Economy
Nigeria to Make $3.98b from Business Deals in 2018—Report
By Dipo Olowookere
A new report released by Baker McKenzie, a multinational law firm, has predicted an increase in global deal activity next year.
The report, titled Global Transactions Forecast, which is in its third edition, attributed this rise to the easing of key economic and political risks as well as the emergence of positive macroeconomic deal drivers.
It specifically noted that deal making in Nigeria looks set to increase in 2018 and 2019 after a period of policy uncertainty which saw M&A transactions decrease.
Conditions in South Africa are also predicted to improve, but this will depend on political and economic conditions in the country in the next two years, the report added.
According to Baker McKenzie, globally, 2017 has been a period of apprehension for dealmakers and while economic growth has certainly slowed, the cliff-edge some were predicting has failed to materialise.
Following on the momentum created in the second half of 2017, The Global Transactions Forecast, developed in association with Oxford Economics, predicts a cyclical peak in 2018 for several macroeconomic and financial deal drivers, with 2018 marking the high point of the deal cycle for the world’s largest transaction centres.
Head of Africa at Baker McKenzie in Johannesburg, Mr Wildu du Plessis, noted that in Nigeria, policy and economic uncertainties had contributed to stalled dealmaking in the country. Uncertainties included a lack of access to foreign exchange, blockages to the government budget process, and low oil production that had constrained GDP growth.
“As these conditions ease in the final months of 2017 and into 2018, a rebound in M&A to around US$4 billion in both 2018 and 2019 is forecasted,” Mr du Plessis was quoted as saying in the statement made available to Business Post by Baker McKenzie on Tuesday.
In Nigeria, M&A transactions were valued at $1.2 billion in 2016, this is predicted to drop to $716.4 million in 2017.
In 2018, this is predicted to rise to $3.98 billion and to $3.94 billion in 2019.
There were 28 M&A transactions in 2016 and 28 are predicted again in 2017, 35 deals are expected in 2018, rising to 40 in 2019.
In South Africa, the forecast is similar. Growing political risk and a sluggish economy contributed to a halving in total M&A in 2017 versus 2016.
However, the forecast predicts that economy should improve in 2018 thanks to the impact of monetary policy easing and stronger commodity prices. But at around $9 billion in 2019, the forecast for the peak in M&A activity in this region will be less than a third of the level seen in 2015.
Mr Du Plessis noted, however, “For South Africa, there is no guarantee that the predicted upswing will come to pass. There is just too much political uncertainty. If the ANC National Conference in December does not deliver the solution that markets are hoping for, then deal flow and IPO activity will be affected and depressed. If on the other hand there is some hope of a change to the political situation, things may well indeed change for the better.”
Morne van der Merwe, Managing Partner of Baker McKenzie in Johannesburg said, “Current conditions in South Africa have slowed M&A growth in that international investors are reluctant to invest in South Africa due to the political and economic uncertainty. This uncertainty has caused a reduction in Foreign Direct Investment, which, in turn, hindered deal-making. Due to the downgrades and potential for further downgrades, the cost of raising capital for acquisitions has also become more expensive.”
In South Africa, M&A transactions were valued at $10.7 billion in 2016, this is predicted to drop to $4.5 billion in 2017.
In 2018, this is predicted to rise to $8.5 billion and to $9.2 billion in 2019.
In terms of deal volume, there were 115 M&A transactions in South Africa in 2016, this is predicted to rise to 172 transactions in 2017, 273 deals are expected in 2018, rising again to 295 in 2019.
Globally, “After a few soft patches in 2017 we have a more optimistic outlook for the global economy and dealmaking in 2018, as long as the brakes are not put any further on global free trade. We see an uplift in both M&A and IPO activity as dealmakers and investors gain greater confidence in the business prospects of acquisition targets and newly-listed businesses,” added Paul Rawlinson, Baker McKenzie’s global chair. “However, it’s not a done deal, with the threat of a Hard Brexit and a NAFTA collapse both still very real. Business will need to continue to make the case for liberal trade and investment frameworks.”
By Dipo Olowookere
The local stock market firmed up by 1.13 per cent on Friday as appetite for Nigerian stocks remained strong.
Investors reacted well to the 2026 budget presentation of President Bola Tinubu to the National Assembly yesterday, especially because of the more realistic crude oil benchmark of $64 per barrel compared with the ambitious $75 per barrel for 2025. This year, prices have been between $60 and $65 per barrel.
Business Post observed profit-taking in the commodity and energy sectors as they respectively shed 0.14 per cent and 0.03 per cent.
But, bargain-hunting in the others sustained the positive run, with the consumer goods index up by 3.82 per cent.
Further, the industrial goods space appreciated by 1.46 per cent, the banking counter improved by 0.08 per cent, and the insurance industry gained 0.04 per cent.
As a result, the All-Share Index (ASI) increased by 1,694.33 points to 152,057.38 points from 150,363.05 points and the market capitalisation chalked up N1.080 trillion to finish at N96.937 trillion compared with Thursday’s closing value of N95.857 trillion.
A total of 34 shares ended on the advancers’ chart, while 24 were on the laggards’ log, representing a positive market breadth index and bullish investor sentiment.
Austin Laz gained 10.00 per cent to close at N2.42, Union Dicon also jumped 10.00 per cent to N6.60, Tantalizers increased by 9.80 per cent to N2.69, Aluminium Extrusion improved by 9.78 per cent to N12.35, and Champion Breweries grew by 9.71 per cent to N16.95.
Conversely, Sovereign Trust Insurance dipped by 7.42 per cent to N3.87, Royal Exchange lost 6.84 per cent to trade at N1.77, Omatek slipped by 6.84 per cent to N1.09, Eunisell depreciated by 5.88 per cent to N80.00, and Eterna dropped 5.63 per cent to close at N28.50.
Yesterday, traders transacted 1.5 billion units worth N21.8 billion in 25,667 deals compared with the 839.8 million units sold for N32.8 billion in 23,211 deals in the preceding session, showing a surge in the trading volume by 76.61 per cent, an uptick in the number of deals by 10.58 per cent, and a shrink in the trading value by 33.54 per cent.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Three stocks stretched the bearish run of the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange by 1.21 per cent on Friday, December 19, with the market capitalisation giving up N26.01 billion to close at N2.121 billion compared with the N2.147 trillion it ended a day earlier, and the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) dropping 43.47 points to 3,546.41 points from 3,589.88 points.
The trio of FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc, Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc, and NASD Plc overpowered the gains printed by four other securities.
FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc lost N6.00 to sell at N54.00 per unit versus N60.00 per unit, NASD Plc shrank by N3.50 to N58.50 per share from N55.00 per share, and CSCS Plc depleted by N2.91 to N33.87 per unit from N36.78 per unit.
On the flip side, Air Liquide Plc gained N1.01 to close at N13.00 per share versus N11.99 per share, Golden Capital Plc appreciated by 70 Kobo to N7.68 per unit from N6.98 per unit, Geo-Fluids Plc added 39 Kobo to sell at N5.50 per share versus N5.11 per share, and IPWA Plc rose by 8 Kobo to 85 Kobo per unit from 77 Kobo per unit.
During the trading day, market participants traded 1.9 million securities versus the previous day’s 30.5 million securities showing a decline of 49.3 per cent. The value of trades went down by 64.3 per cent to N80.3 million from N225.1 million, but the number of deals jumped by 32.1 per cent to 37 deals from 28 deals.
Infrastructure Credit Guarantee Company (InfraCredit) Plc finished the session as the most active stock by value on a year-to-date basis with 5.8 billion units valued at N16.4 billion, followed by Okitipupa Plc with 178.9 million units transacted for N9.5 billion, and MRS Oil Plc with 36.1 million units traded for N4.9 billion.
The most active stock by volume on a year-to-date basis was still InfraCredit Plc with 5.8 billion units worth N16.4 billion, trailed by Industrial and General Insurance (IGI) Plc with 1.2 billion units sold for N420.7 million, and Impresit Bakolori Plc with 536.9 million units traded for N524.9 million.
By Adedapo Adesanya
It was not a good day for the Nigerian Naira at the two major foreign exchange (FX) market on Friday as it suffered a heavy loss against the United States Dollar at the close of transactions.
In the black market segment, the Naira weakened against its American counterpart yesterday by N10 to quote at N1,485/$1, in contrast to the N1,475/$1 it was traded a day earlier, and at the GTBank forex counter, it depreciated by N2 to settle at N1,467/$1 versus Thursday’s closing price of N1,465/$1.
In the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) window, which is also the official market, the nation’s legal tender crashed against the greenback by N6.65 or 0.46 per cent to close at N1,464.49/$1 compared with the preceding session’s rate of N1,457.84/$1.
In the same vein, the local currency tumbled against the Euro in the spot market by N2.25 to sell for N1,714.63/€1 compared with the previous day’s N1,712.38/€1, but appreciated against the Pound Sterling by 73 Kobo to finish at N1,957.30/£1 compared with the N1,958.03/£1 it was traded in the preceding session.
The market continues to face seasonal pressure even as the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is still conducting FX intervention sales, which have significantly reduced but not remove pressure from the Naira. Also, there seems to be reduced supply from exporters, foreign portfolio investors and non-bank corporate inflows.
President Bola Tinubu on Friday presented the government’s N58.47 trillion budget plan aimed at consolidating economic reforms and boosting growth.
The budget is based on a projected crude oil price of $64.85 a barrel and includes a target oil output of 1.84 million barrels a day. It also projects an exchange rate of N1,400 to the Dollar.
President Tinubu said inflation had plunged to an annual rate of 14.45 per cent in November from 24.23 per cent in March, while foreign reserves had surged to a seven-year high of $47 billion.
Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market was dominated by the bulls but it continues to face increased pressure after million in liquidations in previous session over accelerating declines, with Dogecoin (DOGE) recovering 4.2 per cent to trade at $0.1309.
Further, Ripple (XRP) appreciated by 3.9 per cent to $1.90, Cardano (ADA) rose by 3.5 per cent to $0.3728, Solana (SOL) jumped by 3.4 per cent to $126.23, Ethereum (ETH) climbed by 2.9 per cent to $2,982.42, Binance Coin (BNB) gained 2.0 per cent to sell for $853.06, Bitcoin (BTC) improved by 1.7 per cent to $88,281.21, and Litecoin (LTC) soared by 1.2 per cent to $76.50, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) traded flat at $1.00 each.
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