Economy
Isolated Trading Blocs Could Trigger 4% GDP Decline for Sub-Saharan Africa—IMF
By Adedapo Adesanya
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that Sub-Saharan Africa, which includes Nigeria, could stand to lose the most if the world were split into two isolated trading blocs centred around China or the United States and the European Union (EU).
Sub-Saharan Africa refers to countries of the African continent that are not considered part of North Africa.
According to estimates released on Monday, sub-Saharan African economies could experience a permanent decline of up to 4 per cent of the real gross domestic product after 10 years, which is larger than what many countries experienced during the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-09.
It noted that economic and trade alliances with new economic partners, predominantly China, have benefited the region but have also made countries reliant on imports of food and energy more susceptible to global shocks, including disruptions from the surge in trade restrictions following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
“If geopolitical tensions were to escalate, countries could be hit by higher import prices or even lose access to key export markets—about half of the region’s value of international trade could be impacted,” the IMF said.
The lender warned that losses could be compounded if capital flows between trade blocs were cut off due to geopolitical tensions.
“The region could lose an estimated $10 billion of foreign direct investment (FDI) and official development assistance inflows, which is about half a per cent of GDP a year (based on an average 2017–19 estimate). The reduction in FDI, in the long run, could also hinder much-needed technology transfer.”
The IMF noted that the countries looking to restructure their debt, deepening geoeconomic fragmentation could also worsen coordination problems among creditors.
It advocated the need for strategic decoupling, saying the region would fare better if only the US/EU cut ties with Russia and sub-Saharan African countries continued to trade freely.
In this scenario, trade flows would be diverted towards the rest of the world, creating opportunities for new partnerships and possibly boosting intra-regional trade.
This is “because some African countries benefit from access to new export markets and cheaper imports, the region as a whole would not incur a GDP loss. Oil exporters supplying energy to Europe could even gain.”
To better manage shocks, IMF advised that countries need to build resilience. “This can be done by strengthening the ongoing regional trade integration under the African Continental Free Trade Area, which will require reducing tariff and non-tariff trade barriers, strengthening efficiency in customs, leveraging digitalization, and closing the infrastructure gaps.
“Deepening domestic financial markets can also broaden sources of financing and lower the volatility associated with relying too much on foreign inflows,” the IMF noted.
It also noted that to take advantage of the potential shifts in trade and FDI flows, countries in the region can try to identify and nurture sectors that may benefit from trade diversion, “for example, energy. Commodity exporters in the region could potentially displace much of Russia’s energy market share in Europe.”
“Countries can also rely on trade promotion agencies to help identify potential opportunities, build the necessary skills and capacity for exports, and eventually re-orient production to take advantage of new trade flows. Improving the business environment, such as by lowering entry, regulatory, and tax barriers, could also help.”
The lender also said multilateral institutions would need to continue to facilitate dialogue among nations to promote economic integration and cooperation.
As MSMEs across the South-East seek opportunities for growth, market expansion and cross-border trade, Stanbic IBTC, in partnership with the Anambra State Government, convened the Nigeria Business Summit Regional Tour in Onitsha to equip businesses with practical solutions for sustainable growth.
The summit, organised in collaboration with the Anambra State Ministry of Commerce, Industry and Trade, brought together government officials, business leaders, trade associations, development partners and entrepreneurs to explore practical pathways for economic growth, business sustainability and increased participation in local and international trade.
Speaking at the event, which took place on Wednesday, 29 July 2026, Honourable Nonso Chukwuma Ebonwu, Commissioner for Commerce and Industry, Anambra State, highlighted the importance of stronger partnerships between government, financial institutions and the private sector in creating an environment where businesses can thrive and contribute meaningfully to economic growth.
“Sustainable economic development requires strong partnerships between the public and private sectors. Financial institutions such as Stanbic IBTC have an important role to play by providing not only access to finance but also business advisory services, capacity building and the knowledge that enables businesses to grow sustainably,” he said.
Given Onitsha’s strategic position as a commercial hub, discussions centred on access to finance, enterprise development, business sustainability and opportunities for expansion into new markets. Stanbic IBTC’s Trade Team also provided practical insights into trade and export opportunities available to businesses operating within the South-East’s manufacturing and distribution value chains, highlighting strategies that can help enterprises improve competitiveness and unlock new growth opportunities.
Commenting on Stanbic IBTC’s commitment to supporting Nigerian businesses, Chuma Nwokocha, Chief Executive, Stanbic IBTC Holdings, said:
“We recognise the critical role businesses play in driving economic growth, creating jobs and fostering innovation. Supporting their growth remains central to our purpose of driving Africa’s growth, and we will continue to provide the solutions, partnerships and platforms they need to thrive.”
Also commenting on Stanbic IBTC’s support for Nigerian businesses, Remy Osuagwu, Executive Director, Business and Commercial Banking, Stanbic IBTC Bank, said:
“Our commitment to supporting businesses is unrelenting. Through strategic partnerships and platforms such as the Nigeria Business Summit Regional Tour, we are connecting entrepreneurs to the knowledge, networks and financial solutions needed to scale their businesses and compete more effectively in today’s evolving marketplace.”
The summit also highlighted Stanbic IBTC’s focus on providing businesses with access to the capital, insights and connections needed to achieve sustainable growth. This commitment aligns with the strategic direction of the bank’s Enterprise Banking business, led by Olajumoke Bello, as Stanbic IBTC continues to deepen engagement with MSMEs and growth-focused businesses across Nigeria.
The Onitsha engagement builds on successful editions of the Nigeria Business Summit Regional Tour previously held in Katsina, Aba and Ibadan. Through the initiative, Stanbic IBTC continues to work with public and private sector stakeholders to equip entrepreneurs with practical insights, strategic partnerships and business solutions that support sustainable growth.
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
The board of Presco Plc has proposed the payment of an interim dividend of N10 per share to shareholders of the organisation for the first six months of this year.
This information was conveyed in the unaudited financial statements of the company released to the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited.
In the results for the half-year ended June 30, 2026, the fully integrated agro-industrial firm said the cash reward reinforces its commitment to delivering consistent shareholder returns.
It further assured that looking ahead, it remains focused on disciplined capital allocation, operational efficiency and long-term value creation while navigating evolving market conditions.
A look at the key financial highlights of the results showed that revenue was relatively stable at about N199.0 billion in the first half of 2026 and the same period of 2025 amid a high-cost operating environment and softer crude palm oil prices.
However, the pre-tax profit rose by 9.3 per cent to N122.2 billion from N119.9 billion as result of a 31.9 per cent reduction in financing costs.
Further, the Edo State-based company posted an EBITDA of N123.1 billion, which yielded a margin of 61.9 per cent, as the organisation strengthened its balance sheet, reducing total liabilities by 42.5 per cent to N277.8 billion, while equity grew 13.8 per cent to N503.6 billion, with a current ratio of 345.6 per cent, which underscores robust liquidity.
“Our H1 2026 performance underscores the strength of our operational model in a challenging environment. The 9.3 per cent growth in profit before tax, driven largely by a 31.9 per cent reduction in financing costs, reflects our deliberate focus on cost optimisation and balance sheet discipline.
“With equity up 13.8 per cent and liabilities down by 42.5 per cent, we have further fortified our financial foundation.
“The proposed interim dividend of N10 per share signals our confidence in the business’s trajectory and our commitment to rewarding shareholders,” the chief executive of Presco, Mr Reji George, stated.
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
The ex-depot prices of the two major petroleum products in the country, Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), commonly known as petrol, and Automotive Gas Oil (Diesel), have been slashed by Dangote Petroleum Refinery.
The company, in a statement on Wednesday, disclosed that while petrol is now N1,165 per litre, diesel is now N1,570 per litre.
The energy firm said it slashed the prices to reaffirm its commitment to providing affordable, high-quality petroleum products to the Nigerian market.
The latest cut in the price of PMS represents N50, as it was previously sold to marketers at N1,215 per litre, while diesel witnessed an N80 reduction, as it was formerly being sold at N1,650 per litre.
Dangote Refinery stated that the downward price review reflects its ongoing efforts to enhance energy affordability, improve access to refined petroleum products, and support economic activities across Nigeria, saying it remains committed to ensuring stable supply while leveraging operational efficiencies to deliver value to consumers, businesses, and stakeholders.
As Africa’s largest refinery, Dangote Petroleum Refinery continues to play a pivotal role in strengthening Nigeria’s energy security, reducing reliance on imports, and supporting the nation’s economic development through the supply of world-class petroleum products.
The company reaffirmed its dedication to contributing to the growth of the Nigerian economy and passing on the benefits of improved operational efficiencies to consumers whenever market conditions permit.
