Feature/OPED
Candidates from Djibouti, Kenya, Madagascar and Mauritius Contesting for AUC Chairperson’s Position
By Professor Maurice Okoli and Dr Ken Onyeali Ikpe
The African Union Chairperson is an important position within the African Union. The Chairperson serves as the head of the (AU) African Union elected by the assembly of heads of state and government. As the African Union stands at a crossroads and a critical juncture, effective leadership is essential for addressing the myriad challenges facing the African continent.
After several months of conscientious search for potential contestants to take over the African Union Commission chairperson’s position, which expires next February 2025, four (4) candidates have emerged representing Djibouti, Kenya, Madagascar and Mauritius.
With these candidates already confirmed following the deadline set for submission of applications and all the necessary supporting documents, four senior African politicians are engaged in an intensive campaign and strategic lobbying across Africa. The deadline for candidacies closed on August 6, at the African Union, which is headquartered in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
The African Union, a continental organization consisting of 55 African Member States, is scheduled to hold elections at its summit in February 2025 to choose a successor to Moussa Faki Mahamat, chairperson of the African Union Commission. The election is conducted by secret ballot, and the winner must secure a majority of two-thirds of the vote among eligible member states.
According to the stipulated guidelines, the chairperson of the African Union Commission (AUC) is the chief executive officer who exercises administrative, legal, and financial functions. It also includes pursuing a leadership role in delivering the continental vision of an integrated transformative economy, consistently working for a prosperous and peaceful Africa. The current geopolitical situation requires engaging in beneficial relations with external development partners for the continent.
Considered Africa’s economic engine since its establishment as OAU and later transformed into AU, the head of the AUC, which is an executive body, is elected on a rotational basis between the regions of the continent for every four years and the elected chairperson can be re-elected for two terms as incorporated in the constitution. Africa has five distinctive regions: northern, western, central, southern and eastern. Quite apart from regional origin, the candidates are required to have serious educational qualifications and, most importantly, experience to handle effectively the multiple tasks as the chairperson of the AUC. (See AU report: African Union Commission Elections 2025).
Contesting Candidates
From preliminary research and monitoring, the central, western, and southern regions of Africa have already served as chairpersons, this implies it is the turn of southern and eastern candidates of Africa. Concretely, it therefore includes Comoros, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Madagascar, Mauritius, Rwanda, Seychelles, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Tanzania, and Uganda. These countries can now, by geographical definition, produce candidates for the position of chairperson. One of the basic key criteria is the candidate must be a former president, former prime minister, or former foreign minister to take up the job which mostly includes the undertaking of “measures aimed at promoting and popularizing the objectives of the Union” and the execution of “such other functions as may be determined by the Assembly or the Executive Council.”
According to an African Union report, in early August 2024, the four confirmed candidates for this top AUC position, and to ultimately take over from the current chairperson Moussa Faki Mahamat, are Mahamoud Ali Youssouf of Djibouti, Raila Odinga of Kenya, Richard Randriamandrato of Madagascar and Anil Gayan of Mauritius.
(i) Raila Odinga is a veteran Kenyan opposition leader, who now at 79, has tried and failed five times to become president, most recently losing the 2022 election to William Ruto. Odinga spent his years in politics, fighting for democracy during the autocratic rule of President Daniel Arap Moi. “We are focused on bringing the seat home for Kenya and serving the African people,” Odinga said on X while announcing his formal candidacy.
A media report released in March 2024, titled “Museveni Endorses Raila Odinga’s AU Chairperson Bid” and circulated in the East African region showed the publicity campaign and erratic steps at promoting Kenyan Raila Odinga to take over as Chairman of the AU Commission. Interestingly, Raila Odinga, Kenya’s opposition leader, has readily accepted Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni’s endorsement of his candidacy for African Union Commission chairperson.
In a flagship statement posted via his social media platforms, Odinga said Museveni endorsed him during a joint meeting with President William Ruto. The Azimio alliance’s leader stated that the joint meeting with President Museveni and President Ruto was organized at the Ugandan president’s invitation. Odinga has an unmistakable political influence. Born into a modest political family and grew up in politics. His profound perspectives suggest he operates as a pivotal figure within power dynamics and his decision-making capacity is perceived as absolute pragmatic. Odinga, most observers say, possesses an assertive leadership style and always expresses steadfast interest in the complexity of a development-oriented society. These leadership skills echo his deep-seated affection for a genuine communal, regional, and continental tradition. Odinga as a suitable candidate underscores the perfect choice to embrace and settle for the best administrator for Africa.
(ii) Richard Mahitsison Randriamandrato studied in Paris, France. Randriamandrato was Madagascar’s foreign minister from March to October 2022 but was fired after voting at the United Nations to condemn Russia’s annexations of four Ukrainian regions. Madagascar has followed a non-aligned position on the war in Ukraine. He is a prominent Malagasy politician known for his role in the government of Madagascar.
He served also as a minister of economy and finance from 2019 until 2021 where he focused on economic policies aimed at stabilizing and developing Madagascar’s economy. Beyond his ministerial roles, he has been involved in strategic foresight and economic intelligence advising on regional infrastructure and development projects.
(iii) Anil Gayan, 76, served as foreign minister of the Indian Ocean island nation of Mauritius between 1983 and 1986, and again from 2000 to 2003. After this, he has since held other posts including at the tourism and health ministries. His biography says Anil Gayan’s ancestors migrated from India when the island was a British colony. He studied law at the London School of Economics and the University of London until 1974. As a politician, he formed a political group called FNM (Front National Mauricien) in 2009. Along the line, in 2008, he was part of United Nations mediation in Guinea-Bissau. Gayan also led a 20-member African Union group of observers during the 2010 Rwanda elections.
(iv) Mahamoud Ali Youssouf, in April 2024, was nominated by Djibouti for the position of chairperson. His biography says that between 1985 and 1990, he studied foreign languages at the Lumière University Lyon and then studied business management at the University of Liverpool in the United Kingdom. He was, however, unsuccessful with his thesis at the Université libre de Bruxelles, Belgium.
Nevertheless, as a staunch politician, Youssouf believes that although Djibouti is a small country with a sizable port, his government hopes to develop its economy along the same lines as Dubai. Its strategic location serves as a conduit to the whole world. “I am the only candidate capable of bridging the gap between the different regions of Africa, being French-speaking, but also English-speaking and Arabic-speaking,” said Djibouti’s Youssouf, the 58-year-old has been the foreign minister of the tiny but strategic Horn of Africa nation since 2005. “My primary objective if I am elected is to silence the guns” on the continent, he told AFP in an interview in July.
Employment Implications
Bridging the gap between different regions implies that this AUC leadership will address the development dynamics in the continent. That further emphasizes creating a conducive environment and atmosphere for potential external investors and stakeholders within the geopolitical parameters, a mixed economy, speeding up the most industrialization processes, and working towards technological advancement in Africa. (See African Leaders Extraordinary Summit report, Feb. 2024)
Noticeably the republics of Burkina Faso, Chad, Niger and Mali have established governments, accused their previous political leaders of manipulation by external powers, economic under-developments and the deepening instability (that is un-quantify-able failure to stem the Islamist insurgency) in the Sahel-Saharan region, an elongated landlocked territory located between North Africa (Maghreb) and West Africa, to the Atlantic coast of West Africa.
During a series of summits, conferences and meetings that proliferated these years, the AUC reiterated the continuing growth of multiple democratic challenges with a wider negative impact across the continent and particularly itemized military takeovers that have become a distinctive feature (or accepted norm) of regime change in West Africa. Some experts pointed to the rising neo-colonial tendencies perpetrated by the former colonies and their indiscriminate scramble for resources on the continent. In addition, there are also overarching narratives of growing crisis and explicit signs of weaknesses on the side of regional economic blocs in the continent, to say the least, and appropriately under the direct confines of the African Union.
Researchers have reminded the African Union and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) to invoke the African Convention for the Elimination of Mercenary, which went into effect in 1985, prohibiting states from allowing mercenaries into their territories. The researcher further called for addressing promptly ‘malign influences’ and ‘political manipulations’, and bringing back the well-designed legislative measure broadly worded by the Assembly of the African Union which adopted as a strategic document known as the “AU Master Roadmap (AUMR) of Practical Steps to Silencing the Guns in Africa” in 2017. (See African Union report, April 2017)
A peaceful continent is possible. This aspiration inspired the ‘Silencing the Guns in Africa’ agenda, a flagship initiative of the AU Agenda 2063 that aspires to end all wars, conflict and gender-based violence, and to prevent genocide. As a long-standing partner, the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), for instance, has seriously recommitted its partnerships and opportunities to further the Silencing the Guns agenda as a necessary condition for Africa’s transformative development. This focuses on the people, prosperity and peace as a basis for its contributions to AU’s aspirations across Africa, according to the UNDP’s report re-issued in February 2022.
Professor Sergiu Mișcoiu at the Faculty of European Studies, Babes-Bolyai University in Cluj-Napoca (Romania), where he serves as a Director of the Centre for International Cooperation and as Director of the Centre for African Studies, noted in an article to Global Research, that African countries are bound to wake up to a common understanding of the true meaning of their colonial past for the present and determine their future existence. In fact, the leaders and the elites have to engage in development decision-making processes, and at the same time have to play their roles as autonomous actors instead of being pawns in global politics.
Mahamat’s Strengths and Weaknesses
In my view, analyzing most of the media reports and arguments, indicated this year the role is reserved for a representative from East Africa to replace Moussa Mahamat, a veteran politician from the Republic of Chad in West Africa, who has served two terms since 2017. Before taking up this position, he was the foreign minister of Chad. As the history of the procedures indicates, the elected chairperson becomes the head of the African Union Commission. Mahamat, born on 21 June 1960, was for the first time elected as the chairperson on 30 January 2017 but assumed office in March 2017. The chairperson is elected by the Assembly for a four-year term, renewable once. During his eight years of leadership, holding executive powers, needed internal structural reforms that have popularly been called for were not simply carried out, and a record of publicly announced accomplishments grossly lacked probity and transparent accountability.
Despite that as mentioned above, the African Union under Moussa Mahamat has made several achievements including raising the continental external relations profile and its ascension into the Group of Twenty (G20). In September 2023, Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India, chairing the G20 summit, the G20 nations agreed to grant the African Union permanent membership status in an appreciable move aimed at offering the continent a stronger voice on important questions and to uplift its unto the higher stage. In its final declaration in New Delhi, the G20 granted the African Union a full-fledged membership. The G20 consists of 19 countries and the European Union, making up about 85 per cent of the global GDP and two-thirds of the world’s population.
Under the administration of Moussa Mahamat, the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), the single continental market has the potential to unite an estimated 1.4 billion people in a $2.5 trillion economic bloc. The AfCFTA opens up more tremendous opportunities for both local African and foreign investors from around the world. It aims at making Africa the largest common market in the world and accelerating continental integration. It is expected to reinforce the measures taken in terms of the free movement of persons, goods, and services across borders. But much depends on the collective determination and solidarity demonstrated, to face the challenges in a united and resolute manner, by the African leaders. It depends on the strong mobilization of African leaders and the effective coordination provided by the African Union.
Essential Leadership Attitudes
In mid-July 2024, Business & Financial Times wrote that the candidates were discreetly campaigning for the top position. The B&FT media indicated further that, despite the general qualification being former foreign ministers, and in the case of Odinga being an experienced politician and readily preferred by the majority of African leaders, some other distinguishing leadership attitude and approach are necessary and required of the candidate. Education is the cornerstone for awareness, but one of the crucial qualities that a leader must possess is the inherent positive notion of servitude, in addition to commitment to the organization’s future aspirations.
As the incoming chairperson prepares to take on the baton, it is important to look forward with optimism, eager to continue making an impact in new ways, within the geopolitical context, and be ready to strategize broadly with key stakeholders and external powers. Pragmatism should be the catch-word while ensuring pragmatic acknowledgement of the potential to drive progress and actionable initiatives. Step away from excessive symbolism and superficial (shallow) influence instead of an invaluable and impactful engagement or relations.
AU is a multilateral body, and in this critical moment for the continent plagued by high youth unemployment, weak institutions and political instability, the new leader must have the spirit of innovation, dynamism and a forward-thinking vision. Professor (Ambassador) Edward Boateng, business executive and politician, in an opinion article, listed some of the criteria for the ideal AU head as follows: (i) Inter-generational bridge: Capability to bridge generational divides within the AU, fostering inter-generational dialogue and including the perspectives of all age groups in policy-making processes.
(ii) Conflict resolution: Strong leadership in addressing conflicts and crises effectively, with a coherent strategy for conflict resolution across the continent.
(iii) Institutional reforms: Commitment to spearheading institutional reforms, enhancing financial sustainability and streamlining decision-making processes to address the AU’s bureaucratic challenges.
(iv) Economic development: Drive economic reforms, attract investment and foster a business-friendly environment to tap into Africa’s vast resources and young population.
(v) Empowerment of women and youth: Promotion of policies that enhance gender equality and provide opportunities for young people to participate in governance and economic activities.
Opening New Chapter
A new chapter characterizing plethoric changes is, however, expected under the next chairperson beginning in March 2025. Arguments for several changes are necessary to make the continental organization work more effectively and produce tangible results especially now within the context of global reconfiguration. Africa is too diverse to fit together. But there are many more interests in uniting the continent. But the political, economic, and cultural diversities have to be transformed into continental strength to ensure development and growth, instead of a noticeable display of weaknesses and passive actions. It is often repeatedly claimed that the African Union needs urgent realistic reforms and some kind of rebranding of its structure as an effective instrument for rapid development, new economic architecture, and substantial growth.
In late January 2024, Rwandan President Paul Kagamé was appointed to lead the AU institutional reforms process. It was an important step towards implementing its institutional reforms, setting the Pan-African organization’s objectives under the leadership of the Heads of State who meet once a year at the Assembly. As Africa faces a multitude and multitude of crises, so also unstoppable debates have dominated inside Africa and on international platforms over the performance of the 55-member organization, its existing challenges, and the way forward in the fast-changing world.
Appropriately four candidates were short-listed for the position based on the fact that East and Southern Africa now have their turn. But at a glance, Odinga seemingly envisions carving out a new distinctive image for the African Union. His high-value knowledge and experiences, corporate business entrepreneurialism combined with pragmatic new economic development thinking would probably save Africa. Narratives too indicated that Odinga would adopt a far-reaching overhauled approach and take unshakable measures toward most significant issues across Africa. These are essential conditions for re-imaging the AU’s future.
An in-depth analysis shows us that there should be four structural directions, in particular, to address by the next AUC chairperson: (1) investment in the economic sphere; (2) increased cooperation in the security field, and; (3) a shared vision of international and regional issues, and (4) on the social and humanitarian sphere. These represent the significant aspects of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in Africa. Therefore, the AU has to take up the task of developing collective approaches to the problems of maintaining peace and security, strengthening democratic processes, developing human potential, and ensuring socio-economic growth.
In a final summary, the AU’s vision is to accelerate progress, and spearhead development and integration in close collaboration with all members. These are incorporated into a single continental development program often referred to as the AU Agenda 2063.
Professor Maurice Okoli is a fellow at the Institute for African Studies and the Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences. He is also a fellow at the North-Eastern Federal University of Russia. He is an expert at the Roscongress Foundation and the Valdai Discussion Club. As an academic researcher and economist with a keen interest in current geopolitical changes and the emerging world order, Maurice Okoli frequently contributes articles for publication in reputable media portals on different aspects of the interconnection between developing and developed countries, particularly in Asia, Africa and Europe. With comments and suggestions, he can be reached via email: ma***********@***il.com.
Dr Ken Onyeali Ikpe is the former Group CEO of Insight Redefini Group, Sub-Saharan Africa’s biggest Marketing Communications & Consumer Consulting Group. He holds a Ph.D and was trained at IESE Business School in Barcelona, Spain.
Feature/OPED
A Tale of Two Kidnappings
By Tony Ogunlowo
In the past few weeks, two high-profile kidnapping cases have captured the attention of the nation. One involved the kidnapping of more than 45 pupils and teachers from a school in Oyo state, and the other involved the relatives of an ex-minister.
Whilst the relatives of the ex-minister, his sister and her two sons, were rescued in a highly publicised police operation, the fate of the missing school children and their teachers remains unclear. Already two teachers have been killed: one was shot and the other beheaded.
Nigeria is a hotbed for kidnapping, and in 2025 alone, there were more than 4,000 reported cases. But bear in mind that for every case recorded, two or three went unreported, leaving relatives to deal with ransom demands on their own. And for cases reported, the overstretched and understaffed police are not much help and often suggest relatives negotiate with kidnappers. As a result, what was once a small sore has now festered, becoming an even bigger wound and growing.
It has been more than twelve years since 276 girls were kidnapped from their school in Chibok. To date, not all of them have been recovered. Some have died whilst others, heavily traumatised, have been found bearing children of their captors: their lives destroyed and those of their families.
The swift rescue of the ex-ministers’ relatives in a short window of just a few days points to one thing – elitism! If you’re well-connected, the powers that be will pull out all the stops to do what they’re supposed to be doing in the first place. If you’re a mere ordinary citizen, they can’t be bothered.
Even though the Federal Government has a policy of not negotiating with kidnappers, which is understandable since they don’t want to encourage the practice, they should have the means to end the scourge. Every government from the Obasanjo regime up to the incumbent have promised to take a hard line on abductions and banditry. To date, all that hardline rhetoric has just been ‘audio’, leaving bandits and kidnappers to get up to all sorts of things. There have been calls to allow citizens to take up arms: not a good idea, as this might encourage extrajudicial killings rather than for self-defence. There have also been calls for stiffer penalties, but, yet again, you need to catch the perpetrators first and make sure they don’t bribe their way out of the judicial system. The Forest Guards program is taking off, and hundreds of them are being recruited, trained and deployed, but are they paramilitary trained to be able to fight kidnappers in the bush?
Just like when the Chibok girls went missing under President Goodluck’s watch, the government is taking a lukewarm approach to the matter. What should be classified as a top priority has been pushed to the bottom of the list as all politicians rush to get their nomination forms in for the 2027 elections: the only thing that matters to them. If this were America, Trump would have mobilised the Army, Navy, Air Force, CIA, and whatever else he could think of to find ALL kidnapped victims. In Nigeria, the only thing politicians are interested in, their top priority, is re-election.
Children’s Day has come and gone, and so also has Democracy Day, as we head towards Independence Day, and somebody’s child, uncle, aunt, husband is still being held against their will with the security services running around like headless chickens, clueless as to what to do next. What happened to their network of informers? Are their surveillance techniques so primitive that they can’t locate a large gathering of people in the bush? Surely contact has been made with all kidnappers so they can list their demands, and why haven’t these leads been tracked using basic cellular telephony technology? But if it’s an ex-minister’s relative, they know how to pull a rabbit out of a hat.
Until the government adopts a zero-tolerance policy towards kidnapping and banditry – and sticks to it, these unfortunate incidents will continue.
Perhaps it’s time to seek foreign assistance since we don’t know what to do: already, Trump has stationed US troops, up North, to help us fight Boko Haram and ISIS. They already have the technology and personnel that can find a fly hiding behind a dune in the Sahara. An ordinary Air Force surveillance plane, or drone, equipped with heat-seeking infra-red cameras, overflying the place at night can easily find anyone hiding out in the Old Oyo park within hours, not days. And please don’t involve the NAF, who seem to bomb more innocent people than bad guys! Alternatively, bring in Sheikh Gumi, who seems to know most of the bandits. He might be able to help.
There is no easy fix to ending insecurity in Nigeria other than to bring in a brutal state of emergency that will grant security services carte blanche to deal with situations as they see fit. Again, this can lead to abuse of power, as was the case with the disbanded SARS.
To truly eliminate all insecurity in the country, the government needs to think long-term and go back to the root cause of all these problems – hunger. A hungry man (or woman) faced with unemployment and a high cost of living, with nothing to lose, will be crazy enough to do any kind of crime to put food on the table and a roof above his head. Doubling the size of the security services and equipping them doesn’t solve the problem.
Feature/OPED
Democracy and Problems; Made in Nigeria
By Prince Charles Dickson (PhD), and Dorcas Bawa
Nigeria’s democratic question is often wrongly framed as if democracy is a foreign garment that we must keep adjusting until it fits our body. We speak of Westminster, Washington, Athens, Paris and every borrowed vocabulary of governance, yet the wound before us is neither Greek nor British nor American. It is Nigerian. Our hunger is Nigerian. Our insecurity is Nigerian. Our broken families are Nigerian. Our abandoned children are Nigerian. Our vote-buying, ethno-religious suspicion, weak local institutions, elite impunity and democratic impatience are Nigerian. Therefore, any democracy that will heal us must be made in Nigeria.
This is not a call for isolation. It is a call for ownership. Democracy cannot survive as imported furniture placed in a burning house. It must grow from our values, culture, history and realities. It must be owned by the people, shaped by our communities, and driven by our collective aspirations for justice, equity and peace. It must answer the question of the farmer in Bassa, the displaced woman in Barkin Ladi, the market woman in Jos, the young person in Mangu, the traditional ruler trying to hold a fractured community together, the child who no longer trusts the home, and the citizen who has voted many times but has not yet felt government as care.
Since 1999, Nigeria has travelled a long and uneven democratic road. The return to civil rule after years of military dictatorship was not a small achievement. It restored constitutional government, reopened civic space, revived political parties, strengthened the press, expanded civil society engagement, and gave citizens the language with which to question power. We have had repeated elections, transitions between administrations, legislative contests, judicial interventions, public protests, investigative journalism and a growing generation of young Nigerians who no longer kneel before authority simply because it wears a title.
These are gains. They must not be dismissed.
But democracy is not merely the presence of elections. It is the presence of dignity. It is not only the counting of votes. It is the counting of lives. It is not complete because politicians campaign, courts sit, governors are sworn in, and budgets are read. Democracy becomes real when the weakest person in the community can say: “This country sees me. This system protects me. This government serves me.”
That is where our democratic journey remains painfully unfinished.
From 1999 to date, Nigeria has built the rituals of democracy faster than the culture of democracy. We have mastered rallies, slogans, posters, primaries, manifestoes, defections and inauguration ceremonies, but we have not sufficiently mastered accountability, inclusion, local ownership, civic discipline and justice. Too much power remains concentrated at the centre. Too many local governments exist more as salary points than as engines of grassroots development. Too many communities are remembered only during elections, condolences or conflict assessment visits. Too many citizens are mobilised as voters but abandoned as human beings.
Democracy made in Nigeria must therefore begin with the people at the centre. Government exists to serve the people, not the other way around. A system that treats citizens as spectators between election cycles is not a democracy. It is a political theatre with ballot boxes. A homegrown democracy insists that the woman, the youth, the person with disability, the displaced, the farmer, the trader, the child, the minority voice and the forgotten community are not footnotes in the national story. They are the story.
To be homegrown, democracy must also be rooted in culture, but not in the abusive misuse of culture. It must respect our languages, traditions, communal memory and ways of life, while refusing every cultural excuse for injustice. Culture should be a bridge, not a cage. It should protect the vulnerable, not silence them. It should teach respect for elders, but also responsibility by elders. It should honour family, but never hide violence inside family walls. It should value community, but never allow community loyalty to bury truth.
The crisis of Nigerian democracy is not only in Abuja. It is also in the home. It is in the family meeting where girls are denied inheritance. It is in the compound where abuse is covered because the offender is related. It is in marriage where responsibility is abandoned. It is in the neighbourhood where everyone knows a child is suffering but waits for the “government” to arrive. It is in the community where young people are recruited into dangerous labour because poverty has become an employer. It is in the silence that violence teaches how to grow teeth.
A recent week in the Plateau State Gender and Equal Opportunities Commission, particularly the Public Complaints and Mediation Department, tells a disturbing story. In one case, a sixteen-year-old schoolgirl became pregnant after alleged abuse within her own home. In another case, an eight-year-old girl from Tudun Wada was brought before the Commission after an alleged sexual assault by a neighbour. Her story was already layered with tragedy: displacement, loss of parents to violence, and dependence on an aged grandmother. Another ten-year-old child had to be reunited with her family in Enugu Agidi after two years of maltreatment while living with a distant relative in Jos. She required psychosocial support before returning home.
In the same week, an illegal commercial motor park around Anguldi in Jos South Local Government Area was reported. The Police were swiftly deployed, and arrests were made. Twelve young people, including three young women, were brought to the Commission. Early interrogation suggested a troubling pattern: the park operated weekly, moving young teenagers from Jos to Ibadan.
These are not isolated moral accidents. They are democratic alarms. But the entire team somehow collectively succeed because they understand the terrain.
Conflict does not end when gunfire stops. It enters homes. It alters parenting. It displaces children. It weakens supervision. It breaks livelihoods. It creates fear, dependency, resentment and desperation. A society that does not heal its conflict will eventually watch that conflict migrate into marriage, childhood, education, labour, politics and faith. The family becomes the first casualty, and later, the polling unit becomes only a mirror of the wounded home.
This is why democracy cannot be discussed only in constitutional language. It must be discussed in human language. When family values erode, democracy suffers. When parental responsibility collapses, democracy suffers. When the culture of respect for human dignity becomes almost non-existent, democracy suffers. When children are unsafe, women are overburdened, fathers disappear from responsibility, mothers are left unsupported, and communities outsource morality to government agencies, democracy becomes a tree without roots.
The problems holding us back are therefore clear. We continue to operate systems that often ignore local realities. We suffer from the concentration of power and the lack of accountability. Our local institutions are weak. Our democratic culture is poor. Tribalism, ethnicity and religious intolerance are too easily weaponised. Many citizens are apathetic because they have been disappointed too often. Others are active only when their group interest is touched. But a person who participates decides their destiny. A person who watches politics from the balcony should not be shocked when decisions are taken in rooms where they are absent.
Homegrown democracy must be community-driven. Decisions must be shaped at the local level through dialogue, consensus and trust. Nigeria cannot continue to pretend that Abuja can understand every stream, shrine, church, mosque, market, grazing route, school, boundary dispute and family wound better than the people who live with them daily. Local problems require local intelligence. But local intelligence must be connected to justice, not captured by local power brokers.
This is why traditional rulers, community heads, women leaders, youth groups, faith leaders, civil society organisations, government agencies, schools, security institutions and families must become democratic actors, not passive observers. Democracy is not INEC alone. It is not the National Assembly alone. It is not the courts alone. Democracy is the mother who protects her child, the father who carries responsibility with honour, the neighbour who reports abuse, the teacher who notices distress, the police officer who acts promptly, the mediator who listens carefully, the traditional ruler who refuses to hide wrongdoing, the pastor and imam who preach dignity, and the citizen who refuses to sell tomorrow for a small envelope today.
Finally, we must rebuild the moral architecture of the family. Mothers, fathers, guardians, relatives and neighbours must rise to nip these issues in the bud. The home is not outside democracy. The home is where citizenship first learns either care or cruelty. If the child learns silence in the face of abuse, she may become an adult who fears power. If the child learns dignity, he may become a citizen who demands justice.
Our country. Our democracy. Our future—May Nigeria win.
Feature/OPED
A Gallows Called Northern Nigeria
By Sani Abdulrazak, PhD
Believe whatever you want, but this government was not, is not, and sadly will not be serious about securing the lives and properties of Nigerians, which is its core and fundamental responsibility, unless citizens demand accountability and consequences for failure. Whatever they say is far from the reality on the ground. More troubling is the apparent complacency of many northern elites who seem to believe they are insulated from the insecurity consuming the region. Oh, how mistaken they are. It will surely reach their doorstep if they don’t do something about it; make no mistake about it.
Across Northern Nigeria, insecurity has evolved from a periodic challenge into a defining feature of daily life. Despite rising security expenditures and repeated assurances from those in authority, banditry, insurgency, kidnappings, cattle rustling, and communal conflicts continue to devastate communities. Thousands have lost their lives, countless others have been displaced, and many farming communities have either been abandoned or are operating under constant threat. While political and administrative centres often enjoy relative security, ordinary citizens in rural areas continue to bear the heaviest burden of the crisis. This growing disconnect has reinforced the perception that those in power are detached from the realities confronting the people they govern.
And then came the painful news of General Rabe Abubakar’s death; a tragedy that lays bare the helplessness consuming our region. For nearly two weeks, a retired General and his wife vanished into the shadows of Northern Nigeria, yet the vast security architecture of the state could neither locate nor rescue them. One cannot help but imagine the long, agonising days they endured: waiting, hoping, praying that help was on its way. But help never came. A man who once dedicated his life to defending this nation met his end in captivity, while his loved ones and an anxious public waited for a miracle that never arrived. If a General could disappear for days with no rescue in sight, what hope remains for the ordinary farmer, trader, teacher, or student whose name will never make the headlines? His death is not merely a personal tragedy; it is a haunting symbol of a North where even those who once stood at the pinnacle of the security establishment are no longer beyond the reach of the monster that has been allowed to grow unchecked.
The North has become a giant gallows; If you are residing in Northern Nigeria today, you are just waiting to be killed, somehow, someday…until we radically and collectively take this monster head-on by addressing the issue of out-of-school children, scrapping completely the almajiri system, reviving parental and societal values and responsibilities, enforcing birth control, and creating jobs for our teeming youths via agriculture and by reviving our comatose industries, we will not come out of this madness masked as insurgency, banditry, and kidnappings.
The roots of this crisis run much deeper than the activities of armed groups. Northern Nigeria carries the largest burden of out-of-school children in the country, leaving millions of young people without the education, skills, and opportunities necessary to build productive lives. The Almajiri system, once a respected institution for Islamic learning, has in many places deteriorated into a mechanism that exposes children to neglect, poverty, and exploitation. Thousands of young boys roam the streets without adequate parental care, formal education, or vocational training, making them vulnerable to recruitment by criminal and extremist networks.
Demographic pressure further compounds the problem. Many northern states continue to record high fertility rates while struggling to provide sufficient schools, healthcare services, and employment opportunities. The result is a rapidly expanding youth population confronted by limited prospects and widespread unemployment. In such circumstances, criminal gangs and insurgent groups find a steady pool of recruits. Breaking this cycle requires a comprehensive approach that combines educational expansion, meaningful almajiri reform, responsible family planning, youth empowerment, agricultural development, industrial revival, and targeted vocational training programmes. Security operations may suppress violence temporarily, but only social and economic transformation can remove the conditions that sustain it.
A Gallows Called Arewa
But just like the government, the masses are so not ready; they feign oblivion to the reality facing us. They instead channel their energy and time to ‘trending’ celebrity topics and await the next celebrity nude videos/pictures and chats to aimlessly talk about. The celebrities are only after immorality or waiting to endorse the politicians with the highest bid; the traditional rulers are either afraid or consumed by the menace.
This collective distraction has weakened society’s ability to confront its most pressing challenges. While communities suffer from poverty, violence, and underdevelopment, public discourse is often dominated by trivial controversies. Yet the North has repeatedly demonstrated that communities can mobilise when properly organised. Faith-based groups, youth associations, community leaders, and local organisations have played important roles in peacebuilding and conflict resolution in several areas. Reawakening civic consciousness and redirecting public attention toward education, security, and development must therefore become a priority.
The crisis also demands courage from those traditionally entrusted with providing moral, intellectual, and cultural leadership. At critical moments in our history, influential voices helped shape public opinion, challenge injustice, and mobilise communities toward collective action. Today, however, many of those voices appear either absent, intimidated, or resigned to the status quo, creating a leadership vacuum at a time when Northern Nigeria desperately needs guidance.
Our intellectuals have gone back to their shells, and rightly so. Our elders have done their part and are giving up on us. The most painful part is that our religious leaders, who spent time and energy convincing us that this government would usher in a golden age reminiscent of the Ottoman Empire, have disturbingly gone mute; no Al-Qunuts or warnings to the government anymore, since it is not the government of the fisherman from the creek. It makes one wonder if we are normal in Arewa. The northern elites despise their followers like the Israelis despise the Palestinians. Posterity will surely judge us all, and history will tell how we played our parts in the destruction of our beloved Northern Nigeria.
Religious leaders, elders and intellectuals historically provided mediation, moral authority and local governance where the state was weak. Their retreat may stem from fear, co-optation or the erosion of moral credibility. Re-engagement requires rebuilding trust and protecting civic space: establish formal consultative roles for elders and clerics in security and development planning, fund independent intellectual forums, and create interfaith platforms that can speak to social issues without intimidation. When clerics and scholars mobilise—on health, education or peace—public behaviour and policy often follow; restoring their voice is therefore strategic and urgent.
If you want to see all the ingredients of a doomed people, look no further than Northern Nigeria at the moment. Deepening poverty, educational failure, demographic pressure, weak governance, economic stagnation, and persistent insecurity have combined to create a dangerous reality for the region. Yet history shows that decline is not irreversible. Societies facing similar challenges have transformed themselves through long-term investments in education, economic opportunity, accountable governance, and community-led development. Northern Nigeria can do the same if its leaders and people are willing to confront uncomfortable truths and commit themselves to meaningful reform.
The time for lamentation alone has passed. Northern Nigeria requires a deliberate and measurable programme of recovery that places education, economic empowerment, and community security at its centre. Governments must become more transparent and accountable, traditional and religious leaders must reclaim their moral voice, intellectuals must re-enter public discourse, and citizens must demand better leadership. Only through a collective effort that addresses both the symptoms and the root causes of insecurity can the North begin to reverse its decline and build a future worthy of its people.
Sani Abdulrazak, PhD, is a researcher, writer, and public commentator based in Kaduna State
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