Economy
Okomu Oil: Compelling Growth Story Despite Weak Earnings
By Cordros Research
We update on OKOMUOIL following the 2018FY results and our recent discussion with management. After the unimpressive performance in 2018FY, we forecast EPS to grow by 2.3% in 2019 and 24.6% average over 2020-2021E, with a TP of N93.62/s (previously N91.57/s).
Our revised estimate is driven by both the resurgent price of CPO and the expected boost to volume from additional mature plantations coming on stream both in 2020 and 2021, which should offset persisting energy cost challenges.
CPO volume growth will be muted in 2019: We estimate that CPO volume grew by +22.1% in 2018, supported by higher production from oil mills (+8% y/y) as previous acreage areas replanted matured. With no new maturities expected until 2020E, we do not see CPO sales volume exceeding 2018 level in 2019.
Management, in our recent discussion, guided to flattish to marginal CPO volume growth in 2019. However, we look for strong volume growth in 2020 and 2021, with a further 4,500ha of mature plantation expected to come on stream from Extension II each year, according to management.
Overall, we estimate 46,036MTs will be achieved in 2019 (+1.3% y/y), and volume growth to average 19.7% over 2020-2023E.
Higher selling prices will support revenue: Elsewhere, the narrowing glut in the global CPO market (c. 2,464kMT vs. 4,562kMT in 2018) potentially bodes well for CPO prices in 2019.
Given that domestic CPO price tracks global price, we expect that higher international market prices will pass through to domestic prices.
To buttress, while unfavourable weather conditions are expected to weigh on global supply, demand resurgence in India – which accounts for 15% of global consumption – is expected to lift global demand.
By implication, we project mean CPO price to be 5% higher in 2019 vs. 2018.
On the contrary, however, we hold the view that persisting global stock accumulation will continue to weigh on rubber prices, thus limiting the scope for export sales for OKOMUOIL. Overall, we project +6.9% y/y revenue growth in 2019E and 28.8% average over 2020-2021E.
Albeit with limited pass through to gross margin: We revise our gross margin estimate for 2019E 36 bps lower to 73.1%, reflecting continued CoGS pressure. The company reported 74% y/y and 26% y/y expansion in Q4-18 and 2018FY CoGS respectively.
Management attributed the CoGs pressure in 2018 to energy supply challenges (as only 41% vs. target of 60%, of its energy requirements was supplied by BEDC1, with generator set supplying the balance) which (are not under its control and) have not been addressed.
Higher finance charges to cap pre-tax profits: With the one-year moratorium on the N1.95 billion concessionary loan from the Bank of Industry (BOI) ending last year, we expect interest payment to commence in 2019, potentially increasing finance charges by 83% y/y to N537 million, on our estimate.
Estimates and valuation: The net impact of our adjustment translates to growth in PBT and PAT of 5.2% y/y and 2.3% y/y respectively in 2019, and average EPS growth of 24.6% in 2020-2021E.
Our new TP of N93.6/s implies total upside of 21% after incorporating expected dividend yield of 4.0%.
OKOMUOIL currently trades at P/E and EV/EBITDA of 8.89x and 8.06x, significant discounts to its Middle East and Africa peer averages of 16.6x and 18.6x. We upgrade our recommendation to BUY, from HOLD.
Economy
LCCI Raises Eyebrow Over N15.52trn Debt Servicing Plan in 2026 Budget
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) has noted that the N15.52 trillion allocation to debt servicing in the 2026 budget remains a significant fiscal burden.
LCCI Director-General, Mrs Chinyere Almona, said this on Tuesday in Lagos via a statement in reaction to the nation’s 2026 budget of N58.18 trillion, hinging the success of the 2026 budget on execution discipline, capital efficiency, and sustained support for productive sectors.
She noted that the budget was a timely shift from macroeconomic stabilisation to growth acceleration, reflecting growing confidence in the economy.
She lauded its emphasis on production-oriented spending, with capital expenditure of N26.08 trillion, representing 45 per cent of total outlays, and significantly outweighing non-debt recurrent expenditure of N15.25 trillion.
According to Mrs Almona, this composition supports infrastructure development, industrial expansion, and productivity growth.
However, she explained that the N15.52 trillion allocation to debt servicing underscored the need for stricter borrowing discipline, enhanced revenue efficiency, and expanded public-private partnerships to safeguard investments that promote growth.
She added that a further review of the 2026 budget revealed relatively optimistic macroeconomic assumptions that may pose fiscal risks.
“The oil price benchmark of $64.85 per barrel, although lower than the $75.00 benchmark in the 2025 budget, appears optimistic when compared with the 2025 average price of about $69.60 per barrel and current prices around $60 per barrel.
“This raises downside risks to oil revenue, especially since 35.6 per cent of the total projected revenue is expected to come from oil receipts.
“Similarly, the oil production benchmark of 1.84 million barrels per day is significantly higher than the current level of approximately 1.49 million barrels per day.
“Achieving this may be challenging without substantial improvements in security, infrastructure integrity, and sector investment,” she said.
Mrs Almona said the exchange rate assumption of N1,512 to the Dollar, compared with N1,500 in the 2025 budget and about N1,446 per Dollar at the end of November, suggests expectations of a mild depreciation.
She said while this may support Naira-denominated revenue, it also increases the cost of imports, debt servicing, and inflation management, with broader macroeconomic implications.
The LCCI DG added that the inflation projection of 16.5 per cent in 2026, up from 15.8 per cent in the 2025 budget and a current rate of about 14.45 per cent, appeared optimistic, particularly in a pre-election year.
She also expressed concern about Nigeria’s historically weak budget implementation capacity, likely to be further strained by the combined operation of multiple budget cycles within a single year.
Looking ahead, Mrs Almona identified agriculture and agro-processing, manufacturing, infrastructure, energy, and human capital development as key drivers of growth in 2026.
She said that unlocking these sectors would require decisive execution—scaling irrigation and agro-value chains, reducing power and logistics costs for manufacturers, and aligning education and skills development with private-sector needs.
The LCCI head stressed the need to resolve issues surrounding the Naira for crude, increase the supply of oil to local refineries to boost local refining capacity and conserve the substantial foreign exchange used for fuel imports.
“Overall, the 2026 Budget presents a credible opportunity for Nigeria to transition from recovery to expansion.
“Its success will depend less on the size of allocations and more on execution discipline, capital efficiency, and sustained support for productive sectors.
Economy
Customs Street Chalks up 0.12% on Santa Claus Rally
By Dipo Olowookere
The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited witnessed Santa Claus rally on Wednesday after it closed higher by 0.12 per cent.
Strong demand for Nigerian stocks lifted the All-Share Index (ASI) by 185.70 points during the pre-Christmas trading session to 153,539.83 points from 153,354.13 points.
In the same vein, the market capitalisation expanded at midweek by N118 billion to N97.890 trillion from the preceding day’s N97.772 trillion.
Investor sentiment on Customs Street remained bullish after closing with 36 appreciating equities and 22 depreciating equities, indicating a positive market breadth index.
Guinness Nigeria chalked up 9.98 per cent to trade at N318.60, Austin Laz improved by 9.97 per cent to N3.20, International Breweries expanded by 9.85 per cent to N14.50, Transcorp Hotels rose by 9.83 per cent to N170.90, and Aluminium Extrusion grew by 9.73 per cent to N16.35.
On the flip side, Legend Internet lost 9.26 per cent to close at N4.90, AXA Mansard shrank by 7.14 per cent to N13.00, Jaiz Bank declined by 5.45 per cent to N4.51, MTN Nigeria weakened by 5.21 per cent to N504.00, and NEM Insurance crashed by 4.74 per cent to N24.10.
Yesterday, a total of 1.8 billion shares valued at N30.1 billion exchanged hands in 19,372 deals versus the 677.4 billion shares worth N20.8 billion traded in 27,589 deals in the previous session, implying a slump in the number of deals by 29.78 per cent, and a surge in the trading volume and value by 165.72 per cent and 44.71 per cent apiece.
Abbey Mortgage Bank was the most active equity for the day after it sold 1.1 billion units worth N7.1 billion, Sterling Holdings traded 127.1 million units valued at N895.9 million, Custodian Investment exchanged 115.0 million units for N4.5 billion, First Holdco transacted 40.9 million units valued at N2.2 billion, and Access Holdings traded 38.2 million units worth N783.3 million.
Economy
Yuletide: Rite Foods Reiterates Commitment to Quality, Innovation
By Adedapo Adesanya
Nigerian food and beverage company, Rite Foods Limited, has extended warm Yuletide greetings to Nigerians as families and communities worldwide come together to celebrate the Christmas season and usher in a new year filled with hope and renewed possibilities.
In a statement, Rite Foods encouraged consumers to savour these special occasions with its wide range of quality brands, including the 13 variants of Bigi Carbonated Soft Drinks, premium Bigi Table Water, Sosa Fruit Drink in its refreshing flavours, the Fearless Energy Drink, and its tasty sausage rolls — all produced in a world-class facility with modern technology and global best practices.
Speaking on the season, the Managing Director of Rite Foods Limited, Mr Seleem Adegunwa, said the company remains deeply committed to enriching the lives of consumers beyond refreshment. According to him, the Yuletide period underscores the values of generosity, unity, and gratitude, which resonate strongly with the company’s philosophy.
“Christmas is a season that reminds us of the importance of giving, togetherness, and gratitude. At Rite Foods, we are thankful for the continued trust of Nigerians in our brands. This season strengthens our resolve to consistently deliver quality products that bring joy to everyday moments while contributing positively to society,” Mr Adegunwa stated.
He noted that the company’s steady progress in brand acceptance, operational excellence, and responsible business practices reflects a culture of continuous improvement, innovation, and responsiveness to consumer needs. These efforts, he said, have further strengthened Rite Foods’ position as a proudly Nigerian brand with growing relevance and impact across the country.
Mr Adegunwa reaffirmed that Rite Foods will continue to invest in research and development, efficient production processes, and initiatives that support communities, while maintaining quality standards across its product portfolio.
“As the year comes to a close, Rite Foods Limited wishes Nigerians a joyful Christmas celebration and a prosperous New Year filled with peace, progress, and shared success.”
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