World Food Prices Fall for Sixth Consecutive Month in September

By Adedapo Adesanya

The global food price index fell for the sixth month in a row in September, receding from all-time highs posted earlier this year after Russia invaded Ukraine in February.

The United Nations (UN), through the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), said on Friday that its price index, which tracks the most globally traded food commodities, averaged 136.3 points last month versus a revised 137.9 points for August.

The August figure was previously put at 138.0 points.

The index has fallen from a record of 159.7 in March. The September reading was, however, 5.5 per cent higher than a year earlier.

The latest drop was driven by a 6.6 per cent month-on-month fall in vegetable oil prices, with increased supplies and lower crude oil prices contributing to the decline.

Sugar, dairy, and meat prices slipped by less than one percentage point, relieving inflationary pressures.

By contrast, FAO’s cereal price index rose 1.5 per cent month-on-month in September, with wheat prices climbing 2.2 per cent because of concerns over dry crop conditions in Argentina and the United States, strong EU exports and heightened uncertainty over access to Ukrainian Black Sea ports beyond November.

Rice prices rose 2.2 per cent, partly because of worries over the impact of recent severe flooding in Pakistan.

In separate cereal supply and demand estimates, FAO lowered its forecast for global cereal production in 2022 to 2.768 billion tonnes from a previous 2.774 billion tonnes.

That is 1.7 per cent below the estimated output for 2021.

“A lower global coarse grain production forecast makes up the bulk of this month’s overall cutback, as adverse weather continued to curb yield prospects in major producing countries,” FAO said.

World cereal use in 2022/23 is expected to surpass production at 2.784 million tonnes, leading to a projected 1.6 per cent fall in global stocks compared with 2021/22 to 848 million tonnes.

That would represent a stocks-to-use ratio of 29.7 per cent, down from 31.0 per cent in 2021/22 but still relatively high historically, FAO said.

The Rome-based agency said 45 countries, including 33 in Africa, nine in Asia, two in Latin America and the Caribbean, and one in Europe, “are in need of external assistance for food”.

The UN warned in September that more than one million people are at risk of famine and death without humanitarian aid.