Economy
Nigeria May Begin to Borrow to Service Debts by 2025—Paul Alaje
By Dipo Olowookere
A renowned economist and Partner at SPM Professional, Mr Paul Alaje, has warned that the debt profile of Nigeria may continue to rise, with the nation not making enough to service it, and resorting to borrowing to pay interests on the borrowings.
He said this when he appeared as a guest on Arise Television’s breakfast programme, The Morning Show, on Monday, January 8, 2024.
Business Post reports that in December 2023, the Debt Management Office (DMO) said Nigeria’s total public debt stock was 87.91 trillion in the third quarter of last year.
It was also reported by this newspaper that after the approval of the securitisation of the N7.5 trillion ways and means by the National Assembly, the debt profile of the country could rise to N95 trillion.
Speaking on Arise TV today, Mr Alaje charged the government of Mr Bola Tinubu to look for innovative ways to generate more revenue for the country, especially from the solid minerals sector, tasking the federal government to slow down its appetite for borrowing and improve its revenue.
“The truth is that, by 2025, we will have to borrow to service debt. What does that mean? We will still put our revenue projection but by the end of 2025, when the 2026 budget is presented, we may need to borrow to service debt, I hope this will not be the situation because it is not a good projection.
“Unfortunately, if we don’t depart from the current situation, this may be where we find ourselves,” he said on the show monitored by Business Post.
Speaking further, he said, “You ask whether the 2024 budget inspires hope and by our training and the oath we swore, it is not for me to say yes or no but there are things we need to look at in the budget to arrive at an answer.
“Nigeria is expected to grow between 7 and 12 per cent gross domestic product (GDP) if we want to be at par with other nations. The budget has said we should grow by over 3 per cent; the inflation, according to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is expected to be 6 to 9 per cent, but this budget said 21 per cent this year perhaps because it is the first budget of President Tinubu. This budget is already telling us that things are going to be tough, that is the price of commodities you bought in 2023 will increase by an average of 21 per cent in 2024.
“Most importantly, Mr President spoke on the human development index and he said it is the key area he is focusing but let’s zoom on it a little. We are expected to invest between 20 and 25 per cent of our annual budget but when you see what went into education, we are doing less than 6 per cent instead of 15 to 25 per cent.
“Let’s look at health, which should be 15 per cent based on the Abuja Accord but the 2024 budget is doing less than that. Are these inspiring as you asked me earlier? I want to believe his next budget would be better.
“I hope the budget deficit does not increase times two because we have N8 trillion proposed deficit in 2024 but that may rise to about N12 trillion or double. Just write this down and keep it to around November or December when you will see a supplementary budget without revenue expectation as we have done in the last 12 years.
“You should start to see pressure from the end of the first quarter when the government compares its revenue expectations with the actual earnings; there will be a mismatch because fundamentally, there is a need for an adjustment that has not been done,” he stated.
By Dipo Olowookere
Last week on the floor of the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited, 57 equities appreciated, higher than 44 equities in the previous week, while 38 equities shed weight versus 35 equities in the preceding week, with 51 equities closing flat versus the 67 equities recorded a week earlier.
UPDC REIT chalked up 33.33 per cent to trade at N14.20, First Holdco gained 25.59 per cent to finish at N120.50, Unilever Nigeria rose by 19.31 per cent to N147.95, Cadbury Nigeria improved by 18.42 per cent to N67.50, and AXA Mansard expanded by 17.86 per cent to N13.20.
On the flip side, Mecure lost 26.97 per cent to N62.40, Royal Exchange shrank by 12.84 per cent to N1.29, Tripple Gee slumped by 12.34 per cent to N3.41, SUNU Assurances crumbled by 10.00 per cent to N3.60, and BUA Foods dropped 10.00 per cent to close at N845.10.
In the week, the All-Share Index (ASI) went up 1.60 per cent to 247,357.40 points, and the market capitalisation appreciated by 1.61 per cent to N159.588 trillion.
Similarly, all other indices finished higher with the exception of the consumer goods, Lotus II, growth, sovereign bond and commodity indices, which fell by 3.76 per cent, 1.55 per cent, 20.24 per cent, 0.14 per cent, and 1.25 per cent respectively.
As for the trading data, 4.433 billion shares worth N306.143 billion in 255,589 deals were transacted in five days versus the 2.819 billion shares valued at N182.499 billion traded in 226,729 deals in the previous week.
The financial services segment led the activity chart with 3.422 billion shares valued at N207.206 billion traded in 117,545 deals, contributing 77.18 per cent and 67.68 per cent to the total trading volume and value, respectively.
The consumer goods sector traded 201.978 million shares worth N17.171 billion in 28,666 deals, and the ICT industry posted a turnover of 169.481 million shares worth N21.194 billion in 23,107 deals.
First Holdco, Access Holdings, and GTCO accounted for 2.151 billion shares worth N170.793 billion in 44,768 deals, contributing 48.51 per cent and 55.79 per cent to the total trading volume and value, respectively.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Nigeria’s crude oil exports to the United States rebounded strongly in May as shipments rose by nearly 150 per cent month-on-month as American refiners increased purchases of overseas crude.
Latest data from the US Census Bureau showed that crude imports from Nigeria climbed to 2.36 million barrels in May, compared with 946,000 barrels recorded in April.
This indicated renewed demand for Nigeria’s premium light sweet grades amid shifting global patterns and higher international oil prices as the Middle East disruption weighed on trade.
The value of the imports also rose sharply to $279.8 million, up from $85.2 million in the previous month, reflecting both the higher volume of purchases and stronger crude oil prices during the period.
The rebound coincided with a broader increase in crude oil imports by the US.
According to the latest US International Trade in Goods and Services Report, total US crude imports increased by $1.5 billion in May, making crude oil one of the largest contributors to the $12.3 billion rise in overall goods imports during the month.
The report also showed that imports of industrial supplies and materials increased by $3.1 billion, with crude oil accounting for nearly half of the increase.
The recovery marks a significant turnaround after two consecutive months of declining Nigerian crude shipments to the US market. Export volumes had fallen from 4.64 million barrels in February to 1.54 million barrels in March, before dropping further to 946,000 barrels in April.
Despite the fluctuations, cumulative exports between January and May 2026 reached 11.15 million barrels, valued at approximately $926.6 million, reaffirming Nigeria’s strategic position as a key supplier of premium low-sulphur crude grades to the world’s largest economy.
Concerns surrounding crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s busiest oil transit routes, are encouraging refiners to increase purchases from Atlantic Basin producers such as Nigeria, whose crude grades offer lower geopolitical shipping risks than some Middle Eastern supplies.
Nigeria’s flagship crude grades, including Bonny Light, Qua Iboe and Escravos, remain highly sought after by US Gulf Coast refiners because of their low sulphur content and high yields of premium petroleum products such as petrol, diesel and aviation fuel.
Although the US has emerged as one of the world’s largest crude oil producers following the shale revolution, many American refineries continue to import light sweet crude to complement domestic production and optimise refining operations.
The rebound in exports also comes as Nigeria gradually restores crude production following improved security operations in the Niger Delta and intensified efforts by government agencies and operators to curb crude oil theft, pipeline vandalism and illegal refining.
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Group Plc has impressed its shareholders with a sterling performance in the first half of 2026, declaring an interim dividend of N1.30.
This was as the organisation grew its revenue for the period by 118 per cent to N17.60 billion from N8.08 billion in the corresponding period of 2025, driven by strong market activity, operating leverage and increased contribution from investee companies.
Analysis of the financial statements of the firm showed that transaction fees rose by 169 per cent to N13.34 billion from N4.96 billion, listing fees increased by 59 per cent to N2.38 billion, and technology income rose by 19 per cent to N447.86 million.
Further, operating profit increased by 155 per cent to N10.62 billion from N4.16 billion, reflecting strong operating leverage, as growth in income significantly outpaced the increase in operating expenses.
In the first six months of this year, the share of profit from equity-accounted investees soared by 130 per cent to N4.14 billion as a result of the strong performance of Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc.
Consequently, profit before tax jumped by 170 per cent to N14.76 billion from N5.46 billion in H1 2025, while profit after tax surged by 146 per cent to N10.36 billion from N4.22 billion in the prior-year period.
It was observed that the company’s balance sheet remained robust, with total assets up to N75.87 billion as of June 30, 2026, while shareholders’ equity increased to N60.49 billion from N55.20 billion at the end of 2025.
The chairman of NGX Group, Mr Umaru Kwairanga, while commenting on the results and cash reward, said, “The board’s approval of an interim dividend of N1.30 per share reflects the strength of NGX Group’s first-half performance and our confidence in the group’s long-term prospects.
“We are encouraged by the significant growth recorded across the business and by the increasing contribution of companies within the group’s investment portfolio.
“The board remains committed to balancing attractive returns to shareholders with continued investment in the infrastructure, technology and strategic initiatives required to deepen Nigeria’s capital market and position NGX Group for sustainable growth.”
Also commenting, the chief executive, Mr Temi Popoola, said, “Our first-half results demonstrate the strength and scalability of NGX Group’s business model. Revenue growth was supported by significantly higher transaction activity, increased listing income and stronger contributions from our investee companies, while disciplined execution enabled us to translate this growth into substantially improved profitability.
“We remain focused on sustaining this momentum by deepening market liquidity, expanding investor participation, accelerating the development of technology-enabled products and building a more diversified financial market infrastructure group. The N1.30 interim dividend reflects both the progress made and our confidence in the Group’s capacity to deliver sustainable long-term value.”
