Economy
Stanbic IBTC PMI for Private Sector Shows Rise in Business Confidence
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
The private sector in Nigeria sustained growth in January 2025, though lower than what was achieved in the preceding month.
The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) of Stanbic IBTC Bank for the month stood at 52.0 points compared with the 52.7 points recorded in December 2024.
It was observed that new orders and business activity maintained an upward trend amid a large improvement in business confidence as firms expanded employment, purchasing and inventories.
Although input costs and output prices continued to rise rapidly, respective rates of inflation were much slower than seen in December.
Business activity rose solidly in January, after having returned to growth in December. That said, the rate of expansion eased from the previous month. Activity increased across three of the four monitored sectors, the exception being wholesale and retail.
Signs of improving customer demand and a greater willingness among clients to commit to new projects supported the rise in output and also contributed to the growth of new orders. As was the case with activity, new business increased for the second month running, but at a softer pace than in December.
Companies were also much more optimistic regarding the future in January, with business expansion plans and marketing activities set to support output growth over the coming year. Although remaining relatively muted overall, the uplift in sentiment seen at the start of the year was the largest since the survey began just over 11 years ago.
There were signs of inflationary pressures softening in January. Although rates of increase in both input costs and output prices remained elevated, in both cases the rises were much weaker than seen in December. Overall input price inflation was the slowest since April 2024, while charges increased at the weakest pace in six months.
Efforts to satisfy customer requirements in a timely manner led companies to expand their staffing levels, purchasing activity and inventory holdings at the start of the year. In each case, the rises were the second in as many months. In particular, the accumulation of stocks of purchases was the most pronounced in just over a year and a half.
The attempts to get through projects quickly meant that firms were more successful in depleting backlogs of work, which decreased at a solid pace that was the most pronounced since June 2022. Finally, suppliers’ delivery times continued to shorten amid good arrangements with vendors and prompt payments.
“Nigeria’s private sector activity sustained its improvement in January 2025, albeit lower than levels seen in December 2024. We note an increase in both output (53.7 vs December 2024: 54.8) and new orders (52.6 vs December 2024: 53.2) although slightly weaker than that seen at the end of 2024, on account of improving customer demand and more willingness to commit to new projects.
“Given the rising new orders, companies took on additional workers in January – representing the second month running in which this has been the case.
“Elsewhere, input prices increased at a slower pace while the pace of increase in output prices is the slowest since July 2024.
Headline inflation averaged 33.18% y/y in 2024 from an average of 24.52% y/y in 2023 mostly driven by significant FX depreciation; renewed petrol price increases in line with full petrol price liberalization; structurally low food supplies exacerbated by high extreme weather conditions; and increased food demand, especially during the festive season.
“We expect a moderation in the inflation rate in 2025 although the pace of the moderation is only likely to be faster in late Q3:25. Notably, we expect headline inflation to average 30.5% y/y in 2025 and end the year at 27.1% y/y.
“In 2025, we project the non-oil sector to grow by 3.2% y/y from an estimated 3.0% y/y in 2024. Growth is likely to pick up across manufacturing and trade, while ICT and finance & insurance should continue to play a big role in economic performance.
“However, agriculture will likely still lag its long-term average amid lingering internal security challenges, high input costs, and extreme weather conditions. Within the manufacturing sector, cement, food and chemicals & pharmaceutical products are key sub-sectors that have been exceeding the manufacturing sector’s growth since Q4:22,” the Head of Equity Research West Africa at Stanbic IBTC Bank, Mr Muyiwa Oni, said.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Chairman of the Presidential Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms Committee, Mr Taiwo Oyedele, has said there are no discrepancies in the tax laws passed by the National Assembly and the gazetted versions made available to the public.
Last week, a member of the House of Representatives, Mr Abdussamad Dasuki, raised worries about the differences between its version and that gazetted by the presidency.
However, speaking on Channels Television’s Morning Brief on Monday, Mr Oyedele claimed what has been circulating in the media was fake.
“Before you can say there is a difference between what was gazetted and what was passed, we have what has not been gazetted. We don’t have what was passed,” he said.
“The official harmonised bills certified by the clerk, which the National Assembly sent to the President, we don’t have a copy to compare. Only the lawmakers can say authoritatively what we sent.
“It should be the House of Representatives or Senate version. It should be the harmonised version certified by the clerk. Even me, I cannot say that I have it. I only have what was presented to Mr President to sign.”
Mr Oyedele stated that he reached out to the House of Representatives Committee regarding a particular Section 41 (8), which states, “You have to pay a deposit of 20 per cent.”
He noted that the response given by the committee was that its members had not met on the issue.
“I know that particular provision is not in the final gazette, but it was in the draft gazette. Some people decided that they should write the report of the committee before the committee had met, and it had circulated everywhere.
“What is out there in the media did not come from the committee set up by the House of Representatives. I think we should allow them do the investigation,” Mr Oyedele added.
In June, President Bola Tinubu signed the four tax reform bills into law, marking what the government has described as the most significant overhaul of the country’s tax system in decades.
The tax reform laws, which faced stiff opposition from federal lawmakers from the northern part of the country before their passage, are scheduled to take effect on January 1, 2026.
The laws include the Nigeria Tax Act, the Nigeria Tax Administration Act, the Nigeria Revenue Service (Establishment) Act, and the Joint Revenue Board (Establishment) Act, all operating under a single authority, the Nigeria Revenue Service.
By Dipo Olowookere
A total of 55 equities appreciated last week on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited versus the 49 equities recorded a week earlier.
However, 33 stocks closed lower compared with 41 stocks in the previous week, while 55 shares remained unchanged versus 57 shares of the preceding week.
Leading the advancers’ log was Aluminium Extrusion, which gained 59.35 per cent to close at N12.35, Mecure Industries rose by 44.93 per cent to N55.00, First Holdco appreciated by 42.93 per cent to N44.95, Guinness Nigeria improved by 33.01 per cent to N289.70, and NPF Microfinance Bank grew by 20.65 per cent to N3.74.
On the flip side, Living Trust Mortgage Bank lost 11.38 per cent to settle at N3.35, Japaul declined by 10.53 per cent to N2.38, International Energy Insurance slipped by 9.92 per cent to N2.27, FTN Cocoa depreciated by 9.80 per cent to N4.42, and Stanbic IBTC went down by 9.33 per cent to N95.20.
The buying interest in the week raised the All-Share Index (ASI) and the market capitalisation by 1.76 per cent to 152,057.38 points and N96.937 trillion, respectively.
Similarly, all other indices finished higher with the exception of AFR Bank Value, and the energy indices, which fell by 1.38 per cent and 0.17 per cent apiece.
According to trading data, a total 9.849 billion shares worth N305.843 billion in 126,584 deals exchanged hands in the five-day trading week compared with the 4.373 billion shares valued at N97.783 billion traded in 110,736 deals a week earlier.
The financial services industry led the activity chart with 8.295 billion shares valued at N232.223 billion traded in 50,351 deals, contributing 84.22 per cent and 75.93 per cent to the total trading volume and value, respectively.
The healthcare space followed with 517.443 million shares worth N3.472 billion in 2,979 deals, and the consumer goods counter transacted 392.765 million shares worth N12.664 billion in 18,438 deals.
The trio of Ecobank, First Holdco, and Access Holdings accounted for 6.424 billion shares worth N204.629 billion in 11,362 deals, contributing 65.23 per cent and 66.91 per cent to the total trading volume and value, respectively.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Nigerian Export Promotion Council (NEPC) has assured beneficiaries of the $50 million Women Exporters in the Digital Economy (WEIDE) Fund to expect the first tranche of grants in the first quarter of 2026, following the completion of ongoing capacity-building and compliance processes.
The assurance was given during a Town Hall Meeting for WEIDE Fund beneficiaries held in Abuja over the weekend. The gathering provided an opportunity to review progress made since the launch of the initiative in August 2025.
The $50 million WEIDE Fund is a global initiative by the WTO and ITC to empower women-led businesses in developing countries, especially Nigeria, by providing training, finance, and market access for digital trade, helping them grow from small enterprises to global players through support like grants and mentorship, as seen in its launch phase benefiting 146 Nigerian women entrepreneurs.
Speaking at the event, the chief executive of NEPC, Mrs Nonye Ayeni, called on beneficiaries to maximize the opportunities provided by the programme, emphasizing the progress made and the milestones achieved since its launch.
Mrs Ayeni said the engagement was meant to review the programme’s achievements, identify areas for improvement, and strengthen support for the beneficiaries.
“So, it’s time for us to get together at the end of the year to see how far we’ve gone, how well we’ve done, and what we need to do to make it better and support them more effectively through the WEIDE Fund,” she said.
Mrs Ayeni highlighted the significant capacity-building activities conducted for the 146 selected women entrepreneurs, noting that top-tier coaches and trainers had been deployed immediately after the official launch by the Director General of the World Trade Organisation (WTO), Mrs Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala.
“These coaches are exceptional. They’ve trained our beneficiaries in financial literacy, bookkeeping, soft skills, leadership, succession planning, and digital tools so they can compete globally,” she said.
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