Feature/OPED
Forensic Audit: A Test of Buhari’s Integrity
By Obiaruko Christie Ndukwe
The battle lines were drawn, the drums of war drowning the initial applause that greeted the order for the financial probe of the corruption-riddled interventionist agency, the Niger Delta Development Commission (NDDC), whose headquarters is in Port Harcourt, Rivers State.
The first Salvo was fired by the Vice President sometime in May 2019, while on a visit to Delta State. Professor Yemi Osinbajo had publicly declared the commission a non-performer having failed to fulfil its first mandate of developing the oil-rich Niger Delta, in 9 out of 36 states. This shot by President Muhammadu Buhari’s deputy had sent the signal that all was not well with the 19-year-old agency.
This created a loophole for the Governors of the 9 states to wake up from their slumber, and together they paid a visit to the President and demanded the probe of the NDDC.
The move by the Governors who were mostly of the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) was seen as a political witch hunt against the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), which was now in control of the commission.
Many believed that the Governors were on a mission to provoke the President against some of his party men from the region who were believed to have their fingers in the pie.
But in a twist of fate, the President, realizing the insidious agenda of the Governors, rather than settle for a probe of the commission from the period APC took over the reins of government, decided to extend the period of the probe from the date of inception to 2019.
The Governors were somehow trapped in their own nets, considering that the APC under Buhari had controlled the NDDC for five years out of the 19-year period. Some of them were actually involved in the sleaze that had characterized the agency and in turn, underdeveloped the region.
The responsibility of supervising the commission rightfully fell on the Minister of Niger Delta Affairs and the supervising Minister of the NDDC, Mr Godswill Akpabio, who was surprisingly appointed a Minister, having lost his earlier bid to return to the Senate, after a thunderous defection to the APC from the PDP.
He was a former Governor of Akwa Ibom State. Akpabio became the burden-bearer as those who were against the forensic audit of the commission let out all arsenals against him, all in a bid to frustrate the probe.
It is no longer news that the battleground became the National Assembly as the two Committees on NDDC in both chambers pulled every string to stop the audit, or at least, to ensure that Akpabio, who was one of them in the 6th Assembly, did not supervise the exercise. It was a widely celebrated battle that pitched the management of the commission against the parliament. It was an epic battle even while the COVID-19 pandemic threatened.
There were efforts to weaken the probe even as the National Assembly fought back. One such way was the stoppage of funds accrued to the organisation, thereby, crippling every activity in the region through the NDDC.
The International Oil Companies (IOCs), which were largely responsible for the funding of the commission, were forced by the Economic Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) to stop payments to the NDDC account domiciled at the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).
An account tagged NDDC/EFCC was later opened with the CBN, and the IOCs were compelled to pay monies in there, and the EFCC ensured that neither the management of the commission nor the Minister could access the funds.
While the whole drama was on, President Buhari did not bulge as he found a way to navigate out of the roadblocks posed by the National Assembly. He chose to make available the funds for the forensic auditors and quickly had them inaugurated for the assignment.
The urge by Akpabio to resign his appointment, at some point, was deep, yet he was resilient to see to the end of the presidential order, to ascertain the reason why the region had remained underdeveloped in spite of all the monies released for projects.
After a painstaking period of two years, without any contracts awarded or new projects executed, the forensic audit has been concluded. The President has received the report albeit through the Attorney General of the Federation and Minister of Justice, Mr Abubakar Malami.
Over 13,000 jobs were said to have been awarded, mobilization paid at 90% and yet, uncompleted or abandoned. A more scary revelation by Akpabio during the presentation of the report was that a whooping N3.2 trillion was paid out during the period in a cheque from 2001 to 2019 and an additional N2.5 trillion from statutory and non-statutory income, bringing the total sum to N6 trillion from the inception of the commission till August 2019.
It is no longer surprising why the fight was intense to scuttle the probe as initial fingers pointed at members of the National Assembly, past and present; political leaders and people of the region in active connivance with people outside the region; the security agencies and in some cases, from the presidency.
Even though the President has shown enough commitment to further investigate and prosecute those to be indicted, there are still doubts in the minds of most Nigerians on the reality of his assurances.
This stems from the belief that 75% of those involved in the merciless rape of the region’s resources are in his party and some, in his government.
Again, there are those who think that the President only hires but fails to fire. Not minding the recent sack of two Ministers.
While Buhari must be commended to toe the path where those before him failed, the President must complete the task by revealing the identities of those behind the monumental corruption in the NDDC, no matter how veiled their identities are, considering that very many of the high profile persons may have used pseudo companies, and in some cases, withdrawn their membership of those companies from the Corporate Affairs Commission (CAC).
The man in the eye of the storm, Senator Akpabio will not be spared more arrows, for either doing a good job or a bad one; depending on which line of the divide he is viewed. Even though it is not his probe, but Buhari’s!
The time for the President’s highly touted integrity to be put on a scale is now. His ability to resist the temptation of dumping the much-advertised audit will further prove his sincerity to spare no one, irrespective of whose ox is gored, and bring to book those who have voraciously cleaned out the resources of the poor people of the region that has continued to survive the nation’s economy, through oil and gas.
If the report is left in the hands of those who would use it as a tool for political witch hunt; or for “settlement”, then, there was no need in the first place for downing the tools and grinding the commission to a halt for a period of 2 years.
Whatever happens, we, the people of the region demand to know who did what and what is to become of the monies trapped in that phoney safe tagged NDDC/EFCC account?
Obiaruko Christie Ndukwe is a commentator, analyst and columnist based in Port Harcourt, Rivers State
Feature/OPED
What Does Nigeria’s $51bn Reserves Milestone Mean if Most New Foreign Money Can Leave Quickly?
Nigeria’s foreign reserves have climbed to about $51 billion, a decade-plus high, according to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). EBC Financial Group (EBC) notes that this reflects stronger investor confidence, but the second half may show whether it holds, as the build rests on three cyclical drivers: oil earnings, short-term foreign money and a narrowing official-to-street naira gap.
Reserves rose from about $32 billion in April 2024, during a dollar shortage, to about $51 billion now, near the CBN’s target. Much came from two cyclical sources, strong oil earnings and money chasing high-yielding naira assets, so EBC expects the pace to slow or reverse. Fitch Ratings, a major international credit rating agency, expects a marginal decline to about $47 billion by the end of 2026, citing higher spending and external pressures.
David Precious, Senior Market Analyst at EBC Financial Group, said, “Nigeria’s reserve build is real but may not be durable yet, because nearly all of the new money is the kind that can leave quickly. Of the $10.37 billion that came in over the first quarter, the overwhelming majority was short-term portfolio funds rather than long-term investment, so a shift in oil prices, global interest rates or confidence in the naira might pull a large part of it straight back out.”
Most New Money Can Still Leave Quickly
The composition of the foreign inflows explains the caution over how long the build can last. The country attracted $10.37 billion in foreign investment in the first quarter of 2026, up 83.83 per cent year-on-year, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). Of that, $9.86 billion or 95.09 per cent, was portfolio money, largely short-term naira debt such as Treasury bills that investors can sell at the next auction, while foreign direct investment, the long-term kind that builds factories and jobs, was $135.08 million, or 1.30 per cent. Put simply, of each dollar coming in, about 95 cents can leave quickly, and barely one cent stays.
That money supports reserves while it stays. Dollars brought in to buy naira assets add to market supply, letting the CBN hold more reserves and steady the naira. It leaves when conditions change. Nigeria earns most of its export dollars from oil and gas, so lower oil prices mean fewer dollars, and as a member of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), it cannot simply produce more, output capped by quota and reduced by theft and ageing fields. Higher global interest rates draw money toward safer returns abroad, and a weakening naira prompts investors to sell early. When oil fell in 2016 and 2020, foreign investors withdrew and could not convert naira to dollars as supply dried up, leaving the CBN to clear more than $7 billion in trapped obligations into 2024.
The Oil Boost is No Longer Certain
Oil looked like a dependable source of the dollars behind the reserves only months ago. Earlier in 2026, concern over disruption around the Strait of Hormuz lifted crude prices, and stronger receipts flowed in, with crude oil export earnings of $8.11 billion in the first quarter in the CBN’s balance-of-payments data. That support is now easing. The tension has subsided, and Brent traded near $72 on June 29, down about 24 per cent over the month, back to pre-conflict levels. With the price boost gone and output constrained, reserves are more exposed, leaning on non-oil earnings and investor patience rather than oil.
The Naira Still Trades at Two Prices
The naira has traded at two prices, an official rate and a higher parallel-market rate, and closing that gap into one trusted price is what many investors might watch most. Before committing funds, they may want assurance they can convert naira to dollars at a fair rate when they exit, and a wide gap revives the fear of being trapped that lingers from earlier shortages. The gap has narrowed to roughly N20 to N30, with the CBN’s official rate near N1,380 per dollar on June 26 against parallel-market quotes around N1,400. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) 2026 Article IV review urged Nigeria to depend less on this fast-moving portfolio money and to keep phasing out its multiple exchange-rate practices. The CBN’s Foreign Exchange Manual, in force from 1 June, is intended to make the market clearer, though such rules build confidence only once investors can freely trade dollars at the posted rate.
What could Make the Build Durable
A few signs that may show the build turning durable include a smaller gap between the official and street naira rates, more long-term foreign investment, and steadier oil earnings. A gap that stays small, now roughly N20 to N30, may mean investors trust the official rate and no longer need the street market. A clear rise in foreign direct investment, only $135 million last quarter against $9.86 billion of short-term money, might mean lasting capital is replacing funds that can leave at the next auction. Oil earnings that hold up, rather than sliding from the low $70s, should help keep reserves steady, since oil and gas bring in most of Nigeria’s export dollars.
“Reserves built on money chasing high yields can fall as fast as they rose, as they did after the last two oil shocks, when investors left, and the CBN spent years clearing a foreign-exchange backlog,” Precious added. “What holds through a downturn is slower money, direct investment, steady oil and non-oil export earnings and one credible naira rate, and that is the shift Nigeria has yet to make.”
By Olajumoke Bello
Across Nigeria, small and medium enterprises remain the backbone of economic activity. They drive trade, create jobs, and sustain millions of livelihoods. Yet, despite their importance, many SMEs continue to operate below their full potential due to persistent structural challenges.
Access to finance remains one of the most cited constraints. However, the issue today goes beyond the availability of capital. Many businesses struggle with financial readiness, weak documentation, and limited understanding of what lenders require. This often leads to missed opportunities, even when funding options exist.
At the same time, SMEs face gaps in market access and visibility. Business owners operate in highly localised environments, with limited exposure to broader networks that can unlock partnerships, new markets, and growth opportunities. This isolation can constrain scalability and reduce long-term competitiveness.
Equally important is the capability gap. Many entrepreneurs grow through resilience and experience but lack structured knowledge on critical areas such as financial management, export readiness, and digital adoption. Without this, even well-capitalised businesses can struggle to sustain growth.
These challenges point to a clear need for a more practical and integrated approach to SME support. It is no longer sufficient to offer standalone solutions. SMEs require ecosystems that combine knowledge, access, and direct engagement in ways that reflect how they actually operate.
A key shift is the move from centralised interventions to localised engagement. SMEs are deeply influenced by their immediate environments, whether markets, industrial clusters, or trade corridors. Solutions must therefore be brought closer to where these businesses function, allowing for more relevant support and stronger relationships.
Another important shift is from awareness to action. Business owners do not only need information; they need insights that they can apply immediately. This includes understanding how to structure their finances, how to access trade opportunities, and how to connect with the right partners to scale their operations.
There is also a growing need for continuity. Many SME-focused initiatives deliver strong initial impact but lack follow-through. For support to be effective, it must extend beyond one-off engagements into sustained relationships, with clear pathways for onboarding, advisory, and growth.
For financial institutions, this presents both responsibility and an opportunity. Supporting SMEs now requires moving beyond transactional banking to deeper partnership models. It requires understanding businesses at a granular level and co-creating solutions that evolve with their needs.
At Stanbic IBTC, this perspective continues to shape our approach to SME development. Our focus is on delivering practical support that translates into real business outcomes, helping enterprises grow, compete, and contribute more meaningfully to the economy.
As part of this commitment, we are extending our SME engagement to the regions through the Nigeria Business Summit Regional Tour. The tour will take structured, on-ground activations into key commercial hubs, where SMEs can access funding guidance, trade insights, advisory support, and direct engagement with financial experts.
The regional tour will take place across five strategic locations, bringing these solutions closer to business owners in Aba, Onitsha, Ibadan and Kano.
This approach reflects an important principle. When support moves closer to businesses and when solutions are delivered in ways that are practical and continuous, SMEs are better positioned to grow sustainably. In turn, this strengthens not only individual enterprises but the broader economy.
Olajumoke Bello is the Head of Enterprise Banking at Stanbic IBTC Bank
By Winston Osuchukwu
The average Nigerian borrower is widely considered high-risk – a claim repeated in credit committees, priced into retail loans, and largely treated as settled fact. Every credit market accepts that an individual loan may not be repaid; this is ordinary, priced risk. The high-risk claim, however, is applied to whole segments – the informal trader, the gig economy earner whose income is steady but split across several accounts, the remote worker paid by an overseas client into a fintech FX wallet. What the assessment establishes is not whether they are likely to repay, but how they fit into an arbitrary segment. Having spent years building decisioning systems for this market, my thesis is a specific one: “high-risk” does not mean “no credit” – it simply requires that the lender embrace alternative datasets to price the risk appropriately.
This is not a criticism of the institutions that built their frameworks around collateral and documentation; those were rational responses to the tools available at the time. When data is scarce, prudence means defaulting to the status quo. The limitation is not that this approach is wrong, but that it leaves a blind spot – excluding fundamentally sound borrowers whose economic lives simply are not captured on the bank’s ledger. A market trader who has moved consistent, growing volumes of cash through mobile money for three years is not, in any meaningful sense, unknowable. Their financial behaviour is observable and patterned; it simply occurs outside the traditional banking system, rendering it invisible to conventional underwriting.
This is the gap technology is now positioned to close – not by replacing institutional judgment, but by augmenting it. When AI-driven analysis is applied rigorously to the financial behaviour these borrowers generate, a far more complete picture of their repayment ability emerges – and a meaningful share presents a risk profile that compares favourably with segments the traditional system has long considered safe. The “high-risk” label, applied broadly to an entire category of borrower, was never a risk pricing tool so much as the limit of what the available tools could see.
For banks, this is the opportunity to extend capital with confidence beyond the borrowers who fit their stringent criteria. Nigerian banks are highly liquid; the constraint on credit growth has rarely been capital, but the ability to assess and price the borrowers who sit outside the traditional file. Close that gap, and the whole ecosystem strengthens: banks grow their loan books into segments they have long wanted to serve, and the real economy gets the capital it needs to expand.
This is precisely what we focus on at Mathesis Analytics: building AI-powered credit decisioning that gives lenders a fuller, more defensible picture of the individuals long excluded as high-risk when they were simply misjudged. The Nigerian credit gap has never been a non-lendable population problem, but one of incomplete visibility. By unifying varied data sources and partnering with the institutions that hold the capital and scale to move the market, we translate out-of-ecosystem behaviour into reliable, bank-grade risk scores. Closing this gap is one of the clearest, highest-leverage opportunities in Nigerian financial services today.
Winston Osuchukwu is the founder & CEO of Mathesis Analytics
