Economy
Stanbic IBTC PMI for Private Sector Shows Rise in Business Confidence
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
The private sector in Nigeria sustained growth in January 2025, though lower than what was achieved in the preceding month.
The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) of Stanbic IBTC Bank for the month stood at 52.0 points compared with the 52.7 points recorded in December 2024.
It was observed that new orders and business activity maintained an upward trend amid a large improvement in business confidence as firms expanded employment, purchasing and inventories.
Although input costs and output prices continued to rise rapidly, respective rates of inflation were much slower than seen in December.
Business activity rose solidly in January, after having returned to growth in December. That said, the rate of expansion eased from the previous month. Activity increased across three of the four monitored sectors, the exception being wholesale and retail.
Signs of improving customer demand and a greater willingness among clients to commit to new projects supported the rise in output and also contributed to the growth of new orders. As was the case with activity, new business increased for the second month running, but at a softer pace than in December.
Companies were also much more optimistic regarding the future in January, with business expansion plans and marketing activities set to support output growth over the coming year. Although remaining relatively muted overall, the uplift in sentiment seen at the start of the year was the largest since the survey began just over 11 years ago.
There were signs of inflationary pressures softening in January. Although rates of increase in both input costs and output prices remained elevated, in both cases the rises were much weaker than seen in December. Overall input price inflation was the slowest since April 2024, while charges increased at the weakest pace in six months.
Efforts to satisfy customer requirements in a timely manner led companies to expand their staffing levels, purchasing activity and inventory holdings at the start of the year. In each case, the rises were the second in as many months. In particular, the accumulation of stocks of purchases was the most pronounced in just over a year and a half.
The attempts to get through projects quickly meant that firms were more successful in depleting backlogs of work, which decreased at a solid pace that was the most pronounced since June 2022. Finally, suppliers’ delivery times continued to shorten amid good arrangements with vendors and prompt payments.
“Nigeria’s private sector activity sustained its improvement in January 2025, albeit lower than levels seen in December 2024. We note an increase in both output (53.7 vs December 2024: 54.8) and new orders (52.6 vs December 2024: 53.2) although slightly weaker than that seen at the end of 2024, on account of improving customer demand and more willingness to commit to new projects.
“Given the rising new orders, companies took on additional workers in January – representing the second month running in which this has been the case.
“Elsewhere, input prices increased at a slower pace while the pace of increase in output prices is the slowest since July 2024.
Headline inflation averaged 33.18% y/y in 2024 from an average of 24.52% y/y in 2023 mostly driven by significant FX depreciation; renewed petrol price increases in line with full petrol price liberalization; structurally low food supplies exacerbated by high extreme weather conditions; and increased food demand, especially during the festive season.
“We expect a moderation in the inflation rate in 2025 although the pace of the moderation is only likely to be faster in late Q3:25. Notably, we expect headline inflation to average 30.5% y/y in 2025 and end the year at 27.1% y/y.
“In 2025, we project the non-oil sector to grow by 3.2% y/y from an estimated 3.0% y/y in 2024. Growth is likely to pick up across manufacturing and trade, while ICT and finance & insurance should continue to play a big role in economic performance.
“However, agriculture will likely still lag its long-term average amid lingering internal security challenges, high input costs, and extreme weather conditions. Within the manufacturing sector, cement, food and chemicals & pharmaceutical products are key sub-sectors that have been exceeding the manufacturing sector’s growth since Q4:22,” the Head of Equity Research West Africa at Stanbic IBTC Bank, Mr Muyiwa Oni, said.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The federal government has begun the process of repaying the N4 trillion debt owed to Power Generation Companies (GenCos) with the launch of a N590 billion first-tranche bond issuance.
The initial tranche, part of the wider N4 trillion Nigerian Bulk Electricity Trading (NBET) Finance Company Plc Bond Programme, comprises N300 billion in cash bonds to be issued to the market and N290 billion in non-cash bonds to be directly allotted to GenCos on identical terms.
The bond term sheet revealed that the Series 1 bond will be issued between November and December 2025 with CardinalStone Partners Limited serving as the lead issuing house and financial adviser.
The seven-year bond has a coupon range of 16.25 per cent to 16.75 per cent and carries a full sovereign guarantee and will be listed on both the Nigerian Exchange Limited and FMDQ Securities Exchange, making it eligible for investment by pension fund administrators, banks, asset managers, insurers and high-net-worth investors.
According to the term sheet, “Series 1 Tranche A involves N300bn issued to the market for cash, while N290bn under Tranche B is allotted to the GenCos on identical terms. The bond will be issued between November and December, with a seven-year tenor on a fixed-rate coupon, redeemed on an amortising basis and paid semi-annually in arrears.”
The bond issuance marks a major step by President Bola Tinubu’s administration to resolve what experts describe as one of the most crippling financial crises in Nigeria’s power sector. The Series 1 bond carries a seven-year tenor, a fixed coupon rate, and semi-annual interest payments, and will be amortised over its lifespan.
The issuer also retains the discretion to absorb oversubscription of up to N1.23tn, creating room for additional non-cash bond allocations to GenCos if required.
The term sheet added, “Pricing will be based on the yield of the seven-year FGN bond plus a spread, and the issuance will be conducted through a book-build process. The minimum subscription is N5m, representing 5,000 units at N1,000 each, with additional subscriptions in multiples of N1,000.
“Proceeds from the issuance will be used to settle outstanding liabilities owed to GenCos. The instrument is guaranteed by the full faith and credit of the Federal Government, enjoys CBN liquidity status, meets PenCom compliance requirements, qualifies under the Trustee Investment Act, and will be listed on both the Nigerian Exchange Limited and the FMDQ OTC Securities Exchange.”
It further noted that “oversubscription may be absorbed at the discretion of the issuer up to a maximum of N1,230,000,000,000 approved for Phase 1 of this transaction. The issuer reserves the right to increase the size of the non-cash bonds to be issued to the GenCos under any Series or accommodate additional allotments as may be required.”
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited and Heirs Energies have signed a deal to capture and use the gas flared at their onshore OML 17 joint venture in a bid to monetize the resource and reduce flaring.
The state oil company and Heirs Energies have signed the Gas Flare Commercialisation Agreements under the Nigerian Gas Flare Commercialisation Programme (NGFCP), a deal that will see both entities capture the gas flared across OML 17 and deploy it for use in power generation, industrial applications, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), and compressed natural gas (CNG).
The agreements bring together Heirs Energies, as operator of the OML 17 Joint Venture, and approved flare gas offtakers – AUT Gas, Twems Energies, Gas & Power Infrastructure Development Limited (GPID), PCCD and Africa Gas & Transport Company Limited (AGTC) – under frameworks designed to eliminate routine flaring while converting previously wasted resources into economic value. The move is aligned with Nigeria’s gas development priorities and energy transition goals, Heirs Energies said in a statement.
Gas flaring has been a major issue at Nigeria’s oilfields where it is wasted instead of used for many industrial purposes, and holds back the country’s targets to reduce emissions.
Last year, World Bank data showed that Nigeria saw flaring volumes jump by 12 per cent, the second largest increase globally behind Iran.
Flaring at oil and gas facilities operated by the national oil company and several smaller companies, likely with limited expertise or funding for gas utilization, accounted for 60 per cent of Nigeria’s gas flaring and 75 per cent of the increase in 2024, the report found.
Commenting on the deal to monetize gas at OML 17, Heirs Energies CEO, Mr Osa Igiehon said that “Through disciplined investment, partnership with regulators and credible offtakers, and a clear execution focus, we are converting waste into value, strengthening domestic energy supply and supporting responsible operations across OML 17.”
On his part, the Chief Upstream Investment Officer of NNPC Upstream Investment Management Services (NUIMS), Mr Seyi Omotowa, representing NNPC Limited, described the milestone as a practical demonstration of Nigeria’s commitment to gas-based development.
“Flare gas commercialisation is not a compliance exercise; it is a strategic pathway to improving energy availability, deepening gas-based industrialisation and strengthening Nigeria’s position as a responsible energy producer. OML 17 has become a practical model of this vision, moving decisively from approval to delivery.”
He commended Heirs Energies for disciplined execution and investment, noting that the JV continues to set benchmarks for operational delivery and gas development within Nigeria’s upstream sector.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Data sourced from the latest Fact Sheet released by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) has revealed that daily petrol consumption in Nigeria dropped by 6.8 per cent to an average of 52.9 million litres in November 2025.
The November figure marked a decline from the 56.74 million litres per day recorded in October 2025.
Of the total petrol consumed last month, 19.5 million litres per day were supplied by local refineries, higher than the 17.08 million litres per day recorded a month earlier.
A major driver of this increase was the Dangote Refinery, supplying an average of 23.52 million litres per day, up from 18.03 million litres daily in the previous month.
The Fact Sheet showed that imports accounted for 52.1 million litres per day of total consumption, showing an increase from 27.6 million litres per day in October.
The NMDPRA described Dangote’s current output as a significant milestone in reducing Nigeria’s reliance on imported fuel.
In contrast, the NNPC-operated Port Harcourt, Warri, and Kaduna refineries recorded zero petrol output during the period, and all three facilities remained in various states of rehabilitation or shutdown.
According to the regulator, the surge in imports was triggered by low supply levels in September and October 2025, which fell short of national demand, the need to shore up national stock ahead of end-of-year peak consumption, NNPC’s importation efforts to rebuild inventory and ensure supply security, and delayed offloading of 12 vessels initially scheduled for October but discharged in November.
October 2025 recorded the highest consumption within the one-year review period, followed by November 2024 (56 million litres) and April 2025 (55.2 million litres), the report noted.
The data showed that Nigerians also consumed an average of 15.4 million litres/day of diesel daily in November, alongside 2.5 million litres/day of aviation fuel and 3,992 million litres/day of cooking gas.
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