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Stock Analysis: Nestle Nigeria Q1-18 EPS Behind Expectation; SELL

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By Cordros Research

Nestle Nigeria Plc recently published Q1-18 result showing EPS grew by a marginal 3% y/y to NGN10.86, which is behind what the market expects for the period by 15%.

Compared to our estimate, the achieved EBIT was short by 1% while EPS missed by 25%, owing to significant variation (-161%) on the net finance cost line.

In-line revenue; 2018E estimate unchanged:

Q1-18 revenue grew by 10.3%, consistent with our 10% growth estimate for the period. Annualized, the achieved revenue is behind market expectation by only 2%. A 15% q/q revenue growth suggests volume recovered strongly from the slack in the Oct-Dec period of last year, although we estimate volume may have grown at low single digit relative to Q1-17. Food revenue grew by 7% y/y while Beverages –benefiting from a low base volume in our view – grew by a bigger 17% y/y.

Compared to Q4-17, both segments recorded 16% and 11% top-line growth respectively. Thus far from our routine checks, prices have been stable for most of NESTLE’s products compared with end-2017 levels, and although early – but we observed the gradually reducing on-the-shelve prices of consumer products across major outlets – reemphasizes our view on volume-led growth in 2018.

Our 10% revenue growth estimate for 2018E is unchanged.

Low Q1 gross margin; forming a trend?

Gross margin of 38.2% was achieved in Q1-18, slightly below the 39% we estimated for the period. Gross margin in Q1-17 was equally low (at least compared to Q4-16’s 45%) at 38.4%, before recovering to 42% average between Q2-Q4 of 2017.

We retain our 42% gross estimate for 2018E (vs. 41% in 2017FY), suggesting we expect recovery in subsequent quarters. Our estimate is in sync with the 41% gross margin the company had achieved historically before the bump to 45% in 2015FY. The major risks to our gross margin estimate are (1) lower selling price and (2) the increase we have observed thus far this year in the price of local maize. Although the risks are tempered by the (1) relatively lesser competition, given the strong loyalty that NESTLE’s brands enjoy, (2) stable and even improving currency exchange rate, and (3) softer prices of other raw material inputs such as sorghum, sugar, and dairy.

Q1-18 EBIT margin was lower by 8 bps y/y, driven majorly by the lower gross margin, and also because opex as a ratio of revenue only declined by a marginal 14 bps. We have 23% EBIT margin in our model for 2018E (the same 23% EBIT margin as in 2017FY), while noting that upside risks are almost the same as downsides.

Surprisingly high finance costs risk earnings growing below expectation:

The interest expense of NGN521 million (5% y/y and 158% q/q) and FX loss of NGN639 million (-38% y/y and 3118% q/q) reported in Q1-18 are both high in our view, considering NESTLE’s much reduced borrowings and the stable FX. We have consequently revised our finance cost estimate for 2018E higher by 105%, given that the amount reported in Q1 alone is more than half our prior estimate for the year. We should note that the expectation of a much lower finance cost carries significant weight both in our view, and the market’s of NESTLE’s earnings growth in 2018E. Gross loans as at end-march was NGN18.11 billion (vs. NGN48.7 billion in Mar, 2017 and NGN24.2 billion in Dec. 2017), the lowest since 2009FY.

Earnings estimate and valuation:

Compared to our previous estimate, we revise 2018E net profit lower by 6% to reflect the changes on the net finance cost line. On 2017FY results, our revised net profit estimate is higher by 37% (previously 46%). On our revised estimates, we have a DCF-based TP of NGN851.48 (previously NGN851.92) for NESTLE and maintain SELL rating. The stock is trading at forward (2018E) P/E and EV/EBITDA multiples of 27.4x and 18.3x respectively, at premium to Middle East and Africa peer averages of 18.7x and 12.4x.

Modupe Gbadeyanka is a fast-rising journalist with Business Post Nigeria. Her passion for journalism is amazing. She is willing to learn more with a view to becoming one of the best pen-pushers in Nigeria. Her role models are the duo of CNN's Richard Quest and Christiane Amanpour.

Economy

Dangote Refinery Denies Importing Petrol, Diesel into Nigeria

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By Modupe Gbadeyanka

Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals has described reports making the rounds that it was importing finished petroleum products like premium motor spirit (PMS), otherwise known as petrol, diesel, and others into Nigeria as false and misleading.

In a chat with newsmen on Wednesday, the company clarified that what it brought into the country were merely intermediate or semi‑processed materials, which it emphasized is a standard practice within the global refining industry.

Intermediate materials—such as naphtha, straight‑run gas oil, vacuum gas oil (VGO), reformate, alkylate and isomerate—serve as feedstock for additional refining into finished fuels like petrol and diesel, as well as petrochemicals.

The chief executive of the facility, Mr David Bird, told journalists in Lagos that as a state‑of‑the‑art and large‑scale merchant refinery, DPRP refines crude oil and processes intermediate feedstocks into premium petroleum products and petrochemicals that meet the highest international standards, noting that this practice does not amount to importing finished petroleum products.

Mr Bird highlighted that Dangote Refinery operates using a European and Asian merchant refinery model, which integrates advanced refining, blending and trading systems designed to meet modern quality and environmental benchmarks.

“DPRP produces high‑quality fuels aligned with international environmental and health standards. Our gasoline is lead‑free and MMT‑free with 50 parts per million sulphur, while our diesel meets ultra‑low sulphur specifications. These standards help reduce emissions, protect engines, and safeguard public health,” the chief executive stated.

Mr Bird reaffirmed that the Dangote Refinery supplies only fully refined, market‑ready products, adding that semi‑finished fuels are unsuitable for vehicles and are therefore not released into the Nigerian market. Samples of both intermediate feedstocks and fully refined products were displayed to journalists during the briefing.

He further noted that the refinery was established to end years of exposure to substandard fuel in Nigeria by providing products that meet stringent global standards, adding that DPRP’s products are now exported to international markets, highlighting their quality and competitiveness.

The refinery chief stressed the company’s commitment to transparency in its operations and engagements with regulators, urging the media to help properly educate the public on the clear distinction between intermediate products and finished fuel.

“It is unfortunate that some individuals are deliberately spreading misleading narratives about a refinery that has transformed Nigeria and the West African region from a dumping ground for substandard fuels into a hub for high‑quality products,” he said, adding that the refinery’s flexible design allows it to process a diverse mix of crude oils and intermediate feedstocks into premium finished fuels.

Mr Bird assured Nigerians of sustained product availability, noting that the refinery has contributed significantly to easing fuel scarcity, stabilising the naira, and reducing pressure on foreign exchange.

On his part, the Chief Brand and Communications Officer of Dangote Industries Limited, Mr Anthony Chiejina, urged journalists to be precise in their choice of terminology, warning that inaccurate reporting could misinform the public and create unnecessary panic.

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Economy

Nigeria to Overtake Algeria as Africa’s Third-Largest Economy in 2026—IMF

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Nigeria Economy challenges

By Adedapo Adesanya

Nigeria is projected to move from being the become the third-largest economy in Africa in 2026 from the fourth position it clinched last year, according to data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

In the IMF’s World Economic Outlook (October 2025 edition), accessed via its datamapper, it was indicated that Nigeria’s gross domestic product (GDP) at current prices stood at about $285 billion in 2025, placing it behind South Africa, Egypt and Algeria.

South Africa topped the African ranking with a GDP of about $426 billion, followed by Egypt at $349 billion, and Algeria ranked third with $288 billion.

However, the IMF forecasts that Nigeria will overtake Algeria in 2026 as economic output rebounds, driven by higher oil production, improved foreign exchange liquidity and the impact of ongoing economic reforms.

According to the IMF’s projections, Nigeria’s GDP is expected to rise to $334 billion, putting it ahead of Algeria ($284 billion) and making it Africa’s third-largest economy, behind South Africa ($443 billion) and Egypt ($399 billion).

The lender’s outlook reflects expectations that recent reforms, including petrol subsidy removal, exchange-rate liberalisation and fiscal adjustments, will support medium-term growth, despite short-term inflationary pressures.

Africa’s largest economy’s position has shifted in recent years amid currency devaluations, rebasing exercises and macroeconomic headwinds across major economies on the continent. Nigeria in 2024 lost its status as Africa’s largest economy and dropped to fourth place after a series of Naira devaluations and wider reforms.

However, these appear to have brought about macro reliefs in the near term. On January 19, the IMF reviewed its forecast for Nigeria’s economic growth rate upward to 4.4 per cent in 2026. The Bretton Woods organisation revised the rate upward from its initial projection of 4.2 percent.

Prior to that, on January 13, the World Bank also increased its projection for Nigeria’s economic growth rate for 2026 to 4.4 percent from the 3.7 percent forecast in June 2025.

The federal government expects the Nigerian economy to grow by 4.68 per cent in 2026, supported by easing inflation, improved foreign exchange stability and continued fiscal reforms.

According to the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr Wale Edun, the country’s inflation, which peaked above 33 per cent in 2024, declined to 15.15 per cent by December 2025, adding that foreign exchange volatility has eased, with the Naira trading below N1,500 to the Dollar, while external reserves rose to $46 billion.

He added that GDP growth averaged 3.78 per cent by the third quarter of 2025, with 27 sectors recording expansion.

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Economy

Lafarge to Expand Sagamu, Ashaka Cement Plants to 5.5MT Per Annum

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By Aduragbemi Omiyale

One of the leading cement firms, Lafarge Africa Plc, has confirmed plans to expand its plants in Gombe and Ogun States to about 5.5 million metric tonnes per annum.

In a notice to the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) on Wednesday, the company said it was strengthening local cement production with the expansion of its Sagamu Cement Plant in Ogun State and Ashaka Cement Plant in Gombe State.

It noted that the upon completion of the expansion projects, the production capacity of the Ashaka Cement in Gombe State would rise to 2 MT per annum, while the Sagamu facility would increase to 3.5 MT per annum.

The two new plants, the statement disclosed, would be dry plants with preheater kilns, vertical raw mills and roller presses for cement mills to make them energy efficient.

The disclosure signed by the company secretary, Adewunmi Alode, further revealed that the plants are expected to improve product availability and enhance Lafarge Africa’s ability to serve customers efficiently across key markets.

This expansion is coming after the announcement made last year that Huaxin Building Materials Group’s had acquired 83.81 per cent of Lafarge Africa and demonstrates their commitment to Nigeria’s infrastructural development.

The chief executive of Lafarge Africa, Mr Lolu Alade-Akinyemi, stated that the expansion projects reflect the company’s long-term confidence in Nigeria’s growth potential and are aimed at supporting Nigeria’s infrastructure and construction needs.

He explained that the project goes beyond capacity growth to deliver operational and sustainability benefits but also supports value creation for our customers and shareholders while contributing to economic activity and job creation across our host communities and the wider construction ecosystem.

“The expansion of our plants is a strategic investment that reinforces Lafarge Africa’s role in supporting national development. By increasing capacity at our flagship plants, we are strengthening our supply chain, improving our responsiveness to market demand, and positioning the business to better support critical sectors such as housing, commercial construction, and infrastructure.

“It enables us to integrate modern production technologies that enhance efficiency, reliability, and environmental performance, in line with our commitment to responsible operations,” Mr Alade-Akinyemi, stated.

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