Feature/OPED
CBN’s N75trn Credit Milestone to Private Sector Falls Flat as Productivity Crisis Deepens
By Blaise Udunze
Nigeria’s financial system is flashing red, and not because of a scarcity of money. Ironically, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and the nation’s banking proudly tout a historic rise in private-sector credit, announcing figures hovering around N75 trillion throughout 2024-2025. On paper, this looks like a funding boom, a sign that businesses are borrowing, investing, expanding, and building. But on the ground, the country’s real sector tells a very different story.
Manufacturers that are the backbone of industrial output have withdrawn en masse from bank loans, their loan books collapsing by an alarming 20.3 percent within a single year. SMEs, which constitute over 90 percent of Nigeria’s businesses and nearly half of the national GDP, remain shut out of formal credit. Banks themselves are quietly battling rising non-performing loans (NPLs), with several institutions breaching the CBN’s 5 percent regulatory threshold. Meanwhile, the official “N75 trillion” credit figure hangs in the air like an illusion that appeared to be big, impressive, but dangerously misleading. This feature unpacks the contradiction. If credit is indeed booming, where did the money go? And why is the real economy shrinking away from bank financing at a time when it should be expanding?
The financial statements of Nigeria’s top manufacturers for the first nine months of 2025 show a coordinated withdrawal from bank credit. Their aggregate bank borrowings plunged from N2.526 trillion in 2024 to N2.014 trillion in 2025, a dramatic 20.3 percent drop. The details are striking:
– BUA Foods fell from N1.559 trillion to N1.105 trillion;
– Nestlé Nigeria from N653.7 billion to N521.01 billion;
– Nigerian Breweries from N204.17 billion to N162.17 billion.
– NASCON’s borrowings dropped 98percent, from N3.3 billion to N67 million.
– Others: Dangote Cement, Dangote Sugar, Guinness, and International Breweries took no new loans.
These are not marginal firms but some of the most capital-intensive, employment-generating entities in the country. Their exodus from bank borrowing is a referendum on Nigeria’s brutal credit environment, where the Monetary Policy Rate of 27-27.5 percent has pushed effective lending rates well above 30 percent, making loans unaffordable even for working capital.
The retreat has slashed their financing costs by 52.8 percent, from N1.4 trillion to N662 billion. This is not because interest rates fell; they didn’t. Businesses simply stopped borrowing.
Finance expert David Adonri describes it bluntly: “Borrowers shun bank credit… lending rates have not come down materially. Banks’ income may fall below expectations.”
But the bigger concern is not banks’ income, it is the economy’s ability to invest and grow.
This is the question that unsettles economists, industry players, and SMEs alike.
If manufacturers pull back, SMEs remain excluded, and retail borrowing is suppressed; who receives the N75 trillion? What did it finance?
The answer reveals that Nigeria’s credit allocation remains opaque; however, historical patterns and recent financial data point in three directions. Even more concerning are recent claims that the modest loan growth recorded in 2024-2025 is not commensurate with the explosive expansion of banks’ balance sheets.
This suggests that the system is growing with deposits rising, assets swelling, FX revaluation inflating balance sheets, but actual lending to the productive economy is barely moving.
The credit growth being celebrated is therefore not only concentrated but also superficial and disconnected from balance sheet realities.
- Lending concentration in big corporate and government entities
For decades, banks have preferred lending to large corporations and government-linked entities like:
– Oil & Gas
– Conglomerates and trading groups
– Government contractors
– Financial market operators
– Large borrowers with FX exposure
Even CBN’s earlier research shows that only 5-6 percent of total bank credit historically reaches SMEs.
Given the lack of detailed public data, it is reasonable to infer that the bulk of the N75 trillion still flows to:
– Large corporations
– Treasury operations
– Prime customers
– Big-ticket borrowers with government-linked contracts.
Experts warn that this reflects a financial system drifting away from the real economy, a trend Muda Yusuf describes as “worrisome and dangerous.”
- Banks are also parking funds in government securities.
Commercial banks prioritized lending to the government by investing in T-bills, FGN Bonds, and OMO instruments, where returns are high and risk-free. Over the past two years, Nigerian banks have channeled N20.4 trillion into treasury bills, bonds, and other fixed-income instruments, reaping risk-free returns rather than funding productive ventures. This “securities trap” is profitable for banks but disastrous for the economy.
A government-backed 19–22 percent yield is more attractive than lending to an SME at 27-35 percent with a high probability of default.
- FX revaluation effects and rollovers
Portions of the N75 trillion may not be new lending in the real sense but the result of regulatory reclassifications, rollovers, FX revaluation on foreign-currency loans, and large concentrated credit exposures. This creates the illusion of expanded credit without tangible productivity gains.
However, SMEs, which contribute 46.3 percent of GDP and employ millions, remain locked out of the credit system due to punitive interest rates, high collateral demands, lack of financial documentation, bureaucratic processes, and weak credit-scoring systems. Despite accounting for 97 percent of businesses and nearly 90 percent of informal jobs, SMEs receive only 5 percent of commercial bank lending. This is a structural failure. SMEs remain almost entirely disconnected from Nigeria’s celebrated “N75 trillion credit boom.”
Manufacturers’ 2025 results show turnover up 37.9 percent and profit swinging from a N116 billion loss to N2.5 trillion gain. But experts like Muda Yusuf and Clifford Egbomeade warn that these improvements are driven primarily by:
– Inflationary pricing adjustments, not increased production.
– Gains are also supported by exchange-rate stability.
– Reduced debt burden, not operational efficiency.
Nigeria risks mistaking nominal growth for real productivity.
Meanwhile, rising non-performing loans fueled by high interest rates, inflation, weakened consumer demand, and FX volatility have pushed some banks above the CBN’s 5 percent NPL ceiling, further restricting their willingness to lend, especially to SMEs.
Even the private-sector credit trend contradicts the headline figure. Throughout 2025, credit levels have shown repeated declines:
– February’s N77.3 trillion dropped to N76.3 trillion,
– N75.9 trillion in March,
– Followed by a temporary rebound to N78.1 trillion in April,
– May-August declined to N75.8 trillion.
These repeated drops reflect weakened appetite for borrowing, tighter bank lending, liquidity pressures, and borrower distress. A true credit boom does not move in this direction.
The Human Cost of an Economy without Productivity
The consequences of weak productivity are not abstract. They show up in hunger, jobs, poverty, life expectancy, and living standards. Below is where Nigeria’s crisis becomes undeniable.
– It is Not Just Rising, it is deepening
– According to the World Bank, 139 million Nigerians now live in poverty. That is six in ten Nigerians. No country with this scale of poverty can claim real economic progress.
SBM Intelligence, in a scathing review of the government’s economic reforms, noted that this administration of government has failed to lift Nigerians’ living standards, despite the loud claims of macroeconomic stability.
Life Expectancy in Nigeria Is Now the Lowest in the World
The UN’s 2025 Global Health Report ranked Nigeria’s life expectancy at 54.9 years, the worst globally, far below the world average of 73.7 years. This decline is attributed to:
– Insecurity
– Poor healthcare access
– Rising poverty
– Nutritional deficiencies
– Weak social welfare
A productive economy increases life expectancy; a collapsing one shortens it.
Hunger Is the Real Inflation Index
While official inflation reports show “stabilisation,” the lived reality says otherwise.
In the kitchens of Lagos, in the cries of hungry children, and in the struggles of market women, a harsher truth is spoken daily: Empty pots do not lie, and hunger, not percentages, is Nigeria’s real inflation index.
Debt Explosion Is Eroding Nigeria’s Future
Since President Bola Ahmed Tinubu took office in 2023:
– Nigeria’s public debt surged from N33.3 trillion-N152.4 trillion. A staggering 348.6 percent increase in less than two years
Economies don’t collapse overnight; they deteriorate gradually. Nigeria is flashing every warning signal.
Unemployment Appears “Stable,” But Youth Joblessness Is Rising
The International Labour Organisation (ILO) reports that while Nigeria’s headline unemployment rate has fallen to 4.3 percent, youth unemployment has risen to 6.5 percent. A youthful population with no jobs is a time bomb for the economy.
Financial System Delinking from the Real Economy
Nigeria’s financial system appears to be delinking from the real economy. High interest rates make loans too expensive, manufacturers cut borrowing, SMEs are excluded, banks channel funds into T-bills, NPLs rise, banks tighten further, and private-sector growth slows. This feedback loop is dangerous.
Monetary authorities have prioritised stabilization, achieving a firmer naira, temporary FX calm, and reduced speculative pressure, but at the cost of choking credit, suppressing investment, weakening job creation, and widening the disconnect between banks and the productive economy. The recovery, as Egbomeade notes, is “fragile and easily reversible.”
To reverse the trend, Nigeria must rebuild the credit pipeline. To break the cycle, three urgent reforms are needed:
- The CBN should publish transparent, disaggregated credit data.
This must show credit allocation by firm size, region, sector, and performance.
- Expand targeted credit guarantees for SMEs and manufacturers.
Deposit money banks and the government must strengthen SME and manufacturing credit channels through expanded guarantees.
- Reduced collateral barriers and adopted alternative credit scoring, stronger BOI pipelines.
- Incentives for real-sector lending through tax breaks and prudential relief.
- Most importantly, interest rates must gradually fall to levels that support investment and production while maintaining FX stability. Credit cannot revive with 30-35 lending rates.
Nigeria’s N75 trillion private-sector credit figures may look impressive, but manufacturers have withdrawn, SMEs have little access, banks are risk-averse, NPLs are rising, the real sector is struggling, debt is exploding, Life expectancy is collapsing, hunger is spreading, productivity remains weak, and credit levels are trending downward. The real question is no longer how large the number is but who actually received it, what it financed, and what it produced. Until credit flows to production, industry, SMEs, and innovation, Nigeria will continue celebrating large numbers while the real economy gasps for oxygen. It is time to stop counting the trillions and start counting the impact.
Blaise, a journalist and PR professional, writes from Lagos, can be reached via: bl***********@***il.com
By Owoloye Emmanuel
Every business starts with a problem. For us, that problem was hiding in plain sight.
Across organisations, we kept seeing HR professionals, payroll teams, and business leaders spend significant time navigating processes that should be simpler. Employee records sat across multiple systems, payroll processes required manual intervention, and routine workforce tasks often became more complicated than they needed to be.
As businesses grow, workforce operations naturally become more complex. Yet many organisations still rely on disconnected tools and workflows that create unnecessary friction for both employers and employees.
The consequence is more than operational inefficiency. HR teams spend valuable time managing systems instead of supporting people. Business leaders struggle to access timely workforce insights, while employees experience delays in processes that should be seamless.
These weren’t isolated challenges. They were recurring realities across workplaces, regardless of industry or size.
That observation led us to a simple question: what if workforce management could be easier?
What if HR, payroll, and workforce operations could work together within a single, connected experience?
That question became the foundation for 234 Solutions.
We are building 234 Solutions with a clear belief that workplace technology should reduce complexity, not add to it. Our goal is to help organisations spend less time navigating processes and more time focusing on productivity, growth, and people.
As we prepare for launch, our focus remains simple: building practical solutions for real workplace challenges and helping organisations create better experiences for the people who power them every day.
Owoloye Emmanuel is the founder of 234 Solutions
Scroll through social media today, and you will notice something interesting: everyone is either reacting to a series, quoting a movie line, or debating a character as though they personally know them. Beneath the memes and binge-watch culture, however, lies something deeper. Television remains one of the most powerful tools shaping how Africans see themselves, remember their history, and tell their own stories. In a continent as diverse and expressive as Africa, that matters more than ever.
TV as a Cultural Archive, Not Just Entertainment
Long before streaming algorithms began shaping our viewing habits, television was already preserving African identity. From Nollywood dramas that capture the rhythm of everyday Lagos life to documentaries exploring Maasai traditions and Ghanaian folklore, TV has served as a living archive of the continent’s stories.
It preserves more than entertainment; it preserves language, culture, humour, values, and shared experiences. Unlike fleeting social media content, television allows stories to unfold with depth, exploring the realities of family, tradition, ambition, and modern African life without reducing them to stereotypes. That is the power of TV: preserving not just stories, but perspective.
Why Representation on TV Still Matters
There is a subtle but important truth: if people do not see themselves on screen, they may begin to believe their stories are not worth telling. This is why African TV content is more than entertainment; it is affirmation.
Seeing a character who speaks like you, struggles like you, or celebrates like your community does something powerful. It validates identity and challenges outdated narratives that have historically defined Africa through external lenses.
This is where MultiChoice Group, through platforms such as DStv and GOtv, plays an important role. They do not simply broadcast content; they help distribute cultural memory at scale.
GOtv, DStv, and the Everyday African Viewer
Think about a typical evening in many African homes: the TV is on in the background, someone is laughing at a comedy show, another person is watching a local series, and someone else is catching up on the news. That shared viewing experience remains very real.
Through platforms such as DStv and GOtv, African households are exposed to a blend of local storytelling and global content. More importantly, they have helped amplify African-produced content by bringing Nollywood films, African reality shows, talk shows, and documentaries into mainstream rotation.
It is not just about access. It is about visibility.
A young filmmaker in Lagos today is more likely to believe their story matters because they have seen similar stories broadcast widely. A child in Accra grows up hearing familiar accents and seeing environments that look like their own on screen, not as exceptions, but as the norm.
TV Is Also Shaping Modern African Identity
African identity is not static; it is evolving. Television reflects that evolution in real time.
Today, audiences see:
-
Young Africans balancing tradition and modern dating culture
-
Stories tackling mental health in African households
-
Fashion and music influences spreading through TV series
-
Political satire shaping public conversation
Conversations that were once confined to homes are now being explored on screen, giving audiences the language to discuss issues that were previously unspoken.
In many ways, television is doing what oral tradition has always done: passing stories, values, humour, warnings, and history from one generation to the next. The difference is that today’s griots are writers, directors, and broadcasters.
The Future: From Watching to Owning Our Narratives
The next stage of African storytelling is not just about being seen; it is about ownership.
As more African creators produce content and platforms continue to invest in regional storytelling, television becomes more than a mirror. It becomes a tool for shaping how Africa is represented to itself and to the world.
While streaming continues to grow, television, particularly accessible platforms such as GOtv, remains one of the most effective ways to reach everyday audiences across different income levels and regions. After all, storytelling only matters if people can access it.
African stories are not new. They have always existed in families, on streets, in markets, in history books, and through oral traditions. What television has done, and continues to do, is give those stories a stage wide enough for millions to experience them at once.
The next time you watch a local series or documentary on DStv or GOtv, remember that you are not just being entertained. You are participating in the preservation of African identity itself.
By Kehinde Ogundare
Ask a tech entrepreneur in San Francisco what AI means for their business, and they are likely to talk about competitive advantage, product differentiation, and scale. Ask a small business owner in Kano or Onitsha the same question, and the conversation shifts entirely.
For many Nigerian SMEs, the priority is keeping the lights on, managing costs, and finding sustainable ways to grow in a challenging economic environment. This difference in perspective explains why the global AI conversation, often shaped by assumptions about stable infrastructure, deep capital, and abundant technical talent, frequently fails to address the realities facing Nigerian SMEs.
This matters because Nigerian SMEs are not a peripheral concern. In 2024 alone, MSMEs contributed 46.32% to Nigeria’s GDP, accounting for 96.9% of businesses and 87.9% of employment. These businesses are the backbone of the Nigerian economy, and if AI is going to mean anything for Nigeria’s development, it has to work for them in the daily conditions they actually operate in.
However, research drawing on empirical data from 144 Nigerian SMEs found that inadequate infrastructure, low digital literacy, skills shortages, and regulatory gaps are collectively preventing them from meaningfully engaging with AI. Awareness of AI is high and growing. What is missing is a clear and honest conversation about what adoption actually requires in this specific context. The barriers are real, but none of them are insurmountable. The question is whether the tools, pricing models, and support structures being offered to Nigerian SMEs are designed with those barriers in mind, or whether they have been built for another market entirely.
Subscription models making AI affordable for small businesses
When most small business owners hear “AI,” they imagine expensive software, specialist consultants, and a hefty upfront bill.
That assumption is not entirely wrong, but it describes a particular way of buying technology, not AI itself. The shift that makes AI genuinely accessible at the SME level is the move away from large, one-time capital purchases towards tools that charge a predictable monthly subscription. Businesses can pay for what they use, scale back when necessary, and avoid the debt that a major technology investment can create.
The deeper opportunity here is consolidation. Many SMEs are already spending money across multiple disconnected tools—one for invoicing, another for customer records, another for stock tracking—none of which talk to each other. An integrated platform that handles several of these functions together, with AI built in, can actually cost less than the sum of those separate subscriptions while giving business owners a clearer picture of their operations.
With margins already under pressure, any technology a business adopts needs to visibly show an increase in productivity or bottom line. Subscription-based, integrated platforms, priced transparently and honestly, are the model that best fits this reality.
Infrastructure challenges demand a mobile-first approach
No conversation about technology in Nigeria is complete without confronting the infrastructure problem, and AI is no exception. Nigeria continues to face major infrastructure barriers, including limited broadband access, unreliable power supply, and high data costs, all of which constrain deeper AI adoption. These are structural features of the operating environment that any sensible technology strategy must account for today.
The electricity situation alone is significant. The World Bank estimates that the lack of stable electricity costs Nigeria’s economy approximately $26.2 billion annually, equivalent to about 2% of GDP, forcing many businesses to run on expensive diesel generators. That cost ripples outward.
In practical terms, AI tools built for Nigeria cannot assume a stable broadband connection or a computer that is always powered on. The tools that will actually get used are the ones that work on a smartphone, consume minimal data, and can function offline when connectivity drops, syncing back up when it returns. The mobile phone is already how many Nigerian SME owners run their businesses. AI that meets them there, rather than demanding infrastructure they do not have, is AI that has a genuine future in this market.
The direction is clear: build capability from within, using tools that make that possible. Recent AI performance research reveals that 64% of African workers are already actively using AI at work, signalling massive grassroots readiness and driving forward-thinking organisations across Nigeria, Kenya, and South Africa to aggressively prioritise internal upskilling frameworks to bridge the talent gap.
As the policy groundwork is being laid, the commercial ecosystem is beginning to respond. What remains is a clear-eyed acceptance that AI tools built for this market need to look different from those built for markets with different realities. Low cost, low bandwidth, and usability for non-technical people are not modest ambitions; they are the actual requirements. Build for those realities, and AI has a real future in Nigeria’s SME economy.
-
Feature/OPED6 years agoDavos was Different this year
-
Travel/Tourism10 years ago
Lagos Seals Western Lodge Hotel In Ikorodu
-
Showbiz3 years agoEstranged Lover Releases Videos of Empress Njamah Bathing
-
Banking8 years agoSort Codes of GTBank Branches in Nigeria
-
Economy3 years agoSubsidy Removal: CNG at N130 Per Litre Cheaper Than Petrol—IPMAN
-
Banking3 years agoSort Codes of UBA Branches in Nigeria
-
Banking3 years agoFirst Bank Announces Planned Downtime
-
Sports3 years agoHighest Paid Nigerian Footballer – How Much Do Nigerian Footballers Earn