Feature/OPED
Christianity, COVID-19, History, Philosophy & Atheism: Predicting 2020 – 3020
By Nneka Okumazie
If Christ’s second coming does not happen soon, to immediately set in the Book of Revelation, there are likelihoods for the next one thousand years.
The reason for this prognostication is how lost many are in the maximum of present day capability, knowledge, power, problems, etc.
History is forgotten and future is disregarded. A century is diminutive in a larger scope, but a millennium explains better.
The last one ending 1999 was thoroughly eventful.
That thousand years starting in 1000AD could be referred to as M1-AD. This current millennium can be referred to as M2-AD, then next as M3-AD, etc.
M1 is parallel to M2, but lots of significant events of M1 are yet to happen. Some have, in another fashion, seen with common denominators.
There are lots of knowledge javelins, questioning, discrediting and creating new philosophies. But the fiercest of reasoning forgets its recent history – in elevating its own truth.
For most of M1, starting with the Renaissance, lots of thinkers came out against the Christian faith and the Scriptures. Many continue till present arguing against the faith of total morality.
Many debate the possible origins of morality without Christianity, but whatever their debate says, no speech or writing till the end of this earth will – independently – match the totality of the sermon on the mount.
Yes, people are free to use logic and science to question the existence of God, a spirit. But atheists or those in their beliefs should write their own book based on history on the last one thousand years.
They should write about events, mistakes, assumptions, collapse, wars, etc. They must not include anything about the church. If they do, to paint the church in a bad light, they must also include the contributions of the church to progress, those the church supported and great things it set in motion.
It is true that the church made mistakes, for example, in dismissal of other ideas about the solar system.
That came in centuries of fighting ‘heresy’ but the church did not stop the progress of science – in general, neither did it affect space exploration when complete knowledge for progress was ripe.
True Christianity is never the problem of the world. It is possible that people misinterpret the scriptures, speak or act in defensive ways against obedience to Christ, or make mistakes, but the real problem is always something else – not Jesus.
When some people are sometimes in crisis, they often think what they need now is not Christianity.
They often forget that no matter their problems, there are problems they don’t have. They often also forget a time they had power to do whatever they chose.
Christ came out of the purest of love. It may be hard to comprehend. But God is love.
So much energy is expended to question Christianity, forgetting that discrediting the faith of the good news that preaches pure love, joy, peace, patience, kindness, goodness, faith, gentleness, self-control, makes some hate doing any right thing associated with Christianity.
Through history, the absence of the pure morality of Christianity worsens major collapse.
In the last millennium how did problems or non-problems got worse with these headers: sexual immorality, moral impurity, promiscuity, idolatry, sorcery, hatreds, strife, jealousy, outbursts of anger, selfish ambitions, dissensions, factions, envy, drunkenness, carousing, and anything similar.
The philosophers of the enlightenment, who thought they knew enough to question the Scriptures, didn’t have the know-how to develop modern technologies, even if they had vague imaginations.
Still, many will not accept the truth in the scriptures, in spite of how limited knowledge is.
Assuming modern day science can solve all problems, answer all questions, cure all diseases and cover every ethical weakness, one aspect of frail knowledge is economics.
Economics, touted as the shaper of free enterprise, has required many individuals or businesses to do all sorts of unethical stuff, or things that cannot be reported, just to survive. So, while it is true that economics is the jewel, sticking with it to have a sustainable business has been tougher for many than could be said. Yet, no adjustments in economics against these extra factors, to make the laws of economics provide new ways to play by the rules, and not fail, or make huge losses.
Also, there is no way that knowledge or new massive theories of economics can be designed to make illegal drug trade disobey the laws of demand and supply, as another way to fight drug overdose – growing across, including the budding acceptance of micro-dosing.
The natural selection of free market economics has rendered many people near useless, because they don’t have the value that makes them qualify for jobs, or get better working conditions or perks.
Universal Basic Income – a budding policy proposal, though could really be useful – won’t fill the void when many in a population have nothing to do, seeming like an unwanted economic conscription.
So, how would everyone – of age, become valuable to the labour market, in diverse ways, to make them fit into roles, or provide a channel for what they can do or join.
There are no new – major – economics ideas on these, looking into the field to shape and reshape known flaws. Lots of papers make the case for designer free stuff, but if people – skilled or unskilled don’t fit, no free stuff will change much, in unpredictability of what those who are left out would do.
Yet, many assume the supremacy of knowledge when economics, a major area of knowledge is starving of ideas that are as important to how the world would be better, with less strife, wickedness, envy, greed, etc.
It is possible that the reason there are no ideas on what to do with the ‘unemployable’ or under-employed people across countries is because the knowledge has not been released.
Yes, it can be argued [against] that knowledge is released from anywhere, but what would have stopped the innovations and change in the Renaissance to have happened in the millennium before? Also, why was it that some imaginations of that time only became technically possible centuries later?
Is it not possible that with centuries is knowledge released, or knowledge increasing?
Also, is it not possible that there are often two ends of knowledge released, or as knowledge increases, unanticipated problems show up, or another end of dangerous knowledge also follows?
If knowledge increases, and some ideas are unavailable now, aren’t they likely in eight centuries?
Also, if some of the smartest thinkers were alive during the Bubonic Plague(s) and star scientists during the 1918 flu, yet they could not contrive something fast to stop the deaths, is it not possible that most scientists can only think what they can think, or do what they can do, not everything?
In general, if knowledge increases, and knowledge is released, and those coming will be able to ‘see’ those in history and probably know better, why can people in any century be able to conclusively say the resurrection of Christ, the Savoir does not match their limited reasoning?
[2 Peter 3:8, But, beloved, be not ignorant of this one thing, that one day is with the Lord as a thousand years, and a thousand years as one day.]
The United States: The United States is likely to remain the dominant power for another century, and probably beyond. But it is likely a remote advanced country in the South could need its help in a crisis and some Americans would move there, and may be settle but would likely be a place for majority of the future Americans mid-M2, if things change.
Europe: Domination and power is likely to return to Europe within the first half of this millennium. It is easy to guess that authority would be in Germany, but another country hard to predict may emerge.
Middle East: The Arab Spring was like a warning to what would come for the region this century, as it may have its own religious reformation, new states, and those who would take out grievances on their own people. It is also likely that at least one major country would overplay its power for religious intolerance, with oppression of others, but result in a major war – breaking the country. It is also possible there’ll be major powers to become foes occupying another’s territory – in the next century.
Others: There might strange natural disasters in some places, as climate change becomes ‘normal.’ Some places will get to a point of progress that their poverty won’t matter. Some would beat poverty. Other will remain in poverty. Some would have pandemics within their space. Some would be neutral zones in pandemics. Some would become spaces where others would build a new country. Some would face major secessions. Some would become armed republics. Some would become regions of intense conflict, etc. in the coming years and hundreds of years.
Technology: It is likely that another existence that will become as intelligent as humans will be an animal. If it’s an animal, it may not be domestic or what can be easily guessed. It is unlikely that a general intelligence will be Artificial, or computers. The dream of Artificial General Intelligence is likely to be on the radar of engineers, but if not elusive, may not be necessary.
The weakness of technology is already false information, fakes and conspiracy theories. These will be the Achilles heels of tech hamstringing progress, far more than the church ever tried to. There will also be lots of misdirected and misguided developments that will become troublesome. There might be so many covert sciences – throwing out ethics that will lead to mistakes, or for use as deterrent.
In this century at least, new models of whistle-blowers and privacy breaches will weaken trust in technology, institutions and make many distance from it.
Though technology will bring new great innovation easing lives and helping people, but just like legal notices are clear from the start, so will ethics and transparency have to be extremely clear from the beginning, almost to a painful point.
Science will have unexpected collapse of certainty, where scientific instruments or proven knowledge will be erroneous – in the face of problems. For example, the initial rapacity for mechanical ventilators, for COVID-19 patients, until it didn’t matter to keep many alive.
Though more old diseases will get curable, mutations and replications are likely to become more worrying. Adjustments to green energy are also likely to grow.
Psychology: The world is already in a collapse of mind and behaviour. Lots of people are in a crisis of emptiness. Some are nominally depressed and others have anxiety and other disorders.
Dependence on technology is likely to make this century one of failure for psychology in a manner resulting in all kinds of mind and behavioural suddenness and actions that cannot be explained.
There will, at least, be a century of great psychology, probably from 2250, or beyond, that would look back to this era, and wonder how a people became crushed by their own invention, while thinking they were living in the best time to be alive.
Though psychotherapy will take new forms, and more people will find ways to keep their minds light, but, place in history and usefulness for the future can become pivotal in easing anxieties for people.
Also, for lots of people, pornògraphy will become a recruitment tool for homòsexuality.
Many would be triggered by images of something else, or what another experience would bring – after exhausting satisfactions that always becomes linear.
People addicted to jokes and memes or seeking entertainment always from their smartphones will gradually be eroded from choice cognition and be taken over by something else, whatever it may be.
Drug use and overdose will enter into another territory as mind collapses and many behaviours become undefined. Drug use will lead to an unprecedented amount of ‘waste’. Though, a way to heal for many will be when they see extremes that happened to someone they know, or a different presentation.
Atheism: There will be an explosion of spaces for atheists – online and offline – till at least mid-century this decade, especially as psychology collapses and [what people cannot understand] befall personal lives of many.
But atheism spaces will be crippled by failure of patience where many would see what wrong decisions they took because of lack of Patience – a fruit of the spirit in Christianity.
Also, some members will watch with disgust the lack of wisdom of many of their leaders. Also, they will be surprised by the rejection of doing things right because of their larger belief of nothingness.
Lots of confidences of the atheist teams will fail suddenly, making many reflect on [the outsized way they rated] their strengths and knowledge.
There will also be individuals, who wished for something, and it happens, or wanted something and they got it, but later found no lasting satisfaction.
For example, some people wanted a total collapse before COVID-19, they got lockdown, yet became anxious and panicked.
Some also wanted freedom, or a desire, or a kind of drug, sex, or anything, they got it, yet was not the answer to their emptiness.
There will be lots of fatigues in their community, with deceit, envy, anger, those who breakout will be persecuted.
There is likely to be dedicated factions of atheisms, from general against all religions, to specific. Yes, it seems most atheists are against Christianity, but many would probably focus.
There will be those who will emerge with new thoughtful questions and logic, to initially create new waves, but will always be impaired knowledge.
Since atheists claim to be curious, they can read the Book of Job from Chapter 3 till the end, then come back to read Chapters 1&2. If they cannot find answers there, they can read Psalm 1 – 50. To understand [that] whatever they say isn’t new, also to place why they hate God – love of sin or life’s troubles.
Space: It is possible that man may make Mars this century, however necessity and sustainability could continue or limit that exploration. Within this next one thousand years, it is likely that an unknown planet or star could fly by, defying established theory on distant stars or gravitation, or all the work done to look for life on other planets.
It is also possible that lots of talents and resources that would’ve been useful in revolutionizing economics, etc. will be spent to seek distant astronomy, but won’t yield much after decades.
Judaism
Judaism will enter into a golden age, with its people in major positions and general balance. Also, Israel will benefit from some collapse that may happen in places within its region, expanding its territory and getting genuine conversions.
Catholic Church
People have different interpretation from the Scripture from many of the practices of the Catholic Church. But it is likely that the Lord God Almighty has a covenant of mercy with the Catholic Church, probably [because] the Church was instrumental to Church history prior to Protestant Reformation.
No one can judge the church, except Christ.
If committees in the Catholic Church were to guess what the future may hold for the Catholic Church, it is possible their submission may include that a major crisis may happen that will lead to power sharing of leadership of the Catholic Church with a leader or more of major Pentecostal Churches.
This, in the guess of the committees, may come as a way of forced restitution as God forgives the Church for several errors in the past centuries.
God decides, not committees, or any guess, but if that would happen, it may also involve losing some choice ownership in locations to the Pentecostal Church or Churches.
But in a recommendation, the committees may say towards restitution, intense collaboration with leading Pentecostal Churches, even if to the point of opening up its buildings for worship services, and collaborations on challenges facing the world.
Ultimately, the Catholic Church should keep crying to God, relentlessly for mercy, for so many mistakes of past centuries, and the Lord should remember His covenant with the church.
[Psalm 130:4, But there is forgiveness with Thee, that Thou mayest be feared.]
Also, the Catholic Church has been told by many before and starting from the Reformation about their scriptural misinterpretations. Churches needs to pray – in groaning – to Jesus to show and correct their mistakes and to have mercy so they can make the changes in obedience to Christ alone.
Christianity
This century – at least, will be one of more closet Christians than can ever be measured. The collapse of psychology will be so devastating, mindfulness will be helpless. So many will seek Christianity answers and covertly obey.
So, it will be important to continue true preaching because the word of God does its own work – even if online video views are small, or it seems like no physical crowd, or low metrics.
Religions around the world will often refer to their imitations of the Scriptures as a way to become epicentres of morality.
But within this millennium, it is possible that there will be religions that will mix Christianity and others in what they will say are the way. The only religion that will not [be used] for this mix is Judaism, because of its similarity. But the true word of God is the truth.
There will also be people who will be ready to accept Christ even if the questions are not answered in a way they want, like why is there suffering? Or how really does prayer work?
Also, churches need to try and answer the hard questions, multiple times, with enough realness – of impossible problems many face. Churches must always insist on looking unto Jesus – permanently.
True Christian Churches must be so transparent.
They must also preach obedience always, but with love and hope.
Through the scriptures, the Lord God can save or call anyone, but a common factor is how God loves obedience. There is no other way to carry one’s cross and follow Christ than to [trust and] obey.
Churches have to be more tolerant of each other, minimizing criticisms over who misinterpreted what Scripture because on the day of trouble criticism, like atheism, is useless.
It is unlikely that through this millennium Christianity will – generally – face the kind of persecution that the Apostles faced, after Christ.
But, if at any point the burden becomes hard everywhere and Christians unite to cry to God for mercy – the prayer that thy kingdom come. Christ may return.
Yes, that is not what is in the scriptures but if that is the prayer, with probable cause, God looks mercifully on sincere prayers for mercy, because mercy is also a nature of God along with holiness.
The word of God is the future. Predictions can be grim or lofty, but the Lord, the Creator, decides.
[Psalm 135:6, Whatsoever the Lord pleased, that did He in heaven, and in earth, in the seas, and all deep places.]
By Barr. Adefila Kamal
Football in Nigeria has never been just a sport. It is emotion, argument, nationalism, and sometimes heartbreak wrapped into ninety minutes. That passion is a gift, but it often comes with a tendency to shout down progress before it has the chance to grow. In the middle of this noise sits the Nigeria Football Federation under the leadership of Ibrahim Musa Gusau, a man who has chosen steady hands over loud speeches, structure over drama, and long-term rebuilding over chasing instant applause.
When Gusau took office in 2022, he understood one thing clearly: the only way to fix Nigerian football is to repair its foundations. He said it openly during the 2025 NNL monthly awards ceremony — you cannot build an edifice from the rooftop. And true to that conviction, his tenure has taken shape quietly through structural investments that don’t trend on social media but matter where the future of the game is built. The construction of a players’ hostel and modern training pitches at the Moshood Abiola Stadium is one of the clearest signs of this shift. Nigeria has gone decades without basic infrastructure for its national teams, especially youth and age-grade squads. Gusau’s administration broke that pattern by delivering the first dedicated national-team hostel in our history, a project that signals an understanding that success is not luck — it is preparation.
The same thread runs through grassroots football. The maiden edition of the FCT FA Women’s Inter-Area Councils Football Tournament emerged under this administration, giving young female players a structured platform instead of the token attention they usually receive. These initiatives are not flashy. They do not dominate headlines. But they form the bedrock of any footballing nation that wants to be taken seriously.
Gusau’s leadership has also focused on lifting the domestic leagues out of years of decline. The NFF has revamped professional and semi-professional competitions, working to create consistent scheduling, fair officiating, and marketable competition structures. The growing number of global broadcasting partnerships — something unheard of in the old NPFL era — has brought more eyes, more credibility and more opportunities for clubs and players. Monthly awards for players, coaches and referees have introduced a culture of performance and merit, something our domestic game has needed for years. These are reforms that reshape the culture of football far beyond one season.
Internationally, Nigeria regained a powerful seat at the table when Gusau was elected President of the West African Football Union (WAFU B). This is not a ceremonial achievement. In football politics, influence determines opportunities, hosting rights, development grants, international appointments and the respect with which nations are treated. For too long, Nigeria’s voice in the region was inconsistent. Gusau’s emergence changes that, and it places Nigeria in a position where its administrative competence cannot be dismissed.
His administration has also made it clear that women’s football, youth development and academy systems are no longer side projects. There is a renewed intention to repair the broken pathways that once produced global stars with almost predictable frequency. If Nigeria is going to remain a powerhouse, development must become a machine, not an afterthought.
Still, for many observers, none of this seems to matter because the yardstick is always a single match, a single tournament or a single disappointing moment. Public criticism often grows louder than the facts. Fans want instant results, and when they don’t come, the instinct is to blame whoever is in office at the moment. But this approach has repeatedly sabotaged Nigerian football. Constant leadership changes wipe out institutional memory and scatter reform efforts before they mature. No nation becomes great by resetting its football house every time tempers flare.
Gusau’s leadership is unfolding at a time when FIFA and CAF are tightening their expectations for professionalism, financial transparency and infrastructure. Nigeria cannot afford scandals, disarray or combative politics. We need the kind of administrative consistency that global football bodies can trust — and this is exactly the lane Gusau has chosen. He has not been perfect; no administrator is. But he has been consistent, measured and focused. In an ecosystem that often rewards noise, this is rare.
For progress to hold, Nigeria must shift from the culture of outrage to a culture of constructive contribution. The media, civil society, ex-players, club owners, fan groups — everyone has a role. The truth is that Nigerian football’s biggest enemy has never been the NFF president, whoever he might be at the time. The real enemies are impatience, instability and emotional decision-making. They derail strategy. They kill reforms. They weaken institutions. And they turn football — our greatest cultural asset — into a battlefield of blame.
Gusau’s effort to reposition the NFF is a reminder that real development is rarely glamorous. It is slow, disciplined and often misunderstood. But it is the only route that leads to the future we claim to want: a football system built on structure, modern governance, infrastructure, youth development and global influence. Nigeria will flourish when we start protecting our institutions instead of tearing them down after every misstep.
If we truly want Nigerian football to rise, we must recognise genuine work when we see it. We must support continuity when it is clearly producing a roadmap. And we must resist the temptation to substitute outrage for analysis. Ibrahim Musa Gusau’s tenure is not defined by noise. It is defined by groundwork — the kind that elevates nations long after the shouting stops.
Barr. Adefila Kamal is a legal practitioner and development specialist. He serves as the National President of the Civil Society Network for Good Governance (CSNGG), with a long-standing commitment to transparency, institutional reform and sports governance in Nigeria
By Taiwo Olatunji, CFA
Nigeria’s infrastructure ambition is not constrained by vision, but by the financing architecture. The public sector balance sheet, which has been the primary source of financing, has become very tight, while financing from the private sector is available and increasing, with a focus on long-term, naira-denominated assets. Hence, the challenge lies in effectively connecting this capital to bankable projects at scale and with discipline. Project bonds, created, structured and distributed by investment banks, are the instruments required to bridge the country’s infrastructure needs.
The scale of the need is clear. Nigeria’s Revised NIIMP (2020–2043) estimates ~US$2.3 trillion, about US$100bn, a year is required annually for the next 30 years to lift infrastructure to 70% of GDP. Africa’s pensions, insurers and sovereign funds already hold over US$1.1 trillion that can be mobilised for this purpose, but they require new and innovative approaches to enhance their participation in addressing this challenge.
What is broken with the status quo?
Nigeria continues to finance inherently long-dated assets through the issuance of local currency public bonds, Sukuk and Eurobonds. This approach creates a heavy burden on the government’s balance sheet while sometimes causing refinancing risk and FX exposures, where naira cash flows service dollar liabilities. It has also led to the slow conversion of the pipeline of identified projects because many infrastructure projects have not been prepared, appraised and structured to attract the private sector.
Why project bonds and where they sit in the stack
Project bonds are debt securities issued by project SPVs and serviced from project cash flows, typically secured by concessions, offtake agreements, or availability payments. Unlike typical bonds (corporate or government), which are backed by the sponsor’s balance sheets, project bonds are backed by the cash flow generated by the financed project. They often have longer duration, are tradeable, aligned with the long operating life of infrastructure projects and best suited for pension and insurance investors.
Globally, this type of instrument has been used to finance major projects such as toll roads, power plants, and social infrastructure. For example, in Latin America, transportation and energy projects have been financed through project bonds from local and international investors, through the 144A market, a U.S. framework that allows companies to access large institutional investors without going through a full public offering. Similarly, in India, rupee-denominated project bonds have benefited from partial credit guarantees provided by institutions like Crédit Agricole Corporate and Investment Bank, which help lower investment risk and attract more investors.
In practice, project bonds can be structured in two ways: (i) as a take-out instrument, refinancing bank or DFI construction loans once an asset has reached operational stability; or (ii) as a bond issued from day one for brownfield or late-stage greenfield projects where revenue visibility is high, often supported by credit enhancements such as guarantees.
In both cases, the instrument achieves the same outcome: aligning long-term, project cash flows with the long-term liabilities of domestic institutional investors.
The enabling ecosystem is already emerging
1. Nigeria is not starting from zero. Regulatory infrastructure is already in place. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has issued detailed rules governing Project Bonds and Infrastructure Funds, creating standardized issuance structures aligned with global best practice and familiar to institutional investors. The SEC is also mulling the inclusion of the proposed rules on Credit Enhancement Service Providers in the existing rules of the Commission.
2. Market benchmarks are already available. The sovereign yield curve, published by the Debt Management Office (DMO) through its regular monthly auctions, provides a transparent reference point for pricing. This curve serves as the base risk-free rate, against which project bond spreads can be calibrated to reflect construction, operating, and sector-specific risks.
3. The National Pension Commission (PenCom) has revised its Regulation on the investment of Pension Fund Assets, increasing the amount of the country’s N25.9 trillion pension assets to be allocated to infrastructure.
4. InfraCredit has established a robust local-currency guarantee framework, supporting an aggregate guaranteed portfolio of approximately ₦270 billion. The portfolio carries a weighted average tenor of ~8 years, with demonstrated capacity to extend maturities up to 20 years. (InfraCredit 2025)
Why merchant banks should lead
Merchant banks sit at the nexus of origination, structuring, underwriting, and distribution, and they need to work with projects sponsors, financiers and government to develop a pipeline of bankable infrastructure projects. A pipeline of bankable infrastructure projects is important to attract investors as they prefer to invest in an economy with a recognizable pipeline. A pipeline also suggests that a structured and well-thought-out approach was adopted, and the projects would have identified all the major risks and the proposed mitigants to address the identified risks.
This “banks-as-catalysts” model, an economic framework that states banks can play an active and creative role in promoting industrialization and economic development, particularly in emerging markets, can be adopted to structure and mobilise domestic private finance into Infrastructure projects.
Coronation Merchant Bank’s role and vision
At Coronation, we believe the identification, structuring and testing of bankable infrastructure projects are the constraints to mobilization of private capital into the infrastructure space. We bring an integrated platform across Financial Advisory, Capital Mobilization, Commercial Debt, Private Debt and Alternative Financing to identify, structure, underwrite and distribute infrastructure debt into domestic institutions. The Bank works with DFIs, guarantee providers and other banks to scale issuance. Our franchise has supported infrastructure debt issuances via the capital markets, likewise Nigerian corporates and the Government.
From Insight to Execution
If you are considering the issuance of a project bond or you want to discuss pipeline readiness, kindly contact [email protected] or call 020-01279760.
Taiwo Olatunji, CFA is the Group Head of Investment Banking at Coronation Merchant Bank
By Blaise Udunze
At the Annual Bankers’ Dinner, when the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, Yemi Cardoso, recently stated that Nigeria had “turned a decisive corner,” his remark aimed to convey assurance that inflation was decelerating with headline inflation eased to 16.05percent and food inflation retreating to 13.12 percent, the exchange rate was stabilizing, and foreign reserves ($46.7 billion) had climbed to a seven-year peak. However, beneath this announcement, a grimmer and conflicting economic situation challenges households, businesses, and investors daily.
Stability is not announced; it is felt. For millions of Nigerians, however, what they are facing instead are increasing difficulties, declining abilities, diminished buying power, and susceptibilities that dispute any assertion of a steady macroeconomic path.
The 303rd MPC gathering was the most significant in recent times, revealing policies and statements that prompt more questions than clarifications. It highlighted an economy striving to appear stable, in theory, while the actual sector struggles to breathe.
This narrative explores why Cardoso’s assertion of “restored stability” is based on a delicate and partial foundation, and why Nigeria continues to be distant from attaining economic robustness.
Manufacturing: The Core of Genuine Stability Remains Struggling to Survive
A strong economy is characterized by growth in production, increased investment, and competitive industries. Nigeria lacks all of these elements.
The Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN) expressed this clearly in its response to the MPC’s choice to keep the Monetary Policy Rate at 27 percent. MAN stated that elevated interest rates are now” hindering production, deterring investment, and weakening competitiveness.
Producers are presently taking loans at rates between 30-37 percent, an environment that renders growth unfeasible and survival challenging. MAN’s Director-General, Segun Ajayi-Kadir, emphasized that although stable exchange rates matter, no genuine industry can endure borrowing expenses to those charged by loan sharks.
The CBN’s choice to maintain elevated interest rates is based on drawing foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) to support the naira’s stability. However, FPIs are well-known for being short-term, speculative, and reactive to disturbances. They do not signify long-term stability. Do they represent genuine economic development?
Genuine stability demands assurance, in manufacturing beyond financial tightening. Manufacturers are expressing, clearly and persistently, that no progress has been made.
Oil Output and Revenue: The Engine Behind Nigeria’s Stability Is Misfiring
Nigeria’s oil sector, which is the backbone of its fiscal stability, is underperforming. The 2025 budget presumed:
- $75 per barrel oil price
- 2.06 million barrels per day production
Both objectives have fallen apart. Brent crude lingers near $62.56 under the benchmark. Contrary to the usual explanations, experts attribute the decline not mainly to external shocks but to poor reservoir management, outdated models, weak oversight, and delayed technical decisions.
Engineer Charles Deigh, a regarded expert in reservoir engineering, clearly expressed that Nigeria is experiencing production losses due to inadequate well monitoring, obsolete reservoir models, and technical choices lacking fundamental engineering precision. These shortcomings result directly in decreased revenue. By September 2025:
– Nigeria had accumulated N62.15 trillion from oil revenue
– instead of the N84.67 trillion budgeted.
– In September, the Federal Inland Revenue Service reported a startling 49.60 percent deficit in revenue from oil taxes.
A nation falling short of its main revenue goals by 50 percent cannot assert stability. Instead, it will take loans. Nigeria has taken loans.
A Stability Built on Debt, Not Productivity
Nigeria is now Africa’s largest borrower, and the world’s third-biggest borrower from the World Bank’s IDA, with $18.5 billion in commitments. By mid-2025, the total public debt amounts to N152.4 trillion, marking a 348.6 percent rise since 2023.
From July to October 2025, the government secured contracts for: $24.79 billion, €4 billion, ¥15 billion, N757 billion, and $500 million Sukuk loans. Nevertheless, in spite of these acquisitions, infrastructure continues to be manufacturing remains limited, and social welfare is still insufficient.
Uche Uwaleke, a finance and capital markets professor, cautions that Nigeria’s debt service ratio is “detrimental to growth.” Currently, the government spends one out of every four naira it earns on servicing debts. Taking on debt is not harmful in itself, provided it finances projects that pay for themselves. In Nigeria, it supports subsistence. A country funding today, through the labour of the future, cannot assert restored stability.
The Naira: A Currency Supported by Fragile Pillars
The CBN contends that elevated interest rates and enhanced market confidence have contributed to the naira’s stabilisation. However, this steadiness is based on grounds that cannot endure even the slightest global disturbance. The pillars of a stable currency are:
– Rising domestic production
– Expanding exports
– Reliable energy supply
– Strong security
– A thriving manufacturing base
None of these is Nigeria’s current reality. What Nigeria actually receives is capital from portfolio investors, and past events (2014, 2018, 2020, 2022) have demonstrated how rapidly these funds disappear.
Unemployment: “Stable” Figures Mask a Rising Youth Crisis
The CBN touts a reported unemployment rate of 4.3 percent. However, the International Labour Organisation (ILO), along with economists, cautions that the approach conceals more serious issues in the labour market.
Youth joblessness has increased to 6.5 percent, and the Nigerian Economic Summit Group cautions that Nigeria needs to generate 27 million formal employment opportunities by 2030 or else confront a disastrous labour crisis. The employment crisis is a ticking time bomb. A country cannot maintain stability when its youth are inactive, disheartened, and financially marginalized.
FDI Continues to Lag Despite CBN’s Positive Outlook
During the 2025 Nigerian Economic Summit, NESG Chairman, Niyi Yusuf stated that Nigeria’s efforts to attract direct investment (FDI) continue to be sluggish despite the implementation of reforms. FDI genuinely reflects investor trust, not portfolio inflows. FDI signifies enduring dedication, manufacturing plants, employment, and generating value. Nigeria does not have any of this as of now. An economy unable to draw long-term investments lacks stability.
139 Million Nigerians in Poverty: What Stability?
The recent development report from the World Bank estimates that 139 million Nigerians are living in poverty, and more than half of the population faces daily struggles. This is not stability. It is a humanitarian and economic crisis.
Food inflation continues to stay structurally high. The cost of a food basket has risen five times since 2019. Low-income families currently allocate much, as 70 percent of their earnings to food. A government cannot claim stability when its citizens go hungry.
A Fragile, Failing Power Sector
The power sector, another cornerstone of economic stability, is failing. Over 90 million Nigerians are without access to electricity, which is one of the highest figures globally. Even homes linked to the grid get 6.6 hours of electricity daily. Companies allocate funds to generators rather than to technology, innovation, or growth. Nigeria has now emerged as the biggest importer of solar panels in Africa, not due to environmental goals but because the national power grid is unreliable.
A country cannot achieve stability if it is unable to supply electricity to its residences, industrial plants, or medical centers.
Insecurity: The Silent Pillar Undermining All Economic Policy
Banditry, terrorism, abduction, and militant attacks persist in agriculture, manufacturing, logistics, and investment. Nigeria forfeits $15 billion each year due to insecurity and resources that might have fueled industrial development.
Food price increases are mainly caused by instability, and farmers are unable to cultivate, gather, or deliver their products. Nevertheless, the MPC approaches inflation predominantly as an issue of policy. In a country where insecurity fundamentally hinders the economy tightening policy cannot ensure stability.
Inflation Figures Under Suspicion
Questions have also emerged regarding the reliability of inflation data. Dr. Tilewa Adebajo, an economist, affirmed that the CBN might not entirely rely on the NBS inflation figures, highlighting increasing apprehension. A sharp decrease to 16 percent inflation clashes with market conditions.
Families are facing the food costs in two decades. Costs, for transport, housing rent, education fees, and necessary items keep increasing. Food prices cannot decline when farmers are abandoning their farmlands and fleeing for safety. If inflation figures are manipulated or partial, the stability story based on them becomes deceptive. There is, quite frankly, a significant disconnect between governance and the lived experience of ordinary Nigerians.
Foreign Reserves: A Story of Headlines vs Reality
Even Nigeria’s celebrated foreign reserves require scrutiny. The CBN reported $46.7 billion in reserves. However, a closer examination shows:
– Net usable reserves are only $23.11 billion
– The remainder is connected to commitments, swaps, and debts
Gross reserves make the news. Net reserves protect the currency. The difference is too large to assert that the naira is stable.
Nigeria’s Economic Contradiction: Stability at the Top, Volatility at the Bottom
In reality, Nigeria is caught between official proclamations of stability and lived experiences of volatility. The disparity between the CBN’s account and the actual experiences of Nigerians highlights a reality:
– Macroeconomic changes have failed to convert into improvements in human well-being.
– Nigeria might appear stable officially. Its citizens are experiencing instability in truth.
– Taking on debt is increasing
– Poverty is worsening
– Manufacturing is contracting
– Jobs are scarce
– Authority is breaking down
– Feelings of insecurity are growing stronger
– Inflation is undermining dignity
– Companies are struggling to breathe
– Capital is escaping
– Misery, among humans, is expanding
A strong economy is one where advancement is experienced, not announced.
What Genuine Stability Demands
To move from paper stability to real stability, Nigeria must:
- Support domestic production. Cut interest rates for manufacturers, reduce borrowing costs, and provide targeted credit.
- Fix oil production technically. Revamp reservoir engineering, implement surveillance. Allocate resources to adequate technical oversight.
- Prioritize security. Secure farmlands, highways, and industrial corridors.
- Reform the power sector. Invest in grid reliability, renewable integration, and private-sector-led transmission.
- Attract real FDI. Streamline rules, enhance the framework, and maintain consistent policy guidance.
- Anchor debt on productive projects. Take loans exclusively for infrastructure projects that produce income.
- Prioritize reforms in welfare. Adopt crisis-responsive, domestically funded safety nets.
- Improve transparency. Ensure inflation, employment, and reserve data reflect reality.
Stability Is Not Given; It Has to Be Achieved
The CBN Governor’s statement of “renewed stability” is hopeful. It remains unproven. The inconsistencies are glaring, the statistics too. The real-world experiences are too harsh. Nigerians require outcomes, not slogans. Stability is gauged not through statements on policy but by whether:
– Manufacturing plants are creating (factories operate at full capacity),
– Food is affordable,
– Young people have jobs
– The naira is strong without artificial props,
– Electricity is reliable,
– Security is assured,
– Poverty rates are decreasing.
Unless these conditions are met, Nigeria is not experiencing a period of restored stability. Instead, it is going through a phase of recovery, one that will collapse if the actual economy keeps worsening while decision-makers prematurely applaud their successes. The CBN must rethink its approach. Nigeria needs productive stability, not statistical stability.
Blaise, a journalist and PR professional, writes from Lagos, can be reached via: [email protected]
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