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FX-Linked Costs to Pressure Earnings of MTN, Airtel, Others

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By Modupe Gbadeyanka

The present foreign exchange (forex) crisis in Nigeria will pose a huge threat to the 2020 earnings of players in the nation’s telecommunications sector, the Head of Equity Research at FBNQuest, Mr Tunde Abidoye, has projected.

In a research note made available to Business Post, he said though now more than ever, the industry was set to take a leading role in the government’s effort to diversify the economy, the FX issue could truncate this.

It was stated that through consistent significant investments by the mobile networks, the sector’s contribution to GDP has risen steadily from about 7.7 per cent in 2012 to 10.9 per cent in Q1 2020, now larger than that of the oil sector (9.5 per cent Q1 2020 oil GDP).

With respect to broadband, studies conducted by the International Telecommunications Union (ITU) indicate that a 10 per cent increase in broadband penetration is likely to translate to increases of 2.0 per cent and 1.8 per cent in GDP for low-income and middle-income countries.

The targets (of 90 per cent broadband coverage at speeds of 10Mbps-25Mbps) stated in the national broadband plan 2020 is ambitious and audacious.

“Notwithstanding, we believe they are achievable. The plan’s success will depend on the right mix of policy implementation, private sector-led infrastructure investment, and government incentives. Specifically, impediments to right-of-way access and cost must be removed,” the note said.

In contrast to other sectors that were hit hard by the economic outcomes of the COVID-19 pandemic, the sector was one of the few that recorded growth in Q1.

Its essential role in easing the lockdown through the provision of digital tools for home working and social distancing resulted in a surge in demand for telecom services during the quarter.

In Q1, MTN Nigeria (MTNN) and Airtel Nigeria (not covered) both delivered strong revenue growth of 17 per cent y/y and 27 per cent y/y respectively, mainly driven by stellar growth in data revenue – which were up by more than 50 per cent for both firms.

The solid performance was carried on into Q2 on the back of strong data demand during the lockdown, with solid revenue growth of 17 per cent y/y (data 40 per cent y/y), Airtel’s Q1 2021 (end-June 2020) results which were recently published, providing positive read-across for the broad sector.

“Due to FX liquidity pressures, we expect a rise in FX-linked costs to exert downward pressure on the earnings of telecom operators,” it noted.

Recently, MTNN disclosed that the NAFEX rate of N385/$1 will now be applied to dollar-linked tower costs (vs. CBN’s official rate of N360 previously). The rate was only recently reviewed to N360/$1 in April (from N307 previously).

“However, we believe that the revenue growth from the surge in data traffic will more than offset the rise in costs.

“Regardless, our estimates are conservative. For MTNN, we forecast 2020 revenue and PBT growth of 13 per cent y/y and 6 per cent y/y respectively,” FBNQuest said.

The Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) takes the quality of service (QoS) very seriously. As such, on a monthly basis, it measures the operators on four key QoS performance indicators namely; (1) the call setup success rate (CSSR), (2) dropped call rate (DCR), (3) the standalone dedicated control channel congestion (SDCCH), (4) the traffic control channel congestion rate (TCCH). The most recent disclosure (October 2019) from the NCC shows that MTNN and Airtel were within the required threshold for all the KPIs, it added.

It was stated that an independent survey on the service quality of GSM operators conducted by REACH Technologies, an indigenous fintech firm, corroborates the results of NCC’s monthly QoS assessment.

The random survey draws a conclusion from a sample size of 133 respondents residing in Nigeria’s urban region. Out of a maximum score of five points, MTNN scored the highest number of points – 2.3 points – on a weighted average basis. Airtel was the next best in terms of QoS with a score of 1.

About 60 per cent of the 133 respondents that were randomly polled subscribe to the MTNN network. This result is important because it underscores MTNN’s larger wallet share of urban subscribers.

Modupe Gbadeyanka is a fast-rising journalist with Business Post Nigeria. Her passion for journalism is amazing. She is willing to learn more with a view to becoming one of the best pen-pushers in Nigeria. Her role models are the duo of CNN's Richard Quest and Christiane Amanpour.

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FG to Establish National Cybersecurity Council to Tackle Digital Threats

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MultiChoice x Winning against piracy

By Adedapo Adesanya

The federal government has announced plans to establish a national cybersecurity coordination council to strengthen Nigeria’s response to rising digital threats.

In a statement, the Federal Ministry of Communications, Innovation and Digital Economy said the council will serve as a multi-stakeholder platform to improve coordination, intelligence sharing, and collaboration between public and private institutions.

The initiative, championed by the Minister of Communications, Mr Bosun Tijani, aims to enhance Nigeria’s ability to respond to increasingly sophisticated cyber incidents affecting both private companies and public systems.

“The proposed council is envisioned as a non-statutory, multi-stakeholder coordination platform, designed to convene key actors and strengthen partnerships that support efficient coordination, trusted information sharing, and sustained cooperation among institutions responsible for advancing Nigeria’s cybersecurity posture,” the ministry said.

The council will bring together chief information security officers, cybersecurity experts, technology firms, law enforcement agencies, and relevant government institutions.

It will also provide advisory support to the federal government on strategies and frameworks needed to improve national cyber resilience.

“The approach reflects the government’s recognition that modern cyber threats demand collective defence models, trusted threat intelligence sharing, and multi-stakeholder coordination,” the ministry added.

The move follows recent cyber incidents that disrupted operations and highlighted the “increasingly coordinated and sophisticated nature of cyber threats,” signalling the urgent need for stronger national cybersecurity frameworks.

This development comes amid the rising frequency and complexity of cybercrimes, which have made cybersecurity a vital tool that countries must focus on.

Special policies around data breaches, ransomware attacks, and third-party liabilities have come to the fore. While cybersecurity has been historically underutilised in Nigeria, its critical role in mitigating the financial fallout of cybercrimes and threats has taken a new dimension with the adoption of Artificial Intelligence (AI).

Countries are leveraging AI tools to enhance threat detection, automate incident response, and analyse patterns to identify risks early. These AI-driven solutions enable quick and effective responses, improving resilience by detecting anomalies, predicting potential attacks, and mitigating threats before they escalate.

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Airtel Subscriber Base Crosses 650 million, Now World’s Second-Largest Telco

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Bharti Airtel

By Modupe Gbadeyanka

Bharti Airtel has crossed 650 million mobile subscribers worldwide to emerge as the world’s second-largest telecommunications firm.

The Indian company has operations in several countries, including Nigeria, where it has continued to scale infrastructure at a pace unmatched in its recent history.

Over the past three years, the telco has increased its national site count from just above 13,000 to nearly 17,200 sites, including more than 1,560 added in the last 12 months.

This expansion deepens capacity in high-demand corridors and extends high-speed coverage to previously underserved regions.

The latest industry data from the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) underscores the significance of this growth. As of December 2025, Nigeria recorded 145,141 base stations across 2G, 3G, 4G and 5G layers.

Of this national infrastructure, Airtel accounts for 46,918 base-station layers, reflecting its substantial contribution to the country’s radio access network and its push to absorb rising data consumption.

Nearly 99 per cent of Airtel Nigeria’s sites are now 4G-enabled, positioning the operator as one of the few with a near-ubiquitous high-speed broadband footprint. Thousands of sites have been upgraded for capacity in the past year alone, enabling improved speeds and more stable performance during peak usage.

That expansion underpins Nigeria’s rising internet adoption. According to the latest regulator figures, Nigeria’s internet penetration recently climbed above 50 per cent, with Airtel recording among the largest monthly increases in new internet subscribers, driven by network upgrades across states and rural corridors.

Strategic Connectivity and Redundancy

Airtel is also tackling a critical infrastructure challenge for the Nigerian digital economy: reliance on a single international internet gateway. The company is advancing plans for its second submarine cable internet breakout point at Kwa Ibo in Akwa Ibom State, early in the 2Africa cable system rollout, to provide faster and more resilient national connectivity across regions. This significant investment aligns with global best practices in network diversity and redundancy, ensuring a more stable digital experience for consumers and enterprises alike.

Digital Finance at Scale: SmartCash

Airtel’s digital finance arm, SmartCash, has gained traction in Nigeria’s competitive mobile money ecosystem, now serving over 3 million active users. The platform is supported by an expansive agent network and digital services that lower barriers for everyday financial transactions and savings.

Outstanding Human Touch: Retail Reach

Across Nigeria, Airtel’s retail distribution network stands as one of the sector’s most extensive, with approximately 4,000 exclusive outlets bringing services, support, and products closer to customers in small towns, communities, and high-traffic urban hubs. That footprint drives both access and engagement in a market where localised presence remains a competitive differentiator.

As Nigeria’s digital economy continues to evolve, Airtel is committed to sustained innovation — from expanded fibre backbones and advanced mobile broadband to future-ready services that include satellite-enabled solutions and enterprise-grade digital platforms. These efforts help ensure that connectivity, commerce, and creativity thrive across Nigeria and beyond.

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Nigeria to Launch NIGCOMSAT Satellites in 2028, 2029

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NIGCOMSAT Satellites

By Adedapo Adesanya

Nigeria has set 2028 and 2029 as the timeline for the deployment of its new satellites, NIGCOMSAT-2A and 2B, respectively.

The Managing Director of NIGCOMSAT, which is Nigerian Communications Satellite Limited and the premier satellite operator in Nigeria, Mrs Jane Nkechi Egerton-Idehen, disclosed this at the second Nigerian Satellite Week in Abuja on Monday. She noted that the development is expected to boost military intelligence, surveillance, and regional connectivity.

“For 2A and 2B, we have started the process. We have closed the tender and are now back into the financing and implementation stage. 2A is built to come up in 2028, and 2B for 2029.

“When they are up and running, they are expected to provide security within the borders and neighbouring countries. They will support the security agencies because data collection and intelligence in real time is important. Satellites like communication satellites allow that, irrespective of where they are,” she said.

In his remarks, the Minister of Communications and Digital Economy, Mr Bosun Tijani, said the satellites form part of the nation’s strategy to strengthen digital infrastructure.

Mr Tijani explained that the satellites will complement ongoing investments in 90,000 kilometres of fibre-optic cable and nearly 4,000 telecom towers, which are being rolled out nationwide and extended to neighbouring countries, including Cameroon, Niger, Chad, Burkina Faso, and the Republic of Benin.

He stressed that satellite technology is critical for national development, affecting education, agriculture, business, and emergency response.

“The president’s approval of NIGCOMSAT-2A and 2B demonstrates a clear commitment to building the future. These satellites will enhance security, connect remote communities, and extend our fibre-optic network into neighbouring countries,” he said.

“Some of these neighbouring countries pay up to ten times more for internet capacity than Lagos. Extending our fibre network will not only improve connectivity but also enhance border security and regional collaboration.

“Satellite technology affects everything, from how a child in a rural community accesses the internet to how farmers make critical decisions and how businesses operate across distance,” the Minister said.

Also speaking, the Chief of Army Staff (COAS), Lieutenant General Waidi Shaibu, welcomed the development, saying the military will leverage the satellites for operational efficiency.

“The Nigerian Army will continue to use space assets to improve intelligence gathering, surveillance, and operational coordination across all theatres of operation,” he said at the event, represented by Major General Kennedy Osemwegie, Commander of the Nigerian Army Cyber Warfare Command (NACWC).

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