Economy
Oil Rallies on Tight Global Supply, Rising Demand

By Adedapo Adesanya
The oil market rallied on Monday and touched its highest point since January 2022, supported by signs of tightening global supply and rising demand through the rest of this year.
Brent crude futures rose $1.02 or 1.2 per cent to settle at $85.43 a barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rallied $1.22 or 1.5 per cent to $81.80 a barrel.
Support came as Saudi Arabia is expected to extend a voluntary oil output cut of 1 million barrels per day for another month, including September. It had initially been planned for July and August.
This is coming as Saudi output fell by 860,000 barrels per day in July, while total production from the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) was 840,000 barrels per day lower.
According to Reuters, OPEC oil output fell in July after supply cuts in Nigeria joined Saudi Arabia’s additional voluntary cut as part of the wider OPEC+ producer group’s latest agreement to support the market.
In the month, Shell Nigeria suspended loadings of Forcados crude due to a potential leak at the export terminal, while Libyan output edged lower due to a brief stoppage at some fields due to a protest.
OPEC’s output is still undershooting the targeted amount by almost 1 million barrels per day, partly because Nigeria and Angola lack the capacity to pump as much as their agreed level.
Russia has pledged a 500,000 barrels per day cut to August oil exports, and signs suggest Russian crude shipments are already falling.
On the other hand, demand is resilient and headed for a record high in the coming months.
According to analysts including Goldman Sachs and oil executives, including ExxonMobil’s CEO, Mr Darren Woods, the world will see a record-high demand for oil this year.
Goldman Sachs estimated that global oil demand rose to a record 102.8 million barrels per day in July. It revised 2023 demand by about 550,000 barrels per day on stronger economic growth estimates in India and the US, offsetting a downgrade for China’s consumption.
The macroeconomic sentiment has also improved, with the recent inflation data from the US showing slowing price increases and China expected to support its economy out of the slower-than-expected growth in the second quarter.
Economy
Crude Oil Market Down Amid Uncertainties in US-Iran, Russia-Ukraine Talks

By Adedapo Adesanya
The crude oil market was down on Tuesday due to uncertainty in US-Iran negotiations and Russia-Ukraine peace talks, with Brent futures losing 16 cents or 0.2 per cent to settle at $65.38 per barrel and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures sliding by 13 cents or 0.2 per cent to $62.56 per barrel.
Iran’s Supreme Leader, Mr Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said US demands that it stop enriching uranium are “excessive and outrageous,” leading to doubts whether talks on a new nuclear deal will succeed.
Iran is the third-largest producer among the members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) behind Saudi Arabi and Iraq.
A deal between Iran and the US would allow Iran to raise oil exports by 300,000 to 400,000 barrels per day if sanctions were eased.
The European Union (EU) and the United Kingdom announced new sanctions against Russia without waiting for the US to join them.
This development came a day after US President Donald Trump spoke to Russian President Vladimir Putin without winning a promise for a ceasefire in Ukraine.
Ukraine wants the Group of Seven (G7) advanced economies to reduce their price cap on Russian seaborne oil to $30 per barrel. The current G7 cap, imposed over Russia’s war in Ukraine, is $60.
Market analysts believe that the war wouldn’t end soon, but believe that more negotiations will take place.
If a deal is reached, it could allow Russia, a member of OPEC and its allies known as OPEC+, to export more oil to the world.
Meanwhile new government data delivered a cautious outlook for top crude-importer China’s economy.
Data showed decelerating industrial output growth and retail sales in China piled more pressure on oil prices.
US crude oil stocks rose last week while gasoline (petrol) and distillate inventories fell, according to the American Petroleum Institute (API) figures on Tuesday.
Crude stocks in the US, the world’s biggest oil consumer, rose by 2.5 million barrels in the week ended May 16, the sources said on condition of anonymity.
Investors are also looking ahead to government US oil stock data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) later on Wednesday.
Also, Kazakhstan’s oil production rose by 2 per cent in May, an increase that defies pressure from OPEC+ on the country to reduce its output.
Economy
Customs Street Rebounds as CBN Leaves Rates Unchanged

By Dipo Olowookere
The stock market marginally increased by 0.03 per cent on Tuesday after the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) decided to retain the benchmark interest rate at 27.50 per cent to monitor the effect of the recent drop in inflation.
The rebound at Customs Street yesterday occurred amid a pocket of profit-taking in key sectors of the market, especially in the banking space.
Data showed that the industrial goods sector shed 1.25 per cent, the consumer goods industry fell by 0.87 per cent, the commodity counter depreciated by 0.22 per cent, and the banking index went down by 0.14 per cent.
However, the gains recorded by the insurance and energy sectors lifted the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited as they respectively closed higher by 1.41 per cent and 0.25 per cent.
Consequently, the All-Share Index (ASI) improved by 32.64 points to 109,730.47 points from 109,697.83 points, and the market capitalisation jumped by N21 billion to N68.966 trillion from N68.945 trillion.
During the session, the market participants bought and sold 487.1 million stocks worth N13.0 billion in 18,587 deals compared with the 486.1 million stocks valued at N11.4 billion traded in 24,883 deals a day earlier, indicating a shortfall in the number of deals by 25.30 per cent, and a leap in the trading volume and value by 0.21 per cent and 14.04 per cent, respectively.
Fidelity Bank witnessed increased activity yesterday, ostensibly because of the recent news report about a judgement debt from the Supreme Court.
Despite the clarification made by the lender concerning the issue, it came under selling pressure on Tuesday, with 60.2 million units sold for N1.1 billion to lead the activity chart.
UBA transacted 36.4 million units worth N1.3 billion, Custodian Investment traded 35.6 million units valued at N698.8 million, Tantalizers exchanged 27.6 million units for N76.4 million, and United Capital traded 26.7 million units worth N496.4 million.
Business Post reports that investor sentiment was weak during the trading day, with a negative market breadth after the bourse ended with 31 price gainers and 32 price losers.
The trio of Regency Alliance, Tripple G, and Nestle Nigeria gained 10.00 per cent each to sell for 66 Kobo, N2.20, and N1464.10 apiece, as Tantalizers appreciated by 9.88 per cent to N2.78 and Multiverse improved by 9.60 per cent to N9.70.
On the flip side, Berger Paints depreciated by 9.98 per cent to N21.20, Mutual Benefits shed 9.80 per cent to settle at 92 Kobo, ABC Transport tumbled by 9.77 per cent to N2.40, Aradel Holdings crashed by 8.55 per cent to N460.00, and Caverton lost 7.09 per cent to trade at N3.80.
Economy
Naira Now Stable, More Competitive—Cardoso

By Adedapo Adesanya
The Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Mr Yemi Cardoso, says the Naira is stable and more competitive in the foreign exchange market, indicating stability for the Nigerian economy.
He made the disclosure at the end of the 300th Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting in Abuja on Tuesday, May 20, where key interest rates were held steady for yet another period.
“Given the relative stability in the foreign exchange market, members urge the bank to sustain the implementation of the ongoing reforms to further boost the economy,” Mr Cardoso said.
Business Post reports that the Naira had closed at N1,598 per Dollar at the official FX market on Monday.
He said the MPC also lauded new policies introduced by the federal government to boost local production, reduce foreign exchange demand pressure, and lessen the pass-through of higher rates to domestic prices.
The CBN Governor also said the MPC believes that the Nigerian economy is now stable, urging private individuals interested in investing in the economy to take the initiative.
The apex bank retained the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) at 27.50 per cent, same as the asymmetric corridor around the MPR at +500/-100 basis points, and helf the Cash Reserve Ratio of Deposit Money Banks at 50.00 per cent and Merchant Banks at 16 per cent, and retain the Liquidity Ratio at 30.00 per cent.
While relating the decision of the MPC on Tuesday, Mr Cardoso referenced the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) inflation rate for April, pegged at 23.71 per cent.
According to NBS, the annual inflation rate fell to 23.71 per cent in April 2025, from 24.23 per cent in the prior month. Food inflation, the largest component of the inflation basket, remained elevated but moderated to 21.26 per cent from 21.79 per cent in March, mainly on account of prices of some items such as maize, wheat, yam and wheat.
“The inflation numbers speak for themselves. The overall trajectory is in the right direction. There is no one solution to solve the economic challenges. What will solve the problem is a multiplicity of overall efforts.
“The journey will begin to yield greater results as time goes on, given the relative stability in the foreign exchange market,” he said.
The CBN Governor added that the Naira is more competitive and “this should encourage more exports if we continue in the trajectory. I am very optimistic.”
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