Economy
Don’t Trigger Social Unrest in Quest to Raise Revenue—IMF Advises Nigeria, Others
By Adedapo Adesanya
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned Nigeria and other Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) countries not to prioritise higher earnings over the poor living condition of their citizens so as not to trigger social unrest.
This call came from the Bretton Woods institution in its World Economic Outlook (WEO), July 2025 edition, where it upgraded its forecasts for Nigeria’s economic growth for 2025 and 2026 to 3.4 per cent and 3.2 per cent, respectively.
In the same vein, the IMF raised its forecast for the Sub-Saharan African region to 4.0 per cent for 2025 and 4.3 per cent for 2026, representing a 0.2 percentage point and 0.1 percentage point increase from 3.8 per cent and 4.2 per cent, respectively, projected in the April 2025 WEO.
“Growth is expected to be relatively stable in 2025 in sub-Saharan Africa at 4.0 per cent, before picking up to 4.3 per cent in 2026,” the IMF said.
However, the multilateral institution called for urgent structural and institutional reforms across SSA as the region grapples with a complex mix of economic challenges.
Commenting on the SSA region, Division Chief, Research Department, Ms Deniz Igan said: “Given the challenges Sub-Saharan Africa is facing, this is an important pillar for renewed growth in the region. There’s a need for both structural and institutional reforms. And what we mean there is to give some specific examples.
“Further, regional trade integration is one. More investment in infrastructure transportation is another one. And reform of state-owned enterprises, again, especially in the energy sector and transportation sector, is another priority.”
Ms Igan also stressed the importance of equitable fiscal reforms, noting that efforts to raise revenues must avoid deepening inequality or triggering social unrest.
She advocated the removal of poorly targeted tax exemptions, greater reliance on progressive income taxes, and the need to build public trust through transparent governance. According to her, engaging with stakeholders and sequencing reforms carefully would be essential to protect vulnerable groups and ensure broad-based support for policy changes.
“Now we understand that on the fiscal front, with high debt levels as well, there’s a need for mobilising revenues, and that can generate a sense of unfairness and inequity that could create social backlash.
“And on that front, our advice has been for the design of fiscal reforms that are equitable, that are efficient, and more specifically, there. What we have in mind is removing poorly targeted exemptions in the tax code, making use of progressive income taxes much more, and building trust and support, as we had covered in detail in our October 2024 report in one of our analytical chapters, by engaging with stakeholders, hearing what they need, improving governance and protecting the vulnerable, and at same time, bundling, sequencing and pacing different measures to make sure that the most vulnerable in the society are protected.”
By Adedapo Adesanya
The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange lost 0.27 per cent on Thursday, January 29, weakening the Unlisted Security Index (NSI) by 9.79 points to 3,622.77 points from the previous session’s 3,632.56 points, as the market capitalisation recorded a N5.85 billion loss to end at N2.167 trillion compared with Wednesday’s closing value of N2.173 trillion.
Three securities were responsible for the downfall of the alternative stock market, with leaders being Okitipupa Plc, which shrank by N15.70 to end at N218.90 per unit versus the previous day’s N234.60 per unit. Afriland Properties Plc declined by 50 Kobo to close at N14.00 per share compared with the N14.50 per share it finished at midweek, and Food Concepts Plc dropped 9 Kobo to sell at N2.63 per unit versus N2.72 per unit.
Business Post reports that there were two price gainers yesterday led by Nipco Plc, which added N17.48 to its value to settle at N259.48 per share versus N242.00 per share, and Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc appreciated by 35 Kobo to N40.50 per unit from N40.15 per unit.
During the trading session, the volume of securities went down by 57.3 per cent to 1.9 million units from 4.7 million units, the value of securities decreased by 74.4 per cent to N13.4 million from N52.4 million, and the number of deals slipped by 50 per cent to 16 deals from 32 deals.
When the market closed for the day, CSCS Plc was still the most active stock by value on a year-to-date basis with 15.3 million units traded for N622.9 million, trailed by FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc with 1.6 million units exchanged for N108.4 million, and Geo-Fluids Plc with 8.9 million units worth N60.4 million.
CSCS Plc was also the most active stock by volume on a year-to-date basis with 15.3 million units valued at N622.9 million, followed by Mass Telecom Innovation Plc with 10.1 million units sold for N4.1 million, and Geo-Fluids Plc with 8.9 million units transacted for N60.4 million.
By Dipo Olowookere
The gains recorded by RT Briscoe and 40 other equities lifted the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited by 0.22 per cent on Thursday after a day with the bears.
Rebound of the stock exchange was triggered by renewed bargain-hunting activities by the market participants, with RT Briscoe gaining 10.00 per cent to sell for N7.15.
SCOA Nigeria appreciated by 9.91 per cent to N31.60, Deap Capital also jumped by 9.91 per cent to N10.43, Veritas Kapital appreciated by 9.85 per cent to N2.23, and Zichis chalked up 9.80 per cent to trade at N3.81.
Conversely, Haldane McCall depreciated by 9.84 per cent to finish at N3.94, Union Dicon shed 9.79 per cent to close at N8.75, University Press shrank by 8.00 per cent to N5.75, Legend Internet crashed by 7.56 per cent to N5.50, and Austin Laz lost 7.50 per cent to quote at N3.70.
Data indicated that the bourse ended the session with 41 price gainers and 27 price losers, implying a positive market breadth index and strong investor sentiment.
Business Post reports that the industrial goods index was flat yesterday, but this was offset by the others, with the banking space up by 0.68 per cent, the insurance segment rose by 0.64 per cent, the consumer goods counter expanded by 0.46 per cent, and the energy sector grew by 0.10 per cent.
Consequently, the All-Share Index (ASI) went up by 362.93 points to 165,527.31 points from 165,164.38 points and the market capitalisation gained N232 billion to finish at N105.969 trillion versus the previous day’s N105.737 trillion.
The most traded stock for the day was Cutix with 144.6 million units worth N464.9 million, Veritas Kapital traded 56.6 million units for N124.3 million, GTCO sold 26.0 million units valued at N2.6 billion, Tantalizers exchanged 26.0 million units worth N110.0 million, and Japaul transacted 25.9 million units valued at N67.2 million.
When Customs Street closed for business, the activity chart showed the trading was up by 10.94 per cent to 691.4 million shares from 623.2 million shares, the trading value was down by 6.67 per cent to N15.4 billion from N16.5 billion and the number of deals shrank by 8.32 per cent to 38,665 deals from 42,172 deals.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Naira appreciated further on the Dollar in the the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) on Thursday, January 29 by N3.49 or 0.25 per cent to N1,396.99/$1 from the previous session’s N1,400.48/$1.
This was supported by foreign portfolio inflows from a recent bond auction and relatively subdued Dollar demand.
Year old reforms in the FX market as well as structural reforms in the oil sector have eased fears and buoyed investments, boosting foreign capital inflows and stronger diaspora remittances.
Also, the weakening of the Dollar has lent support as the American currency hit a four-year low triggered by tariff uncertainty, policy volatility including threats to US Federal Reserve independence, and rising fiscal deficits.
It also improved its value against the Euro in the official FX market yesterday by N3.75 to quote at N1,671.78/€1 versus midweek’s rate of N1,675.53/€1, but lost N2.05 against the Pound Sterling to trade at N1,932.04/£1 versus Wednesday’s closing rate of N1,929.99/£1.
In the parallel market, it gained N10 against the US Dollar to settle at N1,470/$1 compared with the previous session’s exchange rate of N1,480/$1 but remained unchanged at N1,426/$1 at the GTBank forex desk.
Market traders expect the Naira to remain fairly stable and could strengthen further with a bond auction in the coming week.
Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market was weaker as traders reacted to reports that US President Donald Trump would nominate former Federal Reserve Board member, Mr Kevin Warsh, to replace current Federal Reserve Chair, Mr Jerome Powell. It is believed that Mr Warsh is bearish on crypto.
President Trump said late Thursday he would name his nominee on Friday morning, a day after lambasting Mr Powell and the US central bank for not choosing to reduce rates. The US Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at its meeting on Wednesday.
Cardano (ADA) fell by 8.1 per cent to $0.3225, Ethereum (ETH) declined by 7.9 per cent to $2,718.16, Solana (SOL) slipped by 7.6 per cent to $113.90, Ripple (XRP) crashed by 7.3 per cent to $1.74, Litecoin (LTC) went down by 6.8 per cent to $63.55, Bitcoin (BTC) depreciated by 6.7 per cent to $82,292.42, Binance Coin (BNB) decreased by 6.6 per cent to $839.47, and Dogecoin (DOGE) retreated by 7.1 per cent to $0.1131, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) closed flat at $1.00 each.
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