Connect with us

Economy

Nigeria: Moody’s Predicts 2.5% GDP Growth in 2017, 4% in 2018

Published

on

**Affirms Country’s B1 Rating With Stable Outlook

By Modupe Gbadeyanka

Moody’s Investors Service on Friday affirmed the B1 long-term issuer rating of the government of Nigeria with a stable outlook just as it forecasts that real GDP growth will rise to 2.5 percent in 2017 and accelerate further in 2018 to 4 percent.

The global rating firm disclosed that the key drivers for these were the medium term growth prospects remain robust despite the current challenging environment, with the rebound in oil production helping to rebalance the economy over the next two years; and the government’s balance sheet, which it said remains strong relative to its peers, resilient to the contractionary environment and temporarily elevated interest payments while the authorities pursue their efforts to grow non-oil taxes.

The long-term local-currency bond and deposit ceilings remain unchanged at Ba1. The long-term foreign-currency bond and deposit ceilings remain unchanged at Ba3 and B2, respectively.

Moody’s said it expects Nigeria’s medium term growth to remain robust, driven by the recovery in oil output and also over the near term, it expects Nigeria’s economic growth and US dollar earnings to improve in 2017, supported by a recovery in oil production.

According to Moody’s, after an estimated -1.5 percent real GDP growth in 2016, it forecasts real GDP growth to rise to 2.5% in 2017 and accelerate further in 2018 to 4%. A rebound in oil production to two million barrels per day (mbpd) will, if sustained, enhance economic growth and support the US dollar supply in the economy.

It noted that Nigeria has made significant gains in terms of governance and transparency in the oil sector. Improved availability of data, progress in restructuring the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC), rising effectiveness of operations at the refineries and a readiness to tackle difficult issues with partners (such as funding issues at the Joint Ventures) speak to a material improvement in the operating environment. The Petroleum Investment Bill (PIB bill), which had been blocked for 8 years in parliament, has been reactivated with a portion of the law drafted and passed by the Senate. Moreover, militant activity in the Niger Delta is set to wane following the resumption of payments from the government, though it will remain a threat to the recovery of the economy.

Moody’s further said the economy is also likely to benefit from the more timely implementation of the 2017 budget than its predecessor and in particular from the increase in capital spending on infrastructure which that will allow.

It also said the scarcity of Dollars, worsened by the soft capital controls imposed by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), is likely to continue to negatively affect important sectors of the economy especially in services and manufacturing sectors.

“We do not expect the current policy mix to significantly change over the short term but a gradual easing of restrictions is possible as foreign currency receipts improve with rising oil production,” the firm said on Friday in a statement obtained by Business Post.

In 2017 and 2018, we expect Nigeria’s balance of payments to move back into surplus, supported by government external borrowings and a falling current account deficit. The latter is quickly reducing, supported by falling imports and increased oil production.

Depreciation of the naira, soft capital controls and current dollar scarcity have been relatively effective at constraining imports. We expect foreign exchange reserves to grow modestly in 2017. While improved foreign investor sentiment should support the rebalancing of the economy over the medium term, with the return of portfolio investors improving dollar liquidity in the country, the continued existence of a parallel, unofficial foreign exchange market is likely to act as a strong deterrent over the near term.

RESILIENT GOVERNMENT BALANCE SHEET STRONGER THAN PEERS’ DESPITE TURBULENCE

Moody’s says it expects the medium-term impact of the oil price shock on Nigeria’s government balance sheet to be contained, and recent erosion of debt affordability to be reversed.

The effect of the recent downturn on the government’s budget sheet has been contained as the authorities have been able to offset the shortfall in revenue with large cuts in capital expenditure. As a result, Moody’s forecasts a budget deficit of 3 percent of GDP in 2016, comprised of a 2 percent of GDP federal government budget deficit and around 1% of arrears split between federal, state and municipality levels of government, it explained.

Moody’s forecasts the federal government deficit to remain around 2% of GDP in 2017 and 2018, with large capital expenditure outlays resuming as the government’s cash flow situation improves. Based on these underlying projections, Nigeria’s balance sheet will continue to compare favourably with peers’, with government debt remaining well below 20% of GDP over the coming years against 55% median for B1-rated peers.

By end-2016, Moody’s estimates the government debt stock will be comprised of 85% domestic borrowing and 15% external debt, resulting in a manageable external debt profile. Government external debt amounts to just 2.9% of GDP, with interest payments set to remain low, at around $330 million dollars per annum. Domestic debt has increased significantly in recent years, reaching its current level of NGN10 trillion. Around 30% of this debt is comprised of costly T-bills, which have increased refinancing risk and interest rate exposure. However, Moody’s expects the ratio of interest payments to government revenues to peak at 20% for general government, and close to 40% of revenues for federal government in 2017.

Although debt service costs are high, Nigeria’s domestic capital market is sufficiently developed to accommodate the yearly public sector borrowing requirements of around NGN5.5 trillion. This is another positive credit feature that distinguishes Nigeria from many similarly rated peers. The country’s banking sector is well-capitalised and liquid and the national pension fund still has additional capacity. Should banking sector liquidity decline, the Central Bank of Nigeria has tools at its disposal to support appetite for government securities, including lowering the cash reserve requirement ratio from its presently high level of 22.5%. However, appetite for government securities remains strong, with all instruments remain oversubscribed.

Moody’s expects the recent increase in debt service costs to prove temporary, as a result of i) the government’ initiatives to expand the non-oil revenue base, and ii) efforts to improve the structure of government debt.

Measures by the Federal Revenue Inland Service are expected to increase non-oil revenue to around NGN4 trillion in 2016 from NGN2.5 trillion in 2015. These include a tax amnesty on penalties and interest on tax liabilities due in 2013, 2014 and 2015. However, not all the initiatives have proven successful: the independent re-appropriation of revenues from the ministries departments and agencies (MDAs) has yielded disappointing results so far. Such outcomes highlight the considerable execution risks inherent in the transition to a less oil-dependent federal budget, and the implications for the government balance sheet should it not meet its objectives.

The government’s medium-term debt strategy should also help to lower the interest burden. The debt strategy is geared towards exchanging costly short-term debt with long-term concessional borrowing. Although a portion of future external borrowings are expected to be raised through the Eurobond markets, this is likely to be complemented with ongoing support from other multilateral institutions including the African Development Bank and the World Bank. The combined effect of these measures should help to bring interest payments/general government revenues down to 16.8% by 2018, from an estimated 19.8% in 2016.

RATIONALE FOR THE OUTLOOK AT STABLE

The stable outlook is driven by Moody’s view that the downside risks posed by the weakening of the country’s fiscal strength, and the external and economic pressures anticipated this year and next, are balanced by Nigeria’s strengths, which exceed those of sovereigns rated below B1. In 2016, Nigeria’s external vulnerability indicator of 31% will remain far below the expected B1 median of 51%, while its debt-to-GDP of 16.6% will remain far below the expected B1 median of 55%. Set against that, its expected debt servicing burden in terms of interest payments to revenue of 19% is more than double the B1 median of 9%. To a large extent, Moody’s believes that this reflects Nigeria’s underdeveloped public sector revenue base, a credit weakness that the administration is attempting to address.

WHAT COULD CHANGE THE RATING UP

Positive pressure on Nigeria’s issuer rating will be exerted upon: 1) successful implementation of structural reforms by the Buhari administration, in particular with respect to public resource management and the broadening of the revenue base; 2) strong improvement in institutional strength with respect to corruption, government effectiveness, and the rule of law; 3) the rebuilding of large financial buffers sufficient to shelter the economy against a prolonged period of oil price and production volatility.

WHAT COULD CHANGE THE RATING DOWN

Nigeria’s B1 issuer rating could be downgraded in the event of 1) a greater-than-anticipated deterioration in the government’s balance sheet or continued erosion of debt affordability, for example resulting from the failure to implement revenue reform; and 2) lower than expected medium term growth, for example as a result of delays in implementing key structural reforms, especially in the oil sector, or continued militancy in the Niger Delta, which undermine the level of oil production over the medium-term.

GDP per capita (PPP basis, US$): 6,184 (2015 Actual) (also known as Per Capita Income)

Real GDP growth (% change): -1.5% (2016 Estimate) (also known as GDP Growth)

Inflation Rate (CPI, % change Dec/Dec): 19% (2016 Estimate)

Gen. Gov. Financial Balance/GDP: -2.9% (2016 Estimate) (also known as Fiscal Balance)

Current Account Balance/GDP: -0.6% (2016 Estimate) (also known as External Balance)

External debt/GDP: 4.2% (2016 Estimate)

Level of economic development: Low level of economic resilience

Default history: No default events (on bonds or loans) have been recorded since 1983.

On 7 December 2016, a rating committee was called to discuss the ratings of the Government of Nigeria. The main points raised during the discussion were: The issuer’s economic fundamentals, including its economic strength, have not materially changed. The issuer’s fiscal or financial strength, including its debt profile, has not materially changed. The issuer’s susceptibility to event risks has not materially changed. Other views raised included: the issuer’s institutional strength/framework, have not materially changed. The issuer’s governance and/or management, have not materially changed.

The principal methodology used in these ratings was Sovereign Bond Ratings published in December 2015. Please see the Rating Methodologies page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.

The weighting of all rating factors is described in the methodology used in this credit rating action, if applicable.

Modupe Gbadeyanka is a fast-rising journalist with Business Post Nigeria. Her passion for journalism is amazing. She is willing to learn more with a view to becoming one of the best pen-pushers in Nigeria. Her role models are the duo of CNN's Richard Quest and Christiane Amanpour.

Economy

FG Insists on January 2026 Implementation of Tax Laws

Published

on

taiwo oyedele tax implementation

By Modupe Gbadeyanka

The planned implementation of the new tax laws from Thursday, January 1, 2026, will not be reversed, the federal government has emphasised.

This emphasis was made amid controversies over discrepancies in the harmonised and gazetted copies of the laws.

A lawmaker in the House of Representatives, Mr Abdussamad Dasuki, raised this alarm last week during plenary.

He said parts of the laws passed by the National Assembly were different from the gazetted, calling on the leadership to look into this.

In June 2025, President Bola Tinubu signed the four tax-related bills in law as part of his government’s reform programme

The new tax laws are the Nigeria Revenue Service (Establishment) Act, the Joint Revenue Board of Nigeria (Establishment) Act, the Nigeria Tax Act, and the Nigeria Tax Administration Act.

Addressing newsmen after a meeting with Mr Tinubu in Lagos on Friday, the Chairman of the Presidential Committee on Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms, Mr Taiwo Oyedele, stressed there were no plans to suspend the implementation of the laws from next Thursday, despite calls for this.

However, he welcomed the decision of the House of Representatives to investigate the matter, stressing that the federal government is ready to work with the National Assembly if any action becomes necessary, but maintained that the reform timeline remains unchanged.

Mr Oyedele explained that the reforms are aimed at providing relief to Nigerians and stimulating economic growth rather than generating immediate revenue, noting about 98 per cent of workers would either pay no personal income tax or pay less, while 97 per cent of small businesses would be exempted from corporate income tax and VAT withholding tax.

He added that large businesses would also benefit from lower effective tax rates, noting that the reforms are designed to promote inclusivity, shared prosperity and improved tax compliance.

The tax expert said preparations for the reforms began in October 2024 when the bills were first submitted to the National Assembly and have continued through capacity building, system upgrades and stakeholder sensitisation since the laws were signed in June 2025.

Continue Reading

Economy

Looming Supply Glut, Ukraine Peace Deal Hope Weaken Oil Market

Published

on

three oil marketers

By Adedapo Adesanya

The oil market depreciated by more than 2 per cent on Friday as investors weighed a looming global supply glut, while also keeping an eye on a potential Ukraine peace deal.

Brent crude futures lost $1.60 or 2.57 per cent to trade at $60.64 per barrel and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures crumbled by $1.61 or 2.76 per cent to $56.74 a barrel.

The global oil supply next year will exceed demand by 3.84 million barrels per day, according to figures from the International Energy Administration (IEA) in its December oil market report.

Supply rose sharply this year boosted by output hikes from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) as well as growth in the United States and other producers. The group also paused output increases for the first quarter of 2026.

Meanwhile, OPEC kept its global demand growth forecast for year next unchanged in its monthly report, with its data indicating that world oil supply will match demand closely in 2026, in contrast to the IEA’s view.

While supply disruptions have helped oil prices rebound in recent sessions from their near five-year low, they are on track for their steepest annual decline since 2020. Brent and WTI are down 19 per cent and 21 per cent respectively on the year, as rising crude output caused concerns of an oil glut heading into next year.

Investors are watching for developments in the Russia-Ukraine peace process ahead of talks this weekend between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and US President Donald Trump.

They will be focusing on the possible impact on future oil prices as a peace agreement could lead to the removal of international sanctions against Russia’s oil sector.

The Ukrainian president has said he would be willing to call a referendum on an agreed peace framework if Russia agrees to a ceasefire.

In Venezuela, the White House ordered the US military forces to focus on a “quarantine” of Venezuelan oil for at least the next two months, indicating the Trump administration is currently more interested in using economic rather than military means to pressure the South American OPEC member.

During the week, the American Petroleum Institute (API) estimated that crude oil inventories in the United States saw a build of 2.4 million barrels in the week ending December 19. Crude oil inventories data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) will be released next week due to the Christmas holidays.

Continue Reading

Economy

Sources of Business Finance in Nigeria: Types and Options

Published

on

sources of business finance

Finance may be the single most essential element when it comes to the progress and sustainability of businesses in Nigeria. The level of funding available to businesses, small and big, determines their ability to function, grow, and compete. The Nigerian business environment, due to the interplay between the local economy, financial institutions, government, and private investors, offers multiple financing opportunities. The dynamics of these financing opportunities helps business owners and managers make the right decisions that best respond to their objectives and the level of risk they are willing to take.

Start your Livescorebet registration and discover more as this article analyzes the different sources of business finance in Nigeria in a systematic and detailed manner. It defines and explains internal and external financing options and the criteria relevant businesses may use in their search for the best financing instrument.

Understanding Sources of Business Finance

Before one can delve into the different options of business financing available, it is important to define business finances and categorize it. The objective of this is to establish a foundation for understanding the extent to which some options may be more appropriate for different businesses than others.

What Are Sources of Finance?

Sources of finance are how a business acquires funds to begin activities, settle daily operations, or pay for additional business activities like acquisitions, expansions, and long-term projects. Businesses may need to finance the purchase of new equipment, hire and pay additional staff, manage business cash flow, develop new products, or finance the expenses required to enter or compete in new markets.

In Nigeria, the Sources of finance are determined by interest rates, availability of bank services, regulations, and the growth stage of capital markets, among other things. A business may use its own cash resources, borrow from a financial institution, receive funds from an investor, or receive a government grant or other government-funded assistance program. Each of these also offers different-related costs, obligations, and levels of control.

Types of Finance: Major Categories

Business finance is typically subdivided into two larger subsets: internal finance, and external finance. Internal finance is from the business and its resources; external finance is from third parties.

The classification of finance by time is also an option. Short-term finance is used for the working capital needs like inventory and operational expenses. Medium-term finance is used for the purchase of an asset like a machine. Long-term finance is used for significant investments like expansion or infrastructure. These classifications often overlap with internal and external sources and help a business structure their financing efficiently.

Key Principles and Examples

Cost is the most influential principle when it comes to the choice and method of utilizing finance. Aspects like interest and dividends affect profitability. Additionally, other opportunity costs must also be focused on. Another principle is risk. Increased borrowing equates to an increase in financial obligations. Control and flexibility are also essential, especially in terms of the original decision makers.

For instance, a small retail shop could potentially rely on the profits previously obtained to purchase stock and restock their shelf. On the other hand, a manufacturing business may need to obtain a bank loan in addition to leasing an arrangement in order to get the needed equipment. These principles must be understood so that finance can be used to support the objectives of the company.

Internal Sources of Business Finance

Internal sources of finance are the finance obtained within a business without the need of external lenders or investors. These sources are often preferred as with them, the business relies a minimal amount on external parties to minimize financial risk.

retained earnings

Retained Earnings

Profits that a company reinvests rather than giving out to owners or stockholders is called retained earnings. Within Nigeria, retained earnings is a common type of financing for SMEs that do not have access to external funding.

This type of financing is cost effective as it does not incur interest or have repayment schedules. Retained earnings financing ensures owners have complete operational control. However, retained earnings depend on profitability, meaning they can be limited or unavailable for new businesses or those that are struggling. Overreliance on retained earnings can also slow expansion if significant capital is needed for growth.

Ordinary (Equity) Shares

For incorporated businesses, it is understood that issuing ordinary shares is considered an internal source if funding is collected from existing owners/shareholders. When an owner nets additional funding, they are strengthening the business’ finances without taking on additional debt.

Equity shares do not have to be paid back, relieving some pressure from cash outflows. This does mean that ownership and profit rights, in the form of dividends, will be repealed. Equity financing in Nigeria is more prevalent in larger businesses and startups with growth potential, especially those that are preparing for future investment rounds or new public listings.

Other Internal Sources

The other internal sources include the streamlining of cash flows, the sale of unused assets, and the reduction of working capital. For instance, a business might dispose of old vehicles or equipment to obtain cash for more productive investments. Likewise, enhanced control of inventories and the speedy collection of receivables can liberate cash for other operational uses.

The techniques described here are often undervalued, especially since they provide short-term relief without incurring external liabilities. Nevertheless, the main limitation of these techniques is scale. They are unlikely to provide the necessary funds to sustain larger projects.

External Sources of Business Finance

External sources imply sourcing funds from outside the business. These sources are particularly necessary for new ventures and rapidly expanding businesses as well as for capital intensive industries.

Bank Lending

Bank lending is, and continues to be, a major source of business finance in Nigeria. Commercial banks, microfinance banks, and development finance institutions all grant businesses loans, overdrafts, and other credit facilities.

Bank loans are easier to obtain and can provide in a short time big amounts of money, making them more attractive for funding major business expansions and for acquisition of new assets. However, such loans are usually associated with a range of challenges such as high-interest rates and demands for strict repayment periods and collateral. Many Nigerian SMEs do not easily gain access to such bank credit due to their limited credit history and insufficient collateral.

loan stock

Loan Stock

Loan stock is a long-term debt financial instrument provided by companies to obtain funding from customers and pays a fixed interest and is repaid after a determined time. In Nigeria debt stock is more prevalent with large established companies.

A loan stock has the benefit of providing long-term financing without losing partial company control. But the financial risk of the company rising during poor economic times increases, as loan interest rates must always be paid.

Venture Capital

Venture capital, funds provided by the investors of a business with the potential of high growth, is in exchange for equity. Venture capital in Nigeria is more common in technology, fintech, and agri-business.

Venture capitalists do not just provide funding; they also provide their experience in the field, their connections, as well as their planning and do-adding-knowledge, making it highly beneficial for new companies. However, these investors more often than not expect the high amounts of profit; therefore, a greater stake of their ownership of the valuable business is lost.

Leasing and Hire Purchase

Hire purchase and leasing, in asset financing, provide the means for firms to use equipment without the need to make the full payment for the equipment up front. Leasing allows the renting of a fixed-term asset, while hire purchase enables the attainment of the full ownership of the asset after making a series of payment installments.

These techniques are common in Nigeria for acquiring college textbooks, vehicles, office technology, etc. These techniques allow one to maintain positive cash flow, while avoiding large capital expenses. The main disadvantage is the total expenditure is higher than buying the item outright.

Government Assistance and Grants

The government of Nigeria, through its various agencies, has a wide range of funding programs aimed at supporting businesses, particularly for Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) and start-ups, which come in the form of grants, subsidised loans, and intervention funds.

When it comes to government assistance, there are lower interest rates for longer periods of time, more flexibility for the beneficiary. However, the availability of such assistance is often restricted, which is often accompanied by complex application procedures and lengthy delays. At the end of the day, although there is a lack of availability, government funding is still a major contributor to the country’s entrepreneurship base development and the economy’s overall growth.

Franchising

From a financing standpoint, franchising is a business model where an entrepreneur receives the right to operate a business under a specified brand for a fee or royalty. While it is not a direct cash resource, the model helps startup a business with lower risk and reduces the financing needed as it comes with brand recognition and an established business system.

In Nigeria, franchising is an approach that is widely adopted, particularly in the food services and hospitality industries. It is especially helpful to startups, as they do not need to build a business model from scratch, and if they need it, the franchising becomes a solid base for acquiring additional funds.

How to Choose the Right Source of Finance

How to choose the right Source of Finance will need balancing what the business needs, how much money is available, and the other goals they want to accomplish over time, since finance refers to how a business entity plans to raise funds from various sources of finance to support business operations and long-term business development.

business finance

Step-by-Step Approach to Choosing a Source of Finance

The first thing to do is say what the finance will go towards. Will it be designed to go towards working capital, purchasing raw materials, buying new assets like a new factory, or is it going to be used for expanding into new markets and securing capital for growth? After that, the company decides how much money it will need and how long it will need it for. This helps clarify whether the required sources of funds fall under short-term sources, often needed within one year, or long-term sources used to finance strategic investments.

The 3rd thing to do is to look at the advantages and disadvantages of each funding option, including risks and costs. Some of these will be interest payments, specific repayment terms, and whether financing involves debt or equity financing, which may dilute ownership or preserve the owner’s control. The business must assess if it will rely on borrowed funds, a secured loan, or equity capital, and whether it can manage repayment with interest, including principal and interest, without risking default or bankruptcy. In the end, the business should look at what it will be able to do and whether it should mix together a few main sources from various sources of finance to meet different business needs.

Factors Affecting the Need for Finance

There is a range of different reasons, that can affect the decisions that are made. Things like how big the business and what point in its lifecycle it’s at, which sector it’s in, and how stable its cash flow is. A new business is likely to need finance in the form of equity and government programs while an older company will likely go for a bank loan or use the money that is already in the company.

The economic climate will also have an influence on the cost and availability of finance in a certain country. Things like inflation and interest rates can make it more difficult to get finance in a certain country. Also the absence of certain regulations and the rules that have to be followed will affect what kind of external finance can be used or what type of external finance will be available.

Comparing Major Sources at a Glance

Internal sources lack scale but are less risky and cheaper. External sources are costly and more risky but can provide larger amounts. Equity financing is less risky in terms of repayments but ownership is diluted, while in debt financing, control is maintained but the risk is higher. Businesses need to understand these trade-offs to incorporate financing into their business strategy.

Conclusion

There are several sources of business finance in Nigeria, and these continue diversifying with the progress of the economy and the financial sector. Each of these sources, from internal such as retained earnings, to external like bank lending, government programs, and venture capital, are tailored to address specific business requirements.

This understanding enables entrepreneurs, managers to make accurate and timely decisions, mitigate risks, and facilitate growth. The optimal level of financing is more than a simple matter of availability as is often the case with entrepreneurs, but ensuring the financial architecture of the business is coherent with its objectives in the long term.

FAQs

What is the difference between internal and external sources of finance?

Internal sources are from the business itself like retained earnings and selling of assets, while external sources are from outside the business like banks, investors and government programs. Internal finance poses less risk, but external finance allows access to much larger funds.

How can startups access venture capital in Nigeria?

Accessing venture capital entails constructing sound business models, designing robust business plans, and then forming relationships with investors through incubators, accelerators, and other platforms. A clear organizational structure and the ability to catalyze substantial interest are invaluable.

What are the advantages of retained earnings as a source of finance?

The cost of retained earnings as a source of finance is low, as money does not need to be repaid. Furthermore, the business owner does not need to share control over the company. Retained earnings are also complementary to the financial position of the business. On the downside, retained earnings can only be used if a business is profitable, and may restrict growth if insufficient profits are generated.

How does leasing differ from hire purchase?

When leasing, a company can use an asset for a specified period of time, but ownership stays with the original owner. In hire purchase agreements, a business can use an asset for a specified time but takes ownership after making the required payment. A leasing agreement is flexible but hire purchase agreements are better for a purchase where an ownership is intended.

What government programs are available for business funding in Nigeria?

The Nigerian government, through its development finance institutions and government agencies, provides a wide range of activities, including lending to small and medium enterprises, offering intervention funds, as well as providing grants. These activities aim to support entrepreneurial activities, stimulate job creation, and develop specific sectors.

Continue Reading

Trending