Rahma Ahmed
By Ahmed Rahma
The Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of Flame Academy & Consulting Limited, Mr Orji Chigozie Udemezue, has advised the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to apply contractionary measures to curb inflation in the country.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), inflation in Nigeria rose in December 2020 by 15.75 per cent and for Mr Udemezue, this is very high.
To control this, the economist has told the central bank to reduce government spending by stabilising price, which according to him, is the main duty of central banks across the globe.
Mr Udemezue, while speaking on Channels Business Morning, added that when CBN raises rate, there will be so much rush for money market instruments as banks would not be able to carry out their primary function of lending money to customers because people will not be able to borrow at a higher rate, allowing the apex bank to mop up the excess liquidity in circulation, which will slow down inflation pressure.
“Prices are still going up. Theoretically, we see that inflation today is about 15.75 per cent but actually in the market, most prices have gone more than 50 per cent on the things we buy.
“[The] duty of the central bank is to maintain price stability, that’s everywhere in the world and to do that, looking at the way things are now, we expect that the central bank should be trying to curb inflation by doing what they call monetary policy contraction, trying to apply contractionary measures i.e trying to raise rate. When they raise the rate for example, what will happen is that there is so much rush for money market instruments, banks will not be able to lend out more money and people will not be able to borrow at a higher rate and, therefore, you mopped up the money in circulation and then slow down inflation pressure,” he said.
Commenting on the fact that MPC was confronted with a policy dilemma at the last meeting, he said, “well, it is just the option of sit down dey look, let’s just watch as things go, because the whole essence of monetary policy obviously is to manage the quantity of money in supply in the economy.
“The argument theoretically is that when there is so much money in circulation, there is a lot of money pursuing a few goods, therefore, driving prices up.
“So, the primary duty of central banks all over the world is to maintain monetary stability, ensuring that price increase in the economy does not go at hyper rate i.e. saying inflation like in Nigeria having double-digit and beyond, that’s what damages productivity.
“So, you find that the Central Bank of Nigeria is in a very big dilemma. Ordinarily, if you look at their objective of maintaining price stability, we are losing it.”
Expressing his belief on the measures, he said, “You know, that’s what we should be looking at right now. If they do that, trust me, it is going to be very counterproductive because already, the economy is in deep trouble with COVID-19 and all of that.
“So, at this point, no reasonable central bank will be looking at an increase in rate instead everywhere in the world, we are looking at monetary easing or what they call expansionary monetary policy, whereby rates are brought down to enable the real sense of economy to enable to borrow at a reasonable rate, drive production and be able to reverse as it is now and economy in recession.”
According to him while answering the question of what is driving inflation in Nigeria, the pressure on foreign exchange (FX) is the major cause and the fact that the country depends too much on foreign goods.
“[The] Nigerian economy is a very peculiar economy, many times it tends to work out most established economic theories and even practices.
“Elsewhere in the world, there are no major issues about inflation because domestic demand is at its lowest level, travels are restricted, the COVID-19 lockdown has left people with no jobs.
“Theoretically, people don’t have money to spend.
“Most economy especially western economies, you find that aggregate demand is actually on a decline and, therefore, purchases are not going up as it should be. So, inflation is actually low in those places unlike in Nigeria, the argument is different.
“The factors driving inflation in Nigeria is not demand-pull, it is not about you and I having so much money in our pocket, having greater command for commodities.
“So, what happens here is inflation flows really from FX pressure. We are not self-sustaining and we import practically everything we use. So, the pressure on our FX, input costs is huge.
“Our local manufacturers have to import there input materials which are now at the all-time rate and then the finished goods we also import that we use in domestic things like the furniture and office equipment are also coming at a much higher rate because of the devaluation and depreciation of our currency.
“What is causing this depreciation? Until we address the issue of continuous depreciation of our currency, inflation can never be dealt with.
‘That is why even at the time when all of us are not demanding much when domestic demand is so low, we still see inflation climbing up the roof particularly food inflation and similar factors.
