Feature/OPED
Endure the Birth Pangs, Nigerians!
By Kingsley Omose
A transition is taking place in the downstream oil and gas sector that can be regarded as the pre-NNPC era and post-NNPC era on petroleum products production and distribution.
The process of transitioning from pregnancy to the actual birth of a baby for a woman is called BIRTH PANGS, and as much as the baby in the womb has gotten accustomed to that environment for 9 months, being born is actually in that baby’s best interest.
So, these birth pangs that Nigerians are currently going through with acute fuel scarcity across the country and the attendant pains, sufferings, and difficulties associated with this are in the best interest of Nigerians.
Within the confines of the womb, the foetus, it is not even regarded as a baby yet, is dependent on the woman carrying the pregnancy for nourishment and air needed for survival, and for overall protection and well-being.
For the 9 months of the pregnancy, other than the occasional kicks, there is little or nothing that the foetus can do other than patiently wait, endure, and sacrifice, but above all, to grow to a state of viability to survive the birth process.
Some foetuses are unfortunate to be hosted by women who take various steps advertently or inadvertently to terminate the pregnancy so that they can be rid of the burden and constraints of being pregnant and to live life solely for pleasing and satisfying themselves.
The sad reality for Nigerians is that their experiences have been like the foetus carried by a Nigerian state with its governing apparatus (Ministries, Departments, and Agencies) and governing officials deliberately intended in their abortion and doing everything possible to achieve this.
Nowhere is this more visible in Nigeria than in the situation regarding the availability of petroleum products, value-added products that come from the refining of crude oil, a resource that Nigeria has in abundance.
You would expect that a country floating on crude oil and having the capacity to be the 6th largest producer in the world would also be floating in overabundance in the availability of petroleum products needed as a primary energy source to power the activities of Nigeria.
If you speak to anyone with an elementary understanding of economics, they will tell you that a basic theory of economics is that the more energy that is consumed in a country, the more the economic activities of the people and the better their well-being and welfare. This is called the Energy-GDP nexus.
According to Meta AI, “There is a strong positive relationship between energy consumption and economic growth. In other words:
– As energy consumption increases, economic activity and growth also tend to increase.
– Conversely, as economic activity and growth increase, energy consumption also tends to rise.
This means that energy consumption can be seen as an indicator of a country’s economic size and growth. The more energy a country consumes, the larger its economy is likely to be, and the more economic activity is taking place.”
In Nigeria, the Federal Government through its MDAs and governing officials, has stood this basic economic theory of Energy-GDP nexus on its head by deliberately and consistently acting to deny Nigerians access to the energy needed to power their economic activities and the corresponding economic growth.
Through NNPC Ltd, the government has not been able to maintain not to talk of an increase in crude oil production, which has fallen from a possible 2.47 million barrels a day to 1.3 million a day, out of which only 800,000 barrels of crude oil a day come to Nigeria after it’s producing partners take their share.
In the downstream sector, the 4 government-owned refineries in Port Harcourt (2), Warri, and Kaduna, operated by NNPC Ltd, have not produced petroleum products for over 20 years despite having their full complement of staff and undergoing several Turn Around Maintenance costing over 12 billion USD.
This has seen the government through NNPC Ltd resorting to petroleum products importation, which has again exposed Nigerians to abuses from the importation of low-quality petroleum products to the emergence of what is called fuel subsidy or under-recovery.
The fuel subsidy or under-recovery disaster has caused over 12 trillion Naira loss to the Nigerian people seeing it has been an opportunity to declare petroleum products daily consumption that has nothing to do with the economic activities of the people, and which correspondingly has even reveresd the country’s Energy-GDP nexus.
Like the pregnant woman trying vigorously to abort her pregnancy, the Federal Government through NNPC Ltd has vigorously tried to truncate the economic activities of Nigerians and, by extension, their well-being and welfare by stifling their energy consumption.
It has taken Aliko Dangote, putting down 20 billion USD to build the 650,000 barrels a day of crude oil refining capacity to provide a ray of hope that the Energy-GDP nexus of Nigeria can now be set on an upward trajectory through reliable, consistent and adequate provision of petroleum products to power the economic activities of Nigerians.
So, whether it is the ongoing opposition from those in government through its regulatory agencies, the NNPC Ltd, tank farm owners and operators, petroleum products marketers, and those unions in the downstream sector, Nigerians need to endure the birth pangs associated with the transition to the post-NNPC Refinery era.
There is a coming economic boom that is going to be unleashed in Nigeria once the consistency of petroleum products from Dangote Refinery is assured through reliable availability of Nigerian crude oil that will propel the Energy-GDP nexus of Nigeria in the direction of China and India, that will make irrelevant the pump price of petrol and other petroleum products.
Nigerians only have to endure the birth pangs.
Kingsley Omose is a Public Policy Analyst
Feature/OPED
The Future of Payments: Key Trends to Watch in 2025
By Luke Kyohere
The global payments landscape is undergoing a rapid transformation. New technologies coupled with the rising demand for seamless, secure, and efficient transactions has spurred on an exciting new era of innovation and growth. With 2025 fast approaching, here are important trends that will shape the future of payments:
1. The rise of real-time payments
Until recently, real-time payments have been used in Africa for cross-border mobile money payments, but less so for traditional payments. We are seeing companies like Mastercard investing in this area, as well as central banks in Africa putting focus on this.
2. Cashless payments will increase
In 2025, we will see the continued acceleration of cashless payments across Africa. B2B payments in particular will also increase. Digital payments began between individuals but are now becoming commonplace for larger corporate transactions.
3. Digital currency will hit mainstream
In the cryptocurrency space, we will see an increase in the use of stablecoins like United States Digital Currency (USDC) and Tether (USDT) which are linked to US dollars. These will come to replace traditional cryptocurrencies as their price point is more stable. This year, many countries will begin preparing for Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), government-backed digital currencies which use blockchain.
The increased uptake of digital currencies reflects the maturity of distributed ledger technology and improved API availability.
4. Increased government oversight
As adoption of digital currencies will increase, governments will also put more focus into monitoring these flows. In particular, this will centre on companies and banks rather than individuals. The goal of this will be to control and occasionally curb runaway foreign exchange (FX) rates.
5. Business leaders buy into AI technology
In 2025, we will see many business leaders buying into AI through respected providers relying on well-researched platforms and huge data sets. Most companies don’t have the budget to invest in their own research and development in AI, so many are now opting to ‘buy’ into the technology rather than ‘build’ it themselves. Moreover, many businesses are concerned about the risks associated with data ownership and accuracy so buying software is another way to avoid this risk.
6. Continued AI Adoption in Payments
In payments, the proliferation of AI will continue to improve user experience and increase security. To detect fraud, AI is used to track patterns and payment flows in real-time. If unusual activity is detected, the technology can be used to flag or even block payments which may be fraudulent.
When it comes to user experience, we will also see AI being used to improve the interface design of payment platforms. The technology will also increasingly be used for translation for international payment platforms.
7. Rise of Super Apps
To get more from their platforms, mobile network operators are building comprehensive service platforms, integrating multiple payment experiences into a single app. This reflects the shift of many users moving from text-based services to mobile apps. Rather than offering a single service, super apps are packing many other services into a single app. For example, apps which may have previously been used primarily for lending, now have options for saving and paying bills.
8. Business strategy shift
Recent major technological changes will force business leaders to focus on much shorter prediction and reaction cycles. Because the rate of change has been unprecedented in the past year, this will force decision-makers to adapt quickly, be decisive and nimble.
As the payments space evolves, businesses, banks, and governments must continually embrace innovation, collaboration, and prioritise customer needs. These efforts build a more inclusive, secure, and efficient payment system that supports local to global economic growth – enabling true financial inclusion across borders.
Luke Kyohere is the Group Chief Product and Innovation Officer at Onafriq
Feature/OPED
Ghana’s Democratic Triumph: A Call to Action for Nigeria’s 2027 Elections
In a heartfelt statement released today, the Conference of Nigeria Political Parties (CNPP) has extended its warmest congratulations to Ghana’s President-Elect, emphasizing the importance of learning from Ghana’s recent electoral success as Nigeria gears up for its 2027 general elections.
In a statement signed by its Deputy National Publicity Secretary, Comrade James Ezema, the CNPP highlighted the need for Nigeria to reclaim its status as a leader in democratic governance in Africa.
“The recent victory of Ghana’s President-Elect is a testament to the maturity and resilience of Ghana’s democracy,” the CNPP stated. “As we celebrate this achievement, we must reflect on the lessons that Nigeria can learn from our West African neighbour.”
The CNPP’s message underscored the significance of free, fair, and credible elections, a standard that Ghana has set and one that Nigeria has previously achieved under former President Goodluck Jonathan in 2015. “It is high time for Nigeria to reclaim its position as a beacon of democracy in Africa,” the CNPP asserted, calling for a renewed commitment to the electoral process.
Central to CNPP’s message is the insistence that “the will of the people must be supreme in Nigeria’s electoral processes.” The umbrella body of all registered political parties and political associations in Nigeria CNPP emphasized the necessity of an electoral system that genuinely reflects the wishes of the Nigerian populace. “We must strive to create an environment where elections are free from manipulation, violence, and intimidation,” the CNPP urged, calling on the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to take decisive action to ensure the integrity of the electoral process.
The CNPP also expressed concern over premature declarations regarding the 2027 elections, stating, “It is disheartening to note that some individuals are already announcing that there is no vacancy in Aso Rock in 2027. This kind of statement not only undermines the democratic principles that our nation holds dear but also distracts from the pressing need for the current administration to earn the trust of the electorate.”
The CNPP viewed the upcoming elections as a pivotal moment for Nigeria. “The 2027 general elections present a unique opportunity for Nigeria to reclaim its position as a leader in democratic governance in Africa,” it remarked. The body called on all stakeholders — including the executive, legislature, judiciary, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), and civil society organisations — to collaborate in ensuring that elections are transparent, credible, and reflective of the will of the Nigerian people.
As the most populous African country prepares for the 2027 elections, the CNPP urged all Nigerians to remain vigilant and committed to democratic principles. “We must work together to ensure that our elections are free from violence, intimidation, and manipulation,” the statement stated, reaffirming the CNPP’s commitment to promoting a peaceful and credible electoral process.
In conclusion, the CNPP congratulated the President-Elect of Ghana and the Ghanaian people on their remarkable achievements.
“We look forward to learning from their experience and working together to strengthen democracy in our region,” the CNPP concluded.
Feature/OPED
The Need to Promote Equality, Equity and Fairness in Nigeria’s Proposed Tax Reforms
By Kenechukwu Aguolu
The proposed tax reform, involving four tax bills introduced by the Federal Government, has received significant criticism. Notably, it was rejected by the Governors’ Forum but was still forwarded to the National Assembly. Unlike the various bold economic decisions made by this government, concessions will likely need to be made on these tax reforms, which involve legislative amendments and therefore cannot be imposed by the executive. This article highlights the purposes of taxation, the qualities of a good tax system, and some of the implications of the proposed tax reforms.
One of the major purposes of taxation is to generate revenue for the government to finance its activities. A good tax system should raise sufficient revenue for the government to fund its operations, and support economic and infrastructural development. For any country to achieve meaningful progress, its tax-to-GDP ratio should be at least 15%. Currently, Nigeria’s tax-to-GDP ratio is less than 11%. The proposed tax reforms aim to increase this ratio to 18% within the next three years.
A good tax system should also promote income redistribution and equality by implementing progressive tax policies. In line with this, the proposed tax reforms favour low-income earners. For example, individuals earning less than one million naira annually are exempted from personal income tax. Additionally, essential goods and services such as food, accommodation, and transportation, which constitute a significant portion of household consumption for low- and middle-income groups, are to be exempted from VAT.
In addition to equality, a good tax system should ensure equity and fairness, a key area of contention surrounding the proposed reforms. If implemented, the amendments to the Value Added Tax could lead to a significant reduction in the federal allocation for some states; impairing their ability to finance government operations and development projects. The VAT amendments should be holistically revisited to promote fairness and national unity.
The establishment of a single agency to collect government taxes, the Nigeria Revenue Service, could reduce loopholes that have previously resulted in revenue losses, provided proper controls are put in place. It is logically easier to monitor revenue collection by one agency than by multiple agencies. However, this is not a magical solution. With automation, revenue collection can be seamless whether it is managed by one agency or several, as long as monitoring and accountability measures are implemented effectively.
The proposed tax reforms by the Federal Government are well-intentioned. However, all concerns raised by Nigerians should be looked into, and concessions should be made where necessary. Policies are more effective when they are adapted to suit the unique characteristics of a nation, rather than adopted wholesale. A good tax system should aim to raise sufficient revenue, ensure equitable income distribution, and promote equality, equity, and fairness.
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