Technology
FX-Linked Costs to Pressure Earnings of MTN, Airtel, Others
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
The present foreign exchange (forex) crisis in Nigeria will pose a huge threat to the 2020 earnings of players in the nation’s telecommunications sector, the Head of Equity Research at FBNQuest, Mr Tunde Abidoye, has projected.
In a research note made available to Business Post, he said though now more than ever, the industry was set to take a leading role in the government’s effort to diversify the economy, the FX issue could truncate this.
It was stated that through consistent significant investments by the mobile networks, the sector’s contribution to GDP has risen steadily from about 7.7 per cent in 2012 to 10.9 per cent in Q1 2020, now larger than that of the oil sector (9.5 per cent Q1 2020 oil GDP).
With respect to broadband, studies conducted by the International Telecommunications Union (ITU) indicate that a 10 per cent increase in broadband penetration is likely to translate to increases of 2.0 per cent and 1.8 per cent in GDP for low-income and middle-income countries.
The targets (of 90 per cent broadband coverage at speeds of 10Mbps-25Mbps) stated in the national broadband plan 2020 is ambitious and audacious.
“Notwithstanding, we believe they are achievable. The plan’s success will depend on the right mix of policy implementation, private sector-led infrastructure investment, and government incentives. Specifically, impediments to right-of-way access and cost must be removed,” the note said.
In contrast to other sectors that were hit hard by the economic outcomes of the COVID-19 pandemic, the sector was one of the few that recorded growth in Q1.
Its essential role in easing the lockdown through the provision of digital tools for home working and social distancing resulted in a surge in demand for telecom services during the quarter.
In Q1, MTN Nigeria (MTNN) and Airtel Nigeria (not covered) both delivered strong revenue growth of 17 per cent y/y and 27 per cent y/y respectively, mainly driven by stellar growth in data revenue – which were up by more than 50 per cent for both firms.
The solid performance was carried on into Q2 on the back of strong data demand during the lockdown, with solid revenue growth of 17 per cent y/y (data 40 per cent y/y), Airtel’s Q1 2021 (end-June 2020) results which were recently published, providing positive read-across for the broad sector.
“Due to FX liquidity pressures, we expect a rise in FX-linked costs to exert downward pressure on the earnings of telecom operators,” it noted.
Recently, MTNN disclosed that the NAFEX rate of N385/$1 will now be applied to dollar-linked tower costs (vs. CBN’s official rate of N360 previously). The rate was only recently reviewed to N360/$1 in April (from N307 previously).
“However, we believe that the revenue growth from the surge in data traffic will more than offset the rise in costs.
“Regardless, our estimates are conservative. For MTNN, we forecast 2020 revenue and PBT growth of 13 per cent y/y and 6 per cent y/y respectively,” FBNQuest said.
The Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) takes the quality of service (QoS) very seriously. As such, on a monthly basis, it measures the operators on four key QoS performance indicators namely; (1) the call setup success rate (CSSR), (2) dropped call rate (DCR), (3) the standalone dedicated control channel congestion (SDCCH), (4) the traffic control channel congestion rate (TCCH). The most recent disclosure (October 2019) from the NCC shows that MTNN and Airtel were within the required threshold for all the KPIs, it added.
It was stated that an independent survey on the service quality of GSM operators conducted by REACH Technologies, an indigenous fintech firm, corroborates the results of NCC’s monthly QoS assessment.
The random survey draws a conclusion from a sample size of 133 respondents residing in Nigeria’s urban region. Out of a maximum score of five points, MTNN scored the highest number of points – 2.3 points – on a weighted average basis. Airtel was the next best in terms of QoS with a score of 1.
About 60 per cent of the 133 respondents that were randomly polled subscribe to the MTNN network. This result is important because it underscores MTNN’s larger wallet share of urban subscribers.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Artificial Intelligence (AI) company, OpenAI, on Monday announced that it closed one of the largest private funding rounds in history to boost AI research.
According to a blog post on the company’s website, OpenAI raised $40 billion in a round that values the company at $300 billion.
Japan’s SoftBank led the round, with other participants including Microsoft, Coatue, Altimeter, and Thrive, all of which are earlier backers in the outfit.
OpenAI said it plans to use the fresh capital to “push the frontiers of AI research even further” and scale its compute infrastructure, according to the blog post.
“[This new capital] enables us to push the frontiers of AI research even further, scale our compute infrastructure, and deliver increasingly powerful tools for the 500 million people who use ChatGPT every week,” OpenAI wrote in the blog post.
“We’re excited to be working in partnership with SoftBank Group — few companies understand how to scale transformative technology like they do.”
About $18 billion of the funding is expected to be used for OpenAI’s commitment to Stargate.
Recall that the joint venture between SoftBank, OpenAI and Oracle was announced by President Donald Trump in January.
The initial funding will be $10 billion, followed by the remaining $30 billion by the end of 2025, the person said. But the round comes with a caveat.
SoftBank said in an updated disclosure that its total investment could be slashed to as low as $20 billion if OpenAI doesn’t restructure into a for-profit entity by December 31.
This come amid pressure on OpenAI to pull off the for-profit conversion, a plan that will need the blessing of Microsoft and the California Attorney General, and has been challenged in court by Mr Elon Musk, who was one of the co-founders of OpenAI in 2015, when it was started as a non-profit research lab.
The company’s current and unusual hybrid structure includes a capped-profit limited partnership created in 2019. The original nonprofit is the controlling shareholder and would be spun out as an independent entity if the company can restructure.
OpenAI’s venture backers have received convertible notes that would turn into equity.
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
Stakeholders in the telecommunications sector in Nigeria have resolved to establish a working group dedicated to addressing key industry challenges, including the vandalization and theft of infrastructure, arbitrary shutdown of base stations, fibre cuts due to road construction and the denial of access by unauthorized individuals by leveraging technology for real-time monitoring and protection, strengthening security measures around telecommunication sites and collaborating more with the security and regulatory agencies to mitigate these challenges.
This followed extensive deliberations at an event organised by IHS Nigeria, part of the IHS Holding Limited, to develop a multi-stakeholder action plan for the protection of Critical National Information Infrastructure (CNII) assets in Lagos State.
The stakeholders underscored the need to prioritize deterrence and prevention of these incidents and highlighted the importance of public awareness campaigns to sensitize the host communities and public of the need to protect telecommunications infrastructure in their localities.
“The protection of Critical National Information Infrastructure (CNII) has been a critical concern for all industry stakeholders.
“We are experiencing daily losses of assets, which significantly impact on the quality of service delivered to subscribers.
“Addressing these issues is paramount to sustaining Nigeria’s digital ecosystem and meeting regulatory expectations,” the Senior Vice President and Chief Corporate Services Officer of HIS Nigeria, Mr Dapo Otunla, stated.
Recognizing the importance of communications infrastructure as the backbone of national security, economic growth and social cohesion, the stakeholders at the meeting convened under the umbrella of the Association of Licensed Telecoms Operators of Nigeria (ALTON) agreed on the urgent need for collaborative solutions to ensure the protection of these vital assets.
The meeting was attended by senior representatives from the telecommunications stakeholder groups and regulatory bodies, including the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC), the Association of Licensed Telecoms Operators of Nigeria (ALTON), Association of Telecommunications Companies of Nigeria (ATCON) and the Lagos State Infrastructure Maintenance and Regulatory Agency (LASIMRA).
Also in attendance were representatives from the Mobile Network Operators (MNOs), and InfraCos as well as the Nigeria Security and Civil Defence Corps (NSCDC), the security agency tasked with the protection of Critical National Infrastructure across the country.
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
Two of the major telecommunications companies in Africa, Airtel Africa Plc and MTN Group, have entered into agreements to share network infrastructure in Uganda and Nigeria.
The idea behind this is to cost operating costs and improve network coverage for quality mobile services to millions of customers, particularly in remote areas.
However, this would be carried out in compliance with local regulatory and statutory requirements.
The initiative is part of a growing global trend toward network sharing. By collaborating, telecoms operators can explore innovative and pro-competitive solutions to improve service quality while managing costs more effectively.
The sharing of infrastructure has the potential to enable the delivery of world-class, reliable mobile services to more and more customers across Africa.
Already, MTN and Airtel Africa are exploring various opportunities in other markets, including Congo-Brazzaville, Rwanda and Zambia.
Among the types of agreements considered are RAN sharing and those aimed at establishing commercial and technical agreements for fibre infrastructure sharing and, if necessary, the construction of fibre networks.
“As we compete fiercely in the market on the strength of our brand, services and our offerings we are building common infrastructure, within the permissible regulatory framework, to provide a more robust and extensive digital highway to drive digital and financial inclusion at the same time avoiding duplication of expensive infrastructure to drive operational efficiencies and benefits for our customers,” the chief executive of Airtel Africa, Mr Sunil Taldar, said.
His counterpart at MTN Group, Mr Ralph Mupita, while commenting on the development, said, “As MTN, we are driven by the vision of delivering digital solutions that drive Africa’s progress.
“We continue to see strong structural demand for digital and financial services across our markets. To meet this demand, we continue to invest in coverage and capacity to ensure high-quality connectivity for our customers.
“That said, there are opportunities within regulatory frameworks for sharing resources to drive higher efficiencies and improve returns.”
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