Economy
Nigeria’s Consumer Confidence Level Gains 3 Points in Q4 2016—Report
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
A new report released by Nielsen Holdings Plc, a a global performance management firm providing a comprehensive understanding of what consumers watch and buy, has revealed that Nigeria climbed three points to 116 in the fourth quarter of 2016, after a steep decline in the third quarter.
In the latest Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) figures for Quarter 4 of 2016, it was observed that sentiment in the west of Africa is on the increase with Ghana rising by two points to 111.
Managing Director of Nielsen East and West Africa, Mr Abhik Gupta, while explaining the reasons for Nigeria’s improved consumer sentiment in a statement made available to Business Post, stated that, “Despite previous drops in consumer confidence, Nigerians are now more positive than Kenyans, South Africans and Ghanaians, in terms of their job prospects and personal finances and as the country’s macro, business and retail prospects recover we expect to see continued positivity amongst Nigerian consumers.”
Adding to this positive outlook, the latest Nielsen Africa Prospects Indicator (APi), which integrates macro-economic, business, retail and consumer factors points to the fact that predictions are that the worst is over and it will not take much to drive the Nigerian economy into positive growth levels in 2017.
Short term positivity in Nigeria
In light of this, all confidence indicators in Nigeria increased in the fourth quarter. The percentage of respondents who predict that their personal finances will be good or excellent in the next 12 months jumped five percentage points to 80 percent, and 59 percent of Nigerian respondents said job prospects will be good or excellent, up one percentage point from the third quarter.
Immediate-spending intentions increased four percentage points, rising to 39 percent while more than four in 10 Nigerian respondents (44 percent) said they had spare cash, up from 36 percent in the third quarter.
In terms of what they would use this spare cash for, the highest number of Nigerians are seeking to batten down the hatches on their current financial future, with 80 percent saying they would put it into savings.
The second highest number (69 percent) wants to use their spare cash on home improvements and decorating and 62% on investing in shares and mutual funds. Unsurprisingly, 60 percent would spend it on out-of-home entertainment as they seek some respite from their current daily stresses and strains.
Mixed positivity in Ghana’s results
The overall increase in Ghana’s CCI, was due to a higher proportion of “Excellent” responses even though “Good” responses have declined.
This means that despite the positive outlook for jobs dropping two percentage points from Q3 to an overall 55 percent, this was made up of 12 percent saying “Excellent” (up from 10 percent previous quarter) and 43 percent saying “Good”.
This was followed by positive personal-finance sentiment decreasing by one point to 76 percent, of which 23 percent said “Excellent” (up by 4 points) and 52 percent said “Good”.
Immediate-spending intentions dropped by two percentage points to 40 percent of which 10 percent said “Excellent” (up by 4 points) and 30 percent said “Good”.
Less than half of Ghanaian respondents said they had spare cash (47%) – a drop of 3 percentage points from the third quarter, however this proportion of consumers is higher than Nigerians (44 percent) and Kenyans (42 percent).
In terms of what they would use this spare cash for, Ghanaians remain financially conservative in their outlook, with the highest number (82 percent) saying they would put it into savings, the second highest number of respondents 72 percent see home improvements as a worthwhile investment while (59 percent) saying they would invest in shares/mutual funds.
Overall Gupta comments; “In the backdrop of improved confidence levels, businesses need to adjust to the altered daily habits that consumers are displaying to deal with the tough market conditions. As consumers have been forced to reduce consumption, only buying on an immediate need basis, businesses need to meet these new consumers realities with agility, flexible product offerings, packaging and pricing.”
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Naira recorded a marginal gain of 43 Kobo or 0.03 per cent against the United States Dollar on Wednesday, June 25, in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) to sell for N1,380.11/$1 compared with the previous day’s N1,380.54/$1.
However, the Nigerian currency lost N3.21 against the Pound Sterling in the official market during the session to close at N1,818.84/£1, in contrast to Wednesday’s exchange rate of N1,815.63/£1, and against the Euro, it fell by N3.21 to trade at N1,566.84/€1 versus midweek’s value of N1,563.63/€1.
In the same vein, the Nigerian Naira depreciated against the Dollar at the GTBank FX deck yesterday by N3 to sell for N1,383/$1 compared with the preceding session’s value of N1,380/$1, and at the black market window, it remained unchanged at N1,395/$1.
Interbank FX turnover at the NFEM window surged by about 56 per cent day-on-day to close at $195.371 million from $125.588 million reported on Wednesday, according to data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).
The Naira continues to feel the impact of rising FX payments and a strong US Dollar amid a sharp slowdown in forex market interventions by the central bank, with more than six weeks of no support for the local currency.
Nigeria’s foreign reserves increased further to $51.142 billion, while oil prices continue to be held in the $70 range by developments in the geopolitical scene.
Meanwhile, in the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin sank below $60,000 as more than $1 billion in crypto positions were liquidated over the past 24 hours, with longs accounting for $842 million of the damage. About 148,500 traders were wiped out. The largest single position was a $38 million bitcoin-dollar bet on Hyperliquid. It led at $489 million in liquidations and dropped 2.8 per cent to sell at $59,862.61.
Ethereum (ETH) crashed by 5.5 per cent to $1,554.57, Ripple (XRP) declined by 4.8 per cent to $1.03, Cardano (ADA) fell by 4.3 per cent to $0.1433, Dogecoin (DOGE) dropped 3.4 per cent to sell at $0.0745, TRON (TRX) slid 2.2 per cent to $0.3215, Binance Coin (BNB) slumped by 1.8 per cent to $561.34, and Solana (SOL) dipped by 0.3 per cent to $62.94, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) sold flat at $1.00 each.
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
The gantry price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), commonly known as petrol, has been cut down by N50 to N1,125 per litre from N1,175 per litre by Dangote Petroleum Refinery.
The refinery confirmed this development via a statement on Thursday to newsmen.
Dangote Refinery described this downward review of the product’s price as a reflection of its ongoing commitment to ensuring price stability, improving affordability, and supporting Nigeria’s energy security objectives.
It further said it underscores its responsiveness to prevailing market conditions and its efforts to pass on cost efficiencies to downstream partners and consumers.
In the statement, the company said it remains focused on its broader mission of contributing to economic growth, enhancing fuel availability, and fostering a more competitive and sustainable petroleum sector in Nigeria.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Crude oil prices rose more than 2 per cent on Thursday after a cargo vessel was hit by an unknown projectile near Oman, putting an evacuation effort for ships from the key Strait of Hormuz on hold.
Brent futures gained $1.52 or 2.1 per cent to settle at $75.26 a barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude chalked up $1.58 or 2.3 per cent to trade at $71.92 per barrel.
The flow of oil and gas has been disrupted since the joint US-Israeli attacks on Iran at the end of February, but the agreement between the US and Iran to end the war has allowed the resumption of traffic through the crucial strait.
The United Nations International Maritime Organisation on Thursday paused its effort to shepherd ships and seafarers through the strait after the cargo ship reported a suspected attack. This reawakened concerns about the worldwide flow of oil.
Reuters reported that Iran fired on the cargo ship as it attempted to pass through the strait after Iranian authorities said the security of vessels passing outside designated Hormuz routes is not guaranteed.
Previously, crude shipments through the strait rose to their highest since the start of the war on Wednesday. Before the war, about 20 per cent of world oil supplies passed through the Strait, located between Iran and Oman.
Key fuel oil producers Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Oman have moved to increase shipments from ports outside the Persian Gulf. Middle Eastern fuel oil exports are set to jump by 20 per cent from May to about 508,000 barrels per day in June.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Gulf allies on Thursday that any deal with Iran would take their interests into account, as he wrapped up a Middle East trip aimed at winning over regional partners with deep reservations about the preliminary accord.
The US and the six-member Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) said a lasting peace would mean addressing Iran’s ballistic missiles, drones and support for proxy groups. However, the US also threatened that if Iran threatens or blocks ships in the strait, there will be a “problem.”
The Wall Street Journal reported that Iran estimates charging for security, safety and environmental services in the strait, which would bring in $40 billion a year for the states involved.
In Venezuela, thousands were feared dead after two powerful earthquakes affected the capital, Caracas. The quakes could slow the increase in Venezuelan oil exports expected by US President Donald Trump’s administration after it captured Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro in January.
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