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Economy

Fitch Affirms Nigeria at ‘B+’ with Negative Outlook

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Fitch Ratings

By Modupe Gbadeyanka

One of the leading rating agencies in the world, Fitch Ratings, has affirmed Nigeria’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at ‘B+’ with a Negative Outlook.

A statement issued yesterday by the firm explained that Nigeria’s ratings were supported by its large and diversified economy, significant oil reserves, its net external creditor position, low external debt service ratio and large domestic debt market.

According to Fitch, these were balanced against relatively low per capita GDP, an exceptionally narrow fiscal revenue base and a weak business environment.

It added that the Negative Outlook reflects the downside risks from rising government indebtedness, and the possibility of a reversal of recent improvements in foreign currency (FX) liquidity and a faltering of the still fragile economic recovery.

Fitch forecasts growth of 1.5% in 2017 and 2.6% in 2018, following Nigeria’s first contraction in 25 years in 2016. GDP growth continued to contract in 1Q17, but by less than in the previous four quarters.

The recovery will be driven mainly by increased FX availability to the non-oil economy and fiscal stimulus, as higher oil revenue and various funding initiatives have raised the government’s ability to execute on capital spending plans.

However, the FX market remains far from fully transparent, domestic liquidity has also become a constraint, and the growth forecast is subject to downside risks. Inflation remains high at 16.1% in July 2017, but Fitch projects it to decline to 11% in 2019.

Crude oil production rose to 1.8 million barrels per day (mbpd) in July 2017, from 1.5 mbpd in December 2016; the increase was driven by the lifting of force majeure at the Forcados export terminal and the completion of maintenance at both Forcados and the Bonga oil field.

Fitch has revised down its expectation of full-year average production to 1.8 mbpd, which is about equal to 2016 production.

Separately, Fitch notes that the imposition of an OPEC quota may cap Nigeria’s crude production at 1.8mbpd, which could limit the oil sector’s upside potential. However, as it excludes condensate production, the quota should not affect Nigeria’s near-term production potential.

In April 2017, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) introduced the Investors & Exporters (I&E) currency window and gradually introduced further measures to improve the liquidity of this instrument.

It also intervenes actively to support the currency while keeping domestic liquidity conditions tight.

In addition, higher oil prices and increased portfolio and FDI inflows have enabled the CBN to increase its provision of FX liquidity to the market. As a result, the parallel exchange rate began to converge towards the I&E rate, currently at around NGN360 per USD, and foreign currency liquidity shortages eased.

Most activity now occurs on the I&E window, and Fitch believes that the I&E rate should now be considered the relevant exchange rate.

Fitch forecasts the general government fiscal deficit to rise slightly to 4.5% of GDP in 2017 from 4.4% in 2016. Tax revenue in the first five months of 2017 underperformed budget expectations, as in 2015-16. The current Medium Term Expenditure Framework envisages a combined NGN3.5 trillion of capital expenditures in 2017 and 2018.

In 2016, with a budget year that ran to May 2017 the government executed approximately N1.2 trillion of the N1.6 trillion forecast in the 2016 budget. Improved financing will see a stronger execution of capital expenditure plans in 2017 and subsequent years. As oil production rises and the overall economy recovers, Fitch expects that higher revenues will drive a narrowing of the general government deficit to 3.4% in 2018.

Nigeria’s general government debt stock is low at 17% of GDP at end-2016, well below the ‘B’ median of 56% of GDP, and Fitch expects only a moderate increase to 20% of GDP at end-2017.

However, low revenues present a risk to public debt sustainability. General government debt to revenue, at 297% at end-2016, is already above the ‘B’ category median of 227% and Fitch forecasts it to increase to 325% in 2017. The ratio is even higher at the federal government level.

Nigeria’s current account surplus is expected to widen slightly to 1.0% of GDP in 2017, from 0.7% in 2016.

Fitch says it expects exports to increase by about 30% in 2017 and an additional 10% in 2018, as oil production and prices increase.

However, imports, which fell by over 30% in 2016, will also rise as dollar availability increases and the non-oil economy recovers.

The international reserves position has increased to USD30.8 billion as of end-July 2017 and it will be bolstered by expected external financing flows. Part of the reserves may be encumbered in forward contracts.

The economic contraction in 2016 and tight FX and naira liquidity weakened asset quality in the Nigerian banking sector. Non-performing loans rose to 12.8% at end-2016, up from 5.3% at end-2015. Rising impairment charges from bad loans have in turn led to capital adequacy ratios falling to 14.8% in 2016, from 16.1% at end-2015. The new FX window has aided FX liquidity for banks in 2017, but credit to the private sector (adjusted for FX valuation effects) is declining.

Nigeria’s ratings are constrained by weak governance indicators, as measured by the World Bank, as well as low human development and business environment indicators and per capita income.

Modupe Gbadeyanka is a fast-rising journalist with Business Post Nigeria. Her passion for journalism is amazing. She is willing to learn more with a view to becoming one of the best pen-pushers in Nigeria. Her role models are the duo of CNN's Richard Quest and Christiane Amanpour.

Economy

Petrol Supply up 55.4% as Daily Consumption Reaches 52.1 million Litres

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sufficient supply petrol

By Adedapo Adesanya

The supply of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), also known as petrol, increased by 55.4 per cent on a month-on-month basis to 71.5 million litres per day in November 2025 from 46 million litres per day in October.

This was contained in the November 2025 fact sheet of the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) on Monday.

The data showed that the nation’s consumption also increased by 44.5 per cent or 37.4 million litres to 52.1 million litres per day in November 2025, against 28.9 million litres in October.

The significant increase in petrol supply last month was on account of the imports by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited into the Nigerian market from both the domestic and the international market.

Domestic refineries supplied in the period stood at 17.1 million litres per day, while the average daily consumption of PMS for the month was 52.9 million litres per day.

The NMDPRA noted that no production activities were recorded in all the state-owned refineries, which included Port Harcourt, Warri, and Kaduna refineries, in the period, as the refineries remained shut down.

According to the report, the imports were aimed at building inventory and further guaranteeing supply during the peak demand period.

Other reasons for the increase, according to the NMDPRA, were due to “low supply recorded in September and October 2025, below the national demand threshold; the need for boosting national stock level to meet the peak demand period of end of year festivities, and twelve vessels programmed to discharge into October, which spilled into November.”

On gas, the average daily gas supply climbed to 4.684 billion standard cubic feet per day in November 2025, from the 3.94 bscf/d average processing level recorded in October.

The Nigeria LNG Trains 1-6 also maintained a stable processing output of 3.5 bscf/d in November 2025, but utilisation improved slightly to 73.7 per cent compared with 71.68 per cent in October.

The increase, according to the report, was driven by higher plant utilisation across processing hubs and steady export volumes from the Nigeria LNG plant in Bonny.

“As of November 2025, Nigeria’s major gas processing facilities recorded improved output and utilisation levels, with the Nigeria LNG Trains 1-6 processing 3.50 billion standard cubic feet per day at a utilisation rate of 73.70 per cent.

“Gbaran Ubie Gas Plant processed 1.250 bscf per day, operating at 71.21 per cent utilisation, while the MPNU Bonny River Terminal recorded a throughput of 0.690 bscf per day during the period. Processing activities at the Escravos Gas Plant stood at 0.680 bscf per day, representing a 62 per cent utilisation rate, whereas the Soku Gas Plant emerged as the top performer, processing 0.600 bscf per day at 96.84 per cent utilisation,” it stated.

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Economy

Secure Electronic Technology Suspends Share Reconstruction as Investors Pull Out

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Secure Electronic Technology

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

The proposed share reconstruction of a local gaming firm, Secure Electronic Technology (SET), has been suspended.

The Lagos-based company decided to shelve the exercise after negotiations with potential investors crumbled like a house of cards.

Secure Electronic Technology was earlier in talks with some foreign investors interested in the organisation.

Plans were underway to restructure the shares of the company, which are listed on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited.

However, things did not go as planned as the potential investors pulled out, leaving the board to consider others ways to move the firm forward.

Confirming this development, the company secretary, Ms Irene Attoe, in a statement, said the board would explore other means to keep the company running to deliver value to shareholders.

“This is to notify the NGX and the investing public that a meeting of the board of SET held on Tuesday, December 16, 2025, as scheduled, to consider the status of the proposed share reconstruction and recapitalisation as approved by the members at the Extraordinary General Meeting (EGM) held on April 16, 2025.

“After due deliberations, the board wishes to announce that the proposed share reconstruction will not take place as anticipated due to the inability of the parties to reach a convergence on the best and mutually viable terms.

“Thus, following an impasse in the negotiations, and the investors’ withdrawal from the transaction, the board has, in the interest of all members, decided to accept these outcomes and move ahead in the overall interest of the business.

“The board is committed to driving the strategic objectives of SEC and to seeking viable opportunities for sustainable growth of the company,” the disclosure stated.

Business Post reports that the share price of SET crashed by 3.85 per cent on Tuesday on Customs Street on Tuesday to 75 Kobo. Its 52-week high remains N1.33 and its one-year low is 45 Kobo. Today, investors transacted 39,331,958 units.

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Economy

Clea to Streamline Cross-Border Payments for African Importers

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Clea Payment platform

By Adedapo Adesanya

Clea, a blockchain-powered platform that allows African importers to pay international suppliers in USD while settling locally, has officially launched.

During its pilot phase, Clea processed more than $4 million in cross-border transactions, demonstrating strong early demand from businesses navigating the complexities of global trade.

Clea addresses persistent challenges that African importers have long struggled with, including limited FX access, unpredictable exchange rates, high bank charges, fraudulent intermediaries, and payment delays that slow or halt shipments. The continent also faces a trade-finance gap estimated at over $120 billion annually, limiting importers’ ability to access the FX and financial infrastructure needed for timely international payments by offering fast, transparent, and direct USD settlements, completed without intermediaries or banking bottlenecks.

Founded by Mr Sheriff Adedokun, Mr Iyiola Osuagwu, and Mr Sidney Egwuatu, Clea was created from the team’s own experiences dealing with unreliable international payments. The platform currently serves Nigerian importers trading with suppliers in the United States, China, and the UAE, with plans to expand into additional trade corridors.

The platform will allow local payments in Naira with instant access to Dollars as well as instant, same-day, or next-day settlement options and transparent, traceable transactions that reduce fraud risk.

Speaking on the launch, Mr Adedokun said, “Importers face unnecessary stress when payments are delayed or rejected. Clea eliminates that uncertainty by offering reliable, secure, and traceable payments completed in the importer’s own name, strengthening supplier confidence from day one.”

Mr Osuagwu, co-founder & CTO, added, “Our goal is to make global trade feel as seamless as a local transfer. By connecting local currencies to global transactions through blockchain technology, we are removing long-standing barriers that have limited African importers for years.”

According to a statement shared with Business Post, Clea is already working with shipping operators who refer merchants to the platform and is also engaging trade associations and logistics networks in key import hubs. The company remains fully bootstrapped but is open to strategic investors aligned with its mission to build a trusted global payment network for African businesses.

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