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Okomu Oil: Compelling Growth Story Despite Weak Earnings

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By Cordros Research

We update on OKOMUOIL following the 2018FY results and our recent discussion with management. After the unimpressive performance in 2018FY, we forecast EPS to grow by 2.3% in 2019 and 24.6% average over 2020-2021E, with a TP of N93.62/s (previously N91.57/s).

Our revised estimate is driven by both the resurgent price of CPO and the expected boost to volume from additional mature plantations coming on stream both in 2020 and 2021, which should offset persisting energy cost challenges.

CPO volume growth will be muted in 2019: We estimate that CPO volume grew by +22.1% in 2018, supported by higher production from oil mills (+8% y/y) as previous acreage areas replanted matured. With no new maturities expected until 2020E, we do not see CPO sales volume exceeding 2018 level in 2019.

Management, in our recent discussion, guided to flattish to marginal CPO volume growth in 2019. However, we look for strong volume growth in 2020 and 2021, with a further 4,500ha of mature plantation expected to come on stream from Extension II each year, according to management.

Overall, we estimate 46,036MTs will be achieved in 2019 (+1.3% y/y), and volume growth to average 19.7% over 2020-2023E.

Higher selling prices will support revenue: Elsewhere, the narrowing glut in the global CPO market (c. 2,464kMT vs. 4,562kMT in 2018) potentially bodes well for CPO prices in 2019.

Given that domestic CPO price tracks global price, we expect that higher international market prices will pass through to domestic prices.

To buttress, while unfavourable weather conditions are expected to weigh on global supply, demand resurgence in India – which accounts for 15% of global consumption – is expected to lift global demand.

By implication, we project mean CPO price to be 5% higher in 2019 vs. 2018.

On the contrary, however, we hold the view that persisting global stock accumulation will continue to weigh on rubber prices, thus limiting the scope for export sales for OKOMUOIL. Overall, we project +6.9% y/y revenue growth in 2019E and 28.8% average over 2020-2021E.

Albeit with limited pass through to gross margin: We revise our gross margin estimate for 2019E 36 bps lower to 73.1%, reflecting continued CoGS pressure. The company reported 74% y/y and 26% y/y expansion in Q4-18 and 2018FY CoGS respectively.

Management attributed the CoGs pressure in 2018 to energy supply challenges (as only 41% vs. target of 60%, of its energy requirements was supplied by BEDC1, with generator set supplying the balance) which (are not under its control and) have not been addressed.

Higher finance charges to cap pre-tax profits: With the one-year moratorium on the N1.95 billion concessionary loan from the Bank of Industry (BOI) ending last year, we expect interest payment to commence in 2019, potentially increasing finance charges by 83% y/y to N537 million, on our estimate.

Estimates and valuation: The net impact of our adjustment translates to growth in PBT and PAT of 5.2% y/y and 2.3% y/y respectively in 2019, and average EPS growth of 24.6% in 2020-2021E.

Our new TP of N93.6/s implies total upside of 21% after incorporating expected dividend yield of 4.0%.

OKOMUOIL currently trades at P/E and EV/EBITDA of 8.89x and 8.06x, significant discounts to its Middle East and Africa peer averages of 16.6x and 18.6x. We upgrade our recommendation to BUY, from HOLD.

Modupe Gbadeyanka is a fast-rising journalist with Business Post Nigeria. Her passion for journalism is amazing. She is willing to learn more with a view to becoming one of the best pen-pushers in Nigeria. Her role models are the duo of CNN's Richard Quest and Christiane Amanpour.

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Economy

Dangote Refinery Imports $3.74bn Crude in 2025 to Bridge Supply Gap

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Dangote refinery import petrol

By Adedapo Adesanya

Dangote Petroleum Refinery imported a total of $3.74 billion) worth of crude oil in 2025, to make up for shortfalls that threatened the plant’s 650,000-barrel-a-day operational capacity.

The data disclosed in the Central Bank of Nigeria’s Balance of Payments report noted that “Crude oil imports of $3.74 billion by Dangote Refinery” contributed to movements in the country’s current account position, as Nigeria imported crude oil worth N5.734 trillion between January and December 2025.

Last year, as the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC), which is the refinery’s main trade partner and minority stakeholder, faced its challenges, the company had to forge alternative supply links. This led to the importation of crude from Brazil, Equatorial Guinea, Angola, Algeria, and the US, among others.

For instance, in March 2025, the company said it now counts Brazil and Equatorial Guinea among its global oil suppliers, receiving up to 1 million barrels of the medium-sweet grade Tupi crude at the refinery on March 26 from Brazil’s Petrobras.

Meanwhile, crude oil exports dropped from $36.85 billion in 2024 to $31.54 billion in 2025, representing a 14.41 per cent decline, further shaping the external balance.

The report added that the refinery’s operations also reduced Nigeria’s reliance on imported fuel, noting that “availability of refined petroleum products from Dangote Refinery also led to a substantial decline in fuel imports.”

Specifically, refined petroleum product imports fell sharply to $10.00 billion in 2025 from $14.06 billion in 2024, representing a 28.9 per cent decline, while total oil-related imports also eased.

However, this was offset by a rise in non-oil imports, which increased from $25.74 billion to $29.24 billion, up 13.6 per cent year-on-year, reflecting sustained demand for foreign goods.

At the same time, the goods account remained in surplus at $14.51 billion in 2025, rising from $13.17 billion in 2024, supported largely by activities linked to the Dangote refinery and improved export performance in other segments.

The CBN stated that the stronger goods balance was driven by “significant export of refined petroleum products worth $5.85bn by Dangote Refinery,” alongside increased gas exports to other economies.

Nigeria posted a current account surplus of $14.04 billion in 2025, lower than the $19.03 billion recorded in 2024 but significantly higher than $6.42 billion in 2023. The decline from 2024 was driven partly by structural changes in oil trade flows, including crude imports for domestic refining, according to the report.

Pressure on the current account came from higher external payments. Net outflows for services rose from $13.36 billion in 2024 to $14.58 billion in 2025, driven by increased spending on transport, travel, insurance, and other services.

Similarly, net outflows in the primary income account surged by 60.88 per cent to $9.09 billion, largely due to higher dividend and interest payments to foreign investors.

In contrast, secondary income inflows declined slightly from $24.88 billion in 2024 to $23.20 billion in 2025, as official development assistance and personal transfers weakened, although remittances remained a key source of inflow, as domestic refineries grappled with persistent feedstock shortages, exposing a deepening supply paradox in the country’s oil sector.

This comes despite the Federal Government’s much-publicised naira-for-crude policy designed to prioritise local supply.

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Economy

Sovereign Trust Insurance Submits Application for N5.0bn Rights Issue

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Sovereign Trust Insurance

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

An application has been submitted by Sovereign Trust Insurance Plc for its proposed N5.0 billion rights issue.

The application was sent to the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited, and it is for approval to list shares from the exercise when issued to qualifying shareholders.

A notice signed by the Head of Issuer Regulation Department of the exchange, Mr Godstime Iwenekhai, disclosed that the request was filed on behalf of the underwriting firm by its stockbrokers, Cordros Securities Limited, Dynamic Portfolio Limited and Cedar of Lebanon Securities.

The company intends to raise about N5.022 billion from the rights issue to boost its capital base, as demanded by the National Insurance Commission (NAICOM) for insurers in the country.

Sovereign Trust Insurance plans to issue 2,510,848,144 ordinary shares of 50 Kobo each at N2.00 per share on the basis of three new ordinary shares for every 17 existing ordinary shares held as of the close of business on Tuesday, March 17, 2026.

“Trading license holders are hereby notified that Sovereign Trust Insurance has through its stockbrokers, Cordros Securities Limited, Dynamic Portfolio Limited and Cedar of Lebanon Securities, submitted an application to Nigerian Exchange Limited for the approval and listing of a rights issue of 2,510,848,144 ordinary shares of 50 Kobo each at N2.00 per share on the basis of three new ordinary shares for every 17 existing ordinary shares held as of the close of business on Tuesday, March 17, 2026,” the notification read.

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Economy

Food Concepts Plans 10 Kobo Interim Dividend Payout

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food concepts

By Adedapo Adesanya

Food Concepts Plc, the parent company of fast food brands like Chicken Republic and PieXpress, has disclosed plans to pay 10 Kobo in interim dividend to new and existing shareholders for the 2026 financial year.

This was disclosed by the company in a notice to the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange, where it trades its securities.

The notice indicated that the proposed interim dividend, which comes with no bonus, will be paid to those who hold the stocks of the company as of the qualification date for the dividend, which was Tuesday, March 24.

This means only those who hold the company’s shares as of the closing session will be eligible to receive the stipulated dividend payment.

The shareholders of the company will be credited with the 10 Kobo dividend on Tuesday, March 31.

The notice noted that the closure of the company’s register will be on Wednesday, March 25, through Friday, March 27, 2026, both days inclusive.

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