Feature/OPED
Kogi and Bayelsa 2019 Governorship Elections: Foretelling the Outcome
By Omoshola Deji
Democracy is earning the power to govern through free, fair and credible elections. Nigeria is a democratic state, but the leadership recruitment process is largely undemocratic. Material and financial inducements determine victory, the security agencies are political, and the umpire lacks the capacity and will to conduct credible polls. Public sovereignty is departing the ballot for court as the 2019 general elections produced about a thousand petitions.
Subjecting almost every electoral victory to judicial confirmation is making voting lose its essence. Like every human, judges are prone to errors as much as they have preference. Hence, their verdicts can’t always be a true reflection of the peoples will. Several mandates have been mistakenly or deliberately upturned. Parties and candidates must strive to end their contests at the polls, instead of the court.
Nigerians hope for this as the people of Kogi and Bayelsa state elect governor on 16 November, 2019. Over 40 parties fielded candidates, but the contest is a two-horse race between the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP). APC’s David Lyon is slugging it out with PDP’s Duoye Diri in Bayelsa state. In Kogi, PDP’s Musa Wada and SDP’s Natasha Akpoti are challenging incumbent Governor Yahaya Bello of the APC. On the sideline, PDP’s Dino Melaye is facing APC’s Smart Adeyemi in the Kogi-West senatorial rerun. This piece foretells the outcome of the elections.
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Bayelsa State
Bayelsa is a riverine, less populated state of about 2.5 million persons, eight local governments, and 923,182 registered voters. Unfavorable judicial pronouncements have practically make winning an unattainable height for APC in Bayelsa state. The party’s deputy governorship candidate, Biobarakuma Degi-Eremienyo, was disqualified on November 12 for providing false information in his nomination form. On November 14, the court invalidated David Lyon’s candidacy on account that the governorship primary that produced him was improperly conducted. APC miraculously got a stay of execution at the Court of Appeal few hours after Justice Jane Inyang of Bayelsa High Court gave the ruling.
Is Nigeria’s legal system so flexible that appellants can get a stay of execution the same day judgment is delivered? Did the trial judge err by granting reliefs not sought by Heineken Lokpobiri, the plaintiff who originally prayed to be declared candidate?
In any case, APC is back on the ballot and the poll won’t be a walkover for PDP. The former made an impressive performance in the last general elections and may increase the beat. From scoring a meagre 5,000 votes in the 2015 presidential poll, APC garnered over 118,000 votes in 2019. While one may argue that the party got more votes because a Bayelsa indigene wasn’t on the ballot, as in 2015, the progression is a testament that APC is making waves in Bayelsa.
Ethno-regional balance of power would earn PDP votes. The party’s primary generated resentment, but drastic measures were taken to address the impasse. Diri and the immediate past speaker of the state assembly, Tony Isenah hails from Kolokuma Opokuma. Agitations were rife that the region cannot produce governor and speaker, while Southern Ijaw, the second largest voting population, held no key position. To calm frayed nerves, Governor Seriake Dickson and other PDP leaders forced Isenah out for Monday Obolo. The move has brightened PDP’s chance in Southern Ijaw, the APC candidate’s homeland.
A major setback for the PDP is intra-party crisis. Governor Dickson backed Duoye Diri, against the wish of ex-president Goodluck Jonathan and other bigwigs. Diri’s candidature was actualized through the Restoration Group, the dominant PDP faction in the state controlled by Dickson. Diri pulled 561 votes, while Jonathan’s preferred candidate, Timi Alaibe, scored 365 votes in the primary. Efforts to make Dickson concede the deputy governorship ticket to Alaibe’s faction failed. This made several PDP stalwarts decamp to APC and other parties. Gabriel Jonah, the incumbent deputy governor’s younger brother led the Otita Force group out of the PDP to APC. Some of the defectors have returned and PDP also won some APC decampees.
Recurring conflict of interest broke the cordial relationship between Dickson and his godfather, Jonathan. The latter wants to keep calling the shot, but the former feels he has come of age. Dickson is having his way as the party structure is firmly under his control. Many allege the Jonathans are working against PDP’s victory. Ex-first lady Patience reportedly attend an APC rally and the husband visited President Buhari within the same period. Politics is an interest driven game; hence, it is not impossible, but most unlikely that Jonathan would support APC. This is premised on the manner the party has disparaged him since he lost power in 2015.
Every governor wants to install a successor and Dickson is no exemption. He is striving to enthrone Diri to protect himself from probe and prosecution. Bayelsa’s development is incommensurable with the federal allocation and internal revenue Dickson has accrued. His government spent mammoth funds on less impactful schemes. For instance, the Bayelsa International Cargo Airport was constructed at a prodigious rate, while the population is lacking basic amenities.
Ex-governor Timipre Sylva’s appointment as Minister of State for Petroleum has energized APC in Bayelsa. Sylva hopes to raise his political clout by capturing the state. Poised to bring honey out of the rock, Sylva will use federal might and fund for APC, but the party will not sail through. The 2019 Ameachi-Rivers scenario would most-likely occur. Sylva would predictably incapacitate PDP bigwigs, flood the state with armed officers, and do all legally and illegally possible to enthrone APC. Yet the party would lose. PDP is more formidable despite the intra-party crisis and shortcomings of the Dickson administration. Duoye Diri (PDP) would win the election.
Image Credit: ResearchGate
Kogi State
‘Your Excellency’ is a title Nigerian elites admire, and do all possible to acquire. Struggle for the coveted position of governor has made Kogi the violence capital of Nigeria lately. The 2019 governorship poll will go down in history as the fiercest in the state. Yahaya Bello (APC) and Musa Wada (PDP) are not aiming for second and Natasha Akpoti (SDP) is waxing strong. They are campaigning aggressively, spewing unfulfillable promises, and going all out to win the heart of the 1,646,350 registered voters.
Kogi APC had a good outing in the 2019 general election. The party won two of the state’s three senatorial seats, and seven out of the nine House of Representative seats. While this is a pointer that APC is on course for victory, it may lose the governorship election for fielding an unpopular candidate. Bello’s track record shows he’s not deserving of governorship or any other position. He is bereft of ideas, non-tolerant, arrogant, and violent. His address during campaigns are basically hate speeches and threats, rather than a presentation of his scorecard and manifesto.
Another minus for Bello is his style of governance. He ruled Kogi like a conquered territory. His mindset is too shallow to accommodate opposite views and criticisms. You either agree with him or be hounded. He has, at different times, been embroiled in conflict with the labor union, university staffs, and the state’s Chief Judge. Bello also has issues with his former deputy, Elder Simon Achuba. He withheld Achuba’s allowances and honoraria, and influenced his unconstitutional removal from office.
A major impediment to Bello’s re-election is the non-payment of salaries in the civil service, salary-dependent state. Bello has no tenable excuse for owing as he accrued over N300 billion internally generated revenue and federal allocation within 38 months of his administration. Yet workers were unpaid and no landmark project has been commissioned. The state is enmeshed in poverty, unemployment, insecurity and underdevelopment.
Sadly, the funds that should have been used to better Kogites lot would be apparently used for vote-buying. Federal government has aided the practice by releasing N10 billion project-executed repayment fund to Bello three days to the election. It’s upsetting Buhari’s anti-corruption centered government released the fund at a time it would most certainly be used for election purposes.
Vote-buying shouldn’t be aiding poor performing politicians to victory, but most Nigerians are descendants of Esau, the biblical character who sold his birthright for a plate of porridge. Pecuniary gain makes many praise-sing and reelect failed governments. Kogi people won’t act different. Many would vote the poor performing governor after receiving peanuts. Vote-buying is not a one-party affair. PDP also induce voters and will do so again in Kogi.
Ethnic politics reigns supreme in Kogi. The population often deliver bulk votes to their tribesmen, irrespective of party. Igala tribe has numerical advantage and principally determines who carry the day. In 1999, Abubakar Audu won the governorship election under the defunct All Nigeria Peoples Party, defeating PDP which had better structures at the time. Igala people are domiciled in Kogi East and constitutes over half of the state’s voting population. PDP’s Wada and the APC deputy governorship candidate, Edwin Onoja are Igala natives.
If ethnic voting occurs, Wada would win as Bello hails from the less populated Ebira tribe. Onoja’s influence won’t earn APC majority vote; Igala people would rather be first than play second fiddle. Moreover, Wada’s allies are conversant with the tactics of winning elections in Kogi state, especially Igala land. The PDP candidate is the brother of ex-governor Idris Wada and in-law of ex-governor Ibrahim Idris.
Bello is hoping to harvest Ebira votes in Kogi Central, but Akpoti is a pain. The budding politician’s fan base is increasing outstandingly. Her supporters are largely women, a crucial and influential arm of the voting population. Akpoti knows she can’t win, but wants to split Bello’s vote in Kogi Central, not minding who her action benefits. Having her way would propel PDP to victory and Bello’s army of thugs won’t watch that happen. They allegedly set her campaign office ablaze and have been harassing her routinely. This misstep is earning Akpoti the popularity she might have joined the race for. It would also earn her sympathy votes, which may be inadequate to make her win, but sufficient to make Bello lose. In case Bello gets injured in Kogi Central (which is most unlikely), he will hope on recovering at Kogi West.
Kogi West Senatorial Rerun
One man’s misfortune is often another’s stroke of luck. Dino Melaye’s trouble turned to blessing for Wada when he needs it most. The former’s senatorial mandate was nullified and rerun is holding alongside the governorship election. Melaye who had initially distanced himself from Wada’s campaign, having lost out in the primary, backtracked upon realizing him and Wada must either rise or fall together.
Melaye is facing arch-rival Smart Adeyemi of the APC in an epic rerun. In the nullified February 2019 election, Melaye defeated Adeyemi in six out of the seven local governments constituting Kogi West. He won despite being hounded by the state and federal government, and under a party in opposition at both levels of government.
Melaye is in tune with the masses than Adeyemi and other APC bigwigs in Kogi West. James Faleke’s reconciliation with Bello will not help APC much in the district. Faleke is late Abubakar Audu’s running mate in the 2015 governorship poll. He’s been inactive in the state since he lost the party’s mandate to Bello after Audu’s demise. Bello came second in the party primary.
Faleke is currently a federal lawmaker representing Lagos. He and Adeyemi’s political strength does not match Melaye’s in Kogi West. Melaye has over 100 projects to his credit; a contribution neither Adeyemi, Faleke nor Bello has made to the district. Call it uncivilized, Melaye’s politicking is admired by his people. His comical utterances and songs has won him the hearts of the population who sees other politicians as arrogant and inaccessible.
Melaye is a grassroots politician and popular in Kogi West. He stands a chance as none of the major opposition candidates in the governorship election hails from Kogi West. Based on the prominence of ethnic voting in the state, Melaye would lose if a strong opposition governorship candidate like Bello hails from Kogi West. Favored by these odds, Melaye (PDP) would defeat Adeyemi (APC) in the senatorial rerun election. In the same vein, for governorship, Musa Wada of the PDP would garner more votes than Yahaya Bello of the APC in Kogi West.
Governorship Election Outcome
Bello’s underperformance, mis-governance, dwindling admiration, and the odd-against ethnic voting permutation would deter his win. PDP’s Wada would get bulk ethnic votes in Kogi East. Melaye’s senatorial rerun coincidence would earn Wada majority vote in Kogi West. Natasha Akpoti would split Bello’s bulk vote in Kogi Central. The lowest of Wada’s vote would come from the district, while highest would come from Kogi East.
In a free, fair and credible contest, PDP’s Musa Wada would defeat APC’s Yahaya Bello. But the election is not going to be free; not going to be fair; and not going to be credible. Thugs would disperse voters and smash ballot boxes in Wada’s stronghold. The security agencies won’t arrest disruptors, and would be grossly partisan. Above all, the Independent National Electoral Commission would be ‘remote controlled’ by the ‘powers that be’. Several votes would be cancelled and the election would be declared inconclusive.
Virtually all the election winning indicators point to Wada’s emergence, but the pundit foresees Kogi 2019 governorship election ending with a rerun, and if it does, APC’s Yahaya Bello would ultimately be declared winner.
Note: Foretelling the outcome of an election doesn’t mean the writer has access to one sacred information or the election winning strategy of any candidate. Assessing candidates’ fortes and flaws to foretell election results is a common practice in developed nations. This doesn’t mean the pundits are demeaning the electoral process or influencing election results. Bayelsans and Kogites have already decided who they would vote for, and nothing – not this prediction – can easily change their mind.
Omoshola Deji is a political and public affairs analyst. He wrote in via [email protected]
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are purely of the writer and do not necessarily reflect the position of Business Post Nigeria on the subject matter.
By Tony Ogunlowo
‘Titanic’ can mean something that is very big, gigantic or enormous and it was also the name of a ship that sank on its maiden voyage.
When the Titanic sank in 1912 it sank due to a number of avoidable factors: a ship deemed unsinkable that wasn’t fitted with watertight compartments, a ‘unprofessional’ seasoned captain who was apparently bullied into going at full speed through known ice-berg strewn waters, lack of common binoculars for the deck watch and the unavailability of enough life boats for all the passengers.
This all put together, as they say, was a recipe for disaster. Red flags were ignored.
Translating this to President Tinubu’s modern-day Nigeria, the avoidable factors that can sink the country are way too obvious.
Nigerians have long enjoyed the benefits of fuel subsidy. Costly as it is to maintain it’s enabled the economy to keep running by keeping the cost of things low. It’s removal, as can be seen, has created a domino effect, as the experts predicted, resulting in the prices of even the basic commodities skyrocketing as everyone passes on the additional costs.
With inflation currently at 32.7% and still rising, things are only going to keep on getting more and more expensive. As a result, the new minimum wage of N70,000 will have less purchasing power than the previous 2021 minimum wage of N30,000. If fuel subsidy removal was meant to boost the economy it has done the opposite and will stagnate any efforts to kickstart it.
The governments inability to control corruption or severely punish corrupt officials which is robbing the country’s coffers of billions and billions of Naira every year is a stumbling block for development.
If a corrupt government official who built 750 houses with stolen funds or an ex-governor accused of misappropriating N80 billion are allowed to walk around freely, supposedly on bail, without fear of eventual conviction it questions the message the government is sending out to future looters: if the culprits were in Russia or China the outcome will be totally different.
Even though an austerity economic policy may seem harsh like it was designed to rob Peter to pay Paul, it should be short, sharp hardship with green pastures in the foreseeable future – not ever! A good start will be to cut down on the number of foreign loans being obtained every year as their repayment can take a huge chunk out of the country’s annual income.
The new tax laws are long overdue and it should include that VAT earned in a state stays in that state: so, if your state doesn’t generate any VAT (- such as from the sale of alcohol products) you don’t get to share in what other states have collected.
Insecurity in the country is not something that started yesterday. Previous governments have blood on their hands for not nipping these insurrections in the bud before they grew to become monstrosities. You don’t pat yourself on the back, like the Nigerian Army likes to do believing you have the threat ‘under control’ – you eliminate the threat completely using what ever means necessary.
Unless the order (given by ‘Somebody’) is not to destroy them completely and to quote the late Sani Abacha,”…any insurgency that lasts more than 24 hours, a government official has a hand in it..”, no wonder Boko Haram continues to flourish and bandits like Turji Bello continue to taut the government. When the armed robber Lawrence Anini did something similar in 1986 he was fished out within months, tried and executed.
As I’ve written before the Nigerian Police Force is long past its sell by date and considering the ever growing population of Nigeria with its associated acts of anti-social behaviour its time to seriously consider devolving the NPF into state-run outfits. The growing popularity of state-run security outfits, such as Amotekun, proves this is feasible and effective.
Considering the fact the country is going through severe economic hardship the President, himself, should curb frivolous spending where possible: no more new Presidential yachts or planes ( – that includes the new one for the VP), a cap on ridiculous-no-real-job SA and SSA appointments and most important of all a cap on ALL politicians salaries and perks (which is to say if politicians are patriotic enough they’ll agree to a pay cut, forgo some of their benefits and pay for their own jaunts abroad).
Implementing the Steve Oronsaye Report which recommends merging and closing of ministries etc that has been passed over by every President since President Goodluck commissioned it in 2011 will cut government operating costs even further. This should not just be at Presidential level but extended to all the states: this will not just streamline the bloated and largely inefficient civil service but will also weed out ghost workers and white elephant project.
The ‘japa’ movement which the government is trying to discourage should be allowed to continue. It’s morally wrong for a government that can’t provide suitable employment for its citizens to try and prevent them from seeking opportunities abroad : ‘japa’ is not just limited to Nigerians, it’s a worldwide phenomenon.
People, British, American, Filipinos, are migrating worldwide to where ever there are opportunities for them to prosper. That’s the way the world works now: nobody is going to stay in a ‘sh*t-hole’ country if there are no opportunities for them to grow. Scr3w patriotism! It’s every man for himself! So, if a country can’t provide adequate employment opportunities people will pack their bags and ‘japa’! And if you restrict them from leaving the country what are they going to do? Get up to mischief – 419, cultism, kidnapping!
These same people send money back to their home countries all the time: Nigerians in diaspora in 2023 alone sent home more than $19.5 Billion Dollars. This is a huge injection of foreign currency for a country that desperately needs it.
So, just like the Titanic the warning signs are there and the inevitable that will happen should they be ignored. The question is which way is President Tinubu going to go. This is what I call the ‘Titanic Wahala’, ignore the obvious and the proverbial will hit the fan, sooner or later.
Feature/OPED
From Rental Shifts to AI Innovations: The Evolving Landscape of South Africa’s Property Sector
By Waldo Marcus
The past year has been challenging for property investors, with a sluggish economy slowing residential rental escalations in most regions in 2024.
Rental escalations are likely to be applied cautiously in 2025 to avoid vacancies, particularly given the potential for a decline in demand for rental properties as tenants, motivated by lower interest rates, migrate to property owners.
Lower rental returns will see investors looking at alternative ways to generate improved income from their investments. Short-term holiday rentals have impacted rental prices in tourist destinations, with higher rental income achieved in peak holiday times, pricing out consumers looking for long-term rental property. This trend, especially in the Western Cape, has some lobbyists calling for stricter regulations to protect consumers from inflated rental prices and a lack of affordable rental supply. SA Tourism has requested better transparency from platform providers. The risk for bond providers is that investors are financing these properties based on current tourism trends and rental income, which relies heavily on the success of platforms like Airbnb.
Consumption changes are driving commercial property growth
The commercial property sector grew in 2024 and this positive trajectory is expected to continue in 2025 as interest rates are lowered. Property developers are focusing on convenient neighbourhood retail and merging with online retailer needs. In urban areas, convenience and easy access are prioritised, while larger developments are succeeding in rural, underserved areas.
Industrial properties, particularly logistics and warehousing in the Western Cape, KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng, continue to outperform other commercial sectors. Secure and well-serviced industrial parks are in demand and expected to grow. However, traditional industrial areas around Johannesburg and the Pretoria CBD face a value collapse due to security risks and inadequate infrastructure maintenance to service the nodes.
ESG is likely to become a high-value agenda item for commercial property investors in 2025 to ensure compliance and reduce operating costs. The latest SAPOA Operating Cost Report reveals that 29% of operating expenses go to electricity costs and 23% to property taxes.
The risk of leakages
Water shortages are the next big challenge, posing a significant risk to property owners. Government and municipalities must act before it becomes another catastrophic reality like Eskom. Addressing water shortages is a dual challenge requiring both the building of and better maintenance of water infrastructure, including sewage treatment plants, and longer-term, the creation of additional reservoirs to keep up with population growth and mitigate climate change risks.
Leakages extend beyond water. Revenue leakages include missed recoveries, escalations, lease changes, and renewal options, to name a few. Increased regulatory requirements have resulted in more time being spent on compliance, and this is not expected to ease. Regulatory and compliance changes and demands on property-related companies remove valuable focus and resources from internal due diligence and processes to prevent revenue and recovery leakages. We predict more organisations will invest in technology resources to identify revenue leakages and focus on tools to drive operating costs down.
The Revolution of AI in the Property Sector
Technology – particularly AI – has become indispensable to the property sector, from AI-powered marketing and presentation tools to automated management systems. While these advancements streamline operations and enhance decision-making, they also introduce new challenges, particularly in data security and risk management.
As we move into 2025, property companies must carefully consider the appropriate balance between AI and human expertise. By striking this balance and implementing robust data protection measures, organisations can harness the power of AI while preserving their brand authenticity and competitive edge.
The Necessity of diversity in Decision-Making
Property investment is a complex and often high-stakes endeavour. As a fixed asset with emotional and financial implications, property valuations and transactions can be challenging. Recent shifts in market perception have further complicated the landscape, with divergent opinions on property’s potential as a wealth generator or alternately, a financial drain.
To navigate this complex market, accurate and reliable data is essential. Mitigating bias and leveraging diverse perspectives allows investors to make more informed decisions. Access to neutral, data-driven insights from respected sources can help uncover hidden opportunities and avoid costly mistakes.
As the property market evolves, tools and information available to investors must also adapt. Companies of all sizes are increasingly recognizing the importance of accurate, accessible, and representative data. They are investing in reliable external data sources to gain a competitive edge and make more strategic decisions.
The lingering effects of high interest rates
Persistently high interest rates raised the cost of credit and placed additional pressure on already strained consumers and businesses. They also dissuaded residential property acquisitions, leading to fewer home loan applications and a decline in the transfer of both bonded and unbonded properties in 2024. Lightstone data reveals that first-time buyer volumes slumped by 20% in 2023.
While welcome, the first two interest rate cuts will take time to filter through to residential property acquisitions. Encouragingly, demand from first-time home buyers appears to be recovering slowly with ooba Home Loans noting a rise in applications to 49.6% in September 2024, the highest reading since November 2022. We expect residential property sales to accelerate in 2025 as interest rate relief starts to filter through, albeit at a slower pace in dysfunctional municipalities.
Individual investors are increasingly choosing to maintain smaller portfolios and using tax-efficient structures such as companies and trusts. TPN anticipates that this trend will persist into 2025. Demand for buy-to-let properties has risen since late 2021, particularly in the Western Cape, followed by the Eastern Cape and Tshwane. Although this trend is expected to continue, it may slow down around mid-2025 as demand shifts from rental properties to ownership.
Municipal performance linked to property value creation
Service delivery quality, infrastructure and the maintenance of that infrastructure impact the value of property types. Well-run municipalities will continue to attract investment. Since 2020, semigration has highlighted the successes and failures of provinces and cities, resulting in decreased revenue collections for some of South Africa’s largest municipalities.
Safety and security continue to influence where South Africans choose to live and work, impacting both the residential and commercial property landscape. Mixed-use developments, secure estates, sectional title properties, and commercial parks offering efficient ways to provide enhanced security, service delivery, productive infrastructure, and maintenance spending will continue to be in demand.
An important consideration that will become increasingly significant in 2025 is the quality and accessibility of the lifestyle available in certain areas. Well-maintained and safe parks, public spaces, beaches, dams, lakes, and other recreational facilities will make these areas more appealing to tenants, businesses, and investors.
The outlook for property KPIs
Residential vacancies are expected to increase in the latter half of 2025 due to lower interest rates and improved consumer confidence. Office and retail vacancies are likely to remain stable in the first half of 2025 but will decrease should business confidence improve and if GDP targets are met. Industrial property vacancies will remain low as demand remains strong, especially in the Western Cape and infrastructure development nodes in Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal.
Rental escalations for commercial and residential properties will improve in the first half of 2025. Investors will be keen to enhance their returns after a period of sluggish economic performance with slightly healthier consumers offering the opportunity to grow rental income strategically.
The good standing of both commercial and residential tenants is expected to continue to improve as landlords use stricter vetting and collection strategies.
Rental property gross yields will, on average, stay the same as property values are expected to increase in line with rental income. The challenge for investors will be to keep operating costs down to maintain or improve net yields.
A favourable outlook for residential housing market
The outlook for the residential housing market is more favourable for 2025 than it has been for the past few years with the property market offering good value overall. The interest rate will likely be cut by a further 50bps by the third quarter of 2025, offering further relief for household finances and renewed activity at both the lower and upper ends of the market. More investments could see an increase in rental property supply and even a potential decline in rental demand as more consumers shift from renting to buying. We expect continued demand for well-managed rental properties.
Waldo Marcus is a Director at TPN from MRI Software
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