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Economic Diversification and Nigeria’s Feeble Attempts

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Economics of Diversification

By Jerome-Mario Utomi

It is no longer news that across the globe, there exists persistent call on nations, regions and continents to shift toward a more varied structure of domestic production and trade as it is not only a strategy to encourage positive economic growth and development but with a view to increasing productivity, creating jobs and providing the base for sustained poverty-reducing growth.

What has however caused concern is the paltry number of nations and leaders particularly in Africa as a continent that has keyed into such relentless calls.

Adding fillip to the above worry/claim is the well quoted World Bank Group report which among other observations noted that economic diversification remains a challenge for most developing countries and is arguably greatest for countries with the lowest incomes as well as for those whose economies are small, landlocked and/or dominated by primary commodity dependence.

It submitted that for such countries, economic diversification is inextricably linked with the structural transformation of their economies and the achievement of higher levels of productivity resulting from the movement of economic resources within and between economic sectors.

Take Africa as an example, aside its inability to diversify which has made it aid receiving continent, continually look up to continents such as; Asia, Europe and America for aid after almost 60 years of independence, the failure, in my view, explains why Africa as a continent despite being the second most-populated continent in the world (1.2 billion people), represents only 1.4% of the world Manufacturing Value added in the first quarter of 2020.

Also, the effect of the continent failure to diversify is signposted in the painful reality that out of about 54 countries that made up the continent, only South Africa qualified as a member of BRICS, an acronym coined for an association of five major emerging national economies: Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.

While the piece laments this challenge, it is relevant to the present discourse to underline that this tragedy is well-rooted in, and has spread its wings in Nigeria as a country.

To illustrate this claim, as part of the transformation agenda, reports have it that former President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan through his Coordinating Minister, Dr Ngozi Okonjo Iwuala, now Director-General, World Trade Organization (WTO) emphasized the need for the diversification of the economy to promote inclusive growth and job creation.

The administration aimed at achieving the objective through investment in agriculture, housing and construction, manufacturing, aviation, power, roads, rail solid minerals and the information and communication technology (ICT) sectors by both government and the private sector. These sectors the report added would gradually transform the economy and create jobs in the process as well as move the economy in the right direction.

Sadly but expected, the ideas and pontifications, like those of his predecessors, ended not just in the frames but as a mere declaration of intent.

Nevertheless, before getting into the nitty-gritty of economic decays in the present government particularly its long history of inabilities to come up with, and implement a well-foresighted plan or execute a shift toward a more varied structure of domestic production and trade, let’s cast a glance at January 2020 policy comment by one of the well-respected newspaper in Nigeria.

Specifically, while lamenting (then) that Nigeria is a country that services its debt with 50% of its annual revenue, the report noted that the country would be facing another round of fiscal headwinds this year (2920) with the mix of $83 billion debt; rising recurrent expenditure; increased cost of debt servicing; sustained fall in revenue; and about $22 billion debt plan waiting for legislative approval.

It added that it may be worse if the anticipated shocks from the global economy, like Brexit, the United States-China trade war and the interest rate policy of the Federal Reserve Bank go awry. The nation’s debt stock, currently at $83billion, comes with a huge debt service provision in excess of N2.1 trillion in 2019 but is set to rise in 2020.

This challenge stems from the country’s revenue crisis, which has remained unabating in the last five years, while the borrowings have persisted, an indication that the economy has been primed for recurring tough outcomes, the report concluded.

Unfortunately, because no one acted on those warnings, the next paragraph lays bare the consequence of such failure and failure by the Federal Government.

Recently, a report noted that the Federal Government made a total of N3.25tn in 2020, and out of which spent a total of N2.34tn on debt servicing within the year. This means that 72 per cent of the government’s revenue was spent on debt servicing.

It also puts the government’s debt servicing to revenue ratio at 72 per cent. According to the report, a review of the budget performance of the 2020 Appropriation Act In 2019 shows that the Federal Government made total revenue of N3.86tn. Within the year, debt servicing gulped N2.11tn.

This puts the Federal Government’s debt servicing to revenue ratio in 2019 at 54.66 per cent. This means that between 2019 and 2020, the Federal Government’s debt servicing to revenue ratio jumped from 54.66 per cent to 72 per cent. The report concluded

Indeed, the question may be asked why the country’s revenue crisis remained unabated in the last six years.

Within the context, the answer lies in the fundamental recognition that there is a country reputed for crude oil dependence and laced with a leadership system devoid of accountability, transparency and accuracy.

The truth is that considering the slow-growing economy but scary unemployment levels in the country, the current administration in my opinion will continue to find itself faced with difficulty accelerating the economic life cycle of the nation until they contemplate industrialization, or productive collaboration with private organizations that have surplus capital to create employment.

Another alternative recourse will probably be to move part of the job creation functions and infrastructural provision/development to the state and local government authorities via restructuring/structural interventions. While the first option (industrialization) may offer a considerable solution, the second and third options (restructuring/productive collaboration with private organizations) have more potential reward in political and socio-economic terms as well as come with reduced risk.

To achieve such a feat, power (electricity) and other infrastructure roads need to be addressed. Notably, not doing any of this, or continuing on the low growth of the economy will amplify the painful consequence of strategic mistakes made by previous administrations that failed to invest during the period of rapid economic growth.

The very key, both the state and Federal must invest in agriculture and increase its capacity in ways that will bring about an essential element of productivity policy and require a double focus on improving the quality of governance, strengthening government capacity to resolve coordination failures and facilitate information collection, as well as improving the design of interventions along the line of robustness to weak information, implementation capacity, and political-economic issues.

We must not fail to remember that ‘in the 1960s and immediately before the oil boom of the 1970s, agriculture contributed 60% to Nigeria‘s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), 70% to export, and 95% to food needs’.

Above all, our leaders must internalize the fact that revenue diversification from what development experts are saying will provide options for the nation to reduce financial risks and increase national economic stability: As a decline in particular revenue source might be offset by an increase in other revenue sources.

Jerome-Mario Utomi is the Programme Coordinator (Media and Public Policy), Social and Economic Justice Advocacy (SEJA), Lagos. He could be reached via jeromeutomi@yahoo.com/08032725374.

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Rebuilding the Nigerian Dream: How NOA is Forging a New Social Contract

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Victor Benjamin YP4T

By Victor Benjamin

For years, a pervasive sense of disillusionment has shadowed the vibrant spirit of Nigeria. Eroding trust in governance, fueled by misinformation and a disconnect between policy and public understanding, has cast a long shadow over national progress. However, a significant shift is underway, spearheaded by the National Orientation Agency (NOA). Under the astute leadership of Mallam Lanre Issa-Onilu, NOA is actively working to mend these fractures, acting as a crucial bridge between government aspirations and the people’s commitment. This vital mission aligns seamlessly with President Bola Tinubu’s administration, which profoundly recognizes that the success of any government policy ultimately hinges on the psychological and emotional investment of its citizens.

The Tinubu government isn’t merely observing NOA’s efforts; it’s actively championing them. The administration understands that Nigeria’s journey towards prosperity isn’t solely about economic reforms or administrative directives. It’s fundamentally about fostering a collective embrace of national values and civic duties by every Nigerian. This holistic approach forms the bedrock of a renewed national consciousness, aiming to ignite a sense of ownership and shared responsibility for the country’s destiny.

A cornerstone of this ambitious agenda is the forthcoming National Values Charter, an initiative poised to redefine the relationship between the government and its citizens. Expected to be formally unveiled by President Bola Tinubu himself, this Charter is designed as a foundational social contract. It will meticulously articulate the responsibilities of both the government and its citizens in the arduous yet rewarding task of nation-building.

The Charter will enshrine the “Nigerian Promise”—the government’s unwavering commitment to core principles such as equality, democracy, entrepreneurship, peace, inclusivity, freedom, and meritocracy. This promise outlines the vision for a just and equitable society where opportunities abound for all. Complementing this, the Charter will also introduce a comprehensive “Citizen’s Code.” This code will serve as a clarion call to all Nigerians, urging them to embrace fundamental virtues like discipline, duty of care, tolerance, ethical leadership, accountability, environmental awareness, and resilience. By clearly defining both rights and responsibilities, this comprehensive approach aims to cultivate a deeper sense of belonging and dignity among Nigerians, fostering a citizenry that is not only aware of its entitlements but also deeply committed to its obligations.

In direct support of President Tinubu’s audacious economic reforms and the overarching “Renewed Hope Agenda,” NOA has rolled out several impactful initiatives, designed to demystify complex policies and showcase tangible progress.

One such crucial initiative is The Explainer. Launched in early 2024, this weekly policy-focused publication serves as an invaluable tool for simplifying complex economic shifts. It breaks down intricate topics such as the fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate unification, translating economic jargon into accessible language. The Explainer illuminates how these market-driven reforms are strategically designed to stimulate national productivity, unlock doors for private investment, and enhance Nigeria’s global competitiveness. It clarifies the potential long-term benefits for ordinary Nigerians, including job creation, increased investor confidence, and improved public services. Crucially, the publication also proactively addresses public concerns and immediate challenges, countering the pervasive tide of misinformation and building a much-needed bridge of understanding between the government and its citizens.

Beyond explanation, NOA is diligently working to showcase tangible progress and flip the narrative of cynicism that often plagues public discourse. The agency actively promotes positive stories of ordinary Nigerians who are directly benefiting from recent reforms. This includes heartwarming examples such as students accessing loans from the Nigeria Education Loan Fund, a critical initiative that restores hope and dignity to countless families striving for educational advancement. It also highlights vehicle owners successfully transitioning to Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) as a more affordable and sustainable energy source, and small business owners securing vital loans from the Bank of Industry to fuel their entrepreneurial dreams. NOA emphasizes consistent and transparent communication to counter negativity, demonstrating that “Hope Renewed” is not merely a slogan but is backed by concrete results, including vital improved infrastructure and a commitment to transparent governance through the discontinuation of opaque oil subsidy regimes.

NOA’s efforts extend far beyond direct policy explanations. The agency employs a wide and innovative array of channels to instill a profound sense of ownership and responsibility within the Nigerian populace.

In the digital realm, NOA leverages cutting-edge tools to enhance citizen engagement. The Mobiliser app, for instance, incorporates a vital “Say Something” feature that enables anonymous crime reporting, empowering citizens to contribute to public safety without fear. Furthermore, CLHEEAN, an innovative AI platform, provides real-time, accurate information on critical national issues, notably in local languages, making vital data accessible to a broader audience. CLHEEAN also facilitates anonymous reporting of criminal activities, reinforcing the commitment to a safer society. An interactive, AI-powered website with intelligent chat assistants and an AI engine dubbed “The Curator” further engages citizens, addressing their policy questions and providing access to national data, fostering an informed and participatory citizenry.

Complementing its digital outreach, NOA conducts extensive on-the-ground sensitisation campaigns nationwide. Dedicated NOA teams traverse the country, engaging communities on diverse issues ranging from human rights and tax reform to crucial security awareness and flood prevention. These campaigns utilize dynamic approaches such as roadshows, community forums, and interactive school sessions, ensuring that essential messages resonate and reach every segment of society, from bustling urban centers to remote rural communities.

Strategic partnerships form another critical pillar of NOA’s multi-faceted approach. The agency actively collaborates with the education sector to embed citizenship studies directly into the school curriculum, aiming to instill national values and civic pride in children from a tender age. This foundational approach seeks to mold future generations into responsible and patriotic citizens. NOA also partners with the Voice of Nigeria (VON) to combat the proliferation of misinformation and promote authentic Nigerian narratives, safeguarding the integrity of public discourse. Furthermore, a crucial partnership with the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) facilitates nationwide campaigns against cybercrime, promoting financial literacy and ethical entrepreneurship, particularly among vulnerable youth who are often susceptible to such illicit activities.

Through these comprehensive and multi-faceted approaches, the National Orientation Agency is not just informing Nigerians; it is striving to ensure they are emotionally and intellectually invested in the country’s growth. By fostering a culture of excellence, patriotism, and civic responsibility, NOA is fundamentally transforming how the government communicates with its people. Its ultimate aspiration is to build a just, united, and value-driven Nigeria—a nation built on shared purpose, collective agreement, and a renewed sense of hope.

Victor Benjamin is the West/South South Director of YP4T

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An Open Letter to Comrade Festus Osifo, National President, PENGASSAN

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Comrade Festus Osifo

By Concerned Members of PENGASSAN

Dear Comrade Festus Osifo,

It is with great concern, deep disappointment, and an unshakable sense of duty to over 523 members of the Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (PENGASSAN), Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) Branch, that we write to call the attention of the National Leadership of our great union to the continued assault on principles, transparency, and constitutional order within our Union—which has clearly infringed on the right of members to have a union that respects members’ viewpoints on those who will stand as their elected representatives.

We know our great union stands for justice and fairness to all members. But the recent imposition of an illegal Caretaker Committee (CTC) on our Branch without due process, consultation, or respect for the PENGASSAN Constitution is not just a disregard for our collective intelligence—it is a blatant subversion of the laws and values upon which PENGASSAN was built. As we know, the vision of our great union is to be the most influential trade union by providing excellent services to its members, building strong relationships with social partners and stakeholders, and positively influencing national decisions.

As a reminder, Comrade President, our Branch’s 3-year PENGASSAN tenure expired on May 27, 2025. In line with  our constitutional provisions and  best practices, a Branch Congress was duly convened on June 14, 2025, where a valid Electoral Committee (ELECO) was constituted to oversee elections. However, rather than supporting this transparent process, national leadership chose to unilaterally and undemocratically impose a Caretaker Committee chaired by your known associate, Comrade Tony Iziogba—a man with no mandate from the Branch Congress and no legitimacy under our Constitution.

“Your siding with illegal actions are in gross violation of the PENGASSAN constitutional provisions of : Rule 20.1 states clearly that elected officers hold office for a term of three years. Nowhere in this rule is it provided that a Caretaker Committee shall take over automatically after tenure expiration. Rule 31.4 provides that a Caretaker Committee may only be constituted after the dissolution of a BECOM through disciplinary procedures—not simply due to tenure expiration. Rule 32.7 mandates that an Ethical Practices, Grievance and Disciplinary Committee (EGDC) at the Branch level must consist of two elected BECOM members and three nominated members, chaired by the Branch IRO. None of these conditions were met in your Caretaker Committee setup.”

Schedules 3.3 and 3.5 clearly outline the process for resolving Branch disputes through the CWC and NEC—not by unilateral directives or external imposition. Rule 3.7, which speaks of inspiring discipline and professionalism, has been repeatedly ignored in this ongoing crisis.”

The issue we raise to the leadership of the Union is the even more troubling fact that a disciplinary letter was issued to comrades who dared to question the legitimacy of this illegal process—a direct attempt to silence dissent and criminalize free expression within a union that should be a bastion of democracy. This is not the first time our Branch has faced anti-democratic practices. When the NMDPRA Branch was first formed three years ago, it began not with an election but with an imposed caretaker committee. That committee handpicked successors without consulting members. Now, history is repeating itself. Comrade Ayo was imposed then. Now, Comrade Tony is being imposed again.

We concerned that members will not succumb to any intimidation or to recycling the same faces, ideas, and loyalties while ignoring the democratic rights of over 523 unionized staff. We are not asking for much. We simply demand what is just, constitutional, and democratic.

We, the concerned members, demand the reinstatement of the ELECO constituted at the June 14 Congress. We call for a hybrid Branch election that allows inclusive participation—especially for members across Nigeria who have never had a voice in the leadership of the Branch.

We, the concerned members, urge respect for the provisions of the 2022 PENGASSAN Constitution. End all harassment, intimidation, and victimization of members who speak out. Stop using national offices to reward loyalty and suppress dissent. And, most urgently, allow the will of the people—the 2/3 majority of Congress—to determine their own leadership.

We, the Concerned Members of PENGASSAN, know the Union is not your personal property, Comrade President. The Constitution is not subject to your discretion. And the voice of the Congress cannot be replaced by political convenience or backroom arrangements. In a nation grappling with democratic challenges, we had hoped our Union would set the example. Sadly, under your leadership, it is instead mimicking the worst of political suppression, godfatherism, and impunity.

The time for appeasement has passed. The time for silence has ended. The time for constitutional order, justice, and democracy is now. We will not relent. We will not be silenced. And we will never allow our Union to descend into a dictatorship of convenience.

In solidarity with hope for a better PENGASSAN, we stand for an end to dictatorship perpetrated by National leadership. Let’s NMDPRA Breathe.”

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The Nigeria Factor: Parallels to Systemic Failures Like the Titanic

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map of nigeria

Saifullahi Attahir

Around 7:00 am, I was awakened by a call from one of my friends. He wanted me to inquire on his behalf about getting admission into a College of Health Sciences I attended about a decade ago. During our conversation, he told me about another contact he got from another school. Considering the security situation in that state, he could get admission into the final year, take the final professional exams, and be awarded a certified healthcare practitioner.

When I asked further about how possible this was, considering his lack of knowledge in that field, I found out he had studied another related healthcare course and was looking to switch. His answer was, “You know the ‘Nigeria factor.'” I was dumbstruck and not prepared for this update. I was naive, not expecting this level of decadence. How does it happen that a person could obtain a certificate in any health-related course without the required rigorous training and hands-on skills? I thought this could happen somewhere, but not in my beloved profession. Our love for shortcuts is going to ruin us. If this “Nigeria factor” continues, it will definitely consume us.

It wouldn’t be surprising if some of our elites don’t believe in being treated at our local facilities. How sure are you that such a quack isn’t in the teaching hospitals or the National Hospital Abuja? The system that allows them to get a certificate without the required training is the same system that could get them employed ahead of the competent and well-grounded ones. With the way things are going, I couldn’t completely blame those who could afford the best private hospitals or abroad clinics.

Eight years passed, and one man was incapable of rectifying this mess. It was a systematic and complex problem that requires collective efforts. Buhari wasn’t present when the candidate paid the highest sum to that school director or head of department to get admission. Buhari or Tinubu wasn’t present when the National Board of Examination failed to do the necessary checks before approving those candidates or verifying whether they attained the required training. Jonathan or Obasanjo wasn’t present when the agency responsible for recruitment employed such reckless individuals without due investigation of their accredited institution or their level of expertise.

We may argue that our universities are well-regulated and only produce competent individuals. However, universities only produce the senior nursing officers, medical doctors, senior pharmacists, radiographers, or medical laboratory scientists. What about those responsible for taking your blood sample or giving your child vaccine doses? I’m not questioning the entire workforce. Indeed, there were a lot of hard-working and competent personnel, but with the way things are moving, there was a lot more quackery.

If things like this can occur in the most regulated sector like healthcare, how sure are you of other professions? What guarantee do you have over the NAFDAC recommendation on certain products? How assured are we of the technicians managing our airline services and the local engineers constructing our bridges? The system that you seem smart enough to outmaneuver, driving a car without the necessary papers and licenses, might be the very system that produces some of your teachers, drivers, and law enforcement whom you entrust your life to. This creates a form of distrust in Nigeria.

I was interested in a documentary aired by the BBC about Heathrow Airport in the UK. Although it’s an international airport and one of the best globally, comparing the standardized system there could be absurd. Still, it’s obvious the British have a culture of meticulous attention to details and ensuring everything is done correctly with due process. It’s not surprising that there are the least number of automobile accidents, maternal mortalities, electricity power grid collapses, and flood disasters.

In a system where everyone took responsibility as if the success or failure of a task depended on them, life could have been nicer. But in our kind of society, we like the blame game too much. Every failure is attributed to the leaders at the top, sometimes ridiculously upon a single soul, the president. In the movie Titanic, it’s obvious the fateful accident of the mega ship was attributed to some technical errors done by the crew assistants, not just the captain alone.

Imagine a minor negligence that led to such a catastrophe and compare that to the thousands of such mistakes, even greater, that we commit daily in our various walks of life. The deliberate 15 minutes late you were could have been the cause of someone’s death. The intentional habit of switching your phone off on duty could have been the source of losing someone’s life. The lack of a proper checklist could have been the cause of a conflagration, a dam breakage, a bridge collapse, or a building collapse. Trying to do the right thing doesn’t cost more than doing otherwise. It builds your character, gives satisfaction, and pays in the long run.

How sustainable is this Nigeria?

Attahir wrote from Federal University Dutse. saifullahiattahir93@gmail.com

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