trade finance is therefore indispensable. Pan-African banks combine deep domestic roots with extensive regional reach, making them the most credible engines for financing trade integration. By retaining financial activity within the continent, homegrown lenders reduce exposure to external shocks and keep liquidity circulating locally. They also strengthen existing regional payment infrastructure such as the Pan-African Payment and Settlement System (PAPSS), developed by the Africa Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) and backed by the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) Secretariat, enabling faster, cheaper and seamless cross-border payments across the continent.

Digital transformation amplifies this advantage. Real-time payments, seamless Know-Your-Customer (KYC) verification, automated credit scoring and consistent service delivery across markets are essential for intra-African trade. Institutions such as Ecobank, operating in 34 African countries with integrated core banking systems, demonstrate how such digital ecosystems can enable continent-wide commerce.

Platforms such as Ecobank’s Omni, Rapidtransfer and RapidCollect, together with digital account-opening services, make it much easier for traders to operate across borders. Rapidtransfer enables instant, secure payments across Ecobank’s 34-country network, reducing delays in regional trade, while RapidCollect gives cross-border enterprises the ability to receive payments from multiple African countries into a single account with real-time confirmation and automated reconciliation. Together, these solutions create an integrated digital ecosystem that lowers friction, accelerates payments, and strengthens intra-African commerce.

Trust, however, remains a significant barrier. Cross-border commerce depends on the confidence that partners will honour contracts, deliver goods as promised, pay on time, and present authentic documentation. Traders often lack reliable information on potential partners, operate under different regulatory regimes, and exchange documents that are difficult to verify across borders. This heightens the risk of fraud, non-payment, and contractual disputes, discouraging businesss from expanding beyond familiar markets.

Technology is closing this trust gap. Artificial Intelligence enables lenders to assess risk using alternative data for SMEs without formal credit histories. Distributed ledger tools make shipping documents, certificates of origin, and inspection reports tamper-proof. In addition, supply-chain visibility platforms enable real-time tracking of goods and cross-border digital KYC ensures that both buyers and sellers are verified before any transaction occurs.

Ecobank’s Single Trade Hub embodies this trust infrastructure by offering a secure digital marketplace where buyers and sellers can trade with confidence, even in markets where no prior relationships exist. The platform’s Trade Intelligence suite provides customers instant access to market data from customs information and product classification tools across 133 countries.

Through its unique features such as the classification of best import/export markets, over 25,000 market and industry reports, customs duty calculators, and local and universal customs classification codes, businesses can accurately assess market opportunities, anticipate trends, reduce compliance risks, and optimise supply chains, ultimately helping them compete and grow in regional and global markets.

SMEs need more than financing. Many operate in cash-heavy cycles where suppliers and logistics providers require upfront payment. Lenders can support these businesses with advisory services, business intelligence, compliance guidance, and platforms for secure partner verification, contract negotiation, and secure settlement of payments. Trade fairs, industry forums, and partnerships with chambers of commerce further build the trust networks needed for cross-border trade.

Ultimately, Africa’s path toward meaningful trade integration begins with financial integration. AfCFTA’s promise will only be realised when enterprises can trade with confidence, knowing that payments will be honoured, partners verified, and disputes resolved. This requires collaboration between banks, regulators, and trade institutions, alongside harmonised financial regulations, interoperable payment systems, and continent-wide verification networks.

Africa can no longer rely on external actors to finance its trade. Its economic transformation depends on strong, trusted, and digitally enabled African financial institutions that understand Africa’s unique risks and opportunities. By building an African-led trade finance ecosystem, the continent can unlock liquidity, reduce dependence on external currencies, empower SMEs, and retain more value locally. Africa’s trade revolution will accelerate when its financing is driven by African institutions, African systems, and African ambition.

Cyprian Rono is the Director of Corporate and Investment Banking for Kenya and EAC at Ecobank Kenya

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Tax Reform or Financial Exclusion? The Trouble with Mandatory TINs

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Tax Reform or Financial Exclusion

By Blaise Udunze

It is not only questionable but an aberration that a nation where over 38million Nigerians remain financially excluded, where trust in institutions is fragile, and where citizens are pressured under the weight of rising living costs, the use of Tax Identification Number (TIN) has been specified as the only option for their bank accounts operation from January 1, 2026 by the Federal Government of Nigeria.

In practice, the policy spearheaded by Taiwo Oyedele, Chairman of the Presidential Committee on Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms, is rooted in the Nigerian Tax Administration Act (NTAA), and the intention can be understood in the areas of improving tax compliance, widening the tax net, and formalizing economic activities. But in practice, the directive risks becoming yet another well-meaning reform that punishes the wrong people, disrupts financial inclusiveness, and potentially destabilises an already stressed economy.

Yes, Nigeria needs tax reforms. Yes, the country must broaden its tax base. And yes, public revenues must increase to address fiscal pressures.

But compelling citizens to obtain TINs as a condition for operating bank accounts is the wrong tool for the right objective.

Below are five core arguments against the directive, and sustainable alternatives that actually strengthen tax compliance without endangering banking access or punishing informal earners.

The Directive Risks Deepening Financial Exclusion

Nigeria still struggles with financial inclusion. According to several official assessments, over 38 million adults remain outside the formal financial system. Many of them operate small, irregular businesses, survive through subsistence earnings, or depend on cash-based livelihoods.

The Federal Government’s compulsory TIN-for-bank-accounts policy is built on the assumption that every banked Nigerian is structured, organised, and tax-ready. This is false.

For instance, the rural market woman with N30,000 in rotating savings, the okada rider who deposits cash once a week, the petty trader using a mobile POS agent account, the retiring pensioner managing a small monthly income, and the migrant worker sends small remittances to their family. These are not tax evaders; they are survivalists.

Most operate bank accounts not because they run formal businesses, but because those accounts are essential to modern financial life: receiving transfers, accessing loans, participating in digital commerce, saving against emergencies, and avoiding the risks of moving cash in insecure environments.

By creating an additional bureaucratic barrier, the directive risks pushing millions back into a cash-dominant shadow economy, precisely the opposite outcome of what Nigeria’s financial-sector reforms are trying to achieve.

Bank Accounts Are Not Proof of Taxable Income

The NTAA clarifies that the TIN requirement applies only to taxable persons, individuals engaged in trade, employment, or income-generating activities.

But herein lies the problem: banks cannot determine who is “taxable” and who is not. Banks only see deposits and withdrawals. They do not audit the source or consistency of income. They are not tax authorities.

A student may run a small online clothing resale gig. A retiree may occasionally rent out farmland.

A dependent may receive cash support from a relative abroad. A job seeker may get intermittent gifts from family.

Who decides which of these scenarios qualifies as taxable? Banks? FIRS? Or will citizens be expected to self-declare under threat of account restrictions?

The result will be confusion, over-compliance, and mass panic with banks indiscriminately demanding TINs from everyone to avoid regulatory penalties.

This not only contradicts the spirit of the law but also exposes ordinary Nigerians to harassment and arbitrary compliance requirements.

The Policy Could Trigger Disruption, Panic Withdrawals, and Cash Hoarding

Whenever Nigerians perceive threats to their access to funds, the natural reaction is withdrawal and hoarding. We saw it during:

–       the 2023 Naira redesign crisis,

–       the 2016 TSA-bank consolidation tightening, and multiple periods of financial instability.

Telling citizens that bank accounts may face “operational restrictions” if they do not obtain a TIN creates a predictable behavioural response: people will rush to withdraw money.

This would be disastrous for a banking system already pressured by:

–       high interest rates,

–       inflation eroding deposits,

–       rising loan defaults, and

–       declining public trust.

Any government policy that unintentionally creates an incentive for citizens to flee the formal banking system is counterproductive.

The TIN Requirement Will Become a Bureaucratic Nightmare

Even if millions of Nigerians want to comply, the system is not ready. Nigeria’s administrative infrastructure does not have the capacity to process tens of millions of TIN registrations within months without:

–       long queues,

–       delays,

–       data mismatches,

–       duplicate records, and

–       systemic errors.

The National Identity Number (NIN)-SIM registration experience is a painful reminder of what happens when ambitious policy meets weak execution capacity.

–       Citizens spent months in overcrowded enrolment centres.

–       Millions were blocked from services.

–       Data inconsistencies persisted.

–       The economy suffered productivity losses.

If Nigeria could not seamlessly synchronise NIN and SIM data, how will it synchronise NIN, BVN, and TIN at a national scale without dislocation?

Forcing TIN Adoption Ignores the Real Problem: Nigeria’s Broken Tax Culture

The Federal Government’s real challenge is not that citizens lack TINs, but that they lack trust in how taxes are used.

A government cannot widen the tax net when:

–       tax leakages remain widespread,

–       citizens feel services do not match taxation,

–       corruption perceptions are high,

–       government spending lacks transparency, and

–       taxpayers do not feel seen, heard, or valued.

Coercion does not build a tax culture. Engagement does. Policy does not create legitimacy. Accountability does.

If the Federal Government wants Nigerians to freely participate in the tax system, it must earn legitimacy first, not mandate compliance through financial restrictions.

What the Government Should Do Instead: A Smarter Path to Tax Reform

Instead of enforcing a policy that may backfire economically and socially, the Federal Government can adopt four smarter, people-centred alternatives.

–       Automatic TIN Issuance Linked to NIN and BVN

Rather than forcing Nigerians to apply manually, the government should:

  • auto-generate TINs for all existing BVN/NIN holders,
  • send the TINs via SMS, email, and bank alerts,
  • allow self-activation only when needed for tax obligations.

This eliminates queues, delays, and confusion.

–       Build a Voluntary Tax Compliance Culture Through Transparency and Incentives

Tax morale improves when citizens see value. Government should:

  • publish annual audited reports of tax revenue use,
  • incentivise compliant taxpayers with benefits (priority access to government grants, credit scoring, etc.),
  • simplify tax filings for small businesses.

People comply more when they feel respected, not coerced.

–       Target High-Value Tax Evaders, Not Low-Income Account Holders

Nigeria’s real tax leakages come from:

  • large corporations shifting profits,
  • politically exposed persons,
  • illicit financial flows,
  • multinational tax avoidance strategies,
  • the informal “big money” class operating outside the banking system.

Instead of threatening small depositors, the government should strengthen:

  • FIRS intelligence and investigation units,
  • inter-agency data integration (CAC, Customs, Immigration),
  • beneficial ownership transparency enforcement.

The fight against tax evasion should focus on those hiding billions, not those depositing thousands.

–       Strengthen Digital Tax Platforms for Easy Self-Registration and Compliance

If tax registration becomes as easy as opening a social media account, compliance will rise naturally. The government should build:

  • a mobile-first tax app,
  • simplified online TIN retrieval,
  • one-click tax filing for gig workers and small traders.

Digital convenience can achieve what regulatory coercion cannot.

Reform Should Not Punish the Public

No doubt, tax reforms are needed urgently, but they must come with a human face, an intelligent, equitable, and aligned with the realities of ordinary Nigerians.

The TIN-for-bank-accounts policy, while well-intentioned, risks undermining financial inclusion, triggering economic instability, and imposing unnecessary burdens on millions who are not tax evaders but survival-based earners.

Good tax policy is built on trust, not fear. On transparency, not threats. On civic legitimacy, not administrative compulsion.

If the Federal Government truly wants to modernise Nigeria’s tax system, it must focus not on restricting citizens’ access to their own money, but on:

  • repairing tax trust,
  • digitising compliance,
  • targeting the real evaders, and
  • making participation easier, not harder.

Financial inclusion took Nigeria decades to build. We cannot afford a policy that carelessly reverses these gains.

A better tax system is possible, but it must start with the people, not with their bank accounts.

Blaise, a journalist and PR professional, writes from Lagos, can be reached via: [email protected]

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