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Russia, Guinea-Bissau Raising Strategic Partnership

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Russia Guinea-Bissau partnership

By Kestér Kenn Klomegâh

With high anticipation for increased partnership between Russia and Guinea-Bissau that has never been stronger since the collapse of the Soviet Union, but the anticipated change, to be facilitated by implementing bilateral agreements, provides a brimming hope and possibility.

Russian President Vladimir Putin definitively re-asserted and underscored a comprehensive bilateral collaboration, in a speech, at a highly-guarded Kremlin meeting held on February 26, with President of the Republic of Guinea-Bissau, Umaro Sissoco Embalo, who was in Russia on an official state working visit, and that was the fourth time to Moscow.

On 9th May 2024, Guinea-Bissau leader Embalo was one of the special guests to the May Day celebrations at the Red Square and later as part of the team to discuss peace initiatives with the Kremlin.

That May Day celebrations, Putin stressed that “Africa is now building up capacity and aspires to emerging as an effective powerhouse in a multipolar world with its unique identity by making confident strides in nurturing a genuine sense of political and economic sovereignty.”

During the first Quarter of 2025, Central African Republic (CAR), Faustin-Archange Touadéra, in mid-January, which analysts, however, speculated that a permanent Russian military base was planned for CAR.

An agreement on military-technical cooperation with the Russian Federation includes supply of specified military weapons and equipment, training of personnel in Russia’s military institutions as well as building a military base in the country in exchange for having complete access to natural resources.

There are estimated 2,500 Russian instructors working there, according to local Russian media reports. That Central African Republic (CAR), Faustin-Archange Touadéra was followed by Guinea-Bissau leader Umaro Sissoco Embalo.

Within a few minutes of arrival at the guest reception hall, an artfully security guards escorted, reminiscent of Soviet times, the consultations began with a restricted format meeting between the two leaders, with Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, Presidential Aide Yury Ushakov and Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Pankin attending the meeting on the Russian side.

Putin reminded first that Russian-Guinea-Bissauan diplomatic relations have marked more than 50 years of their establishment, and further underscored significant successes and achievements during the past few years, concretely after the first Russia-Africa Summit in 2019. Putin emphasised that last year, trade between Russia and Africa continued to grow, increasing by 10 per cent. However, trade and economic ties between two countries undoubtedly require careful attention from both sides, so that these ties could gain additional momentum.

Russia and Guinea-Bissau have previously signed various agreements to bolster trade, economic cooperation and military-technical sphere, and beyond that created working groups on developing and subsequent implementation of programmes and projects, particularly in Guinea-Bissau. “There is strong potential and promising opportunities in these areas, as many Russian companies are showing increasing interest in working in the Guinea-Bissauan market,” according to Putin.

Reports indicate that over 70 per cent of Guinea-Bissau’s servicemen and civilian officials were trained in the Soviet Union. This explains the necessity for the level of close interaction and cooperation with Russia. Educational and cultural ties are expanding. Putin primarily referred to the growing interest among young people in getting an education in Russia. This applies to military education and training as much as civilian programmes. Traditionally, the military of Guinea-Bissau gets their degrees from Russian military academies. Moreover, Russia has increased the quota for Guinea-Bissauan friends for the current year, 2025/26.

President of the Republic of Guinea-Bissau, Umaro Sissoco Embalo, began negotiation talks with the Russians, and of course, that was the realpolitik logic to review relations, by expressing high gratitude for contributions to the establishment of their nationhood made back in the Soviet Union era, and since gaining political independence, during post-Soviet times when Russia has continued to make significant admirable contributions to the current economic development.

This pointed to the unerasable fact that the Guinea-Bissauan and Russian peoples are reliable partners and endearingly ready to promote the bilateral ties of friendship and to strengthen further economic cooperation.

Meanwhile, the most cogent truth about the previous official visits undertaken by Umaro Sissoco Embalo, included the first (2019) and second (2023) Russia-Africa Summits, respectively in the southern city of Sochi and the cultural capital, St. Petersburg. Umaro Sissoco Embalo showed extra-caution in imploring potential Russian investors, with tectonic interest not only in Guinea-Bissau but also generally with African countries, to ‘walk the talk’ referring to several agreements that have not been implemented over the years. From the first Russia-Africa Summit, a total of 92 agreements were signed with African countries, and that was followed by numerous agreements during the St. Petersburg’s summit in July 2023.

In the context of changing geopolitical balance, at least, it is important to understand the real situation on the ground. Russia has to focus concretely, back away from mere rhetoric, on partnership based on local African realities, take into practical account Africa’s sustainable development goals and to prioritise the African Union’s Agenda 2063. It is important that the declarations just remain on paper, but lead to real actions and projects, with visible results.

Back in October 2022, Umaro Sissoco Embalo, as President of Guinea-Bissau and Chairman of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), during that Kremlin meeting, Putin emphasized Russia’s contribution in promoting security not only in Guinea-Bissau but also throughout West Africa. With a population of approximately 1.8 million people, Guinea-Bissau faces challenges of ensuring security and more than two-thirds of its population lives below the poverty line.

Guinea-Bissau, like many African states, has had political problems. Embalo has held the presidential post in Guinea-Bissau since January 2020, and will soon hold the next elections. Putin unreservedly promised Russia’s assistance and strongly urged the Guinea-Bissauans, during the forthcoming elections, to support Umaru Sissoco Embalo and to continue the admirable work started as President. Acknowledged the good relations that have developed between Russia and Guinea-Bissau, in these recent years, largely associated with the name of Umaru Sissoco Embalo.

Some local Russian media pulled discussions and analysis, tied up with the attempts to support Guinea-Bissau leader Umaro Sissoco Embalo to win the elections, (i) first to sustain large-scale partnership in security issues in West Africa, and second for continuity of Russia-Guinea Bissauan relationship, and (ii) second to capital on political stability in exploring of natural resources, construction of infrastructure facilities, as well as development of agriculture and fisheries.

Notwithstanding Russia’s several promises and pledges, African countries are bound to wake up to a common understanding of the true meaning of their colonial past for the present, and determine their own future existence. And in fact, the leaders and the elites have to engage in development decision-making processes, and at the same time have to play their roles as autonomous actors instead of being pawns in the context of global geopolitics.

Sharing borders with Guinea (to the southeast), Gambia and Senegal (to the north), Guinea-Bissau attained its independence in September 1973. Guinea-Bissau follows a non-aligned foreign policy and seeks friendly and cooperative relations with a wide variety of states and organizations. Besides, Eсonomic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), Guinea-Bissau is a member of the African Union (AU) and the United Nations.

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TikTok Signs Deal to Avoid US Ban

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Forex Advice on TikTok

By Adedapo Adesanya

Social media platform, TikTok’s Chinese owner ByteDance has signed binding agreements with United States and global investors to operate its business in America.

Half of the joint venture will be owned by a group of investors, including Oracle, Silver Lake and the Emirati investment firm MGX, according to a memo sent by chief executive, Mr Shou Zi Chew.

The deal, which is set to close on January 22, 2026 would end years of efforts by the US government to force ByteDance to sell its US operations over national security concerns.

It is in line with a deal unveiled in September, when US President Donald Trump delayed the enforcement of a law that would ban the app unless it was sold.

In the memo, TikTok said the deal will enable “over 170 million Americans to continue discovering a world of endless possibilities as part of a vital global community”.

Under the agreement, ByteDance will retain 19.9 per cent of the business, while Oracle, Silver Lake and Abu Dhabi-based MGX will hold 15 per cent each.

Another 30.1 per cent will be held by affiliates of existing ByteDance investors, according to the memo.

The White House previously said that Oracle, which was co-founded by President Trump’s supporter Larry Ellison, will license TikTok’s recommendation algorithm as part of the deal.

The deal comes after a series of delays.

Business Post reported in April 2024 that the administration of President Joe Biden passed a law to ban the app over national security concerns, unless it was sold.

The law was set to go into effect on January 20, 2025 but was pushed back multiple times by President Trump, while his administration worked out a deal to transfer ownership.

President Trump said in September that he had spoken on the phone to China’s President Xi Jinping, who he said had given the deal the go ahead.

The platform’s future remained unclear after the leaders met face to face in October.

The app’s fate was clouded by ongoing tensions between the two nations on trade and other matters.

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United States, Russia Resolving Trade Issues, Seeking New Business Opportunities

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Kirill Dmitriev, CEO (RDIF) and Russian Presidents Special Envoy to United States

By Kestér Kenn Klomegâh

Despite the complexities posed by Russia-Ukraine crisis, United States has been taking conscious steps to improve commercial relations with Russia. Unsurprisingly, Russia, on the other hand, is also moving to restore and normalise its diplomacy, negotiating for direct connections of air-routes and passionate permission to return its diplomats back to Washington and New York.

In the latest developments, Kirill Dmitriev, Chief Executive Officer of the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF), has been appointed as Russian President’s Special Envoy to United States. This marked an important milestone towards raising bilateral investment and economic cooperation. Russian President Vladimir Putin tasked him to exclusively promote business dialogue between the two countries, and further to negotiate for the return of U.S. business enterprises. According to authentic reports, United States businesses lost $300+ bn during this Russia-Ukraine crisis, while Russia’s estimated 1,500 diplomats were asked to return to Moscow.

Strategically in late November 2025, the American Chamber of Commerce in Russia (AmCham) has awarded Kirill Dmitriev, praised him for calculated efforts in promoting positive dialogue between the United States and Russia within the framework decreed by President Vladimir Putin. Chief Executive Officer of Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) Kirill Dmitriev is the Special Representative of the Russian President for Economic Cooperation with Foreign Countries. Since his appointment, his primary focus has been on United States.

“Received an American Chamber of Commerce award ‘For leadership in fostering the US-Russia dialogue,’” Dmitriev wrote on his X page, in late November, 2025. According to Dmitriev, more than 150 US companies are currently operating in Russia, with more than 70% of them being present on the Russian market for over 25 years.

In addition, Chamber President Sergey Katyrin and American Chamber of Commerce in Russia (AmCham) President Robert Agee have also been discussing alternatives pathways to raise bilateral business cooperation. Both have held series of meetings throughout this year, indicating the the importance of sustaining relations as previously. Expectedly, the Roscongress Foundation has been offered its platforms during St. Petersburg International Economic (SPIEF) for the American Chamber of Commerce (AmCham).

On December 9, Sergey Katyrin and Robert Agee noted that, despite existing problems and non-economic obstacles, the business communities of Russia and the United States proceed from the necessity of maintaining professional dialogue. Despite the worsening geopolitical conditions, Sergey Katyrin and Robert Agee noted the importance of preserving stable channels of trade and pragmatic prospects for economic cooperation. These will further serve as a stabilizing factor and an instrument for building mutual trust at the level of business circles, industry associations, and the expert community.

The American Chamber of Commerce (AmCham) will be working in the system of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry (CCI) in the Russian Federation, which currently comprises 57,000 legal entities, 130 regional chambers and a combined network of representative offices covering more than 350 points of presence.

According to reports obtained by this article author from the AmCham, promising sectors for Russian-American economic cooperation include healthcare and the medical industry, civil aviation, communications/telecom, natural resource extraction, and energy/energy equipment. The United States and Russia have, more or less, agreed to continue coordinating their work to facilitate the formation of a more favorable environment for Russian and American businesses, reduce risks, and strengthen business ties. Following the American-Russian Dialogue, a joint statement and working documents were adopted.

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Reviewing the Dynamics of Indian–Russian Business Partnership

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Sammy Kotwani Indian Business Association Indian–Russian Business Partnership

By Kestér Kenn Klomegâh

The Executive President of the Indian Business Alliance (IBA), Sammy Manoj Kotwani, discusses the landmark moment in deepening Russian-Indian collaboration. Kotwani explains the groundbreaking insights into President Vladimir Putin’s working visit to India, the emerging opportunities and pathways for future cooperation, especially for the two-sided economic collaboration. Follow Sammy Manoj Kotwani’s discussions here:

Interpretation of the latest development in Russian-Indian relations

From my viewpoint in Moscow, this visit has effectively opened a new operational chapter in what has always been described as a “Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership.” It did not just reaffirm political goodwill; it translated that goodwill into a structured economic roadmap through Programme 2030, a clear target to take bilateral trade to around USD 100 billion by 2030, and concrete sectoral priorities: energy, nuclear cooperation, critical minerals, manufacturing, connectivity, fertilizers, and labour mobility.

On the ground, the business community reads this summit as a strong signal that India and Russia are doubling down on strategic autonomy in a multipolar world order. Both sides are trying to de-risk their supply chains and payment systems from over-dependence on any single centre of power. This is visible in the focus on national currencies, alternative payment mechanisms, and efforts to stabilise Rupee–Ruble trade, alongside discussions on a Free Trade Agreement with the Eurasian Economic Union and the reinforcement of corridors like the INSTC and the Chennai–Vladivostok route.

In short, my interpretation is that this summit has moved the relationship from “politically excellent but structurally imbalanced” towards a more diversified, long-term economic framework in which companies are expected to co-produce, co-innovate, and invest, not just trade opportunistically.

Significance of the visit for Indian business in Russia and for the Indian Business Alliance (IBA)

For Indian business operating in the Russian Federation, the visit has three immediate effects: confidence, clarity, and continuity. Confidence, because Indian entrepreneurs now see that despite external pressure, New Delhi and Moscow have explicitly committed to deepening economic engagement—especially in energy, fertilizers, defence co-production, nuclear, and critical minerals—rather than quietly scaling it back.

Clarity, because the summit outcomes spell out where the real opportunities lie:

Energy & Petrochemicals: Long-term crude and LNG supply, but also downstream opportunities in refining, petrochemicals, and logistics, where Indian EPC and service companies can participate.

Pharmaceuticals & Medical Devices: Russia’s import substitution drive makes high-quality Indian generics, formulations, and even localized manufacturing extremely relevant.

IT, Digital & AI: There is growing appetite in Russia for Indian IT services, cybersecurity, and digital solutions that are not dependent on Western tech stacks.

Fertilizers, Agro & Food Processing: New joint ventures in fertilizers and agriculture supply chains were explicitly flagged during and around the summit, which is important for both food security and farm incomes.

Continuity, because the Programme 2030 framework and the expected EAEU FTA give businesses a medium-term policy horizon. Tariff reductions, improved market access and predictable regulation are precisely what Indian SMEs and mid-sized companies need to justify long-term investments in Russia.

For the Indian Business Alliance (IBA), this inevitably means more work and more responsibility. We already see increased incoming requests from Indian firms—from large listed companies to first-time exporters—asking very practical questions: Which Russian region should we enter? How do we navigate compliance under the sanctions environment? Which banks are still handling Rupee–Ruble or third-currency settlements? How can we structure joint ventures to align with Russia’s import substitution goals while protecting IP and governance standards?

IBA’s role, therefore, becomes that of economic diplomacy in action: translating high-level summit language into actual B2B meetings, sectoral delegations, regional partnerships, and deal-making platforms such as the India–Russia Business Dialogue in Moscow. This visit will undoubtedly stimulate and intensify IBA’s work as a bridge between the two ecosystems.

India’s current economic presence in the Russian Federation

If we look beyond the headline trade figures, India’s economic presence in Russia today is significant, but not yet commensurate with its potential. Bilateral trade has grown sharply since 2022, largely on the back of discounted Russian oil and coal, making India one of Russia’s top energy customers.  However, the structure is still heavily skewed: Russian exports to India dominate, while Indian exports and investments in Russia remain relatively modest and under-diversified.

On the ground in Moscow and across the regions, we see several strong Indian footholds:

Pharmaceuticals: Indian pharma is well-established, respected for its affordability and quality, and poised to deepen localization in line with Russian import substitution policy.

Tea, Coffee, Spices & Food: Traditional segments with deep historical roots, now expanding into ready-to-eat, wellness, and ethnic food categories.

IT & Services: Still under-represented, but with growing interest as Russian entities look for non-Western software, integration, and outsourcing partners.

Diamonds, Textiles, Apparel, and Light Engineering: Present but fragmented, with enormous room to scale, especially if logistics and payment challenges are addressed.

Where India is still behind is on-the-ground investment and manufacturing presence compared to countries like China. Russian policymakers today are clearly favouring investors who help them achieve technological sovereignty and local value addition. For serious Indian companies willing to commit capital, adapt to Russian standards, and accept the complexities of the current environment, this is a period of unusual opportunity. For purely transactional players looking for quick arbitrage, it is becoming progressively harder.

So, I would characterise India’s economic presence as: strategically important, quickly growing in value, but still under-leveraged in terms of depth, diversification, and localization.

Geopolitical pressure from Washington and future predictions

Pressure from Washington—through sanctions, secondary sanctions risk, financial restrictions, and now even tariff measures linked to India’s energy purchases from Russia—is undoubtedly a real and continuing challenge.  It affects everything from shipping insurance and dollar transactions to technology transfers and the risk appetite of global banks. In practical terms, it can complicate even a simple India–Russia trade deal if it touches a sanctioned bank, vessel, or technology.

However, my own assessment, based on 35 years of living and working in Russia, is that this pressure will not fundamentally derail India–Russia friendship, but it will reshape how the relationship functions. India’s foreign policy is anchored in strategic autonomy; it seeks strong ties with the United States and Europe, but not at the cost of abandoning a time-tested partner like Russia. Russia, for its part, sees India as a crucial Asian pole in an emerging multipolar world order and as a long-term market, technology partner, and political counterpart in forums like BRICS, SCO, and the G20.

Looking ahead, I see a few clear trends:

Normalization of alternative payment and logistics systems

We will see more institutionalised use of national currencies, alternative messaging systems, regional banks outside the direct sanctions line, and maybe even digital currencies for specific corridors. Rupee–Ruble trade mechanisms that are today seen as “workarounds” will gradually become part of the normal infrastructure of bilateral commerce.

Shift from pure trade to co-production and joint innovation

To reduce vulnerability to sanctions, both sides will push for manufacturing in India and Russia rather than simple exports: defence co-development, localized pharma and medical devices, high-tech and AI collaborations, and joint ventures in critical minerals and clean energy.

Greater role for regions and business associations

Regional governments in Russia (Far East, Arctic regions, industrial hubs) and Indian states will increasingly drive project-level cooperation, supported by platforms like IBA. This “bottom-up” economic diplomacy will make the relationship more resilient than if it relied only on central governments.

Managed balancing by India

India will continue to deepen technology and investment ties with the West while maintaining energy, defence and strategic cooperation with Russia. The challenge will be to manage U.S. and EU expectations without compromising its core national interests. My prediction is that India will stay firm on this course of balanced engagement, even if it means occasional friction with Washington.

In essence, external pressure may complicate the methods of Indo-Russian cooperation, but it is unlikely to overturn the foundations of trust, mutual interest, and long-term complementarity that have been built over decades.

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