Feature/OPED
Tinubu’s Tightrope: Assessing Nigeria’s Economy After One Year In Office
By James Ezema
As President Bola Tinubu’s administration in Nigeria clocks the one-year mark, the state of the country’s economy remains a cause for concern.
Since taking office on May 29, 2023, President Tinubu has faced numerous challenges in stabilising the economy and setting it on a path to sustainable growth. However, the Nigerian economy continues to wobble under his administration with increasing hardship.
Amid various challenges, ranging from inflation to unemployment, Tinubu’s government faces the daunting task of repositioning the economy for sustainable growth.
In assessing the current state of Nigeria’s faltering economy as inherited by President Tinubu, key areas his government should focus on to steer the country towards economic stability are herein highlighted in an attempt to contribute ideas that could usher in a better life for the citizens.
The State of the Nigerian Economy
Since assuming office, President Tinubu has inherited from former President Muhammadu Buhari an economy plagued by high inflation, rising debt levels, and sluggish growth.
Inflation has been on the rise, reaching double digits in recent months, making it difficult for ordinary Nigerians to afford basic necessities. No thanks to the sudden removal of subsidy on petrol. The high inflation has been exacerbated by the depreciation of the Nigerian Naira, which has lost value against major foreign currencies, leading to higher prices for imported goods and services.
To be blamed also is the carried-over negative impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic which earlier led to job losses and increased poverty levels. Despite efforts to stimulate the economy through various policies and interventions, the impact has been limited, and the economy continues to struggle.
Inflation and Exchange Rate Stability
One of the key areas of concern for the Tinubu administration is inflation and exchange rate stability. As captured in the background of this article, it is important to emphasise that inflation has been on the rise, eroding the purchasing power of Nigerians and making it difficult for businesses to plan and invest. The exchange rate has also been volatile, leading to uncertainty in the business environment.
Addressing these issues will be crucial in restoring confidence in the economy. It is obvious that the economic policies of the administration have so far not reduced inflation and addressed the exchange rate problem. A change of policy or a change of guard could be considered.
Unemployment and Youth Empowerment
Another major challenge facing the economy is the high level of unemployment. Despite the government’s efforts to create jobs through various initiatives, the unemployment rate remains stubbornly high, particularly among young people. This has hindered economic growth, as a large segment of the population is unable to contribute positively to the economy.
Unemployment remains a major challenge in Nigeria, with a large percentage of the population, especially the youth, without jobs. President Tinubu’s government must prioritize youth empowerment programs and initiatives to create job opportunities and reduce the unemployment rate.
Investing in skills development and entrepreneurship will be key to unlocking the potential of Nigeria’s youth population. Without an adequate power supply, the situation will worsen with the high cost of fuel for generators that could power small businesses.
Infrastructure Development
In addition to these challenges, Nigeria’s economy has also been hampered by a lack of infrastructure development. The country’s roads, ports, and power supply are in dire need of investment and improvement, which has slowed down economic activities and deterred foreign investors from setting up businesses in the country.
Infrastructure development is essential for economic growth and development. President Tinubu’s government should, therefore, focus on improving the country’s infrastructure, including roads, power, and transportation networks, beginning with intra-state transportation systems. Investing in infrastructure will not only create jobs but also attract foreign investment and stimulate economic activity.
Therefore, for emphasis, the government must prioritize investment in infrastructure development beyond mere sloganeering. Specifically, the government must intentionally improve the country’s roads, ports, as well as power supply as electricity infrastructure is key. This will boost economic activities and attract needed foreign investors looking to set up businesses in Nigeria. This will go a long way in creating a conducive environment for businesses to thrive and contribute to the urgently needed economic growth.
Diversification of the Economy
Over the years, Nigeria’s economy has been heavily reliant on oil, making it vulnerable to fluctuations in global oil prices and local factors.
President Tinubu’s government should, therefore, prioritize diversifying the economy by promoting non-oil sectors such as agriculture, manufacturing, and services beyond mere words. Diversification will reduce the country’s dependence on oil revenue and make the economy more resilient to external shocks.
If the current administration will ever get the economy right, the Tinubu administration must, as a matter of urgency, do more towards implementing policies that promote economic diversification and industrialization. The heavy reliance on oil exports over the decades has increasingly made Nigeria’s economy very vulnerable, which has worsened with reports indicating that Nigeria’s oil has been sold in advance for unspecified periods.
Therefore, by diversifying the economy and promoting the growth of non-oil sectors such as agriculture, and manufacturing for export, among others, the government can create new sources of revenue and employment opportunities for Nigerians.
Fiscal Discipline and Debt Management
Fiscal discipline and debt management are crucial for ensuring the sustainability of Nigeria’s economy. President Tinubu’s government must prioritize prudent fiscal management and debt sustainability to avoid a debt crisis or over-taxation of impoverished citizens who are economically gasping for breath at the moment. Implementing reforms to improve revenue generation, without overburdening poverty-stricken Nigerians, and reduce wasteful spending by government officials and appointees will be essential in achieving fiscal stability.
Anti-Corruption and Good Governance
Despite efforts by the new chairman of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), Mr Ola Olukoyede, corruption remains a major impediment to Nigeria’s economic development. President Tinubu’s government should intensify efforts to combat corruption and promote good governance.
Strengthening institutions, enhancing transparency, and holding corrupt officials accountable will be crucial in restoring trust in the government and attracting investment. A major priority for President Tinubu’s administration should be a systematic recovery of all and every fund allegedly looted by officials of the immediate past administration and the tracing and recovery of the allegedly shared oil revenues by those referred to as former President Muhammadu Buhari’s “boys”. There are allegations of looted loans, which should be thoroughly investigated as the recovery of looted funds from former ministers and other appointees of the previous government could give a lifeline to the funding of the 2024 budget against borrowing.
Social Welfare and Poverty Alleviation
The poverty levels in Nigeria have remained very high, with a significant portion of the population living below the poverty line. President Tinubu’s government should prioritize social welfare programmes and poverty alleviation initiatives to improve the living standards of Nigerians. The sharing of money or the so-called conditional money transfer has only enriched the very wealthy government officials and appointees.
Therefore, President Tinubu’s administration should consider investing in affordable healthcare, free education, and social protection to reduce the poverty and inequality gap in the country.
In conclusion, as President Tinubu clocked one year in office on May 29, 2024, there are several areas that his government should focus on to reposition the ailing economy and set it on a path to recovery.
By focusing on such key areas as inflation and exchange rate stability, unemployment and youth empowerment, infrastructure development, diversification of the economy, fiscal discipline, anti-corruption, good governance, social welfare, and poverty alleviation, his government can reposition the economy for sustainable growth and development. President Tinubu must take bold and decisive actions to steer Nigeria towards economic stability and prosperity.
Comrade James Ezema is a journalist, political strategist and President/Executive Coordinator of the Not Too Young To Perform (NTYTP), a young people-driven pro-democracy and leadership development advocacy group. He is also the National President of the Association of Bloggers and Journalists Against Fake News. He writes from Abuja and can be reached via email at ja********@***il.com or WhatsApp on 08035823617
By Blaise Udunze
Daily, the world watches Nigeria through a familiar lens in what appears to be a gory situation. Especially in cases when the news headlines tell stories of farmer-herder clashes, bandit attacks, kidnappings, villages reduced to ashes or deserted by the dwellers, as thousands of Nigerians have been displaced across states such as Zamfara, Plateau, Benue, Niger, Kaduna and Nasarawa. Subliminally, this is about to become a similarly ugly occurrence in southwestern Nigeria, which is fast becoming obvious if not nipped in the bud quickly.
Recorded data have shown that bandits, Boko Haram, and others killed over 190,000 Nigerians in 17 years and displaced 3.7 million people.
A human rights organisation, the International Society for Civil Liberties and Rule of Law (Intersociety), in its fearful revelation, has said that no fewer than 190,150 Nigerians have been killed by bandits, Boko Haram insurgents, and suspected armed herdsmen between July 2009 and March 19, 2026, as this calls for concern.
The dominant explanations often point to ethnic tensions, religious divisions, climate change, shrinking grazing routes or weak security institutions. No doubt, those factors are certainly part of Nigeria’s complex security crisis. Yet another question deserves serious examination.
What if, in some locations, the violence is also serving another purpose? What if some of the territories experiencing repeated displacement are the same places sitting atop some of Nigeria’s most valuable mineral deposits? More importantly, if such a pattern exists, who benefits when communities disappear?
Of a truth, these questions are uncomfortable, but undeniably they deserve careful investigation rather than dismissal.
For ages, Nigeria has been naturally endowed, and it is estimated to be rich in enormous significant reserves of gold, lithium, uranium, tin, columbite and other strategic minerals increasingly sought after in the global transition to clean energy technologies. As international demand for battery minerals continues to rise, these resources have become far more valuable than they were only a decade ago.
If one overlays publicly available geological information with maps showing persistent violence, some observers argue that striking geographical overlaps appear in several regions. Such overlaps alone cannot establish causation. Correlation is not proof of conspiracy. However, they raise questions worthy of independent scrutiny.
One issue attracting increasing attention and adequately yearns for answer is whether prolonged insecurity may inadvertently or deliberately create conditions that make mineral extraction easier.
Under Nigeria’s Nigerian Minerals and Mining Act 2007, mineral resources belong to the Federal Government, while mining rights are granted through licences and leases. Community engagement and land access are expected to form part of the licensing process, although implementation varies depending on circumstances. This raises an important policy question.
What happens when the communities expected to participate in those processes have already fled because of violence?
Displacement changes the dynamics of land ownership, consent and access. While no evidence automatically proves that attacks are orchestrated to facilitate mining, the sequence of violence followed by renewed commercial activity in some locations deserves closer examination by regulators, lawmakers and investigative journalists.
In conflict studies, researchers have long observed that wars often generate economic winners alongside humanitarian losers. Could elements of Nigeria’s insecurity also be producing economic beneficiaries?
Reports over the years have documented concerns about illegal mining operations across parts of northern Nigeria. Government agencies themselves have repeatedly acknowledged that criminal networks profit from the country’s vast mineral wealth. The unresolved question is whether isolated criminality has, in some instances, evolved into more sophisticated alliances involving political influence, financial interests and international supply chains. If so, the implications extend far beyond Nigeria.
Invariably, it is clearly known that lithium has become one of the world’s most strategic commodities, powering electric vehicle batteries and renewable energy storage systems. Gold has always remained one of the safest global investment assets during periods of uncertainty. Meanwhile, it is well confirmed that the global appetite for these minerals creates enormous financial incentives.
Suppose violent displacement reduces resistance to extraction. Suppose shell companies subsequently acquire mining interests. Suppose minerals then leave Nigeria through legitimate-looking export documentation while their true value remains understated.
These scenarios remain allegations unless supported by verifiable evidence. Yet they outline a framework that investigators may wish to test rather than ignore. Financial crime experts frequently identify trade mis-invoicing as one of the most common methods of illicit financial flows worldwide.
Could Nigeria’s solid minerals sector be vulnerable to similar practices? If valuable lithium ore is deliberately but inaccurately described as lower-value material on export documents, substantial wealth could potentially leave the country without reflecting its true market value. Likewise, if unrefined gold exits through privileged channels with limited scrutiny, questions naturally arise about oversight, transparency and accountability over criminal activities which have continued to stunt and disrupt the country’s socio-economic growth and at the same time cause carnage.
Such possibilities are not accusations against any particular institution or company. Rather, they illustrate why stronger monitoring systems are increasingly essential. Another question concerns logistics.
With the high level of criminal activities, industrial mining requires heavy machinery, diesel supplies, transportation networks and specialised personnel. These are not operations that can remain invisible indefinitely.
If certain territories are genuinely too dangerous for security agencies, how do industrial-scale extraction activities reportedly continue in some remote locations? If they do, who protects those operations? Who authorises their movement? Who verifies what is extracted? Who ensures royalties and export revenues reach public coffers? These are governance questions that demand institutional answers.
Equally important is the international dimension. Minerals extracted in Nigeria ultimately enter global supply chains. Gold may pass through international refining hubs before entering financial markets. Lithium may become part of battery manufacturing destined for electric vehicles, which are being sold across Europe, North America and Asia.
One known fact is that consumers purchasing products containing these minerals rarely know the full story of where they originated.
Increasingly, however, investors and governments are demanding ethical sourcing standards that trace minerals from extraction to final manufacture.
A critical factor that must be taken into cognisance is that if insecurity is creating opportunities for illegal or unethical extraction anywhere in the world, multinational companies have responsibilities alongside national governments, of which the onus falls on the Nigerian government.
Transparency cannot stop at the mine gate. Nor should accountability end at national borders. Another issue requiring attention concerns beneficial ownership.
Across many jurisdictions, shell companies can obscure the identities of individuals ultimately controlling commercial assets. If politically exposed persons or powerful business interests are hidden behind complex corporate structures registered offshore, identifying beneficiaries becomes significantly more difficult. This challenge is hardly unique to Nigeria.
Findings showed that from Latin America to Central Africa and Southeast Asia, resistant corporate networks have frequently complicated efforts to combat corruption and illicit resource extraction. That is precisely why open corporate registries, beneficial ownership databases and transparent mining licence disclosures are becoming global governance priorities. For Nigeria, the stakes could hardly be higher.
The country stands at the centre of the world’s emerging critical minerals economy. The Nigerian government can’t feign ignorance of the fact that, when handled transparently, these resources could finance infrastructure, education, healthcare, and industrial development for generations.
In no way would the government claim not knowing that when handled poorly, they risk becoming another chapter in the well-documented “resource curse,” where extraordinary natural wealth coincides with persistent poverty, insecurity and institutional weakness.
The ultimate challenge, therefore, is not simply about mining. It is about governance. It is about whether public institutions possess both the independence and capacity to ensure that natural resources benefit citizens rather than narrow interests. It is about whether conflict zones receive genuine peacebuilding efforts instead of becoming forgotten frontiers. And it is about whether international markets demand accountability with the same enthusiasm they demand raw materials.
None of these questions should be answered through speculation. They require rigorous investigations, forensic financial analysis, satellite imagery, mining license audits, customs records, beneficial ownership disclosures and courageous journalism.
They require governments willing to open their books. They require international cooperation capable of tracing money across borders. Most importantly, they require asking questions that have too often remained unasked.
Perhaps Nigeria’s security crisis is exactly what it appears to be: a tragic convergence of historical grievances, weak institutions, criminality and environmental pressures. Or perhaps, in some places, another layer of economic incentive deserves closer scrutiny.
Until those questions are thoroughly investigated, one possibility will continue to linger. Maybe the world’s attention has been fixed on the blood spilt above ground, while too little attention has been paid to the extraordinary wealth lying beneath it.
Blaise, a journalist and PR professional, writes from Lagos and can be reached via: bl***********@***il.com
Feature/OPED
What Does Nigeria’s $51bn Reserves Milestone Mean if Most New Foreign Money Can Leave Quickly?
Nigeria’s foreign reserves have climbed to about $51 billion, a decade-plus high, according to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). EBC Financial Group (EBC) notes that this reflects stronger investor confidence, but the second half may show whether it holds, as the build rests on three cyclical drivers: oil earnings, short-term foreign money and a narrowing official-to-street naira gap.
Reserves rose from about $32 billion in April 2024, during a dollar shortage, to about $51 billion now, near the CBN’s target. Much came from two cyclical sources, strong oil earnings and money chasing high-yielding naira assets, so EBC expects the pace to slow or reverse. Fitch Ratings, a major international credit rating agency, expects a marginal decline to about $47 billion by the end of 2026, citing higher spending and external pressures.
David Precious, Senior Market Analyst at EBC Financial Group, said, “Nigeria’s reserve build is real but may not be durable yet, because nearly all of the new money is the kind that can leave quickly. Of the $10.37 billion that came in over the first quarter, the overwhelming majority was short-term portfolio funds rather than long-term investment, so a shift in oil prices, global interest rates or confidence in the naira might pull a large part of it straight back out.”
Most New Money Can Still Leave Quickly
The composition of the foreign inflows explains the caution over how long the build can last. The country attracted $10.37 billion in foreign investment in the first quarter of 2026, up 83.83 per cent year-on-year, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). Of that, $9.86 billion or 95.09 per cent, was portfolio money, largely short-term naira debt such as Treasury bills that investors can sell at the next auction, while foreign direct investment, the long-term kind that builds factories and jobs, was $135.08 million, or 1.30 per cent. Put simply, of each dollar coming in, about 95 cents can leave quickly, and barely one cent stays.
That money supports reserves while it stays. Dollars brought in to buy naira assets add to market supply, letting the CBN hold more reserves and steady the naira. It leaves when conditions change. Nigeria earns most of its export dollars from oil and gas, so lower oil prices mean fewer dollars, and as a member of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), it cannot simply produce more, output capped by quota and reduced by theft and ageing fields. Higher global interest rates draw money toward safer returns abroad, and a weakening naira prompts investors to sell early. When oil fell in 2016 and 2020, foreign investors withdrew and could not convert naira to dollars as supply dried up, leaving the CBN to clear more than $7 billion in trapped obligations into 2024.
The Oil Boost is No Longer Certain
Oil looked like a dependable source of the dollars behind the reserves only months ago. Earlier in 2026, concern over disruption around the Strait of Hormuz lifted crude prices, and stronger receipts flowed in, with crude oil export earnings of $8.11 billion in the first quarter in the CBN’s balance-of-payments data. That support is now easing. The tension has subsided, and Brent traded near $72 on June 29, down about 24 per cent over the month, back to pre-conflict levels. With the price boost gone and output constrained, reserves are more exposed, leaning on non-oil earnings and investor patience rather than oil.
The Naira Still Trades at Two Prices
The naira has traded at two prices, an official rate and a higher parallel-market rate, and closing that gap into one trusted price is what many investors might watch most. Before committing funds, they may want assurance they can convert naira to dollars at a fair rate when they exit, and a wide gap revives the fear of being trapped that lingers from earlier shortages. The gap has narrowed to roughly N20 to N30, with the CBN’s official rate near N1,380 per dollar on June 26 against parallel-market quotes around N1,400. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) 2026 Article IV review urged Nigeria to depend less on this fast-moving portfolio money and to keep phasing out its multiple exchange-rate practices. The CBN’s Foreign Exchange Manual, in force from 1 June, is intended to make the market clearer, though such rules build confidence only once investors can freely trade dollars at the posted rate.
What could Make the Build Durable
A few signs that may show the build turning durable include a smaller gap between the official and street naira rates, more long-term foreign investment, and steadier oil earnings. A gap that stays small, now roughly N20 to N30, may mean investors trust the official rate and no longer need the street market. A clear rise in foreign direct investment, only $135 million last quarter against $9.86 billion of short-term money, might mean lasting capital is replacing funds that can leave at the next auction. Oil earnings that hold up, rather than sliding from the low $70s, should help keep reserves steady, since oil and gas bring in most of Nigeria’s export dollars.
“Reserves built on money chasing high yields can fall as fast as they rose, as they did after the last two oil shocks, when investors left, and the CBN spent years clearing a foreign-exchange backlog,” Precious added. “What holds through a downturn is slower money, direct investment, steady oil and non-oil export earnings and one credible naira rate, and that is the shift Nigeria has yet to make.”
By Olajumoke Bello
Across Nigeria, small and medium enterprises remain the backbone of economic activity. They drive trade, create jobs, and sustain millions of livelihoods. Yet, despite their importance, many SMEs continue to operate below their full potential due to persistent structural challenges.
Access to finance remains one of the most cited constraints. However, the issue today goes beyond the availability of capital. Many businesses struggle with financial readiness, weak documentation, and limited understanding of what lenders require. This often leads to missed opportunities, even when funding options exist.
At the same time, SMEs face gaps in market access and visibility. Business owners operate in highly localised environments, with limited exposure to broader networks that can unlock partnerships, new markets, and growth opportunities. This isolation can constrain scalability and reduce long-term competitiveness.
Equally important is the capability gap. Many entrepreneurs grow through resilience and experience but lack structured knowledge on critical areas such as financial management, export readiness, and digital adoption. Without this, even well-capitalised businesses can struggle to sustain growth.
These challenges point to a clear need for a more practical and integrated approach to SME support. It is no longer sufficient to offer standalone solutions. SMEs require ecosystems that combine knowledge, access, and direct engagement in ways that reflect how they actually operate.
A key shift is the move from centralised interventions to localised engagement. SMEs are deeply influenced by their immediate environments, whether markets, industrial clusters, or trade corridors. Solutions must therefore be brought closer to where these businesses function, allowing for more relevant support and stronger relationships.
Another important shift is from awareness to action. Business owners do not only need information; they need insights that they can apply immediately. This includes understanding how to structure their finances, how to access trade opportunities, and how to connect with the right partners to scale their operations.
There is also a growing need for continuity. Many SME-focused initiatives deliver strong initial impact but lack follow-through. For support to be effective, it must extend beyond one-off engagements into sustained relationships, with clear pathways for onboarding, advisory, and growth.
For financial institutions, this presents both responsibility and an opportunity. Supporting SMEs now requires moving beyond transactional banking to deeper partnership models. It requires understanding businesses at a granular level and co-creating solutions that evolve with their needs.
At Stanbic IBTC, this perspective continues to shape our approach to SME development. Our focus is on delivering practical support that translates into real business outcomes, helping enterprises grow, compete, and contribute more meaningfully to the economy.
As part of this commitment, we are extending our SME engagement to the regions through the Nigeria Business Summit Regional Tour. The tour will take structured, on-ground activations into key commercial hubs, where SMEs can access funding guidance, trade insights, advisory support, and direct engagement with financial experts.
The regional tour will take place across five strategic locations, bringing these solutions closer to business owners in Aba, Onitsha, Ibadan and Kano.
This approach reflects an important principle. When support moves closer to businesses and when solutions are delivered in ways that are practical and continuous, SMEs are better positioned to grow sustainably. In turn, this strengthens not only individual enterprises but the broader economy.
Olajumoke Bello is the Head of Enterprise Banking at Stanbic IBTC Bank
