Feature/OPED
Sustainable Development is a Necessity for Every Society in the World
By Professor Maurice Okoli
For the majority of African leaders and delegates, it was a momentous achievement, to participate and contribute speeches with diverse themes at the podium during the 78th session of the UN General Assembly (UNGA) in New York. The UNGA traditionally meets in September, the highest global gathering to make several significant decisions on what the organization, consisting of 193 UN members, is generally expected to do. It has wrapped up its 78th annual session with another huge pack of commitments to engage in reshaping a better life for the entire population and Development paradigms in the world.
In the context of Africa’s Development, the extraordinary sessions combined with several top-level bilateral and multilateral meetings on the sidelines critically highlighted the existing multiple Development obstacles, the potential to reshape the continent’s priorities and bring to life the vision of African desires and the strategic pathways forward in the emerging future.
From the various perspectives and interpretations, African leaders have restated their longstanding fears of global South political dominance and hegemony, the shortfalls of a unipolar system, expressed support for some structural reforms within international organizations, and finally emphasized, as always, comprehensive and long-term Development plans for Africa that is already incorporated into the African Union’s Agenda 2063.
The idea of the UN’s sustainable development goals is nearing its extinction. In the experts’ views, especially among African politicians, intellectuals and development leaders during this period of pursuing the SDGs, to a large extent, the progress has been influenced by geopolitical enmity. And noticeably fierce confrontation between key global powers and multinational development banks have also slackened the expected financial pledges and commitments.
What Leaders Say at the General Assembly
United Nations chief António Guterres has stressed this point concerning the SDGs in different forms at several summits and conferences. At the opening of the meeting, he afresh called for a world that should be “more representative and responsive to the needs of developing economies” and added that the least developing world is persistently “trapped in a tangle of global crises.”
Without mincing words, Guterres has repeatedly called for sustainable and predictable financing for peacebuilding efforts. He also expressed concern about unconstitutional changes of government in parts of Africa and stressed the need for collaboration with the African Union to support peace efforts across the continent.
Now is the time to lift the declaration’s words off the page and invest in Development at scale like never before. The political statement includes a commitment to financing for developing countries and clear support for an annual SDG Stimulus of at least $500 billion.
A newly established ‘Leaders Group’ will develop clear steps to get funds flowing before 2024. The Leaders Group (LG) must turn commitments made at the Summit into concrete policies, budgets, investment portfolios and actions. In addition, LG should strengthen support for action across six key SDG areas: food, energy, digitalization, education, social protection and jobs, and biodiversity.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank are tasked to recapitalize and coordinate an urgent additional re-channeling of $100 billion in unused Special Drawing Rights. The Special Drawing Rights is an international reserve asset developed by the IMF to supplement the official foreign exchange reserves of its member countries and help provide them with liquidity. The largest-ever allocation, worth $650 billion, was carried out in August 2021 in response to the economic crisis generated by the COVID-19 pandemic.
Nearly all African leaders have development-oriented complaints. Current Head of ECOWAS and Nigerian President, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, in a few words on behalf of Nigeria, on behalf of Africa, indicated that failures in good governance have hindered sustainable development in Africa. “But broken promises, unfair treatment and outright exploitation from abroad have also exacted a heavy toll on our ability to progress,” he said, and despite the underlying conditions and causes of the economic challenges, promised to make relentless efforts to re-establish democratic governance in West Africa, including the French-speaking states now under interim military administrations. The wave crossing parts of Africa does not demonstrate favour towards coups. It is a demand for solutions to perennial problems. The negative impact and related problems also knock on Nigeria’s door.
Bola Ahmed Tinubu, among other issues, said African nations would fight climate change but must do so on its terms. Continental efforts regarding climate change would register important victories if established economies were more forthcoming with public and private sector investment for Africa’s preferred initiatives. As for Africa, given its abundant land resources, the creative and dynamic people desire prosperity. Africa is not a problem to be avoided, nor is it to be pitied. Africa is nothing less than the key to the world’s future.
William Ruto, President of Kenya, in a flowering speech also indicated that the time is up to pursue global peace and sustain positive changes for impoverished billion people in the world. “The tragic spectacle of young people from Africa boarding rickety contraptions to gamble their lives away on dangerous voyages in pursuit of opportunities abroad, as conflict, climate and economic refugees, is a testament of the failures of the global economic system,” he asserted at the gathering.
From diverse standpoints, there is no need to be trapped in a false choice: sustainable development is robust climate action and climate action is development. It is quite explicit that Africa’s potential is defined by abundant and diverse resources, ranging from a youthful, highly skilled and motivated population, immense renewable energy potential and mineral resources, including critical minerals, and extensive natural capital endowment, including 60% of the world’s unutilised arable land.
Capital and technology can find no better returns anywhere, than the tremendous investment opportunity in Africa’s potential. Such investment would drive green growth creating jobs and wealth while decarbonising global production and consumption. Therefore, to unlock financing at scale and create incentives for investments at scale in green opportunities, the Nairobi Declaration makes the reform of the international financial system a priority.
Moments like now place the nature and purpose of multilateralism under sharp scrutiny for history’s honest examination and judgement. If any confirmation was ever needed that the United Nations Security Council is dysfunctional, undemocratic, non-inclusive, un-representative and therefore incapable of delivering meaningful progress in the world.
Multilateralism has failed due to the abuse of trust, negligence and impunity. It is time for multilateralism to reflect the voice of the farmers, represent the hopes of villagers, champion the aspirations of pastoralists, defend the rights of fisherfolk, express the dreams of traders, respect the wishes of workers and, indeed, protect the welfare of all peoples of the world.
According to Ruto, the UN Secretary-General provided a graphic snapshot of the condition of the world and humanity, a situation that calls into question the state of multilateralism in terms of its founding aspirations, as well as its present agenda. The poverty, fear, suffering and humanitarian distress haunting the victims of conflict, drought, famine, flooding, wildfires, cyclones, deadly disease outbreaks and other disasters, are the outcomes of sustained violation of the most essential principles, and the systematic neglect of humanity’s dearest values, which lie at the very foundation of the UN charter since 1945.
President of South Africa, Cyril Ramaphosa, addressed the UN General. Assembly on September 19, while pointing to the fact that every human effort should be directed towards realizing the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development said, “Our energies have once again been diverted by the scourge of war.” While touching on several points including the need for inclusive, democratic, and representative international institutions, he also emphasized that “over millennia, the human race has demonstrated an enormous capacity for resilience, adaptation, innovation, compassion and solidarity … these qualities must be evident in how we work together as a global community and as nations of the world to end war and conflict.”
Referring assertively to the meeting held in early September by his country alongside Russia, India and China, and the BRICS summit in Johannesburg, in late August, President Ramaphosa urged all nations to demonstrate and resolve to secure a peaceful, prosperous, and sustainable future for the world and, more importantly, for the generations that will follow. “Leaving no one behind – that is the duty that we all have,” he said, recalling the guiding promise made by the international community with the adoption in 2015 of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.
Scanning further through reports, UN refugee chief Filippo Grandi insisted that the world had “the means and the money” to prevent every one of those deaths. He called for an end to the fighting and more financial support for the emergency response in the country. The UN agency pointed to a context of “increased epidemic risk” and challenges for epidemic control across Africa. UNHCR’s Chief of Public Health, Dr Allen Maina drew attention to acutely malnourished and millions of people requiring care for chronic diseases in war-torn and conflicting African regions.
Speakers have equally highlighted the importance of engaging the youth in the development strategy and the decision-making processes. Often said, the youth are vibrant and could play supporting roles, therefore, the focus should be directed on their training and be given the necessary guidance and directions. According to the African Development Bank, Africa’s youth population is experiencing rapid growth and is projected to reach 850 million by the year 2050. Furthermore, young individuals in Africa are anticipated to make up half of the 2 billion working-age population by 2063 – the continent being the world’s youngest region with a median age of 25 years.
Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)
Insights into the United Nations’ SDGs, as already stated, since its inception in 2015, there is still a lot to be done, especially in addressing the ongoing global challenges. Some notable facts included The number of people living in extreme poverty in 2022: 657-676 million vs. 581 million pre-COVID pandemic.
With steps to end hunger, achieve food security, improve nutrition, and promote sustainable agriculture. One in 10 people worldwide are suffering from hunger. Nearly one in three people need regular access to food (2020).
Experts say that quality education and gender equality are progressing steadily, but it would take another 40 years for women and men to be represented equally in national political leadership.
Affordable and Clean Energy: Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all. Progress in energy efficiency needs to speed up to achieve global climate goals.
Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure: In an assessment, there is still the necessity to build resilient infrastructure, promote inclusive and sustainable industrialization and foster innovation.
And the need to ensure sustainable consumption and production patterns. Issues persistent relating to climate change, biodiversity loss, and pollution. Climate Action: take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts.
With partnerships for the goals: Strengthen the means of implementation and revitalization of the global partnership for sustainable development. As Secretary-General António Guterres remarked on September 18 at the UN General Assembly, the SDGs need a global rescue, which includes stimulus support of at least “$500 billion a year as well as an effective debt-relief mechanism that supports payment suspensions, long lending terms and lower rates.”
Arguably, having a clearer understanding of these development goals is highly noteworthy. It would encourage global leaders to reassess current policies and practices and explore ways to enhance commitments towards their realization further.
BRICS, G20 and G77+China
Fundamentally, all these questions mentioned above and many others have predominantly featured during the past few years but have risen to greater heights recently during the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) meeting in Johannesburg, the G20 in New Delhi and G77+China summit in Cuba. At these high-level meetings, there were passionate appeals to rapidly address development gaps and disparities, to ‘change the game’s rules’ between the North and the South.
But then, those organizations (BRICS, G20, G77+China and others) are steadily recognizing the basic facts about global re-configuration, economic competitiveness and emerging new multifaceted relations between nation-states. Most of these states in the South, especially Africa is de-alienating away from some countries in the global North, entities further considered them as the primary sources of their under-development and causes for their internal conflicts, resulting in Economic deficiency.
In retrospect, BRICS held its 15th Summit in Johannesburg. There were two significant questions: first, new members joined the Group, and second, China rolled out another phase of industrial support program for Africa. It is noteworthy to say here that Russia and China are actively contributing to the transformation of the Group into a new geopolitical and economic block.
Noticeably, other key global powers are also scrambling to Africa. The dominating trend is that China, for instance, has, over the past two decades, demonstrated a sufficiently deep understanding of Africa’s Infrastructural development needs. In practical terms, China’s significant-scale contributions and active growing influence worry the most Developed nations of the world, especially the United States.
Quite recently, the G20 also held its traditional Summit in New Delhi. In spite of various divergent arguments during the Summit, however, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva strongly called for focusing on unity, rather than attempts to oppose the G7 group, and the G20 group. India also expressed concerns regarding the enlargement process, considering it a method to amplify the influence of China is the state with the largest economy in the Group.
“Therefore, the Brazilian presidency of the G20 has three priorities,” Luiz Lula told the meeting. “The first one is social inclusion and the fight against hunger, energy transition and sustainable development … and thirdly the reform of global governance institutions.” All these priorities are part of the Brazilian presidency’s motto: ‘Building a fair world and a sustainable planet.’ Two task forces will be created – the Global Alliance Against Hunger and Poverty and the Global Mobilization Against Climate Change.
In this context, India did powerfully and strategically well in controlling and leading groups from all camps to negotiate to have a unified compromise. BRICS leaders reached agreements around global debt, reforms to multilateral institutions such as the World Bank, climate financing and the adoption of a worldwide green development pact, with the latter two are expected to be critical features of the G20 presidency in 2024.
Records show that the G77+China, a group of developing and emerging countries representing 80 per cent of the world’s population, held its Summit in Cuba. Likewise, it was held amid widening geopolitical differences, the fight against climate change and solid calls for reforms of the global economic system. In short, it sought to “change the rules of the game” of the worldwide order.
“After all this time that the North has organized the world according to its interests, it is now up to the South to change the rules of the game,” Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel said at the opening of the Summit.
Diaz-Canel said that developing nations were the primary victims of a “multidimensional crisis” in the world today, from “abusive, unequal trade” to global warming.
The G77+China bloc was established by 77 countries of the global South in 1964 “to articulate and promote their collective economic interests and enhance their joint negotiating capacity,” according to the Group’s website. Today, it has 134 members, among which the website lists China, although the Asian giant says it is not a full member. Cuba took over the rotating presidency in January.
Developing Nations’ Debt Trap
Far ahead of the New York meetings at the United Nations, academic researchers Vitor Gaspar, Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro and Jiae Yoo have argued that global debt recorded another significant decline in 2022; it is still high, with debt sustainability remaining a concern. Referencing the Global Debt Database, the researchers made an explicit case that the total debt stood at 238 per cent of global gross domestic product last year, nine percentage points higher than in 2019.
In US dollar terms, debt amounted to $235 trillion, or $200 billion above its level in 2021. China played a central role in increasing global debt in recent decades as borrowing outpaced economic growth. Debt in low-income developing nations also rose significantly in the last two decades.
Several reports also note, with authenticity, that Africa’s debt to China surpassed $140 billion as of September 2021. However, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) says about $285 billion would be required by African countries to finance major infrastructural projects from 2021-2025. China has risen to become a top global lender with significant stakes that exceed more than five per cent of global Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
The COVID-19 pandemic’s economic effects and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have made it more difficult for many African states to pay their Debts. Now, 22 low-income African nations are either already experiencing a debt crisis or are at significant risk of experiencing it. In fact, the top 10 African states with the highest debt to China include Angola, Ethiopia, Zambia, Kenya, Nigeria, Cameroon, Sudan, DRC, Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire.
In contrast, generally, more than half of low-income developing nations are in or at high risk of debt distress, and about one-fifth of emerging markets have sovereign bonds trading at distressed levels. Policymakers will need to be unwavering over the next few years in their commitment to preserving debt sustainability.
Some are advocating for genuine reforms at G20, suggesting further the possibility for well-refined and coordinated cooperation between the North and the South. Of course, a more excellent representation of the Global South would create a paradigm shift. For instance, Yaroslav Founder of BRICS+ Analytics Yaroslav Lissovolik argues that during the 15th BRICS in August, apart from the more excellent representation of Africa and the Global South in the G20 forum, another significance of AU’s admission to the Group of 20 is that it creates greater scope for synergies and closer cooperation between globalism (global institutions and platforms such as the IMF, World Bank, WTO, G20) and regionalism (regional integration blocs, regional development banks and regional financing arrangements). If other regional blocs do become part of the G20 platform, there will then be scope for these blocs to work more closely with the WTO, while regional development institutions could coordinate their operations with the IMF and the World Bank.
With the world facing a challenging economy, geopolitical tensions, and the deepening effects of the climate and nature crises, achieving the SDG targets set out in 2015 currently needs to be on track. According to the UN, progress on more than 50% of the targets must be more substantial, stalled, or backsliding. The private and civil sectors must play a key role, alongside governments, in supporting and accelerating sustainable Development.
“To achieve the SDG targets by 2030, significant innovative efforts are still required,” said Klaus Schwab, Founder and Executive Chairman of the World Economic Forum. “Through the Sustainable Development Impact Meetings, which bring together governments, business and civil society, we aim to make a tangible contribution to creating a more sustainable, inclusive and resilient world.”
In the course of writing this article and reading through the UN General Assembly reports, one thought appeared that after decades of restrictive IMF and World Bank loans, poverty, hunger, and conflict persist throughout the continent. While many attribute this to Africa’s governance challenges, in reality, a deliberate imperial agenda has also hindered the continent’s Development in the political, economic, and security sectors.
The rise of a new global pole to challenge the old unipolar order has had a notable impact across sub-Saharan West Africa, which, in recent years, has seen a surge in military coups, shifting power away from regimes that had long prioritized the interests of Western corporations. These coups occurred in Chad (April 2021), Mali (May 2021), Guinea (September 2021), Sudan (October 2021), Burkina Faso (January 2022), Niger (July 2023), and Gabon (August 2023) – all very resource-rich but with abnormally poor living conditions. These African states have to pursue development-oriented policies to uplift their vigorous status out of abject poverty.
Therefore, it is commendable that participants at UNGA in New York have critically reviewed a series of carefully curated discussions to advance work on specific areas of the 17 SDGs. The robust programme includes key areas such as accelerating the reskilling revolution, harnessing artificial intelligence for better jobs, improving access to nutrition, advancing the energy transition, responding to the climate and nature crises, supporting the social economy, advancing gender equality, and promoting digital and data-driven health.
Admittedly, we are in a highly critical period. There are many obstacles to Africa’s political stability, economic development and integration, and building trust and credibility. One major success was the African Union’s ascension into G20, giving it a louder voice. But that’s not all to it; AU needs to sort out the potential controversies and contradictions in the geopolitical landscape. Alternative to the rules-based order, BRICS and its new members, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, have extensive interests across Africa, prioritizing Africa Agenda 2063 without vacillating the pendulum.
In a modest conclusion of this discussion, African leaders have to face the existing challenges and emerging opportunities within the context of geopolitical changes. In addressing these, African leaders need to understand that the current developments in Africa have pronounced hyperbolic anti-colonial and anti-western rhetorics that threaten the logical appeal for technological transfer and external financial support for Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
Therefore, African leaders have to acknowledge humbleness while putting order first in their own homes in terms of reforming the political system, uprooting deep-seated corruption, working towards good governance, transparency and accountability, and rules of law as well as ensuring the effectiveness of institutions of power. From the pragmatic perspective of new diplomacy, it is crucial to underline that there should be a geopolitical balance of power rather than uttermost accusations and outright confrontation in the emerging multipolar world.
Professor Maurice Okoli is a fellow at the Institute for African Studies and the Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences. He is also a fellow at the North-Eastern Federal University of Russia. He is an expert at the Roscongress Foundation and the Valdai Discussion Club.
As an academic researcher and economist with a keen interest in current geopolitical changes and the emerging world order, Maurice Okoli frequently contributes articles for publication in reputable media portals on different aspects of the interconnection between developing and developed countries, particularly in Asia, Africa and Europe. With comments and suggestions, he can be reached via email: markolconsult (at) gmail (dot) com
By Barr. Adefila Kamal
Football in Nigeria has never been just a sport. It is emotion, argument, nationalism, and sometimes heartbreak wrapped into ninety minutes. That passion is a gift, but it often comes with a tendency to shout down progress before it has the chance to grow. In the middle of this noise sits the Nigeria Football Federation under the leadership of Ibrahim Musa Gusau, a man who has chosen steady hands over loud speeches, structure over drama, and long-term rebuilding over chasing instant applause.
When Gusau took office in 2022, he understood one thing clearly: the only way to fix Nigerian football is to repair its foundations. He said it openly during the 2025 NNL monthly awards ceremony — you cannot build an edifice from the rooftop. And true to that conviction, his tenure has taken shape quietly through structural investments that don’t trend on social media but matter where the future of the game is built. The construction of a players’ hostel and modern training pitches at the Moshood Abiola Stadium is one of the clearest signs of this shift. Nigeria has gone decades without basic infrastructure for its national teams, especially youth and age-grade squads. Gusau’s administration broke that pattern by delivering the first dedicated national-team hostel in our history, a project that signals an understanding that success is not luck — it is preparation.
The same thread runs through grassroots football. The maiden edition of the FCT FA Women’s Inter-Area Councils Football Tournament emerged under this administration, giving young female players a structured platform instead of the token attention they usually receive. These initiatives are not flashy. They do not dominate headlines. But they form the bedrock of any footballing nation that wants to be taken seriously.
Gusau’s leadership has also focused on lifting the domestic leagues out of years of decline. The NFF has revamped professional and semi-professional competitions, working to create consistent scheduling, fair officiating, and marketable competition structures. The growing number of global broadcasting partnerships — something unheard of in the old NPFL era — has brought more eyes, more credibility and more opportunities for clubs and players. Monthly awards for players, coaches and referees have introduced a culture of performance and merit, something our domestic game has needed for years. These are reforms that reshape the culture of football far beyond one season.
Internationally, Nigeria regained a powerful seat at the table when Gusau was elected President of the West African Football Union (WAFU B). This is not a ceremonial achievement. In football politics, influence determines opportunities, hosting rights, development grants, international appointments and the respect with which nations are treated. For too long, Nigeria’s voice in the region was inconsistent. Gusau’s emergence changes that, and it places Nigeria in a position where its administrative competence cannot be dismissed.
His administration has also made it clear that women’s football, youth development and academy systems are no longer side projects. There is a renewed intention to repair the broken pathways that once produced global stars with almost predictable frequency. If Nigeria is going to remain a powerhouse, development must become a machine, not an afterthought.
Still, for many observers, none of this seems to matter because the yardstick is always a single match, a single tournament or a single disappointing moment. Public criticism often grows louder than the facts. Fans want instant results, and when they don’t come, the instinct is to blame whoever is in office at the moment. But this approach has repeatedly sabotaged Nigerian football. Constant leadership changes wipe out institutional memory and scatter reform efforts before they mature. No nation becomes great by resetting its football house every time tempers flare.
Gusau’s leadership is unfolding at a time when FIFA and CAF are tightening their expectations for professionalism, financial transparency and infrastructure. Nigeria cannot afford scandals, disarray or combative politics. We need the kind of administrative consistency that global football bodies can trust — and this is exactly the lane Gusau has chosen. He has not been perfect; no administrator is. But he has been consistent, measured and focused. In an ecosystem that often rewards noise, this is rare.
For progress to hold, Nigeria must shift from the culture of outrage to a culture of constructive contribution. The media, civil society, ex-players, club owners, fan groups — everyone has a role. The truth is that Nigerian football’s biggest enemy has never been the NFF president, whoever he might be at the time. The real enemies are impatience, instability and emotional decision-making. They derail strategy. They kill reforms. They weaken institutions. And they turn football — our greatest cultural asset — into a battlefield of blame.
Gusau’s effort to reposition the NFF is a reminder that real development is rarely glamorous. It is slow, disciplined and often misunderstood. But it is the only route that leads to the future we claim to want: a football system built on structure, modern governance, infrastructure, youth development and global influence. Nigeria will flourish when we start protecting our institutions instead of tearing them down after every misstep.
If we truly want Nigerian football to rise, we must recognise genuine work when we see it. We must support continuity when it is clearly producing a roadmap. And we must resist the temptation to substitute outrage for analysis. Ibrahim Musa Gusau’s tenure is not defined by noise. It is defined by groundwork — the kind that elevates nations long after the shouting stops.
Barr. Adefila Kamal is a legal practitioner and development specialist. He serves as the National President of the Civil Society Network for Good Governance (CSNGG), with a long-standing commitment to transparency, institutional reform and sports governance in Nigeria
By Taiwo Olatunji, CFA
Nigeria’s infrastructure ambition is not constrained by vision, but by the financing architecture. The public sector balance sheet, which has been the primary source of financing, has become very tight, while financing from the private sector is available and increasing, with a focus on long-term, naira-denominated assets. Hence, the challenge lies in effectively connecting this capital to bankable projects at scale and with discipline. Project bonds, created, structured and distributed by investment banks, are the instruments required to bridge the country’s infrastructure needs.
The scale of the need is clear. Nigeria’s Revised NIIMP (2020–2043) estimates ~US$2.3 trillion, about US$100bn, a year is required annually for the next 30 years to lift infrastructure to 70% of GDP. Africa’s pensions, insurers and sovereign funds already hold over US$1.1 trillion that can be mobilised for this purpose, but they require new and innovative approaches to enhance their participation in addressing this challenge.
What is broken with the status quo?
Nigeria continues to finance inherently long-dated assets through the issuance of local currency public bonds, Sukuk and Eurobonds. This approach creates a heavy burden on the government’s balance sheet while sometimes causing refinancing risk and FX exposures, where naira cash flows service dollar liabilities. It has also led to the slow conversion of the pipeline of identified projects because many infrastructure projects have not been prepared, appraised and structured to attract the private sector.
Why project bonds and where they sit in the stack
Project bonds are debt securities issued by project SPVs and serviced from project cash flows, typically secured by concessions, offtake agreements, or availability payments. Unlike typical bonds (corporate or government), which are backed by the sponsor’s balance sheets, project bonds are backed by the cash flow generated by the financed project. They often have longer duration, are tradeable, aligned with the long operating life of infrastructure projects and best suited for pension and insurance investors.
Globally, this type of instrument has been used to finance major projects such as toll roads, power plants, and social infrastructure. For example, in Latin America, transportation and energy projects have been financed through project bonds from local and international investors, through the 144A market, a U.S. framework that allows companies to access large institutional investors without going through a full public offering. Similarly, in India, rupee-denominated project bonds have benefited from partial credit guarantees provided by institutions like Crédit Agricole Corporate and Investment Bank, which help lower investment risk and attract more investors.
In practice, project bonds can be structured in two ways: (i) as a take-out instrument, refinancing bank or DFI construction loans once an asset has reached operational stability; or (ii) as a bond issued from day one for brownfield or late-stage greenfield projects where revenue visibility is high, often supported by credit enhancements such as guarantees.
In both cases, the instrument achieves the same outcome: aligning long-term, project cash flows with the long-term liabilities of domestic institutional investors.
The enabling ecosystem is already emerging
1. Nigeria is not starting from zero. Regulatory infrastructure is already in place. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has issued detailed rules governing Project Bonds and Infrastructure Funds, creating standardized issuance structures aligned with global best practice and familiar to institutional investors. The SEC is also mulling the inclusion of the proposed rules on Credit Enhancement Service Providers in the existing rules of the Commission.
2. Market benchmarks are already available. The sovereign yield curve, published by the Debt Management Office (DMO) through its regular monthly auctions, provides a transparent reference point for pricing. This curve serves as the base risk-free rate, against which project bond spreads can be calibrated to reflect construction, operating, and sector-specific risks.
3. The National Pension Commission (PenCom) has revised its Regulation on the investment of Pension Fund Assets, increasing the amount of the country’s N25.9 trillion pension assets to be allocated to infrastructure.
4. InfraCredit has established a robust local-currency guarantee framework, supporting an aggregate guaranteed portfolio of approximately ₦270 billion. The portfolio carries a weighted average tenor of ~8 years, with demonstrated capacity to extend maturities up to 20 years. (InfraCredit 2025)
Why merchant banks should lead
Merchant banks sit at the nexus of origination, structuring, underwriting, and distribution, and they need to work with projects sponsors, financiers and government to develop a pipeline of bankable infrastructure projects. A pipeline of bankable infrastructure projects is important to attract investors as they prefer to invest in an economy with a recognizable pipeline. A pipeline also suggests that a structured and well-thought-out approach was adopted, and the projects would have identified all the major risks and the proposed mitigants to address the identified risks.
This “banks-as-catalysts” model, an economic framework that states banks can play an active and creative role in promoting industrialization and economic development, particularly in emerging markets, can be adopted to structure and mobilise domestic private finance into Infrastructure projects.
Coronation Merchant Bank’s role and vision
At Coronation, we believe the identification, structuring and testing of bankable infrastructure projects are the constraints to mobilization of private capital into the infrastructure space. We bring an integrated platform across Financial Advisory, Capital Mobilization, Commercial Debt, Private Debt and Alternative Financing to identify, structure, underwrite and distribute infrastructure debt into domestic institutions. The Bank works with DFIs, guarantee providers and other banks to scale issuance. Our franchise has supported infrastructure debt issuances via the capital markets, likewise Nigerian corporates and the Government.
From Insight to Execution
If you are considering the issuance of a project bond or you want to discuss pipeline readiness, kindly contact [email protected] or call 020-01279760.
Taiwo Olatunji, CFA is the Group Head of Investment Banking at Coronation Merchant Bank
By Blaise Udunze
At the Annual Bankers’ Dinner, when the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, Yemi Cardoso, recently stated that Nigeria had “turned a decisive corner,” his remark aimed to convey assurance that inflation was decelerating with headline inflation eased to 16.05percent and food inflation retreating to 13.12 percent, the exchange rate was stabilizing, and foreign reserves ($46.7 billion) had climbed to a seven-year peak. However, beneath this announcement, a grimmer and conflicting economic situation challenges households, businesses, and investors daily.
Stability is not announced; it is felt. For millions of Nigerians, however, what they are facing instead are increasing difficulties, declining abilities, diminished buying power, and susceptibilities that dispute any assertion of a steady macroeconomic path.
The 303rd MPC gathering was the most significant in recent times, revealing policies and statements that prompt more questions than clarifications. It highlighted an economy striving to appear stable, in theory, while the actual sector struggles to breathe.
This narrative explores why Cardoso’s assertion of “restored stability” is based on a delicate and partial foundation, and why Nigeria continues to be distant from attaining economic robustness.
Manufacturing: The Core of Genuine Stability Remains Struggling to Survive
A strong economy is characterized by growth in production, increased investment, and competitive industries. Nigeria lacks all of these elements.
The Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN) expressed this clearly in its response to the MPC’s choice to keep the Monetary Policy Rate at 27 percent. MAN stated that elevated interest rates are now” hindering production, deterring investment, and weakening competitiveness.
Producers are presently taking loans at rates between 30-37 percent, an environment that renders growth unfeasible and survival challenging. MAN’s Director-General, Segun Ajayi-Kadir, emphasized that although stable exchange rates matter, no genuine industry can endure borrowing expenses to those charged by loan sharks.
The CBN’s choice to maintain elevated interest rates is based on drawing foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) to support the naira’s stability. However, FPIs are well-known for being short-term, speculative, and reactive to disturbances. They do not signify long-term stability. Do they represent genuine economic development?
Genuine stability demands assurance, in manufacturing beyond financial tightening. Manufacturers are expressing, clearly and persistently, that no progress has been made.
Oil Output and Revenue: The Engine Behind Nigeria’s Stability Is Misfiring
Nigeria’s oil sector, which is the backbone of its fiscal stability, is underperforming. The 2025 budget presumed:
- $75 per barrel oil price
- 2.06 million barrels per day production
Both objectives have fallen apart. Brent crude lingers near $62.56 under the benchmark. Contrary to the usual explanations, experts attribute the decline not mainly to external shocks but to poor reservoir management, outdated models, weak oversight, and delayed technical decisions.
Engineer Charles Deigh, a regarded expert in reservoir engineering, clearly expressed that Nigeria is experiencing production losses due to inadequate well monitoring, obsolete reservoir models, and technical choices lacking fundamental engineering precision. These shortcomings result directly in decreased revenue. By September 2025:
– Nigeria had accumulated N62.15 trillion from oil revenue
– instead of the N84.67 trillion budgeted.
– In September, the Federal Inland Revenue Service reported a startling 49.60 percent deficit in revenue from oil taxes.
A nation falling short of its main revenue goals by 50 percent cannot assert stability. Instead, it will take loans. Nigeria has taken loans.
A Stability Built on Debt, Not Productivity
Nigeria is now Africa’s largest borrower, and the world’s third-biggest borrower from the World Bank’s IDA, with $18.5 billion in commitments. By mid-2025, the total public debt amounts to N152.4 trillion, marking a 348.6 percent rise since 2023.
From July to October 2025, the government secured contracts for: $24.79 billion, €4 billion, ¥15 billion, N757 billion, and $500 million Sukuk loans. Nevertheless, in spite of these acquisitions, infrastructure continues to be manufacturing remains limited, and social welfare is still insufficient.
Uche Uwaleke, a finance and capital markets professor, cautions that Nigeria’s debt service ratio is “detrimental to growth.” Currently, the government spends one out of every four naira it earns on servicing debts. Taking on debt is not harmful in itself, provided it finances projects that pay for themselves. In Nigeria, it supports subsistence. A country funding today, through the labour of the future, cannot assert restored stability.
The Naira: A Currency Supported by Fragile Pillars
The CBN contends that elevated interest rates and enhanced market confidence have contributed to the naira’s stabilisation. However, this steadiness is based on grounds that cannot endure even the slightest global disturbance. The pillars of a stable currency are:
– Rising domestic production
– Expanding exports
– Reliable energy supply
– Strong security
– A thriving manufacturing base
None of these is Nigeria’s current reality. What Nigeria actually receives is capital from portfolio investors, and past events (2014, 2018, 2020, 2022) have demonstrated how rapidly these funds disappear.
Unemployment: “Stable” Figures Mask a Rising Youth Crisis
The CBN touts a reported unemployment rate of 4.3 percent. However, the International Labour Organisation (ILO), along with economists, cautions that the approach conceals more serious issues in the labour market.
Youth joblessness has increased to 6.5 percent, and the Nigerian Economic Summit Group cautions that Nigeria needs to generate 27 million formal employment opportunities by 2030 or else confront a disastrous labour crisis. The employment crisis is a ticking time bomb. A country cannot maintain stability when its youth are inactive, disheartened, and financially marginalized.
FDI Continues to Lag Despite CBN’s Positive Outlook
During the 2025 Nigerian Economic Summit, NESG Chairman, Niyi Yusuf stated that Nigeria’s efforts to attract direct investment (FDI) continue to be sluggish despite the implementation of reforms. FDI genuinely reflects investor trust, not portfolio inflows. FDI signifies enduring dedication, manufacturing plants, employment, and generating value. Nigeria does not have any of this as of now. An economy unable to draw long-term investments lacks stability.
139 Million Nigerians in Poverty: What Stability?
The recent development report from the World Bank estimates that 139 million Nigerians are living in poverty, and more than half of the population faces daily struggles. This is not stability. It is a humanitarian and economic crisis.
Food inflation continues to stay structurally high. The cost of a food basket has risen five times since 2019. Low-income families currently allocate much, as 70 percent of their earnings to food. A government cannot claim stability when its citizens go hungry.
A Fragile, Failing Power Sector
The power sector, another cornerstone of economic stability, is failing. Over 90 million Nigerians are without access to electricity, which is one of the highest figures globally. Even homes linked to the grid get 6.6 hours of electricity daily. Companies allocate funds to generators rather than to technology, innovation, or growth. Nigeria has now emerged as the biggest importer of solar panels in Africa, not due to environmental goals but because the national power grid is unreliable.
A country cannot achieve stability if it is unable to supply electricity to its residences, industrial plants, or medical centers.
Insecurity: The Silent Pillar Undermining All Economic Policy
Banditry, terrorism, abduction, and militant attacks persist in agriculture, manufacturing, logistics, and investment. Nigeria forfeits $15 billion each year due to insecurity and resources that might have fueled industrial development.
Food price increases are mainly caused by instability, and farmers are unable to cultivate, gather, or deliver their products. Nevertheless, the MPC approaches inflation predominantly as an issue of policy. In a country where insecurity fundamentally hinders the economy tightening policy cannot ensure stability.
Inflation Figures Under Suspicion
Questions have also emerged regarding the reliability of inflation data. Dr. Tilewa Adebajo, an economist, affirmed that the CBN might not entirely rely on the NBS inflation figures, highlighting increasing apprehension. A sharp decrease to 16 percent inflation clashes with market conditions.
Families are facing the food costs in two decades. Costs, for transport, housing rent, education fees, and necessary items keep increasing. Food prices cannot decline when farmers are abandoning their farmlands and fleeing for safety. If inflation figures are manipulated or partial, the stability story based on them becomes deceptive. There is, quite frankly, a significant disconnect between governance and the lived experience of ordinary Nigerians.
Foreign Reserves: A Story of Headlines vs Reality
Even Nigeria’s celebrated foreign reserves require scrutiny. The CBN reported $46.7 billion in reserves. However, a closer examination shows:
– Net usable reserves are only $23.11 billion
– The remainder is connected to commitments, swaps, and debts
Gross reserves make the news. Net reserves protect the currency. The difference is too large to assert that the naira is stable.
Nigeria’s Economic Contradiction: Stability at the Top, Volatility at the Bottom
In reality, Nigeria is caught between official proclamations of stability and lived experiences of volatility. The disparity between the CBN’s account and the actual experiences of Nigerians highlights a reality:
– Macroeconomic changes have failed to convert into improvements in human well-being.
– Nigeria might appear stable officially. Its citizens are experiencing instability in truth.
– Taking on debt is increasing
– Poverty is worsening
– Manufacturing is contracting
– Jobs are scarce
– Authority is breaking down
– Feelings of insecurity are growing stronger
– Inflation is undermining dignity
– Companies are struggling to breathe
– Capital is escaping
– Misery, among humans, is expanding
A strong economy is one where advancement is experienced, not announced.
What Genuine Stability Demands
To move from paper stability to real stability, Nigeria must:
- Support domestic production. Cut interest rates for manufacturers, reduce borrowing costs, and provide targeted credit.
- Fix oil production technically. Revamp reservoir engineering, implement surveillance. Allocate resources to adequate technical oversight.
- Prioritize security. Secure farmlands, highways, and industrial corridors.
- Reform the power sector. Invest in grid reliability, renewable integration, and private-sector-led transmission.
- Attract real FDI. Streamline rules, enhance the framework, and maintain consistent policy guidance.
- Anchor debt on productive projects. Take loans exclusively for infrastructure projects that produce income.
- Prioritize reforms in welfare. Adopt crisis-responsive, domestically funded safety nets.
- Improve transparency. Ensure inflation, employment, and reserve data reflect reality.
Stability Is Not Given; It Has to Be Achieved
The CBN Governor’s statement of “renewed stability” is hopeful. It remains unproven. The inconsistencies are glaring, the statistics too. The real-world experiences are too harsh. Nigerians require outcomes, not slogans. Stability is gauged not through statements on policy but by whether:
– Manufacturing plants are creating (factories operate at full capacity),
– Food is affordable,
– Young people have jobs
– The naira is strong without artificial props,
– Electricity is reliable,
– Security is assured,
– Poverty rates are decreasing.
Unless these conditions are met, Nigeria is not experiencing a period of restored stability. Instead, it is going through a phase of recovery, one that will collapse if the actual economy keeps worsening while decision-makers prematurely applaud their successes. The CBN must rethink its approach. Nigeria needs productive stability, not statistical stability.
Blaise, a journalist and PR professional, writes from Lagos, can be reached via: [email protected]
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