World
Russia-Ukraine Crisis: Its Impact and Implications for Southern Africa

By Kestér Kenn Klomegâh
This article attempts to contribute to the discussions on the evolutionary political confrontations and contradictions between Russia and Ukraine, its impact on and implications for Southern Africa.
Historically, both Russia and Ukraine attained their independence after the collapse of the Soviet era in 1991. It has embarked on territorial expansionism, annexing neighbouring former Soviet republics. Its annexation ambitions started with Georgia, then Crimea and now Ukraine. That, however, Russia considered itself a superpower and hopes to lead the emerging new world order.
After these several months, Russia’s “special military operation” approved by the Federation Council and the State Duma (legislative chambers) and which began on February 24 has had a tremendous impact on Africa.
As already known, it has pushed the United States, European Union (EU) and a few Asia-Pacific states to impose draconian sanctions on Russia.
This article helps to understand the impact, some of the implications and future directions by looking specifically at the Southern African region.
The Southern African Development Community (SADC) is a regional political-economic organization made up of 16 member states, with a population of approximately 395 million compared with Russia with approximately 145 million.
The SADC collectively aims at, among others, promoting sustainable social-economic development that will ensure poverty alleviation and enhancing ultimately the living standards of the people in Southern Africa. Despite differences in approach to politics in individual states, the group cooperates on issues of security in the region.
The Russian Federation maintains friendly bilateral relations practically with all these southern African states: Angola, Botswana, Comoros, Democratic Republic of Congo, Eswatini, Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, Seychelles, South Africa, United Republic of Tanzania, Zambia and Zimbabwe.
The diplomatic rhetoric is that it has uniquely supported the struggle for political liberation particularly in Angola, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa and Zimbabwe. And further to that, Russia claims to have a common understanding, solidarity and trusty position with African friends on important issues on international platforms including at the United Nations.
African representatives and their votes were considered very interesting. Some 17 African countries abstained from the vote at the UN General Assembly to deplore the Russian invasion of Ukraine while some other 28 countries in the continent voted in favour. Among those in the SADC bloc abstaining from vote include South Africa, Mozambique, Mauritius, Namibia, Angola, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Tanzania and the Democratic Republic of Congo.
The Russia-SADC Economic Scenario
The Southern African countries are struggling to overcome multiple challenges that have originated due to the endless Russia-Ukraine crisis. But a careful study and analysis show that prior to the February 24 crisis which unfolded in Ukraine, Russia indicated strong preparedness and high interest to broaden cooperation in economic sectors in Africa.
In efforts to reposition itself to become a major partner, the following priorities as an economic strategy in the region were jointly put forward during the Russia-SADC meeting held back in September 2019:
– Prospecting, mining, oil, construction, mining, purchase of gas, oil, uranium, and bauxite assets (Angola, Namibia and South Africa);
– Construction of power facilities: hydroelectric power plants on the River Congo (Angola, Namibia, and Zambia,) and nuclear power plants (South Africa);
– Creation of a floating nuclear power plant, and South African participation in the international project to build a nuclear enrichment centre in Russia;
– Railway construction (Angola);
– Creation of Russian trade houses for the promotion and maintenance of Russian engineering products (South Africa); and
– Participation of Russian companies in the privatisation of industrial assets, including those created with technical assistance from the former Soviet Union (Angola).
Of course, there are disparities in the level of development and cooperation between Russia and individual states in Southern Africa. At least during the past few years, Russia has notably strengthened relations with most of them. For example, it has leveraged into exploring lucrative platinum projects at Darwendale (Zimbabwe).
Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov launched this $3 billion project back in 2014, after years of negotiations, with the hope of raising its economic profile in Zimbabwe. Few other anticipated projects have sprung up in Angola, DRC, Mozambique, Zambia, Zimbabwe and South Africa.
While COVID-19 impacted development progress, there are currently signs of disarray caused by restrictive foreign exchange policies and continuing inability to determine funding sources for Africa. Russia has been engulfed with crisis and worse under serious sanctions, bilateral agreements might take years to realize fully in most Southern African countries.
Our research shows that ten SADC member-states have diplomatic offices in the Russian Federation: Angola, Democratic Republic of Congo, Madagascar, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa, Tanzania, Zambia, and Zimbabwe.
Impact of the Russia-Ukraine Crisis
According to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, many African countries rely on Russia and Ukraine for wheat imports. Russia is a major supplier of fertilizers to 15 African countries. Reuters news agency reported that Africa is suffering from disruptions in food supply and soaring prices of basic goods and risks “disastrous consequences” if the situation endures.
This position was supported by African Union Chairman Macky Sall during a conversation with philanthropist Mo Ibrahim at the Ibrahim Governance Forum, far ahead before he travelled to Sochi, Russia. That Sochi trip discussed measures which could alleviate the escalating problems related to the food and agricultural inputs and further reviewed strategic solutions within the context of Russia-African relations.
Despite the assurance of reversing the situation offered at the Putin-Sall-Faki meeting, the Russia-Ukraine never-ending crisis still flushing up commodity prices worldwide. Africa’s economy is currently worsening, a direct primary result of rising energy costs. This economic instability further generated social discontent and tension among vulnerable impoverished groups across the population. Some have asked for wage indexations as well as increments in pensions and unemployment payments.
Local South African media have reported, during the previous months, about workers protesting against inflationary prices in Angola, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Mozambique, South Africa and Zimbabwe. There have been sharp currency fluctuations throughout the southern African region.
Southern Africa depends on some imported goods, such as agricultural produce and fertilizers, from Russia and Ukraine. In terms of negotiations, much has to be done in order to reach comprehensive agreements to free movement of these to Africa’s market.
Experts suggested in separate interviews that it was necessary to implement the memorandum between Russia and the UN on exports of Russian agricultural products and fertilizers.
Arguably, there are indications that Washington and Brussels’ anti-Russian sanctions do not apply to foodstuffs and fertilizers. While some explain further that there are still obstacles to banking settlements, insurance and carriage of cargoes at shipping terminals due to Western sanctions.
From our analytical position, first, as African countries face continued uncertainty, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank (WB) interventions are necessarily seen only as short-term solutions. And second, in an article published by the French Press Agency (AFP), says negotiations between the AU leadership and the Russian president illustrate the importance of enhancing bilateral relations.
While African leaders are attempting to build international solidarity and alliances aimed at achieving genuine peace and global security, and for an emerging new order, it is also important to initiate a new reform drive to transform agriculture and industry throughout Africa. African financial institutions, such as the African Development Bank (AfDB), urgently have to prioritize investing more in food production in the continent.
Highly commendably, the initiative, the Feed Africa strategy for Agricultural Transformation in Africa (2016 to 2025), is to move the continent to the top of export-orientated global value chains where it has a comparative advantage. This aims at making Africa a net exporter rather than an importer of basic agricultural products and contributing to eliminating extreme poverty in Africa and ending hunger and malnutrition in Africa by 2025.
Our research shows the bank’s efforts have brought home $1.5 billion for the African Emergency Food Production Facility. It has been advocating for expanding social protection programmes, strengthening economic resilience and responsiveness to shocks of the Russia-Ukraine crisis. The African Development Bank Group is Africa’s premier development finance institution.
Emerging Economic Prospects
Despite the negative impacts and consequences, the Russia-Ukraine crisis has simultaneously opened doors (opportunities) for Africa. Europe has seen potential supplies of energy especially gas from the region. As Mozambique is gradually emerging as an exploration hub, it is attracting investors from Europe. Meanwhile, leading energy companies such as TotalEnergies, ExxonMobil, British Petroleum (BP), Shell and Eni are already working in the region, seeking alternative supplies in light of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Mozambique’s President Filipe Nyusi and stanch member of the Southern African Development Community (SADC), has spearheaded multiple initiatives and partnerships with international partners to boost security and ensure project resumption. As a result, the European Union recently announced a plan to increase financial support for Mozambique while energy majors TotalEnergies, ExxonMobil and Eni are focused on getting projects back on track.
Mozambique is increasingly stepping up efforts in the production of liquefied natural gas and consequently becoming one of the suitable reliable suppliers to Europe. While it might not replace Russia which cuts its export of gas as a reciprocal action against European Union members, Mozambique seeks ultimately to earn some revenue from its natural resources.
In late July, the outgoing EU Ambassador to Mozambique, Sánchez-Benedito Gaspar, argued that natural gas from Cabo Delgado was among the alternatives in Europe’s plan to diversify energy sources in the face of constraints caused by Russia’s military operation in Ukraine.
“Mozambique’s gas, with the presence of large European multinational companies, now has an even more important and strategic value,” Sánchez-Benedito Gaspar said in an interview with Lusa, Mozambican News Agency, in Maputo. According to the diplomat, Europe came to the conclusion that “it cannot trust its old partner (Russia, among the world’s biggest gas exporters), which is authoritarian and uses gas as an instrument of war,” and is making efforts to secure alternative sources.
With an approximate population of 30 million, Mozambique is endowed with natural resources. With the untapped huge resources, if it is strategically well-managed and exploited in the southern states – Angola, Mozambique, Namibia, Tanzania and South Africa, it will possibly be making energy poverty history in the southern region and possibly entire Africa.
The Puzzling Politics
From the political perspective, a majority of African leaders have in principle endorsed multilateralism, and also reminded respect for territorial sovereignty, independence and human rights. Reference has been made to non-interference in nations’ internal affairs that brought to the fore the general principles on which the Non-Alignment Movement organization was created.
South African President Ramaphosa called for promoting international peace and security by advocating inclusive dialogue and the peaceful settlement of disputes.
“We must safeguard the principle of multilateralism. We need a United Nations that is fit-for-purpose and clear in its benefits to all humanity, especially in times of insecurity and crises,” the President said late June.
Nearly all the experts contacted for this article have the same arguable points, especially regarding safeguarding and walling (fencing) to be used by key powers as “political playing grounds” in the Southern African region. Despite the contradictions, the experts acknowledged the fact that western hegemony and “rule-based order” be halted, and make way for the new emerging world order.
Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, however, informed about broadening African issues in the “new version of Russia’s Foreign Policy Concept against the background of the waning of the Western direction” and this will objectively increase the share of the African direction in the work of the Foreign Ministry. It was last updated in 2013.
The development of a comprehensive partnership with African countries remains among the top priorities of Russia’s foreign policy, Moscow is open to its further build-up, Lavrov said in an Op-Ed article for the African media, and originally published on the ministry’s website in late July.
The Future Roadmap
We have seen the extent African leaders express political sympathy for Russia. For Russia to regain a part of its Soviet-era influence, it has to address its own policy approach, this time shifting towards new paradigms – implementing some of those bilateral agreements; secondly to promote development-oriented policies and its strategic efforts have to be more practical, more consistent, more effective and result-oriented with African countries.
In the context of building post-Soviet relations, Russia has to attempt to create a new model of template for itself, and for what it often refers to as “non-Western friends” in the crucial geopolitical changes occurring now in order to bring them into its armpit from Asia, Africa and Latin America.
African leaders, under the auspices of the African Union, have to design a broad roadmap. Significantly it is necessary to adopt “a collective voice and approach” for the continent.
On other hand, a major rethink is urgently required in the current evolutionary processes of the new world order. The first drastic step is for Africans to identify their weaknesses, understand the fact that it is endowed with huge natural resources and, therefore, work together in complete harmony by pulling their own large-scale resources to fund the development agenda.
From our analytical perspectives, it is now time for Africa and its youth to stand up and defend its history and riches. And the significant challenge is the need for the adoption of a unified strategy to avoid being used as a pawn in global power games. This should be the continental task for the SADC and the African Union.
Specifically, South African Development Community leaders have to follow the same line of procedures for the region. In the process of seeking additional support and whatever contributions from foreign partners and foreign investors, either government or private, these have to fall within the roadmap as re-emphasized during the 42nd summit of the South African Development Community.
World
Trump’s Tariffs, Russia and Africa Trade Cooperation in Emerging Multipolar World

By Kestér Kenn Klomegâh
With geopolitical situation heightening, trade wars are also becoming increasingly prominent. The 47th United States President Donald Trump has introduced trade tariffs, splashed it over the world. China, an Asian trade giant and an emerging economic superpower, has its highest shared.
South Africa, struggling with its fragile foreign alliances, is seriously navigating the new United States economic policy and trade measures, at least to maintain its membership in the African Growth and Opportunities Act (AGOA) which is going to expire in September 2025.
It is a well-known fact that AGOA waived duties on most commodities from Africa in order to boost trade in American market. The AGOA also offers many African countries trade preferences in the American market, earning huge revenues for their budgets. Financial remittances back to Africa also play mighty roles across the continent from the United States.
That however, the shifting geopolitical situation combined with Trump’s new trade policies and Russia’s rising interest in Africa, the overarching message for African leaders and business corporate executives is to review the level of degree how to appreciably approach and strengthen trade partnership between Africa and Russia.
The notion of a new global order and frequently phrased multipolar world, indicating the construction of a fairer architecture of interaction, in practical terms, has become like a relic and just as a monumental pillar. Even as we watch the full-blown recalibration of power, the geopolitical reshuffling undoubtedly creates the conditions for new forms of cooperation.
In this current era of contradictions and complexities we are witnessing today, we must rather reshape and redefine rules and regulations to facilitate bilateral and multilateral relations between African countries and Russia, if really Russia seeks to forge post-Soviet strategic economic cooperation with Africa.
In fact, post-Soviet in the sense that trade is not concentrate on state-to-state but also private – including, at least, medium scale businesses. The new policy dealing with realities of the geopolitical world, distinctively different from Soviet-era slogans and rhetorics of ‘international friendship and solidarity’ of those days.
Bridging Africa and Russia, at least in the literal sense of the word, necessitates partial departure from theoretical approach to implementing several bilateral and multilateral decisions, better still agreements reached at previous summits and conferences during the past decade.
Understandably Africa has a stage, Russia termed ‘the struggle against neo-colonial tendencies’ and mounting the metal walls against the ‘scrambling of resources’ across Africa. Some experts argued that Africa, at the current stage, has to develop its regions, modernize most the post-independence-era industries to produce exportable goods, not only for domestic consumption. Now the emphasis is on pushing for prospects of a single continental market, the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA).
This initiative, however, must be strategically and well-coordinated well, and here I suggest integration and cooperation starting at country-wide basis to regional level before it broadly goes to the entire continent, consisting 54 independent states.
These are coordinated together as African Union (AU), which in January 2021 initiated the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA). With this trading goals in mind, Africa as a continent has to integrate, promote trade and economic cooperation, engage in investment and development. In that direction, genuine foreign partners are indiscriminately required, foreign investment capital in essential for collaboration as well as their entrepreneurial skills and technical expertise.
For instance, developing relations with Asian giants such China and India, the European Union and the United States. A number of African countries are shifting to the BRICS orbit, in search for feasible alternative opportunities, for the theatrical trade drama. In the Eurasian region and the former Soviet space, Kazakhstan and Russia stand out, as potential partners, for Africa.
Foreign Affairs Minister Sergey Lavrov has said, at the podium before the staff and students at Moscow State Institute of International Affairs in September, that trade between Russia and Africa would grow further as more and more African partners continued to show interest in having Russians in the economic sectors in Africa. This provides greater competition between the companies from Western countries, China, and Russia. With competition for developing mineral resources in Africa, it is easier and cheaper for African colleagues to choose partners.
As far back in October 2010, Russian Foreign Affairs Ministry posted an official report on its website that traditional products from least developed countries (including Africa) would be exempted from import tariffs. The legislation stipulated that the traditional goods are eligible for preferential customs and tariffs treatment.
Thereafter, Minister Sergey Lavrov has reiterated, in speeches, trade preferences for African exporters, but terribly failed to honour these thunderous promises. Notwithstanding the above granting trade preferences, there prevailing multitude of questions relating to the pathways of improving trade transactions, and removing obstacles including those Soviet-era rules and regulations.
Logistics is another torny hurdle. Further to this, Russian financial institutions can offer credit support that will allow to localize Russian production in Africa’s industrial zones, especially southern and eastern African regions that show some stability and have good investment and business incentives.
In order to operate more effectively, Russians have to risk by investing, recognize the importance of cooperation on key investment issues and to work closely on the challenges and opportunities on the continent. On one hand, analyzing the present landscape of Africa, Russia can export its technology and compete on equal terms with China, India and other prominent players. On the other hand, Russia lacks the competitive advantage in terms of finished industrial (manufactured) products that African consumers obtain from Asian countries such as China, India, Japan and South Korea.
Compared to the United States and Europe, Russia did very little after the Cold War and it is doing little even today in Africa. On 27th–28th July 2023, St Petersburg hosted the second Russia-Africa summit. At the plenary session, President Vladimir Putin underscored the fact that there was, prior to the collapse of the Soviet, there were over 330 large infrastructure and industrial facilities in Africa, but most were lost. Regarding trade, Putin, regrettably, noted Russia’s trade turnover with the African countries increased in 2022 and reached almost US$18 billion, (of course, that was 2022).
Arguably, Russia’s economic presence is invisible across Africa. It currently has insignificant trade statistics. Until the end of the first quarter of 2025, Russia still has a little over $20 billion trade volume with Africa. Statistics on Africa’s trade with foreign countries vary largely.
For example, the total United States two-way trade in Africa has actually fallen off in recent years, to about $60 billion, far eclipsed by the European Union with over $240 billion, and China more than $280 billion, according to a website post by the Brookings Institution.
According to the African Development Bank, Africa’s economy is growing faster than those of any other regions. Nearly half of Africa is now classified as middle income countries, the numbers of Africans living below the poverty line fell to 39 percent as compared to 51 percent in 2023, and around 380 million of Africa’s 1.4 billion people are now earning good incomes – rising consumerism – that makes trade profitable.
Nevertheless, there is great potential, as African leaders and entrepreneurial community are turing to Russia for multifaceted cooperation due to the imperialist approach of the United States and its hegemonic stand triggered over the years, and now with Trump new trade tariffs and Washington’s entire African policy.
China has done its part, Russia has to change and adopt new rules and regulations, pragmatic approach devoid of mere frequent rhetorics. It is important discussing these points, and to shamelessly repeat that both Russia and Africa have to make consistent efforts to look for new ways, practical efforts at removing existing obstacles that have impeded trade over the years.
Sprawling from the Baltic Sea to the Pacific Ocean, Russia is a major great power and has the potential to become a superpower. Russia can regain part of its Soviet-era economic power and political influence in present-day Africa.
Certainly, the expected superpower status has to be attained by practical multifaceted sustainable development and by maintaining an appreciably positive relations with Africa. We have come a long way, especially after the resonating first summit (2019 and high-praised second summit (2023), several bilateral agreements are yet to be implemented. The forthcoming Russia – Africa Partnership summit is slated for 2026, inside Africa and preferably in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
Kestér Kenn Klomegâh is a frequent and passionate contributor. During his professional career as a researcher specialising in Russia-Africa policy, which spans nearly two decades, he has been detained and questioned several times by Russian federal security services for reporting facts. Most of his well-resourced articles are reprinted in a number of reputable foreign media.
World
Tariff War Threatens Global Economy, US-China Goods Trade By 80%—WTO DG

By Adedapo Adesanya
The Director General of the World Trade Organization (WTO), Mrs Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, has said the US-China tariff war could reduce trade in goods between the two economic giants by 80 per cent and hurt the rest of the world economy.
President Donald Trump raised tariffs on China to 125 per cent on Wednesday as the world’s two largest economies fought over retaliatory levies.
The American President earlier ramped up duties on Chinese goods to 104 per cent, only to hike them further when China retaliated by raising tariffs on US imports to 84 per cent.
In a social media post announcing the moves, President Trump said China had been singled out for special treatment because of “the lack of respect that China has shown to the world’s markets.”
In her reaction to the development, the WTO DG said in a statement that, “The escalating trade tensions between the United States and China pose a significant risk of a sharp contraction in bilateral trade. Our preliminary projections suggest that merchandise trade between these two economies could decrease by as much as 80 per cent.”
She said the United States and China account for three per cent of world trade and warned that the conflict could “severely damage the global economic outlook”.
Even as he slapped further tariffs on China, Mr Trump paused higher tariffs on the rest of the world for 90 days, claiming that dozens of countries reached out for negotiations.
Mrs Okonjo-Iweala warned that the world economy risked breaking into two blocs, one centred around the United States and the other China.
“Of particular concern is the potential fragmentation of global trade along geopolitical lines. A division of the global economy into two blocs could lead to a long-term reduction in global real GDP by nearly seven percent,” she said.
She urged all WTO members “to address this challenge through cooperation and dialogue.”
“It is critical for the global community to work together to preserve the openness of the international trading system.”
“WTO members have agency to protect the open, rules-based trading system. The WTO serves as a vital platform for dialogue. Resolving these issues within a cooperative framework is essential,” she added.
World
AFC Tops $1bn Revenue in 2024 Financial Year

By Adedapo Adesanya
Africa Finance Corporation (AFC), the continent’s top infrastructure solutions provider, has announced its strongest financial performance to date, with total revenue for the year ended December 31, 2024 surpassing $ 1 billion for the first time in its history.
This record performance marks a significant milestone in AFC’s mission to close Africa’s infrastructure gap through scalable, de-risked investments that attract global capital and deliver tangible development outcomes.
The corporation posted a 22.8 per cent increase in total revenue to US$1.1 billion and a 22.3 per cent rise in total comprehensive income to $400 million, up from $327 million in 2023.
AFC’s earnings growth was driven by improved asset yields, prudent cost-of-funds management and sustained traction in advisory mandates.
Further significant financial highlights include net interest income up 42.5 per cent to $ 613.6 million; fee and commission income rose to $109 million, the highest in over five years; operating income climbed 42.7 per cent to $709.7 million; total assets reached a record $14.4 billion, a 16.7 per cent year-on-year increase; liquidity coverage ratio strengthened to 194 per cent, providing over 34 months of cover; and cost-to-income ratio improved to 17.3 per cent from 19.6 per cent in 2023.
According to a statement, AFC said throughout 2024 it continued to scale its impact by mobilising capital for landmark projects across energy, transport, and natural resources.
These included the Lobito Corridor – a cross-border railway development spanning Angola, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), and Zambia. AFC led the initiative to secure a concession agreement within one year of the initial Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), an unprecedented achievement for a project of its scale. In the DRC, AFC also invested $150 million in the Kamoa-Kakula Copper Complex, Africa’s largest copper producer and one of the most sustainable globally, thanks to its high-grade ore and renewable-powered smelter.
Other milestones transactions included financing support for the commissioning of the Dangote Refinery, the largest in Africa, and continued progress on AFC-backed Infinity Power Holding’s 10 GW clean energy ambition, with power purchase agreements secured in Egypt and South Africa.
AFC also invested in the 15GW Xlinks Morocco-UK Power Project, providing $14.1 million to support early-stage development of a transcontinental renewable energy pipeline between North Africa and Europe.
AFC strengthened its capital base and expanded its investor network through several landmark funding initiatives. These included a $ 1.16 billion syndicated loan – the largest in its history, a $500 million perpetual hybrid bond issue, and the successful execution of Nigeria’s first-ever domestic dollar bond, which raised $900 million at 180 per cent oversubscription.
AFC also returned to the Islamic finance market after eight years, closing a $400 million Shariah-compliant facility.
The year also saw strong momentum in equity mobilisation, with $181.8 million in new capital raised from ten institutional investors. These included Turk Eximbank – AFC’s first non-African sovereign shareholder – the Arab Bank for Economic Development in Africa (BADEA), and several major pension funds spanning Cameroon, Seychelles, Mauritius, and South Africa. Ratings agencies affirmed AFC’s robust credit profile, with AAA ratings from S&P Global (China) and China Chengxin International, and a stable A3 Outlook from Moody’s.
Speaking on the result, Ms Samaila Zubairu, President & CEO of AFC said, “These results send a clear message that strategic investment in African infrastructure creates lasting value for both beneficiaries and investors.”
“In 2024, we exceeded the billion-dollar revenue mark, delivered game-changing projects, and reinforced our financial resilience—demonstrating the scalability of our unique model that blends purpose with performance to accelerate Africa’s economic transformation,” she added.
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