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Naira May Remain Under Pressure in 2026—Yemi Kale

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2025 Vanguard Economic Discourse Yemi Kale

By Adedapo Adesanya

Top economist, Mr Yemi Kale, has projected that the Naira will remain under pressure against the United States Dollar in 2026, due to some external pressures.

Mr Kale, who is currently the Senior Economist at Africa Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) and formerly the Statistician-General of Nigeria, made the disclosure while delivering his keynote speech at the FirstBank Nigeria Economic Outlook 2026.

He outlines three scenario-based forecasts for the Dollar/Naira exchange rate, reflecting varying assumptions around oil prices, foreign-exchange (FX) inflows, inflation trends, and policy consistency.

Under the baseline scenario, the Naira is projected to trade around N1,350/$1–N1,450/$1 by the end of 2026.

According to the outlook, key assumptions include moderate improvement in Nigeria’s FX reserves and oil export revenues, relative stability in FX policy by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), gradual decline in inflation, and the absence of major external shocks, such as a sharp oil price collapse or a global Dollar surge.

It is projected that by June 2026, Naira will trade at approximately N1,313 to the Dollar, and around N1,340/$1 by December 2026.

The outlook notes that currency risks remain elevated, justifying a cautious baseline forecast rather than expectations of strong appreciation.

It noted that the Naira would remain under pressure but avoid a sharp collapse, pointing to moderate depreciation or a mild recovery from weaker levels.

In a more positive outlook, the Naira could strengthen to between N1,200 and N1,300 per Dollar by the end of 2026.

Key assumptions include strong oil price recovery or successful export diversification, effective FX reforms by the CBN, improved liquidity, and narrower gaps between official and parallel markets, and significant decline in inflation, restoring investor confidence.

He noted that this could be buoyed by increased FX inflows from oil, gas, remittances, and non-oil exports

A weaker global US Dollar, which would support emerging-market currencies.

According to the outlook, even at N1,200, the Naira would remain significantly weaker than historical benchmarks, underscoring persistent structural challenges.

In the worst-case scenario projects the Naira could weaken to N1,550–N1,650 or beyond by the end of 2026.

Key assumptions are weak oil prices or production disruptions reducing FX inflows, deepening FX liquidity crisis and forced currency devaluation, and rising inflation, widening fiscal deficits, and erosion of investor confidence

While extreme, the scenario remains plausible given Nigeria’s structural vulnerabilities, including import dependence, FX mismatches, and inflationary pressures.

The outlook projects a gradual rebuild of Nigeria’s external reserves toward $45 billion by 2027, driven by higher remittance inflows, improved oil receipts, and portfolio investment re-entries.

He noted that policy consistency, particularly transparent FX management and fiscal discipline, is critical to sustaining investor confidence and strengthening Nigeria’s balance-of-payments position.

He added that local refining capacity could also help reduce reliance on petroleum imports, save billions of Dollars in FX annually, while export growth in agriculture, manufacturing, and services under the AfCFTA is expanding Nigeria’s non-oil FX base.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

Economy

Persistent Grid Collapse Poses Direct Threat to Manufacturers, MSMEs—LCCI

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LCCI

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) has decried the frequent grid disturbances, saying they pose a grave threat to the economy, particularly to manufacturers and small businesses.

The LCCI concern came after the second national grid collapse within four days on Tuesday, which plunged the country into widespread outage and disrupted economic activity nationwide. It followed up from the 12 of such occurrences which were recorded in 2025.

Speaking about the issue, the director general of LCCI, Mrs Chinyere Almona, said, “This recurrence underscores deep structural and operational weaknesses in the power transmission system and poses a direct threat to manufacturers, MSMEs, and Nigeria’s overall business environment at a critical moment when the economy is expected to move from crisis management and stabilisation (2023–2025) into a consolidation phase in 2026.”

According to her, based on recent patterns and in the absence of urgent structural fixes, the LCCI estimates that Nigeria could experience tens of grid collapses in 2026 under a ‘business-as-usual’ scenario.

She noted that with immediate reforms, system upgrades, and strict operational discipline, this figure can be reduced to zero incidents, moving the country closer to grid reliability benchmarks required for economic consolidation.

Mrs Almona noted that repeated grid failures impose severe costs on businesses through lost production hours, damaged equipment, increased reliance on self-generation, higher operating expenses, and reduced competitiveness, saying that these disruptions weaken investor confidence, worsen inflationary pressures, and undermine the credibility of economic reforms.

She called on the federal government to take a decisive and transparent position by instituting an independent forensic audit of the national grid covering transmission infrastructure integrity, system protection schemes, operational protocols, and governance of grid management, adding that the findings should form a critical part of a grid performance system reform in the short term.

“Without urgent intervention, recurring grid collapses will continue to undermine the government’s objective of entering a consolidation phase in 2026, while constraining productivity, exports, and job creation. A reliable power supply is foundational to industrialisation, competitiveness, and macroeconomic stability.

“The Chamber reiterates that restoring grid stability must be treated as an economic emergency, not merely a technical issue. At this stage, the causes of these collapses should be well understood, better managed, and effectively prevented. What we are witnessing today is therefore unacceptable and calls for decisive, coordinated action to safeguard national economic performance,” the LCCI DG said.

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Economy

Court Convicts AAC Consulting Over N30.5m Theft from Chevron Contract Staff

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EFCC Abuja forex traders

By Adedapo Adesanya

A Lagos Special Offences Court has convicted AAC Consulting Limited for stealing over N30.5 million belonging to contract staff of Chevron Nigeria Limited.

The judge, Justice Rahman Oshodi, found the firm guilty of stealing N30,564,635.81, following its prosecution by the Lagos Zonal Directorate 1 of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC).

The conviction followed the company’s guilty plea to an amended one-count charge of stealing, contrary to Section 285(1) of the Criminal Code, Laws of Lagos State, 2011, sealing a long-running fraud case that exposed how outsourced workers’ salaries were diverted by their own payroll handlers.

The case dates back to June 5, 2023, when AAC Consulting Limited and its Managing Director, Anthony Adeoye, were arraigned on a 50-count charge bordering on stealing and issuance of dud cheques. Both defendants initially pleaded not guilty, forcing the EFCC to open full trial.

During proceedings, prosecuting counsel, Mr I.O. Daramola, called two witnesses, while several documents were tendered and admitted as exhibits by the court to establish how the funds meant for Chevron contract staff were allegedly misappropriated.

However, the trial took a dramatic turn after the full repayment of the stolen sum to the petitioner in December 2023.

Following the refund, the defendants changed their plea to “guilty”, prompting the EFCC to amend the charge, dropping the multiple counts and proceeding against the company alone on a single count of stealing.

The amended charge stated that AAC Consulting Limited, “on or about April 27, 2013, at Lagos, dishonestly converted to its own use the aggregate sum of N30,564,635.81, property of contract staff of Chevron Nigeria Limited.”

After reviewing the plea and evidence before the court, Justice Oshodi convicted the company and imposed a N5 million fine, with a stern warning.

The court ordered that the fine must be paid within 14 days, failing which AAC Consulting Limited will be wound up.

The conviction sends a strong message to outsourcing and payroll management firms, particularly those handling funds for multinational oil companies, that refund of stolen money does not erase criminal liability.

For the affected Chevron contract staff, the judgment closes a 13-year chapter of financial abuse, while reinforcing EFCC’s stance that corporate entities will be held accountable for payroll fraud and breach of trust in Nigeria’s corporate and labour ecosystem.

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Economy

Nigerian Startups Account for 8% of Africa’s $3.8bn Raise in 2025

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Nigerian startups

By Adedapo Adesanya

Nigeria recorded its lowest funding share since 2019 but the highest number of deals in 2025, according to Africa Investment Report 2025 published by Briter, a market intelligence platform focused on emerging markets.

According to the report, African companies disclosed a total of $3.8 billion in funding in 2025, representing a 32 per cent increase in deal volume and an 8 per cent rise in the number of announced transactions compared to the previous year ($2.8 billion in 2024).

However, Nigeria accounted for only 8 per cent of total funding, trailing behind South Africa (32 per cent), Kenya (29 per cent), and Egypt (15 per cent).

Despite the drop in funding share, Nigeria’s performance reflects a shift toward smaller, early- and growth-stage transactions, rather than mega-deals. The country recorded the highest number of deals on the continent, indicating strong entrepreneurial activity but limited access to large-ticket funding.

According to Briter, among the ‘Big Four’, Nigeria raised around $315 million alone last year from 205 estimated deals compared to South Africa which raised $1.2 billion from 130 deals, Kenya followed with $1.1 billion from around 16o deals, and Egypt came third with $595 million in 115 deals.

Nigeria which used to occupy the top two among this group has faced steep challenges including the 2023 currency devaluation which made it harder for startups to generate Dollar returns.

As a result, Briter explains that fewer mega-rounds happened in Nigeria, making the totals lower. However, it allowed for newer, upcoming startups to raise in 2025.

The report noted that fintech and digital financial services remained the most funded sector by both value and deal count, reinforcing Nigeria’s position as Africa’s fintech hub. However, climate-focused solutions recorded the fastest growth, raising more than three times their 2024 total, with solar energy emerging as the most funded category.

The surge in solar investment reflects growing investor appetite for infrastructure-like clean energy projects offering predictable returns, particularly in countries like Nigeria where power deficits remain a major economic constraint.

Briter noted that Artificial Intelligence (AI) attracted increased attention from investors in 2025, though funding remained largely concentrated in applied use cases such as financial services, logistics, and health tech rather than deep research and development.

In 2025, 63 acquisitions were announced, though only five disclosed transaction values. Notably, half of those involved startups acquiring other startups, pointing to early signs of consolidation within the ecosystem.

The report added that equity financing remained dominant, but debt funding surpassed $1 billion for the first time in a decade, signaling growing confidence in structured finance across African markets. It also noted a rise in capital from non-Western sources, particularly Japan and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, as traditional Western investors scaled back.

Despite increased funding activity, Briter pointed out that the gender gap remains stark as less than 10 per cent of total funding went to companies with at least one female founder, highlighting ongoing challenges in inclusive capital access across Africa.

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