World
Russia’s Engagement in Africa Requires In-depth Study
Kestér Kenn Klomegâh
Within the current geopolitical changes, Africa is experiencing sharp disintegration characterized by differences in political systems, economic structures and cultural norms in member countries. Unfortunately, military takeovers have become a distinctive feature (or accepted form) of regime change, particularly in West Africa. For instance, the Africa Governance Report 2023 focuses on unconstitutional changes of government in Africa.
The 35th Ordinary Session of African Leaders Summit, held in February 2022, urged leaders to deploy concerted efforts in promoting democracy and good governance, including upholding term limits, as per their respective constitutions. The Accra Forum II also underscored the commitment to facilitate the consolidation of constitutionalism in Africa through stakeholder engagement.
The Malabo, Equatorial Guinea, summit declaration (April 2022) further urges the African Union (AU) Member States, the Peace and Security Council (PSC) of the AU and the Regional Economic Communities especially ECOWAS, to strictly adhere to what was referred to as the Lomé Declaration and the Johannesburg Declaration on ‘Silencing the Guns’ in Africa, adopted at the 14th Extraordinary Session on 6 December 2020.
The declaration warned external partners collaborating and supporting military governments to hold onto political power. Given the case of and with particular reference to Russia, it condemned external interference in peace and security matters in Africa. In addition, African leaders have expressed grave concern over the resurgence of military takeovers and further urged the adoption of serious measures to intensify efforts at addressing the root causes of coup d’etats.
In this interview, Samir Bhattacharya, an Associate Fellow at Observer Research Foundation (ORF), where he works on geopolitics with particular reference to Africa in the changing global order, says Africa has witnessed six military takeovers since 2022, with several abortive coups, sanctions on the military juntas have been lifted but generally the French-speaking West African countries continue to face multiple democratic challenges with a wider negative impact across the region. Here are the interview excerpts:
To begin with, what are your arguments that Russia supports military coup makers (Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger et cetera) in Africa?
It is true that the Russian Private Military Company (PMC) Wagner Group provided political advice to many African leaders throughout the continent, particularly in Sudan, and had offered military support to weak authoritarian governments in nations like Mali and Libya, primarily to combat extremist organizations and insurgencies. The Western experts also emphasized how Russia frequently portrays Africa as a victim of neocolonialism and how it often supports or forms partnerships with autocrats who usually advance anti-Western regimes.
For instance, the Niger coup occurred precisely during the time Russian President Vladimir Putin was in Saint Petersburg receiving the Heads of State and ministries from Africa. There are no coincidences in politics. The president of Ukraine’s advisor, Mykhailo Podolyak, was prompted by this to openly accuse Russia of masterminding the coup. Suspicion was aroused by the coup’s timing as well as the Russian flags being flown in the streets in the days that followed.
The narrative that depicts Russia as a proactive coup advocate is compelling and seems to hold water. Nevertheless, it is based on unsubstantiated hypotheses and ignores what Russia has done to help the junta leaders in the nations where it has started to contribute. Naturally, there are claims of human rights violations followed by denials. Nobody has, however, attempted to investigate if the Wagner group attempted to impose a Russian model of governance on these junta officials.
Wagner most likely wants to promote an African style of governance by demonstrating that it is not interfering in any way beyond its duty as a security provider. My point here is that we need to study Wagner in more detail before parroting what some Western media people are repeating.
Russia is seemingly interested in military governance in Africa. Does that set the precedence for future military takeovers in Africa?
Indeed, Western observers continue to be upset by Moscow’s relative popularity in coup-hit Africa. Most African scholars from North America or Europe indeed seem emphatic that not only does Russia support military coup makers, but a greater Russian engagement would also lead to more coups across the continent. Regretfully, there is hardly any empirical evidence to support these general statements. Therefore, it’s crucial to pay attention to what is happening on the ground rather than succumbing to their narratives and attempting to formulate morally sound responses in support of these arguments.
Do transitions from democratic governance to military governments have meaning for fighting growing trends of neo-colonialism in Africa?
Coups can spread quickly. Many observers warned about Burkina Faso when Mali collapsed, and many predicted that Niger would follow when Burkina fell.
Frustration over the government’s inability to put an end to terrorism and other instability in the Sahel region is the driving force behind all of these coups. Russia seems to appeal to a lot of African sentiment when it attempts to position itself as an anti-colonial power.
However, it would be overly generalizing to attribute the coup to neo-colonialism alone. With eight coups in three years, the Sahel region in West Africa is most affected by coups. However, a close examination reveals that the Sahel Region has endured violent extremism, civil unrest, and poor governance for a very long period. It unmistakably shows how France and other Western powers are losing ground in this region. Frustration with France and other foreign powers increased fairly naturally as their military intervention failed to stem the Islamist insurgency that was spreading throughout the region.
Therefore, the West cannot address the issue merely by blaming Russia. And Russia cannot blame only neocolonialism. I am afraid as many African nations continue to be beset by widespread complaints of poor governance, nepotism, and distress, many more within the region and beyond may eventually see military takeovers of a similar nature.
Despite the above narratives, do you think ECOWAS, the 15-member regional economic bloc, must be firm with the ‘Silence-the-Guns’ policy adopted several years ago by the African Union?
The African Union has presented its flagship project, “Silence the Guns by 2030,” which is also an essential component of “Africa’s Vision 2063,” to establish an Africa free of conflicts. However, following the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, African leaders decided to concentrate more on other concerns, like the security of food and energy. As a consequence, the 2020 deadline for “Silencing the Guns” has finally been moved to 2030.
And ECOWAS, one of the earliest regional organizations, must take the initiative and maintain its resolve. But it must demonstrate that it is capable of acting. Its image has been tarnished during the recent coup in Niger when the ECOWAS threatened the Junta government with military action in favour of a return to the democratic government before reversing course. Furthermore, claims have been made that France controls ECOWAS. In light of the circumstances, ECOWAS needs to take action in the interest of the continent and restore its reputation as a powerful regional organization.
A research report from the South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA) describes Russia as ‘a virtual investor’ in Africa, most of its pledges largely aimed at luring (woo-ing) African states and leaders to support its ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine. What are your expert arguments here?
I have not read the report. However, the “African agency” is the most prominent victim in the narrative outlined above. It presents Russia as an all-powerful force that supports the overthrow of elected governments, many of which have the backing of the West and seeks to woo or persuade its allies into following its lead or “corrupting” them in the process.
Russia has not been in Africa for nearly thirty years, ever since the fall of the Soviet Union. When Russia hosted the first Russia-Africa Summit in 2019, many people believed it would only add to the already many Africa+1 conferences without offering anything new. However, the pace at which Russia is gaining ground in Africa has startled Western academics. Russia has been more politically and economically involved in Africa in recent years. But in this particular case, one private military group—the Wagner Group, as we all know it—has spearheaded the most successful kind of engagement on behalf of Russia, as opposed to a government-to-government or business-to-business model.
Since late 2017, Wagner’s military presence in Africa has increased significantly. Troops have been stationed in Sudan, Libya, Mali, Mozambique, Burkina Faso, and Mali, and the company is actively seeking to expand into several more states. Nevertheless, it still cannot compete with China, the US, or the EU in terms of physical infrastructure.
In practical terms and compared to China, do you think Russia has made a visible impact on infrastructure development in the continent since the collapse of the Soviet era in 1991?
Africa currently has a $12 billion trade deficit with Russia because it imports five times as much as it exports. President Putin vowed to boost Russia’s trade with Africa from approximately $16.8 billion to $40 billion yearly in five years following the 2019 Russia-Africa Summit.
Currently, it remains stagnant at roughly $18 billion each year, representing 2% of the total trade on the continent. Furthermore, two-thirds of Russia’s overall trade with Africa is confined to merely four countries. They are Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, and South Africa.
On the other hand, China is Africa’s largest trading partner for 15 consecutive years. South Africa is China’s largest trading partner among all African economies, accounting for 19.9 per cent of total trade with the continent, followed by Nigeria and Angola. China’s total trade with Africa grew by 1.5 per cent in 2023 from 2022 to $282.1 billion. Chinese exports to Africa reached $173 billion, an increase of 7.5 per cent over 2022, while its imports from the continent dropped by 6.7 per cent to $109 billion. While the $100 million year-on-year increase made 2023 bilateral trade a record, Africa’s trade deficit with China continued to expand, from $46.9 billion in 2022 to $64 billion in 2023. Comparing Russia with China would not be logical.
Can we conclude this discussion with the significance of peace, justice and strong state institutions (UN SDG 16), what has been achieved over the past few years, the challenges and the way forward in West Africa?
Recently, a very significant event took place in West Africa. Three junta-led governments—Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger—decided to leave ECOWAS and establish the “Alliance of Sahel States,” a mini-lateral regional organization, in response to the organization’s threat of military action. It’s being referred to as the “Brexit of Africa” by many, and it might have disastrous repercussions in the neighbouring countries. In response, ECOWAS chose to lift these nations’ economic sanctions. However, maybe it is too little, too late. The United Nations will have a tough time in its quest for SDG-16 in the Sahel.
By Kestér Kenn Klomegâh
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has announced the retirement of its director of the African department, Abebe Aemro Selassie, on May 1, 2026. Since his appointment in 2016, Abebe Selassie has served in this position for a decade. During his tenure, IMF added a 25th chair to its Executive Board, increasing the voice of sub-Saharan Africa.
As a director for Africa, he has overseen the IMF’s engagement with 45 countries across sub-Saharan Africa. Abebe and his team work closely with the region’s leaders and policymakers to improve economic and development outcomes. This includes oversight of the IMF’s intensified engagement with the region in recent years, including some $60 billion in financial support the institution has provided to countries since 2020. Reports indicated that under his leadership, his department generally reinforces the organization’s role as a trusted partner to many African countries.
Abebe Selassie has worked with both the regional economic blocs and the African Union (AU) as well as individual African states. The key focus has been the strategic articulation of Africa’s development priorities in reshaping economic governance, mobilizing sustainable investments, and addressing systemic financial challenges.
It is important noting that the IMF has funded diverse infrastructure projects that facilitated either export-led growth or import substitution industrialization models of development. Further to that, African states have also made numerous loans and benefited from much-needed debt relief.
Summarizing the IMF’s key focus areas, among others, for Africa: (i) reforming the global financial architecture in an effort to improve the structure, institutions, rules, and processes that govern international finance in order to make the global economy more stable, equitable, and resilient.
Concessional financing to counter rising borrowing costs, with Africa paying up to 5 times more in interest than advanced economies (AfDB, 2023). Fair representation, pushing for IMF quota reforms to reflect Africa’s $3.4 trillion collective GDP—yet the continent holds less than 5% of voting shares in Bretton Woods institutions.
(ii) Unlocking Investments for Jobs and Sustainable Growth. With Africa’s working-age population set to double to 1 billion by 2050, the African states spotlight: The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), projected to boost intra-African trade by 52% and create 30 million jobs by 2035 (World Bank, 2024). Infrastructure partnerships, targeting sectors such as renewable energy, where Africa receives only 2% of global clean energy investments despite its vast solar and wind potential (IEA, 2024).
(iii) Climate Finance and Debt Relief for Resilience: Africa contributes less than 4% of global emissions but bears the brunt of climate shocks, losing 5–15% of GDP per capita to climate-related disasters annually (African Development Bank, 2024). These are strictly in alignment with Agenda 2063’s aspirations for inclusive growth, maximizing multilateral cooperation and enhancing global engagement with the continent.
“I am deeply grateful for Abe’s visionary leadership, dedication to the Fund’s mission, and unwavering commitment to the members in the region,” Ms. Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). “The legacy he leaves on the Fund’s work in Africa is one of alignment with the aspirations of people, especially the youth, for good governance, strong economies and lasting prosperity. His trusted advice has been invaluable to me personally, and his leadership has strengthened our mission.”
“A national of Ethiopia, Selassie first joined the IMF in 1994. Over his remarkable 32-year career, he held senior positions including Deputy Director in AFR, Mission Chief for Portugal and South Africa, Division Chief of the Regional Studies Division, and Senior Resident Representative in Uganda. Earlier, he contributed to programs in Turkey, Thailand, Romania, and Estonia, and worked on policy, operational review, and economic research.”
Under his ten-year leadership and as director of the African Department (AFR), Abebe Selassie helped to reinforce the Fund’s role as a trusted partner with sub-Saharan African members. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is an international organization that promotes global economic growth and financial stability, encourages international trade, and reduces poverty.
By Kestér Kenn Klomegâh
Squeezed between import substitution and dependency syndrome, a condition characterized by a set of associated economic symptoms—that is rules and regulations—majority of African countries are shifting from United States and Europe to an incoherent alternative bilateral partnerships with Russia, China and the Global South.
By forging new partnerships, for instance with Russia, these African countries rather create conspicuous economic dependency at the expense of strengthening their own local production, attainable by supporting local farmers under state budget. Import-centric partnership ties and lack of diversification make these African countries committed to import-dependent structures. It invariably compounds domestic production challenges. Needless to say that Africa has huge arable land and human resources to ensure food security.
A classical example that readily comes to mind is Ghana, and other West African countries. With rapidly accelerating economic policy, Ghana’s President John Dramani Mahama ordered the suspension of U.S. chicken and agricultural products, reaffirming swift measures for transforming local agriculture considered as grounds for ensuring sustainable food security and economic growth and, simultaneously, for driving job creation.
President John Dramani Mahama, in early December 2025, while observing Agricultural Day, urged Ghanaians to take up farming, highlighting the guarantee and state support needed for affordable credit and modern tools to boost food security. According to Mahama, Ghana spends $3bn yearly on basic food imports from abroad.
The government decision highlights the importance of leveraging unto local agriculture technology and innovation. Creating opportunities to unlock the full potential of depending on available resources within the new transformative policy strategy which aims at boosting local productivity. President John Dramani Mahama’s special initiatives are the 24-Hour Economy and the Big Push Agenda. One of the pillars focuses on Grow 24 – modernising agriculture.
Despite remarkable commendations for new set of economic recovery, Ghana’s demand for agricultural products is still high, and this time making a smooth shift to Russia whose poultry meat and wheat currently became the main driver of exports to African countries. And Ghana, noticeably, accepts large quantity (tonnes) of poultry from Russia’s Rostov region into the country, according to several media reports. The supplies include grains, but also vegetable oils, meat and dairy products, fish and finished food products have significant potential for Africa.
The Agriculture Ministry’s Agroexport Department acknowledges Russia exports chicken to Ghana, with Ghanaian importers sourcing Russian poultry products, especially frozen cuts, to meet significant local demand that far outstrips domestic production, even after Ghana lifted a temporary 2020 avian flu-related ban on Russian poultry.
Moreover, monitoring and basic research indicated Russian producers are actively increasing poultry exports to various African countries, thus boosting trade, although Ghana still struggles to balance imports with local industry needs.
A few details indicate the following:
Trade Resumed: Ghana has lifted its ban on Russian poultry imports since April 2021, allowing poultry trade to resume. Russian regions have, thus far, consistently exported these poultry meat and products into the country under regulatory but flexible import rules on a negotiated bilateral agreement.
Significant Market: In any case, Ghana is a key African market for Russian poultry, with exports seeing substantial growth in recent years, alongside Angola, Benin, Cote d’Voire, Nigeria and Sierra Leone.
Demand-Driven: Ghana’s large gap between domestic poultry production and national demand necessitates significant imports, creating opportunities for foreign suppliers like Russia.
Major Exporters: Russia poultry companies are focused on increasing generally their African exports, with Ghana being a major destination. The basic question: to remain as import dependency or strive at attaining food sufficiency?
Product Focus: Exports typically include frozen chicken cuts (legs and meat) very vital for supplementing local supply. But as the geopolitical dynamics shift, Ghana and other importing African countries have to review partnerships, particularly with Russia.
Despite the fact that challenges persist, Russia strongly remains as a notable supplier to Ghana, even under the supervision of John Mahama’s administration, dealing as a friendly ally, both have the vision for multipolar trade architecture, ultimately fulfilling a critical role in meeting majority of African countries’ large consumer demand for poultry products, and with Russia’s trade actively expanding and Ghana’s preparedness to spend on such imports from the state budget.
Following two high-profile Russia–Africa summits, cooperation in the area of food security emerged as a key theme. Moscow pledged to boost agricultural exports to the continent—especially grain, poultry, and fertilisers—while African leaders welcomed the prospect of improved food supplies.
Nevertheless, do these African governments think of prioritising agricultural self-sufficiency. At a May 2025 meeting in St. Petersburg, Russia’s Economic Development Minister, Maxim Reshetnikov, underlined the fact that more than 40 Russian companies were keen to export animal products and agricultural goods to the African region.
Russia, eager to expand its economic footprint, sees large-scale agricultural exports as a key revenue generator. Estimates suggest the Russian government could earn over $15 billion annually from these agricultural exports to African continent.
Head of the Agroexport Federal Center, Ilya Ilyushin, speaking at the round table “Russia-Africa: A Strategic Partnership in Agriculture to Ensure Food Security,” which was held as part of the international conference on ensuring the food sovereignty of African countries in Addis Ababa (Ethiopia) on Nov. 21, 2025, said: “We see significant potential in expanding supplies of Russian agricultural products to Africa.”
Ilya Ilyushin, however, mentioned that the Agriculture Ministry’s Agroexport Department, and the Union of Grain Exporters and Producers, exported over 32,000 tonnes of wheat and barley to Egypt totaling nearly $8 million during the first half of 2025, Kenya totaling over $119 million.
Interfax media reports referred to African countries whose markets are of interest for Russian producers and exporters. Despite existing difficulties, supplies of livestock products are also growing, this includes poultry meat, Ilyushin said. Exports of agricultural products from Russia to African countries have more than doubled, and third quarter of 2025 reached almost $7 billion.
The key buyers of Russian grain on the continent are Egypt, Algeria, Kenya, Libya, Tunisia, Nigeria, Morocco, South Africa, Tanzania and Sudan, he said. According to him, Russia needs to expand the geography of supplies, increasing exports to other regions of the continent, increase supplies in West Africa to Benin, Cameroon, Ghana, Liberia and the French-speaking Sahelian States.
Nevertheless, Russian exporters have nothing to complain. Africa’s dependency dilemma still persists. Therefore, Russia to continue expanding food exports to Africa explicitly reflects a calculated economic and geopolitical strategy. In the end of the analysis, the debate plays out prominently and the primary message: Africa cannot and must not afford to sacrifice food sovereignty for colourful symbolism and geopolitical solidarity.
With the above analysis, Russian exporters show readiness to explore and shape actionable strategies for harnessing Africa’s consumer market, including that of Ghana, and further to strengthen economic and trade cooperation and support its dynamic vision for sustainable development in the context of multipolar friendship and solidarity.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Guinea’s military leader Mamady Doumbouya will fully transition to its democratic president after he was elected president of the West African nation.
The former special forces commander seized power in 2021, toppling then-President Alpha Conde, who had been in office since 2010.
Mr Doumbouya reportedly won 86.72 per cent of the election held on December 28, an absolute majority that allows him to avoid a runoff. He will hold the forte for the next seven years as law permits.
The Supreme Court has eight days to validate the results in the event of any challenge. However, this may not be so as ousted Conde and Mr Cellou Dalein Diallo, Guinea’s longtime opposition leader, are in exile.
The election saw Doumbouya face off a fragmented opposition of eight challengers.
One of the opposition candidates, Mr Faya Lansana Millimono claimed the election was marred by “systematic fraudulent practices” and that observers were prevented from monitoring the voting and counting processes.
Guinea is the world leader in bauxite and holds a very large gold reserve. The country is preparing to occupy a leading position in iron ore with the launch of the Simandou project in November, expected to become the world’s largest iron mine.
Mr Doumbouya has claimed credit for pushing the project forward and ensuring Guinea benefits from its output. He has also revoked the licence of Emirates Global Aluminium’s subsidiary Guinea Alumina Corporation following a refinery dispute, transferring the unit’s assets to a state-owned firm.
In September, rating agency, Standard & Poor’s (S&P), assigned an inaugural rating of “B+” with a “Stable” outlook to the Republic of Guinea.
This decision reflects the strength of the country’s economic fundamentals, strong growth prospects driven by the integrated mining and infrastructure Simandou project, and the rigor in public financial management.
As a result, Guinea is now above the continental average and makes it the third best-rated economy in West Africa.
According to S&P, between 2026 and 2028, Guinea could experience GDP growth of nearly 10 per cent per year, far exceeding the regional average.
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