Feature/OPED
Unlocking WTO Potential in Changing Geopolitical World
Professor Maurice Okoli
Moving forward with women’s empowerment, exhibiting female leadership and entrepreneurial capabilities, Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala confirmed as the sole candidate for the World Trade Organization arguably represents the voice of the Global South and concretely the voice of Africa. Okonjo-Iweala brings unique strengths that complement traditional notions of female leadership, casting away outdated stereotypes and embracing a future full of aspirations for the powerful World Trade Organization.
By her leading roles at the WTO underscores, in many ways, the assertiveness and ability of what women could contribute in their professions to the development of society, especially in the spheres of global trade. Despite these attributes, Okonjo-Iweala as head of WTO highlights the fact that women possess the same abilities to perform with effectiveness in the field of economic and trade diplomacy.
As nominations for the next Director-General closed in early November, and Okonjo-Iweala was ultimately confirmed as the sole candidate, it offers practical grounds, at least, to celebrate her previous first-term satisfactory progress and milestone achievements on the global stage as an African, as a Nigerian citizen. Her typical African name alone resonates across the global landscape, not only portraying her distinguished career but also exposing diverse experience in fostering multifaceted trade partnerships and its associated challenges between the organization’s members in the world.
According to reports, Ambassador Petter Ølberg of Norway, Chair of the General Council, informed WTO members on 9th November that no further nominations for the position of Director-General had been received by the deadline of 8th November and that the incumbent Director-General, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, is therefore the only candidate for the role.
Director-General Okonjo-Iweala confirmed her willingness to serve a second four-year term. Okonjo-Iweala’s current term comes to an end on 31 August 2025, as the first woman, the first African is the seventh Director-General of the WTO. The WTO formally commenced the process of appointing its next Director-General, with members given until 8 November to submit nominations.
In July 2024, Okonjo-Iweala garnered unprecedented support to serve a second term at the 164 member states trade organization. In an official media release after the July 22 meeting, the WTO General Council indicated that fifty-eight (58) of the 164 member states of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) have voiced support for a proposal from the African Group backing incumbent Director-General, Okonjo-Iweala, to serve a second term.
As stipulated by the guidelines, the Director-General can serve two terms. Almost all members pointed to all the efforts and qualities of Okonjo-Iweala and her contributions to the organization which enhanced a lot of progress and development. Okonjo-Iweala, whose tenure as the DG due to end on 31st August 2025, revealed her plans to work with other members of the organization to restructure the global trade body.
“The African Group requests that the current Director-General make herself available to serve a second term, and has proposed that the process of reappointing the Director-General should be started as soon as possible,” according to the statement by the world trade body.
“Fifty-eight members, several speaking on behalf of groups of members, took the floor to comment and express their support for the African Group proposal. They called on DG Okonjo-Iweala to make her intentions regarding a second term known as soon as possible. Most of these members praised the DG’s hard work and her achievements during her first term,” it further added.
Okonjo-Iweala’s First-Term Achievements
(i) In the current emerging situation, the WTO’s task of changing the world’s trade is fraught with existing challenges and further hindered by geopolitics mostly by the key players. A classical example is the United States and China trade war, better considered as an economic conflict between two powers has persisted since January 2018 when Donald Trump, began setting tariffs and other trade barriers on China to force it to make changes to what the U.S. described as longstanding unfair trade practices and intellectual property theft. Washington has imposed tariffs on more than $360bn of Chinese goods, and China has retaliated with tariffs on more than $110bn of US products. WTO’s trade advocacy has had little influence in resolving this bilateral agreement initially signed by and binding on the United States and China.
(ii) As already know, the United States and Europe have a number of disagreements over economic relations between Russia and the former Soviet republics in the entire region. It was, however, expected that the trade organization work seriously and systematically to guarantee a rules-based international trading system. Despite the impasse in trade negotiations, and ways to modernize WTO rules and address the impending misunderstandings, much, unfortunately, remains to be reviewed. The European Union, for instance, continues to play a leading role in the WTO’s ongoing reform process, which was launched at the 12th WTO Ministerial Conference (MC12) in June 2022. Okonjo-Iweala has to address these persistent conflicts during her second term in office beginning in 2025.
(iii) The situation with the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, or ASEAN is not different from other regions. Okonjo-Iweala’s accession to the leadership of WTO four years ago was viewed as a turning point in the process of the Asian region’s integration, under the export-oriented growth regime, into the world’s trading landscape. Without mincing words here, it has to be noted that APEC and ASEAN play a major role in the world’s biggest trading bloc, and are at the centre of addressing emerging economic challenges facing the global trading system, to develop actionable policy recommendations, because more than 60% of the collective trade are targeted towards western and European markets.
(vi) On July 26, 2024, during the meeting of BRICS Economy and Foreign Trade Ministers in Moscow, representatives of BRICS economies agreed to coordinate their policies within the WTO. BRICS economies are increasingly moving towards coordinating their policies on the international stage, including in the World Trade Organization (WTO).
In an analytical report, Yaroslav Lissovolik, Founder of BRICS+ Analytics, believes that key priorities are necessary for the creation of a BRICS platform within the WTO include supporting the organization’s viability and effectiveness in resolving trade disputes (given the challenges faced in the operation of the WTO Dispute Settlement Body) as well as in countering rising protectionism. The creation of a common platform in the WTO should contribute to greater economic policy coordination for BRICS economies in the trade sphere and will also allow developing economies to play a greater role in the organization’s decision-making.
Advocating further for greater policy coordination and backing away from a long-standing call to action, which has been in process and discussions since 2017, “BRICS+ countries could … form alliances in other international organizations, including the WTO, where a BRICS+ group in negotiations could complement other South-South alliances.” Indeed, “after Russia’s WTO accession all BRICS members are now in the WTO and can create partnerships within the organization to defend national interests, advance sustainable development issues and counter the spectre of rising global protectionism.”
Another area of cooperation for BRICS in the WTO may be the provision of assistance to those BRICS core economies and partners of the grouping that have not yet secured full-fledged WTO membership. While until 2023 all BRICS core economies were members of the WTO, after the 2023-2024 core expansion two new BRICS members, namely Ethiopia and Iran, were still outside of the trade organization. A number of potential members of the BRICS partnership status, such as Belarus or Algeria, are also not yet full members of the WTO. In this respect, the WTO could target coordinated measures to support the accession process of those who have not yet secured WTO membership.
WTO and the African Union
WTO members and leading reputable investors have consistently been looking forward to exploring several opportunities in the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), a policy signed by African countries to make the continent a single market. The AfCFTA, the world’s largest new free trade area, is the flagship of the African Union, and its significance cannot be overstated. It certainly promises to increase intra-African trade through deeper levels of trade liberalization and enhanced regulatory harmonization and coordination. Moreover, it is expected to improve the competitiveness of African industries and enterprises through increased market access, the exploitation of economies of scale, and more effective resource allocation.
In fact, this should be one potential area of focus for Okonjo-Iweala as she heads for the second term unopposed. During her first term, she unreservedly expressed interest in dealing with these issues of strengthening partnerships and widening stronger trade relationships with Africa from the external players, and members of the WTO. There still exists controversy between the WTO and AU’s AfCFTA. A more consolidated approach to the continent’s trade policy may strengthen the role of the developing countries, especially the majority of those in Africa, in the WTO and advance the agenda of the Global South. With the emerging multipolar arrangement, it is necessary to facilitate external trade for Africa. This particularly has important positive implications for its inclusion into the world system, supports its economic power and ultimately raises its economic status closer to the Asian and Western world, and the G20.
The Group of Twenty (G20)
Over the past years, G20 economies, however, continued to introduce wide-ranging trade-facilitating measures, and increasing evidence points to enforcing unilateral trade policy decisions. Warning that these measures are creating uncertainty for the world economy, WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala called on G20 governments to refrain from adopting new restrictions that could worsen the global economic outlook.
Potential investors have also indicated several times, trade facilitation and called for smooth pathways into the African continent, their involvement could be beneficial to them, including in sectors like pharmaceuticals, automobiles, agro-processing and financial technology. The G20 and Africa, regulated by the WTO policies could offer sustainable growth and symbolize an integral part and essential component in the emerging multipolar economic architecture.
Professional Experience Matches Responsibility?
In these changing times, Okonjo-Iweala’s official thoughtful testimony to pursue WTO’s Director-General responsibilities, as outlined prior to her engagement, has become uttermost necessary to review outstanding challenges and their consequences for the African continent’s development, and those in the Asia-Pacific region within the entire global trading system. Vying for Director-General, for the second term, should not be considered a ceremonial position, but entails promoting transformation, through increased market access, and increasing the relationship between Africa and Asia (South-South) in global trade, and the rest of the world.
She served two terms as Finance Minister of the Federal Republic of Nigeria (2003-2006 and 2011-2015) under the political leadership of President Olusegun Obasanjo and President Goodluck Jonathan, respectively. She also briefly acted as Foreign Minister in 2006, the first woman to hold both positions. The skilled negotiator had a 25-year career at the World Bank as a development economist, rising to the number two position of Managing Director of Operations.
Biographical records show she was born into a royal family in Delta State, her father Professor Chukwuka Okonjo became the Eze (King) from the Obahai Royal Family of Ogwashi-Ukwu. With high aspirations, Okonjo-Iweala studied at prestigious Harvard University, graduating magna cum laude with an AB in Economics in 1976. In 1981, she earned her PhD in Regional Economics and Development from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) with a thesis titled Credit Policy, rural financial markets, and Nigeria’s agricultural development. She received an International Fellowship from the American Association of University Women (AAUW) that supported her doctoral studies.
Selection Procedures
On 28-29 November, the General Council will convene a special meeting aimed at advancing the process for selecting the next Director-General. Chaired by Ambassador Petter Ølberg of Norway, the meeting follows the announcement made on 9th November that no candidates for the position of Director-General had emerged by the 8th November nomination deadline other than the incumbent Director-General, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala.
In his communication to members, Ambassador Ølberg said that, based on his contacts with delegations, and as has been done in past instances where the incumbent Director-General was the only candidate, he intends to convene a special formal meeting of the General Council on 28th and 29th November.
The first day of the General Council meeting would allow members to hear a presentation from DG Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala on her vision for the WTO, followed by a question-and-answer session. The second day could then provide an opportunity for members to make a decision on the appointment of the next Director-General. Okonjo-Iweala confirmed her willingness to serve a second four-year term in a letter on 16th September.
An Insight into WTO’s Future
With a solid education and broad experience, combined with her performance during the first term, 58 member-states of the WTO have already thrown their support behind her to head the Geneva-based body. The WTO is the only global international organization dealing with the rules of trade between nations. The goal is to ensure that trade flows as smoothly, predictably and freely as possible. It currently has 164 members, monitoring each other’s practices and regulations against a set of standard trading rules to improve transparency and avoid protectionism.
In addition, WTO works to build the trading capacity of developing and least-developed countries, helping them integrate and benefit from the multilateral trading system. This is an essential part of the work. The trading system has to be inclusive, with the benefits of trade reaching as many as possible around the world, particularly in the poorest countries.
The WTO provides its members with a tried and tested system of shared rules and principles to support economic cooperation and thereby boost growth, development and job creation around the world. It provides a forum for members to raise, discuss and potentially solve the complex problems that they face. The organization deals with the global rules of trade between nations. Its main function is to ensure that trade flows as smoothly, predictably and freely as possible. There is huge value in the system of the World Trade Organization.
Professor Maurice Okoli is a fellow at the Institute for African Studies and the Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences. He is also a fellow and lecturer at the North-Eastern Federal University of Russia. He serves as an expert at the Roscongress Foundation and the Valdai Discussion Club.
As an academic researcher and economist with a keen interest in current geopolitical changes and the emerging world order, Maurice Okoli frequently contributes articles for publication in reputable media portals on different aspects of the interconnection between developing and developed countries, particularly in Asia, Africa, and Europe. With comments and suggestions, he can be reached via email: markolconsult (at) gmail (dot) com.
Feature/OPED
Why the Future of PR Depends on Healthier Client–Agency Partnerships
By Moliehi Molekoa
The start of a new year often brings optimism, new strategies, and renewed ambition. However, for the public relations and reputation management industry, the past year ended not only with optimism but also with hard-earned clarity.
2025 was more than a challenging year. It was a reckoning and a stress test for operating models, procurement practices, and, most importantly, the foundation of client–agency partnerships. For the C-suite, this is not solely an agency issue.
The year revealed a more fundamental challenge: a partnership problem that, if left unaddressed, can easily erode the very reputations, trust, and resilience agencies are hired to protect. What has emerged is not disillusionment, but the need for a clearer understanding of where established ways of working no longer reflect the reality they are meant to support.
The uncomfortable truth we keep avoiding
Public relations agencies are businesses, not cost centres or expandable resources. They are not informal extensions of internal teams, lacking the protection, stability, or benefits those teams receive. They are businesses.
Yet, across markets, agencies are often expected to operate under conditions that would raise immediate concerns in any boardroom:
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Unclear and constantly shifting scope
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Short-term contracts paired with long-term expectations
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Sixty-, ninety-, even 120-day payment terms
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Procurement-led pricing pressure divorced from delivery realities
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Pitch processes that consume months of senior talent time, often with no feedback, timelines, or accountability
If these conditions would concern you within your own organisation, they should also concern you regarding the partner responsible for your reputation.
Growth on paper, pressure in practice
On the surface, the industry appears healthy. Global market valuations continue to rise. Demand for reputation management, stakeholder engagement, crisis preparedness, and strategic counsel has never been higher.
However, beneath this top-line growth lies the uncomfortable reality: fewer than half of agencies expect meaningful profit growth, even as workloads increase and expectations rise.
This disconnect is significant. It indicates an industry being asked to deliver more across additional platforms, at greater speed, with deeper insight, and with higher risk exposure, all while absorbing increased commercial uncertainty.
For African agencies in particular, this pressure is intensified by factors such as volatile currencies, rising talent costs, fragile data infrastructure, and procurement models adopted from economies with fundamentally different conditions. This is not a complaint. It is reality.
This pressure is not one-sided. Many clients face constraints ranging from procurement mandates and short-term cost controls to internal capacity gaps, which increasingly shift responsibility outward. But pressure transfer is not the same as partnership, and left unmanaged, it creates long-term risk for both parties.
The pitching problem no one wants to own
Agencies are not anti-competition. Pitches sharpen thinking and drive excellence. What agencies increasingly challenge is how pitching is done.
Across markets, agencies participate in dozens of pitches each year, with success rates well below 20%. Senior leaders frequently invest unpaid hours, often with limited information, tight timelines, and evaluation criteria that prioritise cost over value.
And then, too often, dead silence, no feedback, no communication about delays, and a lack of decency in providing detailed feedback on the decision drivers.
In any other supplier relationship, this would not meet basic governance standards. In a profession built on intellectual capital, it suggests that expertise is undervalued.
This is also where independent pitch consultants become increasingly important and valuable if clients choose this route to help facilitate their pitch process. Their role in the process is not to advocate for agencies but to act as neutral custodians of fairness, realism, and governance. When used well, they help clients align ambition with timelines, scope, and budget, and ensure transparency and feedback that ultimately lead to better decision-making.
“More for less” is not a strategy
A particularly damaging expectation is the belief that agencies can sustainably deliver enterprise-level outcomes on limited budgets, often while dedicating nearly full-time senior resources. This is not efficiency. It is misalignment.
No executive would expect a business unit to thrive while under-resourced, overexposed, and cash-constrained. Yet agencies are often required to operate under these conditions while remaining accountable for outcomes that affect market confidence, stakeholder trust, and brand equity.
Here is a friendly reminder: reputation management is not a commodity. It is risk management.
It is value creation. It also requires investment that matches its significance.
A necessary reset
As leadership teams plan for growth, resilience, and relevance, there is both an opportunity and a responsibility to reset how agency partnerships are structured.
That reset looks like:
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Contracts that balance flexibility and sustainability
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Payment terms that reflect mutual dependency
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Pitch processes that respect time, talent, and transparency for all parties
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Scopes that align ambition with available budgets
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Relationships based on professional parity rather than power imbalance
This reset also requires discipline on the agency side – clearer articulation of value, sharper scoping, and greater transparency about how senior expertise is deployed. Partnership is not protectionism; it is mutual accountability.
The Leadership Question That Matters
The question for the C-suite is quite simple:
If your agency mirrored your internal standards of governance, fairness, and accountability, would you still be comfortable with how the relationship is structured?
If the answer is no, then change is not only necessary but also strategic. Because strong brands are built on strong partnerships. Strong partnerships endure only when both sides are recognised, respected, and resourced as businesses in their own right.
The agencies that succeed and the brands that truly thrive will be those that recognise this early and act deliberately.
Moliehi Molekoa is the Managing Director of Magna Carta Reputation Management Consultants and PRISA Board Member
Feature/OPED
Directing the Dual Workforce in the Age of AI Agents
By Linda Saunders
We will be the last generation to work with all-human workforces. This is not a provocative soundbite but a statement of fact, one that signals a fundamental shift in how organisations operate and what leadership now demands. The challenge facing today’s leaders is not simply adopting new technology but architecting an entirely new operating model where humans and autonomous AI agents work in concert.
According to Salesforce 2025 CEO research, 99% of CEOs say they are prepared to integrate digital labor into their business, yet only 51% feel fully prepared to do so. This gap between awareness and readiness reveals the central tension of this moment: we recognise the transformation ahead but lack established frameworks for navigating it. The question is no longer whether AI agents will reshape work, but whether leaders can develop the new capabilities required to direct this dual workforce effectively.
The scale of change is already visible in the data. According to the latest CIO trends, AI implementation has surged 282% year over year, jumping from 11% to 42% of organisations deploying AI at scale. Meanwhile, the IDC estimates that digital labour will generate a global economic impact of $13 trillion by 2030, with their research suggesting that agentic AI tools could enhance productivity by taking on the equivalent of almost 23% of a full-time employee’s weekly workload.
With the majority of CEOs acknowledging that digital labor will transform their company structure entirely, and that implementing agents is critical for competing in today’s economic climate, the reality is that transformation is not coming, it’s already here, and it requires a fundamental change to the way we approach leadership.
The Director of the Dual Workforce
Traditional management models, built on hierarchies of human workers executing tasks under supervision, were designed for a different era. What is needed now might be called the Director of the dual workforce, a leader whose mandate is not to execute every task but to architect and oversee effective collaboration between human teams and autonomous digital labor. This role is governed by five core principles that define how AI agents should be structured, deployed and optimised within organisations.
Structure forms the foundation. Just as organisational charts define human roles and reporting lines, leaders must design clear frameworks for AI agents, defining their scope, establishing mandates and setting boundaries for their operation. This is particularly challenging given that the average enterprise uses 897 applications, only 29% of which are connected. Leaders must create coherent structures within fragmented technology landscapes as a strong data foundation is the most critical factor for successful AI implementation. Without proper structure, agents risk operating in silos or creating new inefficiencies rather than resolving existing ones.
Oversight translates structure into accountability. Leaders must establish clear performance metrics and conduct regular reviews of their digital workforce, applying the same rigour they bring to managing human teams. This becomes essential as organisations scale beyond pilot projects and we’ve seen a significant increase in companies moving from pilot to production, indicating that the shift from experimentation to operational deployment is accelerating. It’s also clear that structured approaches to agent deployment can deliver return on investment substantially faster than do-it-yourself methods whilst reducing costs, but only when proper oversight mechanisms are in place.
To ensure agents learn from trusted data and behave as intended before deployment, training and testing is required. Leaders bear responsibility for curating the knowledge base agents access and rigorously testing their behaviour before release. This addresses a critical challenge: leaders believe their most valuable insights are trapped in roughly 19% of company data that remains siloed. The quality of training directly impacts performance and properly trained agents can achieve 75% higher accuracy than those deployed without rigorous preparation.
Additionally, strategy determines where and how to deploy agent resources for competitive advantage. This requires identifying high-value, repetitive or complex processes where AI augmentation drives meaningful impact. Early adoption patterns reveal clear trends: according to the Salesforce Agentic Enterprise Index tracking the first half of 2025, organisations saw a 119% increase in agents created, with top use cases spanning sales, service and internal business operations. The same research shows employees are engaging with AI agents 65% more frequently, and conversations are running 35% longer, suggesting that strategic deployment is finding genuine utility rather than novelty value.
The critical role of observability
The fifth principle, to observe and track, has emerged as perhaps the most critical enabler for scaling AI deployments safely. This requires real-time visibility into agent behaviour and performance, creating transparency that builds trust and enables rapid optimisation.
Given the surge in AI implementation, leaders need unified views of their AI operations to scale securely. Success hinges on seamless integration into core systems rather than isolated projects, and agentic AI demands new skills, with the top three in demand being leadership, storytelling and change management. The ability to observe and track agent performance is what makes this integration possible, allowing leaders to identify issues quickly, demonstrate accountability and make informed decisions about scaling.
The shift towards dual workforce management is already reshaping executive priorities and relationships. CIOs now partner more closely with CEOs than any other C-suite peer, reflecting their changing and central role in technology-driven strategy. Meanwhile, recent CHRO research found that 80% of Chief Human Resources Officers believe that within five years, most workforces will combine humans and AI agents, with expected productivity gains of 30% and labour cost reductions of 19%. The financial perspective has also clearly shifted dramatically, with CFOs moving away from cautious experimentation toward actively integrating AI agents into how they assess value, measure return on investment, and define broader business outcomes.
Leading the transition
The current generation of leaders are the crucial architects who must design and lead this transition. The role of director of the dual workforce is not aspirational but necessary, grounded in principles that govern effective agent deployment. Success requires moving beyond viewing AI as a technical initiative to understanding it as an organisational transformation that touches every aspect of operations, from workflow design to performance management to strategic planning.
This transformation also demands new capabilities from leaders themselves. The skills that defined effective management in all-human workforces remain important but are no longer sufficient. Leaders must develop fluency in understanding agent capabilities and limitations, learn to design workflows that optimally divide labor between humans and machines, and cultivate the ability to measure and optimise performance across both types of workers. They must also navigate the human dimensions of this transition, helping employees understand how their roles evolve, ensuring that the benefits of productivity gains are distributed fairly, and maintaining organisational cultures that value human judgement and creativity even as routine tasks migrate to digital labor.
The responsibility to direct what comes next, to architect systems where human creativity, judgement and relationship-building combine with the scalability, consistency and analytical power of AI agents, rests with today’s leaders. The organisations that thrive will be those whose directors embrace this mandate, developing the structures, oversight mechanisms, training protocols, strategic frameworks and observability systems that allow dual workforces to deliver on their considerable promise.
Feature/OPED
Energy Transition: Will Nigeria Go Green Only To Go Broke?
By Isah Kamisu Madachi
Nigeria has been preparing for a sustainable future beyond oil for years. At COP26 in the UK, the country announced its commitment to carbon neutrality by 2060. Shortly after the event, the Energy Transition Plan (ETP) was unveiled, the Climate Change Act 2021 was passed and signed into law, and an Energy Transition Office was created for the implementations. These were impressive efforts, and they truly speak highly of the seriousness of the federal government. However, beyond climate change stress, there’s an angle to look at this issue, because in practice, an important question in this conversation that needs to be answered is: how exactly will Nigeria’s economy be when oil finally stops paying the bills?
For decades, oil has been the backbone of public finance in Nigeria. It funds budgets, stabilises foreign exchange, supports states through monthly FAAC allocations, and quietly props up the naira. Even when production falls or prices fluctuate, the optimism has always been that oil will somehow carry Nigeria through the storms. It is even boldly acknowledged in the available policy document of the energy transition plan that global fossil fuel demand will decline. But it does not fully confront what that decline means for a country of roughly 230 million people whose economy is still largely structured around oil dollars.
Energy transition is often discussed from the angle of the emissions issue alone. However, for Nigeria, it is first an economic survival issue. Evidence already confirms that oil now contributes less to GDP than it used to, but it remains central to government revenue and foreign exchange earnings. When oil revenues drop, the effects are felt in budget shortfalls, rising debt, currency pressure, and inflation. Nigerians experienced this reality during periods of oil price crashes, from 2014 to the pandemic shock.
The Energy Transition Plan promises to lift 100 million Nigerians out of poverty, expand energy access, preserve jobs, and lead a fair transition in Africa. These are necessary goals for a future beyond fossil fuels. But this bold ambition alone does not replace revenue. If oil earnings shrink faster than alternative sources grow, the transition risks deepening fiscal stress rather than easing it. Without a clear post-oil revenue strategy tied directly to the transition, Nigeria may end up cleaner with the net-zero goals achieved, but poorer.
Jobs need to be considered, too. The plan recognises that employment in the oil sector will decline over time. What should be taken into consideration is where large-scale employment will come from. Renewable energy, of course, creates jobs, but not automatically, and not at the scale oil-related value chains once supported, unless deliberately designed to do so. Solar panels assembled abroad and imported into Nigeria will hardly replace lost oil jobs. Local manufacturing, large-scale skills development, and industrial policy are what make the difference, yet these remain weak links in Nigeria’s transition conversation.
The same problem is glaringly present in public finance. States that depend heavily on oil-derived allocations are already struggling to pay salaries, though with improvement after fuel subsidy removal. A future with less oil revenue will only worsen this unless states are supported to proactively build formidably productive local economies. Energy transition, if disconnected from economic diversification, could unintentionally widen inequality between regions and states and also exacerbate dependence on internal and external borrowing.
There is also the foreign exchange question. Oil export is still Nigeria’s main source of dollars. As global demand shifts and revenues decline, pressure on the naira will likely intensify unless non-oil exports rise in a dramatically meaningful way. However, Nigeria’s non-oil export base remains very narrow. Agriculture, solid minerals, manufacturing, and services are often mentioned, but rarely aligned with the Energy Transition Plan in a concrete and measurable way.
The core issue here is not about Nigeria wanting to transition, but that it wants to transition without rethinking how the economy earns, spends, and survives. Clean energy will not automatically fix public finance, stabilise the currency, or replace lost oil income and jobs. Those outcomes require deliberate and strategic economic choices that go beyond power generation and meeting emissions targets. Otherwise, the country will be walking into a future where oil is no longer dependable, yet nothing else has been built strongly enough to pay the bills as oil did.
Isah Kamisu Madachi is a policy analyst and development practitioner. He writes from Abuja and can be reached via [email protected]
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