Economy
Naira May Remain Under Pressure in 2026—Yemi Kale
By Adedapo Adesanya
Top economist, Mr Yemi Kale, has projected that the Naira will remain under pressure against the United States Dollar in 2026, due to some external pressures.
Mr Kale, who is currently the Senior Economist at Africa Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) and formerly the Statistician-General of Nigeria, made the disclosure while delivering his keynote speech at the FirstBank Nigeria Economic Outlook 2026.
He outlines three scenario-based forecasts for the Dollar/Naira exchange rate, reflecting varying assumptions around oil prices, foreign-exchange (FX) inflows, inflation trends, and policy consistency.
Under the baseline scenario, the Naira is projected to trade around N1,350/$1–N1,450/$1 by the end of 2026.
According to the outlook, key assumptions include moderate improvement in Nigeria’s FX reserves and oil export revenues, relative stability in FX policy by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), gradual decline in inflation, and the absence of major external shocks, such as a sharp oil price collapse or a global Dollar surge.
It is projected that by June 2026, Naira will trade at approximately N1,313 to the Dollar, and around N1,340/$1 by December 2026.
The outlook notes that currency risks remain elevated, justifying a cautious baseline forecast rather than expectations of strong appreciation.
It noted that the Naira would remain under pressure but avoid a sharp collapse, pointing to moderate depreciation or a mild recovery from weaker levels.
In a more positive outlook, the Naira could strengthen to between N1,200 and N1,300 per Dollar by the end of 2026.
Key assumptions include strong oil price recovery or successful export diversification, effective FX reforms by the CBN, improved liquidity, and narrower gaps between official and parallel markets, and significant decline in inflation, restoring investor confidence.
He noted that this could be buoyed by increased FX inflows from oil, gas, remittances, and non-oil exports
A weaker global US Dollar, which would support emerging-market currencies.
According to the outlook, even at N1,200, the Naira would remain significantly weaker than historical benchmarks, underscoring persistent structural challenges.
In the worst-case scenario projects the Naira could weaken to N1,550–N1,650 or beyond by the end of 2026.
Key assumptions are weak oil prices or production disruptions reducing FX inflows, deepening FX liquidity crisis and forced currency devaluation, and rising inflation, widening fiscal deficits, and erosion of investor confidence
While extreme, the scenario remains plausible given Nigeria’s structural vulnerabilities, including import dependence, FX mismatches, and inflationary pressures.
The outlook projects a gradual rebuild of Nigeria’s external reserves toward $45 billion by 2027, driven by higher remittance inflows, improved oil receipts, and portfolio investment re-entries.
He noted that policy consistency, particularly transparent FX management and fiscal discipline, is critical to sustaining investor confidence and strengthening Nigeria’s balance-of-payments position.
He added that local refining capacity could also help reduce reliance on petroleum imports, save billions of Dollars in FX annually, while export growth in agriculture, manufacturing, and services under the AfCFTA is expanding Nigeria’s non-oil FX base.
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has accused an investment online platform, Investment Management (VIM), of operating illegally in the Nigerian capital market.
In a notice obtained from the website of capital market regulator by Business Post, Voya Investment was accused of deceiving unsuspecting members of the public with fake certificate of identity verification, purportedly issued by SEC.
The agency emphasised that Voya Investment is not authorised to operate in the nation’s capital market because it is not registered to do so.
“The operators of this platform claim to offer investment services in Nigerian stocks and other financial instruments purportedly under the supervision of the Commission. Voya Investment Management is also parading a certificate of identity verification purportedly issued by the commission.
“The commission hereby informs the public that Voya Investment Management (VIM) is NOT REGISTERED or licensed by the commission to carry out any activity in the Nigerian capital market,” parts of the statement stressed.
The organisation further declared that, “The certificate being paraded by Voya Investment Management was neither issued nor endorsed by SEC Nigeria as the commission does not issue certificates of identity verification.
“Furthermore, claims by VIM that it is supervised, licensed, or approved by the commission to undertake operations in the capital market are false, misleading and fraudulent.”
It added that, “Complaints received by the commission regarding the fraudulent activities of VIM and the misleading information by the company to the investing public that it is licensed by the commission, bear clear characteristics of illegal investment schemes designed to defraud unsuspecting members of the public.”
“Accordingly, the public is advised to refrain from dealing with Voya Investment Management (VIM) , as any person who engages with the entity or its representatives does so at his/her own risk.
“The commission hereby reiterates that transacting in the Nigerian capital market with unregistered entities exposes investors to financial risks including fraud and potential loss of investments.
“The investing public is therefore reminded to VERIFY the status of companies and entities purporting to offer investment opportunities in the capital market on the commission’s dedicated portal – www.sec.gov.ng/cmos, prior to transacting with such companies and entities.”
By Adedapo Adesanya
PwC Nigeria has projected that Nigeria’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) would grow at about 4.3 per cent this year, supported by higher crude oil production and stronger performance in dominant sectors.
The consultancy firm gave this projection in its Economic Outlook 2026 released on Wednesday.
It also said the Naira is expected to remain broadly stable through 2026, underpinned by ongoing reforms by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and improved portfolio inflows.
Headline inflation is also projected to moderately ease, supported by the CBN’s tight monetary policy stance, rebasing effects, and improved stability in the foreign exchange market.
With regards to interest rate, the PwC report said with inflation trending down, the apex bank may cautiously ease its monetary policy stance this year.
The report, however, said fiscal sustainability risks are expected to persist, driven by low revenue to GDP, fiscal leakages, higher spending and elevated debt service obligations.
PwC Nigeria said with fiscal constraints persisting, they reinforce the importance of capital efficiency and balance-sheet discipline.
Against this backdrop, PwC Nigeria highlights practical imperatives for business leaders in 2026: making selective investment bets in attractive sectors and regions, and scenario-planning for macroeconomic and geopolitical shocks.
Other imperatives for business leaders include adapting business models and cost structures for resilience, accelerating digital transformation and responsible AI adoption, and strengthening regulatory and tax compliance as reforms move from design to execution.
The firm noted that Nigeria recorded improvements in macroeconomic stability in 2025 following key monetary and foreign-exchange reforms, with inflation easing, exchange-rate conditions stabilising, and external reserves strengthening.
Speaking on this, the Country Senior Partner, PwC Nigeria, Mr Sam Abu, said: “PwC Nigeria’s Economic Outlook 2026 provides forward-looking analysis of key macroeconomic indicators and what they signal for the economy and for business leaders.
“Nigeria has achieved improved macroeconomic stability over the past year. The focus now is how that stability is translated into sustainable economic growth, and how businesses position for 2026. For companies, this stability provides a more predictable operating environment for planning, investment, and growth decisions.”
On his part, the Partner and Chief Economist, PwC Nigeria, Mr Olusegun Zaccheaus, said, “Globally, growth is projected at around 3.1 per cent, while merchandise trade growth slows to about 0.5 per cent, keeping oil prices, capital flows, and access to foreign inflows as key channels influencing Nigeria’s growth and FX liquidity.
“Domestically, improved monetary effectiveness has reduced volatility and clarified pricing, cost, and funding signals, even as fiscal pressures, security challenges, and weak household purchasing power continue to shape sector outcomes.”
According to Mr Zaccheaus, “growth is more likely to remain concentrated in services and selected capital-intensive sectors, placing a premium on disciplined capital allocation and sector selection.”
By Adedapo Adesanya
The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange further appreciated by 1.08 per cent on Wednesday, January 7, pushing the market capitalisation higher by N23.38 billion to N2.185 trillion from the preceding session’s closing value of N2.162 trillion.
Also during the trading session, NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) further went up by 39.08 points to close at 3,653.04 points compared with the 3,613.96 points recorded on Tuesday.
The midweek session witnessed a rise in the share prices of three securities on the unlisted securities market, with Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc adding N3.40 to close at N42.14 per share versus the preceding day’s N38.74 per share.
Further, FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc expanded by N3.05 to finish at N59.92 per unit compared with the N56.87 per unit it ended a day earlier, and Geo-Fluids Plc jumped by 10 Kobo to end at N6.88 per share versus N6.78 per share.
Yesterday, the volume of securities rose by 39.0 per cent to 1.9 million units from the previous day’s 1.4 million units, the value of securities surged by 29.5 per cent to N36.3 million from N28.0 million, while the number of deals slid by 19.6 per cent to 45 deals from 56 deals.
The most active stock by value on a year-to-date basis was CSCS Plc with 1.1 million units exchanged for N41.6 million, followed by Geo-Fluids Plc with 2.9 million units valued at N19.4 million, and Okitipupa Plc with 49,424 units worth N11.0 million.
In terms of volume, Industrial and General Insurance (IGI) Plc led with 2.9 million units traded for N1.9 million, trailed by Geo-Fluids Plc with 2.9 million units sold for N2.9 million, and CSCS Plc with 1.1 million units traded for N41.6 million.
-
Feature/OPED6 years agoDavos was Different this year
-
Travel/Tourism9 years ago
Lagos Seals Western Lodge Hotel In Ikorodu
-
Showbiz3 years agoEstranged Lover Releases Videos of Empress Njamah Bathing
-
Banking8 years agoSort Codes of GTBank Branches in Nigeria
-
Economy3 years agoSubsidy Removal: CNG at N130 Per Litre Cheaper Than Petrol—IPMAN
-
Banking3 years agoFirst Bank Announces Planned Downtime
-
Banking3 years agoSort Codes of UBA Branches in Nigeria
-
Sports3 years agoHighest Paid Nigerian Footballer – How Much Do Nigerian Footballers Earn