Economy
Fitch Affirms Nigeria at ‘B+’ with Negative Outlook
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
One of the leading rating agencies in the world, Fitch Ratings, has affirmed Nigeria’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at ‘B+’ with a Negative Outlook.
A statement issued yesterday by the firm explained that Nigeria’s ratings were supported by its large and diversified economy, significant oil reserves, its net external creditor position, low external debt service ratio and large domestic debt market.
According to Fitch, these were balanced against relatively low per capita GDP, an exceptionally narrow fiscal revenue base and a weak business environment.
It added that the Negative Outlook reflects the downside risks from rising government indebtedness, and the possibility of a reversal of recent improvements in foreign currency (FX) liquidity and a faltering of the still fragile economic recovery.
Fitch forecasts growth of 1.5% in 2017 and 2.6% in 2018, following Nigeria’s first contraction in 25 years in 2016. GDP growth continued to contract in 1Q17, but by less than in the previous four quarters.
The recovery will be driven mainly by increased FX availability to the non-oil economy and fiscal stimulus, as higher oil revenue and various funding initiatives have raised the government’s ability to execute on capital spending plans.
However, the FX market remains far from fully transparent, domestic liquidity has also become a constraint, and the growth forecast is subject to downside risks. Inflation remains high at 16.1% in July 2017, but Fitch projects it to decline to 11% in 2019.
Crude oil production rose to 1.8 million barrels per day (mbpd) in July 2017, from 1.5 mbpd in December 2016; the increase was driven by the lifting of force majeure at the Forcados export terminal and the completion of maintenance at both Forcados and the Bonga oil field.
Fitch has revised down its expectation of full-year average production to 1.8 mbpd, which is about equal to 2016 production.
Separately, Fitch notes that the imposition of an OPEC quota may cap Nigeria’s crude production at 1.8mbpd, which could limit the oil sector’s upside potential. However, as it excludes condensate production, the quota should not affect Nigeria’s near-term production potential.
In April 2017, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) introduced the Investors & Exporters (I&E) currency window and gradually introduced further measures to improve the liquidity of this instrument.
It also intervenes actively to support the currency while keeping domestic liquidity conditions tight.
In addition, higher oil prices and increased portfolio and FDI inflows have enabled the CBN to increase its provision of FX liquidity to the market. As a result, the parallel exchange rate began to converge towards the I&E rate, currently at around NGN360 per USD, and foreign currency liquidity shortages eased.
Most activity now occurs on the I&E window, and Fitch believes that the I&E rate should now be considered the relevant exchange rate.
Fitch forecasts the general government fiscal deficit to rise slightly to 4.5% of GDP in 2017 from 4.4% in 2016. Tax revenue in the first five months of 2017 underperformed budget expectations, as in 2015-16. The current Medium Term Expenditure Framework envisages a combined NGN3.5 trillion of capital expenditures in 2017 and 2018.
In 2016, with a budget year that ran to May 2017 the government executed approximately N1.2 trillion of the N1.6 trillion forecast in the 2016 budget. Improved financing will see a stronger execution of capital expenditure plans in 2017 and subsequent years. As oil production rises and the overall economy recovers, Fitch expects that higher revenues will drive a narrowing of the general government deficit to 3.4% in 2018.
Nigeria’s general government debt stock is low at 17% of GDP at end-2016, well below the ‘B’ median of 56% of GDP, and Fitch expects only a moderate increase to 20% of GDP at end-2017.
However, low revenues present a risk to public debt sustainability. General government debt to revenue, at 297% at end-2016, is already above the ‘B’ category median of 227% and Fitch forecasts it to increase to 325% in 2017. The ratio is even higher at the federal government level.
Nigeria’s current account surplus is expected to widen slightly to 1.0% of GDP in 2017, from 0.7% in 2016.
Fitch says it expects exports to increase by about 30% in 2017 and an additional 10% in 2018, as oil production and prices increase.
However, imports, which fell by over 30% in 2016, will also rise as dollar availability increases and the non-oil economy recovers.
The international reserves position has increased to USD30.8 billion as of end-July 2017 and it will be bolstered by expected external financing flows. Part of the reserves may be encumbered in forward contracts.
The economic contraction in 2016 and tight FX and naira liquidity weakened asset quality in the Nigerian banking sector. Non-performing loans rose to 12.8% at end-2016, up from 5.3% at end-2015. Rising impairment charges from bad loans have in turn led to capital adequacy ratios falling to 14.8% in 2016, from 16.1% at end-2015. The new FX window has aided FX liquidity for banks in 2017, but credit to the private sector (adjusted for FX valuation effects) is declining.
Nigeria’s ratings are constrained by weak governance indicators, as measured by the World Bank, as well as low human development and business environment indicators and per capita income.
Economy
CBN Bars Loan Defaulters from New Credit, Banking Facilities
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has moved to tighten credit discipline across the banking sector, directing all financial institutions to deny additional loans and banking facilities to large borrowers whose existing loan obligations are classified as non-performing.
The directive, issued in a circular dated March 12, 2026, was signed by Mrs Olubukola Akinwunmi, Director of Banking Supervision, and addressed to all deposit money banks operating in the country.
Under the new policy, any borrower whose loan facility is recorded as non-performing in the Credit Risk Management System (CRMS), the CBN’s centralised credit database, or flagged by any licensed private credit bureau, will be immediately ineligible for new credit.
The measure takes effect without transition, applying across all banks simultaneously.
The apex bank’s restrictions extend beyond direct lending. Affected borrowers will also be denied access to contingent banking facilities, including bankers’ confirmations, letters of credit, performance bonds, and advance payment guarantees, instruments commonly used in trade finance and large-scale commercial transactions.
Banks have additionally been directed to obtain further realisable collateral from affected obligors to adequately secure their existing exposures.
The apex bank did not specify a timeline within which this additional collateral must be obtained.
The CBN defines large-ticket obligors as borrowers whose combined exposures across all banks exceed the Single Obligor Limit, or whose outstanding obligations materially affect a bank’s Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) or otherwise pose systemic risks to the broader financial system.
The policy is grounded in Clause 3.2(d) of the Prudential Guidelines for Deposit Money Banks.
The identification of such obligors will be based on data captured in the CRMS and reports from licensed private credit bureaus, according to the circular.
In issuing the directive, the CBN cited the heightened risk that large non-performing obligors pose to individual banks and the wider financial system.
The regulator stated that the new framework is designed to limit contagion risks and reinforce responsible lending practices across the sector.
The move reflects a broader regulatory effort to address the rise in non-performing loans (NPLs) within Nigeria’s banking sector and to ensure that institutions with significant credit exposures to distressed borrowers are not further endangered by extending new facilities to the same counterparties.
Compliance is expected from all deposit money banks with immediate effect.
The CBN did not outline specific sanctions for non-compliance in the circular, though supervisory penalties under the Banks and Other Financial Institutions Act (BOFIA) 2020 would ordinarily apply.
Economy
Rise in Petrol, Diesel Prices in Nigeria Caused by FG’s Failure to Plan—Peter Obi
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
The presidential candidate of the Labour Party (LP) in the 2023 general elections, Mr Peter Obi, has blamed the federal government for the high energy costs in Nigeria.
In a post, the former Anambra State Governor said if the central government, led by President Bola Tinubu, had planned for the future, Nigerians would not be paying through their nose for premium motor spirit (PMS), otherwise known as petrol, and Automotive Gas Oil (AGO), also known as diesel.
Disruption in the supply of crude oil on the global market has caused consumers to pay more for petrol and diesel in the country.
The United States and Israel waged war against Iran, killing its Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, about two weeks ago in airstrikes.
This has triggered tension in the Middle East, with Iran firing missiles at its neighbours, and closing the Strait of Hormuz, a small water path between Iran and Oman, where one-fifth of global crude oil supply passes through.
Before the crisis, PMS was selling at N835 per litre and crude oil was below $90 per barrel. But oil rose above $100 per barrel, causing the price of petrol in Nigeria to hit over N1,200 per litre.
Reacting to the development, Mr Obi said Nigeria felt the shock despite not being attacked because the government failed to plan.
“Many people wonder why any adverse development in the global economy quickly impacts Nigeria. A recent example is the tension involving Iran, which led to an increase in global oil prices and, subsequently, a rise in petroleum prices in Nigeria.
“A few weeks ago, petrol was selling for less than N1,000 per litre, but today it costs over N1,200 per litre. Diesel, which was also priced below N1,000 per litre, is now over N1,500 per litre. These rapid increases illustrate how quickly external shocks can affect the Nigerian economy.
“The reason for this is straightforward: most countries, whether they are oil-producing or non-oil-producing, maintain strategic petroleum reserves to cushion against supply or price shocks. This means that when there is a disruption in the global oil market, they can release part of these reserves to stabilise supply. However, Nigeria lacks such a buffer, so the impact is felt almost immediately.
“The underlying issue is a lack of planning. Countries that engage in planning create buffers against shocks, while those that do not remain vulnerable to them. The old maxim remains true: when a country fails to plan, it has already planned to fail,” he wrote.
Earlier this week, the Minister of Finance, Mr Wale Edun, said the country’s economy was strong enough to absorb external shocks, saying the over 4 per cent growth in the gross domestic product (GDP) in the fourth quarter of last year was a testament to that.
Economy
New Tax Regime to Ease Burden on Workers, Small Businesses—Tegbe
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Chairman of the National Tax Policy Implementation Committee (NTPIC), Mr Joseph Tegbe, has reiterated that Nigeria’s new tax regime is designed to ease the burden on workers and small businesses while strengthening the country’s fiscal sustainability and economic competitiveness.
Speaking at the BusinessDay Tax Reform Conference 2026, themed “Navigating the New Tax Regime: What It Means for Your Wallet,” Mr Tegbe described the reforms as the most comprehensive overhaul of Nigeria’s tax architecture in decades, aimed at simplifying taxation, improving fairness, and encouraging economic growth.
According to him, the reforms, anchored on four landmark legislations: the Nigeria Tax Act, 2025, Nigeria Tax Administration Act, 2025, Nigeria Revenue Service (Establishment) Act, 2025, and the Joint Revenue Board of Nigeria (Establishment) Act, 2025, introduce targeted reliefs for individuals and small businesses.
Under the new framework, individuals earning less than N800,000 annually will pay no personal income tax, while workers can claim rent relief of up to 20 per cent, capped at N500,000, among other reliefs.
He also said small businesses will benefit significantly, with companies earning below N100 million in annual revenue and with assets under N250 million exempted from Company Income Tax (CIT), while nano-enterprises earning below N12 million annually are exempted from income tax.
He, however, underscored the importance of proper documentation of earnings and subsequent filing of returns, even for those who fall within the threshold exempted from income tax.
“These reforms are designed to make taxation simpler, fairer, and more predictable for Nigerians,” he said, adding that “For most workers and small businesses, the new regime means paying the same or even lower taxes while operating within a more transparent system.”
The reforms also strengthen Nigeria’s tax administration through improved coordination among key institutions, including the Nigeria Revenue Service, the Joint Revenue Board of Nigeria, the Tax Appeal Tribunal, and the Office of the Tax Ombudsman, while accelerating the digitalisation of tax processes.
Mr Tegbe noted that beyond improving revenue efficiency, the reforms aim to create a tax system that supports enterprise, investment, and long-term economic growth.
“The ultimate objective is to build a tax system that works for both government and citizens, one that supports development while protecting the pockets of ordinary Nigerians,” he concluded
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