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Stanbic IBTC PMI Shows Rise in Business Activity First Time in Six Months

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Nigerian business activity

By Modupe Gbadeyanka

For the first time in six months, the Nigerian private sector recorded an improvement in business conditions, with a 52.7-point reading in the Stanbic IBTC Bank Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) in December 2024.

It was observed that overall business conditions improved as new orders increased for the second month running and renewed expansions were seen in output, employment and purchasing, though the inflation rate remained elevated.

Business Post reports that in the previous month, the index stood at 49.6 points signalling a solid improvement in the health of the private sector that was the most pronounced since January 2024.

“In line with the increase in economic activity usually associated with the festive season in Nigeria, the private sector activity moved above the 50-point psychological threshold for the first time in six months, settling higher at 52.7 in December from 49.6 in November – its most pronounced improvement since January 2024.

“This improved private sector activity reflects renewed expansions in output, purchasing, and employment level. New orders also increased for the second consecutive month, with the latest increase being the highest since May 2024, reflecting an improvement in consumer demand.

“Nonetheless, while some firms increased employment in response to the higher new orders, others reported having to let staff go due to difficulties paying wages.

“Elsewhere, output (54.8 points vs November: 49.6) ended a five-month sequence of decline, with survey participants linking the rise in activity to increased customer numbers. Growth was recorded across each of the four broad sectors covered by the survey. Meanwhile, input prices remained elevated in December – prices increased across all four monitored sectors, with the most pronounced increase in the manufacturing sector.

“As a result, output prices also remained elevated in December and ticked higher from that seen in November,” the Head of Equity Research West Africa at Stanbic IBTC Bank, Mr Muyiwa Oni, said.

“We maintain our expectation that the broad economy is likely to maintain the Q3:24 growth momentum in Q4:24, supported by a festive-induced increase in economic activity and sustained improvement in crude oil production.

“On balance, we estimate the economy to grow by 3.24% y/y in real terms in Q4:24 and adjust our 2024 growth estimate upward to 3.2% (previously: 3.1%). Over the medium term, some firms were optimistic of improvements in access to funding, helping them to invest in business expansions, while others were hopeful of an improvement in economic conditions in 2025, and a softening of inflationary pressures,” he added.

Modupe Gbadeyanka is a fast-rising journalist with Business Post Nigeria. Her passion for journalism is amazing. She is willing to learn more with a view to becoming one of the best pen-pushers in Nigeria. Her role models are the duo of CNN's Richard Quest and Christiane Amanpour.

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Economy

Investors Gain N38bn as NGX All-Share Index Climbs 0.06%

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All-Share Index NGX

By Dipo Olowookere

The positive momentum witnessed at the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited in the beginning of the year continued on Monday as the bourse climbed further by 0.06 per cent at the close of transactions.

It was a tough battle between the bulls and the bears during the trading day, but the former won after the insurance and the banking sectors closed higher by 4.12 per cent and 0.74 per cent, respectively.

Business Post reports that the consumer goods, the industrial goods, and the energy counters went down by 0.35 per cent, 0.10 per cent and 0.07 per cent, respectively, as a result of profit-taking yesterday.

However, they could not affect the outcome of Customs Street when trading activities ended, leaving the All-Share Index (ASI) growing by 61.91 points to 103,648.24 points from 103,586.33 points, and the market capitalisation increased by N38 billion to N63.204 trillion from N63.166 trillion.

Investor sentiment remained strong on Monday after a positive market breadth index buoyed by 48 price gainers and 19 price losers.

Wema Bank and DAAR Communications chalked up 10.00 per cent each to sell for N11.00 and 77 Kobo, respectively, as Honeywell Flour gained 9.99 per cent to finish at N8.37, Coronation Insurance expanded by 9.96 per cent to N2.98, and Lasaco Assurance appreciated by 9.95 per cent to N4.09.

On the flip side, Cutix shed 5.45 per cent to quote at N2.60, Caverton lost 5.36 per cent to trade at N2.65, Jaiz Bank declined by 5.23 per cent to N3.08, Champion Breweries plunged by 4.53 per cent to N4.00, and Ikeja Hotel slipped by 4.26 per cent to N12.35.

Yesterday, the trading volume, value, and number of deals went up by 20.68 per cent, 62.20 per cent and 21.42 per cent, respectively.

A total of 856.0 million stocks valued at N13.3 billion were traded during the session in 16,505 deals versus the 709.3 million stocks worth N8.2 billion transacted in 13,593 deals last Friday.

On top of the activity chart was Chams, with 80.8 million equities sold for N191.5 million, Veritas Kapital traded 60.5 million shares worth N105.7 million, Access Holdings exchanged 54.3 million stocks valued at N1.4 billion, GTCO transacted 54.0 million shares worth N3.1 billion, and Prestige Assurance sold 48.9 million equities valued at N76.0 million.

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Economy

Crude Oil Weakens on Bearish US, German Economic Outcomes

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Utapate crude oil blend

By Adedapo Adesanya

Crude oil depreciated on Monday as some bearish economic news from the United States and Germany offset support from a weaker US Dollar and forecasts for increased heating demand for energy from a winter storm.

Consequently, Brent futures fell by 21 cents or 0.3 per cent to settle at $76.30 a barrel and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude depleted by 40 cents or 0.5 per cent to trade at $73.56 per barrel.

In the US, the world’s biggest economy, new orders for manufactured goods fell in November amid weakness in demand for commercial aircraft while business spending on equipment appeared to have slowed in the fourth quarter, according to data from the Commerce Department’s Census Bureau.

In Germany, Europe’s biggest economy, annual inflation rose more than forecast in December due to higher food prices and a smaller drop in energy prices than in previous months.

To combat higher inflation, central banks often boost interest rates, which can slow economic growth and demand for energy.

Meanwhile, the market is looking at the weather as a winter storm occured across the US, causing prices for natural gas and heating fuel to spike 10 per cent on Monday, while diesel futures closed at their highest level since October.

Severe travel disruptions were expected across the storm’s path and officials urged drivers to stay off the roads if possible.

Governors in several states, including Kansas, Kentucky, Arkansas, West Virginia, Virginia and Maryland, have declared states of emergency.

Support also came as the US Dollar slumped more than 1 per cent against a basket of other currencies as President-elect Donald Trump reportedly mulled tariffs that would only be applied to critical imports, potentially a relief for countries that were expecting broader levies.

The US Dollar, however, pared much of that decline after Mr Trump denied the newspaper report.

A weaker US currency makes dollar-priced commodities like oil cheaper for buyers using other currencies.

In China, the world’s second-biggest economy, the Yuan ended the domestic session at its weakest level in 16 months against the US Dollar, weighed down by trade concerns.

In a sign of firmer demand expectations, Saudi Arabia, the world’s top oil exporter, raised crude prices for Asian buyers in February for the first time in three months.

Sudan, meanwhile, lifted a nearly year-long force majeure on the transport of crude oil from its neighbour South Sudan to a port on the Red Sea after security conditions improved.

Also, the Biden administration plans to impose more sanctions on Russia over its war on Ukraine, taking aim at its oil revenues with action against tankers carrying Russian crude

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Economy

Nigeria’s SEC Vows to Eliminate Ponzi, Pyramid Schemes in 2025

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Ponzi Schemes

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Nigerian Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has listed mainstreaming the Nigerian capital market into the economy as its top priority in 2025.

Mr Emomotimi Agama, the Director General of SEC, said this in his New Year message to the capital market community on Monday.

He also said the commission would intensify efforts to eliminate Ponzi and pyramid schemes, thereby fostering an environment for genuine investment opportunities to thrive in 2025.

He said that protecting investors remained a cornerstone of the commission’s mission.

Mr Agama also said that the commission would prioritise key initiatives aimed at deepening market integrity, enhancing investor confidence and driving economic growth.

According to him, “SEC is positioned with a dual mandate in regulating and developing the capital market in Nigeria.

“Naturally, our top priority in 2025 will cut across the dual mandate. For us, mainstreaming the Nigerian Capital Market into the economy is very vital.

“Enforcement is the backbone of effective regulation. We are revamping our investigative processes to enhance efficiency and hold bad actors accountable more decisively.

“Insider trading undermines activities and dampens market fairness. By revising our regulatory framework, we aim to strengthen detection, prevention, and accountability mechanisms.

“Transparency is at the heart of investors confidence and capital markets. We will introduce measures to ensure greater visibility and trust in securities transactions,” he stated.

The SEC director-general added that to resolve market disputes efficiently and fairly, the commission was focusing on enhancing the operations of the Investments and Securities Tribunal (IST).

He noted that these efforts aim to make the tribunal more effective in delivering timely resolutions, thereby improving overall efficiency in the process.

Mr Agama stated that key focus for the commission in 2025 is strengthening the legal framework of the commodities market to enable it attain its full potential of aiding economic development.

He said the commodities market is a major area of interest for SEC, adding that Nigeria is purely an agrarian nation.

The director-general said that taking that comparative advantage to the next level, is something that the commission is proud to be part of.

Mr Agama said this year, SEC would focus on reinforcing the legal and regulatory structures that support growth to create a solid foundation for the vibrant commodities ecosystem, be it soft or hard commodity.

“More so, when we have a plethora of commodities all over Nigeria. SEC as a partner in development will make sure that we make the difference,” he said.

Mr Agama also said that these initiatives reflect the commission’s vision for a stronger and more inclusive capital market in 2025, adding that SEC is committed to building wealth, instilling confidence and making impacts.

“As we embark on this journey, I invite all stakeholders to work with us in achieving these goals.

“Together, we can unlock the potentials of the Nigerian capital market and make this a defining year for our economy.

“What we intend to do, is to steer the capital market towards a direction that ensures that development gets to the doorstep of every Nigerian.”

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