Feature/OPED
South Africa Lacks Energy Power in Emerging Multipolar World
By Kestér Kenn Klomegâh
South Africa undoubtedly boasts its power and integrity on the global stage. South Africa is known as the first economic power in Africa and as a staunch member of many international organizations. It maintains significant regional influence and is a member of the African Union, the Commonwealth of Nations, the BRICS and the G20. With an estimated 62 million (as of 2023) people of diverse cultural origins, South Africa’s economy is sustained by both local and foreign businesses. Today, it has to struggle with power outages, unsuccessful in meeting both domestic and industrial power requirements in the country.
Unlike most of the African countries, South Africa’s economy is the most industrialized and technologically advanced, the second largest economy in Africa, after Egypt and Nigeria. South Africa has a very large energy sector and is currently the only country on the African continent that possesses a nuclear power plant. The country’s primary electricity generator is Eskom, the utility is the largest producer of electricity in Africa.
Eskom’s latest energy availability factor (EAF) data reveals that mismanagement, corruption, poor maintenance, and sabotage caused power station breakdowns. Due to severe mismanagement and corruption at Eskom, the company is $22 billion in debt and unable to meet the demands of the South African power grid. It has resulted in load shedding to prevent a failure of the entire system when the demand for electricity strains the capacity of Eskom’s power-generating system.
China’s Factor in the South African Energy Crisis
China has contemplated support for the South African energy crisis since 2011 it joined BRICS. The latest development was in August 2023 during the 15th BRICS summit held in Johannesburg, South Africa signed a raft of deals with China to help it overhaul its creaky energy sector including upgrading its nuclear power plant as the government seeks to ease a severe energy crisis hobbling the economy.
The agreements, signed with Chinese power companies on the sidelines of the BRICS summit, include upgrades to the electricity transmission and distribution network. “We are moving at the speed of the fastest, we are not going to move at the speed of the slowest,” Electricity Minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa after signing the deals. China’s power transmission grid network, generation capacity and renewable energy plants are the largest in the world and were set up in a short time and it is this expertise South Africa wanted to learn from, Ramokgopa said.
South Africa’s state utility Eskom has a power supply shortfall of around 4,000 megawatts (MW), accounting for a tenth of its installed capacity and resulting in record power cuts. Its transmission capacity is highly constrained, preventing any alternative power sources from coming online. The bulk of its distribution infrastructure – an array of thousands of transformers and substations supplying power to households – often burns out leading to long hours without power.
China will help to extend the life of Eskom’s coal-fired power plants, offer technology to cut emissions at a lower cost than available elsewhere globally and China might also set up transformer and solar PV panel manufacturing facilities in the country, Ramokgopa said. It will also help South Africa upgrade its nuclear power plant, he added.
President Cyril Ramaphosa noted that China, its biggest trading partner, would supply emergency power equipment worth 167 million rand ($8.9 million) and a grant of around 500 million rand for the power sector, without giving timelines.
According to an April 2024 report from Boston University’s Global Development Policy Center and the African Economic Research Consortium, China has a unique opportunity to drive forward an energy revolution in Africa, but it must first reverse nearly two decades of neglect of green power investments there. Beijing has emerged as the continent’s biggest bilateral trading partner since the start of the century and has financed billions of dollars worth of large-scale infrastructure projects.
In 2021, China’s President Xi Jinping said the country would not build new coal-fired power projects abroad, pledging to deal with climate change by supporting the development of green and low-carbon energy. Although Africa’s green energy potential is one of the highest in the world, Chinese lending and investment have so far provided relatively little support for the continent’s energy transition.
Lending for renewables, such as solar and wind, from China’s two main development finance institutions constituted just 2% of their $52 billion of energy loans from 2000 to 2022, while more than 50% is allocated to fossil fuels. “Given current economic challenges and future energy opportunities, China can play a role in contributing to Africa’s energy access and transition through trade, finance and FDI (foreign direct investment),” the report said.
Chinese development finance institutions have been focused on investing in the extraction and export of commodities to China and in electrification projects. Chinese lending has targeted many of the same sectors that produce the oil and minerals that flow back to China. At least eight hydropower projects financed by the Export-Import Bank of China (CHEXIM), which represent 26% of all hydropower lending, are intended to support the extraction of various metals.
“Although this track has led to export revenues for African economies, African countries are not yet receiving the full benefits of renewable energy technologies,” the report said. In 2022, fossil fuels accounted for around 75% of total electricity generation in Africa and about 90% of energy consumption, the report said.
South Africa and across the rest of Africa, energy has become crucial. Without sustainable energy flow, industrialization is impossible. At the BRICS-Africa Outreach and BRICS Plus Dialogue, China’s leader Xi Jinping made concrete proposals which included: China to launch the Initiative on Supporting Africa’s Industrialization. China plans to harness resources for cooperation with Africa and support Africa in its manufacturing sector, industrialization and economic diversification. China plans to channel more resources into investment and finance industrialization.
Russia’s Renewable Energy Pledges
South Africa and Russia have excellent relations. The nuclear energy deal between South Africa and Russia has dominated official discussions over the years. Under Jacob Zuma, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a deal estimated at $76 billion to build Russian-run nuclear energy plants. Until today, that deal remains unrealizable and worse still mentioned in speeches as part of a bilateral agreement. But in the latest developments, South Africa from explicit indications unreservedly supports Russia’s ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine. During Johannesburg’s 15th BRICS summit held in August 2023, nuclear power pledges, with high enthusiasm, were renewed.
Russian Ambassador to South Africa Ilya Rogachev renewed the official pledge that Russia would help South Africa solve the problem of energy shortages. “The Russian Federation is a world leader in the field of nuclear technology. If we talk about cooperation between Russia and South Africa in this area, joint work on expanding nuclear generation in the country can play a key role in solving the problem of electricity shortages in South Africa and can lay the foundation for energy independence and technological sovereignty of the Republic of South Africa,” the diplomat told the local Russian media.
According to him, Russian companies work with advanced technologies and are ready, for their part, to offer expertise and competencies within the framework of appropriate tender procedures. Russia is ready to cooperate in the supply of fuel for nuclear power plants, the construction of new large and small nuclear capacities, the development of floating plants, the construction of a new research reactor, the development of nuclear medicine and so forth. Russia has the desire to strengthen South Africa’s energy security, and in particular, is ready to exchange useful key practices in the field of energy production, distribution and utilization.
European Union and South Africa’s Energy Cooperation
At least in 2021, the European Union has supported its concern over South Africa’s energy difficulties. Even far earlier European Union members have contributed financially. The governments of South Africa, France, Germany, the United Kingdom and the United States of America, along with the European Union, have in November 2021 announced a new ambitious, long-term ‘Just Energy Transition Partnership’ to support South Africa.
According to European Commission President, Ursula von der Leyen, the European Union kick-started the Just Energy Transition Partnership with South Africa, a first-of-its-kind global initiative for accelerating a just energy transition, and would also outline measures undertaken by the government of South Africa for long-term energy transition. EU is working with a concrete programme at the full cost of $8.5 billion, in addition to what the World Bank Board approved for Eskom, the South African energy Sector.
The President of the United States of America, Joseph R. Biden, said: “The United States is proud to partner with the Government of South Africa and the members of the International Partners Group to support South Africa’s just transition to a cleaner energy future. We welcome the comprehensive JET Investment Plan and fully support South Africa’s economy-wide energy transformation. Our support for South Africa’s clean energy and infrastructure priorities, which include efforts to provide coal miners and affected communities the assistance that they need in this transition, will help South Africa’s clean energy economy thrive.”
BRICS New Development Bank
Much praised BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) New Development Bank was established in 2015 to compete with other multilateral development banks such as the World Bank and IMF. As a multilateral development bank to mobilize resources for infrastructure and sustainable development projects in emerging markets and developed countries, it has so far limited scope of operations. It dreams of supporting developing countries, but it cannot under the circumstances and is far behind the status of the IMF and World Bank. While the IMF has offices across Africa, the NDB has only a skeleton staff in Russia and South Africa.
Although Bangladesh, Egypt, Uruguay and the United Arab Emirates also joined as members, the NDB still cannot simply compete with the already established multilateral financial institutions. In 2018, the Board of Directors of the New Development Bank approved two infrastructure and sustainable development projects in South Africa and China, with both loans aggregating $600 million. In addition, the NDB offered financial assistance during the coronavirus pandemic. With energy difficulties, there has been no report indicating loans to support South Africa’s energy sector. In future, developing countries craving to become members of BRICS should not expect any development finances from the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) New Development Bank.
World Bank’s Contribution to South Africa’s Energy Sector
Last October 2023, the World Bank approved a $1 billion loan to support South Africa’s energy sector currently experiencing worse conditions including inadequate funds for overhauling, renovation and upgrading. That the World Bank’s loan, at least, would pull South Africa out of its persistent energy crisis that has adversely hit industrial production.
“The loan endorses a significant and strategic response to South Africa’s ongoing energy crisis and the country’s goal of transitioning to a just and low carbon economy,” the World Bank said in its report. But the South African government has often said it needs nearly $80 billion over the next five years to fund its transition to greener energy sources. Energy experts have consistently suggested that South Africa undergo some necessary reforms in its energy sector to address and consequently overcome regular power cuts that have curbed economic growth and industrial production.
South Africa is not the only country experiencing energy shortage and crisis. Energy poverty is pounding some Southern African countries. Nearly all African countries are suffering from acute power deficits. Appreciably China, Russia and other external countries, at least, have shown their uttermost unique contributions to consolidate relations and save South Africa, whose diverse internal problems turn complicated but highly boasts its image as Africa’s economic power on the international stage. With extreme prestige, the United States, Europe, BRICS and the G20 consistently chuckle at the African National Congress (ANC), President Cyril Ramaphosa and the entire population of South Africa.
Feature/OPED
Ledig at One: The Year We Turned Stablecoins Into Real Liquidity for the Real World
Ever tried sending a large amount of money into or out of certain markets and felt your stomach twist a bit? That was the feeling many companies carried long before Ledig existed. Delays. Guesswork. Phone calls that sounded unsure. People waiting on people, and no reliable derivatives hedging protocol to shield them from currency swings. It was messy.
That frustration is what pushed us to open Ledig to the world a year ago. We wanted a system built for big transfers. Not a few hundred dollars. Serious amounts. A hundred thousand. A million. Even more. And we wanted it to move in seconds, not a strange timeline that no one could explain.
So, we built a setup that lets companies bring in stablecoins and get local currency out quickly. We also kept the opposite direction just as clean. Local currency in, stablecoins out. Both ways needed to feel the same because business doesn’t move in only one direction. Some clients even switch between the two during the same week.
In the early days, people sent smaller amounts to test us. Fair enough. But once they saw a large payment settle almost instantly, confidence spread. This is how we crossed our first $100M. Most of that came from global companies working across Africa and other emerging markets. These firms care about stability, not buzzwords. They just want their money to land where it should.
A lot of the magic sits behind the scenes. Wallets. Local settlement tools. A solid FX engine that adjusts as needed. None of this appears on the surface. All a user sees is a simple dashboard or a set of API calls that get the job done. They don’t even need to think about crypto. The tech exists under the hood, doing the heavy lifting quietly.
But fast movement alone wasn’t enough.
Ledig derivatives hedging protocol
There was another problem staring companies in the face. Currency swings. And they hurt. Imagine finishing a project today and waiting ninety days to get paid in a currency that drops often. By the time the company receives the money, the value has fallen so much that the profit is almost gone. This is a real issue, and many firms have lived through that shock.
This is where our derivatives hedging protocol stepped in. It lets companies lock in their value early so they don’t get caught off guard later. The product ran off-chain at first and still passed $55M in activity. Now we’re taking the derivatives hedging protocol fully on-chain. We picked Base for this next step because it fits the type of stablecoins our settlement system relies on. It also gives companies a clean, transparent environment to execute derivatives hedging protocol strategies built for actual commercial needs rather than trading games.
It took time to get here. Our team is small, which surprised a lot of people, but that worked in our favour. We avoided noise. We focused on building pieces that work. Think of it like a set of tools. One tool converts stable to fiat. Another handles fiat to stable. Another manages FX. Another supports treasury. Another delivers hedging to protect value. Each tool works alone, but when a company puts them together, they get a full workbench that covers money movement and risk in one place.
We rarely talk about revenue publicly, but the business is in a good place. The real sign of health is that companies keep trusting us with large transactions. Not one-off tests. Proper flows. The kind that supports payrolls, suppliers, expansion, and daily operations. In markets where delays can break everything, this matters.
Looking ahead, our focus for 2026 is simple. Bring the derivatives hedging protocol on-chain at scale. Grow our liquidity pipeline so larger payments stay just as smooth as they are today. Strengthen our licensing and regulatory setup, so bigger institutions can work with us without extra steps. And continue tightening the entire system so companies entering emerging markets can do it with far less stress.
Ledig is one year old. The mission is still the same. Move large amounts of money fast. Protect companies from painful currency swings using a battle-tested derivatives hedging protocol. Build tools they can rely on without worrying about how the background tech works.
This is just the beginning.
Feature/OPED
If You Understand Nigeria, You Fit Craze
By Prince Charles Dickson PhD
There is a popular Nigerian lingo cum proverb that has graduated from street humour to philosophical thesis: “If dem explain Nigeria give you and you understand am, you fit craze.” It sounds funny. It is funny. But like most Nigerian jokes, it is also dangerously accurate.
Catherine’s story from Kubwa Road is the kind of thing that does not need embellishment. Nigeria already embellishes itself. Picture this: a pedestrian bridge built for pedestrians. A bridge whose sole job description in life is to allow human beings cross a deadly highway without dying. And yet, under this very bridge, pedestrians are crossing the road. Not illegally on their own this time, but with the active assistance of a uniformed Road Safety officer who stops traffic so that people can jaywalk under a bridge built to stop jaywalking.
At that point, sanity resigns.
You expect the officer to enforce the law: “Use the bridge.” Instead, he enforces survival: “Let nobody die today.” And therein lies the Nigerian paradox. The officer is not wicked. In fact, he is humane. He chooses immediate life over abstract order. But his humanity quietly murders the system. His kindness baptises lawlessness. His good intention tells the pedestrian: you are right; the bridge is optional.
Nigeria is full of such tragic kindness.
We build systems and then emotionally sabotage them. We complain about lack of infrastructure, but when infrastructure shows up, we treat it like an optional suggestion. Pedestrian bridges become decorative monuments. Traffic lights become Christmas decorations. Zebra crossings become modern art—beautiful, symbolic, and useless.
Ask the pedestrians why they won’t use the bridge and you’ll hear a sermon:
“It’s too stressful to climb.”
“It’s far from my bus stop.”
“My knee dey pain me.”
“I no get time.”
“Thieves dey up there.”
All valid explanations. None a justification. Because the same person that cannot climb a bridge will sprint across ten lanes of oncoming traffic with Olympic-level agility. Suddenly, arthritis respects urgency.
But Nigeria does not punish inconsistency; it rewards it.
So, the Road Safety officer becomes a moral hostage. Arrest the pedestrians and risk chaos, insults, possible mob action, and a viral video titled “FRSC wickedness.” Or stop cars, save lives, and quietly train people that rules are flexible when enough people ignore them.
Nigeria often chooses the short-term good that destroys the long-term future.
And that is why understanding Nigeria is a psychiatric risk.
This paradox does not stop at Kubwa Road. It is a national operating system.
We live in a country where a polite policeman shocks you. A truthful politician is treated like folklore—“what-God-cannot-do-does-exist.” A nurse or doctor going one year without strike becomes breaking news. Bandits negotiate peace deals with rifles slung over their shoulders, attend dialogue meetings fully armed, and sometimes do TikTok videos of ransoms like content creators.
Criminals have better PR than institutions.
In Nigeria, you bribe to get WAEC “special centre,” bribe to gain university admission, bribe to choose your state of origin for NYSC, and bribe to secure a job. Merit is shy. Connection is confident. Talent waits outside while mediocrity walks in through the back door shaking hands.
You even bribe to eat food at social events. Not metaphorically. Literally. You must “know somebody” to access rice and small chops at a wedding you were invited to. At burial grounds, you need connections to bury your dead with dignity. Even grief has gatekeepers.
We have normalised the absurd so thoroughly that questioning it feels rude.
And yet, the same Nigerians will shout political slogans with full lungs—“Tinubu! Tinubu!!”—without knowing the name of their councillor, councillor’s office, or councillor’s phone number. National politics is theatre; local governance is invisible. We debate presidency like Premier League fans but cannot locate the people controlling our drainage, primary schools, markets, and roads.
We scream about “bad leadership” in Abuja while ignoring the rot at the ward level where leadership is close enough to knock on your door.
Nigeria is a place where laws exist, but enforcement negotiates moods. Where rules are firm until they meet familiarity. Where morality is elastic and context-dependent. Where being honest is admirable but being foolish is unforgivable.
We admire sharpness more than integrity. We celebrate “sense” even when sense means cheating the system. If you obey the rules and suffer, you are naïve. If you break them and succeed, you are smart.
So, the Road Safety officer on Kubwa Road is not an anomaly. He is Nigeria distilled.
Nigeria teaches you to survive first and reform later—except later never comes.
We choose convenience over consistency. Emotion over institution. Today over tomorrow. Life over law, until life itself becomes cheap because law has been weakened.
This is how bridges become irrelevant. This is how systems decay. This is how exceptions swallow rules.
And then we wonder why nothing works.
The painful truth is this: Nigeria is not confusing because it lacks logic. It is confusing because it has too many competing logics. Survival logic. Moral logic. Emotional logic. Opportunistic logic. Religious logic. Tribal logic. Political logic. None fully dominant. All constantly clashing.
So, when someone says, “If dem explain Nigeria give you and you understand am, you fit craze,” what they really mean is this: Nigeria is not designed to be understood; it is designed to be endured.
To truly understand Nigeria is to accept contradictions without resolution. To watch bridges built and ignored. Laws written and suspended. Criminals empowered and victims lectured. To see good people make bad choices for good reasons that produce bad outcomes.
And maybe the real madness is not understanding Nigeria—but understanding it and still hoping it will magically fix itself without deliberate, painful, collective change.
Until then, pedestrians will continue crossing under bridges, officers will keep stopping traffic to save lives, systems will keep eroding gently, and we will keep laughing at our own tragedy—because sometimes, laughter is the only therapy left.
Nigeria no be joke.
But if you no laugh, you go cry—May Nigeria win.
Feature/OPED
Post-Farouk Era: Will Dangote Refinery Maintain Its Momentum?
By Abba Dukawa
“For the marketers, I hope they lose even more. I’m not printing money; I’m also losing money. They want imports to continue, but I don’t think that is right. So I must have a strategy to survive because $20 billion of investment is too big to fail. We are in a situation where we will continue to play cat and mouse, and eventually, someone will give up—either we give up, or they will.” —Aliko Dangote
This statement reflects that while Dangote is incurring losses, he remains committed to his investment, determined to outlast competitors reliant on imports. He believes that persistence and strategy will eventually force them to concede before he does.
Aliko Dangote has faced unprecedented resistance in the petroleum sector, unlike in any of his other business ventures. His first attempt came on May 17, 2007, when the Obasanjo administration sold 51% of Port Harcourt Refinery to Bluestar Oil—a consortium including Dangote Oil, Zenon Oil, and Transcorp—for $561 million. NNPC staff strongly opposed the sale. The refinery was later reclaimed under President Yar’adua, a setback that provided Dangote a tough but invaluable lesson. Undeterred, he went on to build Africa’s largest refinery.
As a private investor, Dangote has delivered much-needed infrastructure to Nigeria’s oil-and-gas sector. Yet, his refinery faces regulatory hurdles from agency’s meant to promote efficiency and growth. Despite this monumental private investment in the nation’s downstream sector, powerful domestic and foreign oil interests may have influenced Farouk Ahmad, former NMDPRA Managing Director, to hinder the refinery’s operations.
The dispute dates back to July 2024, when the NMDPRA claimed that locally refined petroleum products including those from Dangote’s refinery were inferior to imported fuel. Although the confrontation appeared to subside, the underlying rift persisted. Aliko Dangote is not one to speak often, but the pressure he is facing has compelled him to break his silence. He has begun to speak out about what he sees as a deliberate targeting of his investments, as his petroleum-refining venture continues to face repeated regulatory and institutional challenges.
The latest impasse began when Dangote accused the NMDPRA of issuing excessive import licenses for petroleum products, undermining local refining capacity and threatening national energy security. He alleged that the regulator allowed the importation of cheap fuel, including from Russia, which could cripple domestic refineries such as his 650,000‑barrel‑per‑day Lagos plant.
The conflict intensified after Dangote publicly accused Farouk Ahmad, former head of NMDPRA, of living large on a civil servant’s salary. Dangote claimed Ahmad’s lifestyle was way too lavish, pointing out that four of his kids were in pricey Swiss schools. He took his grievance to the ICPC, alleging misconduct and abuse of office.
It’s striking how Nigerian office holders at every level have mastered the art of impunity. Even though Ahmad dismissed the accusations but the standoff prompting Ahmad’s resignation. But the bitter irony these “public servants” tasked with protecting citizens’ interests often face zero consequences for violating policies meant to safeguard the Nation and public interest.
The clash of titans lays bare deeper flaws in Nigeria’s petroleum governance. It shows how institutional weaknesses turn regulatory disputes into personal power plays. In a system with robust norms, such conflicts would be settled via clear rules, independent oversight, and transparent processes not media wars and public accusations.
Even before completion, the refinery’s operating license was denied. Farouk Ahmad claimed Dangote’s petrol was subpar, ordering tests that appeared aimed at public embarrassment. Dangote countered with independent public testing of his diesel, challenging the regulator’s claims.
He also invited Ahmad to verify the tests on-site, but the offer was declined. Moreover, NNPC initially refused to supply crude oil, forcing Dangote to source it from the United States a practice that continues.
President Tinubu later directed the NNPC to resume crude supplies and accept payment in naira, reportedly displeasing the state oil company. In addition to presidential directives, Farouk claimed Dangote was producing petrol beyond the approved quantity and insisted that crude oil be purchased exclusively in U.S. dollars a condition Dangote accepted.
From the public’s point of view, the Refinery is a game-changer for Nigeria, with the potential to end fuel imports and boost the economy. With a capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, it produces around 104 million liters of petroleum products daily, meeting 90% of Nigeria’s domestic demand and allowing exports to other West African countries.
The Dangote Refinery is poised to earn foreign exchange, stabilize fuel prices, and strengthen Nigeria’s energy security. However, the ongoing dispute surrounding the refinery underscores the challenges of aligning national interests with regulatory and institutional frameworks.
The Dangote Refinery’s growing dominance has sparked concerns among stakeholders like NUPENG and PENGASSAN, who fear it could lead to a private monopoly, stifling competition and harming smaller players. This concern stems from the refinery’s rejection of the traditional ₦5 million-per-truck levy on petroleum shipments.
However, Dangote has taken steps to address these concerns, reducing the minimum purchase requirement from 2 million liters to 250,000 liters, opening the market to smaller operators and strengthening distribution networks. The refinery has also purchased 2,000 CNG trucks to maintain operations, emphasizing its commitment to making energy affordable and accessible
Many are watching closely to see if Dangote’s actions are driven by a desire for transparency and fairness in Nigeria’s oil and gas sector or private business interests. Did Dangote genuinely want to fight the corruption going on in the sector?, Will Dangote refinery operate for the common good or seek market dominance? Did Farouk Ahmad act in the public interest or obstruct the refinery for hidden oil interests? Will the Dangote Refinery Maintain Its Momentum in the Post-Farouk Era?The dispute between Dangote and Farouk Ahmad remains shrouded in mystery, with the ICPC investigation likely to uncover the truth
To many, the government faces a delicate balancing act: protecting local refiners while ensuring fair competition. While some argue that Dangote’s success shouldn’t come at the expense of smaller players, others see it episodes like this reveal persistent contradictions: powerful interests, fragile institutions, and blurred lines between regulation and politics.The Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) promised a new era of clarity, efficiency, and accountability, but its implementation has been slow. The PIA’s success hinges on addressing these challenges.
What benefits one party can indeed threaten another. Despite entering the sector with good intentions, Dangote has faced relentless pushback, all eyes are on whether the refinery can sustain its momentum. Analysts and commentators are sharing their perspectives based on available data from relevant institutions. If anyone spreads false information, the truth will eventually come out
Dukawa is a journalist, public‑affairs analyst, and political commentator. He can be reached at [email protected]
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