Economy
Business Confidence in Nigeria Falls in February Amid Rise in Input Costs
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
Business conditions in Nigeria slowed to 51.0 in February 2024 from 54.5 in January 2024, as price pressures intensified in the private sector at an unprecedented pace in over a decade of data collection, the Stanbic IBTC Bank Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) has revealed.
A statement from the lender disclosed that the improvement in business conditions was the weakest since the recovery in the private sector began last December.
It stated that input costs surged higher in the period under consideration as a result of higher fuel prices and exchange rate weakness, which drove up material costs.
The latest rise in overall input costs was by far the sharpest since the survey began in January 2014, with around 78 per cent of respondents signalling an increase over the month.
It was observed that both input costs and output prices increased at the sharpest rates on record, with rising prices impacting demand. As a result, rates of expansion in output and new orders slowed sharply over the month, while employment decreased for the first time in 10 months, as business confidence dropped to the lowest on record.
The report stated that output price inflation also hit a fresh record high in February as firms passed through rising input costs to their customers.
Steep price pressures acted to limit new orders in the private sector. Although new business increased for the third successive month amid some positive signs of underlying demand, the rate of expansion slowed sharply and was the weakest in this sequence.
This was also the case with business activity, which increased only slightly, as rising activity in the agriculture and services sectors contrasted with falls in manufacturing and wholesale & retail.
Signs of weakness in the private sector led companies to lower their staffing levels for the first time in ten months, albeit marginally.
Purchasing activity was also scaled back following a marked expansion in the previous survey period. Firms were able to keep on top of workloads, however, and reduced outstanding business for the first time in three months.
A desire to be able to respond to new orders promptly meant that companies continued to increase their inventories. Meanwhile, suppliers’ delivery times shortened again.
Unprecedented inflationary pressures amid currency weakness and signs of demand softening meant that business confidence dropped to the lowest on record in February.
Firms remained optimistic regarding the year-ahead outlook for activity, however, often reflecting business expansion plans and hopes for an improvement in economic conditions.
“Stanbic IBTC Bank headline PMI slowed to its weakest level since December 23, moderating remarkably to 51.0 in February from 54.5 in January.
“Employment level dropped below the 50.0 no-change mark for the first time in 10 months while the output and new order’s expansion both weakened significantly in the month.
“These weaknesses were in line with the sharp local currency depreciation, increase in fuel prices, and rapidly rising food costs in February, thereby driving overall cost pressures in the month.
“These lingering pressures may push domestic demand low, limiting growth potentials in Q1 of 24,” the Head of Equity Research for West Africa at Stanbic IBTC Bank, Mr Muyiwa Oni, said.
Economy
LIRS Reminds Employers of January 31 Deadline for Filing Tax Returns
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
Owners of companies operating in Lagos State have been reminded of the statutory filing of their annual tax returns for the 2024 financial year on or before Friday, January 31, 2025.
This reminder was issued by the Lagos State Internal Revenue Service (LIRS) through its Deputy Director for Corporate Communications, Mrs Monsurat Amasa-Oyelude.
The agency emphasized that employers are required to adhere to this in line with the Personal Income Tax Act (PITA) Cap P8 LFN 2004 (as amended).
The statement quoted the Chairman of LIRS, Mr Ayodele Subair, as stressing that the filing of the tax returns is a legal obligation, warning that failure to comply will result in statutory sanctions, including penalties, as prescribed by law.
Section 81 of PITA mandates employers to submit comprehensive annual returns detailing all emoluments paid to employees, including taxes deducted and remitted to relevant tax authorities. These returns must be filed no later than January 31 each year and cover the income and taxes paid during the preceding year (2024).
“Employers must prioritize the timely filing of their annual income tax returns to avoid penalties.
“Submitting returns on or before the deadline ensures compliance with the law and supports accurate revenue tracking, which is essential for Lagos State’s fiscal planning and sustainability,” the LIRS chief stated.
To simplify the process, the agency has transitioned to a fully digital filing system, allowing employers to file their annual tax returns exclusively through the LIRS e-Tax portal, as manual submissions are no longer accepted.
Mr Subair described the e-Tax platform as secure, user-friendly, and designed to provide employers with a convenient way to manage their tax obligations.
Employers are reminded to include the Payer ID of all employees in their returns, advising employees without a Taxpayer ID to generate one immediately on the e-Tax platform to prevent disruptions during the filing process.
To assist employers, LIRS has deployed staff across its offices to provide guidance on using the e-Tax portal and addressing related concerns.
Economy
NBS Website Blackout Mars Access to Nigerian Economy Information
By Adedapo Adesanya
For almost a month, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) website has been down, blocking access to crucial information about the Nigerian economy.
The nation’s statistics agency shut down its website after it claims it had been hacked on December 18, 2024.
Since then, important information such as capital flows into the Nigerian economy in the third quarter of 2024, as well as an update on outstanding local and foreign debt for the same period, have become inaccessible.
The website blackout occurred a day after the NBS published its Crime Experience and Security Perception Survey on December 17. According to the report, Nigerians paid a total of N2.23 trillion in ransom within one year, from May 2023 to April 2024.
There was a widespread report (excluding Business Post) that the Department of State Services (DSS) summoned the Statistician-General of the Federation, Mr Adeniran Adeyemi, based on the report.
This was later denied by the secret police.
The agency then closed the site on December 18, further warning against using any information posted on it until it was fully restored.
In its last update on X, formerly Twitter, the stats office said, “This is to inform the public that the NBS Website has been hacked and we are working to recover it. Please disregard any message or report posted until the website is fully restored. Thank you.”
This lack of information has raised worry about inflation report for December, which is usually due on January 15 as per recent trends.
The inflation numbers set the tone for decisions of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Nigeria, which should hold its first policy meeting for 2025 on January 27-28.
Analysts told this newspaper that the continued blackout on the NBS website raises concerns about credibility and trust on data that will be provided in the future.
Economy
Energy Editors See Significant Boost in Nigeria’s Oil, Gas in Q1 2025
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Society of Energy Editors (SEE) expects the Nigerian energy sector to witness significant developments in the first quarter of 2025.
This, according to the society, would be driven by President Bola Tinubu’s proposed N49.7 trillion budget for the year.
The budget is anchored on an increase in base crude oil production to 2.06 million barrels per day, expected to drive down inflation from 34.6 per cent to 15 per cent in 2025.
In its Nigeria Energy Outlook Q1 2025, the group said key areas to watch in the energy sector in the first quarter of the year include oil oil exploration and production; domestic crude refining; gas production and liquefied natural gas (LNG) export; power generation and transmission as well as labour relations.
“The government’s target to increase crude oil production is ambitious, but its feasibility hinges on addressing security challenges, particularly in the Niger Delta region.
“Nigeria plans to hold a fresh oil licensing round in 2025 focused primarily on handing out blocks that remained undeveloped, as the country battles to raise crude reserves and production,” it said in the outlook.
It added that “the federal government would have to show the necessary political will and apply a lot of push for this fresh oil licensing round to happen during the year as planned”.
On domestic refining, the organisation noted that the commencement of petroleum refining at the Dangote Refinery is expected to reduce fuel imports and ease the burden of petroleum subsidies.
However, it added that the steady supply of crude oil feedstock from the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited to the Dangote Refinery would be crucial in determining the refinery’s impact on the economy in 2025.
Nigeria spent N9.176 trillion on the importation of the Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), also known as petrol, in nine months, from January to September 2024, rising by 60.87 percent, compared with N5.704 trillion worth of the commodity imported in the same period in 2023.
Focusing on gas production and LNG exports, the SEE projected that Nigeria’s gas sector will grow during the first quarter, driven by the government’s “Decade of Gas” initiative and the country’s ambitions to increase its gas reserves to 210 trillion cubic feet, Tcf, in 2025 and 220 Tcf by 2030.
“Gas production and supply will also increase in response to the Federal Government initiative on gas for automobiles and the need to meet the current shortfalls being experienced by power generating stations and industries,” it also projected.
According to the SEE, gas export through the Nigeria LNG Limited will be steady during the first quarter.
In the area of power generation and transmission, the Society of Energy Editors, said efforts to expand power generation and improve transmission infrastructure will continue, with a focus on increasing the share of renewable energy sources in the energy mix.
It maintained that power transmission and distribution infrastructure remained very weak with the national grid recording 12 incidents of collapse in 2024. Adding that 2025 would witness a repeat owing to poor mitigation measures aimed at tackling inherent weaknesses.
On labour relations, the society stated that the government would need to address labour concerns in the downstream and upstream petroleum sectors, as well as in the electricity sector, to maintain stability and avoid disruptions.
Listing challenges and opportunities, it noted that the government’s expectations for reducing inflation and improving the exchange rate may be challenging to achieve, given the current market realities.
It asserted that the development of the Niger Delta region, through the activities of the Niger Delta Development Commission, would be crucial in addressing the root causes of insecurity and instability in the region.
“The solid minerals sector offers significant opportunities for revenue growth and job creation, but the government will need to address the challenges of artisanal mining and ensure that the sector is developed in a sustainable and responsible manner.
“Overall, the first quarter of 2025 will be critical in setting the tone for Nigeria’s energy sector in the year ahead. The government’s policies and initiatives will need to be carefully implemented to address the challenges facing the sector and to unlock its full potential,” the report stated.
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