Economy
Stock Analysis: Nestle Nigeria Q1-18 EPS Behind Expectation; SELL

By Cordros Research
Nestle Nigeria Plc recently published Q1-18 result showing EPS grew by a marginal 3% y/y to NGN10.86, which is behind what the market expects for the period by 15%.
Compared to our estimate, the achieved EBIT was short by 1% while EPS missed by 25%, owing to significant variation (-161%) on the net finance cost line.
In-line revenue; 2018E estimate unchanged:
Q1-18 revenue grew by 10.3%, consistent with our 10% growth estimate for the period. Annualized, the achieved revenue is behind market expectation by only 2%. A 15% q/q revenue growth suggests volume recovered strongly from the slack in the Oct-Dec period of last year, although we estimate volume may have grown at low single digit relative to Q1-17. Food revenue grew by 7% y/y while Beverages –benefiting from a low base volume in our view – grew by a bigger 17% y/y.
Compared to Q4-17, both segments recorded 16% and 11% top-line growth respectively. Thus far from our routine checks, prices have been stable for most of NESTLE’s products compared with end-2017 levels, and although early – but we observed the gradually reducing on-the-shelve prices of consumer products across major outlets – reemphasizes our view on volume-led growth in 2018.
Our 10% revenue growth estimate for 2018E is unchanged.
Low Q1 gross margin; forming a trend?
Gross margin of 38.2% was achieved in Q1-18, slightly below the 39% we estimated for the period. Gross margin in Q1-17 was equally low (at least compared to Q4-16’s 45%) at 38.4%, before recovering to 42% average between Q2-Q4 of 2017.
We retain our 42% gross estimate for 2018E (vs. 41% in 2017FY), suggesting we expect recovery in subsequent quarters. Our estimate is in sync with the 41% gross margin the company had achieved historically before the bump to 45% in 2015FY. The major risks to our gross margin estimate are (1) lower selling price and (2) the increase we have observed thus far this year in the price of local maize. Although the risks are tempered by the (1) relatively lesser competition, given the strong loyalty that NESTLE’s brands enjoy, (2) stable and even improving currency exchange rate, and (3) softer prices of other raw material inputs such as sorghum, sugar, and dairy.
Q1-18 EBIT margin was lower by 8 bps y/y, driven majorly by the lower gross margin, and also because opex as a ratio of revenue only declined by a marginal 14 bps. We have 23% EBIT margin in our model for 2018E (the same 23% EBIT margin as in 2017FY), while noting that upside risks are almost the same as downsides.
Surprisingly high finance costs risk earnings growing below expectation:
The interest expense of NGN521 million (5% y/y and 158% q/q) and FX loss of NGN639 million (-38% y/y and 3118% q/q) reported in Q1-18 are both high in our view, considering NESTLE’s much reduced borrowings and the stable FX. We have consequently revised our finance cost estimate for 2018E higher by 105%, given that the amount reported in Q1 alone is more than half our prior estimate for the year. We should note that the expectation of a much lower finance cost carries significant weight both in our view, and the market’s of NESTLE’s earnings growth in 2018E. Gross loans as at end-march was NGN18.11 billion (vs. NGN48.7 billion in Mar, 2017 and NGN24.2 billion in Dec. 2017), the lowest since 2009FY.
Earnings estimate and valuation:
Compared to our previous estimate, we revise 2018E net profit lower by 6% to reflect the changes on the net finance cost line. On 2017FY results, our revised net profit estimate is higher by 37% (previously 46%). On our revised estimates, we have a DCF-based TP of NGN851.48 (previously NGN851.92) for NESTLE and maintain SELL rating. The stock is trading at forward (2018E) P/E and EV/EBITDA multiples of 27.4x and 18.3x respectively, at premium to Middle East and Africa peer averages of 18.7x and 12.4x.
Economy
IMF Charges Nigeria, Others to Deepen Fiscal Buffers Amid Headwinds

By Adedapo Adesanya
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has called on Nigeria and other African countries to deepen fiscal buffers, adopt context-specific monetary policies, and advance regional economic cooperation in order to cushion the effect of global headwinds and unlock long-term inclusive growth.
The Managing Director of the Bretton Wood institution, Ms Kristalina Georgieva, said this during the launch of IMF’s latest Global Policy Agenda Report titled Anchoring Stability and Promoting Balanced Growth at the ongoing World Bank/IMF Spring Meetings in Washington.
She highlighted the continent’s mixed growth outlook and called for a renewed commitment to structural reforms.
Speaking further on fiscal reforms, she said, “Don’t hide behind excuses, and say we can’t go for more tax because, you can. There is a lot that can be done to broaden the tax base, and a lot that can be done to reduce tax evasion and tax avoidance, using technology, as some countries are doing, to chase the tax dollars, when there is the foundation for that, is a very good thing to do.”
Ms Georgieva pointed out that while Africa remained home to some of the world’s fastest-growing economies, a significant number of low-income and fragile states were increasingly falling behind, especially in the wake of slowing global growth and rising geopolitical risks.
“We have seen over the last years, the African continent having some of the fastest growing economies, but we also have seen low-income countries primarily and among the fragile conflict-affected countries falling further behind, and now this, this is a shock for the continent,” she added.
The IMF chief stated that while the direct effect of trade tariffs on most African countries was minimal, the indirect consequences, particularly, from a slowdown in global growth posed more serious challenges, especially for oil-exporting countries, like Nigeria.
“The direct impact of tariffs on most of Africa, not on all of Africa, but on most of Africa, is relatively small, but the indirect impact is quite significant.
“Slowing global growth means that, all other things being equal, they would see a downgrade. And actually, we have downgraded the growth prospects for the continent, for the oil producers, like Nigeria, falling oil prices create additional pressure on their budgets. On the other hand, for the oil importers, this is a breath of fresh air.
“In other words, different countries face different challenges. If I were to come up with some basic recommendations that apply to Africa, I would say they apply to Nigeria, Egypt, Ghana, and they apply to Cote d’Ivoire.
“First, continue on the path of strengthening your buffer levels. There is still a lot that can be done on the fiscal side, to have strength and to have the buffers for a moment of shock, and don’t use any excuses around,” Ms Georgieva noted.
The IMF managing director urged Nigeria and other governments in Africa to do more to expand their tax base and tackle leakages through digital tools. She warned against copycat monetary policies, urging central banks to respond based on country-specific inflation pressures rather than mimic regional peers.
“On the monetary policy side, we are no more in a place where you can look at the book of the central bank governor of the neighbouring country and say, ‘Oh, they’re doing this, let’s try out the same,’ because you have to really assess domestically, what your inflationary pressures are and do the right thing for your country,” she said.
Ms Georgieva also made a passionate call for Africa to rebrand its global image, stating that corruption and conflict in one country cast a long shadow over the entire region.
“But above all, make it so that the image of the whole continent changes, because now everybody suffers from wrongdoing, from corruption or conflict in one country, it throws a shadow on the rest of the continent. And finally, like Asia, there is a need to deepen inter-regional trade and cooperation, remove the obstacles.”
She also underscored the importance of boosting intra-African trade, comparing the continent’s potential to that of Asia and welcomed World Bank efforts to ease infrastructure barriers to trade.
She added: “Sometimes they are infrastructure obstacles. The World Bank is working on reducing the infrastructure obstacles to broaden trade. Africa has so much to offer the world. They have the minerals, better resources, and a young population. I think that a more unified, more collaborative continent can go a long, long way to be an economic powerhouse.”
Economy
VFD Group Bounces Back to Profitability With N11.2bn PBT in 2024

By Adedapo Adesanya
Proprietary Investment firm, VFD Group Plc, recorded a 1,202 per cent rise in its Profit Before Tax (PBT) in the 2024 financial year, closing December 31, 2024, at N11.2 billion.
This marked a turnaround after VFD Group reported a pre-tax loss of N1 billion in 2023 due to macroeconomic headwinds which affected a lot of businesses locally and globally.
Net investment income surged by 95 per cent to N59.0 billion despite a spike in investment expenses to N15.5 billion from N7.4 billion in 2023.
Other metrics showed that net revenue increased by 90 per cent to N71.0 billion, while operating profit grew by an impressive 104 per cent to N48.8 billion.
The firm, listed on the main board of the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited, noted that the development showcased exceptional growth.
“The journey to this milestone was paved with strategic initiatives and a relentless pursuit of innovation,” it added in a statement on Friday.
The company holds investments in over 20 portfolio businesses spanning key sectors such as financial services, banking, market infrastructure, capital markets, technology, real estate, and hospitality.
As of April 22, 2025, VFD Group’s market capitalisation surged by 116 per cent to hit N121.6 billion from N56.2 billion year to date.
“These outstanding results reflect the success of our team’s efforts. As VFD Group looks to the future, it remains committed to delivering exceptional value to its customers and stakeholders,” the statement added.
Economy
Nigeria Targets $90bn from Textile, Livestock by 2035

By Modupe Gbadeyanka
About $90 billion is expected to be generated in economic value by 2035 from new strategies developed by the Nigerian government for agribusiness expansion and livestock transformation.
To achieve this, the National Economic Council (NEC) chaired by the Vice President, Mr Kashim Shettima, has approved the establishment of a Cotton, Textile and Garment Development Board.
At the NEC meeting on Thursday in Abuja, steps to reposition Nigeria’s economy and tackle insecurity at its roots were discussed by the participants, which included the governors of the 36 states of the federation.
The new regulatory body for the cotton, textile and garment sector of Nigeria will have governors representing the six geo-political zones, with Ministers of Agriculture and Food Security, Budget and Economic Planning, and Industry, Trade and Investment as members.
It would be domiciled in the presidency, with representation of the relevant public sector stakeholders, and funded from the Textile Import Levy being collected by the Nigeria Customs Service (NCS), though it would be private sector-driven.
“Nigeria is a nation where cotton can thrive in 34 states. Yet our production level remains a fraction of our potential.
“We currently produce only 13,000 metric tons, while we continue to import textiles worth hundreds of millions of dollars. This is not just an economic imbalance. It is an invitation to act,” he added.
“Our goal is not just regulation. It is a revival. This is our opportunity to re-industrialise, to empower communities, and to restore pride in local production,” the VP stated.
Also at the meeting yesterday, the council approved the establishment of the Green Imperative Project (GIP), with a national office in Abuja and regional offices across the six geopolitical zones.
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