By Professor Maurice Okoli

Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger, the three Francophone West African countries under military government, have established an Alliance of Sahel States (AES, or Alliance des Etats du Sahel in French), which is a confederation formed between the above-mentioned three countries.

It originated as a mutual defence pact and was created by the three countries on September 16, 2023. The confederation was officially established on July 6, 2024. The AES is anti-French and anti-ECOWAS in outlook. All three member states of the AES have had their pro-Western governments overthrown by their militaries, and each is currently ruled by a military junta as part of the coup belt.

In 2002, Mali withdrew from the internationally backed G5 Sahel alliance, and Niger and Burkina Faso followed suit in 2023. This led to the dissolution of the G5 framework by its last two members, Chad and Mauritania. The AES has finally exited the African Union (AU) and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS).

In addition to their enthusiasm to ensure long-term political power, the three have generally joined a growing list of African countries that are turning their economies into better environments for their millions of impoverished citizens.

Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger, in early July 2024, finally withdrew from the African Union and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and have further taken the next collective step to create their own sub-regional bloc referred to as the Alliance of Sahel States (AES).

The treaty underscores a “step towards greater integration” between the signatory countries. The pact is open to new members in the event that the candidate accepts all provisions and the ‘trio’ unanimously agrees on the decision.

In practical terms, the trio has repeatedly explained the primary reasons for the joint action as follows: (i) the AU and the ECOWAS’s significant failure to provide adequate support against fighting the jihadists; (ii) the imposition of ‘illegal sanctions’ that are harming the people; and (iii) that the bloc has fallen under the influence of and indiscriminately manipulated by foreign governments, particularly France. (iv) ECOWAS threatens to intervene to restore civilian rule in Niger.

The Alliance further seeks new members whose political philosophy aligns with the current development challenges. The new confederation’s document outlines various directions on its agenda, including establishing a regional bank and stabilisation fund. It has also issued an executive order to facilitate foreign investment in their territorial space.

The document clip circulated widely on social media, racking up thousands of views and introducing fresh debate around the fact that the former political system was stacked with bureaucracy and conservative policy.

A curious look inside the creation of the Alliance of Sahel States has been making resonating waves. The architects of this alliance, both online and offline, have accordingly been pushing the agenda. The Blueprint Document is open to the public and foreign organisations, the regional bloc ECOWAS, and the continental organisation AU.

Reports have indicated that the inaugural meeting was held on July 6 in Niamey, the capital of Niger, and was attended by President of Burkina Faso Ibrahim Traoré, Transitional President of the Republic of Mali Assimi Goita, and President of Niger’s National Council for the Safeguard of the Homeland, Abdourahamane Tchiani.

The Niamey Declaration, in which the ‘trio’ formally announced the establishment of the new confederation,’s primary multifaceted goals include consolidating joint efforts to ensure security and address the socioeconomic problems of the participating states. The alliance will also pursue and undertake joint development projects as well as address questions relating to trade, industry, and agriculture. The document holds the promise to facilitate the free movement of people, goods, and services.

The Alliance of Sahel States is resonating across the sub-region, across Africa, and beyond. Critics have labelled it a real ‘threat to democracy’ and a step to assert ‘an authoritarian’ takeover of political power and administration, while supporters call it a strategic plan to establish power as one ‘of the people, by the people, and for the people, and probably the irreversible beginning of an end of epoch, 500 years of colonialism.

The Alliance of Sahel States came under the spotlight after their July declaration. As expected in the context of the geopolitical situation and analysing the background of the complexities of the evolving political situation, especially in West Africa, it is very noticeable that the United States, Europe, and a few other external powers have stood on the opposite side.

On the other side, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in its weekly media briefing that while consistently advocating for ‘African solutions to African problems’, the initiative by the leaders of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger fully meets the interests of the people of those countries. “We are confident that the Alliance of Sahel States will facilitate the formation of a new regional security architecture. Russia reaffirms its intention to continue to provide the necessary support to the countries of the Alliance of Sahel States,” the report said.

In another related development, Mali’s military leader, Assimi Goita, had spoken by phone with Russian President Vladimir Putin about political developments and his approach to settling the crisis in the region as a whole. Putin stressed “the importance of a peaceful resolution of the situation for a more stable Sahel,” according to the transcript posted to the Kremlin’s website.

Most probably, ECOWAS is now crumbling due to institutional weaknesses combined with being manipulated by external forces. There has been rising anti-western sentiment in the former French colonies. It is also due to the long-standing discontent with and the inability to support effectively in the fight against growing insecurity in the region. Reports say ECOWAS has been working to set up a standing regional force of between 1,500 and 5,000 soldiers, which reports estimate would cost about $2.6bn (£2bn) annually.

But for political observers, their split from ECOWAS comes with many potential ramifications, ranging from economics to security. Buchanan Ismael, a politics professor at the University of Rwanda, believes it “may increase the risk of insecurity” in an already volatile region infested with militant groups.

Hassan Isilow, a political analyst, says in his report that Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger have cemented their split from ECOWAS and formed their own Alliance of Sahel States.

The West Africa region could be headed for ‘foreign-imposed instability,’ warns the University of South Africa’s Ahmed Jazbhay.

More countries could’separate themselves from ECOWAS, if not through coups, then with anti-Western populists,’ says Rwanda-based analyst Buchanan Ismael.

The fact is that the common theme in their statements was greater integration between their countries—the majority of African states that have slowly but surely been drifting away from traditional regional and Western allies.

Research reports published by The Conversation, Agence France Press, British Broadcasting, and many other reputable media indicated that the unilateral withdrawal of three West African countries would be hit by trade regulations and restrictions, thus impacting the population and the economy.

The three are landlocked and among the poorest in the world; this already illustrates their major disadvantage and limited position. Several narratives further pointed to the fundamental fact that the crisis has the potential to escalate into either a conflict across West Africa or the final disintegration of ECOWAS.

In July 2024, Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger signed a confederation security pact and formalised their final exit from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), the regional bloc that imposed sanctions on them after the coups in Mali in 2020, Burkina Faso in 2022, and Niger in 2023.

“This summit marks a decisive step for the future of our common space. Together, we will consolidate the foundations of our true independence, a guarantee of true peace and sustainable development, through the creation of the ‘Alliance of the Sahel States’ Confederation,” Traore said in a statement posted on X.

By creating their own Alliance of Sahel States, it exposes the regional bloc ECOWAS and the continental organisation AU’s powerlessness, multitude of weaknesses, and long-term inability and incompetency to deal with regional problems through mediation.

In the ECOWAS guidelines, Article 91 of the bloc’s treaty stipulates that member countries remain bound by their obligations for a period of one year after notification of their withdrawal. For better or for worse, these interim military governments have adopted a hardline stance, consistently delaying fixing concrete dates to hold democratic elections.

The AU Commission chief, Moussa Faki Mahamat, repainted the ‘bleak picture’ with a ‘litany of difficulties’ confronting many African countries during the 37th Ordinary Session of the Assembly of Heads of State and Government of the African Union (AU) summit held, from February 14 to February 15, at the AU Headquarters in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. AUC chief Moussa Faki Mahamat assertively spoke of ‘worrying trends’ in North Africa, the Horn of Africa, and also in West Africa.

Moussa Faki Mahamat blasted the failure to counter multiple “unconstitutional changes of government” following a string of coups in West Africa and warned the scourge of “terrorism” was diverting money away from vital social needs to military spending. In practical reality, the summit was now concerned about looking inward, closely protecting their sovereign prerogatives rather than investing in collective security, somehow to fund most of its budget rather than foreign donors. Gabon and Niger were absent from the summit following their suspension over coups last year, joining Mali, Guinea, Sudan, and Burkina Faso, which are also barred for similar reasons.

As an expert in geopolitics and regional economic integration, it is important to take a close look at the possible obvious implications. Despite taking this innovative step, there are still obstacles and explicit challenges in the areas of coordination and cooperation. For instance, the fact that the three are geographically landlocked stipulates the questions of access to the coastline, logistics, and delivery of goods through seaports.

The next question that cannot be overemphasised is whether Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger are members of the West African Economic and Monetary Union, which uses the CFA franc as its common currency. The trio has to create their own currency if they are expelled from the West African Economic and Monetary Union.

Usually referred to as the West African Sahel, it is the vast semi-arid region where Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, and other countries are located. This West African Sahel region has been plagued by security challenges, including terrorism and organised crime. Terrorist organisations such as Boko Haram, the Islamic State, and al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) have operated in the Sahel, exacerbating violence, extremism, and instability in the region.

According to the latest issue of the Global Terrorism Index, there is a strong link between organised crime and terrorism in this region. Terrorism is on the rise, and the Sahel accounts for almost half of all deaths from terrorism globally.

This is further exacerbated by the cross-border operations of armed groups and rising violent extremism. That, combined with widespread and growing desertification, contributes additional strain to the region’s development. Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger have a combined population of approximately 80 million people and some of the fastest population growth rates in the world. But development has been assessed as poor, far below what is needed to guarantee a normal living standard.

In addition to insecurity and instability, these countries are engulfed in various socio-economic problems combined with traditional cultural practices that have lessened development. The system of governance and poor policies largely hinder sustainable development.

In light of the above, ECOWAS will have to adapt its strategy to this new geopolitical reality. The AES could seek to establish or strengthen its partnerships with other international actors, such as Russia or China, of the multipolar BRICS Alliance, which have shown growing interest in Africa.

Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger together comprise some 72 million people, almost a fifth of the regional bloc’s population. It remains one of the least developed countries in the world, with a GDP of $16.23 billion in 2022. Geography and the environment contribute to Burkina Faso’s food insecurity.

Mali’s key industry is agriculture. Cotton is the country’s largest crop export and is exported west throughout Senegal and Ivory Coast. Gold is mined in the southern region, and Mali has the third-highest gold production in Africa (after South Africa and Ghana).

Niger is the second-largest landlocked nation in Africa, behind Chad. Over 80% of its land area lies in the Sahara. In 2021, Niger was the main supplier of uranium to the EU, followed by Kazakhstan and Russia. Despite its large deposit of uranium, Niger has a multidimensional underdevelopment, and 80% of its citizens consistently live in abject poverty.

The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) continues to look for appropriate mechanisms to resolve the ongoing crisis. The regional bloc has come under persistent criticism; it has slackened on its primary responsibilities, while some have called for drastic reforms and personnel changes (overhauling or restructuring), attributing to the complete inefficiency of the organisation.

Consisting of 15 member states, ECOWAS facilitates peacekeeping through systematic collaboration with civil society, cooperation with development policies, and other activities to meet sub-regional security challenges. Established on May 28, 1975, the bloc’s reputation has been at stake and most probably needs new dynamic faces at the Secretariat in Abuja, Nigeria.

Professor Maurice Okoli is a fellow at the Institute for African Studies and the Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences. He is also a fellow at the North-Eastern Federal University of Russia. He is an expert at the Roscongress Foundation and the Valdai Discussion Club.

As an academic researcher and economist with a keen interest in current geopolitical changes and the emerging world order, Maurice Okoli frequently contributes articles for publication in reputable media portals on different aspects of the interconnection between developing and developed countries, particularly in Asia, Africa, and Europe. With comments and suggestions, he can be reached via email: markolconsult (at) gmail (dot) com.