Economy
Nigeria’s Economy Gathers More Momentum
By FSDH Research
A review of the latest Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) published by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) for the month of April 2017 suggests that the Nigerian economy is on the way out of recession.
However, we believe more policies are required to achieve sustainable growth. The PMI report shows that the Composite Manufacturing Index (CMI) expanded for the first time in the year 2017 and attained the highest level so far in the year 2017.
The CMI increased to 51.1points in April 2017 from 47.7 points in March 2017. Although the Composite Non-Manufacturing Index (CNMI) is slightly below 50 points level, it increased to 49.5 points in April 2017 from 47.1 points recorded in March 2017 to attain the highest level in 16 months.
This represents the first month-on-month (MoM) increase after 16 consecutive months of decline.
The PMI report also shows that the production level in the manufacturing sector expanded for the second consecutive month, increasing to 58.5 points in April 2017 from 50.8 points in March 2017. PMI below 50 points level suggests a decline in business activity, PMI higher than 50 points level suggests an expansion while PMI at the 50 point level suggests no change.
We believe the increase in PMI is sustainable in the short to medium-term provided policies that increase access to credit and create an enabling business environment are pursued.
The monetary aggregates in Nigeria as at March 2017 show that the annualised growth rate in the money supply is below the target the CBN sets for the year 2017.
In Nigeria, narrow money supply (M1) is the sum of demand deposits and currency in circulation less the cash currency held in deposit money banks’ vault.
Quasi money supply (QM) is the savings deposits plus time deposits. Broad money supply (M2) is the sum of M1 and QM (M2 = M1 + QM). The M2 decreased by 7.17% to N22trillion in March 2017 from N23.7trillion in December 2016.
The major drop is from M1 which dropped by 12.71% to N10trillion in March 2017 from N11.4trillion in December 2016. The QM also dropped marginally by 2.03% to N12.1trillion from N12.3trillion in December 2016. We attribute the drop in M1 to the drop in demand deposits which in turn can be linked to a drop in private sector deposits with the CBN.
Demand deposits dropped by 13.46% to N8.3trillion in March 2017 from N9.6trillion in December 2016. Private sector deposits dropped by 36.68% to N2.1trillion in March 2017 from N3.4trillion in December 2016. The CBN’s growth target for M2 in 2017 is 10.29%, thus the contraction in Q1 2017 is at variance with the growth target for the year.
The efforts to combat high inflation rate, increase the supply of foreign exchange through foreign investment in the fixed income securities, and to sustain investment from the domestic investors, are responsible for the drop in money supply in Q1 2017. Net domestic credit increased marginally by 1.17% to N27.45trillion in March 2017 from N27.15trillion in December 2016, much lower than the growth target of 17.93% for 2017. The annualised growth rate in net domestic credit in Q1 2017 is 4.7%, also significantly below the target growth rate of 17.93% for 2017.
While net credit to the Federal Government increased in Q1 2017, the net credit to the private sector dropped. Net domestic credit to the Federal Government increased by 8.17% to N5.29trillion in March 2017 from N4.81trillion in December 2016 but the net domestic credit to private sector dropped by 0.33% to N22.27trillion in March 2017 from N22.35trillion in December 2017. Policies to increase money supply will be required when there is stability in the foreign exchange market and the inflation rate is moderated.
Source: FSDH Research
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
President Muhammadu Buhari has urged Nigerians to remain calm as they express their anger over the shortage of Naira in the financial system.
Since last week, many citizens of the country have been unable to access their funds in the banks because of a shortage in the supply of the redesigned Naira notes.
This has resulted in a huge crowd at banking premises across the nation, with several persons queuing at Automated Teller Machine (ATM) terminals waiting to withdraw their money with success.
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) redesigned the N200, N500, and N1,000 denominations last year and said the old notes would no longer be legal tender from January 31, 2023.
However, while many Nigerians approached their banks last Sunday to quickly deposit their funds to beat the deadline, the CBN announced that the deadline had been moved to February 10, 2023.
The next day, while customers attempted to withdraw their funds over the counter, they were informed that the apex bank had directed them (commercial banks) not to honour cash withdrawal requests.
Also, cash withdrawal from ATMs was limited, making it very difficult for businesses to operate, triggering a protest in Ibadan on Friday.
When the demonstration was going on, Governors of the All Progressives Congress (APC) were meeting with President Buhari to persuade him to do something about the Naira scarcity.
After the gathering, he said in a social media post that, “I am aware of the cash shortages and hardship being faced by people and businesses on account of the Naira redesign.
“I want to assure you that we are doing everything to resolve these issues. Nigerians should expect significant improvements between now and the February 10 deadline.
“I met with a delegation of Governors today on the matter. All the complaints about the execution of the currency change are being seriously looked into.
“I will ensure that everything is resolved in a lasting manner, and we will all enjoy the long-term benefits of the decision.”
By Adedapo Adesanya
The local currency appreciated by N2 on the United States Dollar at the Peer-2-Peer (P2P) foreign exchange (FX) window, closing at N760/$1 on Friday, February 3, compared with the previous day’s N762/$1, indicating a form of ease as tensions rose across the country following a cash crunch that has triggered anger and aggression in some states.
President Muhammadu Buhari stepped in on Friday and pleaded with Nigerians to give him seven days to resolve the crisis caused by the scarcity of new Naira notes.
The President said he had seen reports about cash shortages and the effect on local businesses and ordinary people.
In the Investors and Exporters (I&E) segment, the Naira recorded a 50 Kobo or 0.11 per cent upward movement against the US Dollar to trade at N461.50/$1 compared with the preceding day’s N462.00/$1.
The day’s trading data showed that the value of forex transactions during the official market slightly increased by 3.54 per cent or $4.08 million to $119.43 million from the $115.35 million recorded a day before.
But in the black market, the Nigerian currency depreciated against the Dollar by N1 to close at N753/$1, in contrast to Thursday’s exchange rate of N752/$1.
In the interbank window, the domestic currency closed flat against the British Pound Sterling and the Euro on Friday at N568.32/£1 and N507.14/€1, respectively.
At the cryptocurrency market, there was a mixed outcome across the tokens tracked by Business Post as moves by the US Federal Reserve to raise rates by 25 basis points continued to send jittery signals.
Binance Coin (BNB) recorded a 2.8 per cent rise to sell at $329.32, Dogecoin (DOGE) grew by 2.4 per cent to trade at $0.0935, Solana (SOL) appreciated by 1.1 per cent to $24.49, Ethereum (ETH) improved by 0.9 per cent to $1,654.18, Cardano (ADA) recorded a 0.6 per cent addition to quote at $0.4006, while Litecoin (LTC) rose by 0.4 per cent to $99.15.
However, Bitcoin (BTC) declined by 0.7 per cent to trade at $23,356.32, and Ripple (XRP) recorded a 0.2 per cent slump to trade at $0.4092, while Binance USD (BUSD) and the US Dollar Tether (USDT) closed flat at $1.00 each.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Brent fell below $80 per barrel as economic indicators raised fears and concerns about higher interest rates amid Europe’s plans to continue restricting Russia.
The international crude benchmark depreciated by $2.23 or 2.7 per cent to $79.94 a barrel, as the US West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) pointed south by $2.49 or 3.3 per cent to trade at $73.39 per barrel.
Prices fell to over three-week lows in a volatile session after strong US jobs data raised concerns about higher interest rates and as investors sought more clarity on the imminent EU embargo on Russian refined products.
It was a tough week for the commodity as Brent registered a 7.8 per cent decline this week while WTI dropped 7.9 per cent.
Job growth in the US accelerated sharply in January amid a persistently resilient labour market. However, analysts note that a further moderation in wage gains should give the Federal Reserve some comfort in its fight against inflation.
The strength in hiring, which occurred despite layoffs in the technology sector as well as in sectors like housing and finance that are sensitive to interest rates, doused market expectations that the US central bank was close to pausing its monetary policy tightening cycle.
The US central bank on Wednesday scaled back to a milder rate increase than those over the past year, but policymakers also projected that ongoing increases in borrowing costs would be needed.
Market analysts noted that the increases in interest rates in 2023 are likely to weigh on the US and European economies, boosting fears of an economic slowdown that is highly likely to dent global crude oil demand.
Also, European Union countries agreed to set price caps on Russian refined oil products to limit Moscow’s funds for its invasion of Ukraine.
EU diplomats said the price caps are $100 per barrel on products that trade at a premium to crude, principally diesel, and $45 per barrel for products that trade at a discount, such as fuel oil and naphtha.
Ambassadors for the 27 EU countries agreed on the European Commission proposal, which will apply from Sunday.
The price caps, together with an EU ban on Russian oil product imports, are part of a broader agreement among the Group of Seven (G7) countries.
It follows a $60 per barrel cap on Russian crude that G7 countries imposed on December 5 as the G7, the EU and Australia seek to limit Russia’s ability to fund its war in Ukraine.
Both caps prohibit Western insurance, shipping and other companies from financing, insuring, trading, brokering or carrying cargoes of Russian crude and oil products unless they were bought at or below the set price caps.
The Russian government said the EU embargo on Russia’s refined oil products would lead to a further imbalance in global energy markets.
In US supply, energy firms this week cut the number of oil and natural gas rigs by the most since June 2020, energy services firm Baker Hughes Co said. US oil rigs fell 10 to 599 this week, their lowest since September, while gas rigs dropped by two to 158.
