Feature/OPED
South Africa Reshapes its Democracy, Shows Readiness for Economic Transformation
By Professor Maurice Okoli
South Africa’s historic election results in late May 2024 were another credible testament which, by simple guiding definition, explicitly illustrated democracy as the aggregate will of the people. It was held as stipulated by its constitution. The diverse political expressions were presented through political parties, the African National Congress (ANC) and its largest rivals the Democratic Alliance (DA), the hard-left Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP), and uMkhonto weSizwe Party. Minority parties had their chance to participate, which made it fair and free for electoral progress in South Africa.
This is unlike what happened in Nigeria the so-called giant of Africa, where an election process was mired with ballot box snatching, rigging, violence, and irregularities thereby totally undermining the will of the people.
Despite heightened criticisms, South Africa has illuminated an exemplary template of good governance. In most significant practice, adherence of good governance is one fundamental principle that African leaders have to uphold, as a guiding principle combined with transparency and accountability, to shy away from the shame of being accused over functional political irresponsibility.
Worth reiterating that the political initiative taken by the African National Congress, headed by President Cyril Ramaphosa, to form a coalition has set the rhythmical parameters for the evolutionary processes, without much resistance to the obvious glaring weaknesses and shortfalls of the past administration. The creation of the new executive government emboldened the concept of “unity in diversity” and would have to float a common understanding towards ratifying and removing the existing complexities and contradictions within the framework of aspirations stipulated in the constitution. In another context, it has some relevance for the current shifting geopolitical situation and emerging multipolar architecture.
With its chequered history behind it, South Africa needs comprehensive result-oriented development initiatives, and this can only come through striking compromise and consequently be adopted by the coalition government. The political stalwarts such as the Democratic Alliance (DA) and Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP), now grossly involved in treading the tricky balanced act approved by the parliament on June 14, 2024, raised unswerving hopes for South Africa, the southern African nation of approximately 62 million.
It was a breakthrough to merge political forces marking the ‘great beginning’ of a new chapter, as Economic Freedom Fighters, uMkhonto weSizwe, and other parties have remained antagonistic, and have been termed as the game-losers of the century, marking a significant shift in South African political history after 30 years of ANC dominance. It has some implications, though.
The preceding political agitations culminating in the coalition agreement marked the most significant political change since Nelson Mandela led the ANC to victory in 1994, ending apartheid. “Today is a historic day for our country,” DA leader John Steenhuisen stated, highlighting a new chapter focused on the nation’s interests and future. Similarly acknowledging all these without the least doubts, Ramaphosa described the success as “a remarkable change” and “It will once again be a privilege and pleasure to serve this great nation … (as) president,” said the 71-year-old Ramaphosa, emphasizing a new era of hope and cautious inclusivity. (1)
Tackling Existing Tasks
The newly created executive government would necessarily have to determine the scope of transformation, and the contours for a broader strategic economic resuscitation to uplift South Africa back to its status as Africa’s economic power and an influencer on the global stage, starting from the regional bloc, Southern African Development Community (SADC) and to continental organization, the African Union (AU).
As President Cyril Ramaphosa secured the second term, the preliminary pathway must lead towards tackling the existing pertinent issues that were raised during the election campaign and resulted in a fall of supporters (42%), below the simple majority, for the ANC.
Several reports monitored for this article, the ANC’s decline primarily stemmed from persistent issues such as high poverty, inequality, crime, rolling power cuts, and internal corruption. The DA’s entry into national government signifies a watershed moment for South Africa, as the party advocates for scrapping some of the ANC’s Black empowerment programs, aiming for good governance and a strong economy to benefit all citizens.
Perhaps, South Africa’s newly instituted government has to acknowledge the undeniably challenging future tasks that would require adopting suitable strategies for implementing a set of result-expected policy directions. Across the board, however, experts and investors have already welcomed the coalition, expecting policy continuity and accelerated reforms. It is worth mentioning here that the coalition agreement also outlines priorities, inextricably linked to comprehensive sustainable development, such as economic growth, job creation, land reform, infrastructure development, and fiscal sustainability.
South Africa is the fourth-most populous country in Africa, 80 per cent of the population is black, located entirely south of the equator, after Tanzania. But the most paramount feature is that South Africa has a mixed economy. South Africa’s economy is the most industrialized and technologically advanced in Africa respectively, and has the second largest economy in Africa, after Nigeria. According to research reports, South Africa has a private wealth of $651 billion making its population the richest in Africa followed by Egypt with $307 billion and Nigeria with $228 billion. (2) Despite these, South Africa is still burdened by a relatively high rate of poverty and unemployment and is ranked in the top ten countries in the world.
Unlike most of the world’s industrialized countries, Energy power outrages have bugged down industrial production and domestic utilization. Electricity deficits in an increasing headache across Africa, and the majority of the African countries lack access to this vital component. African Development Bank and African Import-Export Bank reports said half the total of Africa’s population has no daily access to electricity. The impact is considered simply as immeasurable, though surmountable. South Africa is currently the only country on the African continent that possesses a nuclear power plant. The primary electricity generator is Eskom, the utility is the largest producer of electricity in Africa and also needs capital repairs as the equipment is obsolete and experiences frequent breakdowns, consequently limiting the power supply.
Due to severe mismanagement and corruption at Eskom, the company is R392bn ($22bn) in debt and is unable to meet the demands of the South African power grid. Due to this, Eskom implemented load-shedding, which is periodically switching off electricity to specific power grids in specific time frames. In South Africa, load shedding is done to prevent a failure of the entire system when the demand for electricity strains the capacity of Eskom’s power-generating system. Load shedding is characterized by periods of widespread national-level rolling blackouts.
Dr Kelvin Kemm, a nuclear physicist and former chairman of the South African Nuclear Energy Corporation (NECSA), and current Chairman of Stratek Global, a nuclear project management company based in Pretoria, suggested in a report that the ultimate pathway forward, possibly the “energy mix” can effectively fill certain functions in electricity provision, but “much financial arm-twisting has taken place, in the forms of supposedly soft loans and other inducements to save mankind from the sins of the Industrial Revolution and modern day industrialists.” (4)
Under former President Jacob Zuma, the power crisis in South Africa steadily worsened, as the authorities tried to make up their minds on which direction to follow, according to Kemm. In reality, Zuma pushed for more nuclear power. However, this initiative was vehemently opposed by anti-nuclear green groups who are significantly funded by the countries exporting their green solutions. Zuma-era project to build an additional 9600 MW of nuclear power was torpedoed by the anti-nuclear greens. Then President Cyril Ramaphosa deposed President Jacob Zuma. A hallmark of the tenure of President Ramaphosa has been dithering and uncertainty. The country hoped for a show of strong leadership under President Ramaphosa, but that did not materialize. Thankfully, South Africa is now advancing the nuclear agenda not only by announcing the planned building of a new large nuclear power station but also by supporting the introduction of Small Modular Reactors.
Combined with the energy question discussed above, South Africa is widely infected by corruption. It scored 41 points out of 100 on the 2023 Corruption Perceptions Index. Notwithstanding that, more examples of corruptible governments are abounding in Africa. Critics noted that African leaders are fond of making unilateral decisions, and bartering natural resources without cabinet approval and parliamentary discussions. And according to critics, Africans consistently blame their poor performance on external factors. Corruption is a global phenomenon, but that socioeconomic cancer should be tackled seriously in South Africa.
Senior Writer Kate Whiting indicated, in her report on Transparency International’s Global Corruption Barometer, that Corruption is hindering Africa’s economic, political, and social development… More than this, it affects the well-being of individuals, families, and communities.” The report attributed the deterioration of the rule of law and democratic institutions, as well as a rapidly shrinking space for civil society and independent media to corruption in Africa.
Over the years from the apartheid era until today, there has been tremendous growth in multifaceted crimes across South Africa. Reasons could not be far-fetched, as, blacks are unemployed. The entire economy creates highly limited employment places, and again due to porous official policies. From April 2017 to March 2018, on average 57 murders were committed each day in South Africa. More than 526,000 South Africans were murdered from 1994 to 2019. As of February 2023, South Africa unbelievably has the sixth-highest crime rate in the world.
In an article headlined “Coalition Government: A Test For South Africa’s Democracy” published in June 2024, (5) Samir Bhattacharya, a research associate at Observer Research Foundation (ORF) in New Delhi, India, pointed to the possible impact on its future foreign policy and aspects of its implications. Moving forward, the next administration would need to give the country’s foreign policy issues serious attention, chief among them being the delicate balancing act between the West, China, and Russia. At a deeper level, the incoming administration must develop a realistic foreign policy agenda that inspires confidence among investors, both local and foreign. Due to its close ties to all of the superpowers and the BRICS countries, South Africa’s non-alignment approach to international affairs is unlikely to alter in the current environment.
However, there arises a firm need to keep in mind that South Africa still finds strength in its democratic system, which remains a cornerstone of stability and inclusivity. Due to its participation in numerous international issues and membership in groups such as the G20 and BRICS, South Africa is a significant global player. It has lately surpassed Nigeria to become the largest economy on the African continent. South Africa’s latest developments are closely watched not only in the continent but also globally.
Logical Glimpse into the Future
South Africa boasts of an excellent reputation on the global stage. It is also a member of the Southern African Development Community and the African Union. It is a founding member of the AU’s New Partnership for Africa’s Development. After apartheid ended, South Africa was readmitted to the Commonwealth of Nations. Chronicling history, Johannesburg hosted the latest XVI BRICS summit and continues to play a pivotal role in the BRICS association. China supported by Russia, in 2011, South Africa was enrolled into the informal association BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa). Jacob Zuma asserted that BRICS member countries would also work with each other through the UN, G20, and the India, Brazil South Africa (IBSA) forum.
According to local African and foreign critics, despite its widened bilateral relations with many foreign countries, and yet South Africa suffers from high youth unemployment, grappling with energy supply deficits, and many other economic obstacles discussed earlier in this article. Ramaphosa consistently attributes weak economic performance to external factors. In his speeches after the second inauguration on June 19, 2024, Ramaphosa unswervingly promised to embark on a swift and vigorous economic resuscitation of South Africa, and within the new geopolitical reality. Nonetheless, the past was seemingly a difficult time. Ramaphosa has to ‘walk the talk’ as illustrated by well-coined linguistic phrases to win the hearts of the working-class, entrepreneurs, and middle-class population. The logic behind his re-election and re-appointment signalizes a complete turning point and a new chapter, at first with steadfastness, cooperating and collaborating in a close-knitted manner with the broad coalition and stakeholders in readiness to adopt radical measures in dealing with the existing economic deficiencies, striving further to improve the economic status of South Africa. The new chapter brings in its fold the necessity to make contentious steps toward achieving visible economic progress and ensuring ultimate economic sovereignty, creating an inspiring bright future for the generations as stipulated within the constitution of South Africa.
References
- Official speeches by DA leader John Steenhuisen and ANC Cyril Ramaphosa made available on the websites (June 2024).
- “World Bank: South Africa” (PDF). Archived (PDF) from the original on 20 April 2023.
- Transparency International’s Global Corruption Barometer, April 2023 report.
- Ramaphosa’s Administration and the Electricity Challenges in South Africa. Dr Kelvin Kemm (May 2024) interview published by Eurasia Review.
- Samir Bhattacharya, Coalition Government: A Test For South Africa’s Democracy (June 2024), interview published by Global Research.
Professor Maurice Okoli is a fellow at the Institute for African Studies and the Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences. He is also a fellow at the North-Eastern Federal University of Russia. He is an expert at the Roscongress Foundation and the Valdai Discussion Club. As an academic researcher and economist with a keen interest in current geopolitical changes and the emerging world order, Maurice Okoli frequently contributes articles for publication in reputable media portals on different aspects of the interconnection between developing and developed countries, particularly in Asia, Africa and Europe. With comments and suggestions, he can be reached via email: ma***********@***il.com.
Feature/OPED
How Governor Uba Sani’s Sustain Agenda is Rewriting Kaduna’s Agricultural Metamorphosis
By Sani Abdulrazak, PhD
Governance ascends into telos when the hands that feed the nation work with sustained hope rather than uncertainty. The farmer is indeed relieved when he no longer gauges the farming season through the prism of survival or rising cost of fertiliser, but by the promise of a better harvest and a pathway to prosperity. Truth is, rural communities are only fundamentally satisfied when their fertile lands marry deliberate government intervention. This government intervention in agriculture is not in mere promises, speeches, or ceremonies, but in flourishing fields, fuller warehouses and improved livelihoods. At the very core of Governor Uba Sani’s SUSTAIN agenda is strengthening the bedrock upon which food security and economic prosperity are built: agriculture. His approach has been less of bombast and more of stewardship, allowing the sector to emerge from years of uncertainty into one of resurgence.
The agricultural sector of Kaduna State over the past three years reveals a government that has chosen investment over rhetoric. Pinpointing agriculture as the oxygen of the state’s economy, the administration has committed unprecedented resources to this very pertinent sector. The agricultural budget rose from barely ₦1.48 billion in 2023 to ₦74.2 billion in 2025, before exceeding ₦100 billion in the 2026 budget, making Kaduna one of the few states committing over 10 per cent of its annual expenditure to agriculture. These allocations represent an explicit declaration that meaningful agricultural transformation begins with deliberate investment. They equally reflect the prudence and resolve to position Kaduna not merely as a producer of crops but as an agricultural colossus. What once appeared a distant aspiration is gradually taking the shape of a tangible renaissance, built not on ephemeral promises but on carefully hewn policies and enduring commitments.
The most conspicuous manifestation of this administration’s intervention has been its direct support for farmers. Admittedly, farming has become increasingly expensive across the country lately, yet Kaduna state responded with one of the largest agricultural support programmes by distributing 15,000 metric tonnes of fertiliser, equivalent to about 500 truckloads, free of charge to over 120,000 farmers across the 23 local government areas. Through the “Tallafin Noma programme”, an additional 69,000 smallholder farmers received improved maize seeds and agrochemicals to increase productivity. These interventions have reduced production costs for thousands of farming households while strengthening food production at a time when food security remains a national concern. Such interventions are not mere statistics; they are a bulwark against rural poverty, a catalyst for productivity and a harbinger of renewed confidence. For many farmers, government support has become the linchpin upon which an abundant harvest now rests.
Governor Uba Sani understands that the true promise of modern agriculture lies not only in cultivation but also in the value created after the harvest. The commencement of the Kaduna Special Agro-Industrial Processing Zone marks an important shift from exporting raw produce to processing agricultural commodities within the state. Complementing this is the construction of Northern Nigeria’s first Agricultural Quality Assurance Centre, designed to certify agricultural produce for local and international markets. Together, these initiatives promise to reduce post-harvest losses, attract private investment, create employment opportunities and improve the competitiveness of Kaduna’s agricultural products beyond Nigeria’s borders. They equally represent a conscious effort to build an agricultural ecosystem, a lasting edifice of productivity whose impact will reverberate far beyond the present generation. The vision is transformative as it is audacious, replacing dependence with self-sufficiency and creating a confluence where farming, industry and commerce intersect.
Mechanisation and rural agricultural support have also received renewed focus. The procurement of tractors and farm implements, the provision of irrigation pumps, power tillers, fertilisers, and crop protection chemicals to farmer cooperatives, alongside continued investment in rural and farm-to-market roads, shows an understanding that productivity improves when farmers are supported with the right tools and infrastructure. Easier access to markets not only reduces transportation costs but also minimises post-harvest losses, ensuring that farmers reap greater value from their labour. These investments have become the fulcrum upon which rural prosperity increasingly turns, replacing archaic practices with innovative solutions and galvanising communities to embrace modern agriculture. They stand as an obelisk of thoughtful governance, a testament to the belief that development flourishes where opportunity is deliberately cultivated.
Superlatives are in short supply when describing Governor Uba Sani’s three years in office, and even more so when one attempts to capture the magnitude of his agricultural revolution. Among the promises he made was to revive agriculture as the engine of Kaduna’s economy, and, as always, he has kept his promise. We’ve always known he would; the challenges, though, are far from over, but every meaningful reform must navigate its own labyrinth of challenges. Yet the administration’s trajectory remains steadfast, its achievements too palpable to dismiss even to the staunch critics. It would be germane to etch in our minds that history, that impartial arbiter of leadership, may ultimately remember this administration as one that rekindled the state’s agricultural zenith and restored dignity to farming for generations to come.
Sani Abdulrazak, PhD, is a writer, researcher and public affairs analyst based in Zaria, Kaduna State
Feature/OPED
The Role of the Stock Market in Nation Building: Imperatives for an Inclusive Capital Economy
By Adedapo Adesanya
Nigeria’s stock market has crossed a milestone that demands attention. With total market capitalisation reaching N151.327 trillion as at June 2026, the Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX) has not only consolidated its position as Africa’s second-largest bourse, but it has also demonstrated something more consequential: that domestic capital, when properly mobilised, is a credible engine of national development.
Nation building is rarely a singular act. It accumulates through institutions that function, capital that circulates, and citizens who believe the system works for them. Few institutions make that case as visibly as a thriving stock exchange. The market is no longer just a barometer of investor sentiment. It is an active participant in Nigeria’s development.
The quality of any capital market ultimately reflects the quality of the companies it hosts. Markets create national wealth most effectively when they provide long-term capital to productive enterprises that expand industrial capacity, create jobs, deepen local supply chains and generate enduring shareholder value.
Earlier in the year, President Bola Tinubu had commended the NGX Group, corporate Nigeria, market operators and investors for propelling NGX past the historic N100trn market capitalisation mark, describing the milestone as a strong indicator of renewed investor confidence and economic recovery.
He said: “The Nigerian capital market stands at the heart of our ambition to build a one-trillion-dollar economy. It is the engine through which long-term finance must be mobilised to power critical sectors – from infrastructure to housing, technology, energy and industrial growth.”
Nigeria has increasingly demonstrated this through home-grown corporate champions such as the Dangote Group, whose decades-long investments across strategic sectors illustrate how patient enterprise-building and capital market development can reinforce one another. Strong companies strengthen strong markets, and strong markets, in turn, provide the capital needed to build even stronger companies.
But numbers, however impressive, are only part of the story. The more compelling narrative lies in who is now participating and how. The explosion in retail participation over the past two years is inseparable from digital infrastructure.
Data by the Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) shows 151,749 new brokerage accounts were opened in just the first five months of 2025. Between 2019 and November 2025, over 2.1 million new retail investment accounts were established, the strongest growth in seven years. This is not incidental. It is the direct result of deliberate technological positioning by market operators and regulators, and one of the more underappreciated contributions to national economic inclusion, the companies on the stock market.
Nigeria’s investing demographic is shifting, and the market must shift with it. A largely young, mobile-first population does not respond to traditional channels. They discover financial products on social media, transact via apps, and make decisions based on peer influence as much as professional advice. The 56 per cent year-on-year increase in retail equity investment to N981 billion in the first seven months of 2025 reflects this generational pivot.
Yet gaps remain. Women, smallholder entrepreneurs and low-income earners across tier-2 and tier-3 cities are underrepresented. Instruments like the Federal Government Savings Bond, accessible from as little as N5,000, demonstrate that appetite exists beyond the traditional investor class. The challenge now is sustained financial literacy, culturally relevant messaging, and last-mile digital infrastructure that meets these segments where they are. Broadening that base is not just good market development; it is nation-building in its most practical form.
Sustaining confidence in the capital market requires a functioning compact between four critical actors. Regulators must maintain the credibility they have worked on to rebuild. Reforms, including foreign exchange unification, banking recapitalisation, and NGX demutualisation, have restored institutional trust. That momentum cannot be squandered.
Financial institutions must do more than offer products; they must offer pathways. Education, simplified onboarding, and genuinely accessible advisory services are not optional add-ons. They are the infrastructure of a participatory economy.
Listed companies have a responsibility that extends beyond quarterly earnings. They must consistently demonstrate transparency, sound corporate governance, operational excellence and long-term value creation. Companies that invest patiently in productive assets while rewarding shareholders over time help deepen confidence in the market and encourage wider public participation. The experience of leading Nigerian enterprises, including companies within the Dangote Group, shows that sustained investment in the real economy can simultaneously create industrial capacity, support national development and deliver enduring value to investors.
At $117 billion, NGX’s capitalisation represents only about 35 per cent of GDP. Mature markets typically exceed 100 per cent. Closing that gap will require more quality listings, particularly from the productive sectors of the economy, where long-term capital can translate into long-term national growth.
Finally, technology providers must treat financial inclusion as a design constraint, not an afterthought. Connectivity gaps, low digital literacy, and transactional friction are not user problems. They are product problems.
Domestic investors now account for 77.79 per cent of total market activity, a structural shift that makes the market less exposed to global sentiment swings and more reflective of domestic economic conviction. That is a nation beginning to fund its own future.
As Nigeria seeks to build a more inclusive capital economy, the objective should not simply be to increase the number of investors. It should be to increase the number of successful Nigerian businesses capable of attracting long-term investment. Every globally competitive indigenous company that chooses transparency, governance and broad-based ownership strengthens both the capital market and the country’s economic resilience. The relationship is mutually reinforcing: vibrant companies deepen the market, while a vibrant market empowers the next generation of national champions.
The foundation exists. What comes next depends on whether all stakeholders can sustain the coordination that has made this growth possible and go further. A participatory capital economy is not an aspirational language. In Nigeria today, it is an unfinished project moving steadily in the right direction.
By Blaise Udunze
It is considered that in every organised society, the home is supposed to be a place of security. It should be where families find peace after a hard day’s work, where children grow, where dreams are nurtured, and where the pressures of life temporarily fade away. This narrative comes with keen interest, having witnessed that for millions of Nigerians, home has become the country’s newest economic battlefield. This is fast becoming the experience for the vast majority of Nigerians.
Across the length and breadth of Nigeria, citizens are deeply lamenting the skyrocketing rent. Regrettably, this has become one of the fastest-rising costs of living. An unexpected trend which has become a huge concern is that currently apartments that were rented for N700,000 or N1 million just a few years ago are now advertised for N3 million, N5 million or even higher. Amidst this bizarre development, do you know that they are often without significant improvements to the property itself? One key troubling development is that recent estimates suggest that house rents in many Nigerian cities have surged by between 100 and 300 per cent over the last two years, a pace that far exceeds the country’s official inflation rate and has placed unprecedented pressure on households already struggling with rising food, transportation and energy costs.
Landlords, through estate agents, increasingly demand one or two years’ rent upfront. Tenants are expected to pay 10 per cent of the principal rent toward agency fees, legal fees, agreement charges, caution deposits, and, in most cases, the service charge (which appears to be higher), security levies, and utility-related costs before receiving the keys. In many cases, these additional charges add hundreds of thousands or even millions of naira to the advertised rent, making the total cost of securing accommodation far beyond the reach of average-income earners. Equally disturbing is the unchecked exploitation by agent marauders, who prey on desperate house seekers by imposing outrageous and often illegal fees that further deepen Nigeria’s housing crisis. What should ordinarily be a routine life event has become a financial ordeal.
Nigeria’s housing crisis is no longer simply a property story. It has evolved into an economic emergency with profound implications for families, businesses, public health and national development.
The Federal Government’s National Housing Data Technical Committee estimates that Nigeria faces a housing deficit of approximately 15 to 20million homes. At the same time, millions of existing houses are considered structurally inadequate and lack access to essential infrastructure. If this figure is something to consider, anyone would know that these figures reveal two overlapping crises. First, this shows that millions of Nigerians cannot find decent accommodation, whilst millions more live in overcrowded, unsafe or poorly serviced housing.
At the same time, Nigeria’s population continues to expand rapidly, with cities absorbing hundreds of thousands of new residents every year.
One of the challenges is that urbanisation has consistently outpaced housing development, widening the gap between supply and demand while, predictably, rents continue to rise and affordability continues to decline.
Remarkably, housing experts generally recommend that households should spend no more than 30 per cent of their income on accommodation. For many Nigerian families, that recommendation has become almost impossible to achieve.
Teachers, nurses, journalists, police officers, civil servants, young bankers, entrepreneurs, artisans and other middle-income earners increasingly devote more than half of their annual income to rent alone. For many, housing has become the single largest financial obligation, leaving very little for every other necessity of life.
After paying landlords, food budgets shrink. Healthcare is postponed. Children are transferred to less expensive schools. Retirement savings disappear. Business investments are suspended. Vacations become unimaginable luxuries. The rent bill has become the first expense families think about and the last financial burden they can escape.
The effects extend far beyond individual households. This is totally outrageous, as financial analysts have long observed that when accommodation consumes a disproportionate share of disposable income, consumer spending across the economy inevitably weakens.
Families postpone replacing household appliances. Vehicle purchases are delayed. Furniture sales decline. Restaurants receive fewer customers. Clothing retailers experience lower patronage. Small businesses lose purchasing power from consumers whose earnings are now tied up in rent. The result is a vicious economic cycle in which rising housing costs suppress consumption, reduce business activity, and ultimately slow economic growth.
Behind every rent increase lies a deeply personal story. Consider a fictional but representative family whose experience mirrors that of countless Nigerians. The aspect of receiving notice that the annual rent for their modest two-bedroom apartment would rise from N1.2 million to N3 million comes with uneasiness. At this point, the Blessings’ family had spent months desperately searching for an alternative.
Unable to afford the increase and harassment from the landlord, they eventually relocated nearly 30 kilometres away from their former neighbourhood. The consequences were immediate. Their children had to change schools. The family’s daily commuting time doubled. Transportation costs rose sharply. Family time disappeared.
The father now leaves home before sunrise and returns late at night. The mother spends more each month commuting than she once spent on groceries. Their financial burden has not disappeared. It has merely shifted from rent to transportation and also deals with other issues like epileptic power supply and flooding, especially during this rainy season.
Unfortunately, such stories are no longer exceptional. They have become increasingly common across Nigeria’s major cities. Perhaps no demographic feels this pressure more acutely than young professionals.
Come to think of it, graduates entering the workforce quickly discover that entry-level salaries cannot support decent accommodation close to their workplaces. You would also see many remaining with their parents far longer than anticipated. Other effects include seeing them share apartments with several unrelated adults to reduce costs, whilst some endure daily commutes lasting three or four hours because affordable housing exists only in distant suburbs.
The fact is that the consequences extend beyond inconvenience because long commuting hours reduce productivity, increase fatigue, heighten stress levels and significantly diminish quality of life. Another aspect of this, which is discouraging, is that for many talented young Nigerians, financial independence, home ownership and family formation are becoming increasingly distant aspirations. Several interconnected forces explain why rents continue to climb so aggressively.
Inflation has significantly increased the cost of cement, steel, roofing sheets and virtually every construction material required to build houses. The depreciation of the naira has made imported building materials substantially more expensive. No doubt, from recent findings, there are clear indications that there is a significant increase in the prices of building materials. Let us see the period between 2024 to 2026, Cement: N6,500 – N13,000; blocks: N600 – N1100; 30T of sand: N165,000 – N250,000; 30T of granite: N530,000 – N780,000; rebars (iron) ton: N850,000 – N1,150,000 amongst others. To be fair, it is a known fact that high interest rates have increased borrowing costs for developers, while land acquisition remains prohibitively expensive in many urban centres. The very question at heart is, how has this recent development significantly impacted the apartments built five years ago and beyond?
The government has made it difficult to the point that obtaining development approvals can be slow and costly. Developers also contend with multiple taxes, infrastructure levies and rising labour costs before construction even begins. No doubt, these expenses inevitably find their way into rental prices. But one question keeps running through the minds of many, which is, how do these directly impact apartments built many years back? The truth is that market realities alone do not explain every increase.
In many locations, speculative pricing has taken hold. Some landlords have raised rents far beyond what can reasonably be attributed to maintenance or inflation, taking advantage of overwhelming demand and the severe shortage of available accommodation.
The inability of many Nigerians to purchase homes has further intensified the pressure on the rental market. Inflation, high mortgage rates and limited access to long-term housing finance have pushed home ownership beyond the reach of millions, forcing them to remain tenants for much longer than planned. This should be blamed on the government of the day, as more people compete for a limited supply of rental properties, landlords possess even greater leverage to increase prices.
Housing insecurity is also producing a less visible but equally damaging consequence for deteriorating mental health.
The constant fear of eviction, the uncertainty surrounding annual rent reviews and the enormous pressure of raising large lump sums every one or two years create persistent psychological stress.
Think of the impact of parents’ worry about disrupting their children’s education. Young couples postpone marriage because they cannot afford accommodation. Family disagreements increasingly revolve around financial pressures. Consider the part of many Nigerians who quietly or secretly or unknowingly battle anxiety, emotional exhaustion and depression arising from the struggle to secure decent housing.
None of these psychological costs clearly appear in official economic statistics, but the truth is that they profoundly affect productivity, family stability and overall well-being. It is equally obvious that the crisis is also affecting employers and businesses.
Workers forced to travel long distances arrive at work exhausted. Traffic congestion consumes valuable productive hours each day. It turns out that companies increasingly struggle to retain staff who relocate in search of affordable accommodation. Also, know that many employers face mounting pressure to increase housing allowances simply to remain competitive.
All these call for a balancing as employees demand higher wages to offset escalating living costs, further increasing operating expenses for businesses already contending with inflation, unstable exchange rates and rising energy prices.
Housing affordability is therefore no longer merely a social concern. It has become a business and national competitiveness issue.
Though Nigeria is not alone in confronting housing affordability challenges, its recent trend calls for attention. Across Africa, rapid urbanisation continues to outpace housing supply.
For this reason, Kenya has introduced ambitious affordable housing programmes aimed at expanding supply, although implementation challenges remain; this can’t be compared to Nigeria’s current situation. Ghana is not left out of the equation as it continues to battle a significant housing deficit. Ghana is also grappling with the irony of completed homes that remain unaffordable for many citizens. South Africa, despite possessing a relatively more developed mortgage market, continues to experience severe affordability pressures in cities such as Johannesburg and Cape Town.
Nigeria’s situation, however, is intensified by its enormous population, rapid urban expansion, limited mortgage penetration and one of Africa’s largest housing deficits.
Nigeria has witnessed successive governments introducing affordable housing initiatives, mortgage schemes and public-private partnerships which fails before implementation. While these programmes represent positive intentions, delivery has consistently fallen far behind growing demand.
Housing experts argue that meaningful reform requires far more than constructing a limited number of housing estates.
Nigeria must simplify land acquisition processes, reduce infrastructure costs, expand mortgage accessibility, improve planning approvals, encourage private-sector investment in affordable housing and strengthen incentives for developers willing to build homes for middle- and low-income earners.
Improving housing data is important, but accurate statistics alone cannot reduce rents. Effective implementation remains the country’s greatest policy challenge.
Let’s consider some of these salient points proffered by urban planners who insist that Nigeria’s housing crisis cannot be solved exclusively through market forces. According to them, governments at all levels must invest strategically in infrastructure and create financing mechanisms that reduce development costs. To further help reduce the housing gap, they encourage the construction of affordable rental housing rather than focusing disproportionately on luxury developments.
The truth is that if housing continues to consume an ever-growing share of household income, consumer spending, investment and long-term economic growth will remain constrained. Another key barrier that must be addressed quickly, as highlighted by researchers, is inflation, limited housing finance, weak regulatory enforcement and inconsistent policy implementation, which happen to be major bottlenecks to affordable housing delivery.
One key question that yearns for answers is whether it is not obvious to the government and other stakeholders that housing is far more than concrete walls, roofing sheets and painted ceilings? The fact is that shelter, as the meaning implies, shapes educational outcomes, influences public health, determines productivity, strengthens families, supports social mobility and contributes directly to national competitiveness.
At this stage, it is a complete shame and at the same time an irony that a nation where hardworking teachers, nurses, journalists, entrepreneurs, artisans, security personnel and civil servants cannot comfortably afford decent shelter risks weakening its middle class, widening inequality and undermining sustainable economic growth.
If the truth must be told, Nigeria’s rent crisis is therefore not merely about landlords and tenants. For a fact, it is about the future of work, family stability, economic opportunity and social justice. Clearly, it is about whether millions of hardworking citizens can enjoy the dignity that comes with secure and affordable housing.
The mistake all along, which must be eschewed, is that a country’s progress is being measured solely by the number of luxury estates it builds or the height of its skyscrapers. More importantly, it should also be measured by whether ordinary citizens can afford a safe place to call home without sacrificing their children’s education, healthcare, savings or future aspirations.
If this is not adequately addressed, this rent trap will persist until affordable housing becomes a genuine national priority backed by bold reforms and sustained implementation; millions of Nigerians will continue facing an impossible choice, which would invariably lead them to surrender their financial future to keep a roof over their heads or abandon the comfort, security and dignity that every family deserves.
Concerned stakeholders shouldn’t continue to believe that the true cost of Nigeria’s rent crisis is therefore measured only in naira. It is measured in postponed dreams, delayed marriages, fractured families, declining productivity, abandoned ambitions, struggling businesses and the quiet erosion of hope among citizens who work tirelessly every day but find the simple promise of a decent home slipping further beyond their reach.
Blaise, a journalist and PR professional, writes from Lagos and can be reached via: bl***********@***il.com
