Economy
Economic Outlook: IMF Projects 6.0% Growth in 2021
By Adedapo Adesanya
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has reviewed its World Economic Outlook (WEO) to 6.0 per cent this year after the contraction of 3.3 per cent in 2020 amid the COVID-19 pandemic.
According to the Bretton Wood Institution on Tuesday, accelerated vaccinations and a flood of government spending, especially in the United States, have boosted the outlook for the global economy, but more must be done to prevent permanent scars.
The IMF said governments had spent $16 trillion in their attempts to mitigate the economic damage caused by the virus and that without the unprecedented policy response the global economy would have contracted by 10 per cent last year.
The WEO warned that the recovery would be uneven, with faster progress in rich countries further advanced with their vaccine programmes and with the financial firepower to pay for stimulus packages. Inequality would increase both between and within countries, it stated.
The IMF warned against withdrawing government support too soon and urged policymakers to safeguard the recovery through policies to support firms, including ensuring the adequate supply of credit and workers with wage support and retraining.
Of the advanced countries, the United States has recorded the biggest improvement in its prospects, with the IMF raising its growth forecasts by 1.3 points to 6.4 per cent in 2021 and 1.0 points to 3.5 per cent in 2022.
The United Kingdom is expected to grow by 5.3 per cent in 2021 and by 5.1 per cent in 2022 – an upward revision of 0.8 and 0.1 percentage points respectively since January.
Meanwhile, China’s economy, one of few that grew last year, will expand 8.4 per cent in 2021, the IMF said.
The Euro Area too will see GDP expand 4.4 per cent, slightly better than the prior forecast.
Speaking on the report, Ms Gita Gopinath, the IMF’s economic counsellor, said in a blog: “It is one year into the COVID-19 pandemic and the global community still confronts extreme social and economic strain as the human toll rises and millions remain unemployed.
“Yet, even with high uncertainty about the path of the pandemic, a way out of this health and economic crisis is increasingly visible. Thanks to the ingenuity of the scientific community hundreds of millions of people are being vaccinated and this is expected to power recoveries in many countries later this year.”
Ms Gopinath said swift action had prevented a repeat of the financial meltdown of 2008 and as a result, medium-term losses – output that will never be recovered – would be smaller at about 3 per cent of global GDP.
Unlike after the 2008 crisis, it would be emerging markets and low-income countries that could be expected to suffer greater scarring given their limited ability to stimulate their economies.
Despite becoming more optimistic about growth prospects, she said the future presented daunting challenges.
“The pandemic is yet to be defeated and virus cases are accelerating in many countries. Recoveries are also diverging dangerously across and within countries, as economies with slower vaccine rollout, more limited policy support, and more reliant on tourism do less well.”
The IMF calculates that an additional 95 million people expected to have entered the ranks of the extreme poor in 2020, and there are 80 million more undernourished than before.
The lender noted that cooperation to ensure widespread vaccinations across the world to address the “deeply iniquitous” vaccine access where rich countries are scooping up the bulk of the supply.
IMF also called for resources to help children who have fallen behind in their education during the pandemic.
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals has described reports making the rounds that it was importing finished petroleum products like premium motor spirit (PMS), otherwise known as petrol, diesel, and others into Nigeria as false and misleading.
In a chat with newsmen on Wednesday, the company clarified that what it brought into the country were merely intermediate or semi‑processed materials, which it emphasized is a standard practice within the global refining industry.
Intermediate materials—such as naphtha, straight‑run gas oil, vacuum gas oil (VGO), reformate, alkylate and isomerate—serve as feedstock for additional refining into finished fuels like petrol and diesel, as well as petrochemicals.
The chief executive of the facility, Mr David Bird, told journalists in Lagos that as a state‑of‑the‑art and large‑scale merchant refinery, DPRP refines crude oil and processes intermediate feedstocks into premium petroleum products and petrochemicals that meet the highest international standards, noting that this practice does not amount to importing finished petroleum products.
Mr Bird highlighted that Dangote Refinery operates using a European and Asian merchant refinery model, which integrates advanced refining, blending and trading systems designed to meet modern quality and environmental benchmarks.
“DPRP produces high‑quality fuels aligned with international environmental and health standards. Our gasoline is lead‑free and MMT‑free with 50 parts per million sulphur, while our diesel meets ultra‑low sulphur specifications. These standards help reduce emissions, protect engines, and safeguard public health,” the chief executive stated.
Mr Bird reaffirmed that the Dangote Refinery supplies only fully refined, market‑ready products, adding that semi‑finished fuels are unsuitable for vehicles and are therefore not released into the Nigerian market. Samples of both intermediate feedstocks and fully refined products were displayed to journalists during the briefing.
He further noted that the refinery was established to end years of exposure to substandard fuel in Nigeria by providing products that meet stringent global standards, adding that DPRP’s products are now exported to international markets, highlighting their quality and competitiveness.
The refinery chief stressed the company’s commitment to transparency in its operations and engagements with regulators, urging the media to help properly educate the public on the clear distinction between intermediate products and finished fuel.
“It is unfortunate that some individuals are deliberately spreading misleading narratives about a refinery that has transformed Nigeria and the West African region from a dumping ground for substandard fuels into a hub for high‑quality products,” he said, adding that the refinery’s flexible design allows it to process a diverse mix of crude oils and intermediate feedstocks into premium finished fuels.
Mr Bird assured Nigerians of sustained product availability, noting that the refinery has contributed significantly to easing fuel scarcity, stabilising the naira, and reducing pressure on foreign exchange.
On his part, the Chief Brand and Communications Officer of Dangote Industries Limited, Mr Anthony Chiejina, urged journalists to be precise in their choice of terminology, warning that inaccurate reporting could misinform the public and create unnecessary panic.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Nigeria is projected to move from being the become the third-largest economy in Africa in 2026 from the fourth position it clinched last year, according to data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
In the IMF’s World Economic Outlook (October 2025 edition), accessed via its datamapper, it was indicated that Nigeria’s gross domestic product (GDP) at current prices stood at about $285 billion in 2025, placing it behind South Africa, Egypt and Algeria.
South Africa topped the African ranking with a GDP of about $426 billion, followed by Egypt at $349 billion, and Algeria ranked third with $288 billion.
However, the IMF forecasts that Nigeria will overtake Algeria in 2026 as economic output rebounds, driven by higher oil production, improved foreign exchange liquidity and the impact of ongoing economic reforms.
According to the IMF’s projections, Nigeria’s GDP is expected to rise to $334 billion, putting it ahead of Algeria ($284 billion) and making it Africa’s third-largest economy, behind South Africa ($443 billion) and Egypt ($399 billion).
The lender’s outlook reflects expectations that recent reforms, including petrol subsidy removal, exchange-rate liberalisation and fiscal adjustments, will support medium-term growth, despite short-term inflationary pressures.
Africa’s largest economy’s position has shifted in recent years amid currency devaluations, rebasing exercises and macroeconomic headwinds across major economies on the continent. Nigeria in 2024 lost its status as Africa’s largest economy and dropped to fourth place after a series of Naira devaluations and wider reforms.
However, these appear to have brought about macro reliefs in the near term. On January 19, the IMF reviewed its forecast for Nigeria’s economic growth rate upward to 4.4 per cent in 2026. The Bretton Woods organisation revised the rate upward from its initial projection of 4.2 percent.
Prior to that, on January 13, the World Bank also increased its projection for Nigeria’s economic growth rate for 2026 to 4.4 percent from the 3.7 percent forecast in June 2025.
The federal government expects the Nigerian economy to grow by 4.68 per cent in 2026, supported by easing inflation, improved foreign exchange stability and continued fiscal reforms.
According to the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr Wale Edun, the country’s inflation, which peaked above 33 per cent in 2024, declined to 15.15 per cent by December 2025, adding that foreign exchange volatility has eased, with the Naira trading below N1,500 to the Dollar, while external reserves rose to $46 billion.
He added that GDP growth averaged 3.78 per cent by the third quarter of 2025, with 27 sectors recording expansion.
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
One of the leading cement firms, Lafarge Africa Plc, has confirmed plans to expand its plants in Gombe and Ogun States to about 5.5 million metric tonnes per annum.
In a notice to the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) on Wednesday, the company said it was strengthening local cement production with the expansion of its Sagamu Cement Plant in Ogun State and Ashaka Cement Plant in Gombe State.
It noted that the upon completion of the expansion projects, the production capacity of the Ashaka Cement in Gombe State would rise to 2 MT per annum, while the Sagamu facility would increase to 3.5 MT per annum.
The two new plants, the statement disclosed, would be dry plants with preheater kilns, vertical raw mills and roller presses for cement mills to make them energy efficient.
The disclosure signed by the company secretary, Adewunmi Alode, further revealed that the plants are expected to improve product availability and enhance Lafarge Africa’s ability to serve customers efficiently across key markets.
This expansion is coming after the announcement made last year that Huaxin Building Materials Group’s had acquired 83.81 per cent of Lafarge Africa and demonstrates their commitment to Nigeria’s infrastructural development.
The chief executive of Lafarge Africa, Mr Lolu Alade-Akinyemi, stated that the expansion projects reflect the company’s long-term confidence in Nigeria’s growth potential and are aimed at supporting Nigeria’s infrastructure and construction needs.
He explained that the project goes beyond capacity growth to deliver operational and sustainability benefits but also supports value creation for our customers and shareholders while contributing to economic activity and job creation across our host communities and the wider construction ecosystem.
“The expansion of our plants is a strategic investment that reinforces Lafarge Africa’s role in supporting national development. By increasing capacity at our flagship plants, we are strengthening our supply chain, improving our responsiveness to market demand, and positioning the business to better support critical sectors such as housing, commercial construction, and infrastructure.
“It enables us to integrate modern production technologies that enhance efficiency, reliability, and environmental performance, in line with our commitment to responsible operations,” Mr Alade-Akinyemi, stated.
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