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Economy

Oil Market Shrinks as Supply Outlook Offsets Disruptions

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crude oil market

By Adedapo Adesanya

The oil market went down on Monday as investors balanced disruptions linked to escalating US-Venezuelan tensions with oversupply concerns and the impact of a potential Russia-Ukraine peace deal.

Brent crude futures lost 56 cents or 0.92 per cent to sell for $60.56 a barrel and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures depreciated by 62 cents or 1.08 per cent to close at $56.82 a barrel.

The market is closely monitoring developments and their impact on oil supply, with Reuters reporting that the US plans to intercept more ships carrying oil from Venezuela following the MV Skipper tanker seizure last week, intensifying pressure on Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.

Venezuela’s oil exports have fallen sharply since the US seized a tanker last week and imposed fresh sanctions on shipping companies and vessels doing business with the South American oil producer.

However, despite this development – ample oil supplies continues to go China which is Venezuela’s biggest oil buyer. This is in addition to plentiful global supplies and weaker demand which are capping some of the impact of supply disruptions tied to the tanker seizure.

China has been stockpiling crude oil at a daily rate of around 1 million barrels this year. It has also been building new storage capacity. This year and next will see a total of 11 new storage sites built across the country, with a combined capacity of some 169 million barrels. By building new storage capacity, the  world’s largest importer can keep buying more crude.

Pressure also mounted on the market over progress in the US peace talks to resolve the 46 months war between Russia and Ukraine. The Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has offered to drop his country’s aspiration to join the NATO military alliance, one of the reasons Russia says it attacked the sovereign nation in 2022.

A possible peace deal could eventually increase Russian oil supply, which is currently sanctioned by Western countries.

Adding to pressure, China’s factory output there slowed to a 15-month low in November, while retail sales grew at their weakest pace since December 2022.

J.P. Morgan Commodities Research said in a note on Saturday that oil surpluses in 2025 were expected to widen further into 2026 and 2027, as global oil supply was projected to outpace demand. Goldman Sachs sees a large surplus on the market, with WTI Crude expected to average $53 per barrel in 2026.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

Economy

NASD Unlisted Security Index Jumps 0.33% to 3,650.94 Points

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NASD Unlisted Security Index

By Adedapo Adesanya

The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange improved by 0.33 per cent on Monday, January 26 on the back of renewed appetite for unlisted stocks by investors.

This moved the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) higher by 11.84 points to 3,650.94 points from the 3,639.10 points it ended when the market last opened for business.

In the same vein, the market capitalisation of the alternative stock exchange increased by N7.08 billion to end N2.184 trillion compared with last Friday’s closing value of N2.177 trillion.

Eight securities witnessed movements during the first trading day of this week, with five in the green side and three in the red zone.

FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc led the gainers group after  it recorded a price appreciation of N3.47 Kobo to sell at N69.70 per share versus N66.23 per share, Air Liquide Plc added N1.54 to close at N16.94 per unit versus N15.40 per unit, Afriland Properties Plc rose by N1.43 to N16.03 per share from N14.60 per share, IPWA Plc gained 20 Kobo to trade at N2.17 per unit versus N1.97 per unit, and Acorn Petroleum Plc surged by 1 Kobo to N1.30 per share versus last Friday’s N1.29 per share.

On the flip side, Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc dropped 14 Kobo to close at N40.67 per unit versus N40.81 per unit, UBN Property Plc shrank by 9 Kobo to N2.00 per share from N2.09 per share, and Industrial and General Insurance (IGI) Plc lost 6 Kobo to close at 63 Kobo per unit versus 69 Kobo per unit.

Yesterday, the trading volume slipped by 33.3 per cent to 6.8 million units from 10.2 million units, as the trading value declined by 17.3 per cent to N156.7 million from N189.5 million, and the number of deals decreased by 10.2 per cent to 44 deals from 49 deals.

At the close of trades, CSCS Plc was the most active stock by value (year-to-date) with 14.2 million units worth N575.9 million, followed by FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc with 915,905 units sold for N61.7 million, and MRS Oil Plc with 296,801 units traded for N59.3 million.

CSCS  Plc was also the most active stock by volume (year-to-date) with 14.2 million units valued at N576.0 million, trailed by Geo-Fluids Plc with 7.7 million units worth N52.4 million, and Mass Telecom Innovation Plc with 6.3 million units worth N2.5 million.

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Economy

Nigerian Exchange Opens Week Flat on Cautious Trading

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Nigerian Exchange Limited

By Dipo Olowookere

The first trading session of the week at the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited ended in a stalemate as investors activated the cautious trading button.

It was observed that the key performance indices of the bourse remained relatively unchanged during the trading day, as the activity level slightly went down at the close of business.

Yesterday, the All-Share Index (ASI) was marginally up by 5.38 points to 165,517.56 points from 165,512.18 points and the market capitalisation gained N4 billion to settle at N105.963 trillion compared with last Friday’s N105.959 trillion.

NPF Microfinance Bank topped the advancers’ log after chalking up 10.00 per cent to sell for N5.61, Morison Industries appreciated by 9.97 per cent to N8.27, Union Homes REIT jumped by 9.95 per cent to N78.45, Deap Capital expanded by 9.94 per cent to N7.85, and Zichis rose by 9.92 per cent to N2.88.

On the flip side, May and Baker declined by 10.00 per cent to N39.15, Neimeth depreciated by 9.81 per cent to N11.95, ABC Transport slipped by 9.33 per cent to N5.15, CWG tumbled by 9.05 per cent to N22.10, and Sovereign Trust Insurance crashed by 8.97 per cent to N3.45.

Investor sentiment remained bearish as Customs Street ended with 35 price gainers and 37 price losers, representing a negative market breadth index.

A total 601.7 million equities worth N17.3 billion were transacted in 58,429 deals during the session compared with 731.7 million equities valued at N19.1 billion traded in 44,005 deals in the preceding trading day, showing a surge in the number of deals by 32.78 per cent and a dip in the trading volume and value by 17.77 per cent and 9.42 per cent apiece.

Chams was the busiest stock for the session with 41.6 million units sold for N210.1 million, Access Holdings exchanged 34.4 million units valued at N768.6 million, GTCO transacted 31.6 million units worth N3.1 billion, Zenith Bank transacted 26.0 million units valued at N1.8 billion, and Guinea Insurance traded 25.0 million units worth N33.2 million.

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Economy

Naira Sells N1,418/$1 at Official Market, N1,480/$1 at Black Market

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Black Market

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Naira put up a better performance against United States Dollar in the different segments of the foreign exchange (FX) market on Monday, January 26, though it traded flat at the GTBank forex desk at N1,430/$1 at the close of transactions.

In the black market, the Nigerian Naira improved its value against the US Dollar yesterday by N5 to close at N1,480/$1 compared with the preceding trading day’s value of N1,485/$1. It had maintained stability for several days before appreciating on Monday.

In the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) window, the domestic currency further gained N2.68 or 0.19 per cent on the greenback to quote at N1,418.95/$1, in contrast to last Friday’s price of N1,421.63/$1.

Equally, the local currency appreciated against the Pound Sterling in the official market by N3.05 to settle at N1,921.12/£1 compared with the previous session’s N1,924.17/£1 and chalked up N3.60 on the Euro to trade at N1,682.31/€1, in contrast to the preceding session’s closing price of N1,669.56/€1.

It has been projected that the Naira will continue to trade at expected range buoyed by improved FX market efficiency, higher capital inflows, a current account surplus, and a broad-based economic recovery. It is thus expected to maintain this momentum in the near-term backed by a favourable supply environment as well as sustained diaspora remittances.

Nigeria’s external reserves have maintained a steady growth trajectory, rising to an eight-year high of $46.01 billion as of January 22, 2025, according to data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). The last time the country’s foreign currency reserves reached a similar level was on August 24, 2018, when they stood at $46.09 billion.

As for the cryptocurrency market, major tokens closed higher as investors looked ahead of the Federal Reserve decision. However, traders fear that gains may be limited as a weaker Dollar and rising geopolitical uncertainty have fueled gains in equities and precious metals, safer havens than digital assets.

Litecoin (LTC) rose by 2.8 per cent to $69.43, Ethereum (ETH) grew by 2.4 per cent to $2,936.42, Solana (SOL) gained 1.7 per cent to sell at $124.33, Cardano (ADA) increased by 1.6 per cent to $0.3520,Binance Coin (BNB) went up by 1.6 per cent to $883.71, Ripple (XRP) which appreciated by 1.2 per cent to $1.89, Bitcoin (BTC) soared by 0.8 per cent to $88,367.32, and Dogecoin (DOGE) advanced by 0.8 per cent to $0.1223, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) traded flat at $1.00 each.

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