Feature/OPED
Geopolitical Changes, African Union Reforms and Election of Next AU Commission’s Chairperson
By Professor Maurice Okoli
The African Union, a continental organisation, is heading for a new traditional face within the framework of its guiding principles. That new forthcoming era would open a new chapter and, to a large degree, determine the future of Africa, especially taking cognizance of the current global changes. In less than a year since the expiration of the African Union Chairperson’s position, an advanced search for the next candidate has begun. As stipulated by the organization’s constitution, the candidate for the powerful position is normally elected. It is tentatively planned to choose the fifth Chairperson to succeed incumbent Chairperson Moussa Faki, whose second term of office ends in February 2025.
The majority of African leaders have spoken of unprecedented reforms, carrying out a significant internal shake-up, and new blood to be pumped into the current African Union leadership and its related allied institutions. Arguments for several changes are necessary to make the continental organisation work more effectively and produce tangible results, especially now within the context of global reconfiguration. Africa is too diverse to fit together. But there are many more interests in uniting the continent. But the political, economic, and cultural diversities have to be transformed into continental strength to ensure development and growth, instead of a noticeable display of weaknesses and passive actions. It is often repeatedly claimed that the African Union needs urgent realistic reforms and some kind of rebranding of its structure as an effective instrument for rapid development, new economic architecture, and substantial growth.
In late January, Rwandan President Paul Kagamé was appointed to lead the AU institutional reform process. It was an important step towards implementing its institutional reforms, setting the Pan-African organisation’s objectives under the leadership of the Heads of State, who meet once a year at the Assembly. As Africa faces a multitude of crises, unstoppable debates have also dominated inside Africa and on international platforms over the performance of the 55-member organisation, its existing challenges, and the way forward in the fast-changing world.
A media report released on March 3, 2024, titled “Museveni Endorses Raila Odinga’s AU Chairperson Bid” and circulated in the East African region showed the publicity campaign and erratic steps taken to promote Kenyan Raila Odinga to take over as Chairman of the AU Commission. Interestingly, Raila Odinga, Kenya’s opposition leader, has readily accepted Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni’s endorsement of his candidature for African Union Commission chairperson.
In a flagship statement posted via his social media platforms, Odinga said Museveni endorsed him during a joint meeting with President William Ruto. The Azimio alliance’s leader stated that the joint meeting with President Museveni and President Ruto was organized at the Ugandan president’s invitation.
“I accepted an invitation from President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni of Uganda for a joint meeting with President William Samoei Ruto. President Museveni strongly endorsed my candidature for Chairperson of the African Union Commission,” said Odinga, showing appreciation for William Ruto for fully supporting his candidature.
The trio also discussed the AU platform for deepening regional integration within the East African Community. Apart from Presidents Ruto and Museveni, other state heads who threw their invaluable weight behind the former Prime Minister are Samia Suluhu (Tanzania), Cyril Ramaphosa (South Africa), Salva Kiir (South Sudan), and Felix Tshisekedi of the Democratic Republic of the Congo. In addition, former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo also endorsed Odinga, saying he is the best candidate to replace the outgoing chair, Moussa Faki.
Raila Odinga has an unmistakable political influence. He was born into a modest political family and grew up in politics. His profound perspectives suggest he operates as a pivotal figure within power dynamics, and his decision-making capacity is perceived as absolutely pragmatic. Odinga, most observers say, possesses an assertive leadership style and always expresses a steadfast interest in the complexity of a development-oriented society. These leadership skills echo his deep-seated affection for a genuine communal, regional, and continental tradition. Odinga as a suitable candidate underscores the perfect choice to embrace and settle for the best administrator for Africa.
Nevertheless, an insight into the choice and nomination of possible candidates is fraught with intrigue and nepotism. But at a glance, Odinga envisions carving out a new, distinctive image for the African Union. His high-value knowledge and experiences, corporate business entrepreneurialism, and pragmatic new economic development thinking would probably save Africa. Narratives too indicated that Odinga would adopt a far-reaching overhauled approach and take unshakable measures towards the most significant issues across Africa. These are essential conditions for re-imaging the AU’s future.
As the history of the stipulated procedures indicates, the elected chairperson becomes the head of the African Union Commission. For instance, on January 30, 2017, after seven rounds of voting, Chad’s Moussa Faki Mahamat was elected chairperson over Nigeria’s Amina Mohamed. He was re-elected in 2021 for another four-year term, which ends in 2025. Moussa Faki Mahamat, born on June 21, 1960, was first elected as the African Union Commission (AUC) Chairperson on January 30, 2017, and assumed office in March 2017. He served previously as State Minister of Foreign Affairs for the Republic of Chad.
According to official documents researched, the Chairperson of the AUC is the Chief Executive Officer, the legal representative of the AU, and the Commission’s Chief Accounting Officer. The Chairperson of the Commission is elected by the Assembly for a four-year term, renewable once.
In broad terms, the Chairperson’s functions include overall responsibility for the Commission’s administration and finances; promoting and popularising the AU’s objectives and enhancing its performance; consulting and coordinating with key stakeholders like member states, development partners, and Regional Economic Communities (RECs); appointing and managing the Commission’s staff; and acting as a depository for all AU and OAU treaties and legal instruments.
The African Union (AU) under Moussa Faki Mahamat has made several achievements, including raising the continental external relations profile and its ascension into the Group of Twenty (G20). In September 2023, when Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India chaired the G20 summit, the G20 nations agreed to grant the African Union permanent membership status in an appreciable move aimed at offering the continent a stronger voice on important questions and to uplift its status on a higher stage. In its final declaration in New Delhi, the G20 granted the African Union full membership. The G20 consists of 19 countries and the European Union, making up about 85 percent of the global GDP and two-thirds of the world’s population.
New Delhi is also counting on earning high-profile PR points to burnish its reputation as a Global South leader. In an article published in Indian and foreign newspapers ahead of the summit, Modi wrote, “Our presidency has not only seen the largest-ever participation from African countries but has also pushed for the inclusion of the African Union as a permanent member of the G20.”
Under Moussa Mahamat’s African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), the single continental market has the potential to unite an estimated 1.4 billion people in a $2.5 trillion economic bloc. The AfCFTA opens up tremendous opportunities for both local African and foreign investors from around the world.
January 1, 2021, signaled the commencement of Africa’s journey to market integration after it was postponed by six months in 2020 following the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic. But its huge potential, which cannot be underestimated, is to generate a range of benefits through supporting trade creation, structural transformation, productive employment, and poverty reduction.
It aims at making Africa the largest common market in the world and accelerating continental integration. It is expected to reinforce the measures taken in terms of the free movement of persons, goods, and services across borders. But much depends on the collective determination and solidarity demonstrated by African leaders to face the challenges in a united and resolute manner. It depends on the strong mobilization of African leaders and the effective coordination provided by the African Union.
For this to be successful, Africa has to engage in modernising agriculture and strengthening agro-food systems by working towards its food security rather than simply accepting food packages as ‘gifts’ from so-called external friends. The next stage is to industrialise, add value to the agricultural products by processing them, and finally distribute them locally and for exports, hence the establishment of the AfCFTA. From this concrete perspective will emerge a new Africa, “the Africa we want,” which has understandably become the resounding guiding slogan.
Despite that, there have also been several critical assessments and careful analyses of developments over the past few years. The AU has made scathing remarks on the negative impacts inflicted by imperialism, neocolonialism, and Western hegemony. And further consistently called for calling for a complete overhaul of the multinational financial system to enable the pursuit of needed development goals across Africa. Paradoxically, Africa has huge resources, both natural and human, but the larger size of its population still lives in abject poverty and desperation.
At least a majority of African leaders on their side recognised the need to reform the continental organisation too. It has allegedly been manipulated by external powers, and to a large extent, internal deficiencies and weaknesses are still persistent on the continent. These include the absence of the fundamentals of democracy, good governance, transparency, and accountability, primarily due to weak institutions and ineffective organs of the state, especially the parliaments. Opposition groups are stifled, putting democracy at risk across Africa.
Rising ethnic conflicts, political-economic instability, and military appearance in politics. These have sparked widespread mass protests. Burkina Faso, Chad, Guinea, Gabon, Mali, and Niger are run by military officers. Then there was instability in Libya, Somalia, Sudan, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). The biggest vulnerabilities include the proliferation of weapons, weak border control, and unprotected industrial facilities. The inevitable impact on the achievement of Sustainable Development Goals.
Researchers say the African Union should dedicate this year to solving the various issues of instability and restoring credibility in the democratic process. Non-constitutional changes of government have multiplied in total defiance of the entire political and legal system on which the organization was founded. Never since the creation of the African Union has there been such a large number of transitions following unconstitutional changes of government in Africa. (See African Leaders Extraordinary Summit report, February 2024.)
Set up more than two decades ago, the 55-member bloc has long been criticized for being ineffectual and for taking little decisive action in the face of numerous power grabs. Some 19 presidential or general elections are scheduled on the continent in 2024, portending more challenges for the AU.
Seemingly, there is a necessity to navigate a new dynamic development paradigm within the context of multipolar relations. The multifaceted nature of obstacles has to be addressed with a spirit of vigour and valuable perspectives. There are three main directions: democracy and good governance, food security and industrialization, and economy and trade. These could lead to social inclusion and broadening employment for the youth and the next generation. They could also lead to economic growth, stability, and better life conditions across Africa. All aspects of Africa’s development are incorporated into the joint report published at the African Economic Conference 2022.
In a nutshell, the African Union and African leaders have to realign their foreign policies and back away from geopolitical insinuations, rather than take advantage of the complexities and confrontations to look for substantive opportunities to support their efforts in pursuit of building better. The beauty of Africa lies not only in its economic potential but also in its vibrant and diverse cultures.
However, it would be remiss to discuss Africa’s economic growth without addressing the challenges that persist. Poverty, inequality, and a lack of infrastructure continue to hinder progress. It is our collective responsibility to work towards addressing these issues, ensuring that the benefits of Africa’s economic growth are inclusive and sustainable.
Notwithstanding the questions raised above, Moussa Faki Mahamat has spoken of “worrying trends” during these past few years at high-level conferences and meetings, characterising the main challenges “as political instability, climate change, poverty, deficits in economic governance, and marginalisation of women and young people in development and leadership.” Another major subject of discussion has been how the AU will transition to relying on African states to fund most of its budget rather than foreign donors. For instance, the UN Security Council in December adopted a resolution to finance AU-led peace missions but capped it at 75 percent of the budget.
The 37th AU Ordinary Session of the Assembly of Heads of State and Government, at the annual convention in February 2024, stressed the necessity for practical long-term strategies and to strengthen efforts at achieving peace and stability on the continent and to attain the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and AU Agenda 2063. The AU Agenda 2063 is a comprehensive development framework for Africa.
The significant aspect of the retreat was the valuable discussions on the reform agenda. The reform agenda emphasises the need to focus on key priorities with a continental scope, realigning AU institutions to deliver on its objectives, operational efficiency, and sustainable self-financing of the Union. The retreat also reviewed the second ten-year plan of Agenda 2063, which spans from 2024 to 2033.
In the context of a multipolar geopolitical order, African leaders and the African Union should strengthen their positions regarding external partnerships. The African Union has to take up the task of developing collective approaches to the problems of maintaining peace and security, strengthening democratic processes, developing human potential, and ensuring socio-economic growth. If not, the continent risks being left behind and used as a pawn in an increasingly divided global order.
The African Union has, in a parallel direction, spearheaded Africa’s development and integration in close collaboration with African Union Member States, the Regional Economic Communities, and African citizens. The AU’s vision is to accelerate progress towards an integrated, prosperous, and inclusive Africa, at peace with itself, playing a dynamic role in the continental and global arenas, effectively driven by an accountable, efficient, and responsive Commission. These are incorporated into a single continental development program referred to as the AU Agenda 2063.
Professor Maurice Okoli is a fellow at the Institute for African Studies and the Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences. He is also a fellow at the North-Eastern Federal University of Russia. He is an expert at the Roscongress Foundation and the Valdai Discussion Club.
As an academic researcher and economist with a keen interest in current geopolitical changes and the emerging world order, Maurice Okoli frequently contributes articles for publication in reputable media portals on different aspects of the interconnection between developing and developed countries, particularly in Asia, Africa, and Europe. With comments and suggestions, he can be reached via email: markolconsult (at) gmail (dot) com.
By Blaise Udunze
Millions of Nigerian citizens are watching with cautious anticipation as the federal government begins implementing its far-reaching 2026 tax reforms. This is to say that the official assurances that the new tax regime will be fairer, simpler, and more humane, as relished by the proponents of the reforms, are being listened to by both low-income workers, small business owners, professionals, and informal sector participants.
Still, behind the optimism is a familiar worry shaped by past experience that reminds us that taxation without accountability undermines both governance credibility and the legitimacy of the tax system, thereby making it hard to believe in.
For many Nigerians, the question is not whether taxes should be paid, but whether the state has earned the moral authority to demand them, judging by the lack of accountability over the years.
The Nigerian Tax Act and the Nigerian Tax Administration Act, two of the four pillars of the 2026 reforms, came into force on January 1, reshaping how individuals and businesses are taxed. According to proponents of the reforms, particularly the Chairman of the Presidential Committee on Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms, Dr. Taiwo Oyedele, the changes are deliberately pro-poor and pro-growth. Workers earning below N800,000 annually are exempted from personal income tax. Basic food items, healthcare, education, and public transportation have been removed from the VAT net. Small companies with turnovers of N100 million or less are exempt from corporate income tax, capital gains tax, and the new development levy. Multiple tax laws have been consolidated into a unified code to reduce duplication, confusion, and harassment.
On paper, these reforms acknowledge Nigeria’s economic distress and signal a genuine attempt to lighten the burden on the majority of citizens. However, Nigeria’s tax crisis has never been about tax rates alone.
Nigerians have lived through decades of taxation that did not translate into visible development, social welfare, or improved quality of life, as this has succinctly shown that it is fundamentally about trust. No matter how progressive, for this singular reason, Nigerians see the announcement of the reforms via a long memory of disappointment and failure, while Nigerians have increasingly become vocal in demanding accountability from government at all levels, and social media has played a powerful role in amplifying public scrutiny in recent years.
Images and videos of the alleged lavish lifestyles of public office holders and their families are alarming and circulate widely, reinforcing the perception that public funds are misused or siphoned for private gain. While not all such claims are verified, the damage lies in the perception itself since governance credibility suffers when citizens believe that those entrusted with public resources live far above the realities of the people they govern.
The Nigerian Constitution, while not explicitly mandating accountability in narrow terms, establishes in Section 14 that the security and welfare of the people shall be the primary purpose of government. The state is expected to manage the economy in a manner that ensures maximum welfare, freedom, and happiness of citizens on the basis of social justice and equality. The provisions made in Section 22 further empower the media and arm it to the teeth to hold the government accountable to the people and beyond constitutional provisions, Nigeria voluntarily signed up to global transparency initiatives such as the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative, domesticated through the NEITI Act of 2007. Over the period, NEITI has helped improve disclosure in the extractive sector, as its mandate does not extend to tracking how revenues are spent, leaving a critical accountability gap.
This gap is most evident in the lived experience of Nigerian taxpayers. Intrinsically, the average Nigerian does not experience taxation as a collective investment in shared prosperity. Instead, taxation feels like an added burden layered on top of already crushing personal responsibilities. Nigerians generate their own electricity through generators, source water privately, pay for security, indirectly fund road maintenance through vehicle repairs, and bear healthcare and education costs out of pocket. When citizens pay taxes and still bear the full cost of survival, taxation begins to resemble organized extraction rather than civic contribution.
For instance, the stories of Mr. George and Mr. Kunle reflect this reality. Mr. George, is an earned salary worker who has personal income tax deducted monthly through PAYE. Meanwhile, George also pays for electricity, security, water, road repairs, and private schooling. What about Mr. Kunle, who is a small business owner and chooses not to pay taxes voluntarily with the belief that the government has failed to meet its obligations and other rights? Their frustration is widely shared. According to the IMF, only about 10 million Nigerians out of a labour force of 77 million are registered taxpayers. This low compliance is not a product of ignorance alone, but of a deeply broken social contract.
Over the years, successive governments have attempted to address low compliance through amnesty schemes such as the Voluntary Asset and Income Declaration Scheme. Though these initiatives temporarily expanded the tax base, their long-term impact remains questionable because compliance driven by fear of penalties or temporary incentives does not endure where trust is absent. In Nigeria, tax compliance is often compelled rather than voluntary, just as we are about to experience in this new regime, enforcement tends to replace persuasion. This approach may generate short-term revenue, but it weakens legitimacy and fuels resistance.
Academic studies on taxation and accountability in Nigeria reinforce this conclusion. While global literature suggests a strong relationship between government accountability and voluntary tax compliance, Nigeria’s experience has been distorted by weak institutions and limited political legitimacy. This should be noted by the policymakers that where citizens perceive government as unaccountable, coercion increases, collection costs rise, and evasion becomes normalized. Hence while, the result is a vicious cycle in which low trust breeds low compliance, prompting harsher enforcement that further erodes trust.
Other jurisdictions offer valuable lessons. For instance, today, a country like Sweden has one of the highest tax-to-GDP ratios in the world with remarkably high compliance rates, and this has been the norm despite imposing steep personal income taxes. The reason is simple, in the sense that transparency and visible benefits are not far-fetched. Citizens know how their taxes are spent and experience the returns through quality education, healthcare, social security, and public services. Taxation is viewed not as punishment but as a shared investment. In China, targeted tax deductions for healthcare and education similarly align taxation with social needs, reinforcing compliance through perceived fairness.
Nigeria’s challenge is not to replicate these systems mechanically, but to internalize their core principle that enables the people to comply willingly when they believe the system works and that everyone is treated fairly.
This principle is being tested anew by the recent controversy surrounding the Federal Inland Revenue Service’s (now branded as Nigeria Revenue Service) appointment of Xpress Payments Solutions Limited as a Treasury Single Account collecting agent. Though framed as a technical step toward modernizing digital tax infrastructure, the quiet nature of the appointment, coupled with limited public disclosure, has reignited fears of revenue capture and cartelization. Critics have drawn parallels with past private-sector dominance over state revenue systems, warning against concentrating sensitive national revenue functions in private hands without clear safeguards.
Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar’s reaction captured the broader public unease. He raised an alarm while warning against what he described as the nationalization of a revenue collection model that had previously raised serious transparency concerns and the Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS) has insisted that Xpress Payments is merely an additional option and not an exclusive gatekeeper, the controversy highlights a deeper issue, which authenticates the fact that in a climate of low trust, silence, and lack of clarity, suspicion. Even well-intentioned reforms can falter if citizens feel excluded from the process.
With broader concerns about governance, accountability, and democratic integrity in society, this moment coincides with it. Even the recent calls by leaders such as Rotimi Amaechi and civil society organizations like ActionAid Nigeria underscore the growing demand for responsible, transparent and people-oriented leadership as being raised from different quarters. Governance indices consistently rank Nigeria poorly on accountability, while poverty, unemployment and insecurity remain widespread. That is what, in such a context, asking citizens to trust the tax system without first restoring confidence in governance is unrealistic and unattainable.
At the core of the debate lies a fundamental moral question: when does a government have the right to tax its citizens? Taxation is not charity and it is not magic. It is a contract. Citizens surrender a portion of their income so the state can provide security, infrastructure, justice, and essential services that individuals cannot efficiently provide on their own. When this exchange functions, taxation feels legitimate. When it fails, taxation feels coercive.
No doubt, legally, the Nigerian state retains the power to tax, but morally, legitimacy depends on performance. Security is foundational. Infrastructure enables productivity. The government must understand that healthcare and education protect human capital, while transparency ensures fairness. And, when these pillars are weak, taxation loses its ethical grounding. All that Nigerians demand is not perfection; they demand evidence that their sacrifices matter.
As the implementation of the new tax reforms takes root, Nigeria stands at a defining moment. The reforms offer an opportunity to reset the social contract around taxation, broaden the tax base, and reduce dependence on dwindling oil revenues. But the point being flagged is that reform without accountability will only reproduce old failures in new forms. To buttress this further, taxation without accountability, as being practiced in the past, will invariably undermine governance credibility and erode the legitimacy of the tax system.
And, as the scripture says, you cannot put “old wine in a new wineskin.” Failure to adhere to this instruction will lead to combustion. Yesterday’s methods or mindsets on taxation will rupture new strategies, which cannot thrive or survive because of a lack of accountability.
If the government is serious about improving voluntary compliance, it must go beyond policy announcements. Hence, must demonstrate transparent use of tax revenues, strengthen oversight institutions, limit monopolistic control over revenue collection, and communicate clearly and consistently with citizens. Most importantly, it must deliver tangible improvements in the daily lives of all Nigerians.
When citizens see roads fixed, hospitals working, schools improving, and security strengthened, compliance will follow. Voluntary tax compliance is not an act of generosity; it is a rational response to trust. Fix the system, restore confidence, and Nigerians will pay, not because they are forced, but because the contract finally makes sense.
Blaise, a journalist and PR professional, writes from Lagos and can be reached via: [email protected]
By Prince Charles Dickson PhD
The phrase Dabush Kabash—popularised by the maverick Nigerian preacher Chukwuemeka Cyril Ohanaemere (Odumeje)—was never meant to be a political theory. It was theatre, prophecy-as-performance, the language of shock and spectacle. Yet, as Nigeria inches toward 2027, Dabush Kabash will not just be in the pulpit, it will find a comfortable home in our politics. It will describe the collision of ambition, uncertainty, bravado, confusion, alliances, betrayals, and loud declarations that mean everything and nothing at the same time.
This is a season where everyone is speaking, few are listening, and the ground beneath the republic feels unsettled. A year where political actors are already campaigning without calling it campaigns, negotiating without admitting it, and defecting without shame. Nigeria, once again, is rehearsing power before the curtain officially rises.
As 2027 approaches, the scramble is neither subtle nor dignified. Atiku Abubakar has made it clear—again—that he will not step down for anyone. His persistence is framed by supporters as resilience and by critics as entitlement. Either way, Atiku represents continuity in Nigerian politics: a belief that the centre must always hold him, regardless of shifting public mood.
Then there is Peter Obi, still buoyed by the aftershocks of 2023, where belief momentarily disrupted cynicism. Whether that energy can be sustained, institutionalised, or translated into broader coalitions remains an open question. Charisma without structure has limits; structure without imagination does too.
Rotimi Amaechi, restless and calculating, watches the chessboard from the sidelines, never fully out of the game. Nasir El-Rufai continues to speak as though he is both inside and outside power, simultaneously insider, critic, and ideologue. Rabiu Kwankwaso, with his disciplined base and regional gravitas, remains a reminder that Nigeria is not won on social media alone.
There are new brides—fresh aspirants, technocrats flirting with politics, and business elites suddenly discovering patriotism. There are old grooms—veterans who have contested so often that ambition has become muscle memory. Everyone is at the gate. No one wants to wait their turn.
If Nigerian politics needed a parable, Rivers State has provided one. The public rift between Nyesom Wike and Siminalayi Fubara is less about governance and more about control—who anoints, who obeys, who inherits political machinery.
Like exiles by the rivers of Babylon, both camps sing songs of loyalty and betrayal, each claiming legitimacy, each invoking the people while fighting over structures. It is a reminder that Nigerian politics is rarely ideological; it is intensely personal. Power is not just about winning elections; it is about owning outcomes, narratives, and successors.
The ruling All Progressives Congress is swelling. Defections are marketed as endorsements, and numerical strength is mistaken for moral authority. But Nigeria has seen this movie before. The People’s Democratic Party once enjoyed similar expansion during the Obasanjo years, only to implode under the weight of internal contradictions, ambition overload, and unmanaged succession.
Big tents collapse when they are not anchored by shared values. Congresses meant to unify often become theatres of exclusion. Candidate selection becomes war by other means. The question is not whether APC is growing, but whether it can survive the internal earthquakes that primaries inevitably unleash.
Meanwhile, the Labour Party stands at a crossroads. The reported ambition of Datti Baba-Ahmed to run as a principal candidate raises deeper questions about succession, internal democracy, and the danger of mistaking momentum for permanence. Movements are fragile when institutions are weak.
Coalitions are forming quietly across regions, religions, and old rivalries. Old enemies share tea; former allies exchange barbs. In Nigeria, there are no permanent friends, only temporary arithmetic. North meets South. Centre negotiates with margins. Everyone is counting delegates, governors, influencers, and platforms.
But alliances without memory are dangerous. Nigeria has a habit of forgetting why previous coalitions failed: unresolved grievances, unequal power-sharing, and elite consensus that excludes the citizens. When deals are made above the heads of the people, legitimacy becomes borrowed—and debt always comes due.
While politicians posture, Nigerians are trying to understand a new tax regime, rising costs, shrinking incomes, and policy explanations that sound more academic than humane. Economic anxiety rarely announces itself with protests at first; it shows up as withdrawal, distrust, and apathy.
Every political drama in 2026 will touch the economy. Every economic policy will shape the political mood. You cannot separate the two. The tragedy is that economic suffering is often treated as background noise while political ambition takes centre stage.
So yes; this is the year of Dabush Kabash. Not because it is funny, but because it is revealing. It captures a politics of spectacle without substance, noise without consensus, movement without direction. Everyone is declaring, few are delivering.
Yet within the chaos lies opportunity. Dabush Kabash also means collision, and collisions force choices. Nigeria will have to decide whether it wants politics as performance or politics as responsibility. Whether power remains a private prize or becomes a public trust.
History will not be kind to this season if it produces only loud men and empty alliances. But it may yet redeem itself if citizens begin to ask harder questions; not just who wants power, but for what, with whom, and at what cost.
Because beyond the theatrics, Nigeria is watching. And this time, the applause is no longer guaranteed—May Nigeria win.
By Fola Baderin
By 2030, more than 25 billion devices are expected to be connected worldwide, each one a potential gateway for both innovation and risk. Already, 87% of companies identify AI as a top business priority, and over 76% are actively using AI in their operations. These numbers reflect a profound shift: technology is no longer a backstage support act but a strategic force shaping economies, societies, and everyday life.
Artificial Intelligence (AI) and the Internet of Things (IoT) sit at the heart of this transformation. Together, they are redefining how decisions are made, how risks are managed, and how value is created across industries. From hospitals monitoring patients in real time to banks using predictive analytics to stop fraud before it happens, AI and IoT are moving from abstract concepts to everyday business tools.
Yet this expansion comes with complexity. As organisations embrace cloud platforms, remote work, and IoT‑enabled systems, their digital footprints grow larger, and so do the threats. Cybersecurity has become a frontline issue, no longer a technical afterthought but a pillar of resilience and trust.
The role of IT has changed dramatically. Once focused on maintenance and uptime, IT teams now sit at the centre of strategy and risk management. Cloud‑first architectures and interconnected networks have introduced new vulnerabilities, forcing IT leaders to act not just as problem‑solvers but as proactive partners in innovation.
AI is proving indispensable in this new environment. It can analyse vast datasets, detect anomalies, and automate responses at machine speed, capabilities that traditional approaches simply cannot match. Combined with IoT, AI delivers real‑time visibility across connected devices, enabling predictive maintenance, intelligent monitoring, and faster decision‑making. These are not abstract benefits; they are the difference between preventing a cyberattack in seconds or suffering a costly breach.
But the story is not only about opportunity. The rapid adoption of AI and IoT raises pressing questions about ethics, privacy, and governance. Automated decision‑making must be transparent, accountable, and fair. Organisations also face a widening skills gap, as demand for professionals who can responsibly manage advanced technologies outpaces supply.
Striking the right balance between innovation and control is essential. Security‑by‑design principles, strong governance frameworks, and continuous risk assessment are no longer optional extras. They are the foundation for trust in a digital economy.
Looking ahead, IT will continue to evolve as AI and IoT become embedded in everyday operations. Success depends not only on adopting advanced technologies, but on aligning them with business goals, regulations, and culture.
For Nigeria, this transformation is both a challenge and an opportunity. With its vibrant fintech sector, growing digital economy, and youthful workforce, the country is well‑placed to harness AI and IoT for growth. Lagos alone hosts hundreds of startups experimenting with AI‑driven financial services, while smart city initiatives in Abuja and other urban centres are exploring IoT for traffic management, energy efficiency, and public safety.
At the same time, Nigeria faces unique vulnerabilities. The country has one of the fastest‑growing internet populations in Africa, but also one of the most targeted by cybercriminals. Reports suggest that Africa loses over $4 billion annually to cybercrime, with Nigeria accounting for a significant share. As more devices and systems come online, the stakes will only rise.
Government policy will play a decisive role. Nigeria’s National Digital Economy Policy and Strategy (2020–2030) already highlights AI and IoT as critical enablers of growth. But translating policy into practice requires investment in infrastructure, stronger regulatory frameworks, and public‑private collaboration. Without these, the promise of AI and IoT could be undermined by weak security and poor governance.
Education and skills development are equally vital. Nigeria’s youthful population which is over 60% under the age of 25 represents a massive opportunity if properly trained. Universities and technical institutes must integrate AI, cybersecurity, and IoT into their curricula, while businesses should invest in continuous upskilling. Otherwise, the skills gap will widen, leaving organisations vulnerable and innovation stunted.
Ethics and trust must also remain central. Nigerians are increasingly aware of data privacy concerns, from mobile banking to health records. Embedding transparency and accountability into AI systems will be critical for public acceptance. Leaders must ensure that innovation does not come at the cost of fairness or human rights.
Real‑world examples already show the potential. Nigerian hospitals are beginning to explore AI‑enabled diagnostic tools, while logistics companies use IoT to track deliveries in real time. These innovations demonstrate how technology can improve lives and strengthen businesses, but they also highlight the need for robust safeguards.
Ultimately, Nigeria’s digital future will be shaped not only by technology but by leadership. IT leaders, policymakers, and entrepreneurs who embrace AI and IoT responsibly with a clear focus on security, ethics, and long‑term value creation. This will be best positioned to navigate an increasingly complex threat landscape. The question is no longer whether to adopt these technologies, but how to do so in a way that builds resilience, trust, and sustainable growth for Nigeria’s digital economy.
Fola Baderin is a cybersecurity consultant and AI advocate focused on shaping Nigeria’s digital future
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