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Don’t Trigger Social Unrest in Quest to Raise Revenue—IMF Advises Nigeria, Others

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Rethink Relationship With IMF Nigeria

By Adedapo Adesanya

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned Nigeria and other Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) countries not to prioritise higher earnings over the poor living condition of their citizens so as not to trigger social unrest.

This call came from the Bretton Woods institution in its World Economic Outlook (WEO), July 2025 edition, where it upgraded its forecasts for Nigeria’s economic growth for 2025 and 2026 to 3.4 per cent and 3.2 per cent, respectively.

In the same vein, the IMF raised its forecast for the Sub-Saharan African region to 4.0 per cent for 2025 and 4.3 per cent for 2026, representing a 0.2 percentage point and 0.1 percentage point increase from 3.8 per cent and 4.2 per cent, respectively, projected in the April 2025 WEO.

“Growth is expected to be relatively stable in 2025 in sub-Saharan Africa at 4.0 per cent, before picking up to 4.3 per cent in 2026,” the IMF said.

However, the multilateral institution called for urgent structural and institutional reforms across SSA as the region grapples with a complex mix of economic challenges.

Commenting on the SSA region, Division Chief, Research Department, Ms Deniz Igan said: “Given the challenges Sub-Saharan Africa is facing, this is an important pillar for renewed growth in the region. There’s a need for both structural and institutional reforms. And what we mean there is to give some specific examples.

“Further, regional trade integration is one. More investment in infrastructure transportation is another one. And reform of state-owned enterprises, again, especially in the energy sector and transportation sector, is another priority.”

Ms Igan also stressed the importance of equitable fiscal reforms, noting that efforts to raise revenues must avoid deepening inequality or triggering social unrest.

She advocated the removal of poorly targeted tax exemptions, greater reliance on progressive income taxes, and the need to build public trust through transparent governance. According to her, engaging with stakeholders and sequencing reforms carefully would be essential to protect vulnerable groups and ensure broad-based support for policy changes.

“Now we understand that on the fiscal front, with high debt levels as well, there’s a need for mobilising revenues, and that can generate a sense of unfairness and inequity that could create social backlash.

“And on that front, our advice has been for the design of fiscal reforms that are equitable, that are efficient, and more specifically, there. What we have in mind is removing poorly targeted exemptions in the tax code, making use of progressive income taxes much more, and building trust and support, as we had covered in detail in our October 2024 report in one of our analytical chapters, by engaging with stakeholders, hearing what they need, improving governance and protecting the vulnerable, and at same time, bundling, sequencing and pacing different measures to make sure that the most vulnerable in the society are protected.”

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

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Economy

State Visit: CPPE, LCCI Urge Tinubu to Pursue Trade Expansion with UK

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Tinubu's Portrait

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) and the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) have called for trade expansion ahead of President Bola Tinubu’s state visit to the United Kingdom.

In separate communications, the organisations urged President Tinubu to deepen economic ties as he visits the UK on the invitation of the King of England, King Charles III. His state visit to the UK next week will mark Nigeria’s first such visit to the UK in 37 years, when Military President Ibrahim Babangida was head of state.

The chief executive of CPPE, Mr Muda Yusuf, said the planned visit by Mr Tinubu to the UK is significant on multiple fronts.

“At a time of shifting global alliances and economic realignments, the visit presents both opportunity and responsibility.

“It is expected that leading Nigerian business figures will accompany the President, creating a platform for expanding trade flows, deepening investment partnerships, promoting Nigeria as a destination for capital, and strengthening financial-sector linkages.

“The UK remains a major source of portfolio flows, development finance, and private-sector investment into Nigeria. Structured engagements during the visit could unlock opportunities in infrastructure, energy, financial services, technology, manufacturing, and agribusiness,” Mr Yusuf stated.

On her part, the Director General of the LCCI, Mrs Chinyere Almona, noted that the visit represents a historic opportunity to recalibrate Nigeria–UK relations from traditional diplomacy to focused economic diplomacy.

“At a time when Nigeria is implementing bold macroeconomic reforms, this visit should be leveraged to secure concrete commitments on trade expansion, long-term investment, and cooperation on the business environment.

“From the perspective of the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry, the overriding objective should be to translate goodwill into measurable economic outcomes that strengthen Nigeria’s productive base and export capacity,” she said.

According to her, recent data underscore the strategic importance of the UK to Nigeria’s economy, noting that in Q3 2025, Nigeria recorded capital importation of approximately US$6.01 billion, representing a significant year-on-year surge.

“Notably, the United Kingdom emerged as Nigeria’s largest source of capital inflows, accounting for about US$2.94 billion, or nearly half of total inflows during the quarter. These inflows were driven predominantly by portfolio investment, particularly into the financial and banking sectors, reflecting renewed foreign investor confidence following Nigeria’s macroeconomic adjustments.

“On the trade front, total trade in goods and services between Nigeria and the UK stood at approximately £8 billion in the 12 months to mid-2025,” she said.

She said, however, that the relationship remains structurally imbalanced, with UK exports to Nigeria significantly exceeding Nigeria’s exports to the UK.

“Ultimately, the economic agenda of this state visit should be guided by Nigeria’s most pressing challenges: export diversification, inflation-induced cost pressures, infrastructure deficits, and the need for stable long-term capital,” Mrs Almona said in an interview with Nairametrics.

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Economy

Preference for Foreign Currencies in Domestic Transactions Threat to Financial System—EFCC

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foreign currencies domestic transactions

By Dipo Olowookere

The Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) has frowned on the use of foreign currencies for financial transactions in Nigeria, saying this could disrupt the nation’s stability.

The acting Zonal Director of the agency in Ilorin, Mrs Victoria Ugo-Ali, informed the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) that the EFCC chairman, Mr Ola Olukoyede, is determined to curb the increasing preference for foreign currencies in domestic transactions, describing the practice “as a serious threat to the stability of the nation’s financial system.”

Speaking during a courtesy visit to the Branch Controller of the Ilorin Branch of the central bank, Mr Monga Muhammed, on Tuesday, Mrs Ugo-Ali noted that “many economic and financial crimes are perpetrated through financial institutions,” stressing the importance of timely intelligence and reports on suspicious transactions.

She called on the apex bank to continue providing the commission with relevant financial intelligence that would aid investigations and help curb money laundering and other financial crimes.

She also reiterated that the growing preference for foreign currencies in local transactions undermines the value of the naira and weakens public confidence in the national currency.

In his response, Mr Muhammed commended the Zonal Director and the management team of the EFCC for the visit, promising to sustain and deepen the already cordial relationship between the two organisations.

He described the engagement as the first of its kind and expressed optimism that it would further strengthen the cooperation between both institutions.

“At our end here, we will continue to partner with you because we carry out complementary functions. While your duty is to tackle economic and financial crimes, our responsibility, primarily as the apex bank, is to stabilise the economy and regulate financial institutions. We will not fail in that regard,” he said.

The CBN Branch Controller further disclosed that the apex bank had put several measures in place to address naira abuse and the dollarisation of the economy.

According to him, the CBN has the capacity to track currency in circulation and would not hesitate to apply appropriate sanctions against individuals or organisations found trading illegally in the nation’s currency.

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Economy

SUNU Plans N9.3bn Rights Issue for Recapitalisation

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SUNU Assurances Nigeria

By Adedapo Adesanya

SUNU Assurances Nigeria Plc has taken steps to raise N9.3 billion through a rights issue by offering 2,075,285,714 ordinary shares of 50 Kobo each at the price of N4.50.

The new shares would be allotted to shareholders in the ratio of five new ordinary shares for every 14 ordinary shares held as of February 12, 2026.

Proceeds from the exercise would be used by the company to meet the new minimum capital requirements of the National Insurance Commission (NAICOM).

The non-life insurer is preparing to raise fresh equity capital from the capital market to meet the N15 billion minimum capital requirement introduced under the Nigerian Insurance Industry Reform Act (NIIRA) 2025, with a July 2026 compliance deadline.

According to the company’s chairman, Mr Kyari Abba Bukar, the capital plan is a proactive move to strengthen solvency, expand underwriting capacity and maintain competitive positioning in a tightening regulatory environment.

“This is a growth initiative. We are positioning early to meet the new benchmark and enhance our capacity to underwrite larger and more complex risks,” he said.

On his part, the chief executive, Mr Samuel Ogbodu, underscored the company’s dividend track record, noting that SUNU has paid dividends consistently over the past three to four years.

“We have maintained steady growth in premium income, profitability and governance standards over the last decade. Our shareholders have been rewarded, and we project continuity in value delivery,” Mr Ogbodu said.

The SUNU Group, as the majority shareholder with approximately 83 per cent equity interest, has decided to reduce its stake to comply with the free float requirements of the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited. The exchange’s rule book said listed firms must float 20 per cent for the general investing public.

This strategic review of the company’s ownership structure aligns with the group’s long-term growth objectives and its commitment to supporting market development.

He said that while the parent company possesses the financial capacity to fully recapitalise the business, the board has determined that existing shareholders and new Nigerian investors shall be afforded the opportunity to participate in the next phase of the company’s growth.

This decision underscores SUNU’s commitment to broadening Nigerian participation in the ownership structure of the Company, Mr Ogbodu added.

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