Economy
Fitch Affirms Nigeria at ‘B+’ with Negative Outlook
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
One of the leading rating agencies in the world, Fitch Ratings, has affirmed Nigeria’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at ‘B+’ with a Negative Outlook.
A statement issued yesterday by the firm explained that Nigeria’s ratings were supported by its large and diversified economy, significant oil reserves, its net external creditor position, low external debt service ratio and large domestic debt market.
According to Fitch, these were balanced against relatively low per capita GDP, an exceptionally narrow fiscal revenue base and a weak business environment.
It added that the Negative Outlook reflects the downside risks from rising government indebtedness, and the possibility of a reversal of recent improvements in foreign currency (FX) liquidity and a faltering of the still fragile economic recovery.
Fitch forecasts growth of 1.5% in 2017 and 2.6% in 2018, following Nigeria’s first contraction in 25 years in 2016. GDP growth continued to contract in 1Q17, but by less than in the previous four quarters.
The recovery will be driven mainly by increased FX availability to the non-oil economy and fiscal stimulus, as higher oil revenue and various funding initiatives have raised the government’s ability to execute on capital spending plans.
However, the FX market remains far from fully transparent, domestic liquidity has also become a constraint, and the growth forecast is subject to downside risks. Inflation remains high at 16.1% in July 2017, but Fitch projects it to decline to 11% in 2019.
Crude oil production rose to 1.8 million barrels per day (mbpd) in July 2017, from 1.5 mbpd in December 2016; the increase was driven by the lifting of force majeure at the Forcados export terminal and the completion of maintenance at both Forcados and the Bonga oil field.
Fitch has revised down its expectation of full-year average production to 1.8 mbpd, which is about equal to 2016 production.
Separately, Fitch notes that the imposition of an OPEC quota may cap Nigeria’s crude production at 1.8mbpd, which could limit the oil sector’s upside potential. However, as it excludes condensate production, the quota should not affect Nigeria’s near-term production potential.
In April 2017, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) introduced the Investors & Exporters (I&E) currency window and gradually introduced further measures to improve the liquidity of this instrument.
It also intervenes actively to support the currency while keeping domestic liquidity conditions tight.
In addition, higher oil prices and increased portfolio and FDI inflows have enabled the CBN to increase its provision of FX liquidity to the market. As a result, the parallel exchange rate began to converge towards the I&E rate, currently at around NGN360 per USD, and foreign currency liquidity shortages eased.
Most activity now occurs on the I&E window, and Fitch believes that the I&E rate should now be considered the relevant exchange rate.
Fitch forecasts the general government fiscal deficit to rise slightly to 4.5% of GDP in 2017 from 4.4% in 2016. Tax revenue in the first five months of 2017 underperformed budget expectations, as in 2015-16. The current Medium Term Expenditure Framework envisages a combined NGN3.5 trillion of capital expenditures in 2017 and 2018.
In 2016, with a budget year that ran to May 2017 the government executed approximately N1.2 trillion of the N1.6 trillion forecast in the 2016 budget. Improved financing will see a stronger execution of capital expenditure plans in 2017 and subsequent years. As oil production rises and the overall economy recovers, Fitch expects that higher revenues will drive a narrowing of the general government deficit to 3.4% in 2018.
Nigeria’s general government debt stock is low at 17% of GDP at end-2016, well below the ‘B’ median of 56% of GDP, and Fitch expects only a moderate increase to 20% of GDP at end-2017.
However, low revenues present a risk to public debt sustainability. General government debt to revenue, at 297% at end-2016, is already above the ‘B’ category median of 227% and Fitch forecasts it to increase to 325% in 2017. The ratio is even higher at the federal government level.
Nigeria’s current account surplus is expected to widen slightly to 1.0% of GDP in 2017, from 0.7% in 2016.
Fitch says it expects exports to increase by about 30% in 2017 and an additional 10% in 2018, as oil production and prices increase.
However, imports, which fell by over 30% in 2016, will also rise as dollar availability increases and the non-oil economy recovers.
The international reserves position has increased to USD30.8 billion as of end-July 2017 and it will be bolstered by expected external financing flows. Part of the reserves may be encumbered in forward contracts.
The economic contraction in 2016 and tight FX and naira liquidity weakened asset quality in the Nigerian banking sector. Non-performing loans rose to 12.8% at end-2016, up from 5.3% at end-2015. Rising impairment charges from bad loans have in turn led to capital adequacy ratios falling to 14.8% in 2016, from 16.1% at end-2015. The new FX window has aided FX liquidity for banks in 2017, but credit to the private sector (adjusted for FX valuation effects) is declining.
Nigeria’s ratings are constrained by weak governance indicators, as measured by the World Bank, as well as low human development and business environment indicators and per capita income.
Economy
PENGASSAN Kicks Against Full Privatisation of Refineries
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (PENGASSAN) has warned against the full privatisation of the country’s government-owned refineries.
Recall that the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) is putting in place mechanisms to sell the moribund refineries in Port Harcourt, Warri, and Kaduna.
However, this has met fresh resistance, with the President of PENGASSAN, Mr Festus Osifo, saying selling a 100 per cent stake would mean the government losing total control of the refineries, a situation he warned would be detrimental to Nigeria’s energy security.
Mr Osifo said the union was advocating the sale of about 51 per cent of the government’s stake while retaining 49 per cent, which he described as being more beneficial to Nigerians.
“PENGASSAN, even before the time of Comrade Peter Esele, had been advocating that government should sell its shares. The reason why we don’t want government to sell it 100 per cent to private investors is because of the issue bordering on energy security,” he said on Channels Television, late on Sunday.
“So, what we have advocated is what I have said earlier. If government sells 51 per cent stake in the refinery, what is going to happen? They will lose control, so that is actually selling. But for the benefit of Nigerians, retain 49 per cent of it.“
The PENGASSAN leader maintained that if the government had heeded the union’s advice in the past, the oil industry would be in a better state than it is today.
He addressed concerns in some quarters over whether investors would be willing to buy stakes in government-owned refineries, insisting that there are investors who would be interested.
“Yes, there are investors who surely will be willing to buy a stake in the refinery because our population in Nigeria is quite huge, and those refineries, when well maintained without political pressures and political interference, will work,” he said.
However, Mr Osifo warned that even if the government decides to sell a 51 per cent stake, it must ensure that a complete valuation is carried out to avoid selling the refineries cheaply.
Economy
SEC Gives Capital Market Operators Deadline to Renew Registration
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
Capital market operators have been given a deadline by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for the renewal of their registration.
A statement from the regulator said CMOs have till Saturday, January 31, 2026, to renew their registration, and to make the process seamless, an electronic receipt and processing of applications would commence in the first quarter of 2026.
“These initiatives reflect our commitment to leveraging technology for faster, more transparent, and efficient regulatory processes.
“The commission is taking deliberate steps to make regulatory processes faster, more transparent, and technology-driven. We are investing in automation, database-supervision, and secure infrastructure to improve how we interact with the market,” the Director General of SEC, Mr Emomotimi Agama, was quoted as saying in the statement during an interview in Abuja over the weekend.
He noted that through the digital transformation portal, the organisation has automated registration and licensing end-to-end as operators can now submit applications, upload documents, and track approvals online, cutting down manual processing time and reducing the need for physical visits.
According to him, the agency has also rolled out the Commercial Paper issuance module, which allows operators to file documents, monitor progress, and receive approvals electronically while feedback from early users shows a clear improvement in turnaround time.
“Work is ongoing to automate quarterly and annual returns submissions, with structured templates and system checks to ensure accuracy. A returns analytics dashboard is also in development to support risk based supervision and exception reporting.
“To back these changes, we have started upgrading our IT infrastructure, servers, storage, networks, and security layers, to boost speed and reliability.
“Selective cloud migration is underway for platforms that need scalability and external access, while core internal systems remain on premisev5p for now as we assess security and cost implications.
“At the same time, we are strengthening data integrity and cybersecurity with vulnerability assessments and planned penetration testing once automation and migration phases are stable.
“These efforts show our commitment to building a modern, resilient regulatory environment that supports efficiency, investor confidence, and market stability,” he stated.
Mr Agama affirmed that the nation’s capital market was clearly on a path toward digital transformation adding that there is an urgent need for regulatory clarity on advanced technologies, targeted support for smaller firms, and capacity-building initiatives.
“A phased and proportionate approach to regulating emerging technologies such as AI is essential, complemented by internal readiness through supervisory technology tools.
“Furthermore, investor education, particularly among younger demographics, will be critical to future-proof participation and drive fintech adoption.
“Innovation is vital, but it must be accompanied by responsibility. As operators embrace automation, artificial intelligence, and data-driven tools, they bear a duty to ensure ethical, secure, and compliant deployment. Safeguarding investor data, preventing market abuse, and maintaining operational resilience are non-negotiable,” he declared.
The SEC DG said that ultimately, responsible technology adoption is about building trust, the cornerstone of our markets saying that trust thrives on fairness, transparency, accountability, and regulatory compliance.
He, therefore, urged operators to uphold these principles adding that it will not only protect investors and systemic stability but also strengthen the long-term credibility and competitiveness of the Nigerian capital market.
Economy
No Discrepancies in Harmonised, Gazetted Tax Laws—Oyedele
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Chairman of the Presidential Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms Committee, Mr Taiwo Oyedele, has said there are no discrepancies in the tax laws passed by the National Assembly and the gazetted versions made available to the public.
Last week, a member of the House of Representatives, Mr Abdussamad Dasuki, raised worries about the differences between its version and that gazetted by the presidency.
However, speaking on Channels Television’s Morning Brief on Monday, Mr Oyedele claimed what has been circulating in the media was fake.
“Before you can say there is a difference between what was gazetted and what was passed, we have what has not been gazetted. We don’t have what was passed,” he said.
“The official harmonised bills certified by the clerk, which the National Assembly sent to the President, we don’t have a copy to compare. Only the lawmakers can say authoritatively what we sent.
“It should be the House of Representatives or Senate version. It should be the harmonised version certified by the clerk. Even me, I cannot say that I have it. I only have what was presented to Mr President to sign.”
Mr Oyedele stated that he reached out to the House of Representatives Committee regarding a particular Section 41 (8), which states, “You have to pay a deposit of 20 per cent.”
He noted that the response given by the committee was that its members had not met on the issue.
“I know that particular provision is not in the final gazette, but it was in the draft gazette. Some people decided that they should write the report of the committee before the committee had met, and it had circulated everywhere.
“What is out there in the media did not come from the committee set up by the House of Representatives. I think we should allow them do the investigation,” Mr Oyedele added.
In June, President Bola Tinubu signed the four tax reform bills into law, marking what the government has described as the most significant overhaul of the country’s tax system in decades.
The tax reform laws, which faced stiff opposition from federal lawmakers from the northern part of the country before their passage, are scheduled to take effect on January 1, 2026.
The laws include the Nigeria Tax Act, the Nigeria Tax Administration Act, the Nigeria Revenue Service (Establishment) Act, and the Joint Revenue Board (Establishment) Act, all operating under a single authority, the Nigeria Revenue Service.
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