Feature/OPED
Towards the Depoliticising of Forensic Audit on NDDC
By Obiaruko Christie Ndukwe
The Niger Delta people will, for a long time, remain wholeheartedly grateful to President Muhammadu Buhari for the immense goodwill he has shown to the good people of the oil-rich but a beleaguered region, through the various projects and programmes aimed at the total development and emancipation of the Niger Delta region.
We must acknowledge the concerted effort towards the completion of the East-West highway, the reintroduction of the Petroleum Industry Bill (P.I.B) to the National Assembly, the construction of the national headquarters of the Nigerian Content Development Monitoring Board (NCDMB) in the heart of the Niger Delta region, the monumental Bonny-Bodo road project, as well as the move to reposition the Niger Delta Development Commission (NDDC) through the institution of a forensic audit of the commission, just to mention but a few of the projects and programmes which has definitely put the region on the spotlight and assures that the region is on a steady path of growth and development as well as liberation from the clutches of entrenched stagnation and backwardness which has kept the region utterly underdeveloped and abandoned, over the decades.
While we are grateful for this effort, we emphasise that there is still a vacuum and a yearning, to do more for further development of the Niger Delta region.
Certainly, when the recap of events that made news in 2020 is done, one of the stories that will easily come to mind is the much-publicised probe of the NDDC by the National Assembly and for sure, a lot of people will love it, not just because it is a sordid and seamy commentary on the Niger Delta struggle, but mainly because recent events have exposed, albeit inadvertently, that whole exercise for what people have always termed it; a terrible, terrible entertainment.
The very sight of the Acting Managing Director of NDDC, Prof. Kemebradikumo Daniel Pondei losing his breath before the glaring cameras of national and international television should, ordinarily evoke solemnity and somewhat of sadness at the near loss of life, in the course of dedication to national service but this will be reduced further down the slope of horrific spectacles when the cardinal issues that gave rise to that probe, which includes the forensic audit ordered by President Buhari on NDDC, is discovered to have been highly politicized, and designed to be poorly executed, by high calibre politicians, seeking with a highway exit ramp out of the impending expository series which the forensic audit is sure to kickstart.
Needless to say, even party chieftains from both sides of the frontline political divides in the country sought to nail the Minister for Niger Delta Affairs, Godswill Akpabio, rather than live to see the exercise succeed.
Many a group who stood in the gap, intent and determined to brave the odds to ensure that NDDC does not fail in the mandate given to it as a creation of law, to salvage the Niger Delta from environmental degradation and entrench a developmental ideology, will be at a loss and in utter consternation at the sudden twist of fate.
It is sad that the NDDC, which some civil society and advocacy groups of goodwill fought to defend and liberate from the jackals and hyenas, has become a prisoner of sorts, to what looms the selfish interest of a selected few.
It does appear that the collective heritage of the entire Niger Delta region, comprising nine states (Abia, Akwa-Ibom, Bayelsa, Cross-River, Delta, Edo, Imo, Ondo and Rivers) have become the estate of not just the National Assembly members (especially principal officers and members of National Assembly Joint Committee on NDDC), but also of the NDDC management and senior staff as well as the Ministry of Niger Affairs!
The sordid tales of the rape of the Niger Delta has dominated the National discourse, this year, 2020 and has sadly not taken even a casualty, because the dramatis personae of this tragicomedy have insisted on a political solution, rather than a humanitarian approach to the issues raised, whereby the people of Niger Delta will have a breath a fresh and for once in a long time, benefit from their Natural endowment, which is the oil at their backyard. It is so sad to note that in December 2020, the budget details for the 2020 budget of the NDDC has neither been approved by the National Assembly nor released to the commission. What this means is that the Commission is technically grounded and unable to function effectively or even meet up with its expectations to the Niger Deltans.
As though that is not enough setback, to a beleaguered people, reports have it that the much talked about the forensic audit on the account of NDDC, from inception till date, is gradually becoming a reality, that paucity of funds has been programmed to frustrate the development of the region under Buhari, through the non-release of the 2020 budget details of the NDDC by the National Assembly.
The target could be to ensure that the commission engages in extra-budgetary spending, or rather, unbudgeted expenditure, so as to have a reason to nail the forensic audit report and make it stillborn.
This is because the key perpetrators of these shenanigans have concocted allegations against the Minister of Niger Delta Affairs saying that he is clearly being browbeaten into shielding his friends and associates, as well as cronies and fellow party men from being exposed by the audit, through the careful removal of files containing their shady deals and bloated cum unexecuted but fully paid projects, from the records of the commission, thus making it impossible for the forensic auditors to unmask the pillagers and looters for who they truly are. On the other hand, they expect that he should kill, completely, the whole idea of a forensic audit.
It will be a profanity of the anti-corruption stance which Mr President professes if this onslaught by people obviously determined to thwart the goodwill of Africa’s celebrated anti-corruption crusader towards the oil-rich Niger Delta region.
Those bent on frustrating the efforts of the Minister for the sake of hijacking the treasury of the commission to feather their nests towards the 2023 elections had succeeded in crippling the activities of the last interim management committee, under Prof Daniel K. Pondei while plotting a careful takeover of the affairs of the commission through a list of surrogates as members of the substantive board of directors, albeit illegal and skewed.
It may not be common knowledge for those who are ignorant of the behind-the-scene happenings at the commission that for over four months, the NDDC has had its accounts frozen and a lien placed on the said accounts, deliberately forcing the oil and gas companies to pay their statutory 3% and 5% commission into a special account named EFCC/NDDC instead of the NDDC account domiciled with the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).
While the yearly federal allocation dropped from N80 billion to N45 billion and exhausted within five months on payment of contractors, foreign scholarships amongst others; the commission became cash-strapped as a highly placed principal officer of the Nigerian Senate in active connivance with the longest-serving member of staff of the commission, wrote petitions to the EFCC and ICPC, forcing the anti-corruption agencies to move against the IMC.
In a rather unfortunate twist, instead of commencing investigations while allowing the commission to function, the EFCC has simply halted payment of contractors
Thus, there is an urgent need to address this impasse before it snowballs into a national embarrassment as the ex-agitators in the region have begun threats to stall the flow of oil through the pipelines. The damage to the economy cannot be imagined if the situation is not nipped in the bud.
Obiaruko Christie Ndukwe is the President of Citizens Quest for Truth Initiative, Abuja
Feature/OPED
What Does Nigeria’s $51bn Reserves Milestone Mean if Most New Foreign Money Can Leave Quickly?
Nigeria’s foreign reserves have climbed to about $51 billion, a decade-plus high, according to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). EBC Financial Group (EBC) notes that this reflects stronger investor confidence, but the second half may show whether it holds, as the build rests on three cyclical drivers: oil earnings, short-term foreign money and a narrowing official-to-street naira gap.
Reserves rose from about $32 billion in April 2024, during a dollar shortage, to about $51 billion now, near the CBN’s target. Much came from two cyclical sources, strong oil earnings and money chasing high-yielding naira assets, so EBC expects the pace to slow or reverse. Fitch Ratings, a major international credit rating agency, expects a marginal decline to about $47 billion by the end of 2026, citing higher spending and external pressures.
David Precious, Senior Market Analyst at EBC Financial Group, said, “Nigeria’s reserve build is real but may not be durable yet, because nearly all of the new money is the kind that can leave quickly. Of the $10.37 billion that came in over the first quarter, the overwhelming majority was short-term portfolio funds rather than long-term investment, so a shift in oil prices, global interest rates or confidence in the naira might pull a large part of it straight back out.”
Most New Money Can Still Leave Quickly
The composition of the foreign inflows explains the caution over how long the build can last. The country attracted $10.37 billion in foreign investment in the first quarter of 2026, up 83.83 per cent year-on-year, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). Of that, $9.86 billion or 95.09 per cent, was portfolio money, largely short-term naira debt such as Treasury bills that investors can sell at the next auction, while foreign direct investment, the long-term kind that builds factories and jobs, was $135.08 million, or 1.30 per cent. Put simply, of each dollar coming in, about 95 cents can leave quickly, and barely one cent stays.
That money supports reserves while it stays. Dollars brought in to buy naira assets add to market supply, letting the CBN hold more reserves and steady the naira. It leaves when conditions change. Nigeria earns most of its export dollars from oil and gas, so lower oil prices mean fewer dollars, and as a member of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), it cannot simply produce more, output capped by quota and reduced by theft and ageing fields. Higher global interest rates draw money toward safer returns abroad, and a weakening naira prompts investors to sell early. When oil fell in 2016 and 2020, foreign investors withdrew and could not convert naira to dollars as supply dried up, leaving the CBN to clear more than $7 billion in trapped obligations into 2024.
The Oil Boost is No Longer Certain
Oil looked like a dependable source of the dollars behind the reserves only months ago. Earlier in 2026, concern over disruption around the Strait of Hormuz lifted crude prices, and stronger receipts flowed in, with crude oil export earnings of $8.11 billion in the first quarter in the CBN’s balance-of-payments data. That support is now easing. The tension has subsided, and Brent traded near $72 on June 29, down about 24 per cent over the month, back to pre-conflict levels. With the price boost gone and output constrained, reserves are more exposed, leaning on non-oil earnings and investor patience rather than oil.
The Naira Still Trades at Two Prices
The naira has traded at two prices, an official rate and a higher parallel-market rate, and closing that gap into one trusted price is what many investors might watch most. Before committing funds, they may want assurance they can convert naira to dollars at a fair rate when they exit, and a wide gap revives the fear of being trapped that lingers from earlier shortages. The gap has narrowed to roughly N20 to N30, with the CBN’s official rate near N1,380 per dollar on June 26 against parallel-market quotes around N1,400. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) 2026 Article IV review urged Nigeria to depend less on this fast-moving portfolio money and to keep phasing out its multiple exchange-rate practices. The CBN’s Foreign Exchange Manual, in force from 1 June, is intended to make the market clearer, though such rules build confidence only once investors can freely trade dollars at the posted rate.
What could Make the Build Durable
A few signs that may show the build turning durable include a smaller gap between the official and street naira rates, more long-term foreign investment, and steadier oil earnings. A gap that stays small, now roughly N20 to N30, may mean investors trust the official rate and no longer need the street market. A clear rise in foreign direct investment, only $135 million last quarter against $9.86 billion of short-term money, might mean lasting capital is replacing funds that can leave at the next auction. Oil earnings that hold up, rather than sliding from the low $70s, should help keep reserves steady, since oil and gas bring in most of Nigeria’s export dollars.
“Reserves built on money chasing high yields can fall as fast as they rose, as they did after the last two oil shocks, when investors left, and the CBN spent years clearing a foreign-exchange backlog,” Precious added. “What holds through a downturn is slower money, direct investment, steady oil and non-oil export earnings and one credible naira rate, and that is the shift Nigeria has yet to make.”
By Olajumoke Bello
Across Nigeria, small and medium enterprises remain the backbone of economic activity. They drive trade, create jobs, and sustain millions of livelihoods. Yet, despite their importance, many SMEs continue to operate below their full potential due to persistent structural challenges.
Access to finance remains one of the most cited constraints. However, the issue today goes beyond the availability of capital. Many businesses struggle with financial readiness, weak documentation, and limited understanding of what lenders require. This often leads to missed opportunities, even when funding options exist.
At the same time, SMEs face gaps in market access and visibility. Business owners operate in highly localised environments, with limited exposure to broader networks that can unlock partnerships, new markets, and growth opportunities. This isolation can constrain scalability and reduce long-term competitiveness.
Equally important is the capability gap. Many entrepreneurs grow through resilience and experience but lack structured knowledge on critical areas such as financial management, export readiness, and digital adoption. Without this, even well-capitalised businesses can struggle to sustain growth.
These challenges point to a clear need for a more practical and integrated approach to SME support. It is no longer sufficient to offer standalone solutions. SMEs require ecosystems that combine knowledge, access, and direct engagement in ways that reflect how they actually operate.
A key shift is the move from centralised interventions to localised engagement. SMEs are deeply influenced by their immediate environments, whether markets, industrial clusters, or trade corridors. Solutions must therefore be brought closer to where these businesses function, allowing for more relevant support and stronger relationships.
Another important shift is from awareness to action. Business owners do not only need information; they need insights that they can apply immediately. This includes understanding how to structure their finances, how to access trade opportunities, and how to connect with the right partners to scale their operations.
There is also a growing need for continuity. Many SME-focused initiatives deliver strong initial impact but lack follow-through. For support to be effective, it must extend beyond one-off engagements into sustained relationships, with clear pathways for onboarding, advisory, and growth.
For financial institutions, this presents both responsibility and an opportunity. Supporting SMEs now requires moving beyond transactional banking to deeper partnership models. It requires understanding businesses at a granular level and co-creating solutions that evolve with their needs.
At Stanbic IBTC, this perspective continues to shape our approach to SME development. Our focus is on delivering practical support that translates into real business outcomes, helping enterprises grow, compete, and contribute more meaningfully to the economy.
As part of this commitment, we are extending our SME engagement to the regions through the Nigeria Business Summit Regional Tour. The tour will take structured, on-ground activations into key commercial hubs, where SMEs can access funding guidance, trade insights, advisory support, and direct engagement with financial experts.
The regional tour will take place across five strategic locations, bringing these solutions closer to business owners in Aba, Onitsha, Ibadan and Kano.
This approach reflects an important principle. When support moves closer to businesses and when solutions are delivered in ways that are practical and continuous, SMEs are better positioned to grow sustainably. In turn, this strengthens not only individual enterprises but the broader economy.
Olajumoke Bello is the Head of Enterprise Banking at Stanbic IBTC Bank
By Winston Osuchukwu
The average Nigerian borrower is widely considered high-risk – a claim repeated in credit committees, priced into retail loans, and largely treated as settled fact. Every credit market accepts that an individual loan may not be repaid; this is ordinary, priced risk. The high-risk claim, however, is applied to whole segments – the informal trader, the gig economy earner whose income is steady but split across several accounts, the remote worker paid by an overseas client into a fintech FX wallet. What the assessment establishes is not whether they are likely to repay, but how they fit into an arbitrary segment. Having spent years building decisioning systems for this market, my thesis is a specific one: “high-risk” does not mean “no credit” – it simply requires that the lender embrace alternative datasets to price the risk appropriately.
This is not a criticism of the institutions that built their frameworks around collateral and documentation; those were rational responses to the tools available at the time. When data is scarce, prudence means defaulting to the status quo. The limitation is not that this approach is wrong, but that it leaves a blind spot – excluding fundamentally sound borrowers whose economic lives simply are not captured on the bank’s ledger. A market trader who has moved consistent, growing volumes of cash through mobile money for three years is not, in any meaningful sense, unknowable. Their financial behaviour is observable and patterned; it simply occurs outside the traditional banking system, rendering it invisible to conventional underwriting.
This is the gap technology is now positioned to close – not by replacing institutional judgment, but by augmenting it. When AI-driven analysis is applied rigorously to the financial behaviour these borrowers generate, a far more complete picture of their repayment ability emerges – and a meaningful share presents a risk profile that compares favourably with segments the traditional system has long considered safe. The “high-risk” label, applied broadly to an entire category of borrower, was never a risk pricing tool so much as the limit of what the available tools could see.
For banks, this is the opportunity to extend capital with confidence beyond the borrowers who fit their stringent criteria. Nigerian banks are highly liquid; the constraint on credit growth has rarely been capital, but the ability to assess and price the borrowers who sit outside the traditional file. Close that gap, and the whole ecosystem strengthens: banks grow their loan books into segments they have long wanted to serve, and the real economy gets the capital it needs to expand.
This is precisely what we focus on at Mathesis Analytics: building AI-powered credit decisioning that gives lenders a fuller, more defensible picture of the individuals long excluded as high-risk when they were simply misjudged. The Nigerian credit gap has never been a non-lendable population problem, but one of incomplete visibility. By unifying varied data sources and partnering with the institutions that hold the capital and scale to move the market, we translate out-of-ecosystem behaviour into reliable, bank-grade risk scores. Closing this gap is one of the clearest, highest-leverage opportunities in Nigerian financial services today.
Winston Osuchukwu is the founder & CEO of Mathesis Analytics
