Economy
AfDB Forecasts 4.1% GDP Growth for Nigeria, Others in 2023
By Adedapo Adesanya
The African Development Bank (AfDB) says Nigeria and other economies of Africa are projected to grow by 4.1 per cent in 2023 and 4.3 per cent in 2024.
This was announced by the President of the regional lender, Mr Akinwumi Adesina, while inaugurating the African Economic Outlook (AEO) 2023 at the ongoing 2023 AfDB Annual Meetings in Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt.
According to him, the economies on the continent have shown remarkable resilience in spite of the multiple and dynamic shocks it faces.
“These multiple and dynamic shocks have weighed on Africa’s growth momentum, with growth in real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimated at 3.8 per cent in 2022.
“This is down from 4.8 per cent in 2021. The GDP growth in 2022 is above the global average of 3.4 per cent.
“Africa has also shown remarkable resilience, evident in the projected consolidation of economic growth in the medium term.
“The outlook remains positive and stable, with a projected rebound to four per cent in 2023 and further consolidation to 4.3 per cent in 2024,” he said.
The AfDB boss attributed the slowed growth on the continent to the tightening global financial conditions and supply chain disruptions exacerbated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which subdued global growth.
He said growth was also impaired by the residual effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the growing impact of climate change and extreme weather events.
Mr Adesina said Africa had a great potential to pursue green growth and climate objectives to accelerate economic growth, given its enormous advantages.
He said the continent had some of the world’s fastest-growing economies, and its real GDP growth was projected to surpass the global average from 2023 to 2024, even as headwinds persist.
He further said the continent also had an important human capital base, with its population projected to increase to 2.4 billion by 2050.
“As most of the current population is young, compared with other regions’ ageing populations, Africa is the current and future frontier market in green growth opportunities. Africa hosts 25 per cent of the world’s natural biodiversity and 30 per cent of the world’s mineral resources, most of which will be essential for a green transition.
“Africa has a large “renewable energy potential, including wind, solar, hydropower, and geothermal and the world’s highest solar energy potential. Countries in the continent also have the greatest potential for investments in green infrastructure and technology,” he noted.
The AfDB president also said this was due to their low levels of development, low legacy high-emissions infrastructure, and low frequency of infrastructure and project finance default rates, estimated at 5.5 per cent.
On his part, the AfDB Vice President for Economic Governance and Knowledge, Mr Kelvin Urama, said currency stability remained an issue noting that countries with appreciating currencies include Angola (27.1 per cent), Seychelles (15.6 per cent), and Zambia (15.3 per cent).
Mr Urama said depreciation rates could ease in 2023 and 2024, but continued strengthening of the U.S. dollar would keep African currencies under pressure.
He said currency weaknesses in some of Africa’s more globally integrated economies (Kenya, Nigeria, and South Africa) are expected to persist in 2023.
“This is largely due to potential capital outflows as investors search for safe assets in advanced economies.’’
“Public debt is projected to remain high, with lingering vulnerabilities. However, the median public debt in Africa is estimated to have declined to 65 per cent of GDP in 2022 from 68 per cent in 2021.
“Thanks to debt relief initiatives in some countries, it will remain above the pre-pandemic level of 61 per cent of GDP.
The economist said this debt-GDP ratio was expected to increase to 66 per cent in 2023 and then stabilise at around 65 per cent in 2024.
He said this was due to growing financing needs associated with rising food and energy import bills, high debt service costs due to interest rate hikes, exchange rate depreciations, and rollover risks.
Economy
PENGASSAN Kicks Against Full Privatisation of Refineries
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (PENGASSAN) has warned against the full privatisation of the country’s government-owned refineries.
Recall that the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) is putting in place mechanisms to sell the moribund refineries in Port Harcourt, Warri, and Kaduna.
However, this has met fresh resistance, with the President of PENGASSAN, Mr Festus Osifo, saying selling a 100 per cent stake would mean the government losing total control of the refineries, a situation he warned would be detrimental to Nigeria’s energy security.
Mr Osifo said the union was advocating the sale of about 51 per cent of the government’s stake while retaining 49 per cent, which he described as being more beneficial to Nigerians.
“PENGASSAN, even before the time of Comrade Peter Esele, had been advocating that government should sell its shares. The reason why we don’t want government to sell it 100 per cent to private investors is because of the issue bordering on energy security,” he said on Channels Television, late on Sunday.
“So, what we have advocated is what I have said earlier. If government sells 51 per cent stake in the refinery, what is going to happen? They will lose control, so that is actually selling. But for the benefit of Nigerians, retain 49 per cent of it.“
The PENGASSAN leader maintained that if the government had heeded the union’s advice in the past, the oil industry would be in a better state than it is today.
He addressed concerns in some quarters over whether investors would be willing to buy stakes in government-owned refineries, insisting that there are investors who would be interested.
“Yes, there are investors who surely will be willing to buy a stake in the refinery because our population in Nigeria is quite huge, and those refineries, when well maintained without political pressures and political interference, will work,” he said.
However, Mr Osifo warned that even if the government decides to sell a 51 per cent stake, it must ensure that a complete valuation is carried out to avoid selling the refineries cheaply.
Economy
SEC Gives Capital Market Operators Deadline to Renew Registration
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
Capital market operators have been given a deadline by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for the renewal of their registration.
A statement from the regulator said CMOs have till Saturday, January 31, 2026, to renew their registration, and to make the process seamless, an electronic receipt and processing of applications would commence in the first quarter of 2026.
“These initiatives reflect our commitment to leveraging technology for faster, more transparent, and efficient regulatory processes.
“The commission is taking deliberate steps to make regulatory processes faster, more transparent, and technology-driven. We are investing in automation, database-supervision, and secure infrastructure to improve how we interact with the market,” the Director General of SEC, Mr Emomotimi Agama, was quoted as saying in the statement during an interview in Abuja over the weekend.
He noted that through the digital transformation portal, the organisation has automated registration and licensing end-to-end as operators can now submit applications, upload documents, and track approvals online, cutting down manual processing time and reducing the need for physical visits.
According to him, the agency has also rolled out the Commercial Paper issuance module, which allows operators to file documents, monitor progress, and receive approvals electronically while feedback from early users shows a clear improvement in turnaround time.
“Work is ongoing to automate quarterly and annual returns submissions, with structured templates and system checks to ensure accuracy. A returns analytics dashboard is also in development to support risk based supervision and exception reporting.
“To back these changes, we have started upgrading our IT infrastructure, servers, storage, networks, and security layers, to boost speed and reliability.
“Selective cloud migration is underway for platforms that need scalability and external access, while core internal systems remain on premisev5p for now as we assess security and cost implications.
“At the same time, we are strengthening data integrity and cybersecurity with vulnerability assessments and planned penetration testing once automation and migration phases are stable.
“These efforts show our commitment to building a modern, resilient regulatory environment that supports efficiency, investor confidence, and market stability,” he stated.
Mr Agama affirmed that the nation’s capital market was clearly on a path toward digital transformation adding that there is an urgent need for regulatory clarity on advanced technologies, targeted support for smaller firms, and capacity-building initiatives.
“A phased and proportionate approach to regulating emerging technologies such as AI is essential, complemented by internal readiness through supervisory technology tools.
“Furthermore, investor education, particularly among younger demographics, will be critical to future-proof participation and drive fintech adoption.
“Innovation is vital, but it must be accompanied by responsibility. As operators embrace automation, artificial intelligence, and data-driven tools, they bear a duty to ensure ethical, secure, and compliant deployment. Safeguarding investor data, preventing market abuse, and maintaining operational resilience are non-negotiable,” he declared.
The SEC DG said that ultimately, responsible technology adoption is about building trust, the cornerstone of our markets saying that trust thrives on fairness, transparency, accountability, and regulatory compliance.
He, therefore, urged operators to uphold these principles adding that it will not only protect investors and systemic stability but also strengthen the long-term credibility and competitiveness of the Nigerian capital market.
Economy
No Discrepancies in Harmonised, Gazetted Tax Laws—Oyedele
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Chairman of the Presidential Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms Committee, Mr Taiwo Oyedele, has said there are no discrepancies in the tax laws passed by the National Assembly and the gazetted versions made available to the public.
Last week, a member of the House of Representatives, Mr Abdussamad Dasuki, raised worries about the differences between its version and that gazetted by the presidency.
However, speaking on Channels Television’s Morning Brief on Monday, Mr Oyedele claimed what has been circulating in the media was fake.
“Before you can say there is a difference between what was gazetted and what was passed, we have what has not been gazetted. We don’t have what was passed,” he said.
“The official harmonised bills certified by the clerk, which the National Assembly sent to the President, we don’t have a copy to compare. Only the lawmakers can say authoritatively what we sent.
“It should be the House of Representatives or Senate version. It should be the harmonised version certified by the clerk. Even me, I cannot say that I have it. I only have what was presented to Mr President to sign.”
Mr Oyedele stated that he reached out to the House of Representatives Committee regarding a particular Section 41 (8), which states, “You have to pay a deposit of 20 per cent.”
He noted that the response given by the committee was that its members had not met on the issue.
“I know that particular provision is not in the final gazette, but it was in the draft gazette. Some people decided that they should write the report of the committee before the committee had met, and it had circulated everywhere.
“What is out there in the media did not come from the committee set up by the House of Representatives. I think we should allow them do the investigation,” Mr Oyedele added.
In June, President Bola Tinubu signed the four tax reform bills into law, marking what the government has described as the most significant overhaul of the country’s tax system in decades.
The tax reform laws, which faced stiff opposition from federal lawmakers from the northern part of the country before their passage, are scheduled to take effect on January 1, 2026.
The laws include the Nigeria Tax Act, the Nigeria Tax Administration Act, the Nigeria Revenue Service (Establishment) Act, and the Joint Revenue Board (Establishment) Act, all operating under a single authority, the Nigeria Revenue Service.
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