Economy
Fitch Affirms Nigeria at ‘B+’ with Negative Outlook
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
One of the leading rating agencies in the world, Fitch Ratings, has affirmed Nigeria’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at ‘B+’ with a Negative Outlook.
A statement issued yesterday by the firm explained that Nigeria’s ratings were supported by its large and diversified economy, significant oil reserves, its net external creditor position, low external debt service ratio and large domestic debt market.
According to Fitch, these were balanced against relatively low per capita GDP, an exceptionally narrow fiscal revenue base and a weak business environment.
It added that the Negative Outlook reflects the downside risks from rising government indebtedness, and the possibility of a reversal of recent improvements in foreign currency (FX) liquidity and a faltering of the still fragile economic recovery.
Fitch forecasts growth of 1.5% in 2017 and 2.6% in 2018, following Nigeria’s first contraction in 25 years in 2016. GDP growth continued to contract in 1Q17, but by less than in the previous four quarters.
The recovery will be driven mainly by increased FX availability to the non-oil economy and fiscal stimulus, as higher oil revenue and various funding initiatives have raised the government’s ability to execute on capital spending plans.
However, the FX market remains far from fully transparent, domestic liquidity has also become a constraint, and the growth forecast is subject to downside risks. Inflation remains high at 16.1% in July 2017, but Fitch projects it to decline to 11% in 2019.
Crude oil production rose to 1.8 million barrels per day (mbpd) in July 2017, from 1.5 mbpd in December 2016; the increase was driven by the lifting of force majeure at the Forcados export terminal and the completion of maintenance at both Forcados and the Bonga oil field.
Fitch has revised down its expectation of full-year average production to 1.8 mbpd, which is about equal to 2016 production.
Separately, Fitch notes that the imposition of an OPEC quota may cap Nigeria’s crude production at 1.8mbpd, which could limit the oil sector’s upside potential. However, as it excludes condensate production, the quota should not affect Nigeria’s near-term production potential.
In April 2017, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) introduced the Investors & Exporters (I&E) currency window and gradually introduced further measures to improve the liquidity of this instrument.
It also intervenes actively to support the currency while keeping domestic liquidity conditions tight.
In addition, higher oil prices and increased portfolio and FDI inflows have enabled the CBN to increase its provision of FX liquidity to the market. As a result, the parallel exchange rate began to converge towards the I&E rate, currently at around NGN360 per USD, and foreign currency liquidity shortages eased.
Most activity now occurs on the I&E window, and Fitch believes that the I&E rate should now be considered the relevant exchange rate.
Fitch forecasts the general government fiscal deficit to rise slightly to 4.5% of GDP in 2017 from 4.4% in 2016. Tax revenue in the first five months of 2017 underperformed budget expectations, as in 2015-16. The current Medium Term Expenditure Framework envisages a combined NGN3.5 trillion of capital expenditures in 2017 and 2018.
In 2016, with a budget year that ran to May 2017 the government executed approximately N1.2 trillion of the N1.6 trillion forecast in the 2016 budget. Improved financing will see a stronger execution of capital expenditure plans in 2017 and subsequent years. As oil production rises and the overall economy recovers, Fitch expects that higher revenues will drive a narrowing of the general government deficit to 3.4% in 2018.
Nigeria’s general government debt stock is low at 17% of GDP at end-2016, well below the ‘B’ median of 56% of GDP, and Fitch expects only a moderate increase to 20% of GDP at end-2017.
However, low revenues present a risk to public debt sustainability. General government debt to revenue, at 297% at end-2016, is already above the ‘B’ category median of 227% and Fitch forecasts it to increase to 325% in 2017. The ratio is even higher at the federal government level.
Nigeria’s current account surplus is expected to widen slightly to 1.0% of GDP in 2017, from 0.7% in 2016.
Fitch says it expects exports to increase by about 30% in 2017 and an additional 10% in 2018, as oil production and prices increase.
However, imports, which fell by over 30% in 2016, will also rise as dollar availability increases and the non-oil economy recovers.
The international reserves position has increased to USD30.8 billion as of end-July 2017 and it will be bolstered by expected external financing flows. Part of the reserves may be encumbered in forward contracts.
The economic contraction in 2016 and tight FX and naira liquidity weakened asset quality in the Nigerian banking sector. Non-performing loans rose to 12.8% at end-2016, up from 5.3% at end-2015. Rising impairment charges from bad loans have in turn led to capital adequacy ratios falling to 14.8% in 2016, from 16.1% at end-2015. The new FX window has aided FX liquidity for banks in 2017, but credit to the private sector (adjusted for FX valuation effects) is declining.
Nigeria’s ratings are constrained by weak governance indicators, as measured by the World Bank, as well as low human development and business environment indicators and per capita income.
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
The Governor of Lagos State, Mr Babajide Sanwo-Olu, on Monday signed the 2026 appropriation bill of N4.45 trillion into law.
At the signing ceremony in Alausa, Ikeja in the presence of his deputy, Mr Femi Hamzat, the Governor thanked the Lagos State House of Assembly, led by the Speaker, Mr Mudashiru Obasa, for passing the 2026 budget christened Budget of Shared Prosperity.
He said though the appropriation bill was increased from N4.2 trillion to N4.45 trillion, this only showed the independence of the parliament, promising that the executive arm of government will accountably implement the bill.
“On behalf of the people and the government of Lagos State, let me thank the House of Assembly. This is a budget that you have had your full input into, you have scrutinized, you have dissected, and you have taken your time to do the very constitutional provision, which is enshrined in our constitution. I want to thank you for the work you have done.
“You will notice that there is a slight increase from what we put forward, but that goes to show that the independence that you have, and the fact that you believe that Lagosians actually also deserve more, and the fact that you believe that we also can do more. So we’re excited and we’re happy with the way that you have brought it forward here to us.
“For us in the executive, it is another opportunity for us to be able to work together. It is a budget of shared prosperity that has been properly christened, and sharing prosperity means that it’s an inclusive government, it’s a budget that must carry everybody along irrespective of what part of the state, what division in the state, what sector you are from you must feel governance, you must feel the essence of why we’re in government in one form or the other,” Mr Sanwo-Olu said.
The Speaker, represented by the Majority leader of the Lagos Assembly, Mr Noheem Adams, praised the Governor for his people-oriented policies.
Business Post recalls that on November 25, 2025, Mr Sanwo-Olu presented a proposed to spend N4.237 trillion this year, higher than the N3.366 trillion approved for 2025.
But the lawmakers increased the budget to N4.445 trillion and passed it on January 8, 2026, and transmitted to the Governor for assent.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Nigeria Export Promotion Council (NEPC) has disclosed that Nigeria’s non-oil exports for the year 2025 stood at $6.1 billion.
According to the NEPC Executive Director, Mrs Nonye Ayeni, on Monday, the figure showed a growth of 11.5 per cent compared to the $5.4 billion recorded in December 2024.
Mrs Ayeni noted that while the top three export destinations for the year were the Netherlands, Brazil, and India, a total of 1.23 million metric tonnes of goods were exported to 11 Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) countries, with Ghana, Côte d’Ivoire, Togo, and Benin topping the list.
However, she explained that the exit of Burkina Faso, Mail and Niger led to a decline of trade within the ECOWAS sub-region, as well as Africa.
The three countries under military juntas have moved to restrict trade with their fellow West Africans.
A further breakdown of the 2025 report of the non-oil sector showed that 281 products, which include agricultural commodities, processed and semi-processed goods, were exported.
Top products on the list of non-oil export include cocoa, sesame seeds, urea, soya beans, and rubber, amongst others.
Nigeria has moved in recent times to boost its non-oil exports to reduce vulnerability to external shocks and price volatility associated with commodities like oil.
Despite Nigeria’s heavy dependence on oil revenues, it continues to expose the country to sudden fiscal pressures whenever global prices fall, often constraining public spending and slowing growth.
The latest NEPC data shows that by expanding exports in agriculture, manufacturing, services, and creative industries, Nigeria can build a more balanced economic structure that is better able to absorb global disruptions while sustaining steady income flows.
Market analysts have noted that strengthening non-oil exports can help Nigeria’s long-term competitiveness and foreign exchange (FX) earnings. It could also further improve the country’s trade balance, support currency stability, and attract investment by signalling economic resilience and policy credibility.
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
The economic growth outlook of Nigeria for 2026 has been upgraded by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to 4.4 per cent from the 4.2 per cent earlier projected in October 2025.
This comes a few days after the World Bank Group raised the country’s growth forecast to 4.4 per cent this year from the 3.7 per cent earlier predicted in June 2025.
In its January 2026 World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update titled Global Economy: Steady amid Divergent Forces, the IMF explained that it was lifting the growth projection for Nigeria due to improved macroeconomic conditions and reform momentum.
However, it cautioned that “escalating geopolitical tensions” in the Middle East and Ukraine could negatively impact “the [positive] outlook.”
The organisation stressed that renewed trade tensions and protectionist measures, which could heighten global uncertainty and high public debt and fiscal deficits could exert upward pressure on long-term interest rates.
The IMF also identified energy prices as a critical factor shaping the 2026 outlook, projecting that energy commodity prices are expected to decline by about 7 per cent in 2026 largely due to weak global demand.
It charged the Nigerian government to focus on rebuilding fiscal buffers, and structural reforms without delay to maintain economic stability.
The Fund also stressed that central bank independence remains critical for macroeconomic stability, especially amid heightened global volatility.
It said the ability of the country to meet its 2026 growth target would depend on the consistent implementation of reforms and its capacity to withstand domestic and external shocks as the global economy continues to adjust.
As for the global economy, the IMF noted that it anticipates a 3.3 per cent growth in 2026, reflecting a balancing of divergent forces.
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