General
Explainer: Why Nigeria’s Unemployment Figures Crashed to 4.1% from 33.3%
By Adedapo Adesanya
On Thursday, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), in a report titled Nigeria Labour Force Statistics Report Q4 2022 & Q1 2023, said Nigeria’s unemployment rate dropped to 4.1 per cent in the first quarter of 2023 from 5.3 per cent in the fourth of 2022.
This may have come as a shock to many, but it was expected as the NBS on April 20, 2023, made adjustments to how the figures will be calculated moving forward. The NBS adopted global standards as its new method and this crashed the rate from a high of 33.3 per cent released in 2020.
What is the new methodology?
In line with standards introduced by the International Labour Organisation (ILO), an employed person is defined as anyone working at least one hour a week, unlike the old methodology where you had to work at least 20 hours a week to be considered employed.
The new methodology introduced other fresh benchmarks as well. The sample size was widened to 34,250 as against 33,000. Also, the data will be gathered weekly as against quarterly in the previous method.
Other criteria include replacing the 13th ICLS resolution with the adoption of the 19th ICLS resolution, which introduces a new classification called forms of work ranging from own-use production work, employment work, unpaid trainee work, volunteer work, and other mandatory productive activities unpaid to third parties. The categories are mutually exclusive, but persons can work simultaneously on more than one of them.
People who were willing and available to work between 1-39 hours also now fall under underemployment, while before it was those who worked between 20 hours and 39 hours, and unemployment covers individuals who worked 0 hours even if they were available to work while before it was anyone who worked below 20 hours.
Also, before, it only placed people who worked between 15 and 64 years as the working population, but now it is anyone between 15 years and above. This means that aged people who work are brought into the frat.
This new method adjusted the sample population, and this restructured the numbers to 4.1 per cent.
According to the numbers:
With this new structure, about three-quarters of working-age Nigerians were employed – 73.6 per cent in Q4 2022 and 76.7 per cent in Q1 2023. This shows that most people were engaged in some jobs for at least one hour in a week for pay or profit.
About one-third (36.4 per cent in Q4 2022 and 33.2 per cent in Q1 2023) of employed persons worked less than 40 hours per week in both quarters. This was most common among women, individuals with lower levels of education, young people, and those living in rural areas.
The underemployment rate, which is a share of employed people working less than 40 hours per week and declaring themselves willing and available to work more, was 13.7 per cent in Q4 2022 and 12.2 per cent in Q1 2023.
It added that most Nigerians operate their own businesses or engage in farming activities.
“Unemployment stood at 5.3 per cent in Q4 2022 and 4.1 per cent in Q1 2023. This aligns with the rates in other developing countries where work, even if only for a few hours and in low-productivity jobs, is essential to make ends meet, particularly in the absence of any social protection for the unemployed.
“22.3 per cent of the working age population were out of the labour force in Q4 2022, while it was 20.1 per cent in Q1, 2023.
“The rate of informal employment among the employed Nigerians was 93.5% in Q4 2022 and 92.6% in Q1 2023.”
An in-depth analysis of this new methodology and questions about whether it adequately examines the Nigerian situation were raised in this Stears article.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Nigeria–China Strategic Partnership (NCSP) recently hosted a high-level delegation from Newryton International Industrial Development Company Limited, a leading Chinese investment and industrial development consortium, to advance discussions on deepening bilateral trade, industrial cooperation, and development financing between both countries.
The Newryton delegation, led by Mr David Chen, Assistant Secretary-General of the China Hainan Investment Council, had earlier engaged with the Nigerian Association of Commerce, Industry, Mines and Agriculture (NACCIMA). They were accompanied to the NCSP by Mr Joe Onyuike, Vice-Chairman of NACCIMA’s Agriculture and Livestock Trade Group, who conveyed NACCIMA’s support for the delegation’s engagements.
Discussions centered on the establishment of a Nigeria–China Trade and Investment Platform, including a proposed Promotion Centre in China to support Nigerian products, investors, and state governments.
The consortium also presented opportunities within Hainan Province’s Free Trade Port (FTP), which offers preferential policies that Nigerian businesses can leverage to expand exports and attract new investments.
In his address on behalf of Newryton, Mr Pong outlined plans to collaborate with NCSP in accessing FOCAC-supported financing for strategic investments in agriculture, energy, mining, solid minerals processing, and related sectors. The delegation identified aquaculture as a key area of interest and referenced the forthcoming Global Aquaculture Conference in Hainan Province, encouraging Nigerian stakeholders to participate.
They also expressed readiness to strengthen cooperation in vocational training and employment under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
Welcoming the delegation on behalf of the Director-General, Martins Olajide, NCSP’s Head of Internal Operations, reaffirmed the organisation’s commitment to fostering mutually beneficial partnerships.
He highlighted NCSP’s strong interest in the proposed Nigeria–China Trade and Investment Platform and the development of the Nigerian Oil Palm Industrial Park as a flagship demonstration project.
Also speaking at the meeting, Ms Judy Melifonwu, NCSP’s Head of International Relations, underscored the opportunities presented by China’s zero-tariff policy and the forthcoming NAQS–GACC protocol on the export of Nigerian aquaculture products. She noted that these frameworks would significantly enhance Nigeria’s competitiveness in emerging global markets.
Both parties expressed commitment to advancing discussions toward a structured cooperation framework covering all priority areas.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The United Kingdom–Nigeria Infrastructure Advisory Facility (UKNIAF), established in 2019 as part of a 16-year legacy of UK-funded infrastructure support to Nigeria, convened over 100 senior stakeholders on Tuesday, December 2, to review its progress and formally close out its current phase of operations.
The event brought together representatives from federal and state governments, development partners, development finance institutions, and the private sector to reflect on UKNIAF’s work across the power, infrastructure finance, and roads sectors. Discussions focused on institutional reforms, capacity development, and the sustainability of tools and processes introduced over the past six years.
Since inception, UKNIAF has delivered targeted technical assistance designed to embed evidence-based reforms, data-driven decision-making, and improved institutional performance. Its interventions have mobilised significant financing, strengthened regulatory and planning systems, and enhanced investor readiness across multiple infrastructure markets.
In the power sector, participants highlighted landmark achievements including the development of Nigeria’s first Integrated Resource Plan, which outlines a least-cost and low-carbon pathway for expanding electricity supply. UKNIAF also supported the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) in building advanced real-time data capabilities for tariff monitoring, grid management, and outage tracking. The programme enabled pioneering states to establish their own electricity markets following constitutional reforms.
In infrastructure finance, UKNIAF was recognised for strengthening project preparation systems and enabling access to capital. Notable accomplishments include supporting the mobilisation of $75 million from the African Development Bank to the Special Agro-Industrial Processing Zone (SAPZ) programme in two states, and accelerating mini-grid and solar deployment through improved technical standards at the Rural Electrification Agency (REA).
UKNIAF also designed a national project preparation facility, for which N21 billion was allocated in both the 2024 and 2025 budgets to build a pipeline of bankable projects.
Speaking on this, Mr Frank Edozie, UKNIAF Team Lead, described the programme’s close-out as a “handover for sustained delivery,” emphasising that strengthened institutions now hold tools that make Nigeria’s infrastructure landscape more transparent, climate-smart, and investor-ready.
On his part, the Minister of Power, Mr Adebayo Adelabu, commended the programme, noting that its technical assistance and advisory services had helped lay the foundation for a sustainable and inclusive electricity supply industry.
Mrs Cynthia Rowe, Head of Development Corporation at the UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) in Nigeria, praised the partnership, highlighting achievements ranging from state-level electricity market reforms to unlocking major financing and designing Nigeria’s Climate Change Fund.
Enugu State Secretary to the State Government, Professor Chidiebere Onyia, underscored the lasting influence of the programme, stating that UKNIAF’s impact continues through the expertise and leadership transferred to national and sub-national institutions.
The close-out event reaffirmed stakeholders’ commitment to sustaining tools, reforms, and knowledge products developed under UKNIAF, while strengthening collaboration among public, private, and development actors in the infrastructure ecosystem.
Participants included federal and state agencies such as the Nigeria Governors’ Forum, Federal Ministry of Power, Ministry of Finance, NERC, REA, and the Transmission Company of Nigeria, alongside development partners including the African Development Bank, World Bank, and IFC, as well as private sector and civil society stakeholders.
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
The gantry price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), otherwise known as petrol, has been slashed by the Dangote Petroleum Refinery.
The Lagos-based oil facility brought down the ex-depot price of the petroleum product by 15.58 per cent or N129 per litre to N828 per litre.
Though the company had yet to release an official statement on this development, real-time market data on Petroleumprice.ng on Friday showed the new price.
Punch reports that data from the platform also showed fresh reductions across several private depots following the refinery’s latest review.
Sigmund Depot cut its ex-depot price by N4 to N824 per litre, Bulk Strategic dropped its price by N3, and TechnoOil slashed its by N15.
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