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Moody’s Downgrades Dangote Cement Rating to B1

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Dangote Cement distributors

By Modupe Gbadeyanka

The corporate family rating (CFR) of Dangote Cement Plc has been downgraded by Moody’s Investors Service to B1 from Ba3.

A statement issued by Moody’s said Dangote Cement’s probability of default rating was downgraded to B1-PD from Ba3-PD, but said the firm’s national scale rating (NSR) remains unaffected at Aaa.ng with outlook on the ratings still stable.

Explaining the reason it downgraded the cement producer’s ratings, Moody’s said it was as a result of the downgrade of Nigeria’s rating to B2 from B1.

“We have downgraded Dangote Cement because it is not totally immune from Nigeria’s continuing economic challenges which the country’s government has been slow in responding to,” stated Douglas Rowlings, Vice President, Senior Analyst and lead analyst for Dangote Cement Plc at Moody’s.

“But Dangote Cement’s rating is one notch above the Nigerian sovereign’s to reflect its resilient and strong credit profile and management’s continuing success in navigating Nigeria’s tough operating environment,” added Mr Rowlings.

Dangote Cement’s B1 CFR, one notch above the Government of Nigeria’s B2 rating considers the company’s stronger intrinsic credit quality balanced against the meaningful linkage and limited ability to withstand stress at the Nigerian sovereign or macroeconomic level.

The CFR also reflects the track record of demonstrated financial support from a larger and more diversified parent, Dangote Industries Limited (DIL).

This affords additional parent level financial strength by being part of a broader diversified group of companies under the DIL umbrella, the rating agency said.

Dangote Cement has a very strong credit profile, and would likely be rated higher without its linkage with Nigeria, in part because of its leverage which registered 1.3x gross debt/EBITDA for the last 12 months ended September 30, 2017, Moody’s said in a statement issued on November 10, 2017.

This is significantly low relative to global peers, even those rated investment grade. The strong standalone profile also incorporates high operating margins trending above 50%; high interest coverage as measured by EBIT/interest expense trending above 8x over the next 18 months; and conservative funding policies with debt funding matched to the currency of cash flow generation and prudent financial policies which will ensure sustenance of strong credit metrics through operating and project build cycles, it added.

The statement noted that Dangote’s sales and margins continue to benefit from the ongoing activity in the Nigerian economy.

Nevertheless Dangote remains at this stage strongly linked to Nigeria and its economy, with 89 percent of its EBITDA anchored in the country for the 9 months ended September 30, 2017.

Its investments in new plant capacity in other sub Saharan countries will provide more diversification in future but it will take several years before there is a meaningful diversification of revenue, profits and cashflows away from the Nigerian economy. Pan-African volumes expected to reach 40% of total sales volumes by 2020.

The ratings also factor in the relatively small scale level of cement production when compared to global peers along with production of 23.6 million tonnes (mt) for the Financial Year Ended (FYE) 31 December 2016; and a concentration of production in Nigeria, representing around 68% of revenues for the FYE 2016.

DCP’s ratings are further predicated upon a continuing growing cement market share of 65% in Nigeria as Africa’s most populous country and its largest economy where GDP is expected to reset to growth levels of around 2.5% in 2017 despite the ensuing low oil price environment; protected domestic production in the various African markets in which it operates, given on-going restrictions on imports; and competitive advantage brought about by an intention to always be the lowest cost cement producer in the markets where it operates, with a differentiated offering in Nigeria through access to low cost coal as an energy resource and a comprehensive fleet network, the statement further said.

Under Moody’s forecasts DCP’s liquidity profile is sufficient to meet the company’s cash needs over the next 12 months. Moody’s estimates that funds from operations generation of N641 billion ($1.8 billion) for the next 12 months and an unrestricted cash balance of N130 billion ($361 million) as of September 30, 2017 are sufficient to cover maintenance capex of N11 billion ($31 million), planned expansion capex of N198 billion ($550 million) and dividends of N254 billion ($705 million). Uncommitted expansion capex will require external funding.

This will be supported by DCP’s four committed trade finance facilities for a total amount of N130 billion ($401 million) to be used to cover import payments via issuance of letters of credit.

Additionally, DCP’s liquidity benefits from proven ongoing support from DIL. Although Moody’s does not expect that DCP would require liquidity support from DIL, the rating agency expects that this would be forthcoming if ever needed.

It stated that the stable ratings outlook reflects Moody’s expectation that DCP will continue to maximize output from existing plants outside Nigeria, while continuing to observe conservative financial policies. At the same time, the stable outlook assumes the ability to refinance maturing debt predominantly due to DIL through a Nigerian naira denominated bond issuance.

Moody’s said a downgrade of DCP’s rating would result if there was a move away from its conservative financial policies most notably its matching of the currency of its underlying cash flow generation to that of its debt commitments.

Downward pressure on the ratings could also arise should liquidity become pressured; adjusted debt to EBITDA trend above 4x; adjusted EBIT to interest expense trend below 2.5x; or operating margins fall below 20% on a sustained basis.

Any downward momentum on the Federal Government of Nigeria’s rating could also exert pressure on DCP’s ratings.

Similarly, the introduction of special taxes, levies or other punitive measures in respect of profits or cashflow by the government of Nigeria could put downward pressure on the ratings and/or outlook.

Upward pressure on the ratings is constrained by the Government of Nigeria’s local currency issuer rating of B2 as Moody’s considers a strong interlinkage with DCP’s ratings due to the high revenue contribution from its domestic operations which contains the company to be rated one rating level above the sovereign.

Modupe Gbadeyanka is a fast-rising journalist with Business Post Nigeria. Her passion for journalism is amazing. She is willing to learn more with a view to becoming one of the best pen-pushers in Nigeria. Her role models are the duo of CNN's Richard Quest and Christiane Amanpour.

Economy

Budget Office Explains Reason for Quarterly Report Delay

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2026 budget tinubu

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Budget Office of the Federation has defended the delay in publishing three outstanding Quarterly Budget Implementation Reports, saying the situation arose from the repeal and re-enactment of the 2025 Appropriation Act and the subsequent extension of the budget’s implementation period to June 2026.

The last publication on the budget office’s website is Q3 2025, a development that breaks the Fiscal Responsibility Act amid the country’s rising borrowing costs and mounting fiscal pressure.

In a clarification statement, the DG of the Budget Office, Mr Tanimu Yakubu, said public concerns over the absence of the reports must be understood within the constitutional and fiscal framework governing public finance administration in Nigeria, stressing that a fiscal year is not strictly tied to the January–December calendar, but is instead a legislative construct defined by appropriation laws passed by the National Assembly.

“The fiscal year is not necessarily synonymous with the calendar year. The calendar year is a fixed chronological construct of twelve months running from January to December.

“The fiscal year, however, is a juridical and legislative creation whose duration, commencement, and terminal date are determined by the extant appropriation framework enacted by law,” he said.

Mr Yakubu claimed that the recent reporting delay followed the Repeal and Re-enactment of the 2025 Appropriation Act concluded in December 2025, alongside an extension of the budget’s execution period.

These changes, he said, effectively altered the operational timeline for fiscal reporting and necessitated comprehensive reconciliations before publication of the affected quarterly reports.

“In substance and in law, therefore, the fiscal year becomes not merely a chronological concept, but a legislatively sustained expenditure window,” he explained.

The Budget Office further noted that Nigeria’s fiscal practice has historically accommodated adjustments such as supplementary budgets, rollover provisions, and implementation extensions, particularly for capital projects, to ensure continuity and prevent wastage of public resources.

It added that similar practices exist in other jurisdictions, where fiscal years are defined by law rather than fixed to the calendar year.

Citing constitutional provisions, the office referenced Sections 80 and 81 of the 1999 Constitution (as amended), which require that public expenditure be backed by appropriation laws rather than a rigid annual cycle. It maintained that as long as legislative authority exists, expenditure remains valid within the approved framework.

The DG also pointed to judicial precedents underscoring the supremacy of the National Assembly in public finance matters, noting that executive spending must align with statutory approval.

He also explained that the current reconciliation process involves revenue performance reviews, cash flow adjustments, debt analysis, and inter-agency coordination to ensure accuracy and audit integrity of the outstanding reports.

Mr Yakubu then assured that the missing quarterly reports are being finalised and will be released in phases in the coming weeks, adding that reforms are underway to strengthen digital reporting systems and improve transparency and timeliness in fiscal data publication.

In his words, “Accordingly, the outstanding Quarterly Budget Implementation Reports are being finalised and will be released in phases over the coming weeks.

“In parallel, the Budget Office is strengthening its digital reporting architecture, data harmonisation systems, and institutional coordination mechanisms to support more comprehensive, timely, and analytically robust fiscal reporting in line with evolving international public finance reporting standards.”

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Economy

NGX Group Advances Investor Education Drive with Digital Retail Engagement Initiative

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NGX Group Shares

Nigerian Exchange Group has intensified its investor education drive through a digital engagement initiative aimed at improving financial literacy and deepening retail participation in the Nigerian capital market.

The Group recently hosted an X Space session themed Follow the Fundamentals: A Beginner’s Guide to the Stock Market, reaching over 5,000 users, largely young Nigerians, first-time investors, and retail market participants seeking to better understand investment opportunities in the capital market.

Featuring social media investment influencer Omiete Inko-Tariah, alongside representatives from Nigerian Exchange Limited and NGX Regulation Limited, the session demystified key concepts around market operations, investor protection, and safe participation. Beyond education, it served as an open forum where retail investors engaged directly with market stakeholders on issues of confidence, transparency, and accessibility.

Speaking on the initiative, Clifford Akpolo, Head, Group Communications and Partnerships at NGX Group, said: “Deepening retail participation is critical to building a more resilient, inclusive, and sustainable capital market. At NGX Group, we believe financial literacy is not just an educational responsibility; it is a strategic imperative for strengthening investor confidence, improving market accessibility, and expanding long-term wealth creation opportunities for Nigerians. Through digital platforms like this, we are leveraging innovation to connect with the next generation of investors and democratize access to market knowledge.”

The initiative forms part of NGX Group’s broader sustainability agenda under its Community pillar, which focuses on advancing financial literacy, inclusion, and economic empowerment through education-driven and stakeholder-focused programmes.

Following the success of this edition, NGX Group plans to sustain similar engagements as part of its ongoing commitment to strengthening investor confidence, deepening retail participation, and building a more resilient and inclusive investment ecosystem.

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Economy

NGX Posts Turnover of 7.772 billion Equities Worth N374bn in Five Days

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VFD Group Lists NGX

By Dipo Olowookere

A total turnover of 7.772 billion equities worth N374.040 billion in 402,945 deals was recorded by the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited last week compared with the 7.075 billion equities worth N324.351 billion traded in 474,436 deals a week earlier.

Data from the stock exchange showed that the financial services industry led the activity chart with 4.774 billion shares valued at N196.352 billion in 153,515 deals, contributing 61.43 per cent and 52.49 per cent to the total trading volume and value, respectively.

The ICT segment followed with 1.118 billion stocks worth N57.825 billion in 44,622 deals, and the services sector transacted 601.745 million equities for N6.984 billion in 27,653 deals.

First Holdco, UBA, and Chams accounted for 2.195 billion shares worth N99.820 billion in 30,056 deals, contributing 28.24 per cent and 26.69 per cent to the total trading volume and value, respectively.

Berger Pains led the gainers’ chart after gaining 55.57 per cent to trade at N168.95, SCOA Nigeria improved by 45.92 per cent to N33.05, DAAR Communications expanded by 42.41 per cent to N2.25, Fidson rose by 32.52 per cent to N136.50, and Learn Africa grew by 32.32 per cent to N10.85.

On the flip side, Zichis led the losers’ table after it gave up 11.78 per cent to settle at N29.43, The Initiates declined by 10.03 per cent to N32.30, NPF Microfinance Bank depreciated by 10.00 per cent to N5.76, NCR Nigeria shed 10.00 per cent to quote at N179.10, and Custodian Investment crashed by 9.52 per cent to N81.25.

At the close of transactions in the five-day trading week, 74 equities appreciated versus 69 equities in the previous week, 24 stocks depreciated versus 36 stocks a week earlier, and 48 shares closed flat versus 41 shares of the preceding week.

Last week, the All-Share Index (ASI) gained 2.27 per cent to finish at 250,330.92 points, and the market capitalisation chalked up 2.13 per cent to end at N160.444 trillion.

Similarly, all other indices finished higher apart from the energy, sovereign bond, and commodity indices, which fell by 1.19 per cent, 0.08 per cent and 0.80 per cent, respectively.

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