Feature/OPED
Wastes, Economics, Imagination, Capitalism, War & Evolution
By Nneka Okumazie
The biggest threat to collective national security is waste. What should be the second-largest employer to whatever the first is, is waste control. It is possible to connect all the conflicts and diseases of the first fifth of this century to the growth of wastes.
Energy gives off waste – that waste is not good for the environment.
Waste is the other end of productivity.
The indifference about wastes pressures high gear productivity that disregards its risks.
The problem of waste is so grievous that half of the budget in some places – at certain period should be dedicated to tens of methods for waste control.
The unimportance of waste control says something about the world – that without something becoming a catastrophe, it may never get attention, no matter the pre-indication.
This problem of waste is just one of the larger problems of imagination extinction.
The latter end of the last century and this century is a new, new world.
There are lots of agreed answers about how the world works that continue to be defied by the present time.
It may soon be realized that some of the top problems of the world have ties to one of the most famous phrases – survival of the fittest.
That phrase, as a competition drug, drove many extremities – across ideologies, groups, conflicts, places, etc.
Evolution, widely accepted, would probably have been better without that phrase.
Just like many blame many parts of religions for many problems, survival of the fittest is evolution’s evil.
Maybe survival of the fittest may have been necessary in a small population, or in a risky situation, but the survival of the fittest is the terrible side of great horror that continues to plague the world.
What would have been useful for the world is the survival of traits.
The fittest is subjective, while traits may likely immensely withstand.
After a while, the fittest surviving may be negative, even if certain hurdles are beaten.
The part of evolution that says people want to survive is questioned by religion and capitalism.
A company could be bought, people fired, assets sold, pressure for those left, then the company resold, only to go on for a few years and finding that the company itself can’t survive and then shutdown.
Those initially fired, those who worked under pressure and later gone maybe without compensation may have developed health problems in that time, or have it exacerbated, or lost on family or other problems that may be lasting – for a company that was going under.
Survival of the company – for the capital has exceeded the care for the survival of the staff. Some also work in horror conditions or travel far to work and back with stress, for survival to have capital.
Though some may say to survive is part of it, but oftentimes, to continue on certain rough roles says more capital than more personal.
The last score centuries saw lots of religious conflicts, as well as certain kinds of personal martyrdom for the faith.
But the last few decades – has seen more religious-themed ruin that defies the survival aspect of evolution.
Though it may be questioned that maybe some do it for the group, but who is the fittest or the weakest in the group that activates ruin for self to afflict others? No fittest for all ready to die in that case.
There’s continuous defiance of true survival with many ideologies, as well as the vulnerability of fittest think.
There is a problem of imagination rareness with anti-survival that continues to plague the world.
Imagination is not compatible with capitalism.
There are often intersections, but capitalism endangers imagination. Capitalism is not natural selection.
If the world is run by money, people would develop traits to make money, or have access to it, legally or otherwise, across class, and after a while, imagination would sink.
Useful if it makes money, useless if it doesn’t have compounded problems for the world making solutions sparse.
The talk of that industry or another as successful, are mostly capitalism compliant, those in the intersection have to have something for capitalism to go forward.
To solve major problems, the world needs – rare eclectic imagination. Not money.
Imagination that can see that something is there before it is checked and then found that it is, as what bears progress, while money comes after.
Imagination is the rare rate trait that should be obsessively sought across the world.
Things, towards progress, should be judged on the quality of their imagination – and higher multiples.
But imagination, as the world continues to show, have either disappeared or the availability of it has little chance, as a few got squeezed and left to dry – in what would have benefitted all.
Survival of the trait – imagination would have made the world a better place, not survival of the fittest – in capitalism. And with how a pandemic shattered capitalism, shows it’s itself, not the fittest, or that some country can optimize alone for capitalism, without expected values, and then really excel.
There are so many spots of global attention that bear no imagination.
Traits may make survival meaningful, but with survival just like that, many may be easily convinced of ruin – across ideologies, mild, trendy, extreme, etc.
How does the world solve waste?
One of the early civilizations of the world was Egypt. The children of Israel found themselves there, working unfairly. It is possible that they gleaned part of their imagination from them. They went on, built and developed. Then, again were in Babylon – another major civilization, they also learned.
It is possible that those Israel people, going by their history were able to have biological and cultural evolution with imagination for thousands of years.
It is also possible that for them, whatever they represent, they try to stand out with imagination across time and duty.
Evolution – that – may be more necessary in many cases to understand and study is cultural and biological of a people, and the traits they continue to show.
It is also important to find the survival of traits than to think of the fittest – already corrupted by much.
There are commonalities with humans that are not great traits.
The world will solve wastes and other major problems by propellant imagination.
Some nations with a lot of space but have nothing should see opportunity with waste control, but may depend on their imagination.
Whenever people see wastes, it should be recalled that it is due to a lack of human imagination – and that lack shows that humans can be helpless, personally or as a group.
And with helplessness shows that human limitation is way underrated.
Wastes may end the world faster than any projection.
Once orotund imagination evaporates, there is no fittest.
[2 Kings 3:26, And when the king of Moab saw that the battle was too sore for him, he took with him seven hundred men that drew swords, to break through even unto the king of Edom: but they could not.]
Feature/OPED
What Does Nigeria’s $51bn Reserves Milestone Mean if Most New Foreign Money Can Leave Quickly?
Nigeria’s foreign reserves have climbed to about $51 billion, a decade-plus high, according to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). EBC Financial Group (EBC) notes that this reflects stronger investor confidence, but the second half may show whether it holds, as the build rests on three cyclical drivers: oil earnings, short-term foreign money and a narrowing official-to-street naira gap.
Reserves rose from about $32 billion in April 2024, during a dollar shortage, to about $51 billion now, near the CBN’s target. Much came from two cyclical sources, strong oil earnings and money chasing high-yielding naira assets, so EBC expects the pace to slow or reverse. Fitch Ratings, a major international credit rating agency, expects a marginal decline to about $47 billion by the end of 2026, citing higher spending and external pressures.
David Precious, Senior Market Analyst at EBC Financial Group, said, “Nigeria’s reserve build is real but may not be durable yet, because nearly all of the new money is the kind that can leave quickly. Of the $10.37 billion that came in over the first quarter, the overwhelming majority was short-term portfolio funds rather than long-term investment, so a shift in oil prices, global interest rates or confidence in the naira might pull a large part of it straight back out.”
Most New Money Can Still Leave Quickly
The composition of the foreign inflows explains the caution over how long the build can last. The country attracted $10.37 billion in foreign investment in the first quarter of 2026, up 83.83 per cent year-on-year, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). Of that, $9.86 billion or 95.09 per cent, was portfolio money, largely short-term naira debt such as Treasury bills that investors can sell at the next auction, while foreign direct investment, the long-term kind that builds factories and jobs, was $135.08 million, or 1.30 per cent. Put simply, of each dollar coming in, about 95 cents can leave quickly, and barely one cent stays.
That money supports reserves while it stays. Dollars brought in to buy naira assets add to market supply, letting the CBN hold more reserves and steady the naira. It leaves when conditions change. Nigeria earns most of its export dollars from oil and gas, so lower oil prices mean fewer dollars, and as a member of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), it cannot simply produce more, output capped by quota and reduced by theft and ageing fields. Higher global interest rates draw money toward safer returns abroad, and a weakening naira prompts investors to sell early. When oil fell in 2016 and 2020, foreign investors withdrew and could not convert naira to dollars as supply dried up, leaving the CBN to clear more than $7 billion in trapped obligations into 2024.
The Oil Boost is No Longer Certain
Oil looked like a dependable source of the dollars behind the reserves only months ago. Earlier in 2026, concern over disruption around the Strait of Hormuz lifted crude prices, and stronger receipts flowed in, with crude oil export earnings of $8.11 billion in the first quarter in the CBN’s balance-of-payments data. That support is now easing. The tension has subsided, and Brent traded near $72 on June 29, down about 24 per cent over the month, back to pre-conflict levels. With the price boost gone and output constrained, reserves are more exposed, leaning on non-oil earnings and investor patience rather than oil.
The Naira Still Trades at Two Prices
The naira has traded at two prices, an official rate and a higher parallel-market rate, and closing that gap into one trusted price is what many investors might watch most. Before committing funds, they may want assurance they can convert naira to dollars at a fair rate when they exit, and a wide gap revives the fear of being trapped that lingers from earlier shortages. The gap has narrowed to roughly N20 to N30, with the CBN’s official rate near N1,380 per dollar on June 26 against parallel-market quotes around N1,400. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) 2026 Article IV review urged Nigeria to depend less on this fast-moving portfolio money and to keep phasing out its multiple exchange-rate practices. The CBN’s Foreign Exchange Manual, in force from 1 June, is intended to make the market clearer, though such rules build confidence only once investors can freely trade dollars at the posted rate.
What could Make the Build Durable
A few signs that may show the build turning durable include a smaller gap between the official and street naira rates, more long-term foreign investment, and steadier oil earnings. A gap that stays small, now roughly N20 to N30, may mean investors trust the official rate and no longer need the street market. A clear rise in foreign direct investment, only $135 million last quarter against $9.86 billion of short-term money, might mean lasting capital is replacing funds that can leave at the next auction. Oil earnings that hold up, rather than sliding from the low $70s, should help keep reserves steady, since oil and gas bring in most of Nigeria’s export dollars.
“Reserves built on money chasing high yields can fall as fast as they rose, as they did after the last two oil shocks, when investors left, and the CBN spent years clearing a foreign-exchange backlog,” Precious added. “What holds through a downturn is slower money, direct investment, steady oil and non-oil export earnings and one credible naira rate, and that is the shift Nigeria has yet to make.”
By Olajumoke Bello
Across Nigeria, small and medium enterprises remain the backbone of economic activity. They drive trade, create jobs, and sustain millions of livelihoods. Yet, despite their importance, many SMEs continue to operate below their full potential due to persistent structural challenges.
Access to finance remains one of the most cited constraints. However, the issue today goes beyond the availability of capital. Many businesses struggle with financial readiness, weak documentation, and limited understanding of what lenders require. This often leads to missed opportunities, even when funding options exist.
At the same time, SMEs face gaps in market access and visibility. Business owners operate in highly localised environments, with limited exposure to broader networks that can unlock partnerships, new markets, and growth opportunities. This isolation can constrain scalability and reduce long-term competitiveness.
Equally important is the capability gap. Many entrepreneurs grow through resilience and experience but lack structured knowledge on critical areas such as financial management, export readiness, and digital adoption. Without this, even well-capitalised businesses can struggle to sustain growth.
These challenges point to a clear need for a more practical and integrated approach to SME support. It is no longer sufficient to offer standalone solutions. SMEs require ecosystems that combine knowledge, access, and direct engagement in ways that reflect how they actually operate.
A key shift is the move from centralised interventions to localised engagement. SMEs are deeply influenced by their immediate environments, whether markets, industrial clusters, or trade corridors. Solutions must therefore be brought closer to where these businesses function, allowing for more relevant support and stronger relationships.
Another important shift is from awareness to action. Business owners do not only need information; they need insights that they can apply immediately. This includes understanding how to structure their finances, how to access trade opportunities, and how to connect with the right partners to scale their operations.
There is also a growing need for continuity. Many SME-focused initiatives deliver strong initial impact but lack follow-through. For support to be effective, it must extend beyond one-off engagements into sustained relationships, with clear pathways for onboarding, advisory, and growth.
For financial institutions, this presents both responsibility and an opportunity. Supporting SMEs now requires moving beyond transactional banking to deeper partnership models. It requires understanding businesses at a granular level and co-creating solutions that evolve with their needs.
At Stanbic IBTC, this perspective continues to shape our approach to SME development. Our focus is on delivering practical support that translates into real business outcomes, helping enterprises grow, compete, and contribute more meaningfully to the economy.
As part of this commitment, we are extending our SME engagement to the regions through the Nigeria Business Summit Regional Tour. The tour will take structured, on-ground activations into key commercial hubs, where SMEs can access funding guidance, trade insights, advisory support, and direct engagement with financial experts.
The regional tour will take place across five strategic locations, bringing these solutions closer to business owners in Aba, Onitsha, Ibadan and Kano.
This approach reflects an important principle. When support moves closer to businesses and when solutions are delivered in ways that are practical and continuous, SMEs are better positioned to grow sustainably. In turn, this strengthens not only individual enterprises but the broader economy.
Olajumoke Bello is the Head of Enterprise Banking at Stanbic IBTC Bank
By Winston Osuchukwu
The average Nigerian borrower is widely considered high-risk – a claim repeated in credit committees, priced into retail loans, and largely treated as settled fact. Every credit market accepts that an individual loan may not be repaid; this is ordinary, priced risk. The high-risk claim, however, is applied to whole segments – the informal trader, the gig economy earner whose income is steady but split across several accounts, the remote worker paid by an overseas client into a fintech FX wallet. What the assessment establishes is not whether they are likely to repay, but how they fit into an arbitrary segment. Having spent years building decisioning systems for this market, my thesis is a specific one: “high-risk” does not mean “no credit” – it simply requires that the lender embrace alternative datasets to price the risk appropriately.
This is not a criticism of the institutions that built their frameworks around collateral and documentation; those were rational responses to the tools available at the time. When data is scarce, prudence means defaulting to the status quo. The limitation is not that this approach is wrong, but that it leaves a blind spot – excluding fundamentally sound borrowers whose economic lives simply are not captured on the bank’s ledger. A market trader who has moved consistent, growing volumes of cash through mobile money for three years is not, in any meaningful sense, unknowable. Their financial behaviour is observable and patterned; it simply occurs outside the traditional banking system, rendering it invisible to conventional underwriting.
This is the gap technology is now positioned to close – not by replacing institutional judgment, but by augmenting it. When AI-driven analysis is applied rigorously to the financial behaviour these borrowers generate, a far more complete picture of their repayment ability emerges – and a meaningful share presents a risk profile that compares favourably with segments the traditional system has long considered safe. The “high-risk” label, applied broadly to an entire category of borrower, was never a risk pricing tool so much as the limit of what the available tools could see.
For banks, this is the opportunity to extend capital with confidence beyond the borrowers who fit their stringent criteria. Nigerian banks are highly liquid; the constraint on credit growth has rarely been capital, but the ability to assess and price the borrowers who sit outside the traditional file. Close that gap, and the whole ecosystem strengthens: banks grow their loan books into segments they have long wanted to serve, and the real economy gets the capital it needs to expand.
This is precisely what we focus on at Mathesis Analytics: building AI-powered credit decisioning that gives lenders a fuller, more defensible picture of the individuals long excluded as high-risk when they were simply misjudged. The Nigerian credit gap has never been a non-lendable population problem, but one of incomplete visibility. By unifying varied data sources and partnering with the institutions that hold the capital and scale to move the market, we translate out-of-ecosystem behaviour into reliable, bank-grade risk scores. Closing this gap is one of the clearest, highest-leverage opportunities in Nigerian financial services today.
Winston Osuchukwu is the founder & CEO of Mathesis Analytics
