Economy
Crude Oil Prices Turn Bearish as Libyan Production Rises
By Adedapo Adesanya
Oil prices went bearish on Thursday after the production output in Libya returned to 1.25 million barrels per day, the level the country was pumping before the port blockade in January.
The return of Libyan oil to this level is a huge source of worry for the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, (OPEC+), considering it is exempted from the output cut deal at the time the pact was signed.
The outlook on global oil demand is clouded again by the second coronavirus wave with further downward forecast made this month from OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA).
The North African producer was pumping less than 100,000 barrels per day due to the eight-month-long blockade that ended in September after the Libyan National Army (LNA) lifted the blockade on Libyan oil fields and terminals.
Since then, Libya’s National Oil Company (NOC) has gradually lifted force majeure on the oil terminals and oilfields leading the country’s crude oil production to rise.
Within a month, Libya’s production could reach 1.3 million barrels and even though it will continue to add more , the OPEC member will not join the OPEC+ quotas until its output stabilizes at 1.7 million barrels per day.
But the situation yesterday dragged the oil down as the Brent crude declined by 0.45 per cent or 20 cents to sell at $44.14 per barrel.
It also softened the price of the United States’ futures, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude by 0.22 per cent or 10 cents depreciation to trade at $41.74 per barrel.
It has been observed that since Pfizer and Moderna announced progress in vaccines, prices rallied but the main worry is that a vaccine would not be immediately available to many people in the world, leaving the news a short term solution because only when people can move freely around the world can demand fully return.
Widespread support for a three-month extension of the current level of oil production cuts has been proposed by OPEC with many members reportedly in support of extending the production cuts that were supposed to ease 2.0 million barrels per day in January.
Other members were in favor of even more drastic measures, which included cutting deeper come January.
The OPEC+ group will hold a full meeting on November 30 – December 1 to decide the action which would see them commit to lowering their production in order to help stabilize oil prices even as the COVID-19 pandemic and its economic consequences have affected revenue from oil production to finance their state budgets.
The price levels in 2020 has resulted in a widening of state deficits, increasing borrowing and shrinking foreign currency reserves.
Economy
Stanbic IBTC Simplifies Global Trends into Actionable Insights for Clients
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
Stanbic IBTC Bank, a subsidiary of Stanbic IBTC Holdings Plc, has provided insights that empower businesses to navigate a complex economic landscape.
This was done at its annual Global Markets Economic Outlook forum themed Global Economic Trends and Nigeria’s Position, which was attended by key stakeholders, industry leaders, and clients.
The Executive Director for Corporate and Transaction Banking at Stanbic IBTC Bank, Mr Eric Fajemisin, said the forum reflects the bank’s continued commitment to keeping clients ahead of global shifts that have direct implications for their businesses.
“As global trade patterns continue to realign, it’s important that our clients understand not just what is happening, but what it means for their operations and growth strategies.
“This forum is part of our ongoing effort to translate global trends into actionable insights for businesses operating in Nigeria,” he said.
Also, the Head of Global Markets, Nigeria at Stanbic IBTC Bank, Mr Dare Otitoju, highlighted Nigeria’s growing relevance in global trade conversations, noting the country’s potential to strengthen its position as a trade and investment hub on the continent.
“Nigerians should look forward to a transition from stabilisation to selective growth. Global higher-for-longer rates indicate that capital will reward countries with policy consistency, which Nigeria is building post-reforms. Key areas to watch include infrastructure funding, gas and manufacturing, and capital market opportunities as FX becomes more predictable.
“The Outlook message was clear: while 2026 may not be a boom year, prepared individuals and businesses will find real opportunities. That’s the plan we want Nigerians to leave with,” he stated
On his part, the Resident Representative for Nigeria at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Mr Christian Ebeke, in a keynote address, shed light on Nigeria’s optimistic outlook.
He highlighted several factors, including rising hydrocarbon prices, decreasing global financing costs, and tax reforms that took effect in January 2026, all of which could help the country surpass its revenue targets. He also pointed out the advantages associated with enhanced state policing.
Mr Ebeke stated in his presentation that Nigeria should capitalise on immediate opportunities. This includes securing oil pipelines, improving electricity infrastructure, and shifting investment from government securities to the private sector.
Also, the Special Adviser on Financial Markets and Economic Policy to the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Mr Mayokun Ajibade, emphasised the necessity of addressing excessive liquidity in the banking system as a sustainable means of combating inflation.
He expressed the importance of a balanced approach, advocating for a focus on lowering inflation before pursuing interest rate reductions; noting that the Nigerian banking system has too much liquidity, therefore a decline in interest rates should not be expected without first addressing inflation.
Economy
NASD Security Index Sheds 70.29 Points
By Adedapo Adesanya
The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange depreciated by 1.63 per cent on Monday, July 6, after the share price of Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc depleted by N9.04 to N81.70 per unit from last Friday’s N90.74 per unit.
This shrank the NASD Security Index (NSI) during the session by 70.29 points to 4,236.97 points from 4,307.26 points, and contracted the market capitalisation by N42.19 billion to N2.543 trillion from N2.585 trillion.
The unlisted securities exchange lost yesterday despite having more price gainers than losers. Afriland Properties Plc gained N1.48 to end at N16.65 per share versus the previous N15.17 per share, Industrial General Insurance (IGI) Plc appreciated by 5 Kobo to close at 55 Kobo per unit compared with the preceding session’s 50 Kobo per unit, and Food Concepts Plc improved by 1 Kobo to trade at N2.51 per share, in contrast to last Friday’s N2.50 per share.
During the session, the value of trades by investors fell by 98.3 per cent to N2.8 million from N160.1 million, the volume of transactions dipped by 93.6 per cent to 114,175 units from 1.8 million units, and the number of deals decreased by 14.3 per cent to 18 deals from 21 deals.
Great Nigeria Insurance (GNI) Plc ended the day as the most traded stock by value on a year-to-date basis, with 3.4 billion units worth N8.4 billion, trailed by Infrastructure Credit Guarantee (Infracredit) Plc with 2.3 billion units valued at N6.5 billion, and CSCS Plc with 70.7 million units exchanged for N4.9 billion.
GNI Plc also closed the session as the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis, with 3.4 billion units sold for N8.4 billion, followed by Infracredit Plc with 2.3 billion units traded for N6.5 billion, and Resourcery Plc with 1.1 billion units transacted for N415.7 million.
Economy
Naira Firms to N1,368/$1 at Official Forex Market
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Naira further appreciated against the United States Dollar in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) on Monday, July 6, by N1.92 or 0.14 per cent to end at N1,368.27/$1, in contrast to the previous exchange rate of N1,370.19/$1.
The domestic currency also improved its value against the Pound Sterling in the official forex market during the session by N2.98 to trade at N1,826.91/£1 versus last Friday’s value of N1,829.89/£1, and against the Euro, it gained N5.63 to quote at N1,562.69/€1 compared with the preceding session’s N1,568.32/€1.
In the same vein, the Nigerian Naira gained N1 against the US Dollar at the GTBank FX counter during the session to close at N1,831/$1 compared with last Friday’s quoted price of N1,832/$1, and at the parallel market, it remained unchanged at N1,390/$1.
Monday’s appreciation reinforced the local currency’s relative stability witnessed in recent months under ongoing monetary and foreign exchange reforms by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).
Market analysts linked the sustained improvement to stronger foreign-exchange liquidity in the official market, also citing improved investor confidence, which has supported demand and supply conditions in the FX market.
According to analysts, sustained policy measures introduced by the apex bank have continued to strengthen market transparency and price discovery.
Updated data showed the country’s gross external reserves ended the week at $51.46 billion following successive FX inflows from across multiple sources.
In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin (BTC) held in the low $63,000s, despite Strategy’s disclosure this week that it sold 3,588 bitcoin for about $216 million, its largest sale since abandoning its never-sell stance, which the market largely absorbed without breaking the recovery. It appreciated by 0.2 per cent to $63,069.84, while Solana (SOL) improved by 0.8 per cent to $80.94, and TRON (TRX) expanded by 0.2 per cent to $0.3295.
On the flip side, Cardano (ADA) fell by 2.5 per cent to $0.1793, Dogecoin (DOGE) slumped by 2.2 per cent to $0.0749, Ripple (XRP) depreciated by 1.1 per cent to $1.12, Binance Coin (BNB) slid by 0.5 per cent to $578.79, and Ethereum (ETH) slipped by 0.2 per cent to $1,767.90, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) sold flat at $1.00 each.
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