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UAE OPEC Exit Presents Operational, Financial Test for Nigeria’s Oil Target

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Brent crude oil price

A new report by EBC Financial Group has projected that the planned exit of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) from the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on Friday, May 1, 2026 (tomorrow), could post a threat to Nigeria, a member of the oil cartel.

In a note made available to Business Post, it said the immediate challenge for Nigeria, Africa’s largest oil producer, involves managing crude volatility and ensuring production is translated into loaded cargoes, refinery feedstock, settled USD receipts, and controlled fuel-cost pass-through.

It was emphasised that the decision of the UAE does not automatically strengthen the oil position for Nigeria, but shifts attention from crude-price exposure to operational execution.

Nigeria’s 2026 fiscal framework, as outlined by President Bola Tinubu, sets a crude oil benchmark price of 64.85 per barrel, a production target of 1.84 million barrels per day, and an exchange rate assumption of N1,400 per Dollar.

The 2026 Appropriation Bill of N68.32 trillion, approved by Mr Tinubu about two weeks ago, provides for aggregate expenditure of N68.32 trillion. Reduced oil receipts may limit USD inflows into the financial system, affecting the ability of banks, importers, and manufacturers to settle overseas invoices. This scenario could constrain foreign exchange (FX) liquidity, delay import settlements, prolong government and contractor payment cycles, and result in broader pricing buffers for imported inputs.

Oil production figures remain variable. OPEC’s April Monthly Oil Market Report recorded Nigeria’s crude production at 1.38 million barrels per day in March, up from 1.31 million barrels per day in February, yet below the quota of 1.5 million barrels per day from OPEC.

The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) later reported that daily crude production had reached 1.84 million barrels per day, after a February reduction attributed to incidents at strategic facilities and maintenance activities. The focus is on whether Nigeria can sustain elevated output through all stages—pipelines, terminals, cargo loading, export payment, and FX conversion.

“Nigeria has demonstrated the distinction between setting oil targets and delivering oil revenue. Recent production figures reflect progress; however, market participants focus on consistency rather than isolated results.

“The key consideration is whether volatility in crude markets can be translated into loaded cargoes, settled USD receipts, and sufficient FX liquidity to reduce pricing buffers on import invoices,” the Senior Market Analyst at EBC Financial Group, Mr David Precious, noted.

First Test: Ensure Effective Dispatch of Export Barrels

The commercial challenge extends beyond production figures. Crude oil must be evacuated from production fields, metered at custody-transfer points, scheduled through export terminals, documented for lifting, loaded onto vessels, and paid for before generating usable USD proceeds for reserves, public revenue, and private-sector FX demand. A barrel measured at the wellhead does not support the Nigerian naira (NGN) market until the export process is finalised and proceeds enter the financial system.

Disruptions in pipelines, terminals, vessel nominations, or payment settlements widen the gap between production and accessible USD proceeds. Pipeline interruptions may delay evacuation, terminal congestion can extend vessel waiting times, nomination changes may shift loading windows, and payment delays can slow the conversion of oil sales into available FX. Such delays may increase working-capital requirements for importers, slow public cash disbursement, expand supplier pricing buffers, and elevate raw-material costs for manufacturers reliant on FX for overseas payments.

Second Test: Secure Domestic Refinery Feedstock Before Product Prices Reprice

EBC highlights that Nigeria’s next priority is domestic crude allocation. NUPRC has identified Domestic Crude Oil Supply Obligation (DCSO) issues, including contracts that failed to reflect legal provisions, reluctance by some producers to allocate production to domestic refineries, changes in vessel nomination, delayed vessel arrival and frequent lay-can changes for crude allocated to domestic refineries. These are not administrative issues alone. Delayed feedstock disrupts refinery run planning, increases storage exposure, creates demurrage risk, delays product release from depots and raises trucking costs.

DCSO enforcement becomes more important if global crude volatility raises refined-product prices. Local refineries require predictable crude supply schedules and workable payment terms to reduce dependence on import-parity pricing. Irregular feedstock supply exposes petrol, diesel and aviation fuel to higher shipping, insurance, depot and FX conversion costs. Those costs move into factory generator diesel, trucking rates for food and cement, jet fuel for airlines, inventory finance for wholesalers and operating margins for retailers.

Third Test: Turn Atlantic Basin Geography into Reliable Cargo Supply

The International Energy Agency (IEA) said early-April shipments of crude, natural gas liquids and refined products through the Strait of Hormuz averaged around 3.8 million barrels per day, compared with more than 20 million barrels per day in February before the crisis. The IEA also said alternative-route exports had increased to 7.2 million barrels per day from less than 4 million barrels per day before the war, while global crude and refined-product markets remained under pressure.

Nigeria’s Atlantic Basin location gives buyers an alternative to Gulf-linked supply routes, but that advantage only has commercial value if cargoes load reliably. When Nigerian cargoes are loaded on schedule, buyers can plan refinery intake, banks can process trade finance with fewer timing buffers, and exporters can convert crude sales into USD more quickly. When cargoes are delayed, vessel waiting time, financing cost and supply-chain uncertainty rise, reducing any buyer-confidence advantage Nigeria could gain from offering non-Gulf cargoes during a disrupted physical market.

Fourth Test: Separate Export Gains from Domestic Cost Pass-Through

Higher crude prices can increase Nigeria’s export revenue, but the benefit does not reach the economy as quickly as fuel-cost increases. Export receipts support fiscal revenue and USD liquidity only after production, lifting, invoicing and payment. Refined-product costs can be re-priced more quickly through depots, trucking contracts and supplier invoices. That timing gap can raise diesel, petrol, aviation fuel, lubricants, plastics, packaging, and imported manufacturing input costs before higher public revenue reaches the broader economy.

EBC analysts noted that the commercial impact shows up in operating margins. Manufacturers face higher generator diesel and imported raw material costs. Logistics firms face higher truck-fuelling costs. Airlines face higher aviation-fuel costs. Wholesalers face higher inventory-finance requirements. Retailers face pressure to pass higher landed costs to consumers. This is why Nigeria’s oil upside depends not only on crude prices, but on how quickly export proceeds become usable USD and how predictably domestic fuel supply reaches depots.

What Comes Next for Nigeria

The first external checkpoint is the May 3, 2026, OPEC+ meeting. OPEC said eight participating countries agreed to implement a 206,000-barrel-per-day production adjustment in May, retain flexibility to increase, pause or reverse the phase-out of voluntary adjustments, and meet monthly to review market conditions, conformity and compensation. For Nigeria, the meeting will show whether producer coordination remains firm after the UAE’s exit and how participating countries position future output adjustments.

Nigeria’s internal benchmarks are now measurable. Production needs to stay close to the 1.84 million-barrel fiscal reference. Export terminals need to show timely cargo loading. DCSO enforcement needs to reduce lay-can changes and refinery feedstock uncertainty. FX liquidity needs to show that export receipts are reaching importers and manufacturers quickly enough to reduce pricing buffers across fuel, food distribution, factory power and consumer goods.

“The UAE is moving towards greater production flexibility, but Nigeria’s issue is different,” Mr Precious added. “Nigeria has to protect the chain from production to payment. If a cargo misses its loading window, refinery feedstock planning changes. If refinery planning changes, depot release timing changes. If depot timing changes, trucking, factory power and consumer prices absorb the cost before higher export revenue reaches the broader economy.”

The UAE’s exit does not determine Nigeria’s oil outcome. It highlights the execution chain Nigeria must now protect: production, evacuation, lifting, payment, FX conversion, refinery feedstock and final fuel pricing. Nigeria’s commercial benefit will depend on converting capacity into reliable cargoes and reliable cargoes into usable cash.

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Economy

Customs Steps up Push on Green Tax Awareness Ahead of July 1 Launch

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Green Tax Surcharge

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Nigeria Customs Service (NCS) has intensified its nationwide sensitisation campaign on the implementation of the Green Tax Surcharge and related fiscal adjustments ahead of the policy’s commencement on July 1, 2026.

The service disclosed this in a statement published on its official X handle on Monday, saying the initiative is aimed at promoting environmental sustainability, reducing carbon emissions and encouraging the importation of cleaner vehicles into the country in line with global environmental standards.

According to the statement, the latest sensitisation programme was held at the Apapa Area Command on Friday, June 26, 2026, under the theme, “Implementation of the Green Tax Surcharge and Related Fiscal Adjustments.”

The event brought together customs officers, licensed customs agents, freight forwarders, importers and other key stakeholders to familiarise them with the new policy ahead of its implementation.

Representing the Comptroller-General of Customs, Mr Adewale Adeniyi, the Zonal Coordinator for Zone A, Mr Mohammed Babadende, said the exercise was organised to ensure stakeholders fully understand the policy and its implementation framework before it takes effect.

“This sensitisation is designed to ensure that every stakeholder clearly understands the policy before implementation. Our objective is to eliminate uncertainty, promote voluntary compliance and guarantee uniform application of the Green Tax Surcharge across all commands,” Mr Adeniyi said.

He stressed that effective stakeholder engagement would help ensure a seamless rollout of the policy while improving compliance across the country’s ports and border stations.

Delivering a technical presentation, the Comptroller in charge of Tariff, System Audit and Coordination, Mr Murtala Muazu, explained that the Green Tax Surcharge differs from conventional fiscal measures and would therefore require a separate assessment process.

Mr Muazu disclosed that the agency has introduced a simplified implementation mechanism through the Harmonised System (HS) Code declaration platform to facilitate accurate assessment and ease compliance by importers and clearing agents.

He further revealed that the federal government has simultaneously reviewed existing import charges on vehicles to cushion the effect of the new environmental levy.

According to him, import levies on vehicles have been reduced from 20 per cent to 10 per cent, while duties on used vehicles have been cut from 15 per cent to five per cent.

The customs said the reductions are intended to offset the impact of the Green Tax Surcharge while supporting legitimate trade and ensuring businesses are not unduly burdened by the new policy.

Area Controllers who attended the sensitisation programme urged importers, licensed customs agents and members of the public to support the initiative, noting that the reduction in import levies would lower the cost of doing business, facilitate legitimate trade and ultimately contribute to reducing transportation costs across the country.

Stakeholders at the event welcomed the initiative but called for sustained public awareness campaigns to ensure broader understanding, minimise confusion and encourage voluntary compliance as the rollout date approaches.

The Green Tax Surcharge is scheduled to take effect on July 1, 2026, as part of the federal government’s broader efforts to promote environmentally friendly transportation and align Nigeria’s import policies with global climate and sustainability objectives.

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Economy

Access Holdings, Fidelity Bank, Chams Emerge Busiest Equities

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Access Holdings

By Dipo Olowookere

The three busiest equities on the floor of the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited last week were Access Holdings, Fidelity Bank, and Chams Holdco.

The trio accounted for 20.90 per cent and 5.69 per cent of the total trading volume and value, respectively, after trading 485.749 million units worth N7.656 billion in 17,843 deals.

In the week, investors transacted 2.324 billion shares valued at N134.486 billion in 249,328 deals versus the 3.075 billion shares worth N254.614 billion executed in 287,157 deals in the previous week.

The financial services space led the activity chart with 1.523 billion stocks sold for N47.542 billion in 105,230 deals, contributing 65.53 per cent and 35.35 per cent to the total trading volume and value, respectively. The ICT industry exchanged 198.821 million shares worth N32.622 billion in 29,905 deals, and the consumer goods sector posted a turnover of 151.635 million shares worth N10.933 billion in 23,951 deals.

In the five-day trading week, 22 equities appreciated versus 11 equities a week earlier, 57 equities depreciated versus 78 equities of the previous week, and 67 equities remained unchanged versus 57 equities in the preceding week.

McNichols gained 26.47 per cent to trade at N8.60, International Energy Insurance appreciated by 14.43 per cent to N5.79, GTCO expanded by 10.69 per cent to N127.90, First Holdco jumped by 10.00 per cent to N55.00, and Airtel Africa also climbed 10.00 per cent to settle at N4,358.80.

On the flip side, Trans-Nationwide Express declined by 26.79 per cent to N3.28, Deap Capital slipped by 23.31 per cent to N3.75, Abbey Mortgage Bank lost 20.30 per cent to trade at N8.05, Aradel Holdings contracted by 19.00 per cent to N1,417.50, and Regency Assurance dropped 18.56 per cent to close at 79 Kobo.

The All-Share Index (ASI) and the market capitalisation, which measures the performance level of Customs Street, depreciated last week by 1.65 per cent and 1.60 per cent each to 232,049.02 points and N148.905 trillion, respectively.

Similarly, all other indices finished lower except the CG, banking, AFR Bank Value, AFR Div Yield and MERI Value indices, which grew by 2.40 per cent, 3.51 per cent, 3.28 per cent, 9.93 per cent and 0.56 per cent, respectively.

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Economy

Proposed Import Ban Won’t Revive Nigeria’s Textile Industry—CPPE

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textile ban

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) has cautioned against the Senate’s resolution seeking to ban the importation of textile fabrics, warning that such a move could be counterintuitive as it would undermine key industries, threaten millions of jobs and fail to revive Nigeria’s struggling textile sector.

According to the chief executive of the think-tank, Mr Muda Yusuf, while the objective of revitalising the textile industry was commendable, an outright import prohibition would likely create more economic challenges than solutions.

The Senate had urged the federal government to implement an import ban for an initial period of five years. The motion, sponsored by Senator Sunday Katung, is to create a protected window for domestic cotton farmers and local textile mills to scale up production.

Mr Yusuf noted that the import ban wasn’t the major driving force behind the country’s ailing textile sector, adding that it was driven mainly by structural constraints such as high energy costs, poor infrastructure, expensive credit and obsolete technology.

Other factors, he said, driving the decline of the sector included logistics bottlenecks, smuggling and policy inconsistency, rather than import competition.

According to him, restricting textile imports will disrupt production across the country’s garment, fashion, tailoring, furniture and interior design industries, which depend heavily on imported fabrics as production inputs.

He said that Nigeria’s fashion, garment-making and tailoring industry, valued at about N10 trillion, supported an estimated 10 million livelihoods and represented one of the country’s most vibrant creative economy sectors.

He further stated that the sector generates significant domestic value addition through design, tailoring, branding, embroidery, merchandising and retailing, often exceeding the value of the imported textile inputs.

“Restricting textile imports would increase production costs, reduce consumer choice and threaten thousands of micro, small and medium enterprises engaged in fashion, tailoring and garment manufacturing,” he said.

Mr Yusuf added that textile fabrics were also critical inputs for the furniture and interior design industry, valued at about N7 trillion, warning that supply disruptions would weaken the competitiveness of manufacturers.

He further noted that imported textile fabrics already attracted a combined Import Duty and Import Adjustment Tax of between 35 per cent and 45 per cent, yet the existing tariff protection had not restored the competitiveness of local textile manufacturers.

“The core problem lies in production economics rather than import penetration. An import ban addresses the symptom while leaving the underlying causes unresolved,” he said.

Mr Yusuf also maintained that local textile manufacturers currently lacked the capacity to meet the quantity, quality and diversity of fabrics required by the country’s fashion, garment, furniture and interior design industries.

He warned that an outright import ban could therefore create supply shortages and negatively affect downstream sectors that generated significantly more employment than textile manufacturing itself.

The CPPE boss advocated a comprehensive value-chain strategy to revive the textile industry and called for the restoration of domestic cotton production through improved security, mechanisation, better seedlings, extension services and guaranteed off-take arrangements.

He also stressed the need for affordable long-term financing, access to modern technology, a reliable energy supply and a more competitive operating environment for manufacturers.

Among other recommendations, Yusuf urged the government to prioritise locally produced textiles and garments for uniforms used by the military, paramilitary agencies, schools and other public institutions.

He also recommended the establishment of a Textile Competitiveness Fund financed from textile-related import tax revenues to support technology upgrades and industry modernisation.

Other measures proposed include strengthening border enforcement to curb smuggling and implementing reforms aimed at reducing energy and financing costs while improving industrial infrastructure.

Mr Yusuf stressed that sustainable revival of Nigeria’s textile industry would depend on improving competitiveness rather than imposing additional import restrictions.

He warned that a blanket import ban could encourage smuggling, reduce customs revenue and weaken a broader value chain that contributed substantially to employment and economic growth.

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