Economy
Nigeria’s Growth Prospects Attractive Despite Dollar Scarcity—Moody’s
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
A latest report by global ratings firm, Moody’s, has stressed that while subdued US dollar supply in the context of prolonged lower oil prices remains a key challenge for corporates in Nigeria, especially those companies constrained by foreign exchange restrictions on certain imports, growth prospects over the next three years are attractive.
This was revealed in a report published Wednesday on Moody’s website titled ‘Corporates — Nigeria: US Dollar Scarcity Remains Key Challenge to Improvement in the Corporate Sector’ and it is available on www.moodys.com.
Moody’s subscribers can access this report via the link at the end of this press release. The report is an update to the markets and does not constitute a rating action.
“Nigeria is still undergoing a severe economic realignment to adjust to lower oil prices and the knock-on effect on its US dollar oil exports, which have led to reduced US dollar supply and lower GDP growth,” said Aurélien Mali, a Moody’s Vice President and local market analyst for the Government of Nigeria.
“The naira’s depreciation by nearly 60% in June partially cleared accumulated US dollar demand and stabilised foreign currency reserves. However, access to US dollars through official channels remains challenging for some companies.” said Douglas Rowlings, a Moody’s Assistant Vice President and the report’s co-author.
Foreign capital inflows into Nigeria are unlikely to rebound strongly as the existence of a parallel market acts as a deterrent. Investors are hesitant to invest capital into Nigeria as long as there is uncertainty around the propensity for a further devaluation of the naira versus the US dollar.
Moody’s expects foreign investment inflows to continue to be constrained until the parallel market Naira per US dollar exchange rate moves closer to the official exchange rate.
The supply of US dollars will improve over time as real growth rates pick up, which will be supported by investment by multinational corporates wishing to further strengthen their domestic position in Nigeria or establish a presence in the country. This, in turn, should be underpinned by improving GDP growth.
The foreign exchange limitation continues to pose challenges for corporates’ day-to-day operations, capital expenditure (capex) and financing activities.
Corporates servicing US dollar debt commitments will continue to have priority access to US dollars but will need to issue requests at least three months in advance to be assured of requisite availability, while corporates requiring US dollars for their purposes, such as capex outside Nigeria, will continue to face difficulties in obtaining sufficient US dollars.
Another source of US dollars through a rebound in oil production could support the reserves in the future, but it is hypothetical at this stage. If such a development were to occur at the current exchange rate, it could balance supply and demand for US dollars in Nigeria.
This, in turn, would lead to the eclipsing of the parallel market, which would encourage net portfolio inflows and should ensure that the official US dollar supply meets the total demand from Nigeria’s economy.
Looking ahead, growth prospects remain attractive for corporates over the next three years.
Although Moody’s expects Nigerian consumers’ purchasing power to remain under pressure over the next 18 months, both domestic and foreign investment is expected to take advantage of Nigeria’s compelling economic fundamentals and are likely to rebound once the economy has fully stabilised.
Nigeria remains the largest economy in sub-Saharan Africa on a purchasing power parity basis, offering a sizeable market for corporates. A growing middle class – both in percentage and absolute terms – and increasing consumer wealth levels will continue to support higher levels of discretionary income expenditure.
The report is available to Moody’s subscribers at http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBC_1044666
By Adedapo Adesanya
The duo of FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc and Geo-Fluids Plc weakened the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange by 0.12 per cent on Monday, March 16.
FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc lost N1.45 during the session to sell at N123.55 per share versus the previous price of N125.00 per share, and Geo Fluids Plc depreciated by 5 Kobo to N3.05 per unit from N3.10 per unit.
The losses recorded by the two securities lowered the market capitalisation by N8.88 billion to N2.480 trillion from N2.489 trillion, and crashed the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) by 14.86 points to 4,145.60 points from 4,160.46 points.
On the first trading day of the week, the value of securities transacted by investors went up by 10.8 per cent to N33.2 million from N29.9 million, but the volume of securities dipped 97.5 per cent to 265,610 units from 10.4 million units, and the number of deals decreased by 43.5 per cent to 26 deals from 46 deals.
At the close of trades, Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc was the most active stock by value on a year-to-date basis with 38.6 million units sold for N2.4 billion, followed by Okitipupa Plc with 6.4 million units traded for N1.2 billion, and FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc with 6.5 million units worth N609.6 million.
Resourcery Plc closed the day as the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis with 1.1 billion units valued at N415.6 million, trailed by Geo-Fluids Plc with 130.8 million units transacted for N504.5 million, and CSCS Plc with 38.6 million units exchanged for N2.4 billion.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Naira opened the week stronger against the United States Dollar in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) on Monday, March 16, by N8.46 or 0.62 per cent to trade at N1,357.77/$1 compared with the previous session’s N1,366.23/$1.
In the same vein, the local currency appreciated against the Pound Sterling in the same market segment yesterday by N23.45 to quote at N1,789.54/£1 compared with last Friday’s value of N1,812.99/£1, and improved its value against the Euro by N9.72 to N1,558.31/€1 from N1,568.03/€1.
Similarly, the Naira gained N5 against the greenback in the parallel market during the trading session to sell for N1,395/$1 compared with the previous rate of N1,400/$1, and closed flat at the GTBank FX desk at N1,385/$1.
The pressure that piled on the domestic currency appeared to have eased, buoyed by higher oil prices, which have continued to bolster market sentiment.
A report by Coronation Merchant Bank Research said Brent crude prices advanced by 11.16 per cent week-on-week, rising from $91.00 per barrel to close at $101.16 per barrel amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
The bank noted that developments in the region heightened concerns about potential disruptions to global oil supply, increasing volatility in energy markets.
Nigeria recorded modest portfolio inflows as investors sought higher-yielding opportunities, but the inflows helped support liquidity in the FX market and contributed to the Naira’s recovery during the past week.
Also, Nigeria’s inflation cooled to 15.06 per cent in February 2026 from 15.10 per cent in January 2026, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed.
As for the cryptocurrency market, prices continued to weigh the tensions around the Strait of Hormuz — a critical oil shipping route between the Persian Gulf and global markets — appeared to ease slightly.
US President Donald Trump called on other nations to help secure the waterway, while some tankers reportedly have crossed the Strait, suggesting that traffic through the corridor has not been fully disrupted.
This weakened some coins, including Dogecoin (DOGE), which slumped by 1.7 per cent to $0.0998, and Cardano (ADA), which depreciated 1.6 per cent to $0.2832. Binance Coin (BNB) lost 1.5 per cent to sell for $674.25, TRON (TRX) declined by 0.6 per cent to $0.2964, and Solana (SOL) dropped 0.2 per cent to $93.66.
On the flip side, Ripple (XRP) jumped 2.2 per cent to $1.51, Ethereum (ETH) grew by 1.5 per cent to $2,302.08, and Bitcoin (BTC) appreciated by 0.1 per cent to $73,951.40, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) closed flat at $1.00 each.
By Dipo Olowookere
The All-Share Index (ASI) of the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited reached an all-time high of 201,474.89 points on Monday after adding 3,067.59 points or 1.55 per cent to its previous closing figures of 198,407.30 points.
Buying pressure in three of the five key sectors sustained the upward trend on Customs Street during the trading session, analysis of the market data revealed.
The industrial goods sector appreciated by 4.52 per cent, the banking index improved by 2.20 per cent, and the consumer goods space rose by 0.03 per cent.
However, the insurance sector experienced profit-taking, which crashed it by 0.43 per cent, and the energy counter lost 0.08 per cent due to sell-offs.
When the bourse ended for the day, the market capitalisation chalked up N1.969 trillion to settle at N129.330 trillion compared with last Friday’s M127.361 trillion.
BUA Cement led the advancers’ group yesterday after growing by 10.00 per cent to N297.00, Premier Paints jumped 9.79 per cent to N21.30, John Holt expanded by 9.52 per cent to N10.35, Guinea Insurance soared by 9.38 per cent to N1.40, and Fortis Global Insurance grew by 9.32 per cent to N1.29.
On the flip side, VFD Group led the laggards’ gang after it gave up 10.00 per cent to close at N11.25, Royal Exchange shed 9.63 per cent to settle at N1.69, Omatek depreciated by 9.62 per cent to N2.35, Sovereign Trust Insurance lost 9.00 per cent to quote at N1.92, and Regency Alliance slipped by 8.94 per cent to N1.12.
Yesterday, a total of 948.2 million stocks valued at N49.2 billion were traded in 72,735 deals compared with 591.0 million stocks worth N35.0 billion transacted in 53,066 deals in the preceding session, representing an improvement in the trading volume, value, and number of deals by 60.44 per cent, 40.57 per cent, and 37.07 per cent apiece.
The activity log was led by Sovereign Trust Insurance, which traded 72.6 million equities valued at N147.1 million, Access Holdings sold 69.9 million shares for N1.8 billion, First Holdco exchanged 67.0 million stocks worth N3.4 billion, Zenith Bank transacted 60.0 million equities valued at N6.0 billion, and Nigerian Breweries exchanged 55.0 million shares worth N4.0 billion.
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