Technology
The Ultimate Online Privacy Guide
By Douglas Crawford
Introduction
Edward Snowden’s NSA spying revelations highlighted just how much we have sacrificed to the gods of technology and convenience something we used to take for granted, and once considered a basic human right – our privacy.
It is just not just the NSA. Governments the world over are racing to introduce legislation that allows to them to monitor and store every email, phone call and Instant Message, every web page visited, webinar software and every VoIP conversation made by every single one of their citizens.
The press has bandied parallels with George Orwell’s dystopian world ruled by an all-seeing Big Brother about a great deal. They are depressingly accurate.
Encryption provides a highly effective way to protect your internet behavior, communications, and data. The main problem with using encryption is that its use flags you up to organizations such as the NSA for closer scrutiny.
Details of the NSA’s data collection rules are here. What it boils down to is that the NSA examines data from US citizens, then discards it if it’s found to be uninteresting. Encrypted data, on the other hand, is stored indefinitely until the NSA can decrypt it.
The NSA can keep all data relating to non-US citizens indefinitely, but practicality suggests that encrypted data gets special attention.
If a lot more people start to use encryption, then encrypted data will stand out less, and surveillance organizations’ job of invading everyone’s privacy will be much harder. Remember – anonymity is not a crime!
How Secure is Encryption?
Following revelations about the scale of the NSA’s deliberate assault on global encryption standards, confidence in encryption has taken a big dent. So let’s examine the current state of play…
Encryption Key Length
Key length is the crudest way of determining how long a cipher will take to break. It is the raw number of ones and zeros used in a cipher. Similarly, the crudest form of attack on a cipher is known as a brute force attack (or exhaustive key search). This involves trying every possible combination to find the correct one.
If anyone is capable of breaking modern encryption ciphers it is the NSA, but to do so is a considerable challenge. For a brute force attack:
- A 128-bit key cipher has 3.4 x10(38) possible keys. Going through each of them would thousands of operations or more to break.
- In 2011 the fastest supercomputer in the word (the Fujitsu K computer located in Kobe, Japan) was capable of an Rmax peak speed of 10.51 petaflops. Based on this figure, it would take Fujitsu K 1.02 x 10(18) (around 1 billion) years to crack a 128-bit AES key by force.
- In 2016 the most powerful supercomputer in the world is the NUDT Tianhe-2 in Guangzhou, China. Almost 3 times as fast as the Fujitsu K, at 33.86 petaflops, it would “only” take it around a third of a billion years to crack a 128-bit AES key. That’s still a long time, and is the figure for breaking just one key.
- A 256-bit key would require 2(128) times more computational power to break than a 128-bit one.
- The number of years required to brute force a 256-bit cipher is 3.31 x 10(56) – which is about 20000….0000 (total 46 zeros) times the age of Universe (13.5 billion or 1.35 x 10(10) years!

128-bit Encryption
Until the Edward Snowden revelations, people assumed that 128-bit encryption was in practice uncrackable through brute force. They believed it would be so for around another 100 years (taking Moore’s Law into account).
In theory, this still holds true. However, the scale of resources that the NSA seems willing to throw at cracking encryption has shaken many experts’ faith in these predictions. Consequently, system administrators the world over are scrambling to upgrade cipher key lengths.
If and when quantum computing becomes available, all bets will be off. Quantum computers will be exponentially more powerful than any existing computer, and will make all current encryption ciphers and suites redundant overnight.
In theory, the development of quantum encryption will counter this problem. However, access to quantum computers will initially be the preserve of the most powerful and wealthy governments and corporations only. It is not in the interests of such organizations to democratize encryption.
For the time being, however, strong encryption is your friend.
Note that the US government uses 256-bit encryption to protect ‘sensitive’ data and 128-bit for ‘routine’ encryption needs.
However, the cipher it uses is AES. As I discuss below, this is not without problems.
Ciphers
Encryption key length refers to the amount of raw numbers involved. Ciphers are the mathematics used to perform the encryption. It is weaknesses in these algorithms, rather than in the key length, that often leads to encryption breaking.
By far the most common ciphers that you will likely encounter are those OpenVPN uses: Blowfish and AES. In addition to this, RSA is used to encrypt and decrypt a cipher’s keys. SHA-1 or SHA-2 are used as hash functions to authenticate the data.
AES is generally considered the most secure cipher for VPN use (and in general). Its adoption by the US government has increased its perceived reliability, and consequently its popularity. However, there is reason to believe this trust may be misplaced.
NIST
The United States National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) developed and/or certified AES, RSA, SHA-1 and SHA-2. NIST works closely with the NSA in the development of its ciphers.
Given the NSA’s systematic efforts to weaken or build backdoors into international encryption standards, there is every reason to question the integrity of NIST algorithms.
NIST has been quick to deny any wrongdoing (“NIST would not deliberately weaken a cryptographic standard”). It has also has invited public participation in a number of upcoming proposed encryption-related standards in a move designed to bolster public confidence.
The New York Times, however, has accused the NSA of introducing undetectable backdoors, or subverting the public development process to weaken the algorithms, thus circumventing NIST-approved encryption standards.
News that a NIST-certified cryptographic standard – the Dual Elliptic Curve algorithm (Dual_EC_DRGB) had been deliberately weakened not just once, but twice, by the NSA destroyed pretty much any existing trust.

That there might be a deliberate backdoor in Dual_EC_DRGB had already been noticed before. In 2006 researchers at the Eindhoven University of Technology in the Netherlands noted that an attack against it was easy enough to launch on ‘an ordinary PC.’ Microsoft engineers also flagged up a suspected backdoor in the algorithm.
Despite these concerns, where NIST leads, industry follows. Microsoft, Cisco, Symantec and RSA all include the algorithm in their products’ cryptographic libraries. This is in large partbecause compliance with NIST standards is a prerequisite to obtaining US government contracts.
NIST-certified cryptographic standards are pretty much ubiquitous worldwide throughout all areas of industry and business that rely on privacy (including the VPN industry). This is all rather chilling.
Perhaps because so much relies on these standards, cryptography experts have been unwilling to face up to the problem.
Perfect Forward Secrecy

One of the revelations in the information provided by Edward Snowden is that “another program, code-named Cheesy Name, was aimed at singling out SSL/TLS encryption keys, known as ‘certificates,’ that might be vulnerable to being cracked by GCHQ supercomputers.”
That these certificates can be “singled out” strongly suggests that 1024-bit RSA encryption (commonly used to protect the certificate keys) is weaker than previously thought. The NSA and GCHQ could therefore decrypt it much more quickly than expected.
In addition to this, the SHA-1 algorithm widely used to authenticate SSL/TLS connections is fundamentally broken. In both cases, the industry is scrambling fix the weaknesses as fast as it can. It is doing this by moving onto RSA-2048+, Diffie-Hellman, or Elliptic Curve Diffie-Hellman (ECDH) key exchanges and SHA-2+ hash authentication.
What these issues (and the 2014 Heartbleed Bug fiasco) clearly highlight is the importance of using perfect forward secrecy (PFS) for all SSL/TLS connections.
This is a system whereby a new and unique (with no additional keys derived from it) private encryption key is generated for each session. For this reason, it is also known as an ephemeral key exchange.
Using PFS, if one SSL key is compromised, this does not matter very much because new keys are generated for each connection. They are also often refreshed during connections. To meaningfully access communications these new keys would also need to be compromised. This makes the task so arduous as to be effectively impossible.
Unfortunately, it is common practice (because it’s easy) for companies to use just one private encryption key. If this key is compromised, then the attacker can access all communications encrypted with it.
OpenVPN and PFS
The most widely used VPN protocol is OpenVPN. It is considered very secure. One of the reasons for this is because it allows the use of ephemeral keys.
Sadly this is not implemented by many VPN providers. Without perfect forward secrecy, OpenVPN connections are not considered secure.
It is also worth mentioning here that the HMAC SHA-1 hashes routinely used to authenticate OpenVPN connections are not a weakness. This is because HMAC SHA-1 is much less vulnerable to collision attacks than standard SHA-1 hashes. Mathematical proof of this is available in this paper.
The Takeaway – So, is Encryption Secure?
To underestimate the NSA’s ambition or ability to compromise all encryption is a mistake. However, encryption remains the best defense we have against it (and others like it).
To the best of anyone’s knowledge, strong ciphers such as AES (despite misgivings about its NIST certification) and OpenVPN (with perfect forward secrecy) remain secure.
As Bruce Schneier, encryption specialist, fellow at Harvard’s Berkman Center for Internet and Society, and privacy advocate famously stated,
“Trust the math. Encryption is your friend. Use it well, and do your best to ensure that nothing can compromise it. That’s how you can remain secure even in the face of the NSA.”
Remember too that the NSA is not the only potential adversary. However, most criminals and even governments have nowhere near the NSA’s ability to circumvent encryption.
The Importance of End-to-end Encryption
End-to-end (e2e) encryption means that you encrypt data on your own device. Only you hold the encryption keys (unless you share them). Without these keys, an adversary will find it extremely difficult to decrypt your data.

Many services and products do not use e2e encryption. Instead they encrypt your data and hold the keys for you. This can be very convenient, as it allows for easy recovery of lost passwords, syncing across devices, and so forth. It does mean, however, that these third parties could be compelled to hand over your encryption keys.
A case in point is Microsoft. It encrypts all emails and files held in OneDrive (formerly SkyDrive), but it also holds the encryption keys. In 2013 it used these to unlock the emails and files of its 250 million worldwide users for inspection by the NSA.
Strongly avoid services that encrypt your data on their servers, rather than you encrypting your own data on your own machine.
HTTPS
Although strong encryption has recently become trendy, websites have been using strong end-to-end encryption for the last 20 years. After all, if websites were not secure, then online shopping or banking wouldn’t be possible.
The encryption protocol used for this is HTTPS, which stands for HTTP Secure (or HTTP over SSL/TLS). It is used for websites that need to secure users’ communications and is the backbone of internet security.
When you visit a non-secure HTTP website, data is transferred unencrypted. This means anyone watching can see everything you do while visiting that site. This includes your transaction details when making payments. It is even possible to alter the data transferred between you and the web server.
With HTTPS, a cryptographic key exchange occurs when you first connect to the website. All subsequent actions on the website are encrypted, and thus hidden from prying eyes. Anyone watching can see that you have visited a certain website, but cannot see which individual pages you read, or any data transferred.
For example, the BestVPN.com website is secured using HTTPS. Unless you are using a VPN while reading this web page, your ISP can see that you have visited www.bestvpn.com, but cannot see that you are reading this particular article. HTTPS uses end-to-end encryption.

It is easy to tell if you visit a website secured by HTTPS – just look for a locked padlock icon to the left of the main URL/search bar.
There are issues relating to HTTPS, but in general it is secure. If it wasn’t, none of the billions of financial transactions and transfers of personal data that happen every day on the internet would be possible. The internet itself (and possibly the world economy!) would collapse overnight.
For a detailed discussion on HTTPS, please see here.
Metadata
An important limitation to encryption is that it does not necessarily protect users from the collection of metadata.
Even if the contents of emails, voice conversations, or web browsing sessions cannot be readily listened in on, knowing when, where, from whom, to whom, and how regularly such communication takes place can tell an adversary a great deal. This is a powerful tool in the wrong hands.
For example, even if you use a securely encrypted messaging service such as WhatsApp, Facebook will still be able to tell who you are messaging, how often you message, how long you usually chat for, and more. With such information, it would be easy to discover that you were having an affair, for example.
Although the NSA does target individual communications, its primary concern is the collection of metadata. As NSA General Counsel Stewart Baker has openly acknowledged,
“Metadata absolutely tells you everything about somebody’s life. If you have enough metadata, you don’t really need content.“
Technologies such as VPNs and Tor can make the collection of metadata very difficult. For example, an ISP cannot collect metadata relating to the browsing history of customers who use a VPN to hide their online activities.
Note, though, that many VPN providers themselves log some metadata. This should be a consideration when choosing a service to protect your privacy.
Please also note that mobile apps typically bypass any VPN that is running on your device, and connect directly to their publishers’ servers. Using a VPN, for example, will not prevent WhatsApp sending metadata to Facebook.
Identify Your Threat Model
When considering how to protect your privacy and stay secure on the internet, carefully consider who or what worries you most. Defending yourself against everything is almost impossible. And any attempt to do so will likely seriously degrade the usability (and your enjoyment) of the internet.
Identifying to yourself that being caught downloading an illicit copy of Game of Thrones is a bigger worry than being targeted by a crack NSA TAO teamfor personalized surveillance is a good start. It will leave you less stressed, with a more useable internet and with more effective defenses against the threats that really matter to you.
Of course, if your name is Edward Snowden, then TAO teams will be part of your threat model…
I will discuss steps you should take to help identify your threat model in an upcoming article on BestVPN.com. In the meantime, this article does a good job of introducing the basics.
Use FOSS Software
The terrifying scale of the NSA’s attack on public cryptography, and its deliberate weakening of common international encryption standards, has demonstrated that no proprietary software can be trusted. Even software specifically designed with security in mind.
The NSA has co-opted or coerced hundreds of technology companies into building backdoors into their programs, or otherwise weakening security in order to allow it access. US and UK companies are particularly suspect, although the reports make it clear that companies across the world have acceded to NSA demands.
The problem with proprietary software is that the NSA can fairly easily approach and convince the sole developers and owners to play ball. In addition to this, their source code is kept secret. This makes it easy to add to or modify the code in dodgy ways without anyone noticing.

The best answer to this problem is to use free open source software (FOSS). Often jointly developed by disparate and otherwise unconnected individuals, the source code is available to everyone to examine and peer-review. This minimizes the chances that someone has tampered with it.
Ideally, this code should also be compatible with other implementations, in orderto minimize the possibility of a backdoor being built in.
It is, of course, possible that NSA agents have infiltrated open source development groups and introduced malicious code without anyone’s knowledge. In addition, the sheer amount of code that many projects involve means that it is often impossible to fully peer-review all of it.
Despite these potential pitfalls, FOSS remains the most reliable and least likely to be tampered with software available. If you truly care about privacy you should try to use it exclusively (up to and including using FOSS operating systems such as Linux).
Steps You Can Take to Improve Your Privacy
With the proviso that nothing is perfect, and if “they” really want to get you “they” probably can, there are steps you can take to improve your privacy.
Pay for Stuff Anonymously
One step to improving your privacy is to pay for things anonymously. When it comes to physical goods delivered to an actual address, this isn’t going to happen. Online services are a different kettle of fish, however.
It is increasingly common to find services that accept payment through Bitcoin and the like. A few, such as VPN service Mullvad, will even accept cash sent anonymously by post.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin is a decentralized and open source virtual currency that operates using peer-to-peer technology (much as BitTorrent and Skype do). The concept is particularly revolutionary and exciting because it does not require a middleman to work (for example a state-controlled bank).
Whether or not Bitcoins represent a good investment opportunity remains hotly debated, and is not within the remit of this guide. It is also completely outside of my area of expertise!
Source: Bestvpn.com
Technology
Fibre Cuts: Expert Blames Road Construction for 60% of Network Outages
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
The chief executive of Dimensions Data Limited, Mr Gbenga Olabiyi, has blamed road construction for 60 per cent of network outages caused by fibre cuts.
Speaking recently at the National Dig-Once Policy Forum, which marked the 8th Policy Implementation Assisted Forum (PIAFo), he drew attention to the gap between the infrastructure Nigeria has and what it can actually deliver if a coordinated framework is adopted.
“Nigeria currently has about 35,000 kilometres of fibre in the ground, yet only 16 per cent of Nigerians are connected to it. Broadband penetration stands at 45 per cent. Lagos alone has a penetration rate of over 70 per cent,” Mr Olabiyi said.
He emphasised that the failure to address the missing fibre link over the years has led to saturation of connectivity in urban centres, while the hinterlands are left either unconnected or poorly served.
At the same programme, convened by Mr Omobayo Azeez, stakeholders in the telecommunications sector called for the adoption of the dig-once policy to lower the costs of fibre deployment, reduce infrastructure damage, improve safety, and shorten rollout timelines.
Quoting the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC), it was noted that of the 50,000 fibre cut incidents recorded in a year, about 30,000, which represents 60 per cent, occurred during road construction and rehabilitation.
Stakeholders thus called for a review of existing road construction and building codes to accommodate the installation of fibre conduits in the original design standard of the infrastructure planning.
“What Dig-Once offers is an opportunity to correct this,” the president of the Association of Telecommunication Companies of Nigeria, Mr Tony Emoekpere, stated.
He added that even operators frequently damage one another’s cables during repeated digging, thus increasing repair costs and service disruptions.
The Deputy Director of Strategic Business Initiatives at ipNX Nigeria Limited, Mr Segun Okuneye, said under the dig-once policy, road contractors should install ducts during construction.
He said the repeated excavation of the road leads to incessant destruction of existing infrastructure and triggers service blackouts with operators bearing additional costs of repair of replacing the fibre.
Also, the chairman of the Association of Licensed Telecom Operators of Nigeria (ALTON), Mr Gbenga Adebayo, said operators should focus not just on digging once but on eliminating unnecessary digging altogether by sharing existing infrastructure and jointly replacing legacy cables.
“Early fibres laid 15 to 20 years ago are now ageing, and the industry needs a plan to replace them without everyone digging the same routes again,” he said.
Technology
How to Level Up Customer Support Automation Today
One of the most powerful ways to modernize a support team is by optimizing support operations with AI automation.
When implemented thoughtfully, automation doesn’t replace human agents—it elevates them.
Less duplicated work‚ resolving issues faster‚ and providing a consistent experience on different channels․
Since there are many content formats in the current content environment‚ the most effective formats for guidelines are those that are structured‚ practical‚ and focused on “what you can actually do,”‚ as opposed to abstract theory․
This article follows that same intent‚ and seeks to document the journey to better customer support automation‚ without mentioning brand names or links․
1. Automate first‑contact triage with smart workflows
One of the common entry points into support automation is to respond to end customers’ requests as soon as they are received‚ rather than making them wait for a human agent to pick up a chat channel or email, as is customary․
This is done through clever workflows that ask a few questions‚ qualify and classify the issue, and recommend a next best action․
This can mean transferring to a human agent‚ directing the user to a specific help article‚ or beginning a guided self-service flow right within the chat․
It reduces the friction to get started and shows customers they are being heard from the first message․
It reduces the burden on agents because they only see tickets that require human judgement․
In the best implementations‚ the bot feels like a helpful assistant and not a hindrance to the customer reaching a resolution․
2. Route tickets with intelligence, not just speed
Responsiveness is still important‚ but smart routing is what takes automation from simple ticketing to responsive‚ scalable support․
Instead of shuffling tickets to the agent available‚ the system can route based on the subject‚ difficulty‚ language‚ or even expected resolution․
This way, billing problems are routed to billing experts‚ complaints about product setup are routed to technical experts‚ and routine status inquiries are routed to agents who can handle volume․
For example‚ clever routing could send high-touch or high-stakes tickets to a more senior agent or tickets that ask the same question repeatedly to agents specialized in a specific workflow․
It’s this kind of intelligence that allows teams to be faster and happier when they are thinking of routing-based automation beyond simple round robin distribution․
3. Turn FAQs into self‑service journeys
Another area the current content focuses on is changing the format of FAQs into more interactive self-service experiences that guide customers through flows‚ checklists, or conversational search‚ as opposed to serving them a long list of links‚ making it easier to discover a solution․
This reduces the need to create tickets in the first instance and reduces the support workload by focusing on more high-value ‚ complex interactions․
An organized help center can examine common patterns in failed searches and proactively suggest the most appropriate articles or troubleshooting steps․
It can also serve as the backbone for mini-chatbots that can guide the user through setup‚ configuration‚ or troubleshooting paths without opening a ticket․
When teams invest in AI automation to better support their operation‚ a self-service capability is often one of the first investments made․
4. Automate routine follow‑ups and escalations
In modern ticketing systems‚ the entire life cycle of the ticket from its creation can be automated․
Instead of relying on agents to remember to do a status update‚ a satisfaction survey‚ or an escalation‚ rules can be set up to automate these processes․
For example‚ if a ticket has been placed in the “pending customer reply” state for a specified period of time‚ a notification to the customer can be sent out to remind them‚ or if a complaint has not been resolved within any specified period‚ the ticket can be escalated to a manager․
The result is processes that are always followed‚ never missed SLAs‚ less manual work‚ and agents are freed up from the tedious tracking of time and sending reminders to focus on resolving problems․
A mix of automation and human intervention is often the optimal solution for a better experience for customers and agents alike․
5. Use AI to draft and summarize responses
AI-assisted writing has become the norm to scale support teams‚ with the tool helping staff draft an initial response‚ summarize long email threads‚ and suggest templated replies which agents personalize․
It is especially useful in high-volume or multi-language support environments‚ where replies to common questions must be timely and consistent․
This type of automation doesn’t replace agents‚ but acts as a force multiplier for them‚ ensuring that baseline questions are answered correctly and on-brand‚ while still enabling subtlety and empathy in less obvious situations․
Some teams use AI to translate or simplify support communications for different audiences‚ enabling them to support global customers without needing to hire additional staff․
6. Automate onboarding and welcome communications
Automation can also play an important role in onboarding‚ by providing an automated welcome sequence for new customers to help them get set up‚ implement best practices‚ and learn about key features and resources․
These sequences can incorporate email‚ in-app messages‚ and chat prompts to create a cross-channel experience․
To the support staff who deal with these customers‚ this reduces the number of “I don’t know where to start” help desk questions that pile up in the first few days after signing up․
Perhaps more considerably‚ walking users through the most important workflows has contributed to increased activation and retention rates․
One of the most visible ways to use AI automation in support is by transitioning from firefighting to empowering customers and agents with self-service and insights․
7. Trigger proactive support with behavior signals
An even more advanced form of automation involves proactively reaching out to customers before they reach out to you by identifying usage trends or risk signals based on the way they are using the product․
For example‚ when a user repeats the same action‚ fails to complete a key workflow‚ or is beginning to disengage‚ a system could send a personalized message or offer assistance before the customer churns․
These models may be based on behavioral analytics and artificial intelligence models‚ which have tracked tens of thousands of data points‚ events‚ and user behaviors to identify signals that can be used in a support flow to prevent and surface issues before they arise to improve customer satisfaction․
As well‚ proactive messaging must be finely tuned so as not to be perceived as spam‚ and teams iterate based on feedback and response rates․
8. Automate feedback collection and analysis
Many teams capture this feedback automatically as part of their improvement processes‚ for example‚ automatically sending out a customer satisfaction survey once a ticket is closed or analyzing customer messages to understand the sentiment․
This can also support testing‚ benchmarking‚ tracking performance versus targets‚ identifying trends and patterns to tackle, and prioritizing product or process changes․
For support leaders‚ this automation means raw interaction data is transformed into structured insights․
Instead of manually reviewing tickets‚ they view dashboards containing information about common problems‚ emerging topics‚ agent performance‚ etc․
Another effective way to improve efficiency in support is through AI automation․
Every interaction can be a learning and improvement opportunity․
9. Integrate omnichannel experiences
Omnichannel integration is a common thread in customer support automation workflows․
Customers do not care what channel they are in․
Customers expect the context to move with them as they continue the conversation via chat‚ email‚ phone‚ social media, or in an in-app message․
Automation across channels offers the advantage that each interaction builds on prior interactions‚ instead of beginning with a blank slate․
For example‚ if a customer starts a chat conversation and later sends an email‚ we want to show the chat conversation in the history view for the email conversation‚ and vice versa‚ so that the agent doesn’t have to ask the customer for context each time․
This is a feature that differentiates fragmented support experiences from single-threaded experiences‚ and is a common area of focus for teams modernizing their support workflows․
10. Build a feedback‑driven automation roadmap
The best customer support automation is not a single project․
Top teams start by identifying manual activities that take the most time or happen most often‚ and then determine which of those can be fully or partially automated․
They roll out gradual changes and analyze their effects in order to improve them based on real-world data․
This roadmap often includes:
- Pinpointing the top 20% of support scenarios that consume the most time.
- Designing workflows that combine bots, knowledge bases, and human agents.
- Continuously monitoring metrics like resolution time, satisfaction scores, and agent workload.
By combining this with a full focus on AI automating support operations‚ your support function can be scaled better․
There are options emerging like Ferndesk, which do seem to align with most of these points․
But the fundamental principle remains for any support teams the same: to automate support to be faster‚ smarter, and more human․
Technology
Can Nigeria Build Enough Solar Panels? TechCartel Breaks Down the New Taxes on Imported Tech
There was a time when a solar panel on a Nigerian rooftop was a luxury, the kind of thing you saw at a hotel or a church with generous donors. That time has passed. Across the country, solar panels have become a defining feature of the skyline, appearing on rooftops and office blocks in nearly every neighborhood. Once viewed as a luxury, solar has transitioned into a fundamental necessity for millions of households and businesses. For many, it serves as the foundation of their daily power needs.
The Federal Government has now moved to change how those panels get into the country, and the implications are landing on an energy market that has quietly built its entire informal infrastructure around imported solar hardware.
According to a detailed breakdown published by TechCartel, one of Nigeria’s most closely watched tech publications for consumer technology, the government is not staging an overnight ban. What it is staging is a structured financial squeeze: higher import taxes on finished solar panels, lower duties on raw materials for local manufacturers, and a 2036 target for 100 percent local production.
The policy timeline started earlier than most people noticed. In March 2025, the Minister of State for Technology, Uche Nnaji, announced a Solar Import Phase-out Roadmap. The stated motivation was the import bill, which crossed ₦200 billion in a single year. By January 2026, the Rural Electrification Agency reported that local manufacturing capacity had grown from 120 MW to 300 MW. On April 1, 2026, the Minister of Finance signed the 2026 Fiscal Policy Measures, formally introducing Import Adjustment Taxes on finished solar goods. A Green Tax Surcharge follows on July 1, 2026.
For anyone who opened an import Form M before April 1, there is a 90-day window to clear goods at the old rate. After that, the new cost structure kicks in. The Secure Energy Project estimates a 15 to 25 percent rise in solar panel prices by late 2026.

Can Nigerians Still Afford to Power Themselves?
To understand why this policy lands differently in Nigeria than it would elsewhere, you have to understand what the grid has done to Nigerian electricity habits. Years of erratic supply, multi-hour daily outages, and voltage fluctuations that destroy electronics did not produce a population waiting patiently for the government to fix things. It produced a population that fixed things itself.
First came generators, petrol then diesel then gas. Then came inverters with lead-acid batteries, then lithium batteries, and then solar panels added on top to charge them without spending on fuel. The 1 kWh solar generator, once considered a niche product, is now a completely ordinary fixture in small households and one-room businesses. Some call them power stations, and that name has started to feel accurate. Provisions shops, phone repair kiosks, tailoring studios, and barbing salons run on them every single day. They are small enough to sit on a balcony, affordable enough for a two-month savings plan, and powerful enough to run lights, DC fans, and a phone charger without touching a NEPA bill.
The scale goes well beyond individual homes. Petrol stations that once ran generators round the clock have converted their canopy roofs into solar arrays, running hybrid systems where solar handles daytime load and the generator only kicks in at night. Pharmacies, internet cafés, printing shops, and cold rooms powering perishables now run on solar. The solar transition in Nigeria has been market-driven and it has moved fast.
That context is what makes the arithmetic in TechCartel’s breakdown so pointed. Nigeria’s local solar manufacturing capacity stands at 300 MW as of April 2026. The country’s estimated demand for energy stability is 3.7 GW. The gap is over 3,400 MW. Local manufacturers currently price their panels about 16 percent above imported alternatives. As import taxes rise, that gap will narrow, but the timeline is vital. If local capacity grows faster than analysts expect, the transition could be orderly.
The government’s $425 million commitment to eight new manufacturing plants, and the 150 percent capacity growth achieved in a single year, suggest the industrial ambition is real. Nigerian-assembled panels are already being exported to Ghana and Burkina Faso, which signals a manufacturing base serious enough to serve regional demand. The 2036 target is a decade away, but the trajectory is being built now.
For Nigerians planning a solar installation in the coming months, the window is clear. The Form M grace period runs 90 days from April 1. The Green Tax Surcharge begins July 1. Any installation completed before that first wave of cost increases arrives will avoid the opening price shock. After that, the cost of running your own power in Nigeria, already a choice made out of necessity, gets a little harder to justify on a budget.
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