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Investment, Inflation and Economic Growth: The Relationship Amidst COVID-19 Pandemic

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Timi Olubiyi investing for inflation

By Timi Olubiyi, PhD

The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic so far has negatively affected the global economy and more severely developing nations of Africa particularly Nigeria.

The COVID-19 has been devastating in terms of the impact on Nigeria’s economy, businesses, and households and still not looking abated.

We have seen a troubling trend in the country in recent times, with, businesses and activities today facing increasing levels of competitive pressure and difficulties, coupled with persistent insecurity, and inflationary pressure where high price increases have continued in transportation, food cost, household needs, raw materials, pharmaceutical products, motor cars, vehicle spare parts, equipment, and in prices of services amongst others. The cost and price of virtually everything are much higher today, and it is because of inflation.

Inflation is not only a serious problem but also it has a disturbing effect on the economic life, political system, and society as a whole, it has a corrosive impact on all savings and investments.

Significantly, every price rise is affecting the cost of living and many citizens are likely to be further pushed below the poverty line due to this price increase.

So far in the year 2021 in Nigeria, we have seen a situation where the value of money continues to depreciate in terms of value, and the general price level of goods and services continues to spike and skyrocket.

The uncertainty in the country is rather high and this has continued to discourage investments and impede projections and business plans because with persistent inflation, businesses and households perform poorly, and expectedly more money is paid for the same goods and services thereby eroding a large chunk of disposable income of the populace.

In fact, one of the obvious issues facing the Nigerian economy today is inflation which is persistently a complex issue that government needs to tackle headlong.

It is important to note that one million naira (N1,000,000) today will not acquire the same value of investment, goods, and services in 10 years mainly due to this price increase. The fact is that it is bad for people to hold huge cash – or keep funds in current or savings accounts, which usually do not offer much of a return at this time.

Without a doubt, a continuous increase in the rate of inflation erodes the value of money, even slow down financial market development, infrastructure development and economic development in any clime. It also increases poverty, lowers purchasing power, increases unemployment surge, weakens currency, increases business risk and these are somewhat evident in the country already. It is well documented in the literature and practice that inflation if left unchecked or unattended can even lead to more inflation- hyperinflation.

However, investment is one of the important channels to curb the excessive impact of inflation in any economy therefore, regardless of current realities investment is key to hedge against the sharp inflation impact we are currently experiencing.

For individuals, investing for inflation means choosing assets that keep pace with rising prices. Therefore, it is imperative to consider investment at this time, it is more profitable to invest in other currencies, diversify investment portfolio internationally to include shares of big tech and companies with high dividend payments.

More importantly, inflation-protected investments such as real estate (property and land) with potential for higher growth can be considered. This is not the time for substantial investments in domestic equities and/or money market instruments unless the anticipated return is higher than the inflation rate which is hovering around 18.17% as at March 2021 relying on data from Nigerian Bureau of Statistics (NBC).

In addition, gold investing or Gold Shares Exchange Traded Fund(ETF), or professionally managed mutual funds with returns above the prevailing inflation rate can also be considered, all to mitigate the impact of inflation at this time.

The government on the other hand needs to provide a low inflationary environment, this can be achieved by improving on the ease of doing business and handling of the perennial challenges from incessant insecurity, inadequate infrastructure, the severe and irregular regulatory requirements, to a high sense of entitlement, high cost of running business, corruption and the current macroeconomic uncertainty among others in the country.

Currently, as a nation, Nigeria is losing its natural advantages to neighbouring countries because of these challenges and this development is disturbing. Sending very little hope of economic development and growth of foreign private investment which is made up of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPI), Foreign Direct Investment is often preferred as a means of boosting the economy and that it plays a positive role in the improvement of economic activities. Truthfully theirs an obvious linkage between FDI and economic growth, consequently the government of the day should make conscious efforts to provide a more enabling business environment and also issue incentives and policies to attract foreign private investment.

There are benefits foreign private investment can offer Nigeria which includes the transfer of innovative technology, higher productivity, capital injection, more revenue for government through taxes, enhancement of balance of payments ability, employment generation, diversification of the industrial base and expansion, and even the modernization of some existing infrastructure.

There is also a compelling need to support, and further consider the Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs) to improve manufacturing, production, and services to exportable level in the country.

By so doing, it will reduce the pressure on import-dependency and improve the country’s business climate and also play a significant role in export growth in the country.

Consequently, steps to attract more investments are key at this time and the Nigerian government can use this as one of the ways of boosting the economy and stem inflation. It is recommended that overreliance on imports should be reduced over the long term through aggressive export promotion and key SME development drives which when considered will improve the competitiveness of domestically produced goods. Good luck.

How may you obtain advice or further information on the article?

Dr Timi Olubiyi is an Entrepreneurship & Business Management expert with a PhD in Business Administration from Babcock University Nigeria. He is a prolific investment coach, seasoned scholar, Chartered Member of the Chartered Institute for Securities & Investment (CISI), and Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) registered capital market operator. He can be reached on the Twitter handle @drtimiolubiyi and via email: [email protected], for any questions, reactions, and comments.

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The Future of Payments: Key Trends to Watch in 2025

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Luke Kyohere

By Luke Kyohere

The global payments landscape is undergoing a rapid transformation. New technologies coupled with the rising demand for seamless, secure, and efficient transactions has spurred on an exciting new era of innovation and growth. With 2025 fast approaching, here are important trends that will shape the future of payments:

1. The rise of real-time payments

Until recently, real-time payments have been used in Africa for cross-border mobile money payments, but less so for traditional payments. We are seeing companies like Mastercard investing in this area, as well as central banks in Africa putting focus on this. 

2. Cashless payments will increase

In 2025, we will see the continued acceleration of cashless payments across Africa. B2B payments in particular will also increase. Digital payments began between individuals but are now becoming commonplace for larger corporate transactions. 

3. Digital currency will hit mainstream

In the cryptocurrency space, we will see an increase in the use of stablecoins like United States Digital Currency (USDC) and Tether (USDT) which are linked to US dollars. These will come to replace traditional cryptocurrencies as their price point is more stable. This year, many countries will begin preparing for Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), government-backed digital currencies which use blockchain. 

The increased uptake of digital currencies reflects the maturity of distributed ledger technology and improved API availability. 

4. Increased government oversight

As adoption of digital currencies will increase, governments will also put more focus into monitoring these flows. In particular, this will centre on companies and banks rather than individuals. The goal of this will be to control and occasionally curb runaway foreign exchange (FX) rates.

5. Business leaders buy into AI technology

In 2025, we will see many business leaders buying into AI through respected providers relying on well-researched platforms and huge data sets. Most companies don’t have the budget to invest in their own research and development in AI, so many are now opting to ‘buy’ into the technology rather than ‘build’ it themselves. Moreover, many businesses are concerned about the risks associated with data ownership and accuracy so buying software is another way to avoid this risk. 

6. Continued AI Adoption in Payments

In payments, the proliferation of AI will continue to improve user experience and increase security.  To detect fraud, AI is used to track patterns and payment flows in real-time. If unusual activity is detected, the technology can be used to flag or even block payments which may be fraudulent. 

When it comes to user experience, we will also see AI being used to improve the interface design of payment platforms. The technology will also increasingly be used for translation for international payment platforms.

7. Rise of Super Apps

To get more from their platforms, mobile network operators are building comprehensive service platforms, integrating multiple payment experiences into a single app. This reflects the shift of many users moving from text-based services to mobile apps. Rather than offering a single service, super apps are packing many other services into a single app. For example, apps which may have previously been used primarily for lending, now have options for saving and paying bills. 

8. Business strategy shift

Recent major technological changes will force business leaders to focus on much shorter prediction and reaction cycles. Because the rate of change has been unprecedented in the past year, this will force decision-makers to adapt quickly, be decisive and nimble. 

As the payments space evolves,  businesses, banks, and governments must continually embrace innovation, collaboration, and prioritise customer needs. These efforts build a more inclusive, secure, and efficient payment system that supports local to global economic growth – enabling true financial inclusion across borders.

Luke Kyohere is the Group Chief Product and Innovation Officer at Onafriq

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Ghana’s Democratic Triumph: A Call to Action for Nigeria’s 2027 Elections

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In a heartfelt statement released today, the Conference of Nigeria Political Parties (CNPP) has extended its warmest congratulations to Ghana’s President-Elect, emphasizing the importance of learning from Ghana’s recent electoral success as Nigeria gears up for its 2027 general elections.

In a statement signed by its Deputy National Publicity Secretary, Comrade James Ezema, the CNPP highlighted the need for Nigeria to reclaim its status as a leader in democratic governance in Africa.

“The recent victory of Ghana’s President-Elect is a testament to the maturity and resilience of Ghana’s democracy,” the CNPP stated. “As we celebrate this achievement, we must reflect on the lessons that Nigeria can learn from our West African neighbour.”

The CNPP’s message underscored the significance of free, fair, and credible elections, a standard that Ghana has set and one that Nigeria has previously achieved under former President Goodluck Jonathan in 2015. “It is high time for Nigeria to reclaim its position as a beacon of democracy in Africa,” the CNPP asserted, calling for a renewed commitment to the electoral process.

Central to CNPP’s message is the insistence that “the will of the people must be supreme in Nigeria’s electoral processes.” The umbrella body of all registered political parties and political associations in Nigeria CNPP emphasized the necessity of an electoral system that genuinely reflects the wishes of the Nigerian populace. “We must strive to create an environment where elections are free from manipulation, violence, and intimidation,” the CNPP urged, calling on the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to take decisive action to ensure the integrity of the electoral process.

The CNPP also expressed concern over premature declarations regarding the 2027 elections, stating, “It is disheartening to note that some individuals are already announcing that there is no vacancy in Aso Rock in 2027. This kind of statement not only undermines the democratic principles that our nation holds dear but also distracts from the pressing need for the current administration to earn the trust of the electorate.”

The CNPP viewed the upcoming elections as a pivotal moment for Nigeria. “The 2027 general elections present a unique opportunity for Nigeria to reclaim its position as a leader in democratic governance in Africa,” it remarked. The body called on all stakeholders — including the executive, legislature, judiciary, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), and civil society organisations — to collaborate in ensuring that elections are transparent, credible, and reflective of the will of the Nigerian people.

As the most populous African country prepares for the 2027 elections, the CNPP urged all Nigerians to remain vigilant and committed to democratic principles. “We must work together to ensure that our elections are free from violence, intimidation, and manipulation,” the statement stated, reaffirming the CNPP’s commitment to promoting a peaceful and credible electoral process.

In conclusion, the CNPP congratulated the President-Elect of Ghana and the Ghanaian people on their remarkable achievements.

“We look forward to learning from their experience and working together to strengthen democracy in our region,” the CNPP concluded.

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The Need to Promote Equality, Equity and Fairness in Nigeria’s Proposed Tax Reforms

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By Kenechukwu Aguolu

The proposed tax reform, involving four tax bills introduced by the Federal Government, has received significant criticism. Notably, it was rejected by the Governors’ Forum but was still forwarded to the National Assembly. Unlike the various bold economic decisions made by this government, concessions will likely need to be made on these tax reforms, which involve legislative amendments and therefore cannot be imposed by the executive. This article highlights the purposes of taxation, the qualities of a good tax system, and some of the implications of the proposed tax reforms.

One of the major purposes of taxation is to generate revenue for the government to finance its activities. A good tax system should raise sufficient revenue for the government to fund its operations, and support economic and infrastructural development. For any country to achieve meaningful progress, its tax-to-GDP ratio should be at least 15%. Currently, Nigeria’s tax-to-GDP ratio is less than 11%. The proposed tax reforms aim to increase this ratio to 18% within the next three years.

A good tax system should also promote income redistribution and equality by implementing progressive tax policies. In line with this, the proposed tax reforms favour low-income earners. For example, individuals earning less than one million naira annually are exempted from personal income tax. Additionally, essential goods and services such as food, accommodation, and transportation, which constitute a significant portion of household consumption for low- and middle-income groups, are to be exempted from VAT.

In addition to equality, a good tax system should ensure equity and fairness, a key area of contention surrounding the proposed reforms. If implemented, the amendments to the Value Added Tax could lead to a significant reduction in the federal allocation for some states; impairing their ability to finance government operations and development projects. The VAT amendments should be holistically revisited to promote fairness and national unity.

The establishment of a single agency to collect government taxes, the Nigeria Revenue Service, could reduce loopholes that have previously resulted in revenue losses, provided proper controls are put in place. It is logically easier to monitor revenue collection by one agency than by multiple agencies. However, this is not a magical solution. With automation, revenue collection can be seamless whether it is managed by one agency or several, as long as monitoring and accountability measures are implemented effectively.

The proposed tax reforms by the Federal Government are well-intentioned. However, all concerns raised by Nigerians should be looked into, and concessions should be made where necessary. Policies are more effective when they are adapted to suit the unique characteristics of a nation, rather than adopted wholesale. A good tax system should aim to raise sufficient revenue, ensure equitable income distribution, and promote equality, equity, and fairness.

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