Economy
Nigeria’s Economy Gathers More Momentum

By FSDH Research
A review of the latest Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) published by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) for the month of April 2017 suggests that the Nigerian economy is on the way out of recession.
However, we believe more policies are required to achieve sustainable growth. The PMI report shows that the Composite Manufacturing Index (CMI) expanded for the first time in the year 2017 and attained the highest level so far in the year 2017.
The CMI increased to 51.1points in April 2017 from 47.7 points in March 2017. Although the Composite Non-Manufacturing Index (CNMI) is slightly below 50 points level, it increased to 49.5 points in April 2017 from 47.1 points recorded in March 2017 to attain the highest level in 16 months.
This represents the first month-on-month (MoM) increase after 16 consecutive months of decline.
The PMI report also shows that the production level in the manufacturing sector expanded for the second consecutive month, increasing to 58.5 points in April 2017 from 50.8 points in March 2017. PMI below 50 points level suggests a decline in business activity, PMI higher than 50 points level suggests an expansion while PMI at the 50 point level suggests no change.
We believe the increase in PMI is sustainable in the short to medium-term provided policies that increase access to credit and create an enabling business environment are pursued.
The monetary aggregates in Nigeria as at March 2017 show that the annualised growth rate in the money supply is below the target the CBN sets for the year 2017.
In Nigeria, narrow money supply (M1) is the sum of demand deposits and currency in circulation less the cash currency held in deposit money banks’ vault.
Quasi money supply (QM) is the savings deposits plus time deposits. Broad money supply (M2) is the sum of M1 and QM (M2 = M1 + QM). The M2 decreased by 7.17% to N22trillion in March 2017 from N23.7trillion in December 2016.
The major drop is from M1 which dropped by 12.71% to N10trillion in March 2017 from N11.4trillion in December 2016. The QM also dropped marginally by 2.03% to N12.1trillion from N12.3trillion in December 2016. We attribute the drop in M1 to the drop in demand deposits which in turn can be linked to a drop in private sector deposits with the CBN.
Demand deposits dropped by 13.46% to N8.3trillion in March 2017 from N9.6trillion in December 2016. Private sector deposits dropped by 36.68% to N2.1trillion in March 2017 from N3.4trillion in December 2016. The CBN’s growth target for M2 in 2017 is 10.29%, thus the contraction in Q1 2017 is at variance with the growth target for the year.
The efforts to combat high inflation rate, increase the supply of foreign exchange through foreign investment in the fixed income securities, and to sustain investment from the domestic investors, are responsible for the drop in money supply in Q1 2017. Net domestic credit increased marginally by 1.17% to N27.45trillion in March 2017 from N27.15trillion in December 2016, much lower than the growth target of 17.93% for 2017. The annualised growth rate in net domestic credit in Q1 2017 is 4.7%, also significantly below the target growth rate of 17.93% for 2017.
While net credit to the Federal Government increased in Q1 2017, the net credit to the private sector dropped. Net domestic credit to the Federal Government increased by 8.17% to N5.29trillion in March 2017 from N4.81trillion in December 2016 but the net domestic credit to private sector dropped by 0.33% to N22.27trillion in March 2017 from N22.35trillion in December 2017. Policies to increase money supply will be required when there is stability in the foreign exchange market and the inflation rate is moderated.
Source: FSDH Research
Economy
FG Vows to Tackle Rising Cost of Imported Fish Feed, Post-harvest Losses, Others

By Modupe Gbadeyanka
Stakeholders in the aquaculture subsector in Nigeria have been promised adequate support through favourable policies and financial inclusion.
This promise was made by the Minister of Marine and Blue Economy, Mr Adegboyega Oyetola, during a high-level consultative meeting with fisheries cooperative groups in Abuja on Wednesday.
Participants informed the Minister some of the challenges affecting the fishing business in the country, including overfishing, environmental degradation, lack of access to affordable finance, post-harvest losses, inadequate cold storage infrastructure, poor transportation and market linkages, low youth involvement, multiple taxation by local government authorities, and the rising cost of imported fish feed.
They appealed to the federal government to support them to end Nigeria’s dependence on fish importation so as to transform the sector into a powerhouse of food security, employment, and export competitiveness.
In his remarks, Mr Oyetola said the government would look into the demands, noting that efforts are being made to support women and youth in the fishing sector with start-up grants and other empowerment initiatives.
“We will scale up domestic fish production, reduce dependency on imports, and reposition the sector for sustainable growth,” he said, adding that, “Increasing youth participation in aquaculture is not only vital for food production but also a strategic solution to reducing unemployment. We are committed to ensuring that young people and women are not left behind in this transformation.”
According to him, discussions are ongoing with the World Bank to secure financial support for fish farmers and that the ministry will be collaborating with the Nigerian Agricultural Insurance Corporation (NAIC) to ensure affordable and accessible insurance coverage for fish farmers across the country.
“We are also in talks with the Federal Ministry of Water Resources to replicate the successful aquaculture model at the Oyan Dam in other parts of the country,” he added, pointing to integrated planning and inter-ministerial cooperation as key pillars of the strategy.
“This meeting is not the end — it is the beginning of a sustained and transformative dialogue,” the Minister assured.
The meeting, convened by the Federal Ministry of Marine and Blue Economy, brought together leaders and members of major fisheries and aquaculture associations, including the Fisheries Cooperative Federation of Nigeria (FCFN), Tilapia Aquaculture Developers Association of Nigeria (TADAN), Catfish Farmers Association of Nigeria (CAFAN), Women in Fish Farming and Aquaculture, and the Practicing Farmers Association of Nigeria.
Economy
Otedola’s 40% Acquisition Triggers Strong Appetite for First HoldCo Shares

By Aduragbemi Omiyale
Shares of First HoldCo Plc are currently being on high demand at the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited after information got out that serial entrepreneur, Mr Femi Otedola, is now in control of about 40 per cent of the financial services provider.
On Wednesday, the company was the busiest equity on Customs Street, selling 10.5 billion units valued at N324.5 billion.
The off-market block trading was executed through negotiated deals as the transactions were privately arranged between parties and then reported to the bourse.
It was learned that 17 separate deals took place involving First Securities Ltd as the buyer with CardinalStone Securities Limited, Meristem Stockbrokers Limited, Renaissance Capital (Rencap) Securities Limited, Regency Asset Management Limited, United Capital Securities Limited, Stanbic IBTC Stockbrokers Limited, and First Securities Limited also as sellers in some deals.
According to reports, the former chairman of First HoldCo, Mr Oba Otudeko, gave up more than 20 per cent of his stake in the organisation to his rival, Mr Otedola, who increased his shareholding from 15 per cent to 40 per cent, putting him in almost total control of the firm, which operates the flagship First Bank of Nigeria Limited.
It was gathered that Mr Otedola bought the 5 per cent equity stake belonging to another long term shareholder; the Hassan-Odukales, after voluntarily quitting the company.
Business Post observed that on Thursday, investors are jostling to take position in the company because of the latest acquisitions by Mr Otedola, who they believe could bring stability to the fold.
At the time of filing this report at midday trading, shares of FirstHoldCo were up by 9.94 per cent to N35.40 per unit from the N32.20 per unit they closed at midweek.
Economy
CBN Begins 301st MPC Meeting for July 21 as Analysts Eye Rate Cuts

By Adedapo Adesanya
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has announced that its 301st Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting is scheduled to take place on Monday, July 21 and Tuesday, July 22, 2025.
The MPC meeting, which will be held at the MPC Meeting Room located within the CBN Headquarters in Abuja, is one to watch as inflation eased again last month.
At the last meeting in May, which coincided with the 300th session, the team retained the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) at 27.50 per cent, the second consecutive hold in 2025.
This second pause in rates came after six consecutive hikes recorded in 2024
The CBN also retained the asymmetric corridor around the MPR at +500/-100 basis points, the Cash Reserve Ratio of Deposit Money Banks at 50.00 per cent, and that of Merchant Banks at 16.00 per cent, while keeping the Liquidity Ratio unchanged at 30.00 per cent.
The MPC based the decision on improvements in macroeconomic indicators at the time.
Now, analysts say the MPC may consider cutting interest rates since inflation has slowed for yet another month in June 2025.
On Wednesday, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that Nigeria’s headline inflation rate moderated for the third consecutive month to 22.22 per cent in June 2025 from 22.97 per cent in May 2025. It was 23.71 per cent in April 2025, down from 24.23 per cent in the prior month.
According to the latest Consumer Price Index report released by the bureau, the year-on-year figure reflects a 0.75 percentage point decline from the previous month and a significant 11.97 percentage point drop when compared to June 2024, which recorded an inflation rate of 34.19 per cent.
The food inflation rate stood at 21.97 per cent year-on-year in June, a sharp drop from 40.87 per cent recorded in June 2024. This significant fall is attributed largely to the base year effect.
On a month-on-month basis, food inflation rose to 3.25 per cent in June, up from 2.19 per cent in May, driven by price increases in staples such as tomatoes, pepper, dried green peas, crayfish, shrimps, meat, plantain flour, and ground pepper.
The decision next week will hinge on the ability of the county to navigate economic challenges including inflationary pressures, foreign exchange volatility, and the global economic outlook.
Despite these, many quarters including the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have lauded reforms introduced by the federal government aimed at boosting local production and reducing demand for forex, noting that such moves would help dampen inflationary pass-through.
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